Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”.

• Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance.

• Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability.

Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B.

• Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof.

• Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:14) Geopolitics

(02:17) Middle East

(04:39) Europe

(06:58) Asia

(07:10) United States

(09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:07) Economy

(13:22) Biorisk

(14:15) Nature and climate

(14:43) Miscellaneous

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First published:
February 16th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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