Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran.

• Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power.

• Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025.

• They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026.

• They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:33) Geopolitics

(02:36) Latin America

(09:35) Europe

(11:29) Middle East

(13:37) Asia

(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
January 5th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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