Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis.

• Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability.

• Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance.

• Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability.

• Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance.

Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Europe

(05:38) Middle East

(08:33) The Americas

(08:36) Latin America

(09:09) North America

(14:51) Asia

(16:26) Africa

(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

(20:12) Economy

(22:15) Biorisk

(22:43) Nature and climate

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First published:
January 26th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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