Executive summary

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Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites.

• 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land.

Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US.

• 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026.

• 83% (75% to 90%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:03) Geopolitics

(02:06) Europe

(03:41) Asia

(05:39) Middle East

(06:40) The Americas

(06:43) Latin America

(09:01) United States

(09:11) Africa

(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:56) Biorisk

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First published:
December 29th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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