Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks.

• Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%).

• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance.

Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form.

• What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance.

Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India.

• Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...]

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Outline:

(00:19) Executive summary

(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:22) Geopolitics

(09:24) Middle East

(11:18) Europe

(13:18) The Americas

(13:21) Latin America

(16:06) North America

(20:22) Asia

(21:22) Africa

(21:43) Biorisk

(23:07) Economy

(25:08) Nature and climate

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First published:
February 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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