Is the global calculus on Palestinian statehood beginning to shift?

I ask the question because in the last several days, France, the United Kingdom, and most latterly Canada have all announced plans to formally recognize the state of Palestine conditionally, and that would be at the General Assembly of the United Nations in September.

And this is a significant departure from years of sort of cautious Western diplomacy that largely deferred to US leadership on the Israeli Palestinian question.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is as I said, the latest CAB author particular ramp and says that the Canadians will recognize Palestine at the upcoming year in General Assembly, but only if the Palestinian authority holds elections, implements democratic reforms, and excludes hummus from any form of governance in the future.

Both the UK and France outlining similar prerequisites.

Donald Trump doesn't like it.

These ladies obviously don't like it.

James ker Lindsay is a senior research fellow at Kingston University and with US now via oom.

James, good afternoon, How do you how significant do you find the first Macron from France, then Starmer from the UK, and now Carney from Canada.

Thank you very much, John.

Yeah.

I mean it's interesting to see, hasn't it, Just the way that this seems to be moving very fast.

I mean, France got the ball rolling by saying that it was going to do it.

I mean, I think that the first point to really sort of stress is that in many ways it's not terribly significant.

And I mean that ensemble census.

I mean, we are at a stage where almost one hundred and fifty UN members already recognize Palestine.

So what we're really talking about is a collection of essentially Western countries that still haven't done so.

Obviously the United States is the most important of that, but you've got large chunks of the European Union, but also Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea.

These don't recognize a Palestinian state.

So the fact that you're now starting to see France, which let's remember is a permanent member of the Security Council, make this decision is significant in one sense, but again, as a say, in the greater picture, most of the world already recognizes Palestine.

But in another sense, you know, You've got to ask what will all this mean in real terms?

You know, how is this going to change any of the facts on the ground.

And on that I'm certainly a lot more skeptical.

Yes, many, many countries have already recognized some form of Palestinian statehood, but when they are Western countries, which you know, I'm not meaning to say that Western countries' views are more important than Southern Hemisphere countries or East Asian countries, whatever, but they have been they've been sort of holdouts in this, and between them they wield a fair amount one would think of diplomatic clout, and so one wonders if this is the addition of these three countries with their individual and collective weight, add that to the countries that have already and the damn breaks, and that this is the straw that allows the camel to get out of the gate.

To mix a metaphor, one could certainly look at it this way, but the reality will really come down to what this actually means.

Now, it's all very well and good saying we recognize a Palestinean state, but what does that mean?

I mean, there's several elements to it.

So recognition in international relations is about a sovereign state saying to another sovereign state, we recognize that you have a piece of territory that you control, and you have a right to control your internal affairs as you see fit I mean.

So that essentially is what it comes down to.

It's the way different members of the international community so that they accept each other.

But it also means then that you can state take formal steps to bolster that.

So it means you can set up diplomatic relations, you can start entering into treaties, you can even offer military supports.

So crucially the question is it's all very well France recognizing Palestine, but what is it actually going to do then to make sure that that Palestinian state really comes into existence?

And we have to accept that what we are seeing going on at Gaza in the moment when Gaza had been vacated by Israel after its occupation, but now has it's gone right back in it's under Israeli military control, there is a sense that Israel is pursuing a policy of ethnic claimsing, if not genocide.

Meanwhile, over in the West Bank you have the International Court of Justice, which in its ruling last year has said in no uncertain terms, that the policy of settlements in the West Bank amounts to creeping annexation, that in effect, the prospects for a two state solution, the prospects for an actual, real Palestinian state, are disappearing day by day.

So it's all very well for France, for Britain, for Canada to get up and say, yes, we're going to make this symbolic recognition, but what will it actually do in terms of taking forward Palestinian statehood as defined over thirty years ago under the Oslo Accord signed in nineteen ninety three.

What will it do to actually make that a real prospect long last, especially given that the Metan yahoo government has been about adamant that the two state solution is now dead at dead and buried and it has no intention of talking about.

The Thank you very much, indeed for those thoughts.

James Kerlindsey, Senior Research Fellow at Kingston University,