1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,418 This is what's scary about it. 2 00:00:01,418 --> 00:00:02,210 Whoa, whoa! 3 00:00:02,210 --> 00:00:03,962 Hold on. Stop! Stop! 4 00:00:03,962 --> 00:00:05,922 Jay, put those up again. 5 00:00:05,922 --> 00:00:08,800 What up your fricking guns, bro? 6 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,343 Look at that. 7 00:00:10,343 --> 00:00:12,679 If you give the, Oh, yeah. 8 00:00:12,679 --> 00:00:15,056 Jay's over there. Look at all time. 9 00:00:15,056 --> 00:00:16,599 Look at that crap. 10 00:00:16,599 --> 00:00:18,435 Oh, boy. 11 00:00:18,435 --> 00:00:19,102 It's so funny. 12 00:00:19,102 --> 00:00:22,480 I was actually on the spreadsheet, so I wasn't even watching myself, so. 13 00:00:22,689 --> 00:00:23,648 Yeah, bro. 14 00:00:23,648 --> 00:00:25,358 No looking good. Jay. 15 00:00:25,358 --> 00:00:26,901 The girls for the girls. 16 00:00:26,901 --> 00:00:29,446 My 15 year old drags me to the gym every day. 17 00:00:29,446 --> 00:00:31,448 It's showing, man. Yeah, as long as, like. 18 00:00:31,448 --> 00:00:32,782 As long as I stay chest up. 19 00:00:32,782 --> 00:00:35,785 I'm good. You. 20 00:00:42,625 --> 00:00:44,252 Welcome to Drunk Real Estate. 21 00:00:44,252 --> 00:00:46,296 [...] Grab a drink. 22 00:00:46,296 --> 00:00:48,465 Enjoy the show. 23 00:00:48,465 --> 00:00:48,882 Hey, there. 24 00:00:48,882 --> 00:00:51,885 Welcome to episode 105 of Drunk Real Estate. 25 00:00:51,885 --> 00:00:56,014 I am Kyle Wilson, Ashley Wilson's husband, and I'm joined with my co-host Jay, 26 00:00:56,056 --> 00:00:57,432 AJ and Mauricio. 27 00:00:57,432 --> 00:00:58,308 Welcome, gentlemen. 28 00:00:58,308 --> 00:01:01,186 Cheers to another episode. 29 00:01:01,186 --> 00:01:02,145 Oh, we really do. 30 00:01:02,145 --> 00:01:04,105 This is my. I don't like these prediction episodes. 31 00:01:04,105 --> 00:01:05,648 We're really going to do this. 32 00:01:05,648 --> 00:01:08,693 I mean, Jay's insist he literally called this out last episode. 33 00:01:08,693 --> 00:01:11,321 Said we are doing the predictions episode last week 34 00:01:11,321 --> 00:01:12,906 and I had this discussion with AJ. 35 00:01:12,906 --> 00:01:15,366 We were coming up here. AJ did a great job. 36 00:01:15,366 --> 00:01:19,537 He did a little AI summary of how we did last, last time with the predictions, 37 00:01:19,829 --> 00:01:22,832 but the problem is, if you go back and listen to our predictions episode, 38 00:01:23,333 --> 00:01:25,460 the predictions for were for the end of the year. 39 00:01:25,460 --> 00:01:26,920 So like what was the point? 40 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,715 Like, if we don't know right now, we could say like, who's winning? 41 00:01:30,715 --> 00:01:31,299 But we can't. 42 00:01:31,299 --> 00:01:33,760 Like there was actually no winners yet. 43 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,428 Well, we can always do new predictions. 44 00:01:35,428 --> 00:01:37,722 There's plenty of other things we can be predicting. 45 00:01:37,722 --> 00:01:42,310 We can talk about our, our current status and where things are headed. 46 00:01:42,310 --> 00:01:44,562 I mean, it's fun. People love these. 47 00:01:44,562 --> 00:01:44,896 You know what? 48 00:01:44,896 --> 00:01:48,483 We can predict again, last time I predicted that the Eagles would win 49 00:01:48,483 --> 00:01:50,902 the Super Bowl. How'd that work out, boys? 50 00:01:50,902 --> 00:01:52,737 I don't know which sport is that. 51 00:01:52,737 --> 00:01:54,739 That's like I'm predicting they're winning again. 52 00:01:54,739 --> 00:01:55,990 Back to back champs. 53 00:01:55,990 --> 00:01:58,326 I predict that I won't give a rat's ass about it. 54 00:01:58,326 --> 00:01:59,494 And I'll probably be right again. 55 00:02:00,537 --> 00:02:01,830 Well, let's get right into this, though. 56 00:02:01,830 --> 00:02:05,750 I will give updates on who's winning because, according to this, 57 00:02:05,750 --> 00:02:09,379 AJ was significantly winning so far in his predictions. 58 00:02:09,379 --> 00:02:11,714 I don't think I was that far behind. 59 00:02:11,714 --> 00:02:14,884 And then, Jay and then Mauricio was pulling up the rear. 60 00:02:14,926 --> 00:02:18,096 Mauricio was shouting from the rooftops, a recession, recession, and 61 00:02:18,304 --> 00:02:19,806 and all of his predictions were based on that. 62 00:02:19,806 --> 00:02:20,849 So let's start with that. 63 00:02:20,849 --> 00:02:24,018 Does anyone want to update their predictions on a recession this year? 64 00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:27,063 AJ and I both said no recession in 2025. 65 00:02:27,188 --> 00:02:29,482 Mauricio Jay both called for a recession. 66 00:02:29,482 --> 00:02:31,609 Jay, do you still think there's no recession this year? 67 00:02:31,609 --> 00:02:34,696 Well, it looks like by the time this episode comes out, 68 00:02:34,696 --> 00:02:37,866 we're going to see a strong Q2 GDP reading. 69 00:02:38,700 --> 00:02:41,828 So if we're using the two negative quarters of GDP 70 00:02:41,828 --> 00:02:44,831 as the, as the benchmark for a recession, 71 00:02:44,956 --> 00:02:49,002 I'd say it's unlikely because that would require both Q3 and Q4 to be negative. 72 00:02:49,002 --> 00:02:51,212 Not saying it couldn't happen, it could. But, 73 00:02:51,212 --> 00:02:55,425 we're already halfway through the year and and we've got a strong Q2 reading. 74 00:02:55,425 --> 00:02:56,009 It looks like. 75 00:02:56,009 --> 00:03:01,139 So I think the safe bet here is no, at least no technical recession. 76 00:03:01,139 --> 00:03:01,556 This year. 77 00:03:01,556 --> 00:03:07,145 But but but if the recession starts in Q4, it goes Q4 and then Q1, right. 78 00:03:07,145 --> 00:03:08,688 And then they decide the recession. 79 00:03:08,688 --> 00:03:11,357 They call the recessions in the middle of 2026, 80 00:03:11,357 --> 00:03:14,485 then the recession technically start in Q4 of 2025. 81 00:03:14,611 --> 00:03:17,322 If that's the case, then yeah, I'm sticking with mine. That's a good point. 82 00:03:17,322 --> 00:03:18,448 So thank you, Mauricio. 83 00:03:18,448 --> 00:03:19,782 I am sticking with my prediction 84 00:03:19,782 --> 00:03:23,912 that we will see a recession that starts either in Q3 or Q4. 85 00:03:23,912 --> 00:03:25,622 We may not know about it until next year. 86 00:03:25,622 --> 00:03:28,499 I hope I give you props. I thought you were going to pivot. 87 00:03:28,499 --> 00:03:31,211 I thought you were going to caveat like you always do and you didn't. 88 00:03:31,211 --> 00:03:32,295 So you stuck with it. 89 00:03:32,295 --> 00:03:32,879 All right. 90 00:03:32,879 --> 00:03:35,048 You're still at the moment you're losing. 91 00:03:35,048 --> 00:03:36,216 I'll just I'll just point that out. 92 00:03:36,216 --> 00:03:39,344 Mauricio, are you, are you sticking with it, too? 93 00:03:40,511 --> 00:03:42,805 Can I can I continuously, vehemently object 94 00:03:42,805 --> 00:03:45,850 to the format of the show, or are we moved on from that? 95 00:03:45,975 --> 00:03:46,893 We've moved on from that. 96 00:03:46,893 --> 00:03:48,228 There's no way we're going to do another 97 00:03:48,228 --> 00:03:51,231 because it's because I got a report card and I'm, like, stinking. 98 00:03:51,481 --> 00:03:55,568 So I'm just really down right now, and I don't know what to do at this point. 99 00:03:55,610 --> 00:03:58,279 I'm protesting. I might just go the complete opposite. 100 00:03:58,279 --> 00:03:59,322 I need to mix things up. 101 00:03:59,322 --> 00:04:02,533 So, so if my prediction was there was a recession 102 00:04:03,076 --> 00:04:04,410 by the I'm going to stick with it, though. 103 00:04:04,410 --> 00:04:06,871 I think there is going to be a recession by the end of the year. 104 00:04:06,871 --> 00:04:08,039 I'm sticking with my job. 105 00:04:08,039 --> 00:04:10,875 But look, let's be clear, we've been doing these these prediction 106 00:04:10,875 --> 00:04:13,836 episodes since mid 2023. 107 00:04:13,878 --> 00:04:16,506 And I think, Mauricio has called 108 00:04:16,506 --> 00:04:19,717 for a significant recession every single time. 109 00:04:19,717 --> 00:04:23,763 Like, may I have successfully call 23 of the last two recessions? 110 00:04:23,805 --> 00:04:25,223 I just want to make sure that we're on the same page. 111 00:04:25,223 --> 00:04:27,517 So for the record, AJ, I don't know about you, 112 00:04:27,517 --> 00:04:30,520 but I assume we're both sticking with no recession this year. 113 00:04:30,853 --> 00:04:31,813 Yes, sir. 114 00:04:31,813 --> 00:04:34,691 Where you are the Robert Kiyosaki of the group, 115 00:04:34,691 --> 00:04:36,818 we've gotten pretty good at kicking this can down the road. 116 00:04:36,818 --> 00:04:39,237 And with everything, everything going on, it's pretty easy for them. 117 00:04:39,237 --> 00:04:41,948 If if they start seeing the wheels fell off a little bit 118 00:04:41,948 --> 00:04:43,658 now, it might throw a wrench in there. 119 00:04:43,658 --> 00:04:47,078 If Powell is just keeping interest rates high just out of spite. 120 00:04:47,370 --> 00:04:50,915 But if he traditionally I would think if he starts to see any signs of 121 00:04:50,915 --> 00:04:54,043 of faltering, he's going to pound on that easy button. 122 00:04:55,044 --> 00:04:55,503 All right. 123 00:04:55,503 --> 00:04:58,881 Next the next one, everyone wants to know is, how many rate cuts. 124 00:04:58,881 --> 00:05:02,677 So the consensus we were all thinking there would be maybe like 2 125 00:05:02,677 --> 00:05:04,929 or 3 rate cuts. 126 00:05:04,929 --> 00:05:07,181 Now, I think two still on the table. 127 00:05:07,181 --> 00:05:08,349 Three is very unlikely. 128 00:05:08,349 --> 00:05:10,977 So, I'll go back to AJ. What? AJ, what do you think? 129 00:05:10,977 --> 00:05:14,605 Do you think we're going to see a couple of rate cuts? 319. 130 00:05:14,605 --> 00:05:16,858 What do you think. So two. 131 00:05:16,858 --> 00:05:17,525 So we're going to end up. 132 00:05:17,525 --> 00:05:20,528 So we're calling that 375 right Jay. 133 00:05:21,571 --> 00:05:25,700 So look I like the consensus here. 134 00:05:25,700 --> 00:05:28,745 So for those that are watching this on on 135 00:05:28,745 --> 00:05:31,748 YouTube, here is the, 136 00:05:32,165 --> 00:05:36,336 the basically investor sentiment and what the current market conditions, 137 00:05:37,086 --> 00:05:41,007 our current market predictions are for a rate cut the, over the rest of the year. 138 00:05:41,007 --> 00:05:44,052 So it's about 5.5% chance of no rate cut, 139 00:05:44,677 --> 00:05:48,681 28% chance of one cut, 44% chance of two cuts 140 00:05:48,973 --> 00:05:52,977 and a 22 over 22% chance of three cuts. 141 00:05:53,227 --> 00:05:55,813 And then there's a little bit of a chance of of the full point. 142 00:05:56,773 --> 00:05:59,692 So this is saying two cuts. 143 00:05:59,692 --> 00:06:01,235 I think we get at least one. 144 00:06:01,235 --> 00:06:03,279 I mean, if I'm going to call that there's going to be a recession 145 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,074 starting this year, I think I'd be crazy not to say that there's going to be. 146 00:06:06,074 --> 00:06:09,660 If you think there's a recession this year, then even calling two cuts is crazy. 147 00:06:09,660 --> 00:06:10,870 You're contradicting yourself. 148 00:06:10,870 --> 00:06:15,583 If if the recession starts in Q4 as as but that's not 149 00:06:15,875 --> 00:06:20,421 so the question would be, is a classified as a 2024 recession if it starts? 150 00:06:20,421 --> 00:06:22,632 Yeah. Well, yeah, that's what we just talked about. 151 00:06:22,632 --> 00:06:27,261 If we get Q4 in Q1 of next year as as negative GDP, 152 00:06:27,762 --> 00:06:30,306 technically that started in Q4. 153 00:06:30,306 --> 00:06:34,268 We just did well, we'll give him if it starts in the end of 2025 154 00:06:34,685 --> 00:06:37,313 and we know don't notice it till 2026. 155 00:06:37,313 --> 00:06:40,066 You and I will come on the podcast and will 156 00:06:40,066 --> 00:06:43,903 we will give a PSA saying Jay and Mauricio 157 00:06:43,903 --> 00:06:48,366 were retroactively we're apologizing and saying partly right. Yes, 158 00:06:49,409 --> 00:06:50,076 partly. 159 00:06:50,076 --> 00:06:50,785 Okay. 160 00:06:50,785 --> 00:06:53,287 Also, what's your final answer at Jay once again with these answers? 161 00:06:53,287 --> 00:06:54,372 Oh, we could be this. 162 00:06:54,372 --> 00:06:57,125 It could be that. Oh yeah. They just give us an answer. 163 00:06:57,125 --> 00:06:58,960 Half point. Half point. 164 00:06:58,960 --> 00:06:59,710 All right. 165 00:06:59,710 --> 00:07:03,005 Same famous AJ Mauricio, are we calling percentages or we call it. 166 00:07:03,005 --> 00:07:06,175 How many cuts do I mean if one cuts we're assuming it cuts a quarter point. 167 00:07:06,175 --> 00:07:07,802 So I mean wow. 168 00:07:07,802 --> 00:07:09,137 Oh I don't know. 169 00:07:09,137 --> 00:07:11,931 Oh you can do whatever you want Mauricio. 170 00:07:11,931 --> 00:07:13,933 Both of them are saying 50 bips. 171 00:07:13,933 --> 00:07:14,809 Look, I'm. 172 00:07:14,809 --> 00:07:15,893 Is it my turn or am I? 173 00:07:15,893 --> 00:07:17,812 I mean, I might as well go, right? 174 00:07:17,812 --> 00:07:19,605 I mean, you know, I've been such a success. 175 00:07:19,605 --> 00:07:21,858 I'm going to I'm going to go a little bit against 176 00:07:21,858 --> 00:07:24,735 I'm going to go on a limb on here because I do think that, 177 00:07:24,735 --> 00:07:26,112 yeah, I know it's another question coming up. 178 00:07:26,112 --> 00:07:28,489 I do think that with the tariffs coming through 179 00:07:28,489 --> 00:07:29,657 you're going to see some inflation. 180 00:07:29,657 --> 00:07:31,325 I think you see some inflationary numbers 181 00:07:31,325 --> 00:07:33,661 as the terrorists make it through the system. 182 00:07:33,661 --> 00:07:38,040 So I'm going to predict no rate cuts this year because yeah. 183 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,169 If you got inflation the and not that Powell wants to do Trump 184 00:07:41,169 --> 00:07:42,920 any favors either. He's out the door anyway. 185 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,465 But not that he's you know not that he's influenced by that. 186 00:07:45,465 --> 00:07:49,510 But if you've got inflation numbers popping back up, which I think they are, 187 00:07:49,719 --> 00:07:52,722 then I think there's a good chance you'll see zero rate cuts. 188 00:07:52,722 --> 00:07:55,725 So you think recession but no rate cuts. Yes. 189 00:07:55,933 --> 00:07:58,478 And and huge inflation and ratios. 190 00:07:58,478 --> 00:08:02,482 I think Mauricio at one point was calling for 9% inflation by the end of this year. 191 00:08:02,482 --> 00:08:04,984 So now by the end of the decade that's a lot. 192 00:08:04,984 --> 00:08:06,027 That's a lot. 193 00:08:06,027 --> 00:08:08,779 In his defense, that was that was the end by the end of the decade. 194 00:08:08,779 --> 00:08:09,739 That's a lock. 195 00:08:09,739 --> 00:08:12,116 That's a that's a mortal lock. 196 00:08:12,116 --> 00:08:14,911 Jeez I like I now that I know we're ranking 197 00:08:14,911 --> 00:08:18,039 this, I do think it's most likely that we're only seeing 50 bips. 198 00:08:19,248 --> 00:08:22,668 So but at the same time, I feel like someone's 199 00:08:22,668 --> 00:08:25,421 got to take the other side of it. You Mauricio saying zero. 200 00:08:25,421 --> 00:08:26,589 You guys are just saying 201 00:08:26,589 --> 00:08:29,550 right along, toeing the company line with with with two. 202 00:08:29,550 --> 00:08:31,511 I'll go three. I'll take three. 203 00:08:31,511 --> 00:08:36,265 I think inflation is much less of a problem than we think it is. 204 00:08:36,265 --> 00:08:37,725 I was looking at a little bit more data. 205 00:08:37,725 --> 00:08:39,727 And if you take out like owner's equivalent rent, 206 00:08:39,727 --> 00:08:43,481 which I think is it has to go down like I, I know it's a bull. 207 00:08:44,190 --> 00:08:46,692 That's a vast majority of all inflation. 208 00:08:46,692 --> 00:08:48,236 Right. All of the inflation right now. 209 00:08:48,236 --> 00:08:51,030 Like it'd be like one point something, 1.3 or something 210 00:08:51,030 --> 00:08:55,117 if you take out a owner's equivalent rent and like that has to go down 211 00:08:55,117 --> 00:08:58,120 like they're like, I know it's just survey based, but 212 00:08:58,287 --> 00:09:00,915 like all the data I'm seeing that's going, that's going down. 213 00:09:00,915 --> 00:09:02,041 So if you take that away, 214 00:09:02,041 --> 00:09:06,003 we've got a long run up before we're getting into inflation being a problem. 215 00:09:06,003 --> 00:09:08,381 So I will take three. 216 00:09:08,381 --> 00:09:11,884 I think there'll be some softness in jobs and they will you know 217 00:09:12,343 --> 00:09:13,302 they'll go September. 218 00:09:13,302 --> 00:09:16,305 So it will be at September the next three starting in September. 219 00:09:16,389 --> 00:09:20,434 And keep in mind all it would take is, is a really bad employment 220 00:09:20,434 --> 00:09:24,146 reading or some other, some other major event, 221 00:09:24,897 --> 00:09:27,608 that leads the fed to cut a half point at one meeting 222 00:09:27,608 --> 00:09:29,694 or even three quarters of a point one meeting. 223 00:09:29,694 --> 00:09:32,905 And so it doesn't necessarily have to be I don't think we're going to see 224 00:09:33,197 --> 00:09:35,032 three quarter point cuts, 225 00:09:35,032 --> 00:09:38,703 but I wouldn't rule out a half point cut and a quarter point, or 226 00:09:38,744 --> 00:09:40,830 even if there's some major event, wait, wait a minute. 227 00:09:40,830 --> 00:09:41,998 And that's an area you guys lose. 228 00:09:41,998 --> 00:09:45,626 If you're calling for three rate cuts and is only one rate up for 75 bibs, 229 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,795 I'm calling 75 Bips. 230 00:09:47,795 --> 00:09:50,423 That's what the that's what my guess is 75. 231 00:09:50,423 --> 00:09:53,259 I don't have to say how Mauricio just wants to argue. 232 00:09:53,259 --> 00:09:53,801 Yeah. 233 00:09:53,801 --> 00:09:55,469 He just he knows he's going to lose. 234 00:09:55,469 --> 00:09:57,847 So he just wants to have no one win. 235 00:09:57,847 --> 00:09:59,974 Oh, we got to go with it. I want to go to inflation next. 236 00:09:59,974 --> 00:10:01,392 But AJ hasn't answered. Right. 237 00:10:01,392 --> 00:10:04,895 Well so no the agent didn't AJ the answer he was first. 238 00:10:05,146 --> 00:10:07,523 He said 5050 and 50 for AJ Scott. 239 00:10:07,523 --> 00:10:11,444 This is for the I 5052 cuts for AJ. 240 00:10:11,444 --> 00:10:14,322 Clarify two cuts or 50 bibs. What are you what are you going with. 241 00:10:14,322 --> 00:10:15,615 How many bibs. 242 00:10:15,615 --> 00:10:17,825 Oh man that's I, 243 00:10:18,993 --> 00:10:20,661 I want to say 75. 244 00:10:20,661 --> 00:10:22,747 Oh he's going with me okay. 245 00:10:22,747 --> 00:10:25,750 Can I go back to 50. 246 00:10:26,459 --> 00:10:27,543 Like. 247 00:10:27,543 --> 00:10:28,502 All right, let's move on. 248 00:10:28,502 --> 00:10:30,546 We're we're teetering too much. 249 00:10:30,546 --> 00:10:31,589 We got a lot to go through. 250 00:10:31,589 --> 00:10:35,217 And so if we know what rates are going to be the next logical thing 251 00:10:35,217 --> 00:10:36,594 was let's go with mortgage rates. 252 00:10:36,594 --> 00:10:40,598 Where do we think mortgage rates are going to be somehow the I thought Jay 253 00:10:40,598 --> 00:10:44,769 was leading this but he's still mortgage rates are like six seven. 254 00:10:44,769 --> 00:10:46,479 And Jay still thought six. 255 00:10:46,479 --> 00:10:48,606 We we thought it was like mid high five. 256 00:10:48,606 --> 00:10:51,609 So he's just the the best of the worst. 257 00:10:51,609 --> 00:10:53,527 None of us are really winning this at the point. 258 00:10:53,527 --> 00:10:56,947 But I'll since you are technically in the lead Jay I'll go with you first. 259 00:10:56,947 --> 00:10:59,325 What do you think mortgage rates are going to be at the end of the year? 260 00:10:59,325 --> 00:11:01,494 I originally said six. 261 00:11:01,494 --> 00:11:02,620 I think we're above six. 262 00:11:02,620 --> 00:11:05,373 I don't think we're getting if we get a half point cut, 263 00:11:05,373 --> 00:11:07,750 I don't think we're getting a half point drop in mortgage rates. 264 00:11:07,750 --> 00:11:11,462 So I'm going to say somewhere above 6.5. 265 00:11:12,338 --> 00:11:14,465 I know I said six earlier this year, but 266 00:11:14,465 --> 00:11:17,468 I'm going to go with six five by the end of the year. 267 00:11:17,635 --> 00:11:19,929 Mauricio, what do you got? Where are we. Right. 268 00:11:19,929 --> 00:11:20,680 Where are we today? 269 00:11:20,680 --> 00:11:24,266 Because I was originally saying between 5 and 6, which were higher I guess. What 270 00:11:25,267 --> 00:11:30,106 66966816 actually 681 as of this morning. Man. 271 00:11:30,106 --> 00:11:32,608 Because when we did these predictions that we were all talking, we were talking. 272 00:11:32,608 --> 00:11:35,611 I thought it was gonna be higher at 5 to 6%. 273 00:11:35,778 --> 00:11:38,280 So what was it when we predicted last time it was seven? 274 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,242 I think at the beginning of the year basically hasn't moved, hasn't moved much. 275 00:11:41,242 --> 00:11:43,119 So this spreadsheet just isn't very accurate 276 00:11:43,119 --> 00:11:45,788 as most things that Jay puts together, I know skip me. 277 00:11:45,788 --> 00:11:46,622 I got to think through this. 278 00:11:46,622 --> 00:11:50,084 I was gonna I got thrown off by this five six AJ 279 00:11:50,376 --> 00:11:53,045 yeah, I'm going to go with six. 280 00:11:53,045 --> 00:11:56,590 Yeah, I, I agree, I think it'll be in the I think it'll be under six. 281 00:11:56,590 --> 00:11:59,969 But I found with these things it's like they become very rangebound. 282 00:11:59,969 --> 00:12:01,512 Right. So we'll see. 283 00:12:01,512 --> 00:12:02,346 We'll see it drop. 284 00:12:02,346 --> 00:12:06,851 But then like once it hits six then it's going to kind of just bounce around there. 285 00:12:06,851 --> 00:12:11,105 So that's I'm going with you AJ right around six Mauricio you were up to 286 00:12:11,105 --> 00:12:12,148 you now. 287 00:12:12,148 --> 00:12:15,818 So so Mauricio I just found it on on another part of the script 27 nine. 288 00:12:16,068 --> 00:12:19,238 It was 6.75 or 6.95 289 00:12:19,697 --> 00:12:22,616 back in January when we made the the last predictions. 290 00:12:22,616 --> 00:12:24,493 It's it's about 6.8 right now. 291 00:12:24,493 --> 00:12:26,620 I mean, because it's all based on the ten year. Right. 292 00:12:26,620 --> 00:12:29,790 And so the ten year I think if if inflation is 293 00:12:30,583 --> 00:12:33,627 this the inflation on the top, but assuming inflation comes through then 294 00:12:33,627 --> 00:12:36,338 more people are going to be apt to not invest in treasuries 295 00:12:36,338 --> 00:12:39,633 and actually go buy a little bit more riskier assets, which means 296 00:12:39,633 --> 00:12:42,636 they're selling treasuries, which means the ten year is going up, 297 00:12:42,762 --> 00:12:44,346 which means mortgage rates are going to go up. 298 00:12:44,346 --> 00:12:45,848 So, Mauricio, you've been hanging out 299 00:12:45,848 --> 00:12:49,602 with Jay too often with this response just to, oh, here we go. 300 00:12:49,602 --> 00:12:50,227 Give us an answer. 301 00:12:53,105 --> 00:12:55,566 I'm going to say roughly the same same as today 302 00:12:55,566 --> 00:12:57,943 or same as what you said back in Vegas today. 303 00:12:57,943 --> 00:12:58,861 That's not a bad guess. 304 00:12:58,861 --> 00:13:00,613 I don't I that's this. 305 00:13:00,613 --> 00:13:01,822 I think it's a good guess. 306 00:13:01,822 --> 00:13:04,450 This ten year treasury has been annoyingly sticky. 307 00:13:04,450 --> 00:13:07,453 All right, so next, 308 00:13:07,661 --> 00:13:08,204 where do you want to go? 309 00:13:08,204 --> 00:13:09,663 Let's go back to our old ones. 310 00:13:09,663 --> 00:13:11,457 Let's go. Real estate. Worse than best. 311 00:13:11,457 --> 00:13:13,709 Like we were. 312 00:13:13,709 --> 00:13:15,669 We're on, economics. 313 00:13:15,669 --> 00:13:16,420 You want to do inflation? 314 00:13:16,420 --> 00:13:18,047 All right, let's stick with inflation. 315 00:13:18,047 --> 00:13:19,507 Inflation? 316 00:13:19,507 --> 00:13:21,175 I actually we should go with more inflation 317 00:13:21,175 --> 00:13:24,637 because I kind of bang on right now winning this. 318 00:13:25,387 --> 00:13:27,848 A couple of us are were actually pretty close to me. 319 00:13:27,848 --> 00:13:30,851 And Jay, I think it looks like we were both pretty close. 320 00:13:31,393 --> 00:13:33,729 Some ratio. You got to redeem yourself here. 321 00:13:33,729 --> 00:13:36,065 I'll let you go first. You weren't ready last time. 322 00:13:36,065 --> 00:13:37,900 Where do you think the inflation is going to be at the end of the year? 323 00:13:37,900 --> 00:13:40,444 And we're talking we're talking core PC, 324 00:13:40,444 --> 00:13:42,822 I think is what we settled on in the beginning of the year. 325 00:13:42,822 --> 00:13:44,198 I'm going to channel my energy. 326 00:13:44,198 --> 00:13:47,201 I mean, the challenge is I do think inflation is coming. 327 00:13:47,201 --> 00:13:48,786 The question, is it going to permeate 328 00:13:48,786 --> 00:13:50,704 through the economy within the next six months? 329 00:13:50,704 --> 00:13:52,873 You know, these things take a while. There's a lag effect. Right. 330 00:13:52,873 --> 00:13:56,794 So I do think that the tariffs I, I disagree with AJ here where I think 331 00:13:56,794 --> 00:14:00,381 the tariffs will eventually make its way through the economy. 332 00:14:01,048 --> 00:14:04,718 You'll see, you know, construction costs going higher because all of the 333 00:14:04,718 --> 00:14:06,595 the base materials will be going higher. 334 00:14:06,595 --> 00:14:09,014 So I do expect inflation to go higher. 335 00:14:09,014 --> 00:14:10,516 But will that happen in the next six months? 336 00:14:10,516 --> 00:14:11,267 I don't know, 337 00:14:11,267 --> 00:14:15,729 but what do you disagree with me on that the tariffs will not result in inflation. 338 00:14:15,729 --> 00:14:16,730 I didn't say that. 339 00:14:16,730 --> 00:14:20,442 I said they haven't yet in the last episode, not that they wanted. 340 00:14:20,526 --> 00:14:23,654 My predictions were that they would getting a little soft. 341 00:14:23,654 --> 00:14:25,281 The already I like it. 342 00:14:25,281 --> 00:14:28,826 Mauricio, what do you got I think I think Jay's backpedaling a little bit on this. 343 00:14:28,826 --> 00:14:29,535 I'm not I'm not sure. 344 00:14:29,535 --> 00:14:31,954 He was very adamant that, tariff was the number. 345 00:14:31,954 --> 00:14:35,291 Mauricio, I don't know what the core CPK is right now. 346 00:14:35,291 --> 00:14:37,293 Two seven, two seven. It'll be two eight 347 00:14:38,711 --> 00:14:40,588 thick. 348 00:14:40,588 --> 00:14:42,256 Jay, what do you got? 349 00:14:42,256 --> 00:14:45,759 So, I mean, it's a lot of just 350 00:14:45,968 --> 00:14:48,971 personal anecdotes that we're hearing. 351 00:14:49,597 --> 00:14:52,558 But I'm starting to hear a lot about Walmart raising prices. 352 00:14:52,558 --> 00:14:56,562 Procter and gamble came out today and said they're raising prices on 25% of their, 353 00:14:57,354 --> 00:15:01,275 their, their product lines because of tariffs, cars. 354 00:15:01,275 --> 00:15:06,155 And, and I think it was Ford that said, there's no way they can maintain, 355 00:15:06,989 --> 00:15:09,742 their level of pricing and they're going to have to raise prices. 356 00:15:09,742 --> 00:15:12,578 It's feels like it's starting to to seep through 357 00:15:12,578 --> 00:15:14,705 when we're starting to feel like the price is coming up. 358 00:15:14,705 --> 00:15:18,959 And now that we are starting to see some, trade deals being announced, 359 00:15:18,959 --> 00:15:22,588 and it looks like they're resulting in not zero zero tariffs, 360 00:15:23,297 --> 00:15:26,675 it looks like they're resulting in a continued 15% tariff. 361 00:15:27,426 --> 00:15:31,555 Coming into the U.S, I don't see how we avoid inflation. 362 00:15:31,639 --> 00:15:35,100 So I think well I do you said there's going to be a recession. 363 00:15:35,351 --> 00:15:37,978 I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. 364 00:15:37,978 --> 00:15:39,605 But but they can. 365 00:15:39,605 --> 00:15:42,399 You're saying that how they can't like it's, you know, 366 00:15:42,399 --> 00:15:47,112 a recession could lead to, you know, less inflation demand. 367 00:15:47,738 --> 00:15:50,282 And if there's inflation, why are they dropping rates? 368 00:15:50,282 --> 00:15:53,202 Well, that's the fed could be in a really tough situation 369 00:15:53,202 --> 00:15:55,329 where they have to decide, do we want to fight inflation 370 00:15:55,329 --> 00:15:57,039 or do we want to fight recession. 371 00:15:57,039 --> 00:15:58,248 And we can have this discussion. 372 00:15:58,248 --> 00:16:00,668 I mean if that happens what does the fed do. 373 00:16:00,668 --> 00:16:02,711 Do they do they fight inflation and raise rates? 374 00:16:02,711 --> 00:16:05,255 Do they fight recession in lower rates or do they? 375 00:16:05,255 --> 00:16:07,758 I think they've been very clear they're not lowering rates. 376 00:16:07,758 --> 00:16:10,719 So so Jay, what do you, what do you call calling? 377 00:16:10,719 --> 00:16:11,887 I think we're going higher. 378 00:16:11,887 --> 00:16:15,015 I'm going to I'm going to go with what did I say last time? 379 00:16:15,015 --> 00:16:18,894 I'm going to go with 3.53 and a half. Wow. 380 00:16:18,894 --> 00:16:22,773 So, Adrian, next time you run this through, I just look put. 381 00:16:22,773 --> 00:16:26,694 Ask how many of Jay's predictions contradict each other. 382 00:16:26,986 --> 00:16:27,987 That'll be an interesting 383 00:16:27,987 --> 00:16:31,740 I said, I said, I said 3.2 by the end of the by the end of the year. 384 00:16:31,740 --> 00:16:33,325 So now I'm saying 3.5. 385 00:16:33,325 --> 00:16:35,995 And Jay, you mentioned the terrorist, the 15% terrorist. 386 00:16:35,995 --> 00:16:38,956 Some of these are, you know, like aluminum and steel. These are like 50%. 387 00:16:38,956 --> 00:16:42,167 So like prices of aluminum, steel and copper is going through the roof. 388 00:16:42,167 --> 00:16:44,628 Like that's another one that that just got announced a couple weeks ago. 389 00:16:44,628 --> 00:16:48,424 So if you have these raw materials, base metals going higher again, 390 00:16:48,424 --> 00:16:50,050 it takes a while to permeate. 391 00:16:50,050 --> 00:16:51,260 So I don't if it's gonna happen by the end of the year. 392 00:16:51,260 --> 00:16:52,720 But that's definitely inflationary. 393 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,348 All right AJ round us out here I'm sticking I'm not changing I'm 394 00:16:56,348 --> 00:16:59,393 like as of right now I'm out of all of them. 395 00:16:59,393 --> 00:17:02,271 I only missed two so far this year. 396 00:17:02,271 --> 00:17:04,690 Up till now I'm sticking with 3% 397 00:17:04,690 --> 00:17:07,693 I think inflation's persistent I don't think it's going anywhere. 398 00:17:08,569 --> 00:17:11,572 I've been saying that nonstop and I'm sticking to it. 399 00:17:11,655 --> 00:17:15,743 Okay, well, so Morrissey has come to the dark side with me too. 400 00:17:16,410 --> 00:17:18,495 I was the only one who was sub three last time. 401 00:17:18,495 --> 00:17:20,831 It looks like now that I'm looking at the proper sheet 402 00:17:20,831 --> 00:17:22,416 and I'm going to say sub three again. 403 00:17:22,416 --> 00:17:25,627 So I'm going to say it's it, it might bounce up close to three 404 00:17:25,627 --> 00:17:27,880 but I don't I think we're still finishing sub three. 405 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,008 As I said I think we have a lot of things working against. 406 00:17:31,008 --> 00:17:34,428 And I think that owns owner's equivalent rent, which is a huge portion of it. 407 00:17:34,428 --> 00:17:35,095 It's coming down. 408 00:17:36,221 --> 00:17:39,224 So it's going to take a lot for us to go over that. 409 00:17:39,266 --> 00:17:39,641 All right. 410 00:17:39,641 --> 00:17:42,644 Do we want to go with, 411 00:17:43,270 --> 00:17:45,230 let's go with real estate back into real estate. 412 00:17:45,230 --> 00:17:46,815 Best performing asset class. 413 00:17:46,815 --> 00:17:49,777 Just an update. I still, I said multifamily. 414 00:17:49,985 --> 00:17:52,529 That hasn't popped yet. 415 00:17:52,529 --> 00:17:56,950 AJ industrial Mauricio multifamily and Jay said data centers. 416 00:17:56,950 --> 00:17:59,787 So we, anybody updating that stuff for us? 417 00:17:59,787 --> 00:18:04,208 Yeah I've actually been doing quite a few data centers, and, I like that a lot. 418 00:18:05,084 --> 00:18:06,835 I don't know how you actually, you know, measure that. 419 00:18:06,835 --> 00:18:10,172 I know how you measure that or, you know, in terms of if you talk 420 00:18:10,172 --> 00:18:13,300 about the actual data racks, talk about the like a warehouse building. 421 00:18:13,300 --> 00:18:16,011 But, I like that. Jay, are you going to stick with yours? 422 00:18:16,011 --> 00:18:17,971 I am, I am. How are you measuring that? 423 00:18:19,181 --> 00:18:20,265 I don't know. 424 00:18:20,265 --> 00:18:23,769 I think, again, a lot of it is it's hard to do empirical 425 00:18:24,436 --> 00:18:26,355 under industrial with mine. 426 00:18:26,355 --> 00:18:29,525 Yeah, it goes under industrial. Industrial. 427 00:18:29,525 --> 00:18:33,612 But there are some segments and, you can find the data. 428 00:18:33,612 --> 00:18:36,615 But so far, data centers have been doing tremendously well this year. 429 00:18:37,241 --> 00:18:39,243 Yeah. I'm going to change my the data centers. 430 00:18:39,243 --> 00:18:42,371 If we could do subsectors I would like to do 431 00:18:42,621 --> 00:18:45,624 climate controlled storage and first year markets. 432 00:18:45,624 --> 00:18:47,835 I could break that down. 433 00:18:47,835 --> 00:18:50,671 Like we're going to start to break down individual asset classes. 434 00:18:50,671 --> 00:18:54,466 But I want to going to like climate change, climate and climate controlled, 435 00:18:54,466 --> 00:18:56,468 second controlled first year markets, 436 00:18:56,468 --> 00:19:00,556 but only first year markets that are growing at 3%. 437 00:19:00,806 --> 00:19:03,433 Well, it's it's it's so funny when you think about 438 00:19:03,433 --> 00:19:06,395 and I know this is all this this is all old hat to AJ. 439 00:19:06,395 --> 00:19:08,438 He knows this like obviously. 440 00:19:08,438 --> 00:19:12,609 But you don't realize necessarily that, that 441 00:19:13,026 --> 00:19:15,779 when it comes to self storage that there are a lot of 442 00:19:16,989 --> 00:19:19,199 different types of self storage. 443 00:19:19,199 --> 00:19:20,534 I mean, you got the value add, 444 00:19:20,534 --> 00:19:24,371 you got the new build, you got the crappy old like tin can type stuff. 445 00:19:24,580 --> 00:19:28,876 You've got the multistory stuff and the performance is wildly different. 446 00:19:28,959 --> 00:19:31,628 Yeah. Maybe we'll do an episode I it's not a bad idea. 447 00:19:31,628 --> 00:19:33,172 We should probably do an episode 448 00:19:33,172 --> 00:19:37,342 on self storage at some point, because I think that could be man cribs. 449 00:19:37,342 --> 00:19:41,805 You have condos, you have like I mean, obviously the different types 450 00:19:41,805 --> 00:19:45,392 you have contractors you have like it's wild. 451 00:19:45,684 --> 00:19:45,976 Yeah. 452 00:19:45,976 --> 00:19:48,937 And I suspect that it a lot of it is going to impact 453 00:19:48,937 --> 00:19:53,650 like whether you can retrofit existing stuff into into self storage. 454 00:19:53,650 --> 00:19:57,696 It seems like everybody talks about retrofitting office and malls 455 00:19:57,696 --> 00:19:59,198 and stuff into multifamily, 456 00:19:59,198 --> 00:20:01,867 but it feels like it's a lot easier to retrofit into self storage 457 00:20:01,867 --> 00:20:04,036 because self storage comes in so many different flavors. 458 00:20:04,036 --> 00:20:06,246 But that's a different episode. 459 00:20:06,246 --> 00:20:09,458 Like, you don't have to change the plumbing on office for like, like, 460 00:20:09,750 --> 00:20:10,542 multifamily. 461 00:20:10,542 --> 00:20:12,502 You know, a lot of that off Space Camp. 462 00:20:12,502 --> 00:20:13,921 How is it we don't have to do that? Awesome. 463 00:20:13,921 --> 00:20:17,132 For the record, I like to when I'm measuring commercial 464 00:20:17,132 --> 00:20:20,135 and how they're doing, I like to use green Street. 465 00:20:20,135 --> 00:20:23,680 They have something that they publish called the CPI index. 466 00:20:24,806 --> 00:20:26,350 And unfortunately, 467 00:20:26,350 --> 00:20:28,894 you could kind of look at the graph and if you dive into the data, 468 00:20:28,894 --> 00:20:30,354 you could figure out what the last ones, 469 00:20:30,354 --> 00:20:34,233 but it does give you the like the past month, the past 12 months. 470 00:20:34,608 --> 00:20:37,611 And so if we go past 12 months, 471 00:20:37,945 --> 00:20:40,781 then actually the best performing, you won't even guess. 472 00:20:40,781 --> 00:20:45,285 This has been malls up 9% in the past 12 months for, 473 00:20:46,453 --> 00:20:47,663 as far as commercial 474 00:20:47,663 --> 00:20:51,583 self-storage is down 3%, but that's that could be picking back up. 475 00:20:51,583 --> 00:20:55,504 But the loser is lodging is down 6%. So, 476 00:20:57,214 --> 00:21:00,342 that'll be interesting as I'm curious what they mean by malls. 477 00:21:00,342 --> 00:21:03,303 Like, are people actually buying and selling malls 478 00:21:03,303 --> 00:21:07,266 at higher valuations or like, what does that mean, that mall? 479 00:21:07,266 --> 00:21:10,310 I think if you go back and look at the history with the malls, 480 00:21:10,310 --> 00:21:13,605 the thing is the malls were kind of ahead of the curve 481 00:21:13,605 --> 00:21:16,733 in terms of dying, right? 482 00:21:16,733 --> 00:21:19,653 Like, it was malls were the first things to go. 483 00:21:19,653 --> 00:21:23,073 And so they're at a different point in the cycle. 484 00:21:23,073 --> 00:21:25,158 So I just think maybe that's why they've really 485 00:21:25,158 --> 00:21:27,077 they've already thinned out the herd. 486 00:21:27,077 --> 00:21:29,288 And now it's just the strongest surviving. 487 00:21:29,288 --> 00:21:30,706 And so they're they're 488 00:21:30,706 --> 00:21:33,458 there's only ten left, but they're all doing exactly, exactly. 489 00:21:34,459 --> 00:21:37,546 So I'm hopeful that apartments are going to keep coming back. 490 00:21:37,546 --> 00:21:38,797 I don't know, but my prediction 491 00:21:38,797 --> 00:21:42,509 apartments are up 4% in the last, but it's at the same point. 492 00:21:42,509 --> 00:21:45,804 I'm seeing a lot of data with the apartments, being 493 00:21:46,930 --> 00:21:51,226 the supply is really trailing off, and it's just whether that's 494 00:21:51,226 --> 00:21:54,855 going to hit back end of 2025 or it's going to have to push to 2026. 495 00:21:55,772 --> 00:21:58,900 But I will stick with apartments, maybe wish casting a little bit there. 496 00:21:59,693 --> 00:22:04,239 As far as worst performing asset class, if we go through, 497 00:22:05,282 --> 00:22:08,285 office obviously was the winner. 498 00:22:08,702 --> 00:22:09,619 Single family. 499 00:22:09,619 --> 00:22:11,079 Mauricio said. 500 00:22:11,079 --> 00:22:13,165 We still haven't seen that yet, but there has been 501 00:22:13,165 --> 00:22:14,624 quite a bit of softening some resale. 502 00:22:14,624 --> 00:22:16,918 You could surge at the end. Yeah. 503 00:22:16,918 --> 00:22:19,254 I mean, I guess it depends again, that's the issue, right. 504 00:22:19,254 --> 00:22:21,214 Like what market we talk about. 505 00:22:21,214 --> 00:22:24,217 I certainly there's I mean I'm here in California or. 506 00:22:24,301 --> 00:22:26,345 Yeah, I mean California has had some really. 507 00:22:26,345 --> 00:22:28,930 And again, I'm biased here in California. I mean, we've had some markets. 508 00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:32,142 Well if we do that ratio then I pick best performing 509 00:22:32,142 --> 00:22:35,187 is single family and worst performing is single family. 510 00:22:35,187 --> 00:22:36,730 And at the end I'll just pick by the market. 511 00:22:38,565 --> 00:22:41,735 So we're no, we're saying, what are you speaking industrial? 512 00:22:41,735 --> 00:22:44,738 And I'll pick what type of industrial at the end of the year. 513 00:22:44,738 --> 00:22:50,202 So I mean, I'm, I'm specifically talking about below 2500ft², 514 00:22:50,202 --> 00:22:54,331 two bedroom, two bath copper wiring in California 515 00:22:54,331 --> 00:22:57,334 on a on a cold day. 516 00:22:57,626 --> 00:22:58,460 Do you have any updates? 517 00:22:58,460 --> 00:23:00,003 Are you just going to stick with single family here? 518 00:23:00,003 --> 00:23:03,006 Mauricio I'm sticking with single family, man. 519 00:23:03,006 --> 00:23:04,674 J and AJ both said office. 520 00:23:04,674 --> 00:23:09,971 As I said with CPI office isn't doing great, but it's it's still not the worst. 521 00:23:09,971 --> 00:23:12,307 So you know that's what I said. 522 00:23:12,307 --> 00:23:15,310 That's not the data that I'm looking at. 523 00:23:16,186 --> 00:23:18,397 J we won. 524 00:23:18,397 --> 00:23:19,106 Yeah, I think so. 525 00:23:19,106 --> 00:23:19,272 Yeah. 526 00:23:19,272 --> 00:23:20,607 Yeah, I think so. I 527 00:23:20,607 --> 00:23:23,443 so what's, what's your you're updating it or just claiming that you want. 528 00:23:23,443 --> 00:23:26,029 No I, I'm sticking with office. 529 00:23:26,029 --> 00:23:27,239 Sticking with office. 530 00:23:27,239 --> 00:23:31,827 I said self-storage before just to be I'm going to stick with it. 531 00:23:31,952 --> 00:23:34,538 Stick with self-storage. And I know AJ is going to crush it. 532 00:23:34,538 --> 00:23:37,916 If when self-storage goes down, I feel like that's still a market 533 00:23:38,291 --> 00:23:41,002 where you could be a big fish. 534 00:23:41,002 --> 00:23:43,171 If you were two years ago, you would have one. 535 00:23:43,171 --> 00:23:43,672 Yeah. 536 00:23:43,672 --> 00:23:48,009 So like, I feel like when self-storage goes down, that's when people like AJ win 537 00:23:48,009 --> 00:23:52,722 versus something like apartments, it's there's just so many big fish that it's, 538 00:23:53,056 --> 00:23:56,143 it's tough to really take advantage if you just see slow, slow downs. 539 00:23:56,143 --> 00:23:59,146 But I'm going to stick with, stick with self-storage there. 540 00:23:59,604 --> 00:24:02,107 Remember AJ said something that that stuck with me 541 00:24:02,107 --> 00:24:05,610 for a couple of years now that that would drive self-storage. 542 00:24:05,610 --> 00:24:06,486 I don't I, 543 00:24:06,486 --> 00:24:09,030 I don't want to put words in his mouth, but kind of more than anything else 544 00:24:09,030 --> 00:24:12,075 is the number of single family transactions out there. 545 00:24:12,075 --> 00:24:14,703 When people are buying and selling houses, self-storage does well. 546 00:24:14,703 --> 00:24:17,622 When people aren't buying and selling houses, it does poorly. 547 00:24:17,622 --> 00:24:20,375 For the last couple of years, nobody's been buying and selling how been buying 548 00:24:20,375 --> 00:24:23,670 or selling houses, but that feels like it's starting to change. 549 00:24:23,670 --> 00:24:27,466 I mean, I know I'm in a little bubble here in Southwest Florida, but I mean, 550 00:24:27,466 --> 00:24:30,594 the market here is getting crushed and we're seeing a lot accept. 551 00:24:30,594 --> 00:24:34,014 I thought we had a recession coming J which would be the opposite of that. 552 00:24:34,431 --> 00:24:37,058 Well, how did how did self-storage do in 2008? AJ 553 00:24:38,101 --> 00:24:38,435 it went 554 00:24:38,435 --> 00:24:41,438 down, but it did better than the other asset classes. 555 00:24:41,646 --> 00:24:42,105 Yeah. 556 00:24:42,105 --> 00:24:44,107 It's it's not necessarily just transactions. 557 00:24:44,107 --> 00:24:46,735 It's change. Right. So people are getting kicked out of their house. 558 00:24:46,735 --> 00:24:49,196 They're going to, you know, self-storage to change. 559 00:24:49,196 --> 00:24:50,697 Exactly. Change is good. 560 00:24:50,697 --> 00:24:54,826 So whether they're yeah, buying or leaving change is good. 561 00:24:55,368 --> 00:24:59,164 But I don't necessarily think that will happen by the end of 2025, 2026, maybe. 562 00:24:59,414 --> 00:25:00,332 All right, let's run this up. 563 00:25:00,332 --> 00:25:04,753 Since, Mauricio already said, sell, single family home prices. 564 00:25:04,753 --> 00:25:08,173 I know we have a bunch of people listening to this who are single family investors. 565 00:25:09,007 --> 00:25:13,094 How do we think single family home prices are going to end by the end of this year? 566 00:25:13,386 --> 00:25:16,306 Mauricio already says he thinks it's obviously going to be down 567 00:25:16,306 --> 00:25:18,850 because he says it's going to be the worst performing asset class. 568 00:25:18,850 --> 00:25:22,687 AJ what what do you think they're going to end off at for the single family? 569 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,815 I think down nationally, 570 00:25:25,815 --> 00:25:28,777 but I don't think substantial. 571 00:25:28,902 --> 00:25:31,530 So I think we'll be down. 572 00:25:31,530 --> 00:25:35,617 But, for single family homes, but it's not going to be 573 00:25:36,576 --> 00:25:39,371 huge just because I think the average 574 00:25:39,371 --> 00:25:42,582 will offset some of the markets that are getting hit really hard. 575 00:25:42,582 --> 00:25:44,918 That's a, it's a bit of a pivot there. 576 00:25:44,918 --> 00:25:47,295 You had it up, last time. 577 00:25:47,295 --> 00:25:50,799 Jay, do you think it's going to be up or down or significant? 578 00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:51,967 Insignificant. 579 00:25:51,967 --> 00:25:55,637 So there's a whole lot of different data around housing that we can look at. 580 00:25:55,637 --> 00:25:57,514 There's new homes, there's existing homes. 581 00:25:57,514 --> 00:26:00,225 There's the Case Shiller data that measures things a little differently. 582 00:26:00,225 --> 00:26:01,977 The median home values, 583 00:26:01,977 --> 00:26:04,771 the one I tend to like is the case Shiller data, because that 584 00:26:04,771 --> 00:26:07,190 I think we decided last time that's what we're using. Yeah. 585 00:26:07,190 --> 00:26:10,777 And so, we just today, today's Tuesday, 586 00:26:10,777 --> 00:26:13,780 two days before this episode comes out. 587 00:26:13,905 --> 00:26:16,032 Just today, I got Case-Shiller data for May. 588 00:26:16,032 --> 00:26:18,159 So Case-Shiller is a few months behind. 589 00:26:18,159 --> 00:26:21,162 And what we saw is that, every month so far this year. 590 00:26:21,162 --> 00:26:22,956 January, February, March, April, may. 591 00:26:22,956 --> 00:26:26,960 Home values have gone up, but the growth is slowing 592 00:26:27,252 --> 00:26:29,462 and the growth in May slowed tremendously. 593 00:26:29,462 --> 00:26:30,380 Still higher. 594 00:26:30,380 --> 00:26:32,799 It was like a 0.4%. 595 00:26:32,799 --> 00:26:33,883 But slowing. 596 00:26:33,883 --> 00:26:36,886 And so we're seeing a trend of slowing home growth. 597 00:26:36,928 --> 00:26:39,723 So and two it goes up normally in the spring higher. 598 00:26:39,723 --> 00:26:42,976 So normally that track and then fall in winter. 599 00:26:42,976 --> 00:26:44,978 It goes a good point. Good point. 600 00:26:44,978 --> 00:26:49,566 And so if you're following the trends, the trend right now is looking as if, 601 00:26:50,108 --> 00:26:53,695 by the time we catch up to now and the rest of the year, because, again, 602 00:26:53,820 --> 00:26:56,740 we're still just in May for that data. 603 00:26:56,740 --> 00:26:59,075 I think there's a very, very reasonable chance that we start 604 00:26:59,075 --> 00:27:01,328 to see declining home values over this year. 605 00:27:01,328 --> 00:27:05,373 And so, I'm going to say, I think, what are we up this year? 5%? 606 00:27:05,624 --> 00:27:08,793 33. 3% 3%? Okay. 607 00:27:09,044 --> 00:27:11,755 I'm going to say we're going to wipe that away by the end of the year. 608 00:27:11,755 --> 00:27:12,964 That's where I'm at. 609 00:27:12,964 --> 00:27:14,382 I'm I agree. 610 00:27:14,382 --> 00:27:16,760 So which would make my prediction at the beginning 611 00:27:18,219 --> 00:27:19,012 be flat. 612 00:27:19,012 --> 00:27:22,349 So I'm going to stick with flat for the what was my prediction at the beginning. 613 00:27:22,349 --> 00:27:24,225 I think it might have been flat also. 614 00:27:24,225 --> 00:27:25,935 Yeah, it was flat also. 615 00:27:25,935 --> 00:27:27,562 There you go. 616 00:27:27,562 --> 00:27:27,854 Right. 617 00:27:27,854 --> 00:27:30,565 Should we take a little break here that we got a little intense. 618 00:27:30,565 --> 00:27:32,108 We already got a little saucy there. 619 00:27:32,108 --> 00:27:36,154 AJ, took took offense a little bit, so let's let's go around the horn. 620 00:27:36,154 --> 00:27:38,615 So you guys are doing Mauricio, how's it going, man? 621 00:27:38,615 --> 00:27:40,533 What do you, what are you drinking today? 622 00:27:40,533 --> 00:27:43,787 Well, I've decided to mix it up big time because I needed to change 623 00:27:43,787 --> 00:27:45,330 my mojo on the prediction. 624 00:27:45,330 --> 00:27:46,164 So I'm actually. 625 00:27:46,164 --> 00:27:49,417 Plus, I'm at the office, and I got to get back home, so I'm switching to a little. 626 00:27:49,417 --> 00:27:53,129 Some poor old black look, you know, I was I got to 627 00:27:53,672 --> 00:27:56,800 yeah, I got, I went to sushi that I eat and take out 628 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,678 and this lady was pouring, you know, a pint of beer from the. 629 00:27:59,678 --> 00:28:02,305 And I'm like, dude, that that beer looks good. 630 00:28:02,305 --> 00:28:03,431 I haven't had a beer in a while. 631 00:28:03,431 --> 00:28:06,726 So I came across this today and I'm like, let me grab a little beer tonight. 632 00:28:06,726 --> 00:28:08,436 And it's so tasty. 633 00:28:08,436 --> 00:28:08,853 Tasty. 634 00:28:08,853 --> 00:28:10,188 Malty, nice. 635 00:28:10,188 --> 00:28:12,565 It's good to see you back in the studio. 636 00:28:12,565 --> 00:28:16,361 We had a couple days of you, but I, you know, I don't know what I'm going to do. 637 00:28:16,361 --> 00:28:16,986 The ranch. 638 00:28:16,986 --> 00:28:20,699 I'm on Starlink, and it's just as you guys could tell from our meeting of the day, 639 00:28:20,699 --> 00:28:21,282 it's just the. 640 00:28:21,282 --> 00:28:22,867 It's just when it jumps, 641 00:28:22,867 --> 00:28:25,745 Starlink jumps from satellite to satellite every 5 or 10 minutes. 642 00:28:25,745 --> 00:28:29,249 And every so often, it'll it'll jump in the it just doesn't work. 643 00:28:29,249 --> 00:28:32,293 So I'm, I'm a little bit I only got this office for another month. 644 00:28:32,293 --> 00:28:33,503 I'm out of here at the end of August 645 00:28:33,503 --> 00:28:34,963 and I'm like, I don't know what I'm going to do. 646 00:28:34,963 --> 00:28:36,464 I'm trying to figure that out. 647 00:28:36,464 --> 00:28:39,134 I'm going to move in with with AJ, I think is my plan right now. 648 00:28:39,134 --> 00:28:41,261 You're welcome anytime. 649 00:28:41,261 --> 00:28:44,264 You can always get two starlink's and then they, then mesh this. 650 00:28:44,347 --> 00:28:46,808 If that weren't. Dude, if that works, I'm doing it. I'm doing it. 651 00:28:46,808 --> 00:28:49,144 I was trying to get, like, the enterprise or the business, 652 00:28:49,144 --> 00:28:51,646 but they don't offer them or it's they're out of. I'm on the waitlist there. 653 00:28:51,646 --> 00:28:52,814 So I just got the regular stuff. 654 00:28:52,814 --> 00:28:54,941 But I need to do something technical. 655 00:28:54,941 --> 00:28:58,737 But technically there is a router that you could put two different 656 00:28:58,737 --> 00:29:01,740 internet signals and it will co-mingle those two signals. 657 00:29:01,906 --> 00:29:04,868 So even if one drops off or one gets slow or whatever. 658 00:29:04,951 --> 00:29:09,372 But isn't it the same satellite that that's going over my my house at the time? 659 00:29:09,372 --> 00:29:11,166 It's not like it's going to be. I don't know. 660 00:29:11,166 --> 00:29:11,875 That's the issue though. 661 00:29:11,875 --> 00:29:14,836 It's switching, so I don't know that it's necessarily the same. 662 00:29:14,836 --> 00:29:16,045 All right. I'll look into it. 663 00:29:16,045 --> 00:29:17,380 I need I need a solution guys. 664 00:29:17,380 --> 00:29:20,675 Otherwise this podcast is going to be jumpy the next the rest. 665 00:29:20,717 --> 00:29:22,427 That's my prediction for the rest of the year. 666 00:29:22,427 --> 00:29:24,095 The podcast going to be jumping. 667 00:29:24,095 --> 00:29:27,182 Yeah AJ how's it going over there man. 668 00:29:27,766 --> 00:29:28,349 Going good. 669 00:29:28,349 --> 00:29:33,313 Got my Diet Coke and my red cup and doing good. 670 00:29:33,313 --> 00:29:35,356 Mauricio I'm glad to see it. 671 00:29:35,356 --> 00:29:37,484 Yeah. Here we go. Little red cup. 672 00:29:37,484 --> 00:29:38,860 No cup. 673 00:29:38,860 --> 00:29:40,236 We might as I borrow. 674 00:29:40,236 --> 00:29:42,614 Oh, nice. Everything good with you, buddy? 675 00:29:42,614 --> 00:29:43,323 Going good. 676 00:29:43,323 --> 00:29:44,199 Going. Really good. 677 00:29:44,199 --> 00:29:46,284 Up in the mountains with the kids this weekend. 678 00:29:46,284 --> 00:29:48,119 Nice on a lake. 679 00:29:48,119 --> 00:29:48,995 It's awesome. 680 00:29:48,995 --> 00:29:50,622 I feel like the beard is getting tighter. 681 00:29:50,622 --> 00:29:53,458 You trimming, trimming it, trimming it a little trim. 682 00:29:53,458 --> 00:29:56,753 This morning I worked on it a little because I knew I was going to see you. 683 00:29:56,753 --> 00:29:59,506 And I wanted to impress you, so yeah. Good. 684 00:29:59,506 --> 00:30:01,925 Nicely done Jay. What's up man? 685 00:30:01,925 --> 00:30:04,344 We can do a little bit of a science corner here. 686 00:30:04,344 --> 00:30:07,305 For Mauricio knowledge with Starlink. 687 00:30:07,305 --> 00:30:11,559 So in a previous life before I did real estate, I did technology. 688 00:30:11,559 --> 00:30:15,438 And I worked at DirecTV for many, many years, and I was working 689 00:30:15,438 --> 00:30:16,815 on one of the products I worked on 690 00:30:16,815 --> 00:30:20,026 was a thing called HughesNet, which was basically it's Starlink, but 691 00:30:20,026 --> 00:30:23,530 DirecTV's version of Starlink and it's internet over satellite. 692 00:30:23,947 --> 00:30:29,828 And, one of the things that we did at HughesNet, DirecTV, was we used 693 00:30:29,828 --> 00:30:33,957 what's called a geosynchronous satellites, meaning we put the satellites up higher. 694 00:30:34,082 --> 00:30:35,583 They stay in one place. 695 00:30:35,583 --> 00:30:38,086 You always point your dish at one satellite. 696 00:30:38,086 --> 00:30:41,965 Starlink has satellites in lower orbit, so it's cheaper to put them there, 697 00:30:41,965 --> 00:30:45,134 but they're constantly rotating, and that means they're doing hand offs. 698 00:30:45,134 --> 00:30:47,679 Every time the satellites go past your house. 699 00:30:47,679 --> 00:30:49,931 So, so there you go. 700 00:30:49,931 --> 00:30:52,892 You know, can you just text me the solution to my problem? 701 00:30:52,892 --> 00:30:53,017 Yeah. 702 00:30:54,310 --> 00:30:55,645 I think, 703 00:30:55,645 --> 00:30:58,648 you'd be looking at Elon to come up with the solution to that problem. 704 00:30:59,649 --> 00:31:01,484 I'm not sure I'm smart enough. 705 00:31:01,484 --> 00:31:03,736 Everything's funny, or at least drinking after that, 706 00:31:03,736 --> 00:31:06,739 I, I pulled out, I saw I'm drinking some wine. 707 00:31:06,906 --> 00:31:10,869 I pulled out a big, bold Bordeaux, 2019 Bordeaux. 708 00:31:10,869 --> 00:31:13,329 And, so I'm drinking that, and I'm getting ready. 709 00:31:13,329 --> 00:31:15,623 I'm heading to Dallas, 710 00:31:15,623 --> 00:31:19,085 in a day or two to visit a property that were getting ready to close on. 711 00:31:19,085 --> 00:31:22,463 We're buying some land to build a large apartment complex. 712 00:31:22,463 --> 00:31:24,340 I have a conference there this weekend. 713 00:31:24,340 --> 00:31:25,884 I'm gonna be hanging out with Mauricio. 714 00:31:25,884 --> 00:31:29,137 I think you guys are just nuts, but, Mauricio, be. 715 00:31:29,262 --> 00:31:30,680 We'll be hanging out in Dallas this week. 716 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,390 I'm sending my better half. 717 00:31:32,390 --> 00:31:35,268 She actually already sent her. Dropped her off to the airport. 718 00:31:35,268 --> 00:31:37,186 I'm taking care of the kids by myself. 719 00:31:37,186 --> 00:31:38,563 No camp this week, either. 720 00:31:38,563 --> 00:31:40,565 So it's just camp Wilson. 721 00:31:40,565 --> 00:31:43,234 Just figuring out stuff to do with them every day. 722 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:45,653 So I am drinking a lot. 723 00:31:45,653 --> 00:31:48,281 This is no different this night. Just every night. 724 00:31:48,281 --> 00:31:49,616 I'm gonna have to drink to put up with it. 725 00:31:49,616 --> 00:31:52,160 But I'm going with, a beer tonight. 726 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,161 I am a beer drinker. 727 00:31:53,161 --> 00:31:56,247 It's, sometimes when I'm drinking more than one drink. 728 00:31:56,247 --> 00:31:59,250 And I'm going with the, the Kona big wave. 729 00:31:59,459 --> 00:32:01,836 It's a, it's a fun beer. 730 00:32:01,836 --> 00:32:04,797 And I also have a fridge right next to me, so if I need a second, 731 00:32:04,797 --> 00:32:06,966 I can just go in and grab it. 732 00:32:06,966 --> 00:32:09,594 Yeah. So you guys have fun there in Dallas. 733 00:32:09,594 --> 00:32:12,597 Think, check on our property there. 734 00:32:12,847 --> 00:32:16,309 Did officially closed out that race for the first round, right, Jay? 735 00:32:16,601 --> 00:32:19,062 Yeah, we closed it out a day or two ago. 736 00:32:19,062 --> 00:32:22,065 We raised everything we needed, and, getting ready to buy the land. 737 00:32:22,690 --> 00:32:23,024 Nice. 738 00:32:23,024 --> 00:32:26,277 So keep your eyes tuned for the, the next one. 739 00:32:26,277 --> 00:32:28,780 Next. We got, we got a second. 740 00:32:28,780 --> 00:32:29,989 Another. That coming the way. 741 00:32:29,989 --> 00:32:31,115 This is not the pitch fest. 742 00:32:31,115 --> 00:32:33,368 This is not the part of the show where you pitch your deals. 743 00:32:33,368 --> 00:32:35,286 That's at the end of the show. Not right now. 744 00:32:35,286 --> 00:32:36,704 I'm just going to take that. 745 00:32:36,704 --> 00:32:38,289 I'll take that criticism under no. 746 00:32:38,289 --> 00:32:41,459 And I will, and throw that note away. 747 00:32:41,501 --> 00:32:42,251 Yeah, exactly. 748 00:32:44,504 --> 00:32:45,046 All right, 749 00:32:45,046 --> 00:32:48,883 let's get back into this, gold talking about gold. 750 00:32:48,883 --> 00:32:51,719 Finally. Finally, we talk about something we should talk. 751 00:32:51,719 --> 00:32:53,429 The rest of the episode should be on gold. 752 00:32:53,429 --> 00:32:54,764 Isn't this the one thing? 753 00:32:54,764 --> 00:32:57,517 Maurice, you got? 754 00:32:57,517 --> 00:33:00,103 No. Know the fun if you remember. 755 00:33:00,103 --> 00:33:02,146 If you remember, it was not last predictions. 756 00:33:02,146 --> 00:33:03,898 Episode was the one before. 757 00:33:03,898 --> 00:33:07,318 And we asked Mauricio what the best performing real estate class would be. 758 00:33:07,318 --> 00:33:08,778 And his answer was gold. 759 00:33:08,778 --> 00:33:12,365 So, yeah, I guess I don't know if you call that a win or not, but 760 00:33:13,324 --> 00:33:16,869 I do, I do, but at that point, if you had not bought all your multifamily 761 00:33:16,869 --> 00:33:20,707 and bought gold on leverage, you know, 80% LTV, you would have done just fine. 762 00:33:20,832 --> 00:33:21,791 Yeah. 763 00:33:21,791 --> 00:33:23,501 So what's everyone's for, Mauricio. 764 00:33:23,501 --> 00:33:25,503 And since you're so excited, I'll let you go first. 765 00:33:25,503 --> 00:33:28,047 Do you think gold's going up from here? That's a that's a good question. 766 00:33:28,047 --> 00:33:29,257 Well, I was looking at my last prediction. 767 00:33:29,257 --> 00:33:32,427 I said I was going to touch 3000, which, it actually touched 768 00:33:32,427 --> 00:33:37,265 and then took off my, it I think it's, it's, I think it's consolidating. 769 00:33:37,265 --> 00:33:38,016 I think it's, you know, 770 00:33:38,016 --> 00:33:41,769 did that move from three to about 3400 and this is back in April. 771 00:33:41,769 --> 00:33:43,396 And it's just kind of been going sideways. 772 00:33:43,396 --> 00:33:45,481 And I think it was continue to go sideways for the rest of the year. 773 00:33:45,481 --> 00:33:48,484 So I would expect, to be in that range. 774 00:33:48,568 --> 00:33:49,527 So I don't think it's going anywhere 775 00:33:49,527 --> 00:33:52,071 just going to go sideways choppy for the next six months. 776 00:33:52,071 --> 00:33:52,530 Yeah. 777 00:33:52,530 --> 00:33:55,658 Beginning of the year took off and then it's been kind of rangebound. 778 00:33:55,658 --> 00:33:59,620 I have a solid idea and go slowly because I do have some gold 779 00:33:59,620 --> 00:34:01,789 and it's been like the, you know, the shining star. 780 00:34:01,789 --> 00:34:03,416 You can always just take a look at it, be like, oh, 781 00:34:03,416 --> 00:34:04,834 that's that gold is doing great. 782 00:34:04,834 --> 00:34:07,545 Even though tariffs and all these other things are going on. 783 00:34:07,545 --> 00:34:10,631 But I do agree with you, I do, I do think though, 784 00:34:10,631 --> 00:34:14,469 if we have a little bit of, the back end of this year, if we have to do some 785 00:34:14,469 --> 00:34:17,680 rate cuts and stuff like that, I do think gold could go up a little bit. 786 00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,140 So I'm going to say up a little bit. 787 00:34:19,140 --> 00:34:21,476 It's not going down up a little bit. 788 00:34:21,476 --> 00:34:22,685 AJ what do you think? 789 00:34:22,685 --> 00:34:25,855 I think gold will remain fairly flat. 790 00:34:25,855 --> 00:34:28,149 I think most of the run up we've seen. 791 00:34:28,149 --> 00:34:31,027 So I think, you know, what is it on here? 792 00:34:31,027 --> 00:34:34,072 We got me and you, Kyle, and. Well. 793 00:34:34,322 --> 00:34:36,949 Well, Yeah, all of us were kind of right in line. 794 00:34:36,949 --> 00:34:39,577 I think it'll stay right about 34. 795 00:34:39,577 --> 00:34:41,746 Yeah. So that's me up a little bit. Yes. We're. Yeah. 796 00:34:41,746 --> 00:34:44,999 I think it's going to be it's going to be rangebound between 32 and 34 797 00:34:44,999 --> 00:34:46,417 is really where I'm, where I'm seeing it. 798 00:34:46,417 --> 00:34:49,837 I think our prediction at the first of the year will remain true, 799 00:34:49,962 --> 00:34:51,756 because I think that big run up we've seen. 800 00:34:51,756 --> 00:34:53,382 Jake, you agree with us. 801 00:34:53,382 --> 00:34:56,385 Are you, are you going back? 802 00:34:56,552 --> 00:35:00,556 No, I think I so I was the one, I think I think I was the only one 803 00:35:00,556 --> 00:35:03,976 that said gold was not going up for the rest of this year. 804 00:35:03,976 --> 00:35:07,647 And, I think I'm going to change that and say gold's been up 805 00:35:07,647 --> 00:35:10,691 20% this year, and I think we've got a little bit further to go. 806 00:35:11,901 --> 00:35:12,985 And so 807 00:35:12,985 --> 00:35:15,988 and crazy enough, Silver's up 30% this year. 808 00:35:16,781 --> 00:35:19,826 And so, which I think I did touch on last time, 809 00:35:19,826 --> 00:35:25,456 silver is been like silver used to move a lot more with gold than it hasn't been. 810 00:35:25,456 --> 00:35:26,165 So there 811 00:35:26,165 --> 00:35:29,919 there is a lot of arguments to say that silver has some a ways to go to catch up 812 00:35:29,919 --> 00:35:32,505 with. Of all Jay misses, skip the mat. 813 00:35:32,505 --> 00:35:35,716 I mean, gold started at 2650 ish 814 00:35:36,008 --> 00:35:38,719 at the beginning of the year, and now it's at 3325. 815 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,012 That's way more than 20%. 816 00:35:40,012 --> 00:35:41,848 And and it got up to even higher than that. 817 00:35:41,848 --> 00:35:43,349 So do the math. 818 00:35:43,349 --> 00:35:46,352 Yeah it's pretty pretty close 20. 819 00:35:46,811 --> 00:35:49,021 All right. 820 00:35:49,021 --> 00:35:50,857 So yeah, I'm a lawyer. 821 00:35:50,857 --> 00:35:51,774 Jay's the economist. 822 00:35:51,774 --> 00:35:53,860 We'll, we'll let that one slide. 823 00:35:53,860 --> 00:35:55,820 I'm going to say gold up a little bit from here. 824 00:35:55,820 --> 00:35:57,738 Not a lot, but maybe a couple more percent. 825 00:35:57,738 --> 00:35:59,782 It'll it'll be higher than it is today. 826 00:35:59,782 --> 00:36:00,074 All right. 827 00:36:00,074 --> 00:36:02,952 So couple flats, couple, couple up a little bit. 828 00:36:04,287 --> 00:36:04,745 All right. 829 00:36:04,745 --> 00:36:07,748 Bitcoin and bitcoin. 830 00:36:08,875 --> 00:36:10,960 I'll go I love Marissa's bitcoin predictions 831 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,963 because I know he doesn't care and I know he doesn't follow it. 832 00:36:13,963 --> 00:36:19,385 And so it's always at least entertaining to listen to Mauricio talk about Bitcoin. 833 00:36:19,385 --> 00:36:22,180 So Mauricio what do you think Bitcoin's going to be. 834 00:36:22,180 --> 00:36:23,139 What did I say last time. 835 00:36:23,139 --> 00:36:26,684 That I was going to be the only one who had it going down to 100 grand. 836 00:36:27,476 --> 00:36:29,979 No it was at 100 grand when we made the conviction. 837 00:36:29,979 --> 00:36:32,982 You said it was going down and and is 838 00:36:33,316 --> 00:36:36,944 is is Bitcoin still still a thing or is it moved on to other things? 839 00:36:36,944 --> 00:36:40,323 I will say that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin. 840 00:36:40,323 --> 00:36:41,949 I know that's not the prediction but that's my prediction. 841 00:36:41,949 --> 00:36:45,995 Ethereum will now take over and over the next 6 to 12 months, 842 00:36:45,995 --> 00:36:48,998 and probably in the next couple of years, I think Ethereum will 843 00:36:49,582 --> 00:36:52,418 will be the kind of the silver to the buying. 844 00:36:52,418 --> 00:36:53,502 Any reason behind that? 845 00:36:53,502 --> 00:36:55,838 Or you just watched the podcast once and that's what they said. 846 00:36:56,881 --> 00:36:59,050 I saw some I think it was on South Park or something. 847 00:36:59,050 --> 00:37:02,053 I know that I'm going to actually agree with them. 848 00:37:02,470 --> 00:37:04,722 I know you didn't call me, but, 849 00:37:04,722 --> 00:37:09,727 I think Ethereum has more implicit values and than Bitcoin simply because, 850 00:37:10,436 --> 00:37:14,565 it can be used for what are called smart transactions or smart contracts. 851 00:37:14,649 --> 00:37:17,109 Smart contracts. Jake. Come on. 852 00:37:17,109 --> 00:37:19,403 And so there is some implicit value 853 00:37:19,403 --> 00:37:23,407 in Ethereum as a solution to both business and technical problems. 854 00:37:23,741 --> 00:37:26,577 Whereas Bitcoin is kind of it's popular and 855 00:37:26,577 --> 00:37:29,956 and don't get me wrong, popularity will take it a long way. 856 00:37:30,206 --> 00:37:34,126 Isn't Bitcoin still the only one classified as a commodity though? 857 00:37:35,044 --> 00:37:38,965 Ethereum isn't with a nonstick as a as a non sort of security if you're talking it. 858 00:37:39,006 --> 00:37:41,133 Yeah I mean I guess it doesn't matter as much with 859 00:37:41,133 --> 00:37:42,635 with the new Trump administration. 860 00:37:42,635 --> 00:37:44,720 But that was a big deal to me before 861 00:37:45,763 --> 00:37:47,390 because it was technically 862 00:37:47,390 --> 00:37:50,643 the only one where you couldn't get in trouble for selling it. 863 00:37:50,643 --> 00:37:50,810 Yeah. 864 00:37:50,810 --> 00:37:52,144 Even though all the all the legal 865 00:37:52,144 --> 00:37:55,606 ramifications were Coinbase was in trouble because there was listing supposedly not 866 00:37:55,898 --> 00:37:56,857 that all got dropped. 867 00:37:56,857 --> 00:37:59,860 So, you know, it's obviously a pro 868 00:38:00,152 --> 00:38:03,155 crypto bitcoin administration AJ what do you think. 869 00:38:03,155 --> 00:38:07,576 Apparently this is shifting to Ethereum versus bitcoin instead of just bitcoin. 870 00:38:07,618 --> 00:38:12,123 I think the idea of talking about value with 871 00:38:13,124 --> 00:38:15,668 this is 872 00:38:15,668 --> 00:38:17,503 well alternative. 873 00:38:17,503 --> 00:38:21,674 Because ain't nobody care about that when we're talking about these coins. 874 00:38:22,425 --> 00:38:24,677 I think it will continue 875 00:38:24,677 --> 00:38:27,680 just like it has tracking other index. 876 00:38:28,973 --> 00:38:31,976 It's tracks, it almost like perfectly. 877 00:38:32,018 --> 00:38:36,314 So I think if you're if you are going along with particularly 878 00:38:36,314 --> 00:38:39,400 a lot of different market stuff, things, I think it's up. 879 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,736 I don't think it'll drop below 100,000. 880 00:38:41,736 --> 00:38:44,739 And so I think I'm staying with above 100,000. 881 00:38:45,114 --> 00:38:46,407 Yeah, I think so too. 882 00:38:46,407 --> 00:38:49,952 But at some point I also do think that's what we're predicting, right? 883 00:38:50,202 --> 00:38:51,370 Yeah. I have a rock. 884 00:38:51,370 --> 00:38:53,539 Oh yeah. No you're right, you're the only one who actually did it. 885 00:38:54,874 --> 00:38:58,210 So it's interesting because I do think 886 00:38:59,337 --> 00:39:02,340 Bitcoin's obviously a bit of a vanity play too. 887 00:39:02,381 --> 00:39:06,761 And so if we do see any kind of softness, recession and stuff, like if I, 888 00:39:06,761 --> 00:39:09,972 if I, I don't have any Bitcoin now, which obviously I'm kicking myself, 889 00:39:09,972 --> 00:39:14,018 I had had it before, but if I did have any bitcoin like that 890 00:39:14,018 --> 00:39:17,063 would be the first thing that I would sell if I needed to sell anything. 891 00:39:17,063 --> 00:39:19,774 Right. Like I'm not going to get rid of any of my other assets. 892 00:39:19,774 --> 00:39:22,777 Bitcoin is going to be the first thing to go and the easiest thing to go. 893 00:39:23,486 --> 00:39:24,945 Even over gold. 894 00:39:24,945 --> 00:39:28,532 So, I do think at some point we could see it 895 00:39:28,616 --> 00:39:32,286 and we know Bitcoin can correct 20% in a heartbeat. 896 00:39:32,411 --> 00:39:36,832 It's not like the like the stock market, even if a stock market corrects 20%. 897 00:39:36,832 --> 00:39:39,293 But that you know, usually takes days. 898 00:39:39,293 --> 00:39:40,961 You know Bitcoin can be hours. 899 00:39:42,129 --> 00:39:44,673 So yeah but I just I don't think it's 900 00:39:44,673 --> 00:39:49,387 I don't see it happening this first year in 2025. 901 00:39:49,387 --> 00:39:51,222 So I do think we, 902 00:39:51,222 --> 00:39:54,308 I don't think we're going up much, but I think we're staying about the same. 903 00:39:55,017 --> 00:39:58,479 AJ, you mentioned, you mentioned you mentioned, an index, some things I always 904 00:39:58,813 --> 00:40:02,441 thought that bitcoin the things I've seen, it tracks like just global liquidity. 905 00:40:02,441 --> 00:40:03,484 When there's a lot of liquidity 906 00:40:03,484 --> 00:40:06,487 in the global markets, Bitcoin tends to catch a bit. 907 00:40:06,487 --> 00:40:07,446 And then when there's a little bit 908 00:40:07,446 --> 00:40:10,449 when the liquidity dries up and there's tightness, it goes down. 909 00:40:10,825 --> 00:40:14,370 The there's a good correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P. 910 00:40:14,870 --> 00:40:17,623 So in statistics you can do this thing called a regression analysis 911 00:40:17,623 --> 00:40:20,626 where you can see how good a correlation is or if there's causation. 912 00:40:20,918 --> 00:40:23,712 And if you do a regression analysis on 913 00:40:23,712 --> 00:40:26,257 Bitcoin and S&P it's it's it's pretty high. 914 00:40:26,257 --> 00:40:28,843 Yeah. And oh at least over the last two years. Yeah. 915 00:40:28,843 --> 00:40:31,804 It's like point eight or something like that right. 916 00:40:31,804 --> 00:40:33,180 I mean it's high. 917 00:40:33,180 --> 00:40:35,141 I thought it was more on the Nasdaq. Right. 918 00:40:35,141 --> 00:40:38,227 Nasdaq was the biggest one for the Bitcoin that they correlated. 919 00:40:38,227 --> 00:40:41,814 But so it is okay. So I0I almost nailed it. 920 00:40:41,814 --> 00:40:45,025 It's 0.7. That's a close point seven. 921 00:40:45,192 --> 00:40:46,569 It's a pretty strong correlation. 922 00:40:46,569 --> 00:40:48,487 So yeah. But what about look at this one though. 923 00:40:48,487 --> 00:40:50,489 This is and again this is from frickin Reddit. 924 00:40:50,489 --> 00:40:54,160 Big concern however but this this is the global M2 liquidity. 925 00:40:54,243 --> 00:40:57,580 So if you think gold is going up Bitcoin will go down. 926 00:40:58,122 --> 00:41:00,166 No this is the global. This is no no no. 927 00:41:00,166 --> 00:41:02,084 This is what I'm looking at here for those. 928 00:41:02,084 --> 00:41:05,463 It's the global M2 liquidity as it makes it look identically. 929 00:41:05,796 --> 00:41:06,380 It's easy. 930 00:41:06,380 --> 00:41:07,882 It's easy predict liquidity. 931 00:41:07,882 --> 00:41:10,676 And you got easy money easy money. Yeah. 932 00:41:10,676 --> 00:41:14,472 Problem is we have like less than ten years worth of data. 933 00:41:14,472 --> 00:41:15,639 So it's 934 00:41:15,639 --> 00:41:18,851 well not only that it's a it's impossible to I say it's impossible 935 00:41:18,851 --> 00:41:20,603 to track global liquidity 936 00:41:20,603 --> 00:41:23,439 because there's so much of the stuff that you just it's just not being tracked. 937 00:41:23,439 --> 00:41:25,232 Nobody there's no official arguing. 938 00:41:25,232 --> 00:41:27,359 Bitcoin's like arguing politics or religion. 939 00:41:27,359 --> 00:41:29,111 It's not really working out. 940 00:41:29,111 --> 00:41:30,946 Well, that's what we do on this podcast every day. 941 00:41:30,946 --> 00:41:33,908 And it's been our longest segment so far. 942 00:41:33,949 --> 00:41:35,743 We should go back to gold. We should go back to gold. 943 00:41:37,077 --> 00:41:38,412 I'll, let's just run through. 944 00:41:38,412 --> 00:41:40,456 I'll run through a bunch of the stuff we talked about. 945 00:41:40,456 --> 00:41:44,001 If you guys want to jump in on any of them, we can just to update people. 946 00:41:44,293 --> 00:41:46,670 We, we obviously talked about tariffs. 947 00:41:46,670 --> 00:41:48,923 I don't think we can make predictions about tariffs. 948 00:41:48,923 --> 00:41:51,342 I don't want to, who knows? 949 00:41:51,342 --> 00:41:54,345 They change every, the goalpost move a lot, 950 00:41:54,637 --> 00:41:58,098 deportations, whether we there's going to be a lot or a little. 951 00:41:58,432 --> 00:42:00,601 It's I feel like that's still one of those things 952 00:42:00,601 --> 00:42:02,895 that it gets a lot of noise about things happening, 953 00:42:02,895 --> 00:42:03,854 but I don't feel like it's 954 00:42:03,854 --> 00:42:07,066 that much more than it actually was in the, in historically. 955 00:42:07,066 --> 00:42:09,193 So I think we're all kind of right on that. 956 00:42:09,193 --> 00:42:11,904 Elon, cutting the budget with Doge 957 00:42:11,904 --> 00:42:14,740 technically he did cut some things. 958 00:42:15,908 --> 00:42:18,285 So that's enough to call a win there. 959 00:42:18,285 --> 00:42:23,832 But as far as how much he cut versus how much our is going up with the new budget, 960 00:42:24,250 --> 00:42:29,755 I don't yeah, I don't I don't really call what Doge did a win at this point. 961 00:42:30,881 --> 00:42:32,299 Daylight savings. 962 00:42:32,299 --> 00:42:34,301 I'm still just hopeful they're going to get rid of 963 00:42:34,301 --> 00:42:35,761 daylight savings one way or another. 964 00:42:35,761 --> 00:42:38,055 You can keep daylight saving full time, too. 965 00:42:38,055 --> 00:42:39,306 Jabe made a point last time. 966 00:42:39,306 --> 00:42:40,057 There's a big difference. 967 00:42:40,057 --> 00:42:43,686 But, either keep that full time or do away with a completely. 968 00:42:43,686 --> 00:42:46,605 I just hate the clocks changing. 969 00:42:46,605 --> 00:42:47,565 National emergency. 970 00:42:47,565 --> 00:42:49,775 Obviously, Trump declared a national emergency. 971 00:42:49,775 --> 00:42:51,485 Where are the files on this one? 972 00:42:51,485 --> 00:42:52,987 I don't see the Epstein files on it. 973 00:42:52,987 --> 00:42:54,905 We'll get there. 974 00:42:54,905 --> 00:42:55,864 Will. 975 00:42:55,864 --> 00:42:58,826 Will, Trump removed Jerome Powell 976 00:42:58,826 --> 00:43:02,329 before his term ends at the end or at the beginning of the year? 977 00:43:02,621 --> 00:43:07,126 We all kind of said no, except for Mauricio said he didn't care. 978 00:43:08,627 --> 00:43:09,461 What I might. 979 00:43:09,461 --> 00:43:13,299 Looking at a different spreadsheet, I clearly it says no, it says no 980 00:43:13,299 --> 00:43:15,968 on the Mauricio column. Am I missing something? 981 00:43:15,968 --> 00:43:18,178 This is the 2025 predictions. 982 00:43:18,178 --> 00:43:19,054 New predictions. 983 00:43:19,054 --> 00:43:22,057 That's what I have. Right? And it says no. 984 00:43:22,349 --> 00:43:25,352 He he was reading the the, UFO files. 985 00:43:25,477 --> 00:43:26,562 Oh, sorry. 986 00:43:26,562 --> 00:43:29,356 My bad. A lot of data on here. 987 00:43:29,356 --> 00:43:32,109 I, I I'm already struggling here. Carl. 988 00:43:32,109 --> 00:43:35,112 You can't just just just not give me a some points here, dude. 989 00:43:35,112 --> 00:43:35,946 Come on. 990 00:43:35,946 --> 00:43:39,658 I assume we all think the polls here to stay to the end of his term. 991 00:43:41,535 --> 00:43:44,163 UFO files, that's where I don't know. 992 00:43:44,163 --> 00:43:45,831 Don't care. 993 00:43:45,831 --> 00:43:47,374 Ukraine war in Gaza. 994 00:43:47,374 --> 00:43:50,377 War, do we? Updated? 995 00:43:50,669 --> 00:43:53,589 We still have a Ukraine war, and we still have a Gaza war. 996 00:43:53,589 --> 00:43:56,383 I think most of us said we thought the Ukraine war was ending. 997 00:43:57,384 --> 00:43:59,053 Do we think they have an update? 998 00:43:59,053 --> 00:44:00,554 I think we have 52 at this point. 999 00:44:00,554 --> 00:44:02,056 What we have 50 days. 1000 00:44:02,056 --> 00:44:04,433 Is that what the what did I say? 1001 00:44:04,433 --> 00:44:08,896 I think we all thought that the or you says agreed with AJ. 1002 00:44:09,438 --> 00:44:10,689 Yeah. Might be over next. 1003 00:44:10,689 --> 00:44:13,150 No that's Kyle I don't know what no means. 1004 00:44:13,150 --> 00:44:17,946 So Trump and Ukraine war no ends Gaza war no you don't 1005 00:44:17,988 --> 00:44:22,785 okay so theoretically Jay is still is in the lead on that one. 1006 00:44:23,285 --> 00:44:27,748 But all we need is is that Ukraine war to end somehow and that's we. 1007 00:44:27,998 --> 00:44:29,875 All we need is the Ukraine war to end. 1008 00:44:29,875 --> 00:44:30,959 Oh, 50 days. 1009 00:44:30,959 --> 00:44:33,253 If you listen to our president, it's going to be over in 50 days. 1010 00:44:33,253 --> 00:44:36,298 He said if he cut it back to 15, he cut it back to 15. 1011 00:44:36,423 --> 00:44:38,008 Oh, okay. Well, I don't look into it. 1012 00:44:38,008 --> 00:44:41,887 We'll wait for the next The Truth Social post to keep you updated on that one. 1013 00:44:43,389 --> 00:44:43,889 Okay. 1014 00:44:43,889 --> 00:44:45,641 TikTok that's you know what? 1015 00:44:45,641 --> 00:44:49,395 I did want to bring this up because I haven't heard anything about TikTok. 1016 00:44:49,395 --> 00:44:49,937 I looked it up. 1017 00:44:49,937 --> 00:44:52,690 I looked it up, and that deadline came and went and blew by. 1018 00:44:52,690 --> 00:44:53,857 And nobody's talking about it. 1019 00:44:53,857 --> 00:44:56,276 And there's no Trump extended it. 1020 00:44:56,276 --> 00:44:57,444 He has no authority. 1021 00:44:57,444 --> 00:45:00,572 He has no authority under the under the act to extend it and extended it 1022 00:45:00,572 --> 00:45:01,740 anyway. And nobody's complaining. 1023 00:45:01,740 --> 00:45:03,242 So if you don't complain 1024 00:45:03,242 --> 00:45:04,827 or do anything about it, then you can do whatever you want. 1025 00:45:04,827 --> 00:45:06,787 And like I've heard a couple times, there's a group 1026 00:45:06,787 --> 00:45:08,956 that's going to buy it, but then you just don't hear anything. 1027 00:45:08,956 --> 00:45:10,416 So I don't, I don't, I don't know if it's 1028 00:45:10,416 --> 00:45:13,419 if it's worth discussing it just with everything else going on, 1029 00:45:13,585 --> 00:45:16,630 it doesn't seem like anyone really cares, to be honest. 1030 00:45:17,047 --> 00:45:17,464 All right. 1031 00:45:17,464 --> 00:45:20,843 No comments on those so we can move on to some other stuff. 1032 00:45:21,176 --> 00:45:26,640 I want to do a fun one here where everyone's talking about AI right now. 1033 00:45:26,765 --> 00:45:30,519 So I'll give you guys a second to come up with an AI prediction 1034 00:45:30,728 --> 00:45:34,773 in order to to kind of pull this out so you can have some time. 1035 00:45:35,023 --> 00:45:38,402 I saw the other day, this is what's scary about it. 1036 00:45:38,527 --> 00:45:39,278 Whoa, whoa. 1037 00:45:39,278 --> 00:45:41,029 Hold on. Stop, stop. 1038 00:45:41,029 --> 00:45:43,157 Jay, put those up again. 1039 00:45:43,157 --> 00:45:46,160 What up? Your freaking guns, bro? 1040 00:45:46,201 --> 00:45:47,745 Look at that. 1041 00:45:47,745 --> 00:45:50,080 If you give the, Oh, yeah. 1042 00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:51,290 Jeez. Over there. Look at all 1043 00:45:52,666 --> 00:45:53,959 that crap. 1044 00:45:53,959 --> 00:45:56,503 Oh, boy, it's so funny. 1045 00:45:56,503 --> 00:45:59,882 I was actually on the red sheet, so I wasn't even watching myself, so. 1046 00:46:00,090 --> 00:46:01,049 Yeah, bro. 1047 00:46:01,049 --> 00:46:02,760 No looking good. Jay. 1048 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,303 The Charles for the girls. 1049 00:46:04,303 --> 00:46:06,847 My 15 year old drags me to the gym every day. 1050 00:46:06,847 --> 00:46:07,973 It's showing, man. 1051 00:46:07,973 --> 00:46:10,976 Yeah, as long as like, as long as I stay chest up, I'm good. 1052 00:46:12,436 --> 00:46:13,854 Is that from the weight room or is that from 1053 00:46:13,854 --> 00:46:17,566 is I'm from the weight room or it's out from like a mocking all your poker cards. 1054 00:46:17,649 --> 00:46:20,110 Just flicking, flicking the cards out. 1055 00:46:20,110 --> 00:46:21,695 It's scooping his chips. 1056 00:46:21,695 --> 00:46:23,280 Oh that's a back exercise. 1057 00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:24,990 That's a back exercise. 1058 00:46:24,990 --> 00:46:27,993 They have 50 pound dumbbells that planet fitness machines. 1059 00:46:28,786 --> 00:46:29,369 We switch it. 1060 00:46:29,369 --> 00:46:29,620 Where to? 1061 00:46:29,620 --> 00:46:32,623 Real gym now the Costco gym. 1062 00:46:33,207 --> 00:46:36,210 I prediction I bring this up because I saw this the other day 1063 00:46:36,210 --> 00:46:40,088 where there's this company that had an AI and they were like, they were writing 1064 00:46:40,088 --> 00:46:44,092 code and they, they integrated their AI into their entire system. 1065 00:46:44,092 --> 00:46:49,056 And they then they implemented like it was called, like a coding freeze. 1066 00:46:49,723 --> 00:46:52,267 And the I didn't know how to handle it. 1067 00:46:52,267 --> 00:46:56,647 And it freaked out and it deleted all of their data off the server. 1068 00:46:57,231 --> 00:47:02,820 And the the person talking to the I was like, what are you doing? 1069 00:47:02,820 --> 00:47:04,029 Why did you do that? 1070 00:47:04,029 --> 00:47:07,366 And the I was like, you're right, I panicked. 1071 00:47:07,950 --> 00:47:12,037 I shouldn't have done that and was like the I was like apologizing to them. 1072 00:47:12,246 --> 00:47:16,583 And then the guy asked them on a scale of 1 to 100, how bad is this? 1073 00:47:16,583 --> 00:47:19,127 In the I was like, this is a 95. 1074 00:47:20,170 --> 00:47:21,171 You have to I 1075 00:47:21,171 --> 00:47:24,716 basically two months worth of your work is you completely gone 1076 00:47:25,926 --> 00:47:28,053 all all through this I did this. 1077 00:47:28,053 --> 00:47:32,558 So that just made me like there's got to be something big happens with the AI. 1078 00:47:32,558 --> 00:47:35,686 We still haven't had like all these scandals or kind of minor where 1079 00:47:35,686 --> 00:47:39,731 like one AI gets a little bit racist or something and make some comments, 1080 00:47:39,731 --> 00:47:43,986 or one AI gets woke and make some comments and oh, that's already happened. 1081 00:47:44,027 --> 00:47:44,319 Yeah. 1082 00:47:44,319 --> 00:47:45,320 I've got here's, 1083 00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:47,656 here's my well, you have a question because I think I know where you go. 1084 00:47:47,656 --> 00:47:48,782 But I got some thoughts on this. 1085 00:47:48,782 --> 00:47:49,032 All right. 1086 00:47:49,032 --> 00:47:51,285 Yeah I just want a prediction I want an AI prediction 1087 00:47:51,285 --> 00:47:52,911 because I think something big is happening. 1088 00:47:52,911 --> 00:47:54,288 This is something that I actually think 1089 00:47:54,288 --> 00:47:58,876 is tied to kind of interestingly with Bitcoin and that stuff. 1090 00:47:58,876 --> 00:48:04,298 But I think it's coming where AI is going to basically be able 1091 00:48:04,298 --> 00:48:08,260 to infiltrate the banking system, meaning they're going to be able to fake your 1092 00:48:08,260 --> 00:48:11,013 passwords and get your face recognition, which they don't already do. Right. 1093 00:48:11,013 --> 00:48:13,432 They're already can fake your voice recognition. 1094 00:48:13,432 --> 00:48:13,891 They can. 1095 00:48:13,891 --> 00:48:15,684 They're almost there to, 1096 00:48:15,684 --> 00:48:18,729 you know, if you if you got a zoom thing or a retina scan or whatever. 1097 00:48:19,021 --> 00:48:22,691 And so what happens the day that all of your people's money starts 1098 00:48:22,691 --> 00:48:25,736 disappearing from the banks and they start losing confidence in the banks, is 1099 00:48:25,777 --> 00:48:28,780 because the AI can actually go in there and, well, 1100 00:48:28,947 --> 00:48:32,659 bad actors can go and use AI to, to, to get your bank. 1101 00:48:32,659 --> 00:48:34,119 And I think there's there's that why? 1102 00:48:34,119 --> 00:48:35,704 I don't have any money in the bank. Yeah. 1103 00:48:36,705 --> 00:48:38,916 What happens when the people who 1104 00:48:38,916 --> 00:48:40,834 people lose confidence in the banking system 1105 00:48:40,834 --> 00:48:43,670 because they're like, dude, I got money in the bank and frickin 1106 00:48:43,670 --> 00:48:46,465 somebody coming in and stealing it from me because they're faking my identity. 1107 00:48:46,465 --> 00:48:47,716 The banks start kicking it in, 1108 00:48:47,716 --> 00:48:49,843 then they don't like, are they going to be like, crap? 1109 00:48:49,843 --> 00:48:51,011 Bitcoin seems to be. 1110 00:48:51,011 --> 00:48:55,265 Or some kind of cryptocurrency seems to be a safer mechanism for my banking world. 1111 00:48:55,265 --> 00:48:57,517 And now they're they're the talking about official stablecoins. 1112 00:48:57,517 --> 00:49:02,522 And so that might be the move into crypto, whether it's Bitcoin or stablecoins 1113 00:49:02,522 --> 00:49:06,610 or the the official Chase JP Morgan coin, which is just a stablecoin. 1114 00:49:06,610 --> 00:49:09,196 It's not really the same as crypto, but it's something like that 1115 00:49:09,196 --> 00:49:10,072 I think is coming. 1116 00:49:10,072 --> 00:49:12,532 And you can play this clip when it does. 1117 00:49:12,532 --> 00:49:12,658 Yeah, 1118 00:49:12,658 --> 00:49:16,203 I wasn't going to get as specific as that, but I do think there will be some sort 1119 00:49:16,203 --> 00:49:20,290 of AI controversy where AI has been used in a bad actors 1120 00:49:20,290 --> 00:49:25,796 sense and will infiltrate some sort of end of the major scandal at some point. 1121 00:49:25,796 --> 00:49:28,423 And I just think it's, it's, it's building. 1122 00:49:28,423 --> 00:49:29,716 I feel like you can feel it building. 1123 00:49:29,716 --> 00:49:32,302 I think we're going to start to see a divergence. 1124 00:49:32,302 --> 00:49:36,598 I think we're going to see major divergence of AI because there's 1125 00:49:36,848 --> 00:49:42,396 we have so many of these different AI companies, how they've structured them 1126 00:49:42,396 --> 00:49:45,399 and set them up with the guardrails, everything else. 1127 00:49:45,399 --> 00:49:49,486 I think because of how these foundations have been set, 1128 00:49:50,278 --> 00:49:54,157 I think what we will start to see is major differences 1129 00:49:54,825 --> 00:49:57,494 amongst different AIS 1130 00:49:57,494 --> 00:50:01,748 in a way that lots of times probably we didn't understand or predict. 1131 00:50:02,833 --> 00:50:06,003 And especially when you're getting into like other countries 1132 00:50:06,795 --> 00:50:09,798 because of those guardrails and how they're set up. 1133 00:50:09,881 --> 00:50:12,884 And I think that's going to become more and more predominant. 1134 00:50:13,343 --> 00:50:17,556 And I think that has lots of implications that we don't quite know or understand, 1135 00:50:17,556 --> 00:50:22,394 especially how they're built into companies or social structures 1136 00:50:22,894 --> 00:50:24,855 or governance. 1137 00:50:24,855 --> 00:50:29,943 And which one you're deciding to use and how then it's being used. 1138 00:50:30,277 --> 00:50:33,447 It's like having three different presidents, right? 1139 00:50:33,822 --> 00:50:37,784 It has their own their own wants, needs their own thoughts. 1140 00:50:37,784 --> 00:50:40,704 The way that they go about actually processing 1141 00:50:40,704 --> 00:50:44,291 or thinking the outcomes they want and why, predicated on 1142 00:50:44,291 --> 00:50:47,836 how they were raised, their political, religious beliefs, everything else. 1143 00:50:48,128 --> 00:50:51,673 And I think that's going to become more and more evident by the end of the year. 1144 00:50:52,174 --> 00:50:55,218 And that's going to cause a lot of interesting discussions 1145 00:50:55,594 --> 00:51:00,348 about AI is the differences amongst them and what that means. 1146 00:51:02,768 --> 00:51:04,311 I, I, 1147 00:51:04,311 --> 00:51:08,774 I could talk on this for hours, but I think top of mind right 1148 00:51:08,774 --> 00:51:13,403 now is simply the companies that we think of when we think of AI. 1149 00:51:13,695 --> 00:51:17,616 I think that's going to change a whole lot over the next couple of years, 1150 00:51:17,949 --> 00:51:19,785 even the next few months potentially. 1151 00:51:19,785 --> 00:51:23,622 We talked last year, maybe it was early this year about deep SK, which was the, 1152 00:51:24,247 --> 00:51:27,250 the Chinese company that that, came out with. 1153 00:51:27,959 --> 00:51:30,462 I like a large language model 1154 00:51:30,462 --> 00:51:33,340 that in theory rivaled, OpenAI 1155 00:51:33,340 --> 00:51:36,968 for a tiny fraction of the cost and memory. 1156 00:51:37,302 --> 00:51:41,306 And now there are a number of other Chinese companies that have come out over 1157 00:51:41,306 --> 00:51:45,018 the last few months that are putting out, large language models 1158 00:51:45,018 --> 00:51:49,523 and AI models that are absolutely, like, crushing what we have in the US. 1159 00:51:49,523 --> 00:51:52,150 We don't hear about them as much simply because, 1160 00:51:52,150 --> 00:51:54,402 it happened once and now it's not talked about as much. 1161 00:51:54,402 --> 00:51:57,405 And frankly, the US models are getting a lot better too. 1162 00:51:58,115 --> 00:52:00,909 But I think there's some, some 1163 00:52:00,909 --> 00:52:03,912 interesting stuff going on in other parts of the world 1164 00:52:04,079 --> 00:52:07,791 that may surprise us at some point that we're not totally ready for. 1165 00:52:07,958 --> 00:52:12,671 And then domestically, I think it's a lot like the internet revolution where, 1166 00:52:13,380 --> 00:52:18,635 we always expected certain companies to, to kind of win in the internet space 1167 00:52:18,635 --> 00:52:21,721 because they were big, pre-Internet and early internet. 1168 00:52:21,721 --> 00:52:23,557 So we expected Yahoo to be big. 1169 00:52:23,557 --> 00:52:26,852 And we expected, all of those companies like Yahoo to be back. 1170 00:52:26,852 --> 00:52:30,522 And we had no idea that, like, whole new companies would emerge 1171 00:52:30,856 --> 00:52:33,608 in different verticals and vertically integrated things 1172 00:52:33,608 --> 00:52:37,070 like Google and, Amazon is a great example. 1173 00:52:37,070 --> 00:52:41,199 Like, nobody would have expected a company like Amazon to exist. 1174 00:52:41,199 --> 00:52:43,785 I think we're going to start to see a lot of that in AI as well. 1175 00:52:43,785 --> 00:52:46,872 We're going to see new companies emerge that have vertical integration 1176 00:52:46,872 --> 00:52:52,085 that we don't even think about in terms of, of, of AI today and, and sectors and, 1177 00:52:52,085 --> 00:52:56,256 and products and services and AI that we that will exist, that 1178 00:52:56,256 --> 00:53:00,343 we don't think about one thing to realize is that there are companies like meta 1179 00:53:00,552 --> 00:53:05,348 that are spending an absolute ridiculous amount of money on AI talent. 1180 00:53:05,932 --> 00:53:08,351 They just hired a whole bunch of of engineers 1181 00:53:08,351 --> 00:53:11,646 that they're paying between 10 and $100 million per year. 1182 00:53:12,814 --> 00:53:13,732 And they're getting 1183 00:53:13,732 --> 00:53:16,735 between 10 and $100 million in signing bonuses. 1184 00:53:16,985 --> 00:53:21,865 They made an offer to one engineer for $1.5 billion for a ten year contract. 1185 00:53:21,865 --> 00:53:24,326 Turned them down, by the way. 1186 00:53:24,326 --> 00:53:26,995 So just to get an idea, like we're starting to see 1187 00:53:26,995 --> 00:53:30,790 AI engineers worth more than than the best athletes on the planet. 1188 00:53:31,208 --> 00:53:34,836 So, I think things are likely to change in the next couple of years, 1189 00:53:34,836 --> 00:53:36,254 especially as certain companies 1190 00:53:36,254 --> 00:53:39,216 start throwing a lot of money at these guys and gals. 1191 00:53:39,716 --> 00:53:43,970 And I think, again, it'll be a lot like, the internet revolution where we just 1192 00:53:43,970 --> 00:53:45,639 we can't predict what's coming, 1193 00:53:45,639 --> 00:53:48,934 but it's going to look very different in a year or 2 or 3 than it does today. 1194 00:53:48,975 --> 00:53:50,602 Fair. All right. 1195 00:53:50,602 --> 00:53:52,020 I like to end this off 1196 00:53:52,020 --> 00:53:55,899 kind of the same way we did last time where I go to Poly Market, 1197 00:53:56,942 --> 00:53:58,026 which is, if anyone 1198 00:53:58,026 --> 00:54:01,029 doesn't know, Poly Market is basically a betting site 1199 00:54:01,071 --> 00:54:03,615 that technically is not legal in the U.S at the moment, 1200 00:54:03,615 --> 00:54:06,618 but they're talking about making it possibly legal. 1201 00:54:07,118 --> 00:54:09,162 Where basically you can bet on anything. 1202 00:54:09,162 --> 00:54:12,457 So you just go to like what's trending and it's basically it's 1203 00:54:12,457 --> 00:54:17,003 what people think are an interesting thing to bet on at this, at this moment. 1204 00:54:17,003 --> 00:54:19,839 So obviously the fed decision in July is one of those things. 1205 00:54:19,839 --> 00:54:21,800 Will Powell be out as fed chair. 1206 00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,803 They're even betting on the election winner for 2028 1207 00:54:24,844 --> 00:54:28,723 Isaiah is right now is is one of the bets. 1208 00:54:28,723 --> 00:54:33,520 And JD Vance is winning heavily right now. 28%. 1209 00:54:33,812 --> 00:54:34,062 Yeah. 1210 00:54:34,062 --> 00:54:37,399 Can I tell funny if I tell a funny Poly Market story. 1211 00:54:37,941 --> 00:54:40,026 I saw an article or post. 1212 00:54:40,026 --> 00:54:43,989 It was even an article as a post, the other day where somebody posted 1213 00:54:43,989 --> 00:54:48,076 basically their Poly market account and they went from something like $500 1214 00:54:48,076 --> 00:54:51,246 to like $128,000 to some ridiculous 1215 00:54:51,496 --> 00:54:54,499 over the last six months, growth in their poly market accounts. 1216 00:54:54,791 --> 00:54:59,170 And if you looked at all their bets, basically all their bets were political 1217 00:54:59,504 --> 00:55:02,382 bets saying, no, nothing's going to happen. 1218 00:55:02,382 --> 00:55:03,883 So it was like, is Trump going to do this? 1219 00:55:03,883 --> 00:55:05,593 No. Is Trump going to do this? 1220 00:55:05,593 --> 00:55:07,262 No. Is Trump going to do this? No. 1221 00:55:07,262 --> 00:55:10,265 And basically it was just he was betting everything was going 1222 00:55:10,265 --> 00:55:13,393 to stay exactly the same and nothing was actually going to change. 1223 00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:18,356 And his account just went from like nothing to to over $100,000 in a couple. 1224 00:55:18,398 --> 00:55:22,319 And so obviously one of these, big ones, there's actually 1225 00:55:22,319 --> 00:55:26,197 three different things you can bet on for the Epstein files. 1226 00:55:26,197 --> 00:55:30,285 That's not including the, just lain Maxwell bets. 1227 00:55:30,702 --> 00:55:36,041 So one of the bets is, will they be made public in 2025? 1228 00:55:36,041 --> 00:55:40,837 And the current poly poly market betting is 31% chance. 1229 00:55:40,837 --> 00:55:45,675 So, Mauricio, do you think they're going to be made public in 2025? 1230 00:55:46,134 --> 00:55:46,843 What? I'm sorry. 1231 00:55:46,843 --> 00:55:47,677 What the. 1232 00:55:47,677 --> 00:55:50,263 This presumably the list or just documents in general. 1233 00:55:50,263 --> 00:55:53,266 The files significant files. Yeah. 1234 00:55:53,266 --> 00:55:54,809 I don't want to I don't think so. 1235 00:55:54,809 --> 00:55:56,144 I've heard a good argument against why. 1236 00:55:56,144 --> 00:55:59,606 And so I'm going to say no AJ no, no Jake 1237 00:56:00,231 --> 00:56:05,111 I mean I would have bet against the the prison tape being made available, but, 1238 00:56:05,653 --> 00:56:08,865 I guess the question is, is, was the prison tape made available? 1239 00:56:08,865 --> 00:56:09,532 Because 1240 00:56:10,617 --> 00:56:11,951 that's my that's my point. 1241 00:56:11,951 --> 00:56:15,121 Like what happens when and a whole bunch of files are released. 1242 00:56:15,121 --> 00:56:18,583 But people dispute whether they were the real files or they were doctor files 1243 00:56:18,583 --> 00:56:22,087 or made up files or Obama hoax files. 1244 00:56:22,295 --> 00:56:23,004 Like who? 1245 00:56:23,004 --> 00:56:24,506 Who do they pay out? 1246 00:56:24,506 --> 00:56:27,842 Like, that's just seems like a tough thing to to decide if you're going to pay out. 1247 00:56:28,843 --> 00:56:32,180 But I mean, I mean, there is a separate bet on Poly 1248 00:56:32,180 --> 00:56:37,310 Market of will more files be released by August 31st. 1249 00:56:37,310 --> 00:56:41,981 So there's basically saying all the same thing, like I think more files. Yes. 1250 00:56:42,482 --> 00:56:43,650 Yeah I'd say more files. 1251 00:56:43,650 --> 00:56:45,985 But what does that mean. Like one. 1252 00:56:45,985 --> 00:56:47,946 Like so like yeah absolutely. 1253 00:56:47,946 --> 00:56:50,407 Do I think we're going to get a client list. 1254 00:56:50,407 --> 00:56:51,658 Do I think no 1255 00:56:51,658 --> 00:56:53,660 we're not going to get the full files. 1256 00:56:53,660 --> 00:56:57,247 If anything documents would be released and the people's names would be blacked out 1257 00:56:58,248 --> 00:57:00,291 for their privacy and for their protection or whatever. 1258 00:57:00,291 --> 00:57:03,837 So even if you gave, I feel like that'd be worse than not releasing. 1259 00:57:05,797 --> 00:57:06,714 I never, but that's what I was saying. 1260 00:57:06,714 --> 00:57:07,006 They would 1261 00:57:07,006 --> 00:57:10,343 they would literally block out the names that everyone's just going to assume. 1262 00:57:10,343 --> 00:57:12,554 Every single blacked out thing is Trump. 1263 00:57:12,554 --> 00:57:13,430 Well, there are. 1264 00:57:13,430 --> 00:57:16,641 I don't think they would block out Clinton, but by the way, on Poly 1265 00:57:16,641 --> 00:57:19,769 Market it says who do you think the odds on favorite 1266 00:57:19,769 --> 00:57:24,315 is of the person who will be named in the newly released Epstein Files? 1267 00:57:24,482 --> 00:57:28,361 Bill Clinton, number one second is actually Prince Andrew. 1268 00:57:29,529 --> 00:57:31,573 So there's there's conspiracy theory. 1269 00:57:31,573 --> 00:57:33,533 The Prince Andrew has made influence here. 1270 00:57:33,533 --> 00:57:36,828 The problem the problem is you name any one person, that person's probably 1271 00:57:36,828 --> 00:57:42,041 got information about everybody else, and you run the risk of them releasing it. 1272 00:57:42,041 --> 00:57:45,128 So there is 7% who think Barack Obama 1273 00:57:45,170 --> 00:57:49,299 apparently is, is going to be used to be an Epstein freak. 1274 00:57:49,424 --> 00:57:51,342 They're, 9% Joe Biden. 1275 00:57:51,342 --> 00:57:54,512 Two I'm sure there's a few that would say Jimmy Carter also. 1276 00:57:56,598 --> 00:57:58,892 All right, anything else on here? 1277 00:57:58,892 --> 00:58:01,978 We can bet on ChatGPT five, we could talk about 1278 00:58:01,978 --> 00:58:04,981 Elon Musk and his net worth. 1279 00:58:05,231 --> 00:58:06,941 And any any other bets you guys want to. 1280 00:58:06,941 --> 00:58:10,195 I want to talk about Elon Musk in the, what you called the America Party. 1281 00:58:10,904 --> 00:58:12,947 Oh, do we think that's actually going to happen? 1282 00:58:12,947 --> 00:58:14,282 I don't think that's going to happen this year. 1283 00:58:14,282 --> 00:58:15,241 Not this year. 1284 00:58:15,241 --> 00:58:16,117 Like I think if 1285 00:58:16,117 --> 00:58:19,204 he were an American citizen and he could actually run for president, 1286 00:58:19,704 --> 00:58:23,041 you would think he'd have a lot more incentive to do it. 1287 00:58:24,125 --> 00:58:26,920 I think that's probably the only thing that would that would stop him. 1288 00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,255 Yeah, but he could always pick a good candidate I like. 1289 00:58:29,255 --> 00:58:30,757 I feel like 1290 00:58:30,757 --> 00:58:31,216 if you look 1291 00:58:31,216 --> 00:58:35,011 at our recent history of candidates, it shouldn't be that hard to find someone. 1292 00:58:35,011 --> 00:58:38,056 It would be nice to have real, actual options. 1293 00:58:38,556 --> 00:58:42,602 I mean, even the last election, we were only like 1294 00:58:42,685 --> 00:58:48,107 the options one was told and the other one was Trump. 1295 00:58:48,107 --> 00:58:51,945 Like we had literally the American people had like one option that they put forth, 1296 00:58:52,153 --> 00:58:53,363 the other one was given. 1297 00:58:53,363 --> 00:58:55,990 And I think that's just distain to a lot of people. 1298 00:58:55,990 --> 00:58:57,575 All right. This is what we're left with. 1299 00:58:57,575 --> 00:58:59,619 And I think there's a lot of desire for that. 1300 00:58:59,619 --> 00:59:02,372 So I'm not looking to start a political argument here. 1301 00:59:02,372 --> 00:59:05,291 But there's a lot of talk these days about is Trump going to make it 1302 00:59:05,291 --> 00:59:07,627 through the rest of his term or the rest of the year, 1303 00:59:07,627 --> 00:59:10,755 whether it be for some scandal, whether it be for health issues? 1304 00:59:11,506 --> 00:59:14,509 Do we want to talk about whether he's making it the rest of, 1305 00:59:14,968 --> 00:59:16,511 you know, he's not going anywhere. 1306 00:59:16,511 --> 00:59:20,181 I can't imagine him going anywhere unless somebody takes out 1307 00:59:20,265 --> 00:59:21,558 a bunch of people tried. 1308 00:59:21,558 --> 00:59:23,810 So a lot of people are losing a lot of money right now. 1309 00:59:23,810 --> 00:59:28,356 Maybe something will happen, but I, I don't I don't see any reason why 1310 00:59:28,356 --> 00:59:30,984 it would be more likely with him right now than any other person. 1311 00:59:30,984 --> 00:59:33,027 Okay. Ghislaine Maxwell pardon. 1312 00:59:33,027 --> 00:59:35,655 You know, at this point I think that's toxic. 1313 00:59:35,655 --> 00:59:39,492 If he does that that's like he's he's already more confused. 1314 00:59:39,492 --> 00:59:41,202 I'm on this like the Chinese. 1315 00:59:41,202 --> 00:59:44,205 Premier Xie out in 2025 which is there. 1316 00:59:44,205 --> 00:59:47,083 I don't know if there's news about that, but I'm sorry if I put $100 on. 1317 00:59:47,083 --> 00:59:50,086 No, which is like a slam dunk I'm going to make 10% of my money 1318 00:59:50,461 --> 00:59:51,754 is how these things work. 1319 00:59:51,754 --> 00:59:52,880 Not not straight up. 1320 00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:54,215 I just said no $0.90. 1321 00:59:54,215 --> 00:59:56,926 And I guess if I put $100 down, I'm going to win 111. 1322 00:59:56,926 --> 00:59:59,262 That position being was not going to be out. 1323 00:59:59,262 --> 01:00:04,183 And then if I put yes, it's I get 8 to 1 odds, but still 10% seems like a good 1324 01:00:05,226 --> 01:00:06,102 you know it's almost. 1325 01:00:06,102 --> 01:00:07,645 Yeah. Well that that was Jay's point. 1326 01:00:07,645 --> 01:00:10,189 If you just bet he probably bet all those. You just bet. 1327 01:00:10,189 --> 01:00:12,275 No no no no no no. 1328 01:00:12,275 --> 01:00:14,319 Well the problem is, is that it just takes you 1329 01:00:14,319 --> 01:00:18,323 to lose one of those ten, and it offsets all your other wins. 1330 01:00:18,323 --> 01:00:19,866 So that's that's kind of the way it works. 1331 01:00:19,866 --> 01:00:23,036 But I'm not now because I'm not losing neither one of my losing. 1332 01:00:23,036 --> 01:00:26,039 I put $100 to win 800 or 1 dollars to win 111. 1333 01:00:26,247 --> 01:00:29,500 Jay, you're the poker guy, isn't not the EV on that pretty good. 1334 01:00:29,959 --> 01:00:32,503 I'm not sure what you're looking at, but there's also the vig. 1335 01:00:32,503 --> 01:00:35,840 You're also paying the, All right, all right, all right, let's move on. 1336 01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:38,176 Let's move on. All right, all right. 1337 01:00:38,176 --> 01:00:39,010 It's all I got, guys. 1338 01:00:39,010 --> 01:00:41,846 Any other any other fun predictions? Are we? 1339 01:00:41,846 --> 01:00:45,850 I, I think we like hypothetical situations. 1340 01:00:45,850 --> 01:00:48,394 I think is, I got a few of those. 1341 01:00:48,394 --> 01:00:51,147 If you want to move on to those, do it. Let's do hypotheticals. 1342 01:00:51,147 --> 01:00:52,982 All right, I got I got a fun one. 1343 01:00:52,982 --> 01:00:56,194 You get $50 million, 1344 01:00:57,320 --> 01:00:59,697 but you have to figure out a 1345 01:00:59,697 --> 01:01:04,035 way to get a Wikipedia page made about you. 1346 01:01:04,035 --> 01:01:06,663 And you can't, like, ask somebody to do it. 1347 01:01:06,663 --> 01:01:10,124 Like, you have to basically do something that is significant 1348 01:01:10,124 --> 01:01:13,127 enough that wicked 1349 01:01:13,252 --> 01:01:17,048 someone writes a Wikipedia page about you, do you think you could do it? So. 1350 01:01:17,048 --> 01:01:22,261 So I follow this thread and the general consensus was 1351 01:01:22,261 --> 01:01:26,683 you probably have to do something pretty bad to get the Wikipedia page. 1352 01:01:26,683 --> 01:01:29,686 Like you'd have to be pretty or embarrassing or embarrassing 1353 01:01:29,686 --> 01:01:31,312 to get a Wikipedia page. Well, what would you do? 1354 01:01:31,312 --> 01:01:34,232 AJ, wait, wait, what does it take to get a Wikipedia page? 1355 01:01:34,232 --> 01:01:37,276 AJ you can't write a Wikipedia page for me. 1356 01:01:37,735 --> 01:01:40,655 No, you can't like you can't like the rules are. 1357 01:01:40,655 --> 01:01:42,490 You can't ask someone to do it for you. 1358 01:01:42,490 --> 01:01:46,577 They someone just has to take it upon themselves to go and write one. 1359 01:01:46,577 --> 01:01:50,707 And the reason they would do that is if you did something newsworthy, significant. 1360 01:01:50,707 --> 01:01:53,501 Oh, I'll give you a thousand bucks to go write a Wikipedia page about me. 1361 01:01:53,501 --> 01:01:57,213 But the bar is actually pretty, so you probably couldn't get one where 1362 01:01:57,255 --> 01:01:58,756 I couldn't get one. 1363 01:01:58,756 --> 01:01:59,924 As of a year or two ago. 1364 01:01:59,924 --> 01:02:03,136 Not to say that that I should be able to get to the final table at the World 1365 01:02:03,136 --> 01:02:05,680 Series of Poker, I don't know, do you know, how about your own Wikipedia page? 1366 01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:07,223 Because it they. 1367 01:02:07,223 --> 01:02:08,433 So it's funny 1368 01:02:08,433 --> 01:02:11,519 because I have a lot of little things and if you put them together seems like. 1369 01:02:11,519 --> 01:02:14,647 Yeah, he's written five books and he's done this in real estate 1370 01:02:14,647 --> 01:02:17,567 and he did this and technology did this in poker. 1371 01:02:17,567 --> 01:02:21,070 But it has to be one thing that's notable enough. 1372 01:02:21,070 --> 01:02:22,822 And they've cracked down. 1373 01:02:22,822 --> 01:02:25,366 I had a page, a few years ago and they took it down, 1374 01:02:25,366 --> 01:02:28,327 actually, and I did not create it myself either. 1375 01:02:28,369 --> 01:02:29,370 So that's the question. 1376 01:02:29,370 --> 01:02:30,955 Do you guys do you think you could do it, Jay? 1377 01:02:30,955 --> 01:02:31,748 Do you think you could do it? 1378 01:02:31,748 --> 01:02:34,250 You've obviously had some thought about this for 50 million. 1379 01:02:34,250 --> 01:02:35,334 I'd certainly try. 1380 01:02:35,334 --> 01:02:38,546 Yeah I do, I mean but the problem is once 1381 01:02:38,546 --> 01:02:41,549 you create one then you have no control of what gets added to it, right? 1382 01:02:41,591 --> 01:02:43,176 No, of course not. 1383 01:02:43,176 --> 01:02:44,010 That's not the problem. 1384 01:02:44,010 --> 01:02:47,764 The problem is, is can you can you get can you do something 1385 01:02:47,764 --> 01:02:50,767 significant enough in let's say you have a week. 1386 01:02:51,225 --> 01:02:51,851 Oh, a week. 1387 01:02:51,851 --> 01:02:54,103 Wait, I think I got the new thing out to do it. 1388 01:02:54,103 --> 01:02:58,316 And then I could build out enough publicity around it too. 1389 01:02:58,316 --> 01:02:59,817 Yeah. I mean, you got to think, 1390 01:02:59,817 --> 01:03:02,820 okay, I'm willing to spend 20 million to win 50, right? 1391 01:03:02,904 --> 01:03:05,364 For me, it would be a little bit longer. 1392 01:03:05,364 --> 01:03:08,409 But I'd probably try and run for political office or do something 1393 01:03:08,409 --> 01:03:11,496 political where a lot of people know you only have a week. Jay. 1394 01:03:11,496 --> 01:03:13,122 That was I would I try? 1395 01:03:13,122 --> 01:03:15,625 Yeah. I have no idea how I would do it though. 1396 01:03:15,625 --> 01:03:16,542 You could just get arrested. 1397 01:03:16,542 --> 01:03:19,879 But for peeing on the, you know, the white House lawn or something, I don't know, 1398 01:03:20,379 --> 01:03:20,838 I'm not sure. 1399 01:03:20,838 --> 01:03:23,007 I'm not sure you're getting a Wikipedia page for that. 1400 01:03:23,007 --> 01:03:24,550 You'd have to be pretty funny. 1401 01:03:24,550 --> 01:03:26,719 I can't answer that because I already have a Wikipedia page. 1402 01:03:26,719 --> 01:03:29,347 But you. Oh, let's add to it. Yeah. 1403 01:03:29,347 --> 01:03:32,350 I mean, athletes in general just get Wikipedia page. So. 1404 01:03:32,809 --> 01:03:34,435 All right, I got one more. 1405 01:03:34,435 --> 01:03:38,356 If you could pick one brand that you don't have to do anything, 1406 01:03:38,356 --> 01:03:39,023 you basically 1407 01:03:39,023 --> 01:03:43,027 just become an ambassador for them and you get everything free for them. 1408 01:03:43,319 --> 01:03:43,986 Who would you pick? 1409 01:03:43,986 --> 01:03:47,573 And this can't be like a, like an overarching it can't be like target 1410 01:03:47,949 --> 01:03:51,536 and like you get all this stuff in target or like, you know, 1411 01:03:52,119 --> 01:03:55,790 you can't be like, General Mills and you get all of their food like, 1412 01:03:55,873 --> 01:04:00,378 it's got to be like one specific brand that sells black stone. 1413 01:04:03,422 --> 01:04:04,298 They got to sell it. 1414 01:04:04,298 --> 01:04:07,468 They got to sell products that they can that they can give to you for free. 1415 01:04:07,510 --> 01:04:09,220 Costco. You can't do Costco. 1416 01:04:09,220 --> 01:04:12,223 But Kirkland would count, I don't know, Porsche, Lamborghini. 1417 01:04:12,515 --> 01:04:14,475 Yeah, I want to do chemist. 1418 01:04:14,475 --> 01:04:15,685 Yeah, but think about that. 1419 01:04:15,685 --> 01:04:17,478 Like, would you like, would you really want to do Kirkland 1420 01:04:17,478 --> 01:04:18,938 or would you want to do Rolls Royce? 1421 01:04:18,938 --> 01:04:20,898 Yeah, Rolls Royce, that's what I'm talking about. 1422 01:04:20,898 --> 01:04:23,442 Or like or one of my thoughts was like, what? 1423 01:04:23,442 --> 01:04:27,363 Like a brand like Mitsubishi or Yamaha because they make so much random 1424 01:04:27,363 --> 01:04:28,155 shit, right? 1425 01:04:28,155 --> 01:04:31,617 Like Yamaha, you could get a piano or a, 1426 01:04:32,326 --> 01:04:35,204 or a, like a motorbike, you know, it. 1427 01:04:35,204 --> 01:04:39,125 It's like they're kind of all over the map or what's, like a 1428 01:04:39,208 --> 01:04:43,004 there's got to be a company that makes, like, private jets and others. 1429 01:04:43,004 --> 01:04:45,673 So then you got to pay like the upkeep for a private jet. 1430 01:04:45,673 --> 01:04:48,134 I know Kirkland's not a bad answer. Like you can pretty much. 1431 01:04:48,134 --> 01:04:48,634 If I do it. 1432 01:04:48,634 --> 01:04:51,470 If I do, if I do some B, will I get a house? 1433 01:04:51,470 --> 01:04:53,890 They don't. They don't really sell products, though. They don't really count. 1434 01:04:53,890 --> 01:04:56,142 So what's your final answer? J going with Kurt Kirkland? 1435 01:04:57,143 --> 01:04:57,977 I'm thinking of, like, 1436 01:04:57,977 --> 01:05:01,355 really high end wine brands, but yeah, I probably do go with Kirkland. 1437 01:05:01,731 --> 01:05:03,900 Plautus. What is that? 1438 01:05:03,900 --> 01:05:04,817 It's a plain company. 1439 01:05:04,817 --> 01:05:07,820 They make the PC twelves and a PC 24. 1440 01:05:08,529 --> 01:05:09,697 Why? Why not just why not? 1441 01:05:09,697 --> 01:05:12,992 Boeing I really like the PC 24 stuff. 1442 01:05:13,034 --> 01:05:15,786 That's. 1443 01:05:15,786 --> 01:05:16,162 Where you see. 1444 01:05:16,162 --> 01:05:20,124 Oh, how about you, either Gulfstream or Netjets Gulfstream going. 1445 01:05:20,416 --> 01:05:24,211 Yeah, I think you still have to pay for the pilots and the gas. 1446 01:05:24,670 --> 01:05:26,839 Yeah, I think I got to go with like 1447 01:05:26,839 --> 01:05:30,343 I would look into it more, but I think like Yamaha or Honda or Mitsubishi, 1448 01:05:30,343 --> 01:05:33,346 one of those companies that makes like Yamaha would be a good one. 1449 01:05:33,638 --> 01:05:34,138 Yeah. 1450 01:05:34,138 --> 01:05:37,600 When you get instruments you get transportation. 1451 01:05:37,808 --> 01:05:39,518 Yeah. You can get a Yamaha hockey stick. 1452 01:05:40,561 --> 01:05:40,811 Yeah. 1453 01:05:40,811 --> 01:05:44,482 No I don't know if I want a Yamaha hockey stick, but it's all I got. 1454 01:05:44,482 --> 01:05:45,858 Guys, for an episode. 1455 01:05:45,858 --> 01:05:48,069 We, we got got it over an hour. 1456 01:05:48,069 --> 01:05:49,654 You say, what did you just say? 1457 01:05:49,654 --> 01:05:51,489 Can we can we say that this is the last time 1458 01:05:51,489 --> 01:05:52,949 we're doing the silly prediction show? 1459 01:05:52,949 --> 01:05:55,660 No, Carl just said it was a fun episode. 1460 01:05:55,660 --> 01:05:57,286 He's drunk. Don't listen to him. 1461 01:05:57,286 --> 01:05:59,372 He didn't mean to say it. He wants to take it back. 1462 01:05:59,372 --> 01:06:00,456 But he said it. 1463 01:06:00,456 --> 01:06:01,123 I've got to go. 1464 01:06:01,123 --> 01:06:03,376 I'm getting it back now. It's going to. 1465 01:06:03,376 --> 01:06:05,086 Jay is going to clip that and just. 1466 01:06:05,086 --> 01:06:08,047 Oh, no doubt that's our intro. 1467 01:06:08,047 --> 01:06:11,175 The only thing was fun was the was the stuff at the end 1468 01:06:11,258 --> 01:06:12,551 had nothing to do with the predictions. 1469 01:06:12,551 --> 01:06:15,554 I was that's what it's always fun hanging out with you guys. 1470 01:06:15,972 --> 01:06:18,683 Got any plugs? What do you got, Mauricio? 1471 01:06:18,683 --> 01:06:19,725 I don't have any plugs today. 1472 01:06:19,725 --> 01:06:23,980 I'm going to plug, AJ's YouTube channel. 1473 01:06:24,355 --> 01:06:27,191 Go to AJ, YouTube channel. Gracias. 1474 01:06:27,191 --> 01:06:27,817 It's not AJ. 1475 01:06:27,817 --> 01:06:31,904 It should just be aj.com, but it's like is it self storage income.com. 1476 01:06:31,904 --> 01:06:33,072 It's AJ Osborne. 1477 01:06:34,740 --> 01:06:38,285 Wow I think even agent can't afford aj.com 1478 01:06:38,619 --> 01:06:42,248 AJ get on it from AJ osborne.com cosmic. 1479 01:06:42,665 --> 01:06:44,583 Or you can just google his name. 1480 01:06:44,583 --> 01:06:46,168 I spent a lot on J scott.com. 1481 01:06:46,168 --> 01:06:47,795 Yeah crazy. 1482 01:06:47,795 --> 01:06:51,424 You know how much that that that can be a game for next week. 1483 01:06:51,424 --> 01:06:55,511 Oh I did you paid all upfront or do you do payments over time all upfront. 1484 01:06:56,137 --> 01:06:57,013 It's not that you just 1485 01:06:57,013 --> 01:07:00,766 maybe you just made me go and look at Kyle wilson.com to see what it was. 1486 01:07:00,766 --> 01:07:04,895 And it's that guy, the Jim Rohn guy I bought all my kids names. 1487 01:07:04,895 --> 01:07:08,357 Terrell, all my kids names, my wife names I bought them bought them all. 1488 01:07:08,566 --> 01:07:11,527 You should get them if you can buy them. 1489 01:07:11,527 --> 01:07:14,030 Yeah. That's interesting. 1490 01:07:14,030 --> 01:07:15,281 AJ, what do you got? Plug. 1491 01:07:17,825 --> 01:07:18,576 You know what? 1492 01:07:18,576 --> 01:07:21,996 The tech fund we are, we open up. 1493 01:07:21,996 --> 01:07:24,123 Two weeks ago, I think I had talked about a couple times. 1494 01:07:24,123 --> 01:07:28,627 I'll stick with that one side about the the SAS businesses and, our industry 1495 01:07:28,836 --> 01:07:31,672 or raising for that diversified, 1496 01:07:31,672 --> 01:07:33,966 fund link will be in the description. 1497 01:07:33,966 --> 01:07:36,010 Jay, what do you got? 1498 01:07:36,010 --> 01:07:37,386 I'm gonna do conference connect. 1499 01:07:37,386 --> 01:07:40,723 So we're going to do a big conference this, this this weekend. 1500 01:07:41,348 --> 01:07:44,435 Actually a lot of people who are going to the to the limitless conference 1501 01:07:44,435 --> 01:07:47,688 this weekend bought their tickets on Conference connect.com. 1502 01:07:47,938 --> 01:07:49,732 And if they did, they got 10% off. 1503 01:07:49,732 --> 01:07:52,985 And if you want to buy tickets to, to any conferences 1504 01:07:52,985 --> 01:07:56,113 you might be going to in the near future, go to conference connect. 1505 01:07:56,113 --> 01:07:57,615 Com you probably get 10% off. 1506 01:07:57,615 --> 01:07:59,408 And if you don't if it doesn't offer you 1507 01:07:59,408 --> 01:08:02,620 10% off, shoot me an email and I'll negotiate it. 1508 01:08:03,329 --> 01:08:07,208 We do negotiate individually with conferences so you don't see it on there. 1509 01:08:07,249 --> 01:08:08,375 Maybe we can work it out. 1510 01:08:09,668 --> 01:08:11,295 If and if you are going to limitless, 1511 01:08:11,295 --> 01:08:11,962 if you're listening to this 1512 01:08:11,962 --> 01:08:15,758 or you're limitless or you just got back from limitless, then 1513 01:08:15,758 --> 01:08:19,762 leave them a review, go check out, you speaking limitless, Mauricio. 1514 01:08:19,804 --> 01:08:20,846 You guys are both speaking, right? 1515 01:08:20,846 --> 01:08:24,391 Go leave them a review from our, unconference conference. 1516 01:08:24,683 --> 01:08:26,685 Connect.com. Turn them into top speakers. 1517 01:08:26,685 --> 01:08:29,647 They're not really top speakers at the moment, but, 1518 01:08:29,939 --> 01:08:32,942 we are definitely top speakers, just to be clear on that. 1519 01:08:34,860 --> 01:08:36,487 And if not, just go follow my wife. 1520 01:08:36,487 --> 01:08:38,489 Badass investor. 1521 01:08:38,489 --> 01:08:40,699 All right, guys, good. 1522 01:08:40,699 --> 01:08:42,660 Good. Hanging out. I always love hanging out with you. 1523 01:08:42,660 --> 01:08:44,829 Hopefully we all back next week. 1524 01:08:44,829 --> 01:08:47,414 Heck, yeah, we'll be out. 1525 01:08:47,414 --> 01:08:50,376 All right. I will see you next Thursday. 1526 01:08:50,501 --> 01:08:51,043 See you guys.