Welcome back to Football Army, your essential guide for navigating really just the absolute chaos of the NFL and NCAA season.

It's the perfect word for it.

We are officially in that late November stretch where everything just feels bigger, the stakes are massive, Every single snap feels like it could decide a team's entire season.

That's absolutely right.

You know, if September is about figuring out who you are, late November is about trying to survive with that identity.

And nothing, i mean nothing kicks off this high stakes period like Thanksgiving Day football.

It's the best tradition.

Yeah, and we've got a huge slate of games that could really shake up the playoff picture in both conferences.

So here's our mission for you today.

We're going to break down that entire three game Thanksgiving tripleheader.

We'll get into the history, the key stats, and yeah, our predictions.

And after that we're diving into the big league wide stories, the total turmoil in the NFC East, the coaching hot seats that are getting warmer by the minute, and the well the really polarizing rise of some of these rocky quarterbacks.

Then we're shifting to college for rivalry week, we have maybe the biggest the game Ohio State versus Michigan that we've seen in years.

Oh, it's huge.

And we'll also track the coaching carousel.

You've got Jim More on the move and of course the constant speculation around Lane Kiffen.

And finally we'll give you those essential fantasy football insights you need.

That final push for the playoffs is here and every lineup decision counts.

All right, let's get into it, starting with the tradition itself, Thanksgiving.

Yeah, and you can't talk about Thanksgiving football without first talking about the man who basically was the voice of the holiday for so many.

Of us, the late great John Madden.

Exactly for me growing up, the sounds of Thanksgiving were, you know, the parade on TV, Family in the kitchen and John Madden's voice over the game.

It's so true.

He just made it feel like more than a game.

And the NFL is doing a really wonderful tribute this year, making sure that legacy is front and set on all three broadcasts, Fox, CBS, and NBC, which is great to see.

Yeah, and the details are really thoughtful.

First off, every player on all six teams will wear a special Madden patch on their jersey.

But the part I love, the part that's just so Madden is the coin toss the tur duck and coin the tur ducking coin.

On the headside, you've got a silhouette of Coach Madden and on the tail side a six legged turduckan you know, honoring his favorite holiday dish.

It's just perfectly absurd, isn't it.

Only Madden could inspire that, right.

But it's not all fun and games.

It's also about the future.

They're giving out a Madden Thanksgiving MVP Award after each game.

And the winner gets more than just a trophy exactly.

The NFL Foundation makes a ten thousand dollars donation in that player's name to a youth football program.

It's just a perfect way to tie his legacy to the next generation of players.

Love that, Okay, let's get into the action.

First up, the NSC North Clash, Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions one o'clock Eastern.

This game is just in history.

It's the twenty third time these two have met on Thanksgiving.

That's an NFL record, And.

The Lions actually have the edge on Turkey Day, right, They're twelve nine to one they do.

And look, motivation is everything for Detroit.

Here.

They got crushed by the Packers twenty seven to thirteen way back in Week one at Lambeau.

That loss has been sitting with them all year.

You have to think they've had this one circled.

Oh for sure.

Aiden Hutchinson basically said as much.

He called this and I'm quoting as big as any game will play in the regular season.

This is their chance to make a statement on a national stage.

So the key to this game, it feels like it comes down to one thing for Detroit and that's protecting Jared Gough.

That is the entire ballgame.

Look Green Bay's defense, they've been quietly really good at getting after the quarterback.

They generate pressure on thirty five percent of snaps.

That's the sixth highest rate in the whole league.

Now here's the killer stat for Detroit.

When Jared Goff faces pressure this season, his QBR his total quarterback rating drops by an incredible sixty nine points.

Sixty nine points.

That's I mean, that's not just a drop that's falling off a cliff.

It's the biggest drop in the NFL.

And it tells you everything you need to know.

Golf is a great quarterback when he's clean, when he can throw on time.

But when you force him off his spot, when that interior pressure gets there, his mechanics break down and he becomes a completely different player.

And that's exactly what the Packers defense is designed to do.

Right.

They'll try to create that chaos up the middle and force him into mistakes.

If Green Bay hits that thirty five percent pressure rate, it could completely stall out Detroit's offense.

But on the flip side, the Lions have an absolute weapon who doesn't need a clean pocket to do damage.

Jimyer Gibbs.

He has been just electric.

He just won his second NFC Offensive Player of the Week award in three weeks.

His game against the Giants was insane.

Two hundred and nineteen scrimmageyards, three touchdowns.

He's averaging what like one hundred and ninety four yards over.

His last three It's unbelievable production, and he's on the verge of making some serious history.

Right the touchdown milestone, yep.

With just one more touchdown of any kind, rushing, receiving, whatever, he becomes only the fifth player in NFL history to get forty five total touchdowns in his first three seasons.

And the other four guys on that list are.

Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gail Sayers, and Earl Campbell.

So just a few Hall of famers, no big deal, just you.

Know, the mount Rushmore of running backs.

That's the kind of air he's breathing right now.

So what are the predictions looking like?

The line is pretty tight it.

Is, Detroit is favored by just two and a half points.

Most analysts like Maldonado and Moody are picking the lines to win and cover scores like thirty four to twenty four, thirty twenty seven.

The FPI gives them a slight edge about fifty four percent.

But not everyone agrees.

Nope, Walder has the Packers pulling off the upset twenty three to seventeen.

And you do have to factor in the coaching.

Rex Ryan has been all over Dan Campbell's clock management this year.

Yeah, that's a legitimate concern.

In a tight divisional game, one bad decision late in the fourth quarter could be the difference.

Campbell can a FOURD one of those aggressive gambles that don't pay off.

And Packers fans have seen this movie before, just last year, they came in as huge underdogs and spoiled the Lions.

Thanksgiving, they did an eight point five point dog one twenty nine, twenty two, and that win really kickstarted their whole playoff run.

They need that same kind of gritty, defensive performance on Thursday.

All right, let's move to the afternoon game, the four thirty eastern kickoff, Kansas City Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys.

A classic matchup, and for the Chiefs, this is all about building on that last win, that.

Wild comeback against the Colts.

They were down eleven and the fourth and pulled it out in overtime.

Right, and Patrick Mahomes said it himself this week.

They need to build off that momentum.

But that win was more than just a w.

It was like a psychological hurdle.

They finally cleared.

The one score game narrative.

Exactly before that game, they were zero and five and one score games this season, which is just bizarre when you remember that last year on their way to the Super Bowl, they won a record twelve and zh in those same situations.

So getting that win it kind of proves they still have that clutch gene in them, even if it's been heightened all year.

It shows it's still there now for the Cowboys.

Their path to victory is crystal clear.

It's all about play action.

Right es Dallas the run, then hit him over.

The top one hundred percent.

Dak Prescott has the best QBR in the entire league on play action passes.

This year, He's tied for the league lead with thirteen touchdowns off of play action.

And that's a huge problem for the Chiefs defense, isn't it.

It's their biggest vulnerability.

Kansas City's defense allows an eighty two percent completion rate on play action.

They're giving up almost ten yards per attempt.

That's third worse in the NFL.

So if Dallas can get their ground game going early.

It opens up everything.

The Chiefs will have to bring a safety down into the box and that's when Prescott can take his shots downfield.

It's a massive tactical mismatch.

If Dallas can exploit it, good news for them.

On the personnel front, two George Pickens and Cavante Turpin are both good to go.

No injury designation yep.

And you know, stepping away from the x's and o's for a second, a really great story out of Dallas this.

Week the Dak Prescott initiative.

Yeah, it came out that his charity initiative for cancer screening actually led to a Cowboys executive getting diagnosed early with stage two cancer and it basically saved his life.

It's just a great reminder of the impact these guys can have off the field.

It's absolutely incredible story.

Okay, back to the game.

The predictions here seem pretty one sided.

Yeah, the consensus is heavily on the Chiefs, Maldonado, Moody, Walder, they all have Casey winning.

The FPI is really bullish too, gives them a sixty three point six percent chance to win by about five points.

But there's a trend we need to talk about.

The betting trends.

Yeah, they tell a different story.

The Cowboys have been fantastic as underdogs this year.

They're four and one against the spread.

Meaning they played better than people expect exactly.

And the Chiefs, on the other hand, are just one and four against the spread on the road.

So while everyone expects a Chiefs win, the numbers suggest this game could be much much closer than people think.

If the Chiefs need some Thanksgiving road magic to look back on they've got it.

Oh yeah, you go back to nineteen ninety six Marcus Allen.

He passed Walter Payton for the all time rushing touchdown record with his one hundred and eleventh score against the Lions, helping Casey rally for a huge comeback win.

That's the kind of grit they'll need in Dallas.

And finally, the nightcap the eight to twenty kickoff an AFC North grudge match Cincinnati Bengals at the Baltimore Ravens.

And the entire story here is the return of one man, Joe Burrow.

Joe Burrow is back after missing nine games with that Turftow injury.

And look, the Bengals playoff hopes are on life support.

ESPN gives them like a one percent chance, But that doesn't matter to Burrow.

He came out and said, I'm not going to live my life and play this game scared of something happening.

If he's healthy enough to play, he's playing, which is classic Burrorow.

But we have to ask, what does a healthy enough Joe Burrow look like.

That Turftow injury is no joke for a quarterback's mobility.

That's the huge question.

It limits your ability to push off to extend plays.

Does this turn the Bengals into a purely short, passing, timing based offense, because if it does, that plays right into the hands of a Ravens defense built to get pressure up the middle.

And this isn't just any game.

This is a bitter rivalry.

Oh yeah, Burr City always dreamed of playing on Thanksgiving, but the reality is just pure AFC North hate.

He said, you don't like them.

It's a division rivalry and the Bengals are trying to snap a four game losing streak to Baltimore.

On the Ravens side, Lamar Jackson is practicing in full which is good news, but his recent play has been a little concerning.

It has zero touchdowns and two turnovers in his last two starts.

The defense is holding up their ind but the offense has been sputtering.

You have to wonder if all those nagging injuries, the tow, the ankle are preventing him from being the Lamar we're used to seeing.

So the predictions are kind of reflecting that offense of uncertainty.

Right they are.

The Ravens are favored by touchdown seven points, but both Dejohnny and Dubin are picking the Bengals to cover that spread.

They're predicting really close games like twenty three to twenty one, twenty four to twenty Ravens.

The thinking being that Baltimore's offense just isn't explosive enough to blow them out exactly.

Their offense is ranked twenty first in the league.

They're not built for blowouts, and Burrow, even at eighty or ninety percent is good enough to keep the Bengals in this game and make it a classic down to the wired divisional fight.

All right, that sets the stage for a massive Thanksgiving.

But the news cycle, as we know, never sleeps.

Let's get into some of the bigger headlines shaking up the league.

And we have to start in the NFC East with the spectacular collapse happening in Philadelphia.

It's a meltdown.

Blowing a twenty one point lead to the Cowboys.

That wasn't just a loss, that felt like it exposed something rotten at the core.

It did, and the stats are just damning.

I mean, they have the worst third and out rate in the league since the twenty fourteen Raiders.

The twenty fourteen Raiders.

That's a five alarm fire.

It's a total structural failure on offense.

And when you can't stay on the field, it just puts immense pressure on your defense.

It kills your field position.

It's a recipe for losing.

Their overall success rate is down to forty percent, that's twenty.

Fifth in the league, and you're starting to see the cracks show in the locker room.

Former Eagles QB Rodney Pe called out AJ Brown's body language and public frustration.

Yeah, and that stuff matters when your number one receiver is openly unhappy.

It absolutely affects the quarterback.

It undermines Jalen Hurts leadership at a time when he's already facing questions about his own play and the.

Running game isn't helping him out at all.

Sequon Barkley, I mean, the explosiveness just isn't there.

It's gone ten carries in that loss.

And the big stat is he has only two rushes of over twenty yards all season.

Two after having seventeen last year.

Right, he's not creating those chunk plays that the offense desperately needs, which is why you're hearing some analysts suggest maybe they should give Tank Bigsby more run, just to see if some fresh legs can provide a spark.

Meanwhile, in Dath it's a completely different story, well kind of.

You've got CD Lamb taking ownership of his drops.

Yeah.

I loved his quote.

He said, I need to catch the effing ball.

He's being solution oriented, which is what you want to see.

But his struggles are happening at the exact moment.

George Pickens is turning into an absolute superstar.

He's been phenomenal.

He's second in the NFL in receiving yards with over one thousand eight touchdowns.

He is absolutely overshadowing Lamb right.

Now, which creates a really tricky contract situation for the Cowboys, doesn't it.

It's a massive strategic puzzle for them.

They want us extend him, but they also have to pay Dak, Micah Parsons and Lamb.

There's only so much money to go around.

So this is where the franchise take comes in.

This is exactly why the franchise tag exists.

In twenty twenty six, they can tag him for one year, probably for around twenty eight million.

Dollars, and that buys them time.

It buys them time and flexibility.

They get to keep their star receiver for a year while they sort out the other massive contracts.

Pickens Camp wants a huge deal now, but the Cowboys might want to see one more year of this production and frankly, this maturity before they commit that kind of long term cash.

Okay, let's shift gears to a rookie QB who is just a lightning rod for conversation right now, Sheddar Sanders in Cleveland.

Yeah, he wins his first start.

First Brown's QB to do that in three decades.

He's now the starter moving forward, even with Dylan Gabriel clearing protocol.

But the football story is almost secondary to the cultural story around him.

He's trying to downplay it, saying he's just trying to do his job, but others are not not at all.

You have guys like Sean Merriman defending his confidence, saying that little bit of cockiness is exactly what a locker room needs.

It gives them an edge, a belief they can win.

And then the conversation goes to a whole other level.

And we have to be clear here, we're just reporting what's being said by prominent.

Analysts right Impartially, you have someone like a Manuel auto Claim in the NFL colluded to push Sanders out of the first round.

He's even called him the public sports face of oppression.

Which is an incredibly heavy label.

It's immense.

Acho's argument is that the media and scouts scrutinize Sanders' confidence, his jewelry, his flash in a way they would never scrutinize a white quarterback.

He believes it's a clear example of systemic bias in the evaluation process and.

The you f Kendrick Perkins comparing him to Barack Obama.

Calling him the most powerful black man in sports.

It's a massive amount of pressure and expectation to put on a rookie.

After one single start, he has become this symbol, and now he has to go out and prove on the field that he can sustain this level of play week after week.

From a rookie on the rise to coaches who might be on their way out.

The hot seats are scorching right now.

And nowhere more than in Las Vegas.

The Raiders are in a free fall.

Pete Carroll is facing real one and done.

Talk, firing three assistants in three weeks, including Chip Kelly.

That feels like a desperate move.

It is a desperate move.

And what makes it more interesting is the Tom Brady angle.

Reports are saying Brady was a huge advocate for bringing Kelly in and now he's deeply disappointed with the whole team's performance, not just the offense.

Having your new minority owner who happens to be the g O disappointed in you.

That can't be a good feeling for Carol.

No, it is not.

The pressure is on.

He has to show some sign of life in these final six games or that one and done buzz could become a reality.

Who else is feeling the heat?

ESPN is keeping a close eye on Cincinnati and Atlanta.

Zach Taylor in Cincinni, Yeah, Burrow got hurt, but they're about to miss the playoffs for a third straight year after making back to back AFC title games.

That's a big step backward.

And Mike McDaniel in Miami.

He's an interesting case.

The team started one in six, they've won three of their last four.

The owner seems to believe in him.

He's got a soft schedule coming up, so he has a real chance to coach his way off the hot seat and quickly.

A roster note out of Washington, it sounds like they're preparing to move on from a legend.

Yeah, Bobby Wagner.

He's thirty five, and while he's been a great leader, his age is starting to show, especially in pass coverage.

They're expected to reduce his snaps after the bye week and get some of their younger linebackers like Jordan McGee more playing time to build for the future.

A tough but necessary move.

All right, let's hit the transaction wire.

The Buffalo Bills made a big shake up this week, a huge one.

They're clearly all in on this season.

They cut receiver Elijah Moore, an acquisition that just did not work out at all.

Nine catches in nine games.

Yet that's not getting.

It done, not even close.

So to fill that void, they went out and signed a proven veteran, Brandon Cooks.

He asked for his release from the Saints and got it.

Yep, And even at thirty two, Cooks is a massive upgrade.

He's a reliable route runner with six one thousand yard seasons under his belt.

He gives them a legitimate deep threat on the perimeter that they have been desperately missing.

So he joins a room with Khalil Shakir kean Coleman and Curtis Samuel.

That looks a lot better on paper.

A lot better.

If he can build a quick rapport with his quarterback, he could really change the ceiling of that entire offense for the December push.

Now over to New England, where they are facing a crisis on the offensive.

Line, a major crisis.

They're rookie left tackle Will Campbell is on injured reserve.

He's out for at least four games.

Losing your blindside protector is just a nightmare scenario, and it sounds like Mike Frable doesn't have an easy answer.

He was very noncommittal.

The options are of Vederian Lowe's who was inconsistent last year, or a rookie Marcus Bryant who has mostly played right tackle.

Neither is a great solution.

And yet despite all that chaos, the Patriots are still a seven point five point favorite over the Giants this week.

It's incredible, isn't it.

It just tells you everything you need to know about the current state of the New York Giants.

Vegas thinks their problems are way way worse than the Patriots offensive line disaster.

A few other quick injury updates, Drake London is doubtful for the Falcons.

Yeah, and that's a big deal.

When he's out, Kirk Cousins has to spread the ball around to like seven different guys and none of them are a trunumber one.

It really limits their passing game.

The Chiefs will be shorthanded on Thanksgiving two.

Right guard Smith is out.

Yep, that's a loss on the interior that could make it harder for them to establish that run game.

We talked about good news for the Broncos though they locked up defensive tackle Malcolm Roach with a three year extension.

Smart move building from the inside out on defense.

And finally, down in the AFC South, the league might be figuring out the Colts.

It sure seems like it.

Daniel Jones is facing a lot of skepticism after two straight losses, and the formula seems to be simple.

Stop Jonathan Taylor.

The Steelers and Chiefs both held him under sixty yards.

And when you do that, it puts the whole game on Daniel Jones's arm, forces them into obvious passing situations and that's just not where they want to be.

The shine is definitely wearing off in Indy.

All right, let's pivot to the college game.

It is rivalry week and it does not get bigger than what's happening in ann Arbor on Saturday.

The game number one Ohio State at number eighteen Michigan.

The stakes are just off the charts.

This is basically a playoff elimination game in Michigan.

Despite winning the last four in this rivalry, they're huge underdog.

A nine point five point underdog at home.

Their whole identity is running the football.

Marshall and Haines have been a two headed monster all year.

But their identity is in trouble.

It is justice Haynes is doubtful for the game, and if their running game is neutralized, they are in deep, deep trouble.

They are not built to play from behind and win a shootout, and.

Ohio State is the worst possible matchup for them if they can't run.

The absolute worst.

Michigan's secondary is the weakest part of their defense, and Ohio State has a fleet of five star receivers like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who are both expected back from injury.

They can exploit that matchup all day long.

And the Ohio State defense is just suffocating.

It's statistically dominant.

They've only allowed nineteen opponent trips to the red zone all year and only seven touchdowns.

Seven touchdowns in twelve games inside the twenty.

That's unbelievable.

It's game changing.

It means even if Michigan moves the ball, they're settling for field goals, and you can't beat this Ohio State team trading field goals for touchdowns.

Use they're a lead against the run, so they're built to stop the one thing Michigan wants to do.

Everything on paper points to an Ohio State win, and probably a comfortable one.

They're just built to bury teams like this.

Not there, there's that historical trend that gives you pause.

There is.

Michigan has covered the spread in four straight games against Ohio State, and all four were outright wins.

That's the longest streak in this rivalry since the FBSFCS split back in nineteen seventy eight.

So for nearly fifty years, no Michigan team has defied expectations against Ohio State like this current group.

Hass it's a genuine historical phenomenon.

Now, Ohio State is eight and one against ranked teams since last year, so they know how to handle the big stage.

But that trend it makes this game fascinating.

While that rivalry plays out, the coaching carousel is spitting like crazy, it is.

And we have our first big move.

Jim Mora is leaving Yukon for Colorado State.

That's a great hire for Colorado State.

He completely resurrected that Yukon program.

He did.

It's video game numbers and Bo Brungard at Youngstown State with twenty four rushing touchdowns.

It's just great to see these guys get the national recognition they deserve.

Absolutely.

Okay, let's bring it home with some fantasy football advice.

It is crunch time, Week thirteen.

Every decision matters.

It really does.

Let's start at quarterback.

Jalen Hurts, despite all the Eagles issues, is still the consensus QB one this week against a soft Bears defense.

Patrick Mahomes' is QB two, and Joe Burrow in his return is ranked eleventh, So a cautious top twelve play.

Right.

The analysts are baking in a little risk with that turk toe, and for the Thanksgiving games, the qbs are not ranked highly.

Goff is fourteenth, Jordan Love is down at twentieth.

That Packers Lions game is expected to be a slugfest.

At running back, Jamir Gibbs is now an elite must start.

Oh yeah, he's ranked RB three overall.

He has fully taken over that backfield and is getting massive volume as both a runner and a receiver.

The trickiest situation is the Chiefs backfield.

It's very tricky.

Kareem Hunt got thirty touches last week, but Isaiah Pacheco is expected back for Thanksgiving.

Pacheco is ranked RB thirty five, which tells you there's a ton of uncertainty.

If Pacheco's fully healthy, he could be a league winner down the stretch, right We saw what he did in the playoffs last year.

Absolutely he thrives on volume, but we just don't know if he'll get a full workload right away, So starting him this week is a risky proposition.

Whereas Hunt feels like a safer floor.

Play and Saquon Barkley is still ranked as RB ten, but that's almost purely based on volume.

It is.

You're not counting on those home run plays anymore.

You're just hoping he falls into the end zone.

Any waiver wire guys, we should be looking at I like.

Chimeer Dike, the wide receiver for the Titans.

When he gets targets, he produces.

He's had a couple of good games recently, and he's also a great returner, which just speaks to his overall athleticism.

A good stash for a deep league.

Okay, let's wrap with this.

Who are the most important players for the real life and fantasy playoffs stretch?

Dan Graziano from ESPN says it's Jalen Hurts.

He's the only one who can quiet all the noise about the Eagles offense being a mess.

If he gets back to his MVP form, he can carry fantasy teams and the actual Eagles.

I'll go with Patrick Mahomes.

It's all about those one score games.

If he rediscovers that clutch magic from last season, the Chiefs become terrifying again and he becomes the fantasy QB one we all drafted him to be.

And my final one is Lamar Jackson.

He is the key to unlocking that Raven's offense.

The big question is can his body hold up.

If his legs are healthy and he starts running like the old Lamar Baltimore becomes a true Super Bowl contender, and he becomes a Top five Fantasy QB again.

Three massive stars with the weight of their teams on their shoulders for this final push.

It's the theme every single year at this time, isn't it.

The pressure just ramps up and you find out who these guys really are.

And what a week we have ahead of us, from the Thanksgiving games to the biggest college rival game in years exactly.

And I want to leave you with a final thought to chew on.

We talked a lot about Shitter Sanders and this idea of confidence.

Well, I want you to think about that razor thin line between confidence and questionable decision making.

We've seen that second part from guys like Rock Purdy, JJ McCarthy, even Daniel Jones in key moments this year.

December is where the pressure exposes you.

So my question for you is what will these next six weeks tell us about the long term future of those quarterbacks?

Will they prove they have the clutch gene when the games matter most?

A great question to think about this weekend.

Thank you for joining us for another essential Football Army breakdown.

We'll catch you next time.