Welcome to episode five ten of five and Dive.

It is Wednesday, November nineteenth.

I am your host, Krant Winstein, joined as usual by Patrick Dubuke and Jeffrey pattern Nostro.

We were just animatedly talking about the content of the show prior to the show starting.

But before we can get into that, do we have any banter?

We have a correction.

I know Patrick's very excited about errata, so here.

Oh yes, Well, so now that it doesn't give me a win?

Oh, I thought you were, I'll get there.

But I I erroneously, in the half hour throwing the game together for the last episode, missed that Ken Hrbeck is in fact in the inaugural class of the Twins Hall of Fame, as he should be.

Yes, so both of you get another point.

It's still a time, I thought, Patrick, Yeah, I just.

Want to assumed this gave Patrick a win.

Yeah, And I assumed because somebody else assumed.

Well, and that's that's the only.

Reason I bring it up, is because I was going to win.

I assume.

Oh, I assumed Patrick didn't as an editor, but.

I actually thought that.

I thought he was happy.

You got something wrong.

Basically, I'm not that good an editor.

Actually that's wrong about anything.

I mean, I'm mad about this because like he was one of my favorite players as a kid, and I just what happened is I probably just like glossed over the inaugural class and then just kept going down we saw.

And also don't mean anything.

Yeah, there a nice reason to have somebody come to the park and.

Has a stand named after him, Like it's not just like the Hall of Fame.

Yeah, what what I was going to say was that it's a reasonable assumption to assume I got that wrong.

It's a it's an absolutely fair default.

So I'm not trying to trying to dunk on people, but I did.

I went back and listened.

I said, like, very very little, Well, because you was you said he was, And I was like, wait a minute, I think I got that one right.

Uh So, anyway, is that all the banter we have for today?

That's all I have?

Patrick, No, I don't know.

I had a pipe burst in my basement.

That's oh yeah, that's it takes to your own house.

That happened, and now it's just kind of like the emotional recovery from that happening for a couple of weeks.

Well, I'm sorry to hear about that.

We will uh, we will move on.

We will get into the show by discussing another favorite topic of yours, Patrick, the Seattle Mariners for want of a Nailer.

We have our first big question mark.

It's big.

It's big.

The agent signing.

He was fifteenth in our free agent fifty.

Josh Nailer's among first baseman last year.

Josh Naylor returns to Seattle on a five year, ninety two and a half million dollar contract.

As far as I know, it doesn't have what I anticipated to include a weird opt in opt out structure that has become a hallmark of the Poto era, and I thought I thought that was honestly the hold up on.

We got the years first before the terms, and I thought that might be because the terms were complicated.

The terms are not complicated.

How people feel about this deal might be a little complicated.

Doesn't seem that complicated.

Okay, go ahead, Jack, I mean it's there's a diverse number opinions.

I don't think they're complicated ones.

I'm assuming you wrote this this second bullet in.

I don't remember.

People are not being normal about this.

I don't know that the Seattle Mariners are being normal about.

This, sure, and Mariners fans are never normal in general.

But I look, I understand he was very good down the stretch for them in the run to the division, and he didn't play well at the beginning of the playoffs, but he was fine after that.

And they need a first baseman.

They needed a first baseman since Patrick helped me out here.

Yeah, sure, Russell Branyan will go with that.

I don't know, I prob when they're bring Naylor back, the like weird victory lapping of it across Mariners fans.

The Mariner's front office, seemingly sabermetric savvy people blue check engagement accounts is like, it's still Josh Naylor, Like he was freely available in trade last offseason and he had a better than average season for him was I think.

Like to underscore that point, Jeff and inter Jackson, I apologize, but he was traded straight up for slaves to Cony.

Yes, if he was, And I don't think his value has changed.

He had a better season, and I don't think his value has changed that much.

He's like a twenty ish percent better than league average first baseman that you should probably did against tough lefties, Like you can find that guy.

So here's what's he had a better season.

Had a better season, and he's twenty eight.

But by DRC plus he had a worse season.

Sure, and like he's to like what he like like this stuff doesn't.

You cannot compare twenty eight this last season he sure?

You can also can't compare Josh Naylor to every other twenty eight year old free agent, Like you kind of have to look at Josh Bnayler for what he is, Like, I don't think he's getting better.

There are his career.

Well, so I think a lot of people think there's something to unlock, right.

I mean, I'm not saying that's fair.

First round pick.

I saw him Inde like Lakewood the year after, Like there.

Is there's He's clearly got power, right, he has power, he doesn't use it the way he probably should.

He makes a ton of contact, right, so I think there's I think I don't even know that people are consciously saying he should he should trade contact for power, But I think they assume that there's a different blend of or that there's a different output for the particular blend of skills he have.

Sure, there's nothing in his profile to indicate that, right, Like in terms of the outcomes, it's it's really it is both inconsistent and consistent in specific ways.

Right, It's inconsistent overall, but like there are there are some very strong consistencies in that he's just not gonna he's he had thirty one homers in twenty twenty four, but like otherwise he's never top twenty.

I mean, you're paying this is just straight up, like Saber one point oho, you're paying for a platform year in a way, because there's no way he gets five to ninety two before last season.

I think it's I don't.

It's also again DRC plus is gonna look at different stuff than than you know, our world or ops or whatever.

But this was not even a platform year for him in that respect.

And and teams and what's different.

You're right that it's like Saber one point oh in that in that respect, but like what teams have gotten very good at generally speaking, is not paying for past performance but for what is coming.

Sure, And like, look, does it really matter that he got five and ninety two instead of three and sixty If he'd gotten three and sixty you'd be like, yeah, sure, whatever, it doesn't but Seattle's Seattle's locking this in and like they don't have a second basement, they don't have a third base, and they don't have a right fielder.

They don't have a fifth starter.

They said they're not going to spend any more money.

They just gave Josh Naylor a huge race with Kirbby and Gilbert Drew.

Well they're not.

They're not spending more money, but there is more money.

They're not spending more money than last year.

Right, Well, they just spent more money.

They have some money to do more with.

They we talked.

About that for a second base on the third basement of right field, right at fifth starter.

Correct, it impacts their ability to meaningfully.

None of this ever happens in a vacuum.

Even if he plays exactly, does this gibe puts up nine point seven wins over these five years, right, or whatever it has to be to make the dollars per war come out.

Patrick, you've been quiet in part because you've been sneezing.

So the thing about this deal to me is that the Mariners are specifically doing it because of past events.

Yes, right, they're doing it because they're trying to capture the excitement because the mayors don't operate the way everyone else does.

They are a brand first, and so they are specifically doing this to being like, hey, you like this thing, right, this thing that you enjoyed, the vibe.

It's very vibe based.

Like I think they're not saying, isn't a good player.

They're not gonna they're not gonna spend this money on someone who can't play, but like you know, this was a factor that they were able to reward a player and look good and feel good for doing so that's fine.

The other and again to just point, I think that's fine, but why five years?

Yeah, well because that's what it took in their opinion.

With somebody else giving him this contract, the a steel the first.

Stel of the off season.

You'll never find out.

Right, Yeah, it's happened with last year, Yes.

Exactly, it's the first deal.

Is always going to be an overpay because nobody knows who the market is, right, and nobody knows what the market is.

The players didn't when the market is.

But also like you haven't given anybody, you haven't taken the time to find out, right, But.

This also happened before all the.

Always I don't know that it's always going to be an overpay.

I I mean, like the market was, it wasn't what I went and expecting last year.

I talked about the Matt Boyd deal and stuff like that.

Right like it it was relatively hot last year and and maybe it will be this year.

But to me, this isn't about the average annual value.

It's about the years in combination with that, right, Like I think to go five years on a twenty nine year old nailer, I would be looking at it.

I would I would be trying to to lower that AAV pretty considerably because to your point, like, yes, it absolutely impacts this year too, but like the out years on this deal are eighteen million for his thirty three to thirty four seasons could be pretty onerous.

Especially if when you have to what you should, they will or not extend.

Kirby and Gilbert right well.

And this gets too but again brought me up to this when I Patrick brought this up to me when I wrote the TA, which is it's it's not this is fine if you're also going to do more right, it's fine.

It's fine to do if you are going to keep going, you can overpay for the two to three win first spaceman, if you're also going to.

Be spending more money per win where they are on the wind curve right now too in that division.

Right, And it's again, it's fine to lock in that those two to three wins if you're just going to keep going.

It doesn't you know, if this isn't going to stop you from doing anything else, God bless right.

I think that is part of the reason for the fan reaction because they saw a big deal and they're like, oh, this is fun.

There's gonna be more big deal.

But I mean, like they said, they're going to spend more money.

Like penciling in maybe more than penciling in Cole Emerson and uh Cole Young for second and third.

Well, they got going to spend money on second and third, they spend it on Naylor and man that.

The rest of the lineup is that that's a lot to put on those guys, right.

Like, like Young was not good, and he was not good in the ways that you would expect if it wasn't going to be great for Cole Young.

Well, and I saw someone sketch out a lineup assuming they bring back Jorge Polanco, which maybe they do.

Sure Jorge Polanka was the clean up hitter.

Yes, if they bring in Horn Polanco, that's it.

That's they have So basically before the before, as soon as the season it said, they said we're gonna keep payroll where it was, and then we could do the math.

We can look at the r braces and we say, Okay, they've got forty million to work with.

They have spent twenty of it.

Uh, they have four positions left to fill and they have twenty million dollars, which means they have five million dollars each.

And that's a bad number.

For they are they are not They are not going to address second answer right.

One of at least one of those is going to Cole Young or Colt Emerson.

And I have to tell you, like I know, JP Crawford had kind of an aberrantly good year hitting at least most of the year.

I don't know if the shortstop numbers on him are really getting ugly.

No, he's he should probably move over and Colt should play shortstop, like that would be the optimal, the optimized lineup.

I don't think you know, you can you can speak to the chef.

I'm not if Emerson's gonna be ready on.

Yeah, I like Colt Emerson.

I do not think you should be their opening day No anything really, I mean, look like stuff happens, or like maybe he comes in his springing looks great, right and he has some There's a lot upper miners time at this point, so it's not like impossible.

It's less weird than you know, the Pirates thing like Connor Griffin might be their opening day short stop, but it's not.

It really should not be the plan a for a team that is, you know, got to the Championship Series, is we're going to get back there, right, like this is one from the World Series you want to raise.

Yeah, the big.

Story here is that they decided to say that payroll was the same with last year, which should not do.

Like and look, they can change their mind on that.

I don't think they are going to.

No, they said that because they don't want to.

Right, they have never they have never changed their mind on it before and I don't know why they would do it now.

Yeah, that should not be acceptable.

It's the Seattle Mariners.

One game in the World Series should not be a fifteenth rank to payroll team.

It's ridiculous.

I do just want it to go to and like this is obviously the three of us are on the same page and trends negative.

In terms of what this means in the broader picture, I think there are some positives in that.

I do think his profile makes a lot of sense in this park.

Look, I just why they want him was not strictly the performance in the second half of last year, or you know, post trade deadline performance, which was fantastic again.

And he's not someone who relies on pull side power so much that you know, it's not necessarily the Tioscar Hernandez acquisition where you're like, Okay, I see what they're doing, but that's a really bad fit.

He works the the you know, he works at Alley's.

He's not reliant on hitting the ball over the fence all the time for production this kind of stuff.

There's also and I don't want to lean too heavily on this, but it is part of I absolutely believe it's part of the part of the equation.

He has an edge to him in terms of the ask still about the sharp edges, but he does like he had.

There's a personality fit that again, I think was good for the team, and I think can absolutely be worth wanting to reacquire or you know, to retain that that all makes sense to me.

I just I guess I just wanted to say that in the sense that all of this criticism or reaction that I have anyway is that notwithstanding, right, Like I I agree with all of that.

Right, I don't think he's a bad player.

I don't think you know, I I there are a lot of reasons it makes sense to be interested in retaining Josh Naylor's services.

Everything I'm saying is accepting that here's what, here's what we.

Think, and like, look, the smart team like teams don't really want you looking at dollars for it.

You don't really want to pay ten million dollars for a one win player.

You don't only want to pay twenty million dollars for two win player, because then you're stuck with that guy.

It's part of especially over part of a larger right, especially over a longer period of time too.

And I don't think there's a ton of upside, right, That's the other thing.

I think you're paying for like a fifty five regular, which again, fine, they need more of them, and they're going to continue on past this again.

Fine, but like you like, the Mariners, partially by their own design, need to be more creative and clever than this.

They need to pay less years and they need to pay less turn for Ryan O'Hearn, who's probably about as good a player the next two years, even though he's older.

So that's that's the interesting part of this to me is they the Mariners specifically, have struggled to find this guy.

I wrote about this in the Taally, you should be able to turn up something in the vein of a couple win first basement.

That's what Arizona did when they traded for Schioni for Josh Naylor.

Right, either via trade like a trade like that where Slade Chaconi is not now.

Slay Chaconi looked pretty good at the end of the year, but you know he wasn't worth a ton to Arizona, right, He hadn't shown much to that point in Arizona.

Right, he was pitching out of the panelot.

There's also again like Baltimore did this with literally Ryan O'Hearn, right, they picked him up from Kansas City and and they you're supposed to be able to churn out these guys, either in your system or with dev fixes or however it is.

You're supposed to be able to cobble together a couple wins.

Now, there's risk in that, right, Sometimes you cycle through guys, right, and he.

Didn't hit and then he hit for the Red Sox.

But that's no, that's exactly right.

But Seattle specifically has not been able to do that.

Maybe they've been trying to do that, they've failed for an extended period of time.

There is risk, but there's also an exit door.

There's no exit door for Josh Naylor if he goes that's right, yeah, because they're just going to keep playing him as a one win player.

And I understand, you know, I think it can be there can be some trepidation in if you're a Seattle fan and you're hearing us say why not try Ryan O'Hearn, because like they just tried Mitch Garver didn't go well forward right, right, But I'm saying, I'm saying, I understand the ta.

We have this, we have this in our hand.

Let's not let's not fuck around, right, Like we finally found someone who fits and is is not the risk in that way.

Now, that doesn't mean they're not a risk.

It's two months, you're like, you're it may have been the best two months of his career.

It probably was about two months of his career or has been the best two months.

I can look at the splits, but like to Patrick's point, they are paying for past performance.

It's not even past some of its past performance.

Some of them is just familiarity, right, Like it's there's there's a comfort level here that you don't have with Ryan O'Hearn.

And that's for the family.

This should not enter the front office is thinking.

But I understand why the fan base like they know or they have seen what Josh Naylor can do for them, they have not seen what Ryan O'Hearn or Gavin Sheets or.

Well, and it might not.

Yeah, Gavin Sheets is another really good example, right like San Diego turned out.

I don't I don't know.

I am not looking at his player page.

It's probably twoish wins, right like something in that van out of Wait.

I mean, just pick up whoever the White Sox cut is what I'm saying.

Right, do this with Hoskins And when Hoskins went bad, it was Bowers.

Well, they paid for Vondins.

They didn't they didn't pay that much.

They didn't pay five and nine two, No for.

Two years, but they they it was what's sixteen seventeen million?

Yeah, like two and thirty four, Like that's fine.

Yeah, right, I like, but but the argument would be, like Hoskins didn't really go.

Well for moment and he was fine the first year.

He was the fine to the point that he opted into the second year.

For sure, but like again one and a half two in season, like Naylor puts those up.

But that's but your point is that it's a it's a short term commitment, right right, Like it is not I if Nailor goes Hoskins mode in terms of either missing time or underperformance or whatever, you're stuck with the rest of the deal.

And it's not something that's ending in eighteen you know, in eighteen months.

And that is there's also a scenario here where it's not even you know, as bad as Hoskins was, but you put yourself in a spot where like, like you have this one and a half win player that is going to play.

It's not bad enough to not play every day, and then you have to build it and they don't have the start, Like, it's very difficult to build around that given the other limitations the Mariners have.

This is something Jared said online, which is people assume that teams are able to move on from sunt costs in a way that they tend not to right, And I think that's especially true for something in this range.

Right, you can it's easier to move on from a sunt costs than a two year deal than it is a five year deal for these teams.

And look like the Mets played Starling Marte to the bitter end, and that wasn't even you know, Marte was a better player when he signed.

He had a better first year, and like he wasn't even awful with the bat the last years, Like he was an average ish He's just physical, you know.

But like and they just kept playing like that's gonna happen with Hoskins.

And again, this doesn't happen in a vacuum these out years.

Is Yeah, like.

Patrick I talked about the ar raises, it's not just that it's ar raised, it's like you've now created like a two year window with your top two pitcher.

I don't really think about Brian Wi relative to Gilbert and Kirby at this point.

But like, look, I'll say this, so this goes up on Friday.

This is the most overrated farm system in baseball.

It's not bad, but it constantly gets rated like there's no stars here, like Cole Emerson's gonna rank very how long is the star?

Like I don't they'll create, they'll produce.

I think some decent regulars out of it.

I like Ryan Sloan a lot.

Maybe he slots into that fifth starter role, like he's better than that, but another like a significant starting patrol three years from now.

It drops off really quickly after the top ten.

The top ten includes like Johnny Fromelo who was hurt most of the season, and Easton Carmichael, who's a college catcher.

Like they need to be more aggressive because like it's very very easy for them to slip back to like eighty seven wins, and that might be an offen the ls.

But the thing that I really had trouble reconciling is this this profile for Nailer just in terms of and this is not specific to Nailer, but but first baseman, free agent first baseman.

I mean we went around this with Pete Alonzo last year.

Yeah, and I kept saying, I got sign, Yeah, yeah, I'd sign him, I'd sign I'd give him five years and nine figures.

I know it obviously depends what the figure is, right, but I was one hundred million, you know whatever.

I'd give him a five year deal and he went and performance and good for the Mets.

They got a year of great performance out of it, and they don't have the attachment, you know, the long term attachment.

Fine, but the market doesn't treat first baseman very well, right generally speaking, if you want to people.

I had this conversation with some other people and they said, oh, you know, I said, when was the last time a first baseman got, you know, really paid on the market.

Oh, Vlad Lad wasn't on the market, right, right, Like, yeah, teams will give extensions out.

I mean, there's a reason there's a reason that Boris keeps using to share and Prince fielder ops for Alonso because somebody like pretty Freeman got like sixty percent more than this.

Like Freddie Freeman is like the last.

Big he was.

He was he got a pre ARB extension.

He was older, but like he's a Hall of Fame level player, right, he.

Was thirty two and that's fine.

But yeah, Chris Bryant, if you want to say that, but he could play outfield right, Like that was a different situation.

Uh, if you go down the list.

Bryce Harper also was an outfielders, was a catcher who they converted to first base.

First baseman don't get five year deals and it so okay.

So that's one part of it, right, is that the market just doesn't generally bear this for for this type of guy.

And and Naylor is not the player that these guys I'm describing what anyway.

The second is the Mariners don't do this.

So the thing I'm really having trouble reconciling is the Mariners did this for a for like all of this for Josh Naylor.

And I'm not trying to be mean to Josh Naylor, but you broke two conventions in doing this, and you did it for Josh Snaylor.

At the end of the day, they weren't going to pay Pee Alonzo what he wants.

Right, Okay, But to that point, then like, go do something else with the money and and try and skimp with Ryan O'Hearn.

I know no Mariners fan wants to hear that.

I don't understand, which is why they did.

Yeah, that they know what they want.

But here's here's my thing for the Mariners fans.

You should be asking for more.

You should not be satisfied with this right and I know like.

They haven't this.

If they keep going, they won't.

I understand they won't.

But if they kept going, I I retract every I don't care, that's fine, then then none of this matters.

If they go sign Bobachetty.

Actually absolutely go sign Bo again, definitely, like he'll have fifty doubles in that park.

They absolutely should sign Bob.

If they go sign bobet consider you know, I'll take it back.

I'll eat the crow.

But they've they've given us no, they won't.

Yeah, I said, I know they won't.

I'm just saying I'm I'm willing that.

That's what.

There are conditions under which this makes a ton of sense.

Sure, but it's okay to take them at their word.

They're usually very honest, specifically about this one thing.

I assume we are not done.

Yeah, we're done.

Let's let's go.

Let's get weirder another move.

I'm having trouble reconciling.

This broke around ten thirty eight last night, our second segment, confused by this trade for the Orioles.

Who they'd give who do they give up?

And who'd they get the Orioles?

And this is not a joke.

I thought it was a joke.

I thought it was I thought it was like a trade values proposal.

You know.

When I thought, I was immediately like, no, I believe this, No I did.

I I was like, if this makes you, I understand your reaction, Craig, and I said, it's.

A trap with it.

It was.

It was a trap.

But yeah, it was a trap.

There's a trap version of the game.

It's like a trap question for you in a game.

Yeah.

Yeah, the Orioles traded Grayson Rodriguez for Tailor Ward.

Yeah, like you say that, you read those words and you get like one for one.

Yeah, the trade is one for one epithetic.

Uh.

You read that and like it's like one of those sentences where people joked like each word may like confuse me more than the last.

Then you get to the end of it and you're like, oh yeah, yeah, okay, yeah, okay, well yeah I get it.

Fine, Okay, No, no, I didn't know you didn't.

I'm still not at that point I saw.

I saw this first via Sam sam Dykestra.

Yeah, m I l b on on Blue Sky and I said, huh, like my brain just literally didn't like usually.

So then I pull up I still have I have a lock to count on Twitter, I obviously used, but I looked it up to see I was passing reporting, where is this coming from?

Whatever.

The next thing I saw was Underdog had posted it, and I said, this doesn't clarify anything for me.

I do not know if this is real, Like, what is this just a discussion?

Is it a float?

Whatever?

And then I saw the Angels social media account verify actually them.

I checked and made sure it was actually them post it, and I my brain I blue screened of death like I just stalled out.

The fan kicked on, stopped responding.

Correct, What the fuck is this?

I mean, this is one of those where if I try to explain it to you the listener, I'm gonna get mad.

No, I'm gonna sound like a crazy person.

But also like it makes perfect.

Sense, it does not.

Well, there are I think there are.

My prediction on this is there are a lot of smart people who are going to twist themselves.

Toready happening to explain this, And I understand people seek to explain and that's and that's fine.

People want to try and understand what's happening here.

And I'm not judging that part of it, but I think there are people who are going to talk themselves into some version of this that doesn't end up at This is fucking crazy, and it is fucking crazy.

Guys.

I don't care.

If I don't care.

I don't care if Taylor Ward is great in Baltimore and Grayson Rodriguez stinks it up in Los Angeles or Anaheim, whatever, I don't care.

This is fucking crazy.

Go ahead.

So one of the favorite things I ever wrote was a joke article when I wrote for Local Landing.

And what I did is I asked the readership to submit We were doing our off season plan, and I asked all the readers to submit their suggestions so that I would go through and take them and make the off season plan.

What I did instead was fire off every single one of them in order to make a giant super team of just like a six hundred million dollar payroll.

Uh, this has the feel of that.

Like this, I thought it was a trade values proposal like, I, you know, right, but like this move.

They reject this, by the way, because Grace and Rodriguez has four years of control and probably yeah projection still.

But you had that vibe, right, But like this deal after like after they laoded to Varius Science.

This feels like two different people, But it feels like a game of diplomacy where everybody filed their moves and then you just fire them off.

It just those two as weird as this deal is that deal.

In this deal, I love that you're still hung up on Leotis.

It makes it.

I don't think it has any well, no, it doesn't have any bearing.

That's the thing.

It cannot make sense with this deal.

I need, Okay, what I want to happen firstus, Jeff, I don't want you to come off as an apologetic for this, an apologist.

I'm not apologies Like, look, I'm not nobody want just a trade that happened.

Explain, explain all right, as best you can.

The Angels absolutely love acquiring some sort of post hype prospect because they have no prospects themselves, sure, and so they take other teams.

A guy that can put right onto the major league.

Replace Kyle Hendrix in the rotation.

I mean he's healthy, which is probably like they cannot in them.

Like in my career as Facebak Perfections lead prospect writer, which spans a decade now, not thrilled about that, I cannot think of a single pitching prospect like the close pitching prospect they've had.

This is I guess sure, maybe I'm forgetting somebody it's been acade.

You're forgetting what their best pitching prospects.

Yeah, that the Angels have had in a decade.

I mean, if we're not counting show Heo TONI.

But like, but they like they get Alex Meyer three years after he's been given up on.

They get Dylan Bundy and I chack out an okay season out of Dylan Bundy.

They like, they just get these guys.

This is that, Like they're looking at four years of control for Grace and Rodriguez.

Uh, you know a guy that's been a promulent major league starter when he's actually been on the mound.

I don't know what his medicals look like.

I'm guessing their bags.

He was just traded for one year of Taylor Ward.

But like, this is this is probably for them the best they would want to do and could do for Taylor Ward because they don't we talked about so they don't trade Taylor Award for maybe like a low miners Baltimore guy.

Haven't That list is late, so I haven't only looked at it.

It's like, here's the thing.

Yeah, if if you want to, if someone wants to argue that they should be trading for a high upside, low miners guy, or you're not getting a high upside, low miners guy for Tailorward, I'm sorry.

You're you're probably not getting one with more upside than Grayson Rodriguez.

Correct, Yeah, I absolutely agree.

I couldn't agree more with that.

But even if you want to argue that's the case, do you think the Angels could identify them right?

Well, here's the thing.

The pros can't do that.

The problem with discussing this trade in any real form, why I said it, is like you like you have to accept the premise that the Angels are a baseball team and a baseball organization that makes baseball moves.

And I'm I'm not sure that I can do that.

So, like, I know why they did it, but it's are they being which side of this the angels.

It's I know why they did it.

It's an obvious win for them.

Yes, it's it's no, it is it is.

So here's the thing.

Everyone I've talked to in the industry thinks like it was great for the oiols.

Excuse me, yeah, because it's the age.

No, no, no, I'm sorry.

Look, Taylor Word is fine.

He's fine.

Right, If they should ever might not throw a pitch again.

I would like I was, I mean, paying fourteen million this year.

So I sincerely would like you to ask the people who have told you it was great what they were what they would have been willing to give up for one year of thirty two year old Taylor Ward, who is getting thirteen to fourteen million next year.

I sincerely want and if any of them, if any of what they say approaches Grayson Rodriguez.

But what is Grece Andriguez?

Well, what Isguguez is a mystery box.

He's the biggest lot of ticket.

Yeah, in the world.

It's like, yeah, no, the the the the odds of him pitching again in any meaningful way may.

Less than fifty sure, yes, correct, I want to be clear that when I'm when I'm saying this is such a great win for the Angels.

I have no.

Idea that it's not going to be for the Angels I get witch right, or.

If any of those pitches, if he does to them, will be any good at all.

Look, I don't, I don't.

I almost don't care.

I don't want to do an appeal to authority, to Michaelias of all people.

But I will say this, Michael Lias is not making this trade if he thinks Grayson Rodriguez is giving them anything.

Sure, but when I don't believe, what I will tell you is the hit.

You know what, let me let me go back to it two years now, two years and and say I don't even know who the GM of of the Red Sox was at the time.

Was a good question, probably heim Blum, if you're saying two years ago.

But no, the Chris Sale trade, Yeah, they traded Chris Sale.

He played his salary.

Yeah, that was right after.

Right president.

They traded Chris Sale and paid his salary for a clearly diminished value.

Von Grigson, the same logic would tell you Chris Sale is irrevocably fucked.

Yeah, and he's been, and he's been incredible.

Teams to have different risk appetites for picture injuries, and those pan out in different ways.

Right, Rodgers kept signing Jimmy Nelson and he never fucking pitched, Right, Like.

Fine, whatever I think he's I understand.

I understand that Grayson Rodriguez might be irrevocably fucked.

I understand that on whatever percentage chance you give that he's not.

And even if he's, if he's a league average pitcher for one year, that's fucking Taylor Ward of value and they have four cracks at it.

That's a great that is a great trade for them to make.

I'm I'm sorry he has a career eighty eight d r A minus.

I'm sorry.

This is not you're talking about.

This is like, this is all past performance.

That was what we're like, Sure, okay.

How many guys miss a year and a half.

At this point, it happens all the goddamn time.

Sure.

Yeah, I'm with Greig on this one.

I think that you get four bites of the apple and he has to be good one.

And even Dylan Bundy showed a back up for one year, right, and that was where he.

Has to be good in one.

Am I confident he'll be good in one I am.

Not if it is matter to the Angels at all.

No, again, that's the problem.

You're evaluating the Angels as a baseball team.

I think we need to stop doing that.

But then none of it matters what I'm saying, I am literally telling you that none of it matters.

But that's that's fine.

Yeah, I don't know what the Orioles are doing.

They not have like four Taylor Wards.

But yeah, that's the part that gets me more than anything else.

The Orioles are supposed to be a real team.

I mean, I guess it's just like an acknowledgment that they don't want to or may not be able to play Tyler O'Neil next year.

So fine, Yeah, if you were going to do this, Yeah, why did you trade a much cheaper, even more productive player last year in Ramon Loriano, who you had under contract for this coming season for six prospects from the worst system in baseball.

Along with Ryan Herd.

By the way, why did you It wasn't the worst system in baseball when they made that trade, but yeah it was pretty guy.

Are these guys changing that dynamic?

You think?

I don't remember who half of them are at this point, right, yeah.

Brandon Butterworth brand, there's a lot of guys Tyson something like.

Tyson Neighbors a little bit, he's a nice player.

Twenty ninth.

It might be twenty ninth with.

Tyson Neighbors and Brandon Butterworth.

Yeah.

Maybe the Angel system isn't good either.

So Padre Padre's list is up today, guys.

Yeah, I mean it's calling it a list is generous, but it is.

It's it's some name.

I I I think I would love to know what these people in the industry would give up for Taylor Award number one.

Again, go go on the market and tell me what these guys are worth.

Because by the same discussion that we're having about Ryan o'harn versus Josh Naylor or whatever, I look, I think Josh Nail is a better bet than Ryan o'haran to perform.

And that's and you can pay for that security and that's fine.

But these are the areas guys that teams intend to be cheap on because you you can dig the guys up.

Left field two ish win players also again thirty two, he's thirty two left fielder, two to three wins, And again we're talking about you're talking about left field Josh Naylor, Like, I don't know what the Orioles just did this with Ramon Loriano, right, he was he was nothing and then they signed him and he had a good year and whatever you can.

You can talk Rob Refsnyder out of retirement for less than this, you can.

I wouldn't do it, but you could sign Tommy fam and get something in the range of this, right, maybe a half win less.

These guys are out there.

Yeah, you could sign Leoti Taveres.

Who's worse.

Oh wait, they did that.

It doesn't make any sense to me.

I'm sorry.

I think the people who are saying this shit are are ass backwards.

I really do.

And I understand.

I've had discussions with people I respect who think, like, you know what, this doesn't make any sense to me, And I think people go out of their way to try and understand stuff that doesn't make any sense.

And I think we just need to call it what it is.

And I understand that this me saying this as hard as I'm saying this is.

It means, you know, Taylor Ward's gonna have a nice year, and Grayson Rodriguez won't throw a pitch and that's fine.

I am.

I have so much conviction in this read, I really do.

I don't know what are the Orioles doing.

They still don't have a real center fielder.

I mean, they might just play Colton cows are in center.

Now fine, I guess so now your outfielder is Tyler O'Neill, Taylor Ward, and Colton Kowser.

Yeah, almost certainly, never all three of those guys at the same time.

But yeah, it's just.

Like ordering ordering three plain yogurts, not vanilla, not vanilla plane.

And then have any pictures.

It's wild.

Look and look he's I.

Mean, they still weren't gonna have any pictures with Grayson Rodriguez.

Probably Grayson's shoulder might be Hamburger meat.

Yeah, but Hamberg Hamburger meets worth a lot right now.

M okay, ground beef is expiced.

Price of beef is going up.

Yeah, price of beef is going up.

They're giving it away.

No, Yeah, I mean, I I agree that the read that I think we do need to give some credence to the fact that like this deal at all means his medicals are probably really really rough.

Yeah, but Jeff, like you and I, you and I for for years.

And I'm not I'm not trying to rag on you first, but we talked about Eric Schoubl's medicals and how badly guys whole ship out of you know, like shit happens.

Sure, and it's not the same people, but the Orioles are famous for their field medicals.

In their yeah yeah, theism regarding arm status.

Who was it?

They?

They?

Oh Hoffman just how flung?

Yeah Offman?

I mean, yeah, how pitched?

But he pitched himself.

He pitched the whole year.

He did wasn't not good, but he pitched year.

He was like the blow ups were really bad.

And but there were stretches of dominance too.

If Grayson Rodrigez pitches a whole year, even if it's mixed.

Tune into the twenty twenty six Angels to find out, don't do that to yourself.

Oh you'll do it well they do you think they like?

This came up in the discord.

Do you think this makes it less likely they trade Joe Adele?

Now?

Is he just stuck there?

Well, so I was I was gonna say, if they had traded Joe Adele for Grayson Rodriguez, what what do you think the reaction.

Would have been, like, ay, that different, really.

Is Joe?

Is Joe Adelle better than tell her bored?

I mean, he hasn't been.

He's significantly younger, and there's an extra year of control, and there's reasons to believe there's more in the Yeah, yes, yeah, sure, I mean you can talk yourself into it.

But you know again, I think for the organ thin.

People would doubt Grayson Rodriguez less if Joe Adele had been the return.

Baby.

But it's still the angels making the trades.

So I'm gonna like, we just.

We know what.

We don't know what the medicals we are, but we know what the modicles are.

I'm sure it's bad.

I mean, I'm not trying to gloss that, yeah, I really I'm not.

I'm not trying to underplay.

Again.

I think they need to get one year right, I don't even know there has to be a full full you know, twenty five.

Good thing is like you can certainly find pictures that missed a year and a half and came back and we're some degree of usable to good.

A lot of pictures of miss year, A lot of pictures of miss year and a half just don't come back.

You don't hear about them memory again because a lot of pictures miss a year and a half.

Absolutely, but no, that's absolutely true.

And again I am not confident.

I think if you get twenty five starts in a season out of Grace and Rodriguez, this is a clear win.

I'm not confident that happens.

I'm not And I don't mean twenty twenty six, I mean any of the four years.

But you get four shots at it, it's a to me, that's a great risk to take.

And and like to the broader project of like will it matter because it's for the Angels, Well no, but like you gotta start somewhere.

I don't know that if they trade it for an upside prospect in low a Ether, because guess what, they're still gonna be the Angels and they're still gonna have won seventy three games by the time that guy gets there.

And hey, look, if you do get a good seat somewhere in there, you can probably flip him for more than Taylor Ward.

Do I trust the Angels to do that either?

No, but.

Well they're worried he'll be better with someone else.

Yes, Yeah, I don't From the from the oriole side.

I truly don't understand what you do with Tailorward.

I mean, like, fine, okay, to what end I mean to be a two and a half one player, which they do need more of.

Yeah, but they're not solving this line.

If you look at the roster resource, Dylan Beaver's is in this lineup is alongside of a platoon.

Jeremiah Jackson is in this lineup is a short side up of a platoon.

It's been good last year.

He was, Oh, you can you can turn up interesting guys.

Fascinating mm hmm.

This is a weird lineup.

Man Holliday, Westburg, Henderson, Ward, Beaver's slash O'Neill, Richman, Kowser, Bosio's.

Might be available.

Posio's slash out Castle.

I guess I don't know how they're gonna then Kobe Mayo.

They're gonna move on from some of these guys, I think in further deals.

But it's a little crowded right now.

Yes, I will say I will say this.

I know I've said a lot.

I my other seemingly hot take.

I got some pushback on this on this is I think it's like a mortal lot that the Orioles signed one of the top pitchers on the market after this.

I think the fromber.

Sees Keen Suarez, am I if you want to put him in there, I maybe.

Sure someone one of those five I think now I think they need two plus of those or or more pitching, right, unless you really really believe in the Trevor Rodgers experience.

I mean they might and look might be they might be right, and.

They might be right well, but I think even then you still want you know, he looked.

Good when he was back, like health not.

I mean, like.

Theoretically Kyle Brad is a good picture.

Theoretically you would think he'd be fine, fine, but like there's usually a bit of a halo coming off Tommy John.

Other stuff can happen.

But how much time did did Kyle Bradish just fix this?

By the way, a year and a half?

I think, oh, interesting, but you believe Okay, not you specific no, But I.

Think he got he got back on the mound already, so I know he can do it fair enough.

I think they've been pretty overt about saying they're gonna do it now.

Michael Lias has said things and not followed followed through by four Yes, get ready for lift off or whatever that was.

This has been more overt about the language around getting the top arm and I just think if they're willing to move on from Grayson, like there's a plan to backfill that.

Sure, we'll see they have to compete, say the teams to do it.

They're not good at They're not good at signing free agents to big money deals in the first place.

But I do think that's that's part of this plan.

Shall we take a break, Yes, and come back with the rest of the show.

Welcome back to episode five hundred and ten of five and dive.

We're on segment three one.

That might be harder to get us exercised about.

Perhaps we had four this is status QO.

Sorry, we had four players except the qualifying offer.

There were thirteen offer We had Brandon Woodruff, Trent, Christian Labor, Torres, and Shota in Minaga accept.

Everyone else declined.

That includes other borderline ish guys.

Zach Gallen.

I don't know who else was Uzachen, Yeah, the.

Border Yeah, I saw who was the other person?

I saw they were surprised, but I guess, you know some I saw somebody surprised that King didn't take it, although I can't imagine why King won.

Yeah, I mean, if King the King can just get that as part of a three year Pillow contract, Yeah.

Exactly right.

I yeah, I did not think what was really.

And I think his market will be pretty robust.

Uh yeah, otherwise it's schreber Belt as far as c Tucker the chet Daz so yeah, I don't think any.

It's funny that Woodruff was the one that everybody was felt most secure about taking it, and I also feel was the one who probably could have gotten away with not taking it, because I think Woodruff is good enough that he could have gotten one of those one to three deals as well.

Yeah.

I mean he's also because of the buyout, he's like thirty two million this year too.

Yeah, and he obviously wanted to be there, And I don't blame him for taking it and just staying with the team he probably wanted to play with anyway.

Yeah.

I just think that, like because he's a pitcher, because I don't think market was quashed by the compensation to your point, Like, I think he could have gotten around that.

I think the thing that really hurt him was just being out at the end of the year.

Sure, missing so much times.

It's just I think that if he could have finished the year, pitched in the playoffs whatever, Yeah, I know that.

I think that's a really big market.

Yeah, maybe not really, But like I don't think he's getting a massive contract, but I think the market for his services would have been robust.

I'm just saying that Choda Monaga would have probably had a better better market if he had gotten hurt LA season than being.

Helpful like it.

I think this is the people have had some takes on this, but I think it's just about like sort of the CBA and people want.

To but I think it's just maybe is this because of I don't I.

Don't think it's that.

I think it's just teams have gotten a little to lose on offering these because well, I.

Don't know, it's this might be the right.

I think they were a little too tight.

They were tight before.

This seems right Trent Grisham's contract.

Grisha I don't know what I didn't understand.

I think if you're look, they're all playing a gate right Labor Torres.

I think if you're Scott Harris, first of all, not the end of the world to get another one year deal out of labor Torres when it's his age twenty nine season, I think, and and you might be playing the game.

And if you're if you're in the Detroit front office, this is this is a little bit of poker, right, it's a partial information game.

And and I think you have to you're comfortable with the outcome if if they accept.

And the game you're playing specifically with with Torres is he just took a one year deal.

There's a lot of motivation not not to do that again, especially since the next time if he does it, the next time he enters free agency, is his age is going to start with a three.

That's right, his.

Right, His his position is in question.

The defense could get worse.

It's hard to see him doing like that much better offensively.

You had a nice offensive year.

This is kind of like, look they can but you know McGonagall, I think we'll be up next year.

But he's not really an opening like I think he should have been in the playoffs.

But you can constructor where he's not an opening day guy, right, like he hasn't like you might want to give him a few months in triple A and you're gonna make room for him anyway, Like one way, like they they don't have a short.

Stop than Jason, and again like you're you're kind of probably hoping he declines, right and you get you're also pretty compensation quote unquote, but you're okay with it if he doesn't.

And I think there's a lot in that calculus that says he might not want to.

He might just want to take himself open to the market, over to the market and see if he can get Also.

Even if you don't, you know, you don't really value them, like you would rather have him on like seventeen million than twenty two.

You're baking in the value of that draft pick that you get a percentage of the time anyway, So it's all shoved into a giant calculator when you're making these sensations.

Yeah, I guess I just say I could understand that.

I understand why Milwaukee offered it to Woodruff, right, that that makes sense to me.

I I even understand offering it to Imanaga.

I'd rather, I think I talked about this at the time.

I think i'd rather.

I mean, I was wrong when I thought they wouldn't offer it, but I understand it, right, I thought them declining it said something to them about or just said something about their feelings about him in a way that they wouldn't then go back and offer this.

But I do think they were playing a game.

Yeah, And I saw Matt true.

Blood say this like Jed Hoyer has misread the market has misread a number of things over the years, right, And and I think this is maybe a misread.

But I understand they're playing a game that again, like Monaga might want to take this last best shot at a multi year deal potentially.

Now, I think there are reasons in Monaga wouldn't.

He was actually pretty good before the hamstring injury.

If he comes back and pitches like that for a full season, he's going to do just fine and.

Clear the Q of too.

Yeah.

But also, like from there's no real downs for the Brewers and Cubs here because like they need they need the pictures, they need the picture, right, the Yankees and Grisham, I don't.

That's the one, I truly.

I mean I've seen you know again, I see a lot of Dodgers fans and might be people are saying, oh, maybe him for left.

I'm like, don't.

I wouldn't go near Grisham with and it's not.

That he's bad, sure, but I.

Don't buy that performance really.

The defensive numbers are slipping in a way.

He wasn't great in the second half.

Yeah, yeah, I don't know, it's just yeah, it's not It's something I just I would be avoiding if I could.

I don't think any of these contracts are as as uh I want to say bad, but like the Nick Martinez one from last year.

Still I think Trump's all four of these, sure, and also the Yankees.

The Yankees is just a bad roster fed it.

Is, but like if they want to, if they're okay with spending twenty two million, Trent Grisham is like whatever they should should not matter to them.

Ultimately, it's not a great use of that, you know, those resources, in my opinion, But they can easily sidestep it if they want.

Yeah, all of these teams can afford these deals.

Like it's not yeah, I well, you know the Woodroof one is the the Yeah.

I mean I guess I said this to someone Walket.

I think if I were running the Brewers, I would not have made him the QO, in part because of how the season ended in the injuries, right, I understand.

I don't think it's a I don't.

That doesn't mean it's bad.

It's just not the risk I would have gone for.

And I think it's specifically hard for a team with their budget, right.

Maybe maybe they impose their own budget restraints or whatever, but like the Mariners, they stick to them.

Yeah, and so I think that's a lot of money.

He's tied up in someone who you're not sure is going to get on the field enough.

It's not about his quality.

When he's pitching.

He was good.

I think he will be good if he pitches.

It's just about if you get fifteen starts, If you get twenty starts and you've you've paid twenty two million out of Milwaukee's payroll for him, That's that's tough, right, And it's not that they don't have depth.

They do, but they have that depth without him and could have redeployed that money.

The opportunity cost, to me is more substantial with Milwaukee than anyone else.

I don't think.

Again, I don't think it was a bad offer.

I just would have tried to go elsewhere because I felt fairly confident he would accept it.

You know, I don't know.

Any of these decisions worse than Zach Gallon turning it down.

So split on Gallon, but go ahead better No, I don't know if anyone to say that, I don't understand it.

I I we have Gallon ranked not only below those four players, but significantly below those four players.

I guess what does he have to get for it to be worth turning down one in twenty two?

Right, and like you'd think he would be in the market for a pillow contract anyway.

Right, Well, let's be establish this way.

The Cubs turned down fifty seven him.

You have to clear that if you're Gallon, I think so, like three forty five make you feel good?

That's the other thing.

It depending on who's signing you.

There's a there's an additional hit at fifty million dollars, so you could end up seeing the the Tyler O'Neal thing where it's forty nine and a half.

And look, maybe, like I don't like, there's certainly a scenario where that's better than one in twenty two, because if he goes out and does the same thing again next Jerry, he's not getting two and twenty seven.

Maybe he is actually, but it was one.

Yeah, he could just keep getting like the yeah, the Gibson twelve million things.

For a while you would think that, you know, the agent here did their due diligence and thinks there's a enough of a market.

But again, like, are you really confident there's more market for you than Britain?

Woodruff for showed him an aga.

Yeah, I wouldn't.

I would not be happy if my team signs that Gallen for three years and forty nine.

Well, you know you know who his age is.

To be clear, it's Morris of course.

Yeah.

Well he never takes a qualifyent, right.

I.

I you know the thing about Gallon is what he's thirty or he'll be thirty thirty.

Yeah, it's not that old, but sad injuries.

It's not a stuff for It's not like a pure stuff profile.

So any degradation there is going to be a problem.

I mean I think he'll he'll get signed and I think he'll probably be twenty two million and guaranteed money.

But yeah, yeah, we.

Have anything else on the qualifying offers.

Move on to around the horn.

We had some forty men clean up.

This was all you know, adding guys you want to protect from the rule five getting getting rid of detritus, I suppose is a rude way to put it.

Ah, I don't know non tenders before the non tenders what.

Yes, yes, Jeff, I don't know this.

This just seems mostly in your.

I think it's Jake Fraley literally just went out and gone in like five days ago.

The facility do for this is a good time to do it too.

So yep, well from the rais yeah jj Budet.

I guess like it was like it was good two years yeah, and then wasn't Like I think, I don't know.

I find our industry is like moving away from ideas like object permanence, Like somebody can't just like have a career and it not be sustainable.

Like I think we were.

We might do this with like Kyle Stowers.

Yeah, next well Nolan Jones, there's always a Rocky.

It might be Hunter Goodman this year.

I'm not sure if it's object permanence or just like a growing desire to take credit for every advance.

Yeah, people don't understand that, like sometimes the league figures you out like it takes a little bit of time, but uh.

But somebody wants to somebody was responsible, somebody, somebody helped you become what that career was, and you don't want to like, you don't want to admit that part of it was a fluke.

Right well, I.

Sometimes the league figures you out immediately, like Christopher Morel.

I think it's also with with guys who switched teams specifically, like today, there's also like a stick your thumb in the eye of the team that they got it wrong.

Yeah, and there's a huge like streak in people that want to be like L O L Marlins.

I mean that's definitely happening with like hany other.

Yeah, that's what happening where.

Sorry with tours to the Orioles, right, oh surely, yeah, yeah.

Although Trevor Rodgers was just very good for part of the season.

Also, neither team won those trades and this.

This stuff takes time, don't work itself out.

Uh Frankie Montas, Yeah.

He's playing got a pitch next year.

So the Mets just.

Moving on the spot.

Yeah yeah, I mean the forty minute spot is I you know, I go I go back that deal made I was I didn't get it at the time.

It worked out about as badly as I could.

Have, Yes, certainly worse than I thought yeah, right, like that is not that was not my conception of it not working.

Yeah, Nathaniel Lowe also DFA.

I mean I say, I think nathanielow Is just gonna get dfaid twice a year.

Yeah, Yeah, he's a.

He's at the he might be entering like the Josh Bell zone where he only be good for half a season at a time for somebody.

Yeah, and I got a crown that I thought.

I think I thought he was.

You know, Robert Garcia worked out really well for Texas.

I guess Jake Berger didn't.

So I don't know, but like I thought Nathaniel, Robert Garcia probably went the trade for himself.

But oh yeah, absolutely.

I just I thought low.

Was more years of Jake Berger.

So I guess there's that.

I think I kind of thought of low of as like Josh Nayler ish.

Yeah, like fifteen he was not.

He was not.

That's the downside risk.

Yeah, that's right, that's the downside.

Uh, Jeff, I'm gonna let you talk about the all caps here.

Yeah.

So once again the Dodger who exactly added exactly one left handed pitcher to their forty man roster.

But this year it's uh my friend in Craig's run in combed.

How am I getting rope down into this?

He throws like ninety seven from the left side with a ninety one mile hour slider.

Chad Mariama Scott.

Don't watch him pitch.

Just look at the just look.

At I watch him look at the numbers, but not the walk rate.

Yeah, well yeah that too.

Don't watch him pitch.

It'll just like it'll confuse you.

Like you'll like you'll be wondering if you're watching baseball or like prefer like someone's like Martha Graham performance art.

Yeah, it's like a Martha Graham dance move.

I I quoted Chad's video and I said, if you've been wondering, like, how like why the walk rates are what they are, watch one pitch you'll understand.

Well, I had not seen him pitch up to that point.

I had not done video work on running.

Yeah, what is happening, man?

That's that's uh.

The reason can't hit his stuff when it's near the zone.

Yeah, well it's it's I want to say, like, it's not even as weird as I would say, like Rokie Society, Rookie Sasaki does like a weird little leg kick that's back towards center field.

Like there's nothing even as weird as that.

It's just that he's six seven and he does everything is exaggerated, right right, It's.

Like to draw a baseball pitching motion from memory.

Yes, yes, it's like a massive leg level.

And then the takeaway on his is so long, yep, and so exaggerated.

No wonder he can't find the zone.

He there's no way.

He repeats that no ever, right, like it's not the same every time.

It's it's wild.

Yeah, he can.

He can miss a lot of bad I.

Don't again, he might close out the twenty twenty six World Series, who knows.

I don't know.

This is like when they added Jack Dryer and I was like, Jack Dryer is not They're just gonna dfa him later.

I don't know.

I think they'll probably do him later, but who knows.

He it's like, what's like a So it's a he averages ninety six, touch ninety nine.

He's running a thirty percent rate on the fastball and is seventy four percent in zone contact.

Right, yeah, I mean it's right like he does not know where it's going.

No, like his zone rate on the fastball isn't awful, but he also doesn't get a lot of chase and he gets only an Okay, I'm on a chase on the slider.

The slider runs a forty three percent with rate.

So like, there's stuff to work with there.

Yeah, there's there's absolutely stuff to work but it it's it's like, yeah, there's something there, but also like maybe that should be someone else's project.

Yeah, maybe in a lot of way, you know what I mean, But.

The Dodgers also like those projects.

Oh no, it's it's not even that it's bad for the Dodgers, but like I don't really think it's gonna work ultimately, right, Uh I, I can't go ahead to the next item.

So, like there were I don't really care about the forty man ads in the Rule five draft anymore.

But it was a little weird that the Braves didn't add Blake Burholter.

It's a former second round pick, a you know, a reliever at Auburn, and they got stretched out.

Uh.

I think, yeah, I think you missed some time for Tommy John in there, because they usually do.

Uh.

The thing about it that's weird to me is I think the one question you have to ask yourself when deciding on rule five protects this year is would this person be the Rockies third starter?

And the answer to Blake Burholter is yes, he would, and.

It would go horribly Yeah.

Well probably, but also he like he's pitched in triple A, like he's.

Now to be fair, like you put you put on the Rockies list already published, let's go check it out every mckaid brown.

Yeah, twenty first in the Rockies system and he pitched for the Rockies rotation.

If the Rockies claimed Blake Burholter, he would be in the top ten in this system.

Okay, that's what I was gonna s.

Yeah, that's where you're like, it's an actually interesting The Bravee system is in that DAP either, so it actually like it's a pretty high carry ninety five mile an hour fastball.

He's got like a weird high IVB slider too that misses a lot of bats.

Like, I think you'll probably just go first overall.

He should.

You can just carry him in the bullpen for a year or two with the fastball slider combo.

Very weird to me.

And that's just something that I don't know about his health or something like that.

I don't like the top line stats and upper miners weren't great.

But like, you plug I think Jared said this, you plug him into stuff model.

He's going to come out as one of the He's probably come out of the top picture in this roll five drafts pool.

And he's already pitched in for ble A.

So it's like, oh, it's not like the Braves needed pictures.

No, no, of course not.

So it's fine.

Chris Bubach might be available on.

The market apparently.

I don't know why the Rockies keep trading pictures that have good seas but royal Sorry, yeah, no, one, Rockies don't have any good seasons today like they did, like I know, singers not.

But they don't trade guys.

It's fine.

Traded Brady Singer and a trade Chris Bubach.

Yeah, but you know what, Trading Brady Singer was fine.

It was fine.

Yeah, might be good.

Yeah, no, he might not be healthy, but he might.

Would you trade Chris Bubach for one year of Taylor Ward?

No, crank, Okay, I'm just saying.

I'm just those guys pitched a lot in twenty twenty, like.

Did at the end of year, hurt and I.

Like I don't think it was like serious though, Yeah.

Oh okay, who knows.

Yeah, uh, Brad Keller a starter again.

I'm just reading off I'm reading off doc, and.

This is apparently teams are interested in sign they shouldn't.

Like this has become a trendy thing now, yeah it has.

But no, no, don't do that.

I can understand, Like, reliever conversions are fine.

Not the guy who was the worst starter in baseball, maybe, like even Mike Soroka at least, like, no, that was a.

Bad idea too.

Well, it was a bad idea too, but at least you could pretend, you know, at least I haven't already seen this on fire.

You want to know what else is a bad idea?

Mason Miller, don't do it.

Just don't do it.

He's not going to be healthy.

Just don't do it.

There are some look Clay Holmes, fine, sure, sure, there are some guys who I think are suited to making that.

Obviously Seth Lugo one of the best conversion stories.

Yeah, well that and like he like really surprised me.

No, I'm saying, right, yeah, like these guys, I just really doubted that.

But platoon resistant, you know, his pitch makes works for it.

Brad Keller is like a huge sweeper guy.

Like, well, I was gonna say, isn't the whole thing that he just spammed his slider?

You can't.

He can't as starter, which actually brings us Patrick.

I really liked your piece.

I think that you you wrote a piece about, uh, the search for a starter who doesn't throw a fastball base or any pitcher.

Like the idea was that any pitcher who just completely went zero fastball, And so I looked at the state of things and yeah, like, basically you need such a weird combination of skills in order to pull that off.

Like, we've got a few guys who were close.

We got guys who were in the twenties for fastball usage, and they're most all middle relievers who can kind of get away with generally having you know, either a platoon you know they're right hand only guys, or you know, you have guys like Pierce Johnson who just has one incredible pitch like killer, except he just throws it literally gets a curveball.

You Johnson's curveball is not like a good platoon pitch either.

I meant to ask you, is that a multi year issue or is it was it last year because he's obviously he's had at least good partial seasons for the Braves specifically, and curveballs are traditionally Yeah, his curveball.

Has more horizontal break than the traditional curveball, and so it it like it it did worse this year than previous years.

But you know, there's like it can work like it's just a good pitch.

Yeah, but yeah, it's it's weird because you need a guy who a doesn't have a fastball we're throwing, So you've eliminated a lot of guys already because they just have decent fastballs that they may as well use.

Then you need to be able to actually like throw strikes in the counts where nobody chases.

And then you also have to have it be fairly platoon neutral.

And there's just like it's a lot of things that have to go right in order for this very arbitrary thing to work.

Yeah, and we laid it on a Noah Cameron, who, uh, Noah Cameron has great average working up except he has a terrible fastball and he doesn't really need to throw it.

His three other pitches his you know, his uncle kurve is his cutter and his slider and is the soft cutter.

They all, Yeah, I think some of this.

Once you move your you know you can you can have a below average metric fastball, which Cameron does when you use it like Griffin Canning did this too, right, when you use it twenty percent of the time, you almost use it as a change of pace off the slow stuff.

Sure, but he also has a true Blood overlaps with his fastball.

Yeah, Matt, Matt true Blood wrote about you Darvish doing that essentially right, like a ninety change up essentially because he has.

Like it still a lot of per Cameron m hm, Cameron's Cameron's fastball even as the twenty eight percent.

Now, the funny thing is that Cameron's twenty eight percent fastball is whiche was the pitch he throws the most, because he literally throws every pitch one fifth at the time.

But like he like and you don't want him like you would rather know a Cameron just through like had it work?

Yeah, or had a fastball that actually worked?

Does that change of pace?

If it did, then so there's only a bad NOA Cameron that doesn't need to throw the fastball.

But like if Noah Cameron sucks next year and then like has to go through like a spiritual reawakening, this might be how he.

Does it, but it just it made sense to me to discuss in the sense of like Brad Keller starting like no, because he can't.

You can't.

Yeah do that, you can't do it?

Yeah, Yeah, of course I'll go be Rinaldo Lopez two point zero and I'll be wrong, but that's you know, it is what it is.

The Yankees bring back Ryan Yarborough.

There's like one year, two and a half.

Yeah, sure, honestly he'll throw like eighty innings somehow, which isn't It's just both not what you want and also like you need him to.

You probably need him to.

You probably need it.

And for two and a half.

Million, phenomenal, Yeah, bad news.

You might dfa him and night.

Yeah, but for two and a half million.

Fine.

It is bad news for Alan win Yes, Foster hopes for twenty six, but it.

Is bad news for the Wine and Winings watch.

Yeah.

I guess Padres did the same with Kyle Harten someone it's more anonymous Ryan, Yes, right, this is not in here, But I did just want to Jeff mentioned from Jeff Passon's piece that the Pirates might Connor Griffin start the year in the majors I just as an around the horn discussion topic.

He also mentions that they're planning to spend money.

Well, they already by the way, the kind number generator had it first.

Yes, did he picked like five players to.

The They did do what we tried on Josh Naylor.

So there you was.

That even really a retried like would be in a normal Josh Naylor contract.

They said they were like planning to go after it.

Yes, well, I mean.

You know you could understand what already.

One conversations and sometimes you're planning to try and like, at least the Pirates have gotten to the planning to try stage.

Look the fact that they were planning to attempt to sign Josh Naylor to a multi year deal.

Yes, I think like and Jeff said this, Jeff Passing said, this bigger than their biggest free agent contract, which is still Francisco Leriano three years, thirty nine million dollars.

I guess that is something right, And and like, I do you believe this?

Do you believe that they're.

Doing like they We mentioned this in the last show.

I think that, like they keep complaining that they're offering multi year deals and not getting them accepted, and like, look, they got outbid by like twenty million dollars on Josh Nayler, but like they gave a fair offer to Josh Nayler.

Well it was like what were they they planned to try to give him a fair offer?

What was do we get?

The said twice as much as their previous contract.

So I see about seventy five million or something, so that would.

Be seven okay, yeah, all right, but now if it was like four to seventy five, honestly, that is like again, I would kind of be like I would have the.

Same pirates having to pay a little more to get players, right, So there's that.

I guess I would have like the same kind of kind of issue where I was I was saying, like, first, baseman, don't really get charge gills, and also you never do these deals, so why Josh Naylor would have that that issue?

I think?

But I would also be like, Okay, the Pirates are trying to avoid agreements in a more ostentatious way.

This is their their A's Louis Severino deal.

I guess I know we love, we love part Simpson references on this podcast, So this is like the one where he like actually studies to retake like the Revolutionary War test or whatever, and still fails, but like then says something that shows like applied knowledge, so apolism of D mind.

It's like trying for this.

They get a D minus.

Fair enough, there's some applied knowledge.

There's some applied knowledge here, all right.

I just I had to mention it.

Yeah, it's we'll see.

They should be spending agents.

There's other agents.

It's fine.

They'll have other opportunities to plan to try.

That takes us to our game.

Yes, uh, so this one is positional plurality.

Colin with Church a friend of mine, submit to this, and so we're gonna put one in the booth and we're just gonna I'm gonna give you one three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve players.

Now did you play this?

I'm not playing this one.

I'm tired.

I'm tired.

I don't feel like it.

Okay, he gave you that option.

Yeah, so he gave me the option.

I declined, So so Jeff will go with you first, all right, let's good.

So Greig needs a deal with this cat.

So okay, yeah, all right, So Jeff, we're gonna start with Alec Burrelson.

What position did he play?

Most?

DH counts, right, yep, DH counts positions.

If you do an outfield, you have to pick it.

I'm gonna say, yeah, I'm gonna say DH.

Okay, Gavin Lux this is for his career, No, this is for this year twenty okay, left field, okay, Tyler Freeman.

Christ center field.

Okay, uh Luis Renhifo.

Why yeah?

Actually making me think about the Angels?

Mm hmm mmmm Like did they like it?

Was Brandon Drewy around it?

He must have been around this year?

Oh they Hadna'll say, yeah, they had Mancanta, but he didn't blame I'm gonna say second base.

I'll just say second base to move on to the Oh, that's a fun one I have.

I honestly have no idea.

I'm gonna guess they had a lot of injuries at second, so we ended up back there a bunch.

I'll say left field.

Again, okay, Dylan Moore, w'd.

Be funny to say DH.

So I'm gonna say DH.

Okay.

I'm glad that you're going straight to it would be funny.

Yeah.

Uh, Enrique hernand Is.

I'd say Craig would be better at this one, but I don't know if he will be because I don't think he will go with left field again.

Okay.

Next is Chase made Roth.

God, they probably played him a shortstop too much, so I'll say shortstop okay.

Uh, Cole Keith m hm.

He dated a lot of the beginning of the year.

Yeah, it's got to be dh.

Okay.

Next is Sorry, I'm trying to check one things.

Colin's numbers are off.

Daniel Schneeman, Come on, Daniel Sneman.

Daniel schne I don't even.

Know what position Daniel Sheman should be playing.

Alone his natural position, and I.

Confuse him with the other guy all the time.

Shuman.

And by the way, this is games, not game started.

Yeah, sure that it does not.

Like No, I just I'm not gonna like try to game.

I changed my answers, like, oh, like he came in a lot of the defensive stuff, Like I don't know if Daniel Stemann came into the defensive substitute.

Uh, I'm gonna say third base, actually, I.

Think okay, that's where Okay, third base Okay, Romiganzalez, I.

Don't know romy Gunzo.

Well, yeah, I know, but like we're like down to like a lot of teams I don't watch.

Like I'm not even entirely sure what team romy Gunzale was played for.

There might be more than one third base to move it along.

Okay in brooks Lee.

Brooks Lee, they like it was hurt.

Like the question with that is like what periods of time where both he and Royce lewis hurt or only one of them hurt.

That's a very difficult question to answer.

Shortstop whatever, all right, Craig headphones on.

Okay, So, uh, Jeff is lucky that I forgot to add something to the scoring which I should have thought of, which is that if you named a position they did not play at all, be worth thinking about it.

So Jeff has three points.

Sure, he went three for twelve.

He picked two plays two times.

Did he pick a position that the player?

I don't think.

I mean, I think I might, I might might.

I hope you like the al central Craig.

Oh, well it's Colin, so you're gonna yeah the centrals are represented?

Yea?

All right?

Is this all?

Twenty twenty five.

Twenty so it's true to lay it all out.

It's twenty twenty five, it's games played, not games started.

And I can't remember the other rule, so right, So tell me.

How we were going to lay it all out?

People?

That one rules which field which outfield?

You can't you can't just do field.

Right and DH is a position, okay, but.

But also specifically left and right, like center is obviously a different thing.

Okay, So left and right and DH is an option option?

All right?

So Alec Burrelson, God, what.

A ah DH?

I think?

Okay, Gavin looks d H all right?

Uh, Tyler Freeman, that.

Was also my reaction, Tyler, Tyler Freeman, I you wouldn't have played center because of Doyle?

Where did did Tyler Freeman play?

Did he?

My recollection, I specifically recall Patrick as I Vampierre, Uh telling you an article on what the hell happened to Tyler free Men's defense?

Because it's which position?

Right, I'm trying to buy time, and I don't know he was hurt for a while, which is why, like on a door came up, I thought it was outfield defense.

Now the question is left or right?

Because Doyle was in center.

I gotta go left.

I can't imagine they're playing him and right.

I'm gonna go left, but I don't have confidence in that.

Luis ran fel Man, that is a great question.

Well, they don't really have a third basement, so NATO's shortstop.

I know he missed some time.

They called up Christian Moore, but who played it before Christian Moore?

And he wasn't good?

And then Moncata was at third base but often out.

Mmmm, that is a tough one.

I'm gonna go third, okay, but I don't feel good about it.

Hoosel to then.

I man him and Dubon that's stuff.

Maybe he ended up I think he because your Don was hurt.

I think he ended up dhing the most.

I'm gonna say d h okay, Dylan Moore, Dylan Dylan, no one.

No one has to track Dylan Moore.

Not anymore.

At least, Oh God, wouldn't be second base because the Semian that wouldn't be.

They played Burger and stuff at first.

I did they play him in center?

That's embarrassing, but they had a weird center.

I'm gonna say center.

I don't feel good.

He might not have ever played tener I don't know.

I don't.

I said, just thought it would be fine.

It might it might be, it might be d I don't know.

Enrique Hymna is, Oh, well I should know that.

My reaction was Craig should have an advantage here, but maybe he does.

Yeah, it's the he was hurt a lot.

I think third base because he filled in a lot for monthsy in that in that time when he hurt his knee.

Okay, I'm gonna say third base, Chase made Roth shortstop okay, cold Keith, oh Cole Keith barely blade didn't he did?

He?

He was heard at the end.

Don't think he should.

He played most of the.

Man.

Uh you know what it's like weird, But I'm gonna say.

D h okay, uh, Daniel Schneman.

Oh, second base, I think romy Gonzalez.

Okay, that's where I tapped out one of.

The few ones I would have gotten.

He I think he played a lot of second base for the Red Sox.

Brooks Lee or was he in the house hold on to No?

I mean if you if I said that, then it's fine.

I'm just but I am, You're fine.

I forgot on the Red Sox this year.

Yeah, no, I know it's the Red Sox.

You we've talked about him like being there right handed.

No, because Toro was at first at the same time.

Yeah, I'm gonna go second base.

Brooks Lee.

Who brooks Lee?

Oh oh the Twins.

It's not a no.

I I had a I honestly, my brain like somehow went to brooks Conrad and I was like, there's no way he's around brooks Lee.

Correy was hurt a lot.

Brooks Lee was hurt a lot.

Their second base issue, well, Willie Castro, I think from the All Star thing, Willie Castro was their second baseman short stop.

I don't I don't have a lot of confidence.

Well, congratulations to Craig who routes this one.

Yeah sixty three, oh scond okay six double double but also.

Half yep, and also you didn't get any completely wrong.

Uh.

The answer Alec Burlson his first base.

He played fifty games there, forty and.

Less, all the all the Wilson contraras injuries, I.

Guess twenty two at the age Gavin Lux was in fact primarily a DH second.

Yeah, I remember that when Craig said it, Like also, just like what the how did the Reds make the playoffs.

Yeah, Tyler Freeman was in fact a right fielder for sixty six games, more than half of the games.

Oh, I said, Oh, I almost at the end.

Yeah, Okay.

Louis Franifo played seventy six games at third and seventy four games at second.

I mean that's just a toss up.

Yeah, that's a toss up.

Josel TV also mostly second, six games there, forty nine at DH and forty seven and left like spread and spread up pretty.

Dylan Moore, you kept Greig, You kept talking about his Rangers time, as if like he hadn't spent most of the year with the Mariners.

I remember him as a Ranger.

Yeah, Dylan Moore played the thirty nine games at second base before.

Okay, uh, thirty one at right now.

I honestly didn't remember when he left.

Six and DH and one in center field.

He like it.

I like that was not one of the ones.

Uh, In Ricky and Vandez twenty games at first base.

Yeah, he covered for Freeman apparently, and I think.

Oh I remember complaining about that at some point this.

Year because it made no sense not to move Munsey there.

Yes, yeah, yeah, twenty seven at third base.

He was one game few were a second at third base and then twenty.

Three okay, spread, Yeah.

You guys both got Chase Maydroth he was more of a short step and a second base in tele was the Montgomery showed up.

Col Keith was a DH primarily for the first couple of months of the season.

Yeah, I remember him like that's what he said him out.

Dude, it didn't make opening day.

Daniel Sheman is the second basement, or at least he was this year.

Again, he is part part he for the first half of this year, and that's he came up on the on the All Star Yeah.

Sheman seventy four second base, twenty seven third base, and twenty four in center.

Sorry, who is this?

This is Seman so the center second basement centerfielder Roman Gonzalez is a Red Sox.

He is primarily a first basement I thought platooned.

In first tuned ah, okay, yep.

And then he played forty second, forty two games a second, and Brooksley was primarily a shortstop seventy seven games at short, forty three at third, thirty second okay.

Okay, yeah he got and one hose.

I'm sorry that so yep, congratulations to Greg.

I will take you.

Well, thank you, not even not even erotic, and save Jeff unless we got this.

Up.

And just if it is, it's it's Colin's fault.

So that's why go ahead and look up Dylan Moore's numbers just to make sure.

Actually I already did on that one, because yeah.

The type of also don't well.

Thank you Colin for the game, Thank you Patrick for running it, and thank you both to co hosting this for coasting this episode.

Thank you to our listeners for joining us on another episode of five and Dive brought to you by the Baseball Perspectives podcast Network.

You can get in touch with the show with your own game if you so choose, at five and Dive at Baseball Perspectives dot com.

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Uh.

I don't know what our cadence is gonna be.

It's gonna be reacting to the news kind of as as necessary.

There is a down shift in the off season too, closer to one per week, but we'll see how it goes.

So we'll see you when you see Yeah, if you've been waiting for the pod to be over, your time is now.

I can't vacancy.

Can my family still?

The fucking I can be answer