The headlines say the economy is crashing again, But what does the actual data say?

Because when I dug into the numbers myself, what I found was shocking.

Now, it's nothing like the headlines would have you believe.

In fact, there's one stat that would flip the entire narrative upside down.

And if you're just doom scrolling headlines, you're sitting there in fear, then you're gonna miss the biggest wealth window of this decade real quick.

I'm Mark Mossov spent over twenty years tracking boom and bus cycles, helping investors cut through the noise to find the signal.

And what I'm about to show you might completely change how you see the economy.

So let's go all right, So we're gonna jump right into it, and we're gonna show you.

Well, first the doomer headlines that gets all the headlines, and the reason why is it gets all the clicks.

And to be honest with you, it's hard for me getting you to come watch this video if I don't have some sort of doomer.

So we'll start the bad news and then we'll get to the real data.

Now, the big bad doomer headline is GENIP gross domestic product went negative.

Negative.

Now this is after eleven quarters of positive growth.

It's a big deal.

Trump is crashing the economy.

What is he doing?

How dare he wreck the entire world economy?

Don't you know that other nations are going to hate the United States and love did you trade with us?

Again?

And all of those things?

Well?

Well, yes, So here is a government statistic.

This is from the BEEA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, And what this is showing is GDP gross domestic product for the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

And what they're showing is that we have now a negative quarter after all these positive quarters.

This is this line here is about three percent, so a little bit less than three percent, and now we have a negative print.

Boohoo.

The media headlines love to pick up on this, and it's true.

Now, if we go out a little bit further, you might remember this.

By the way, I'm using some charts here from my friends over at the Bitcoin Layer.

You should check them out.

We'll link to them in the description down below.

Also, my friend Pete saint Ange, we're using some stuff from his news as well.

But what we can see here is that we have this negative GDP print.

After all these positive gdpre prints except for this one over here.

Now you might remember this one when Biden was president and everyone starts talking about the US is in a recession, and then Biden says the Biden administration says, well, that's not a technical recession.

You might remember that anyway.

So now we have a negative GDP print.

However, that's the headline.

What we want to do is we want to peel back the data, what's in the GDP so we can understand what's really going on.

Is this something that we should be alarmed for or is this something that we should think about differently?

Okay, so the data.

We want to go into the data.

That's why I show you the charts.

I show you the graphs so you can see the size of the speed, all those things.

And we first of all want to understand GDP.

So GDP is gross domestic product g domestic product.

The reason why I say that is because first of all, GDP is all messed up, Like if the government is taking money from you and I from TIMEX dollars and spending that should they be counted as gross domestic product?

It's not really producing any product.

It's just redistribution, right.

It certainly shouldn't be counting Toyota trucks that were made overseas and then brought into the United States, and so the whole GDP basket is a little bit messed up.

As a matter of fact, Howard Lutnik, the new Secretary of Commerce, says he wants to redo the entire GDB basket, which I think I'm welcoming, okay, But understanding that because it's domestic product, then we can start to understand the data.

What am I talking about?

Well, what we can see is that when we peel back the curtain and look at the data, what we see is that imports surged forty one percent, so again from the bea contributions to the percent change in GDP for the first quarter.

And what we can see is that we have consumer spending was positive.

Investment spending was big time positive.

We're going to come back to that government spending was down.

That should be good, right, Government spending was down and exports up a little bit.

But here look at this one right here, this is a big negative.

Imports.

The imports were a big negative to GDP.

Why because it's supposed to be domestic product.

So if we're importing from someone else, that sort of takes away from the domestic product, which is why it counts as a negative.

But here's the problem.

We have this forty one percent surge in imports, so it takes away from GDP, giving it this negative thing.

But why is this a massive surge of imports?

Well because of tariffs, because tariffs were announced, massive tariffs maybe you know, one hundred and hundre percent on China, and so everybody is front rating.

Everyone's trying to import all the goods they need right now because they don't know what the prices will be later.

And so we have this what I'm calling a sugar rush.

That's all happening now.

It's important understanding this is like a one time thing.

This isn't like a new trend.

This is something that will continue.

It's a one time thing, and it's because of this unusual circumstance of like I said, of these tariffs and not knowing what's going to be next.

So what we want to do is what does that mean If it's a one time thing that was because of this tariff, it's not an ongoing thing, Well, what would happen if that wasn't there, let's take a look at that.

What we can see is that all the pain was caused by a forty one percent surge of imports from Pete Saint one fronting tariffs, and this counts as negative GDP, so it counts against it the actual GDP.

If we take that out, the actual GDP sored by a blistering four and a half percent.

Now I just showed you the historical GDP for the last couple of years.

Four and a half percent is massive.

It's way bigger than we've seen in the last several years.

Blistering as he calls it.

But it actually gets better than that.

Hold on, there's more.

Because government spending dropped for the first time since twenty twenty two.

I showed you that in the chart.

Why is that a good thing?

Well, because remember the government spending is only spending money that it's taken from you and I, So one, it shouldn't be double counted.

Number two, the government's running massive deficits.

So there's about two trillion roughly of spending per year that's debt into the debt.

So if the government can spend less, then one we bring the debt down number one, but number two.

It gets even better than that because consumer spending outpaced government spending by three point two percent.

So private spending, consumer spending, that's the real data, not the government spending, not the fiscal spending.

It's you and I.

So that's why government went down, consumer spending picked up.

This is also the best number since twenty twenty two.

The Biden administration was hiring massive amounts of government workers, bringing the government spending numbers up to sort of goose the data, goost the numbers, So a lot of the bad numbers that we're seeing are getting back to like real data, which is why we're seeing the best numbers since twenty twenty two.

Now, control for that dropping government spending, and the economy grew by nearly five percent.

So now you take out the one time sugar rush, you adjust for the difference in consumer and government spending, and now we have an economy growing by nearly five percent.

Sounds really good.

There's more in the data.

We're going to get to it.

Remember there was one stat I was going to show you, So now we're about five percent.

Now, I want to just say real quickly before we go too deep.

I like to look at the data.

If you're new to the channel, you may not have been watching me for very long.

Here's some videos that are pulled going back to October of twenty two.

Now you might remember in October of twenty twenty two, the whole world was going to end, the markets were going to crash and all these things, and I made a video said, there is no market crash coming.

And here's why.

The real data.

The FED doesn't want you to see the data showing it's time to buy.

The central banks are going to be forced into this playbook easing the markets.

Breaking data shows the FED pivots here it's time to start buying.

The new data tells us it's time to buy.

So this is from October twenty twenty two, going all the way forward, we have one of the why aren't the markets crash coming?

Breaking that down for my prediction for financial markets on and on on, bear markets canceled, on and on and on.

Now that was out of time again when the whole world thought the markets were going to crash, and it was right here in the lows.

October of twenty two is when I started making those videos.

And of course the Nasdaq is up about one hundred percent since that time.

Also some more receipts here.

These are videos I made telling you was historic times to buy bitcoin six seven, twenty two, nineteen thousand, seven nineteen twenty two, nineteen thousand Bitcoin is fifteen thousand, twenty thousand, twenty six thousand.

Of course, now it's up over one hundred thousand dollars or around one hundred thousand dollars right now.

So I just want to show you that I haven't always been a doomer.

I have the receipts to prove it, and those videos are all still up on my channel.

You can go watch them.

So why do I say that real quickly?

Because we can look past the headlines, and look past the media, and look past the hysteria and look at the data, we see something different.

Okay, Before I go on to tell you about this hidden bowl market and what the data is really telling this is going to happen, I want to let you know that next week I'm gonna have a live event like I do about every four to six weeks, where I can go into depth.

Here, we'll go about an hour.

I'm gonna have about thirty thirty five charts show you exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio.

It's one thing to have the knowledge, but if you don't apply the knowledge, if you don't know what assets to buy to take advantage of this bull run, it doesn't really do it a lot of good.

So come hang out.

I'm going to break the entire case down, show you all the charts to graphs what I'm buying, and then we hang out live Q and A.

It's super fun.

We'll answer all your questions.

It's all free.

There's a link down below if you want to come join me, Join me live.

Hope to see you there.

But what is the data showing us?

And why do I think there's a hidden bull market ready to emerge?

Well, a couple of reasons again back into the data.

Number one, we want to look at the private the sales to private domestic purchasers, the consumers, the private domessage purchase, the PCE and what we can see here going back to twenty twenty two, we can see that we are still above sort of normal.

Right.

We don't have this big sugar rush that was kind of the snapback reversion of the mean here, but we're doing really well.

The market's looking actually really really strong, nothing like you would hear on the news that the consumers stretch, then the economy is crumbling all those things.

So it's up three percent.

We can see the PCE we can see is up one point seven nine percent.

This is of personal consumption expenditures.

We can see here.

The green is the consumer spending services of two point almost two point four percent, the red here consumer spending goods total a little bit low, and then consumer spending non durable goods two point seven percent.

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So the spending is looking really good.

Again, past the headlines, past the media driven polls, and looking at the data, what we can see is that there's kind of a difference in shifting of purchases.

But we can see here there's a rise in personal savings.

So on top of that, personal savings has also gone up.

So the consumer is still spending, they're still buying.

On top of the spending.

On top of the buying holding up, we have savings going up.

So that tells something very different.

That tells that the economy is not crumbling, that the consumer is doing pretty good.

Now, look, I understand there's millions of people that are not doing good.

There's also millions of people that are doing really good, and so this is not a model that everybody's a little bit different.

But the data is showing us that the economy is not crumbling like they want to say it is.

However, this doesn't even break down what I really think is happening.

Okay, the businesses, the business spending, the business investments are going parabolic, consumers holding up.

Businesses are going parabolic.

Let me break what I break that down.

All right, what we've seen here I talked about this on a previous video, that private investments, businesses investing into their future production, into factories and equipment things that are up twenty two percent.

Twenty two percent.

We are talking a massive number.

This is the biggest spike since twenty twenty one.

Again from my friends over the bitcoin layer.

US business capital spending and so what we can see here Q one.

Look how big those numbers are.

Look how big those numbers are.

I mean, you don't even compare.

This is just on Q one.

Now what does that mean for us?

Well, if businesses, the smart consumer, the one that's paying attention, the one that has skinning the game, if they're making this big of investments into the future, new equipment, new buildings, new manufacturing, things like that, they are expecting big things to happen.

All right, there's more to that, we'll break down that.

But that's big.

Equipment spending is up twenty two and a half percent.

Again, this is long term thinking.

This is the big businesses they see positive economic growth in the future.

The big one here information processing equipment, information processing, think data centers, think computers is up seventy percent annualized.

This is an all time record, all time record spending in information processing services.

And I recently did a video on Trump announced eight trillion dollars has already been committed to be invested into the United States.

Eight trillion dollars or twenty two percent, massive and new deals.

We'll link to that video right here if you want, or check it out on the description dob the eight trillion dollar tsunami that's about to hit, we'll call it that.

And really, what we're seeing is this new industrial revolution.

This is just the beginning.

We're eight trillion dollars just being invested into the country right now.

But what does that mean?

Where does it go?

And so much more?

Well, Number one, we have an AI boom and it's onshore and boom.

So as I said, the information processing, the computers AI is driving the capex, the capital expenditures.

So we have this massive surge seventy one percent on an annualized basis an all time record on that.

And why do you think that is?

Well, because AI is taking off so fast, we have physical compute is needed right so in order to build all these large language models, all these llms.

You need lots of compute, You need lots of servers, you need warehouses, you need data centers, you need lots of materials to build these things out.

We can see again.

Let's take a look at a chart courtesy of the Bitcoin Layer US real private fixed investment for information processing equipment, and look at this number right here compared to some mean right here since two thousand and eight.

Now, obviously AI is something new, but since two thousand and eight, we had the iPhone and we had cloud competing and all that take off as well.

This is taking off at a whole nother level like we've never even seen before.

And really we're seeing this new wave of onshouring.

Like I said, over eight trillion dollars has been announced to be built here, and a lot of that is in this information marketing.

Now, if you follow my work, it shouldn't be a big surprise to you.

Of course, I always talk about the quantum leaf cycle that happens about every fifty years, and the one that is just starting.

So this happened six times one, two, three, four or five.

We're on the sixth one right now, and this is the decentralized revolution.

This is the convergence of bitcoin and AI coming together and how they work together to give us a whole nother set of building blocks to build things that we don't even know about.

So if you follow my work and you understand the cycles, this AI boom shouldn't be a big surprise.

It's more of a confirmation of that.

Okay, And we have this new wave of onshooring.

And this is again even for blue collar workers.

Right We need to build the warehouse, we need to build the data centers.

It's the largest relocation of capital since World War II.

I just did a video on this talking about how after World War II the US sort of had this wartime economy and reindustrialized, and now we're doing the same thing.

Right now, I expect another massive era of prosperity.

The reason why is because the US is becoming the global hub for this, the global hub for AI, the global hub for processing, the global hub for data processing.

It's all happening right here.

Okay.

So that's the data with a little bit of my opinion on top of it.

But the data is the data.

So what we're trying to do as investors is we're trying to find the signal through all the noise, because there's plenty of noise out there.

For anyone saying one thing, you can find someone saying the other.

What do they say about opinions fill in the blank.

I'm not going to answer that, right, But we've all this noise.

And again, what gets media headlines, what gets YouTube views, what gets you to click on these videos is talking about sensational, new more stuff.

But we want to find the signal, and we do that by understanding what's fact data and then what's opinion?

All right, so that's what we want to understand.

The noise is all the negative headlines that gets you to click, But the signal tells us something different, and we can choose to interpret the data differently.

But what we can see is by looking at some of these charts, it can give us more information.

So for example, when this was announced, the negative GDP print and all the news media ran into hysteria telling you how bad things are and Trump's going to crash the entire world.

What we saw is that risk assets which would typically sell off quickly like the bitcoin, like S and P five hundred, for example, they didn't.

They didn't sell off.

As a matter of fact, they're really very resilient and they've only been going up since then.

Huh.

That's interesting.

So the media is trying to whip us up into hysteria.

The YouTubers and the Twitter people are trying to put us in that hysteria.

But the data, huh, the assets were pretty resilient.

We also know that if we you look at global liquidity again, if you watch my channel on a regular basis, you know that I always talk about global equidity because it's global liquidity pushes asset prices higher, so we always want to keep our eye on that.

One of my favorite people to follow for global equity is Michael how This just came out a couple of days ago.

Global equity is rising.

That's the headline.

It's rising.

How much is it rising?

It reached a new all time high of one hundred and seventy seven trillion dollars, a new all time high.

On liquidy, it's still coming on, but it gets better.

Expect the current liquidity cycle.

Oh, he expected the current liquidity cycle to peak around Q four this year, so he's been talking about this.

Of course, I talk about his research all the time.

We typically have about these four year liquidity cycles, not to the day plus or minus.

And because of that, he's been expecting it to peak sometime around the end of this year.

Of course, if you're a bitcoin bowl, you understand there's four year cycles as well.

It's a lot of people think that maybe bitcoin would peak around the end of this year as well.

However, he says, however, the rapidly deteriorating global economy, which will likely spur central banks to ease we've already seen it, has caused us to reconsider maybe it's not gonna end twenty twenty six.

All in all, we now expect the cycle to peak in mid twenty twenty six because right now the central banks are just starting to fire up their money printers, if you will.

The Federal Reserve is just has just been easing lately.

Right this is all getting going, and so he thought it might peak in them the year, and now I says mid twenty twenty six.

And because of that, risk asset markets and liquidity sensitive cryptocurrencies.

So basically risk assets bitcoin are benefiting.

Hmm.

Okay, so that's the data, that's the data.

Global equidity is rising.

We also can look at the data and go well, the bonds, the bond market, they didn't crash, they hold study.

As a matter of fact, they eased a little bit.

So all of the data points are telling us that the signal tells us that things are really good, and not just really good.

They're loading up for a sling shot.

That's what it's telling us.

We see rising wages and stable inflation.

So if wages are going up and inflation is stable, so wages are going up faster than the cost of goods, that means the consumer has more money to spend, which means a better economy.

Now, we can also see because of this, because of liquidity easy and rising, we can also see a change in consumer credit lags by about a year, and so because liquidity has been going up, we can expect consumer credit to be going up next.

And again, if the consumer gets credit, what do they do They spend it on things more cars, more vacations, more going out to eat whatever, more clothes, et cetera.

They should be buying assets.

You and I we're buying assets the consumer though.

Okay, so what we want to understand is that there's a fake chap.

The media is incentivized to get you in fear to get clicks.

They're also, unfortunately in the United States, heavily politicized, and they use the media politicized as a weapon.

So one day one clicks two, they use it as a weapon.

So we don't want to get trapped in that fake trap.

We want to understand that they weaponized fear and learn how to separate fact and fiction, fact and opinion.

The GDP is a headline number, it's a lagging indicator, and it's also a distorted metric.

I've explained that to you and why that is.

Fear equals clicks.

Clicks equals you stay broke again.

I started making videos in October twenty twenty two, told people's time to buy.

I was putting money back in and so many people sat on the sidelines.

One of my good friends, he's a big macroeconomic YouTuber.

You might know who I'm talking about.

We do a lot of videos together.

We had dinner in August of twenty twenty three after I made that video called the bear Market is Canceled, and he told me, Mark, how irresponsible of you to make that video right now?

Don't you know the yield curve is inverted and blah blah, blah, Yeah, but bigcoin was like thirty five thousand.

Now it's tripled since then.

So how much money you lose on the sideline crippled in fear because the media is weaponizing these headlines against you instead of just looking at the data.

Now, what I see, because I study history, I see this mirrors past moments like two thousand and nine or like twenty twenty.

Those were historic times to be buying and pushing into the markets, not sitting on the sidelines crippled with fear.

The cost to following the fear narrative is what we call lost opportunity cost.

It's missing this window.

That's the cost, and ultimately you'll miss generational buying opportunities.

This only comes around every fifty years.

The fifty year quantum wave cycle tells us this.

So you can sit on the sideline cripple the fear because of the news headlines, or you can learn how to read the data and understand this only comes around in fifty years, Or you can let me interpret the data for you.

Come hang out with me next week.

I'll break down about one hundred charts, we'll go live.

I'll tell you exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio where I think the very best investments are, and then we'll hang out out.

We'll do all the live Q and A so you can figure out exactly how to answer your questions and apply Drum portfolio.

There's a link down below if you want to come hang out and hang out for free.

Hope to see you there.

But otherwise, if you want to understand this a little bit better, you probably want to watch this video right here about where eight trillion dollars is actually gonna go.

And I hope to see you over on that other video