Navigated to Fantasy Hockey Life Ep. 429 Toronto Maple Leafs with Nate from Apples and Ginos - Transcript

Fantasy Hockey Life Ep. 429 Toronto Maple Leafs with Nate from Apples and Ginos

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league.

Speaker 2

Block off hot a step hit on, staylock.

Speaker 1

Here's your hosts, Jesse Sovier and Victor Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live once again.

Speaker 3

We are getting so close, Victor, but today we are gonna talk one more team.

You are the Fantasy Hockey Doctor.

I'm some guy from fan Tracks.

How you doing today?

Speaker 2

I am doing awesome, Jesse, some guy from pantracks.

How are you doing?

Speaker 3

That's right, I'm just some guy.

I should have a shirt that just says I'm some guy.

No, Victor, I'm doing well.

It is that time of year, it is we're close.

We are so frigging close to hockey, to real hockey, Victor.

Can you feel it?

Can you feel it in your bones out there?

Speaker 2

Definitely?

Yeah.

Starting to see some prospect action Ohl, some KHL actions.

There's some junior leagues that are getting going over there in Sweden Finland are starting up.

So it's all getting there.

And we're only a couple of weeks or pretty close actually to training camps.

So it's happening.

It's feeling like all the things are happening, Jesse.

Speaker 3

That's right, it's all happening.

It's all happening.

The buzz will start.

And when the buzz starts, you'll probably see it over in the Fantasy Hockey Life discord because it's free and it's got hundreds of hockey fans.

I'll talk about yourselves.

There's people there who are setting up leagues right now.

Now's the time of year to find that.

I saw one person in there today saying, Hey, I'd be willing to jump into an orphan team in a dynasty league.

That's that guy is my dream.

I don't happen to need one any money leagues right now, but it seems like I'm always looking for somebody in some kind of league to jump in.

And I think that's not the only one.

But more to the point, probably people are setting up new leagues.

You could do that.

Heck, you go in and try to start up a league, dear listener, you go do itor.

If people can get in, they just have to email us Fantasy Hockey Live at gmail dot com.

We'll give you the little link you pop at the discord bing bang boom, But victory.

You have other things to offer people in addition to that free discord right.

Speaker 2

Absolutely a lot of great bonus content over at patreon dot com.

You can listen to patron Cast, which we're going to be doing a fun called their Trophy Draft, which would be great.

One of the things that we didn't mention publicly, but I put together a Guillotine League, which should be super fun, and that's something that I opened up to all patrons, and there's a cash reward and I covered the entry We covered the entry league fee for them, so people get to play in this fun league for free as a patron, and it's if you never play in a Guillotine league, it's really fun.

Basically, the worst team each week gets eliminated, all those players go to free agent, and then the rest of the teams fight over those players.

It sounds super fun.

It's been done in other leagues and other sports, but this is the first time we're trying it.

And of course, fantracks a lot you to do that allow you to do all kinds of fun things, so that's fun.

We're drafting for that right now.

There's also you can get on the wait list for the tidy for the Tier Dynasty that's gonna be super fun and we'll be having tidy episodes coming up.

So patron cast ranks, tiers, lists, all that great stuff at the website.

Go over to patreon dot COM's Last Fantasy Hockey Life and check it out.

Speaker 3

Yes, sir, we'll be right back to talk to our guests.

We welcome to the show.

I can't believe he's a first time guest, but he is one of the He is one of the elite podcasters in the space right now.

He is making all the good stuff over at Apples and Ginos.

It is Nate.

How you doing today, Nate.

Speaker 4

I'm doing better now with that intro.

It's been a it's been a good week.

We're finally getting into true fantasy hockey season.

We were getting ready for a new season of NHL Hockey and it couldn't be more excited.

Speaker 3

Yeah, no, absolutely, And we're gonna talk about the Maple Leafs today.

Nate.

This is this your team?

Is this your favorite team?

Speaker 4

This is my favorite team.

Unfortunately it has not been an easy ride.

But this is a legacy passed down from generations before, so I didn't have that much choice in the matter.

Speaker 3

Yeah, all right, I'll try to set it up for you here, Nate.

The Leafs won the Atlantic Division.

They were top five at shooting percentage and say percentage.

Last year, they won the first round very narrowly lost in the second round, giving the back to Bat champs their closest series of the playoffs.

That they were slightly upset in the second round, but basically about where their record would have had them.

Naturally, everybody in Toronto reacted very calmly.

The team had a nondescript offseason and everything is going to pick up right where it left off in October.

Except for losing the twenty eight year old fifth leading score in the history of an Original six franchise, who seemed to not like getting docks threatened and so forth at the end of his time in Toronto.

The truth is actually a side.

It's always those few knuckleheads.

Speaker 2

Really.

Speaker 3

The truth is actually, aside from that, the team is pretty similar to last year.

As the loss of Mitch Marner.

We'll talk about one big ad a little bit later today, but we're going to talk about all these recurring characters or returning characters on the team one by one.

But what's the big picture here is the windows still open in the post Marner era.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think the windows still open.

Definitely, on paper, it looks like a step backwards.

Speaker 2

It's heart.

Speaker 4

You can't replace a player of Mitch Marner's caliber.

On paper, there's pretty much no way to do it.

People are talking about how they went and spent that money on three third liners, and they're not too heavy about it in lease Land a lot of the time.

But I think they were forced into that position by previous decisions made by management, getting Mitch Marner to this point where he had to make this decision.

Overall, like I do think this season.

Speaker 2

Was a success.

Speaker 4

Garubay got the players to buy into the new system that he had here.

It wasn't as an exciting offensive system as Sheldon Keith had brought in years prior, but the players really did buy in.

I think they reassembled the defense cores and that was a big reason why they were able to give to Florida Panthers as much trouble as they were just big, muscly guys who could take a bit of a beating that the Panthers liked to bestow on opposing defenses, especially in the playoffs.

And so I think the general plan was a success.

And obviously they're left with not the desirable result in the end.

Looking ahead, I think you have to project a somewhat of a step backwards, especially for fantasy purposes with Marner out of town, But that will open some opportunities for some other players as well.

Speaker 3

Let's start with Austin Matthews.

It was an unfortunate year for Matthews.

The injuries nagged at him.

That was the main thing that I saw.

I think I recall yet why to Germany for treatment?

At one point he missed fifteen games all told.

Yet somehow seventy eight points in sixty seven games.

Shots per sixty were still top five in the league.

He averages well over a block and two thirds of a hit per game in our tidy system.

The dinged up Austin Matthews was still seventh in fantasy points per game.

All in all, not a great way to start his big new contract.

But Austin's the captain of the NHL's premo franchise and he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

He should be able to keep up that success this year if he's healthy.

What do you think about matthew season and is he going to bounce back and give us that elite season we're looking for.

Speaker 2

Nate.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think the key here is he one hundred percent healthy for the whole year.

I don't know how you feel about it, but I always feel better when I hear in the offseason, yeah, he's gonna have surgery and everything's gonna be fixed, and then he's going to be one hundred percent ready to go come September.

And the plan for Matthews was just more rest.

And that just felt scary to me to hear that that there wasn't like some issue that they felt they could fix and get him back at one hundred percent.

It's just more rest.

I'm not a doctor, I'm not claiming to be.

I'll leave that to Victor and the rest of the doctors that we have out here, but that part is a little bit scary, and with good reason that being said, Like even playing through some pretty obvious pain at times, Matthews did still have a tremendous season, absolutely on that kind of Hall of Fame trajectory you're talking about.

The big question outside of the injury is what can he do with Marner out of town?

And I honestly don't think it's going to affect him as much as a lot of people do.

People ask the same question about Ovechkin when Nicholas Backstrom left, and I think Ovechkin and Matthews is Matthews.

There's a reason that these guys put the puck in the net as much as they do.

I went a little bit deeper than that.

I went into the five y five time on ice with and apart from Marner, trying to figure out what Matthews looked like under the hood when he played with Marner at five five and when he was away from him, And honestly, the individual scoring chance is four p sixty slightly better without Marner on the ice, which is not something you would have assumed.

His shooting percentage was slightly better without Marner at fivey five as well, also not something you would have assumed.

His shot rate, his actual shots per sixty did fall a little bit, so he's shooting a little bit less, but he is being more efficient getting more high danger shots without Marner over the last three years, and so I really think that it's a little bit overblown how much Marner leaving is going to affect Matthews.

I still think he's pretty elite at the end of the day, and I do have him projected for fifty goals, one hundred points.

I think, honestly, Brubay's effect on this team is a bigger story for matthews fantasy projection than Marner leaving town.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I'll just say that as a physician, surgery doesn't always fix everything right.

So sometimes, and I hear what you're saying.

Sometimes it's great when there's a simple, easy solution, but it isn't always the case, and sometimes things go sideways, and sometimes you just need to rehab.

So the reality is that we don't really know what's going on.

Only his doctors know.

So I agree with you though about the optimism for Matthews.

So I'm excited for that, and I'm really excited for this next guy because we've been talking for years about how the Maple Leafs have two first line right wings and now they only have one.

But it's big Willie time.

And he had his fourth straight eighty plus point season, continuing to put up elite underlying offensive metrics.

He scored a career high forty five goals despite the decline and his shot volume from three point nine to three point one shots per game, and he scored a career high seventeen point seven on percent of those shots, which that's a little high.

That might come down.

But with his low hit and block rates combined with the decreasing shot volume, his bash went from went down to three point six to one per game, which ranked him three hundred and twenty third.

He used to be much better for bash, but as the scoring has gone up, his bash has got down a little bit.

So obviously we talked about the departure of Marner.

I definitely feel like Nilander can take up a lot of the slack and get a lot of that scoring.

But I think it depends if he sticks with Tavaras and move to play with Matthews.

I feel like it's gonna hopefully he gets some time with Matthews.

But what do you think, Natan, what do you think his production is going to be this season?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think it's definitely possible that he plays with Matthews.

They've tried this combination a few times.

Obviously, Marner has been matthews line mate for the vast majority of the time that the two have been there together in Toronto, but they have tried Nelander there and it's always worked.

You're talking about two elite players.

You put them together, they'll they're going to figure it out.

So if he does get that would obviously be a lot better for Kneelander, a lot worse for Tavars.

But either way, Neelander's going to get his I haven't projected again for forty three goals, eighty five points, thirty points on the power play.

I think that he's just really consistent in this range.

I don't think that he's going to get some big boost in terms of the time on ice the power play.

I don't think that's necessarily in the cards here.

I don't think there's a lot more that you can really ask of a guy at even strength.

Just by the virtue of game flow, you're going to have some short handed opportunities that Kneelander's just going to be off the ice.

So I don't really see him getting much beyond the nineteen and a half minutes that I'm projected for.

But you are talking about a guy who is absolutely elite in everything.

We like to look at all the underlying metrics, the advanced stats, the all three zones, microstats, soon entries controlled the entry percentages, entries with chances high dangeroussists, whatever you want to look at.

William neelanders absolutely up there and I feel really confident about eighty five point projection and always a chance for more.

Speaker 3

On to John Tavares, the senior statesman of that former core four, has signed on for most of the remainder of his thirties at a fraction of his former salary.

He was still highly productive in twenty four to twenty five.

I feel like John Tavares of anything that has become underrated, and I don't understand it.

He was actually second on the team and goals above our placement last year, behind the aforementioned Marner.

The advanced stats are a little all over the place, actually, but he and Neilander continue to make a good team when they're together.

He remains a mainstay on the top power play.

What do you think?

How is JT going to score this year?

With whom?

What is your thought on this guy?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 4

I still have Tavarius for a pretty healthy projection thirty five goals, seventy four points, twenty one of that on the power play, one hundred and five hits as well, which is nice for your bangers leagues.

I really think that Tavers does work well with Kneelander at even strength.

I think it's probable that they keep those two together and let Nys and Matthews be compearing on the top line, run these duos together, and then try to work in the third wheel on either side of them.

The thing with Tavares is obviously he's slowing down, he's getting advanced in age, but it really doesn't seem like the mind has left him.

He's still a really good hockey mind.

He knows where to be, he knows how to play off ofland Neelander's the guy with the puck on his stick, and Tavarus is at the end of passes a whole lot, and he's really good at getting into the right spot.

Going to be a key part of that power play, perhaps even more so with Marner out of town, they'll be looking to feed him even more.

I do think that Tavares is in line for another season.

I don't think we've seen a sign yet for him to really fall off.

Speaker 2

And the next guy, Matthew Nice, he had a breakout season, jumping from thirty five to fifty eight points.

Increases numbers across the board, tim and I shots, hits, blocks, he mostly played on the line with Matthews and Marner, earned that top that spot on the top power play you need after the first month of the season.

Excellent bash here, four point seventy nine bash per game, ranking him seventy ninth.

That's a big reason why he was early on noticeable to fantasy gms.

But then the scoring game too, which is really exciting.

So do you think Nice can build on that season, Nate, and get up till seventy ish point pace.

It certainly seems like he has the opportunity, but his shooting percentage seems like it might come down a little bit.

Speaker 4

Yeah, that's going to be the tough part here is how much that shooting percentage can we believe nineteen point one percent last year?

That being said, like he only factored into fifty six percent of the goal scored when he was on the ice last year, and with another year, can he take another step in that department?

Can he be one of the more primary play drivers.

With Marner out of town, maybe Nice has the puck on his stick a little bit more and he and Matthews are able to work together as that duo on the top line.

I think that's definitely possible skated eighteen and a half minutes on average last year.

I think that might even go up.

I have him projected for just under twenty.

I think that it's reasonable to suggest that he's at least going to match what he did last year, and just by virtual volume, with always a chance for more on the power play, with always a chance for more, just by virtue of if he is able to sustain a higher shooting percentage.

Speaker 2

And we got to talk about the newcomer, Mattias Mitchelli.

I've long been a fan of Michelli, even back to his prospect days.

After an early breakout career in Arizona, the twenty four year old winger had a pretty difficult season in Utah.

He started in the top six, but struggled to produce before dropping down the lineup and even getting healthy scratched.

Finished with eighteen points of fifty five games, twenty seven point pace, massive drop off from the two prior seasons where he averaged at sixty points.

The thing we all know bau Michelli, though, is that he can be really hard to roster at times because his bash is just awful one point eight four per game, six hundred and sixty six hundred and eighty first is where he ranks in terms of the whole league.

That's really difficult if he's not getting those assists, which he wasn't for a while last season.

He's definitely a playmaker, pass first, second, third kind of guy, and with his on I shooting percentage drops, it really hurts him.

And that's what happened last season nine point eight to six point two, which significantly decreases production, even though his expected goals in ipp were actually in line with previous seasons, which gives me tons of optimism.

Made both A there's a prime spot for him in the top six and B.

I think his underlying number suggest that he should be able to slot right in and get back to it.

Sixty is point pace days.

What do you think about that for Mitchelli?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I honestly think it's well within the range of possibilities.

Mitchelli's underlying metrics all look really good.

You don't really see a fall off there.

It really just does seem like the percentages are what fell off here.

So yeah, I think there's a real chance.

I don't think the Leafs go out and acquire Mittias Mitchelli to play him down on the third line and try to have him grind it out either.

I think if you're going out to intentionally acquire Mitthias Mitchelli, you have a plan in mind for him, and he doesn't have to be the guy on the Leafs right He can fit in as that left winger alongside Tavrus an Elander.

Maybe they try him at right wing as the Murner replacement on the top line with Nys and Matthews, and I think either of those could be a potential fit.

The all three zone stuff for Michelli looks unbelievable rush offense, absolutely top end of the league' zone entries.

It's all their shot assists.

He's doing all that, So I do see a natural fit as a distributor alongside I'd either a shooter like Kneelander or a shooter like Matthews.

I think that it makes a lot of sense this acquisition, and he's going to get a solid chance to prove it because the Leafs do need to fill out this top six with Murner out of town.

It was already a sore spot who was going to play that second line left wing with Tarius Kneelander for much of last year, and so I think Mitchelli is going to get every opportunity to be a top six player for the Leafs.

Speaker 3

Now, we're going to give you a pick them of two more of the more depth forwards on this team.

A couple of guys in hockey middle age.

We got Bobby McMahon and Max Domy.

We got the twenty eight year old McMahon, who who had thirty four points to seventy four games last year.

We've got the thirty year old Max Domy who has he had some good moments for those Leaves last year with thirty three points to seventy four games.

Who do you like better of this twosome for scoring purposes?

For fantasy purposes.

Speaker 4

Yeah, for fantasy, I think you go with McMahon.

He was the most common line mate for Tavaris and Lander last year.

He did score twenty goals in seventy four games.

He shoots a fair bit.

He is a guy.

He's not much of a playmaker, but he will drive the net.

He will take the shots at the end of the day, and that's gonna work for fantasy.

Also throws the body a lot more than Max Domi do only had thirty one hits last year and McMahon had one hundred and thirty six and not much of a contest there.

I don't think McMahon is like some breakout waiting to happen.

But if he gets that deployment again, then I think you can expect him to try to approach twenty goals once again.

And so if they're choosing between the two, I would definitely go McMahon.

Speaker 3

Moving on to the blue line, Nate, We're gonna start, of course with Morgan Riley.

His scoring dip down last year, down to half a point per game for the first time since the mid twenty tens.

He's into his thirties now.

He played with a few different partners and I'm not quite sure what happened looking back.

He used to apparently be glued to TJ.

Brody in last year was the first year without that happening, but he dropped down to six in the team on power play, Tom on Ice.

What I read said Mitch Marner was taking the role that Riley would sometimes occupy on of course, that rolls back open up hits and Tom and Ice were both down for Riley.

Surely he's still the centerpiece of this decor for this team, and thirty one is not old for a defenseman.

Can he get back to sixty?

And what's the deal with Morgan Riley?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 4

I don't think sixties in the cards for Riley anymore.

Unfortunately.

I think he has just been a pretty awkward fit with what Craig Berube wants his defenceman to do, and as a result he saws ice time dropped down pretty significantly last year in twenty three twenty four.

He skated twenty three minutes forty four seconds average time on ice last year down to twenty one twenty three and lost the power play.

As you mentioned to Mitch Marner, I do think the most likely sneero is that he does get that power play back this year.

I don't really have another strong option to take that over, but it's worth monitoring how this situation plays out with Berubey.

I think the Leafs are a team that could be in the market for a power play quarterback throughout the course of the season, So Riley could start there and not finish there as he did this past year.

That's definitely a potential possibility.

At even strength, the Leafs really relied on Jake McCabe and Chris tannev to shut down other team's top lines, and that just naturally led to less ice time from Morgan Riley.

So I haven't projected right now for forty five points, and that's with a sixteen and a half power play points the way the numbers came out in my projections.

So some power play time again for sure.

And I think when he's there, he'll definitely be fantasy relevant.

But I'm not convinced that he's gonna be just stuck there all year.

I don't think we get the sixty point upside anymore.

I could see fifty five points in an upside case, but that's probably the ceiling.

Speaker 3

And in terms of fantasy, the other defenseman that comes into view for us frequently was Ali backman Larson.

His years of wandering seem to have finally ended in Toronto.

He is very consistent year to year.

Really, he gets a smattering of bash, thirty points, good number of minutes.

That's the Oel blueprint since those early days that everybody remembers in Arizona when maybe he was doing a little bit more offensively.

But what do you think of Eckman Larson's fit in Toronto, And do you is he going to be the second best D on the team and what are you expecting from him.

Speaker 4

For fantasy purposes?

Yeah, probably most likely to score the second most points amongst defensemen behind Riley, for sure, he does okay, and the other stuff like I haven't projected for one hundred and fourteen shots, one hundred and five hits, eighty two blocks, so you're getting the per game number that is like kind of at a baseline level, right like you're thinking about it.

At least with Oel, he's been really consistent.

I think the team really likes him.

But he also is most likely to play on the third pair to start the season.

They do spread out the minutes pretty evenly at even strength, and he will probably be on the second power play unit.

So I do think that he has some utility, but probably more on the back end of his career, in the back end of his fantasy relevance at this point.

Speaker 2

All right, let's shift over to the goalies now.

The Maple Leafs had the twenty third ranked expected goals against for sixty but conceided the eighth ranked actual goals, which means that they were well above expected and that was true for both of their goalies.

Stolars had thirty one goals save above expected and Joseph Wall had seventeen.

And this was a great season for Stolars.

A lot of people were wondering, how's he going to handle having more work, playing more games.

He did play more games, but just a little bit more than usual, and that was mostly because of injury.

Though he was excellent until he missed a couple months with the knee injury.

Finished second in the lead in terms of goals Stale expected high thirty four games, but the injury in the playoffs was very controversial against Sam Bennett and that really disrupted his game.

So the question is can you stay healthy for forty plus games and we'll see what he we can do.

Let's also touch on Wall, who had a good season leading a team of twenty seven wins and has a really reasonable contract, also had really positive numbers.

He's in the first year of a three year deal paying him three point seven million.

I think overall we can agree that this is the right amount of money to pay goalies, and it's really nice to see them perform of expected.

Those should be good options for your zero G strategy, Nate.

I would assume.

Speaker 4

Yeah, they'll definitely both be in there for sure.

Yeah.

I think Stolars did establish himself a little bit as one a.

You saw him get most of the run in the playoffs before getting injured.

But I think the Leafs do view this as a tandem.

I think they view that as the optimal way to use your goaltenders show at the course of the season, get two guys healthy to the playoffs, and then let the hot guy take over.

I think that's the way that we should anticipate it going this way this season.

I should say I think Stolars will get the opening night's start.

I think he's more likely to get forty five to fifty starts than wall Is.

But I think by and large they're probably gonna do a one game on one game off scenario to open the year and then see how it plays out from there.

Goalies, they can change a lot year to year.

Things can happen.

It wouldn't be surprising to see one start to outshine the other and to get a bit more run in the net.

I don't think anybody would be too surprised by that.

But definitely Stolars has the edge heading into the season.

Speaker 3

All right, this has been a tour around the Toronto Maple Leaves.

I imagine everybody within the sound of my voice knows how to listen to your Golden Tones on a regular basis, Nate.

But if not, remind them how to find your stuff.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Apple's and Gino's Fantasy Hockey Podcastever you get your podcasts run on YouTube.

If you want to look at my face, maybe you're probably coming to look at Blake's face and not mine, but either way, you can come see us on YouTube.

We just released our Fantasy Hockey Guide this week, first week of September here as we're recording, so that's definitely out there if you're playing redraft this year.

We got a ton of great information in there.

I had gotten thirty two hundred word article on how to outdraft your smartest opponent in your league, so you can check that out as well.

Speaker 3

Wow, five out of five would recommend Nate's content.

I won't speak to the faces.

I have no opinion on the faces, but Nate's content is top of the line.

Thank you so much for coming on, Nate.

This has been a great talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Speaker 4

My pleasure.

Thanks guys.

Speaker 3

K Wilson that's good fire fat.

Speaker 2

Oh my goodness, long Ques.

Speaker 3

Right now, it's your weekly goalie Talk with Kat Silverman, Kat's Instincts.

Speaker 2

And once again for Kat's Instincts.

With Kat Silverman and Ben bullmag we're talking Toronto made Beliefs goalies and they have two, I would say, really solid goalies.

We're gonna start with Archer Aktiamof, the twenty two year old sixty two hundred and seventy pounds drafted one hundred and sixth overall back in twenty twenty.

This was his first season in North America playing for the Marleys, and his numbers were pretty good looking at the hockey prospecting for him, it's been a pretty steady upward trend, culminating at about seventy percent chance of being an NHLer, which is pretty I mean, the list of comc are all pretty much nhlor slash Hall of Bamers.

He looks quite a bit like Togarask in this model, not necessarily stylistically, but Kay, what are your instincts tell us about aktiam Off.

Speaker 5

I am so excited that this is the actiamisans here.

I'm ready to see him get his shot.

I remember during his draft year, he was technically one of the highest performing of the twenty twenty draft eligibles.

That was obviously a really weird year for draft eligibles because there were guys who played absolutely no games, and he was doing a really good job in the MHL at that point.

He did a pretty solid job after that of maintaining elite numbers minus his one KHL game in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two wasn't his best performance.

I think that can be overlooked at this point, just looking at his numbers across the board.

I would love to see what he can do in an NHL game, just because I think that Toronto's goaltending over the last year or two here has been good, but they've been missing that not the player that fans can get rabid over, because as always I cautioned Toronto fans to be nice to their goaltenders and to calm down.

Speaker 6

But I do think that.

Speaker 5

He could be their next really fun hype guy, especially because they have finally moved on from the Matt Murray experiment, so this year they have a really nice, really nice opportunity to flesh out their depth chart moving forward.

Speaker 6

I would argue that they were in.

Speaker 5

I don't want to say that they were in true flux after James Rymer and Jonathan Bernier, but they were.

We didn't see consistent confident goaltending depth chart status for anyone after that point.

I think we are there with Joseph Wall.

Speaker 6

He is their brick wall.

Speaker 5

Anthony Stolars has been really fun to watch take the reins as a really steady, reassuring presence as a backup.

But he is not a long term solution for them because I believe, if I remember correctly, he is now on the wrong side of thirty by a couple years because he is thirty one, so he will be thirty two this year.

That is not something that looking at the next three to five years, they want to keep him forever.

I think it's time to let actm off play a couple games at the NHL level.

Speaker 6

I'm ready for it, Toronto's ready for it.

Speaker 5

I need the fans to let him have a couple bad games, let him shake it off, and I think he'll be great.

And I would love to see a wool Actamo of tandem, and I think that is what I asked for last year, and they have come closer to giving it to me than they have any tandem I have requested over the last five or six years.

So I think they've finally learned their lesson.

Speaker 6

Which is nice.

Speaker 2

Indeed, I'm excited to see him in the NHL.

And we'll talk about the next guy too, who I think also has some pretty good upside at Dennis Hill to be twenty three years old, six foot seven, two hundred and twenty three pounds, drafted back in twenty twenty two, one hundred and twenty second overall.

This was his second HL season.

He played fewer games in last season, but part of that was because of the splitting of the net with Doctamoff than the aforementioned Matt Murray, who is no longer with the aple Leafs.

He's now with the Crack in the Hill Debest as he's oftener referred to, did play the most games of that trio and had better numbers than Actiamoff.

Anyways, Matt Murray did have the best numbers of the three, possibly slightly unsurprising looking at the hockey prospecting for Hill to be, he's trended up to forty eight percent chance of being in NHL.

Er so he's got some pretty good comps.

One of them, funny is Anthony Stolars.

So there you go.

Could be a starter like his teammate.

Yeah, what are you easting to tell us about hi'll Be?

Speaker 5

I think he's a really fun studying contrast with actem listed.

Akdamov is listed at six' one one sixty eight plays a very, small, aggressive dominant.

Game Dennis hildeby is six foot, seven two hundred and twenty three.

POUNDS i think the two of them need to take all of their roster photos standing side by.

Side they shouldn't be allowed to take them.

Alone i'm interested to see where he'll To be fits into their, lineup just BECAUSE i based on WHAT i like From Joseph wole's game and knowing How toronto has tended to operate in.

Speaker 6

The past with their.

Speaker 5

Defense they tend to like having two goaltenders who play fairly complimentary styles to one.

ANOTHER i would like to See aktamov And wol as their main tandem moving.

Forward hill To be plays a little bit of a slower game than the two of, them BUT i think he'll To be And stolars are comparable.

Players it is fun that occasionally we have entire days where we talk about prospect and we look at the comparables and every comparable as a player who is five foot ten next one who is six foot, seven and they play totally different.

Styles AND i feel like most of the ones that we have been looking at, recently it's like they've cloned each.

Other and because hill To be And stolars are both big boys who play WHAT i would call quote unquote big boy, hockey hill To be is not super.

Aggressive he doesn't like to get too fast when he's skating.

Around he just the whole disposition plays a little bit of a more conservative.

Speaker 6

GAME i think he looks.

Speaker 5

GOOD i notice that he is unsigned as of right now By.

Toronto obviously that is something that is in their.

Control BUT i hope that is something That toronto does something about fairly, quickly because they're a team that really likes to wait until the eleventh hour to sign their goaltenders who are pending RFAs and really get into the nitty gritty.

Speaker 6

Of negotiations with.

Speaker 5

THEM i think if they want hill To be to stick around long term as potentially the third member of a rotating.

CAST i know that wool has had some injury issues in the, past SO i would love to see them have that THIRD nhl capable goaltender three or four years down the.

Line so Both hill to be an acdam.

OF i think they should just pay him what he.

Wants BUT i don't.

KNOW i think it is a breath of fresh air that we are able to look at What hill to be an actam of can do within their depth chart without having to wonder what The Matt murray situation.

IS i thought that dragged on probably two years too, long and it did create a weird net split situation at THE hl level For actamo Un hill To be last.

Speaker 6

YEAR i don't.

Speaker 5

KNOW i think it'll be refreshing this year to see what they're able to do.

TOGETHER i would like to see when they need to call someone up them to alternate back and, forth give both guys a chance to play SOME nhl.

Speaker 6

Games and then move forward from.

Speaker 5

There but IT'S i don't Want toronto fans to get mad at me If i'm, Wrong but it seems like it is a good time to be a fan Of Toronto Maple leafs skull, tending AND i Hope i'm.

Speaker 2

Right that is not a statement that should make anyone.

Speaker 6

MAD i HOPE i am right about.

Speaker 5

IT i think it would only make them mad If i'm, wrong WHICH i HOPE i am, not.

Speaker 2

And kreig If i'm wrong reading between the, lines AND i believe you said this in the, past that you like up a little bit more Than he'll to be.

Speaker 6

Just a little.

Speaker 2

Bit, yeah, yeah that's WHAT i, thought perfect.

Speaker 6

Though THAT i was going to.

Say it is nice though that they have both in their.

System that, is.

Speaker 5

Even THOUGH i like one a little more than the, other there is not a huge gap in WHAT i would evaluate both of them as.

Speaker 2

It seems like a great place for them to be.

In thanks so, Much, kavi give me us your instincts on The Toronto Make Believe, Goals.

Speaker 3

Victor.

Nuno we are on the verge of the season and many of us are doing drafts and for that there is a special offer we have for some of our.

Listeners what is?

Speaker 2

It that's?

Right Jesse Dabber hockey gave us a couple of guides earlier in the, summer and they have generously decided to give us several more free copies of their Amazing Fantasy hockey.

Guide it is The.

Bible it's.

Amazing has so many, projections breakdowns by, team schedule, analysis amazing content in.

THERE i use it as my bible to reference everything what's going.

On it's constantly updated based on different news that's.

Happening how can you get?

Yours all you have to do is leave us a five star review that's new as of when you heard this message On Apple podcasts or the podcast app of your.

Choice send me a screenshot to Me victor via EMAIL, dm On, Discoord, twitter or however you want to get it to.

Me make sure you can actually see your name and the review in the screenshots SO i can verify who it is and that was, you and then we'll select the winners from everyone who.

Enters thanks so much and happy.

Speaker 3

Drafting we'll be back right after.

This Dig it's the dynasty Dig arountoly.

Believes, Addition, victor this is the number thirty system in.

Hockey they burn him In, churnham they bring him up and they're no.

Brainer he was the hot talk of a couple of years ago because first of, all he hated him and then we loved.

Him who is it.

Speaker 2

That would Be Eastern.

Colwen, yeah definitely a little surprising when he went twenty eighth overall in the twenty twenty three, draft and then after HIS d plus one, season everyone came around and, said, yeah actually it's pretty.

Good five to eleven and eighty five.

Pounds this, season his point production took a step back from ninety six points and fifty four games to sixty nine points in forty six, games but he did add another thirty nine points and seventeen playoff games en route to The Memorial cup with The London.

Knights he'll be transitioning to professional ranks this year and most likely he will be playing for The Toronto, marleys but he will try to make The leafs roster out of, camp AND i think that there's a reasonable chance that he at least gets the nine game.

Trial probably not more than, that but you never.

Know his tracking data For Mitch brown looks pretty awesome based on last season ninety seven rank.

Overall his offense and transition both at ninety five to ninety six percent just look.

Elite his defense ranks only sixty six, percentile so not quite so.

Good definitely some work.

There and that's the concern THAT i would have for, him is that he's an offensive player whose offense is good but is it going to fully translate and if it, doesn't what's HIS b?

Game because his defensive game right now isn't all that.

Great but he is looking pretty good so.

Far looking at his fenny Highest Fantasy Hockey Life player, card there's a lot of green on this.

Card most of the things look, excellent including his, bash which is mostly driven by his, shots but he actually hits a decent amount fiftieth percentile for an eighty two percent, bash and overall a lot of his play driving numbers are really.

Good one thing that isn't is his puck battles one and this is definitely a concern being that he's a little bit of a smaller player at five eleven point eighty.

Five is he going to be able to compete hard enough and win loose?

PUCKS i don't.

Know based on HIS ohl, time there's some concerns, there but his transition game looks really.

Good let's hear a little bit more About Easton cowan though from OUR fhl, Scout jesse.

Speaker 3

And Easton's cowen is the subject Of chris Our scout's.

Discussion cowen is a strong straight ahead skater despite bent over skating, stride but lacks elite top end, gear his edgeworking agilityes top, notch allowing him to defintely maneuver through.

Traffic his high motor is always on display and he consistently plays with, pace passing and.

Handling cowen's a tremendous playmaker and puck, distributor flashing, skills plays with his slick stick and touches to create opportunities for.

Teammates as a, result he was often seen manning the point On London knight's power.

PLAY a confident puck handler is unafraid to dangle in and out of, traffic but he will have to learn better puck management skills at the next, level as he will often try to do too much instead of opting for the simple.

Play callen boasts a strong risk shot with quick, release but will need to improve on shot, selection minimizing shots from low danger areas his HOCKEY, iq he consistently displays elite on ice awareness in all zones, patients holding onto the puck to create lanes for his.

Teammates his low panic threshold is always on.

Display chris is For checking's excellent leveraging this above average motor and ice awareness to pressure the.

Opposition While collen's not a true, banger he both initiates and plays well off of contact defense trusted defender who uses his smarts and stick to break up.

Plays also emerged as a dangerous penalty killer and is routinely counted on to help close out games when holding the.

Lead so the best asset versatility skill set HOCKEY iq it blends into a well routed game where he's been counted on in all.

Situations but the biggest concern is the undersize nature Of Eastern, cowen especially since he's not an a lead.

Skater true to his cowboy, Nickname cowen can be reckless and will need to relieve himself of his junior habits to gain the trust of coaches at subsequent.

Levels the top tier outcome here probably second line offensive, output but energy versatility too in or foot game to go with.

That that's because he's a toolsy player with GREAT iq drive to succeed benefit from an extended stay in THE ahl to build strength and adapt to the pro.

Game the median outcome here a high end third liner forty point upside special team merchant who will inject energy into the Lineup cowen's not blessed with size or blazing.

Speed failure to mature his game and eliminate bad habits will minimize his opportunities and eventual.

Upside stylistic Comparable Brad, marshahn Fearless swiss army knife type player that can move up and down the lineup and be counted on in all.

Situations cowen thrives on the big, moments never backs, down leaves it all on the.

Ice he may never be an elite offensive, weapon but his versatility will be.

Impactful in THE nhl, Ranking Mason black Puts Eastern cowen up Against Jett luchenko of The Philadelphia, flyers And Eastern cowen wins that one big sixty to forty percent.

Victor what do you?

Speaker 2

Think, yeah this is.

TOUGH i think that both of these guys play for teams of fan bases that are rabbid and.

Passionate so typically my answer might involve take the maple leaf and then sell them to your maple leaf fan in your, league which could also work for Your flyer fan.

Here BECAUSE i do think these guys are, SIMILAR i think That cowen probably has a little bit more offense And luchenko has a little bit better all around slash defense.

Game luchenko has a little bit better staying power in THE, nhl But cowen is probably going to be here you're more excited about in fantasy if he can actually translate to the professional, ranks Which i'm not sure.

About SO i probably would Take cowen UNLESS i was in a league that just valued security and having guys play even if they're not that, productive THEN i might Take.

Luchenko looking at the hockey prospective between these, Two luchenko has a thirty percent chance of being a star And cowen just eleven percent this, season so much.

Better based on HIS ohl, numbers AND i mentioned a little bit about His Fantasy Hockey life player, card there's similar positivity, here a little less bash in terms of the shots are actually really low For, luchenko but the hits are, better so that's.

Interesting it averages out to be a little worse Than, cowen but a lot of his transition numbers and play driving are pretty.

Good his puck battles won eighty eightieth PERCENT, tile so that's a bit.

Better looking at some other comps For, cowen not a whole lot of exciting names.

Here Patrick bergland is one who was similar average.

Producer that's probably what we're going to expect From.

Cowen the J fresh model just has n't at three percent chance of being a, star thirty four percent chance of being AN nhl aer.

Speaker 3

And victor who is your need to know?

Speaker 2

Prospect the need to know Is Noah chadwick twenty, twenty three hundred and eighty fifth, overall sixty, four two hundred and seven pound defenseman put up his second consecutive season over fifty, points which was really.

Great that was with The Lethbridge hurricanes OF whl and finished with fifty three points in sixty six games fourteen points in sixteen playoff.

Games all that was pretty great bow on HIS whl.

Career he'll be playing professionally next.

Season looking at HIS fhl or, sorry his tracking data From Mitch brown ninety first percent for, offense ninety eighth for, transition eighty fifth per.

Defense the thing that really isn't great has expected goals and shots are really, low but the rest of his numbers are all pretty.

Stellar looking at His Fantasy Hockey life player, card his bash is pretty decent sixty seven percentile not.

Great his blocks are actually pretty low for a.

Defenseman his hits are, average his shots are a little bit above.

Average let's hear a little bit more about noahchadback from our fragil, Scout JESSE.

Speaker 3

Afhl Scout chris says this About Noah.

Chadwick he's an adequate, skater good lateral mobility for his.

Size, however he's going to need to continue first to increase first step quickness as he moves up the professional.

Ranks an underrated distributor mutinely makes smart plays with the, puck whether he's evading a four, checker moving the puck up eyes from manning the point on the top power, Play chadwick demonstrates confidence and quickly identifying outlets and executing on those.

Plays, Shooting chadwick's a willing shooter with a hard slap shot and, heavy accurate.

Rister he displays good awareness and shot, selection including routinely throwing pucks at the net in traffic to generate chances THE.

Iq chadwick uses his above average hockey sense to poise to evade four checkers and move the puck out of the defensive zone to start the.

Rush he regularly makes sound decisions playing with confidence at both ends of the ice and is counted on in all situations for.

Checking he demonstrates good reads in the offensive zone and will pinch from the blue line when the opportunity presents.

Itself defense a solid defender with good positioning in the defensive, zone he uses his length effectively to break up plays through well timed poke.

Checks chadwick is not overtly, physical, however he regularly uses his size to box out opponents in front of the net and will throw the body along the boards to separate the opposition from the.

Puck so the best, Asset chadwick doesn't try to play outside of his.

Abilities he leverages his skill set effectively without trying to do too, much displaying a maturity within his.

Game he has a good, base but will continue to improve all facets of his.

Game in, particular he's going to need to improve initiating physicality and utilizing his large frame more effectively at the next, level something he will be expected to do as a player of his size in a bottom pairing.

Role the top tier outcome here middle pairing all situation defender size and physicality chips in twenty to thirty.

Points that's because he has a solid all around skill, set size and excellent decision, making but the median outcome seventh Defenceman ahl call up as a sixth round.

Pick the competition stiff.

Man the odds are stacked against him despite his solid progression to.

Date but if you want to stylist the comparable for what he could, Be jake, McCabe solid all around defender with, size reach and puck moving.

Acumen the archetype of a defender of the leafs Now.

Covet chadwick will compete for a spot on The marleys this fall and the least may have a bottom pairing option in two to three years if he continues on his development.

Trajectory final.

Thoughts chadwick was the captain of The Letharge hurricanes this past season and third on The.

Hurricanes was scoring fifty three, points put up close to a point per game in the playoffs seven goals in fourteen points in sixteen games which closed out HIS whl, career And Mason black THE nhl ranking puts up the Poll Noah chadwick Versus jonah Of vyas signing vas signen Oh.

Cheapers nobody's allowed to Pick finns from now one Victor chadwick wins, thankfully SO i don't have to say the other guy's name a second.

Time sixty eight to thirty two.

Percent what do.

Speaker 2

You think Univison?

IN i think is how you say.

IT i am going to take Vison, in so it's good THAT i figured out how to say.

It BUT i do think that both these, guys, yeah their depth guys probably not super exciting in terms of fantasy.

Option this is if you're in a really deep, league like a thirty two team, league you might be deciding between these.

Guys otherwise it's probably not even a.

Consideration but looking at the transition data and the play, driving vison was much better Than, Chadwick SO i think just FOR nhl probability and his ability to translate that to THE, Nhl i'm probably going to go Vison.

IN i should.

Mention Vison in was drafted twenty twenty, four six round hundred and seventy fifth.

Overall he's a six to zero right handed d and he was at The university Of Western.

Michigan this year after some W ushl, TIME Weshn, michigan in case you hadn't, heard won THE Ncaa championship and he was a huge reason for.

That he was everything for.

Them he scored twenty six points in forty two.

Games but just, big steadying, presence shut down d all situations kind of.

Guy that's what you're getting in Vison.

In AND i do think that the priffs are probably a little bit better For, chadwick BUT i think Vison in is going to be a better all around.

Defenseman so depends on what you want their security versus maybe some BAD i Think jake McKay probably a good.

Comparable you can think about.

That is that someone who you really want your, league or is he someone who you, stream or is he someone who's really valuable versus someone who may not have as many periffs but plays more minutes and has a little bit better chance to have an impact on your fantasy.

Team so that's why we take looking at the hockey prospect between the, two that's actually almost.

Identical three percent chance of being a, star thirty two percent chance of being AN.

NHLer they look pretty.

Similar some other comps For chadwick in the hockey prospecting, model someone Like Jason demers might be a reasonable.

Comp he was never all that exciting in, fantasy but definitely played some minutes and had some streaming impact here there in deeper.

Leagues he played in THE, Nhl so you can say that looking at The jfresh card For Noah, chadwick one percent chance of being a, star forty one percent chance of being A NHLer Jesse.

Speaker 3

And who's the need to know, Prospect?

Victor it needs to keep your eye on.

Prospect beg your pardon to keep your eye on, Prospect.

Victor sure.

Speaker 2

To keep your eye on Is William villeneuve twenty one hundred and twenty second overall pick sixty, two one hundred and eighty seven.

Pounds he's a right HANDED d and he was.

Playing he's played the last several seasons in THE ahl With.

Toronto marley's had back to back twenty five points in fifty four games and this season forty points in fifty five.

Games and looking at His Fantasy Hockey life player, guard there's some incomplete data, here but he didn't really hit block that.

Much his shots are decent and he did have a lot of assists compared to the rest of the.

League some of his play driving numbers are pretty, good like His, fenwick and then we're missing data on some of the.

Rest he's definitely a little bit.

Older he's twenty three Now thursdays in THE, ahl close to being the getting to THE, nhl but also might just be one of those tweener.

Guys so let's hear FROM ourfhl scout what he thinks and.

Speaker 3

OR fhl Scout chris says this skating has improved since he was, drafted but he were means a slightly below average skater with a choppy.

Stride Villano wave is a below average handler and, distributor opting for short passes or rifling the puck up the boards in lieu of heading up the.

Rush struggles to make plays under.

Pressure Villano wave raised his shot volume significantly this past.

Season, however both his wrist shot and slapper are both average at.

Best he's a meat and potatoes guy who lacks the imagination and vision of AN nhl defenders sometimes often defers the teammates and relies on the short pass game to advance the puck up the.

Ice VILLAN.

A wave is diligent in the defensive, zone boxing out opposing forwards in front of the.

Net he leverages his stick checks, effectively but overalls an average.

Defender with room to.

Improve Villano wave works hard on the defensive, zone engages, physically won't back down in puck, battles lacks the raw tools AND iq to probably be an EVERYDAY nhl player at this stage of his, development more of a seventh DEFENDER ahl, tweeer could be an injury.

Replacement that's the top tier outcome That chris is, seen maybe more likely AN ahl, journeyman and that's because his tools In HOCKEY iq will limit his ability to make the jump to THE nhl unless there's a significant change in the developmental.

Curve and despite the lack of depth and the leaf, SYSTEM i don't See villain A.

Wave that, Is chris doesn't See Villain away being anything more than a depth option for.

Them Mason, black THE nhl Rank, king puts it to the, Test Villain away Versus Otto salin of THE La kings And villain A.

Wave when's this one going?

Away seventy two to twenty eight, Percent, victor this is the.

Test Is villain A wave the man in this?

Speaker 2

COMPARISON i probably would Take villeneuve.

HERE i think that he probably has a little bit more to.

Offer he is a little bit MORE nhl ready As oto selling just had a FEW hl.

Games on the other, Hand selen has a little bit more or, runway as he's a little bit.

Younger, actually now THAT i think about, It i'm gonna Take selene because he's earlier in the.

Funnel Ville neuve is farther down the funnel and he's had three DECENT hl, seasons But i'm not SURE i see him jumping up to be anything more than a depth.

Defenseman so there's more uncertainty With, selene BUT i think THAT i would rather have that as potential breakout or hidden offense that we didn't know he.

Had he also just came over From liga and so that is interesting to see how he can.

Do he had a pretty decent last season In liga this past, year twenty points in fifty six, games so maybe he can translate some of that to THE.

Ahl their hockey prospecting between the two looks almost.

Identical they graduated the model at three percent chance of being a, star both this the move a couple of years ago And selene this.

Year some of his Numbers sellen for THE fhl player card also don't look great in terms of his transition and play, driving but some of those were missing from Ville, neuves so we don't really know how to compare the.

Two if you're looking for some other comparisons for Ville, Neuve Thomas hickey is maybe someone that fits the, bill not someone that's super exciting and fantasy and looking at the j, freshcard Ville neuve three percent chance of being a, star thirty six percent chance of being AN nhl.

Er that's pretty similar to The Hockey prospect team, number which is.

Interesting that's all we have for The Toronto Maple leafs.

Dig if you're patreon you can listen to my top Ten prospects recap her team On.

Patreon and if you're just doing scotting with a shoot me A dm On, Twitter discord or email Us.

Speaker 3

Bill new be right back to cool enough the.

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