
·E430
Fantasy Hockey Life Ep. 430 Tampa Bay Lightning with Erik Erlendsson
Episode Transcript
Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks.
Speaker 2Here sits.
Speaker 3Your source of information and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league.
Block off, hot a step hit on, stay lock.
Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno.
Speaker 4Fantasy Hockey Live once again.
Jesse Severe, Victor Nuno.
I am of fan Tracks.
I guess I should say, Victor Nunio, the Fantasy hockey doctor of Dabber Hockey.
How you doing today, Victor?
Speaker 3I am doing awesome.
Jesse, how are you doing, my friend?
Speaker 4I'm doing good.
Man, I'm doing good.
I'm I'm ready.
Is this is this our last team preview?
I forget the release schedule?
I think is the last one to record?
Speaker 3Anyway, Yeah, we did it.
We finally got to the end.
It's when we started.
We started prepping this way back in April, and I think we recorded our first one at the end of April.
So it's been a long road.
It's fun, but also yeah, it's a bit of a grind, so it feels like an accomplishment to do all thirty two.
Speaker 4It is an accomplishment, man, and this is my annual.
Let's give Victor a slow clap for doing this, getting all thirty two guests together, because that is Yeoman's work.
That is outstanding stuff.
Man.
I always appreciate you for that.
But I think everybody should appreciate Victory.
I think we should all appreciate Victor a little bit.
Why don't everybody go into the Fantasy Hockey Life discord, give Victor a little pat on the back, give him a thumbs up, just anywhere, just post memes of Victor.
I don't know what you're gonna do.
Just be creative because it's an appreciation of Victor time.
And you can get into that Fantasy Hockey Life disc to do that or to talk about your drafts.
Speaker 1So maybe that.
Speaker 4Would be a relevant topic since it's the height of draft season right now.
And to do that, you just give us an email.
Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com.
There's stuff popping up in there every day, a few hundred people involved, and it's free, did I mention free, And it's a place to talk about all recruit people.
There's still time to do a draft.
Why not get in there and say, hey, people, you want to set up a leak, want to get together, set up a dynasty league.
There's still time for all that, But Victor, that's not the only thing that people can do at this time of year.
What else might they be tempted by?
Speaker 3They might be attempted by all the bonus content that's there.
There's a bunch of player cards on the website for ultralifers.
That's one of the best things.
You can look at all the preperle contribution of each player.
You can look, well, how good they are at play, driving, fighting, puck battles, things like that, things that are hard to see in all these leagues for all these players.
You can also look at my tiers and ranks for all the prospects under a hundred games played.
And then there's other cool things too, like being part of the Tidy the Tier Dynasty.
You can get access to patron casts and bonus content, so check all that out over at patreon dot com slash Fantasy Hockey Life.
Speaker 4Yes, sir, we'll be right back after this to talk Tampa Bay Lightning.
Welcome back to the show.
Eric erlandson of Lightning Ininsider dot com, our man on the beat of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Speaker 2How you doing today, Eric, I'm good.
Speaker 1It's the fact that we're talking means that hockey season is right around the corner, and it's always an exciting time of year for me.
This is gonna be year twenty five, twenty six.
It's so much I've lost count on what I'm doing, but this is always what the beginning part of September means to me, at least for the last number of years.
Speaker 4That's outstanding.
Yeah, that's a long time to be covering an NHL team, man, kudos on that.
Speaker 2Yeah, thanks for the reminder that I'm old.
Speaker 4Hey, you, me and everybody at this point.
But if those of our listeners are old and have been watching the Lightning for a long time, if you're really old, you probably remember some hard times.
But the Lightnings have bad more good than bad, to be honest.
For the eighth straight year and the eleventh time in twelve, the Lightning made the playoffs.
A lot of franchises would love to have just that.
Unfortunately, for the third straight year after their Stanley Cup level success, they did not pass the first round last year, and for the second straight year they never made it outside of Florida in the playoffs because, unfortunately, their cross state rivals suddenly are real good.
Actually, their goal differential from last year suggests they might have been unlucky in some ways.
During the regular season, they were first in goals for and fourth best in goals against.
Their penalty kill allowed the least goals the smallest number goals against the PDO gods.
Of course you say that, but the PDO gods could be angry at the Lightning since they had second in shooting percentage and best in our second in save percentage.
Those things sometimes don't last.
We're gonna be talking about it somewhat aging team today.
The salary cap, the winner's curse of being so good for so long has come hard for the Bolts.
What the Lightning watchers take from last year and is the window still open for this team?
Speaker 1I think people who watched the Lightning from a fan perspective, their takeaway is frustration.
Because you just touted all those regular season numbers.
You thought, Okay, they're back, right, They're gonna be a team to contend with.
Unfortunately, they ran into the Florida Panthers once again, and Matthew Kachuck comes back, and the salary cap situation, which the league is apparently going to fix heading into this start of this season.
In terms of a playoff salary cap.
The air a ec Blat injury allowed them to go out and get Seth Jones, so they were a much stronger team than even during the regular season the Panthers were, and the Lightning just ran into a as we saw a team that just forced their way through the Eastern Conference once again and ended up being the Stanley Cup champions.
The way the playoff format is set up, sometimes you're gonna get this situation where you have a pretty strong division like the Atlantic Kids.
But you see all those numbers and highest scoring team in the league, and even without Steven Stamkos there, the power play was still efficient in terms of the number of goals they scored and the percentage that they had.
But you run into the Panthers and you hit a wall.
I guess in a ways and a lot of ways that's true.
You go back to the aironec blad hit on Brandon Hegel in Game three and the hit from Matthew could shock on Jay Gensel at the end of Game three.
They literally ran into a brick wall in some ways facing the Panthers in that series.
But as the window closed, I don't think so.
You mentioned an aging team, and certainly Kuchirofv is now into his early thirties and Vasilewski is into his early thirties.
Brandon Hagel's what twenty five years old, and Anthony Cerelli is still only twenty seven years old.
They still have some players that are key contributors on this team that are still in their prime.
Although the big part of their core is the Koutrovs, the Headmans, the McDonald's, the Vasilewski's.
Even Brighton point has reached the age of thirty now at this point in his career, I think that there is still optimism.
There's certainly a lot of internal optimism.
And I think if you look at the offseason moves or lack of moves that the Lightning did, they believe in this team and they believe that they can be a contender.
It's just on the NHL sometimes it just doesn't go your way.
There's so much parody in the league that, Okay, they have been knocked out in the first round for three straight years.
Speaker 2There's no denying that.
That's a fact.
You can't get away from it.
Speaker 1But the funny thing is in twenty twenty two, when they beat the Maple Leafs in the first round, the Leafs were the better team.
The Lighting just found a way to win it in seven games.
And the next year against the Leafs, you look at the stats, the Lighting were the better team, but they lost four of those games in overtime and get knocked down in the first round.
That's just how close it can be sometimes.
And I think with the Lightning have proven, even going back to twenty nineteen when they were swept by Columbus, they don't react emotionally to situations.
They react more analytically and take a step back and look at things and take that kind of a perspective.
But I think that's what's helped guide them to continue to be one of the top teams in the league still despite the fact that they have lost in the first round three consecutive years.
Speaker 4And I didn't somehow this didn't register with me.
Have Florida and Tampa played in the first round for the last five years, that's freaking crazy.
Lightning won a couple of those before Florida started.
Anyway.
Speaker 2Two, it was the second round though, so it was the second twenty.
Speaker 4Yeah, second round.
Yeah, he may be aging a little bit, but it's pretty hard to say that Niakuda Kucharov is anything but at the peak of his powers.
He missed four games last year and still won his second straight art ross his third total.
How do you miss four games that still do that?
This future Hall of Famer just put it in black ink topped the power play count in the league with forty three, passing Nathan McKinnon by five power play point count.
I should say there are not signs of decline.
I could see he has the kind of game that makes it difficult even to ask a very intelligent question of you, Eric, except to say, could he do another one hundred and twenty points this year?
Is he?
Is there any sign that there's the client coming for.
Speaker 1This guy, No, not anytime soon.
Just the way that he works at his craft.
And the thing that I love about watching in Nikita Kutcherrov play is you have to watch Nikita kutcher ofv play because he's so subtle in his brilliance and how he can see the game and some of the plays that he makes and pulls off.
And I've made this sort of comparison one hundred times.
Guys like McDavid and McKinnon jump off the ice at you right, because their speed, their acceleration, the stuff that they can do at a high pace of play.
Speaker 2Nikita Kutrov is the opposite.
Speaker 1He slows the game down, specifically in his mind, to the point where you have to go back and watch something on re play to understand what it was you just saw.
That's just how subtle his brilliance is.
But he works at it.
When he talked to us in the media at the end of last season, because his quote unquote camp koucher Off has become quite strong down in this area, to the point where he's back on the ice probably maybe a week and a half two weeks later, if not a week after.
Speaker 2The end of the season, working on stuff.
Speaker 1Watch the guy pull pucks off of his backhand off the wall.
Nobody does it better than Nikidita Kutrov.
That's how he can make such great subtle plays.
But it's something he works at.
He will work out in a summer.
He will take one hundred, one hundred and fifty pucks a day rimming off the wall off his backhand on the right side, especially on the power play, to make those kind of plays.
When you have that sort of maniacal dedication to improving and getting better every day, even where he's at in his career.
No, I don't see Nikita Kutrov slowing down, especially when you got a guy like Jay gensel Now on your line.
For the most part, he's such a smart player.
Knows where to get, how to get there, how to be in the right position.
He figured that out pretty quick, even going back to the preseason to be able to play with Nikita Kutrov and bradon point to certainly figure that out.
And you look at the offensive talent on this team.
As long as Nikita Kutrov has playmakers and finishers to set up, they're going to finish plays that he makes because they're just accustomed to playing with him.
Speaker 3Yeah, and the next guy we're going to talk about, Brandon Hegel.
He had a breakout season, putting up thirty five goals ninety points.
He also had career highs and shots, blocks and time on ice.
His bash is pretty good, block shots and hits four point two to one, ranking him one hundred and sixty fifth, which is really good for someone getting ninety points.
And since arriving in Tampa, he's increased his scoring by first ten points and then now fifteen point pace.
So Eric, do you think the twenty six sherild has another gear?
Can he turn ninety into one hundred and continue to improve or is this about where he's going to be or possibly even regress.
Speaker 1I don't know about regress.
I think one hundred might be pushing it a little bit because he's not a highly offensive player.
In a couple of years that he's been here, we have seen his passing ability come through, like he's turned himself into a pretty good playmaker.
We've seen some of the passes he makes, and you don't think of Brandon Hagel as that type of player, but he's.
Speaker 2Worked at it.
Speaker 1And it's probably a little Tikida Kutrov rubbing off on a lot of guys that come through this locker room and the ways that they can pass and understand that the game can be a little bit different in how you view it.
Speaker 2But you look at those numbers.
Speaker 1Had I think he had to have led the league in empty net goals, right, I don't know that number off the top of my head, but I think it was seven or eight of those goals were empty netters.
The fact that all thirty five goals were scored either shorthanded or even strength.
He did not have one power play goal.
He could certainly be more productive on the power play because he does see some decent power play time.
He split his time between the first and the second unit throughout last season as they tried to find somebody to take over that left circle spot that Steven Stamko's vacated so he could up his power play production.
Him and Anthony Cirelli was certainly a major threat shorthanded.
It felt like every time those two were on the ice together they created an opportunity shorthanded that aspect, you expect to still be there because of the chemistry those two guys have.
But thirty five goals I think is probably about the ceiling from Brandon Hagel.
Speaker 2I could be wrong.
Speaker 1I'm not a really good projection guy, but just based on the way that he plays and knowing that he's on the ice for all those empty nets.
Now, look, there's a reason you're on the ice at the end of games, protecting leads, right, so you get those opportunities.
And certainly talked about Alex Ovechkin in that way a lot throughout his career, but I think hegel with what we've seen and the improvements that you mentioned point wise, I think the improvements have been in his game as well.
And there's so much to love about Brandon Hegel's game, and he's one of those younger players that are part of a core now that are going to continue to get better.
I just don't know if reaching one hundred point mark is something that's necessarily going to be in his repertoire.
Speaker 4Still, man that Brandon Hagel.
I'm old enough to remember when they traded the Blackhawks for Hagel and everybody thought they were crazy.
Are you really just throwing in all your chips on this guy just because he had a good half season.
I guess they know what they're doing down there, braidon Point.
They also knew what they were doing when they took bradon Point in what the third round a couple or many years back now, and his elite career continues a pace.
For the third straight year, he was over a point per game, So I want to be picky.
It was a slight slip from prior to two years in terms of point pace, but still elite.
Ordinarily, one would call out regression for a player who led the NHL in shooting percentage at twenty two point two percent.
However, on Hockey Reference, his career eighteen point eight shooting percent also leads all active in the NHL.
So what are you gonna do?
Point combined Bing and Selki votes last year, which is always really impressive to me how you could do both and point is locked in with Kutcherov, and so you mentioned Jake Gnzel, who will get to in a minute.
Is this gonna stay a line a team like this or are they ever gonna want to break up that scoring and his point gonna have another similar or even back to the two prior years level season in the upcoming year.
Speaker 1There's no reason to think he won't continue this because, as we've talked about with Nikita Kuchrov as Nikita, as long as Nikita Kutrov continues to be the playmaker that he will be and that it's gonna land him in the Hall of Fame one day, Braiden Point is gonna be productive, whether it's the power play, whether it's five on five.
We talked about Kucherov being a subtle brilliance.
Braidon Point is a silent goal scorer like you think of fifty goal scorers in recent years.
There's probably not a lot of people are gonna come up with Braiden Point's name, but he hit that mark a couple years ago because he's got his release is so quick, and certainly he made a living in that bumper spot on the power play, especially a couple of years ago when he lived the league in power play goals.
So he has that weapon, that ability to get the puck offf quick.
He doesn't have a big slap shot, but it's that quick release on the risk shot that he scores a lot of his goals.
He's around the paint a lot, so he scores a lot of those type of goals as well.
And yeah, as long as he's going to play with Nikita Krutrov, and those two have basically been paired for the past just five six years, not counting the COVID shortened season where Nikity Kutrov missed the entire regular seasons, there's no reason to think that the production value was still he's going to drop off much at all with Braydon Point, and those two are so in sync.
Some guys just know how to play with elite players.
Braydon Point knows how to play with an elite player like Nikita Krutrov.
Speaker 3We've already referenced him a little bit.
And the next guy we're going to talk about, Jake Gonzil, his first year in Tampa is more of the same secondstive season with point ninety three points per game or higher timeline ice shots, power play points all around his career average.
A couple things that were outliers.
His shooting percentage was a bit higher than usual nineteen percent, and his hits dropped down from er point seventy two to point three to five so half.
And I also noticed that Gainstil teems to bounce between ninety plus points seasons and then seasons closer to point per game, And if that holds true, that means next season will be above ninety, which Tampa Bay fans should be pretty happy about that.
But what do you think we're gonna expect from Gainstel this season?
Speaker 1Eric, Again, you talk about guys who know how to play with elite players all those years playing with Sidney Crosby a different type of player than Nikita kucher Off, but smart players just know how to figure it out.
And Gensel when anybody talks about Jay Goensel's game.
I always talk about the hockey iq the understanding on you, because again, he's not going to dazzle you.
He's not going to stick handle his way through three or four guys up the ice on a speed rush or anything like that.
He's just around the net, and he knows where to find quiet spots around the net.
People talked about Brett Hull in the way that he was able to just find those spots, and especially when he was working with Adam Oates, who could always find him in those areas.
Denzil just knows how to be in those areas, and Nikita Kutrov knows how to find guys who are gonna find those areas.
I don't think it's much of a coincidence that Gensil set a career high in goals his first year playing with Dakita Kutrov.
Year two, I almost expect more goal production because he's going to have a deeper understanding of working with Nakita Kutrov.
So you just mentioned he has the ninety points yiars as it seems to be higher the next year.
I have no reason to think it won't be higher this year because Genseil is just that smart of a player and getting those opportunities to be alongside Nikita for a full season and see, because like I said, sometimes you got to see the way Nikita Kutrov plays on a daily basis to understand what he's about.
And guys like Jake who grew up around the game and his dad was a coach and his dad's a scout.
So he's one of those typical sons of an NHL player, of a hockey player that just know how to play the game.
And there's no reason to think that Jake won't continue to get the number one power play time around the net where he found his niche on that top power play unit.
Yeah, I expect his production to be even bigger this year than it was in a year one with Tampa Bay.
Speaker 4Talk about a guy who knows how to play with elite players, Jake Gnsel.
Moving on Anthony Sirelli, he had a career year actually fifty nine points and one hundred and sixty shots, both career highs, career high ariverage time on ice.
You got all those scores we're talking about, somebody's got to do the hard defensive pulling, and that seems to be Sirelli, he finished third, and Selki voting commensurate with his role.
As I believe, as I'm looking at this, pretty much the most defensively deployed forward on the team or the most defensive zone shift starts among the players who had a significant minutes.
He's got six more years of a decent contract for the Bulls.
Like you say, he is, if anything, early prime or mid prime compared to some of the guys who were pushing thirty, like you say, because he's a couple of years younger.
But that offense last year, the fifty nine points is particularly intriguing to those of us playing the fantasy game.
He's also got a lot of blocks.
Is this the offense we saw last year?
In indication of a new level that Cirelli's fining.
Could he be a sixty point man or do we just need to calm him down and think of Soirelli as a defensive master who's going to have the big role for the lightning and shut down opponents.
Maybe get more like fifty points and that's his job.
What do you think about Sorelli's future?
Speaker 1They need him to be a sixty point guy, as crazy as that is.
The sound right, because they are the highest scoring team in the league.
But when you're playing that basically second center line role, you need the offensive production and that was always the kind of thing that was holding him.
Speaker 2Back a little bit.
Speaker 1He'd always flirt with twinny goals, but he never got there.
So you'd like to think that hitting that mark for the first time career will push him even further.
Speaker 2The thing that you maybe have to.
Speaker 1Worry a little bit about with Sorelli is a lot of that production came early in the year, right he was off to a hot start.
He found an ability that maybe he didn't show before to get to that home plate area of the ice and get shots off quick.
It's something Nick Paul does very well when he's in those areas.
I think Sorelli has learned to do that.
You look, a lot of those early season goals came from those areas and he found a shooter's touch right, you go bar down, but you hit those top corners.
He was doing a lot of that early year.
That kind of tailed off a little bit as the season went on, but they need him to be a productive guy because you can't rely on just Brayden point to be your scoring center.
You need second line center production, which they hadn't gotten til last year from Anthony strellily.
Speaker 2On a consistent basis.
Speaker 1So you need him to be continue you to be the Selki candidate that he can be and will be, But you do need him to be You don't need him to be Patrice Bergeron, but you need him to be some version of a Patrise Bergeron type of player who can play second line minutes and create offense.
And that's where the chemistry with Brandon Hagel comes into play, because those two do work so well together that you do need They're searching for another guy to play on the wing.
Hegel's on the left, Sorelli's in the middle.
They need somebody to be a consistent right wing threat for them on that line, and maybe that'll unlock maybe a little bit more.
Maybe it'll be Oliver byork Strand in his first full season with Tampa Bay.
We never got to see that last year after the trade.
But with Sorelli, he needs to be an offensive threat on a more consistent basis.
So you have to hope that the kind of year he had last year will lend itself to finally getting to that level to where he can be a consistent threat.
Speaker 4Bjork Strand is where we're going next with this team.
Obviously, he's made his rounds through Columbus, Seattle and out down to Tampa.
This was something he just noticed this and I looked it up.
And when they traded for or when they got the Danish byork Strand, it made for the ninth nationality represented on the roster.
I believe that tied the Chicago Blackhawks for the most international of all the NHL teams.
He maintained after they got him.
He did play a little bit toward the end of the season, like you said, on a lower line.
He maintained his kind of half point per game pace that he was on last year for those eighteen games before an injury against the Red Wings late in the season that took him out for the postseason.
He didn't get to play against the Panthers.
He is now thirty years old, in line with his team's age.
At this point, he's on an expiring contract and he's more settled into this team.
So what are you expecting.
Is he going to be the third guy on that second line, and what kind of performance do you think they'll get out of him?
Speaker 1We only saw it in practice last year.
We never actually saw it in the game him playing with Cirillian Hagel.
I think when they made that move they had that in mind, because again the entire season SAMs Stephen stank.
They were looking for that other threat on the right side, on the top two lines, and as any team does throughout a season, you shuffle things around and try and get good looks and good feels.
But we never got to that point with him, and then he was injured.
He didn't get to see him in the playoffs, where he has proven to be a performer in years past, whether it was in the AHL or certainly the light And remember all those goals you scored against them with Columbus through the years.
He can be a guy who's a twenty five goal scorer on this team, He's going to see some power play time.
He scored in his Lightning debut after the trade, and it was on a play for Nikita Kutirov.
So you talk about guys who understand how to play with great players.
I remember the comments he made after the game.
He had a chance to leave in that area and he said, no, I saw the puck on Nikita Kuchirov stick.
I figured I'd better hang around than that something might happen.
Sure enough, the punk found and end up scoring a goal in that game.
So he knows how to be around the net when things are in when he's in those areas, to stick around and hang around and understand what might happen, and just the anticipation that sometimes is a part of a player's instincts.
I think they want him to be a second line right wing guy, especially look at the way that this roster is currently constructed, and we've been going over the potential line combinations for the regular season, and every time we come back to York strand second line right wing.
He came over with Yanni Gord last year, and he played a lot with Yonni Gord after the trade.
I think that's just the familiarity.
Sometimes it can take certain players longer to adjust to new surroundings, and I think Oliver was in that standpoint.
And it's too bad because you could see he was starting to feel more comfortable right before the injury occurred.
And hopefully that comfort level that he was showing will continue with a full training camp with this team and then bleed into the regular season.
And he can be a twenty to twenty five goal score in a second line role.
Speaker 4I'm going to give you a pick em of some depth forwards on this team.
But this is a fun contrast.
This is this is like the movie Twins because I make all eighties culture references yere Nick Paul, and Yanni Gord.
Yanni gordat great legend of early Lightnings teams or Lightning teams from several years ago.
Nick Paul, but undersize Nick Paul, great big feller who does a lot of physical things.
A little bit more physical for this team.
And Paul was good for about forty points last year.
Yanni Gord, who they did get steal back from Seattle to it's time to steal back from those crack and they've been around long enough.
He got a little over half a point per game last year.
So of these two, which one do you think is going to be more productive next year?
Speaker 1Nick Paul, you know, you look at just his overall game.
He's gonna get a lot of third line center minutes.
He'll get some time probably in a top two line.
He's very versatile.
He can play wing, he can play center.
He transitions back and forth again and trying to look at what the lines might look like.
At the end of the season.
You had Nick Paul between Gage Gonsalves and Connor Geeky when Connor Geeky came back up from Syracuse, and they were a pretty good line.
And one of the things that the Lighting don't have a lot of on their forward lines is size, right, five to eleven, six foot maybe there's a guy six Brandon Hagel's list is six foot two.
He's not six foot two, right, They don't have that type of size.
Nick Paul has it, Connor Geeky has it, So that can be a line that was a force with some of that size, but also they could score.
Gage Gonsalves kind of took a big step forward last year.
He was a productive player the latter half of the season.
He might have been their most consistent scoring forward in the series against the Panthers.
So if that's the third line with Paul, Geeky and Gonsolves, then I think Nick Paul will be just as productive as he was last year, whereas Jonny gord is probably gonna be more of a fourth line type of center.
You look at Luke Lin Denning and not Re signing Luke Lin Denning.
I think Janni Gord probably slips right into that role, so his minutes will be a little bit more limited.
Maybe he'll kill some more penalties.
I don't know how much power play time Yanni Gord is going to get, whereas Nick Paul can be a consistent second power play unit guy, especially with some NetFront presence with that size that he has.
So if you're asking me to pick who will be more productive offensively between those two, I think it's going to be Nickpole.
Speaker 3Sounds good, and let's do another pick them newcomer Jacob Peltier who bounced around from Calgary to Philly last year, and Connor Geeky, who you just mentioned a little bit.
Pelotier put up forty cur hies in forty nine games with nineteen points between Calgary Philly.
Geeky had fourteen and fifty two games during the rookie season at times looked really good.
Kik, he definitely has a size advantage, but Pillotie has a little bit more experience and at least at times was thought to have some offensive upsides.
What do you think who think's going to get more points between these two?
Speaker 1I would go with Geeky as a lot of twenty year olds will do.
And there have been very few guys in the Steve Eisman slash Julian breezeblat Era who have skipped HL eligibility and jumped right in the NHL.
Geeky's one of them.
But you could see by December his game was starting to tail off.
It's a big jump going straight from junior into the NHL and the riggers of having to go up against the size and sometimes you're playing four games in a week and you get back to backs.
You could just see that it was just taking its toll on him.
So they sent him down to Syracuse for a couple of months to just find his confidence.
And I think he had nine goals and twelve games or fourteen games with the crunch, So he brought that confidence back up.
And so I just mentioned the fact that he was on a line with Nick Paul Engaged Consolves for a good portion of the latter half of the ladder, about six weeks of the regular season, and they were very good together.
Speaker 2They were very productive.
Speaker 1So I think Connor geek he brings more of a confident style of play, which is something he talked about a lot when he came back up from his stint in the AHL last year.
So I think that he's going to be the guy that's going to get more opportunity, whereas here is he's almost a reclamation project in some ways, right, But they have some thought on him, right They signed him to a three year contract, so they believe that there's something there that they can find and bring out.
And the Lightness certainly have a history of this with players who may be considered a little bit smaller that they can turn into productive players.
Jonathan Marshall Show and Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gord, guys that are considered undersizes, they found ways to get them confidence in anything else.
Speaker 2It'll be interesting with Peltier whether.
Speaker 1He starts in the NHL or they give him time in the HL, if they can get him through waivers at the end of training camp, if that's where he's at, if they can get him through So I think Geege is going to get the opportunity from the start of the season, whereas Peltier might have to find a way to earn his way into the lineup and then what kind of a role is he going to have?
Right, I knowing this team, he'll probably start in a fourth line role, even though he's more of an offensive style type of player.
So I think Geeky probably has a better opportunity to be more productive.
Speaker 3Sounds good.
Let's move over to the blue line.
I'm gonna start with Victor Headman.
At thirty four years old, Headman continued to put up offense close to career norms.
His first season at captain saw the lowest hits per game at point four nine.
He's still pretty great for preferal though, his block shots and hits at four point four to eight, ranking him one hundred and twenty ninth and all skaters starting a new four year deal.
What does the future look like Headman?
Is he going to start slowing down anytime soon?
Speaker 1As long as Victor Hedman continues to skate for the size that he has too right like you think he'd be a lumbering skater, he glides across the ice, and Rick Bonus, when he was one of the assistant coaches here, talked about that all the time.
He never had a player that size skate the way that Victor Hedman does.
So it's such still such an asset to his game and the fact that Ryan McDonough's return took some of the overall responsibilities off of Victor Headman.
He didn't have to be the first guy over on the penalty kill, he didn't have to be the first guy over at the end of games to try and close out when you have the lead late in the game.
Speaker 2He could be a little bit more of Victor Headman.
Speaker 1It's probably why the hits numbers went down a little bit because he wasn't being asked to do that on a work on that type of a basis, especially two years ago when Mikhail Sergachev was injured right and there, they really didn't have much depth on the left side behind Headman.
After that, he took on a lot of resp responsibility two years ago with the minutes and everything else.
That kind of eased off a little bit and allowed him to be the offensive player that he can be in certainly number one power play time playing with that top power play unit, which even though the Lightning's power play finished twenty five percent to top five in the league.
I think internally they would tell you it was a little inconsistent at times, but he was a consistent right up there.
I think what we would actually like to see out of Victor is shooting the puck more right.
He doesn't, probably doesn't shoot the puck enough from the point, especially in the power play, to be that guy.
Because he's got a hard shot, he's got a one hundred nine hours shot.
He probably would like to see him use it a little bit more often.
So I'm continue to see as long as Ryan McDonough continues to be the solid professional defenseman that Ryan McDonough is, then that's going to allow Victor Hedman to maybe take a couple of less minutes per game, which is going to help his overall game.
Speaker 4Next, we've got Darren Radish, one of the great Radish brothers here.
He debuted late in his career.
He's already twenty nine and hasn't been around it seems like all that long, but he continues to grow into a larger role with this team.
Seems like a decent deal to play with Victor Headman.
By the way, that's probably not a bad way to get yourself a couple of secondary points and make yourself a nice impact.
His role with Headman, however, is that even strength, he doesn't play a whole lot of special teams seventeen eighteen average time on ice.
He also doesn't get too many peripheral type stats.
Thirty seven points in seventy three games, more than half a point per game, pretty nice for defenseman.
And he's got excellent goals above replacement.
He's second among the team defenseman and number one is not Victor Headman in terms of the goals above replacement metrical burn Evolving hockey.
But where's Radish's place on this team?
Is he sort of Headman's steady partner or could he somehow sneak himself into some kind of different role.
What do you think and how was his play?
What do you think of mister Radish.
Speaker 1He's interesting to keep an eye on this year because they ran a lot of seven and eleven at the end of last year's seven defenseman eleven forwards, But a lot of that was because of Radish's improved play.
When the season started and they had the seven defenseman, he was basically the odd guy out to start the year.
He was the one that was scratched more consistently than anybody else, but the JJ Moser got hurt in December and he didn't come back until after the Four Nations break so that allowed Radish to get into the lineup on a more consistent basis, and that's where you saw improvements.
The thing with Darren, the offense has always been there.
That's always been the strength of his game, going back to his junior days playing on some of those Powerhouse Eerie teams.
He's not a great defender, but he's improved even at now twenty nine.
I think that's what's allowed him to stay with the Lightning and see some ice time as this improved defensive play, and if that improved defensive play continues, he'll see some time now where he plays that's a good question because for a good portion of the year when Moser was healthy, he was the left shot d playing the right side with Victor Hedman, and Radish was rotating with that third pairing that included a Mill Lilliberg and then Nick Perbicks.
This year will be Max Krozier taking the Nick's Perbock role and that aspect, So where's he gonna play, Who's he gonna play with?
Will he see power play time?
He's not a great power play quarterback.
He's got a great shot, He's got a good, hard, pretty accurate shot, but he doesn't see a lot of power play time, so he's an interesting guy to keep an eye on.
Where what's his role this year?
Will the lighting go eleven and seven?
We just talked about all the forwards.
I don't know that they go eleven and seven a lot this year because they feel they have better depth amongst your forward group.
And who's going to be the odd man out when it comes to dressing six defensemen out of those seven just mentioned right, we know mcdonnal and Chernach are gonna be a pair.
We assume Hedman will play with Moser again as long as Moser's healthy, and then that leaves Liliberg, Krozier and Radish as your third pairing.
And Lilaburg's still young, Radish twenty nine years old.
He's got a lot of hockey experience, but he doesn't have a ton of NHL experience.
And then Max Krozer's still trying to find his way into a consistent ring.
We've liked him every time he's come up.
So don't know where Darren radis lands in terms of the playing time.
A lot of that I think will be sworted out in training camp.
Certainly he'll see some time with Victor Hedman.
We saw just as they did with Mikail Sergachev.
When Sargachev was here, he'd play left side, he'd go up and play top minutes with Victor Headman at times.
I think Moses is not to the same level as Mikhail Sergachev, but I think he'll have that opportunity to sometimes, even within games, play left side right side, dependent on situational play.
But I think Moser's gonna be the more consistent guy with Victor Hedman, even though it's his off side.
Speaker 2So where does Darren Raddish fit.
Speaker 1That's a question that only he can answer with his play in training camp in the early part of the season.
Speaker 4Ryan McDonough actually is the winner of the trivia question who had the highest goals of our replacement among defensemen last year, And that was kind upset.
The reunion went well.
His time in Nashville didn't last longer than the average rival party that shows up there from time to time.
He came back to Tampa as an alternate captain and he played well and even strength to offense and even strength defense.
He passed a thousand career games played last year.
Tread the tread is wearing on the tires, there's no doubt about that.
But from outside, he looks like one of those kind of veteran leader types who doesn't show up as much on the score sheet, plays a good role with the team.
Contract is expiring this year, but we've seen a whole lot from McDonough in the past, and one wonders whether that still might be in there.
Thirty one points last year in eighty two games.
What are you expecting from Ryan McDonough this year?
Speaker 2A lot of the same.
Speaker 1He's just he's mister steady and everything he does, he's not going to put up a lot of points.
Maybe earlier in his career when he was running number one power play with the Rangers, but he's at the time of his career to where he understands what he's being asked but doesn't mean he can't.
Like he had a shorthanded goal last year off the rush, and he understands the times to jump up in the play and be involved, but he knows that his job is to be the defender.
Speaker 2And you mentioned the veteran leader.
His voice in that.
Speaker 1Locker room, it's so strong, it's so strong that he just keeps everything together when they lost Steven Stamkos, and he was such a strong leader.
He is such a strong leader they needed somebody to not replace that role, but just be that type of a voice in.
Speaker 2The locker room.
Speaker 1I think McDonough's presence back on the ice in the locker room steadied a lot of things out.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the Lightning's defensive numbers jumped as high as they did from two years ago to last year with McDonough's back.
With McDonough's back right, he unlocked Eric Chernak.
He got Chernac back to playing at his level.
There's such a good duo together, so I expect more the same type of minutes, the same type of role, a lot of penalty killing from Ryan McDonough.
I mean, his play last year earned him an invitation to Team USA's pre Olympic camp.
I don't know if he's going to make the team.
I think the USA is stacked defensively with guys who were younger and are better skaters, and we know Quinn Hughes didn't even play in the four Nations last year for them.
But the fact that McDonald was invited where he's at his age.
You don't think of those Olympic teams outside of Sydney Crosby bringing in players who are at that point in their career.
But McDonough's play and his veteran leadership and certainly he's been there before in Olympic teams, all of that is on the table with Ryan McDonald's from that fantasy standpoint, he's not gonna put up a ton of offense and numbers, but he's going to give you the block shots, right, He's going to give you the penalty killing minutes that can lead to more block shots and everything else.
He's just you don't worry when Ryan McDonald's on the ice.
And I know that's a little bit different from a fantasy perspective, but he eats a lot of minutes because he just does his job every time he's out there.
Speaker 3Let's move over to the blue line and talk goalies.
The Lightning were ranked seventh and expected goals against for sixty, but finished fourth in ranked actual goals for sixty.
The main reason for that, of course, andre Vosileski, who played sixty three games and in that time had twenty eight point eight goals save above expected.
That's a pretty awesome number.
Of course, we've come to expect that from the great goaltender Delta.
Fenwick was also very strong and his record was really good thirty eight, twenty and five Jonas Johansen.
You know, it definitely kept them afloat in the games that he played, which hasn't always been the gig case for him.
Nineteen games he saved just a little bit, just half a goal above expected and went nine six and three during that time.
So is this kind of a similar split we should expect this season Eric between the two, maybe Veslevsky plays a little more.
What do we think is going to happen with the Tampa goalies?
Speaker 1I think ideally they'd want to keep Vasilevski in the fifty five game range, fifty five to sixty.
I think a lot of teams nowadays, I mean, like the days of Marty burd Drew starting seventy five games in the season or some of the numbers that he put up in his career, I think those days are past.
I think any team will look at their goal to any tandem.
Everybody says they need two goalies, and that's absolutely true in today's game.
So even with a guy like Vasilewski, who returned to his elite level coming off the back surgery the season before.
I think you definitely want to maintain a level because everybody's looking at the bigger picture.
The Light didn't expect to be a playoff team.
Internally, for sure, they feel they're a Stanley Cup contending team.
And the way sometimes to make sure you can remain that is obviously you have to put yourself in position during the regular season, but it's also to have a goalie who's not worn down come April.
So I think ideally, if everything if they could script everything out, I think could be a fifty five to sixty game situation for Andre Vasileski, which would leave twenty to twenty five games in that range for you, Honestio Hansson, But you also have to have your backup give you a chance.
And the numbers sometimes aren't pretty with theo Hansson, but he picked up points.
Speaker 2Twelve twelve starts.
Speaker 1He picked up points, and that's what you ask of your backup goaltender.
So the goals against and the same percentage might not be at a level that you would necessarily feel comfortable with, but he does what you ask a goalie to do, and he gives you a chance.
And with Vazi, he's such a competitor.
If you listen to any of his comments coming out of exit meetings last year, he was ticked off that they lost again in the first round.
Speaker 2He was not happy.
Speaker 1He understands their home record in the playoffs over the last three years, even going back to the twenty twenty two Stanley Cup Final against Colorado, their home record has been atrocious.
He's already internalized all those things.
And if that's the case, you're still going to see a very strongly motivated andre Vasilevski who never has any great goaltender.
He never wants to see a goal behind him, So continue to let that be his drive, and if that's the case, you can see another similar type of vesn a caliber year out of andre Bazileski.
Speaker 4All right, that has been a great tour around these Tampa Bay Lightning Eric.
Tell people how they can follow all your work.
Speaker 1Yeah, the website is lightinginsider dot com.
It's very easy to find.
It's the website was rebuilt a couple of years ago, so it's much more user friendly, a lot easier to navigate around, and certainly it's a premium website.
So there's two plans.
You have a yearly plan, you have a monthly plan as well.
There's two ways to sign up and coverage from the start of training camp which is just around the corner, all the way to the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, which Lenny fans hope is going to take them into June once again this year as this team feels that they are a contender.
So Lightinginsider dot com is the website.
Speaker 4All right, Thank you so much, Eric, and good luck following.
Was it you said your twenty seventh season of Lighting or twenty sixth.
Speaker 2I was trying to add it up.
I think it's twenty six all right.
Speaker 1Like I started at the paper in two thousand as the backup, I took over an oh one as the full time beat.
You had a miss season there in four oh five.
Speaker 2I do I count that.
I don't know.
It's been a long damn time, that's all I know.
Speaker 4When you've done that much math, you heat have earned it.
You have paid your dues.
Speaker 2Thanks so much for coming on, Eric, Yeah, my pleasure.
Guys.
Be well, Wilson, that's good fire.
Pat, Oh my goodness.
Speaker 3Long with a Cat crap.
Speaker 4Now it's your weekly goalie talk.
But Kat Silverman, Cat's instincts.
Speaker 3Time once again for Cat's instincts.
With Kat Silverman and benbo Mag we're talking lightning goalies.
Yes, eventually they will need another goalie aside from Harry Vassilevski.
Here are some names to think about.
The first one Harrison Meighan.
He's twenty years old, six foot, four hundred and seventy four pounds, drafted two hundred and six overall back in twenty twenty four.
Last year he finished his last WHL season.
It took the Medicine at Medison Hat Tigers to the Memorial Cup, winning WHL and taking home MVP honors in the process.
Looking at his equivalency, it looks pretty awful considering his achievements.
I don't quite understand it.
Maybe it was just a product of the team around him, but he's hovering in the iteens percentage in terms of being in NHL or not.
A whole lot of great comps there, but Scott Wedgward is one point.
He certainly was the service backup for a while and has had runs of relevancy.
Kat, what are instincts tell us about Menigan.
Speaker 5Menigan's a tough one because he looks like a project.
Even though he took them the MVP honors, he won the Memorial he took the Medicine Hat Tiger, Medicine Hat Tigers to the Memorial Cup.
He looked like a lot of what he was doing right is standing there.
That that sounds bad, but he was very good at not overplaying the situation behind a defense that really understood how to clean things up in front of him, and so that can be why we send of a low comp for him, even though he did have essentially a really illustrious season.
From the trophy shelf perspective, his skating looks fine.
I think his decision making looks overly cautious and less like he's got really sharp instincts and more like he is willing to play it safe at all times, which is not necessarily a bad thing, but is if Lightning fans are expecting someone who plays like Vassilevsky, who really takes control and does a really good job of dictating the play, does a good job of reading what's going on with the defense in front of him him and sometimes playing a more conservative game where he essentially allows the defense to control how much space the offense is allowed to have within his zone.
But other times he is able to really engage in the play more and become a little more aggressive and challenging for the offense.
That is not something that I've seen super consistently for Menigan.
He is only twenty, he has only played in the juniors, so that is something that is harder to do, particularly in the WHL, which is a very defense heavy faction of the CHL.
If we look at really good offense and goaltending from the OHL, we look at really good defense and structure from the WHL, and it's not necessarily his fault.
It would have been hard for him to try and take control with a really structured defense in front of him at the WHL line playing in the system that he did against the types of skaters that are playing in the WHL, which is definitely more of a two way hockey system.
But I think we will see when he arrives in Syracuse what that looks like with the Crunch, so I think we'll have a better idea of whether or not he is an air apparent.
Right now, he doesn't look like he is the next greatest thing for the Lightning.
But every time they do draft someone who seems like the next greatest thing, we expect to see that person backing up Andre Basilevski, and instead they sign a goaltender who is one year older than the goaltender that they had as a backup the year prior.
So they don't seem like they are willing to allow that prospect tandem situation.
Speaker 2Maybe they will.
Speaker 5I don't think that he is in any way, shape or former for that.
We're probably three or four years away from if he ends up being a really good NHLer.
I would say that's probably going to be when it hits, but that's not what Tampa has shown that they're looking for right now anyway.
Speaker 3All right, well let's talk about the other guy, and that's Caleb heel Isle.
Nineteen years old, sixty two, one hundred ninety six pounds, Drafted one hundred and ninety third overall back in twent twenty five, this current recently just happen draft.
He spent his draft season in the USHL for the Madison Capitals, where his numbers were really not great kind a surprising actually, than he did get drafted.
His hockey prospecting equivalency is pretty low, and not a whole lot of NHL is in there.
Chris Mason is probably the best from that lot.
There's a lot of development to go with kat.
What are yours to tell us about Ohile?
Speaker 5He looks like a long term project for them.
He has already committed to North Dakota for the twenty six twenty seventh season.
He's got another year, it looks like with the Madison Capitals, and then he's going to move to playing college hockey.
So I do think that's a really weird draft pick for Tampa because he really looks to me from a playing perspective, like they could have gotten him for free as an unsigned player when he was playing in college if he ended up really panning out.
But I don't know, that's a really strange pick for me.
I don't think he looks bad per se.
He looks like I don't know.
I think he looks a lot like a kid who has spent a lot of time at USA Hockey goaltending camps.
So nothing super inspired about his plate, nothing terrible, no huge red flags.
He's not quite as aggressive as Drew Camesso was.
He's not anywhere near as controlled and precise as Spencer Knight was.
I think he's just He's just there.
And I think that Tampa is probably hoping that since they are going to be a little resource depleted when it comes to getting goaltenders in the next three or four years, they won't have the bargaining chips to coax players in for free, so they drafted him instead.
That's the only real reason I can think of that they did this.
I did do a real quick dive to see his dad did play professional hockey.
I wanted to see if he was potentially listed as a scout for Tampa.
Doesn't seem like he is.
But that's something that I guess only the Edmonton Oilers do.
Speaker 2But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 5I think North Dakota is a really fun place to see goaltenders develop.
They have a really good system where their goaltenders and the goaltenders in the area and their women's team RIP all have gotten a chance over the years to really do a lot off the ice together.
They do a lot of cross training together.
The Lamarou family.
Jp Lamarou is I believe he's the eldest brother and he does a lot with North Dakota hockey with goaltending and elite camps around und so I think it's a good place for him to develop, but I don't know it's I'm glad that the Lightning are drafting goalies, but every goalie they've drafted in the last four or five years hasn't really obviously stuck in their system, so we'll see.
Maybe they're rolling the dice again and anticipating Vassilevski sticking around until he's forty five.
Speaker 3That'll be fun to seek.
So Kat, thanks for giving us your instincts some of the Gray Lightning Wolves.
Speaker 4Victor, there is something else we got to talk about.
Don't we have something special to give to the listeners.
Speaker 3That's right, Jesse Dauber Hockey has generously given us a couple of free copies of their amazing fantasy hockey guide.
It's the Bible.
It's the best fantasy hockey guide out there, and we're gonna give it away to some of our listeners.
All you need to do is leave us a recent from the time you hear this five star review on apple Pad Podcasts or the podcast app of your choice, and then send it to me Victor.
A screenshot with your name or a way to identify you and your most recent five star review, otherwise I don't have a way to track who it was.
And then we'll select a couple of the winners from all those who enter and get you your guide.
Speaker 4We'll be back right after this dig The Dynasty Jig Cantlbay The Lightning Edition sixer ruff over here.
The Lightning have traditionally been good drafters, but they've also been a very good team, as you heard, which puts them at last place victor in your team rankings.
Nonetheless, unlike some teams, we do have three teams to go or three players to go over today it starts with your no brainer.
Speaker 2Who is it?
Speaker 3No brainer?
Is Ethan Zata.
Zata was a twenty twenty five second round pick fifty six overall sixty two hundred and seventy nine pounds.
He was playing in the HL for the Niagara Asked Ice Dogs and had a jump from seven goals and seventeen points in sixty two games in his D minus one season to twenty one goals and fifty five points in sixty eight games this season, and he did play at the UA teams for Canada five points in seven games in all a good draft season, but not some not exceptional, and that kind of exemplifies his fifty six overall ranking.
Looking at his Fantasy HOWK Life player card, you see a little less green than you would like.
But the play driving and transition numbers are good, not amazing.
The passing, especially the passes of the slot and pre shot passes are pretty good.
He doesn't shoot a lot, but he's a pretty efficient shooter when he does, and so that's good.
He does take a lot of pims, so Ethan Zotta good for pims if that's what you want, and also really good for bash.
You know, even though his shots aren't very good, his hits and blocks are excellent.
So this is a guy with a high peripheral floor, which it will be nice in case his scoring doesn't fully translate.
I have him at a five point three five thirty five percent chance of being an average roster player, but certainly room to grow here for Zota.
So that's nice to see.
Let's hear what else makes him interesting From our Fantasy Hockey Life Scout.
Speaker 4FHL scout Tony has this to say about Zada.
He is an effective skater with some speed, very adept at finding open teammates with passes, a variety of ways to me puck possession, variety of shots, wrist snap and slap.
An accurate shooter, Ethan seems to have great vision and anticipation while playing with the puck, allowing him to find open teammates and get open for another shot on the give and go.
Little in o panic, Tony observed in Ethan's games for checking, Zada did a fair amount of Ford checking, although not overly aggressive, and with his anticipation in for checking, he's an excellent defensive player.
So the best asset here was the Hockey IQ.
Biggest concern Ethan's not dynamic in any one area of the game.
The top tier outcome Tier two, middle six some penalty kill and power play time.
Ethan's a responsible, trustworthy player, so he's most likely not going to get your team beat, but he's also not going to wow anyone.
Tier three bottom six PK time would be a median outcome here because he lacks dynamic play, not a lot of bash, not much physicality, and the stylistic comparable.
Tony comes up with Anthony Sirelli.
Frankly, he thinks, if this guy develops anywhere near Anthony Surelli Tampa will have made a great selection.
Mason Black, the Lord Stanley Division Tidy Champion and the NHL Rank King put out the poll Ethan Zada versus void tech chie Hush, and Zada wins that one fifty six forty four Victor, Uh, Do you have strong opinions on these two?
Not really?
Speaker 3These are both really deaf guys that aren't super interesting.
But I definitely would take Zata here.
I think, for one thing, he's got a much higher equivalency in a couple of the models.
I'll get into that in a sec.
But chi haas is they're both they were both drafted this year, They're both you know, kind of similar in terms of where they were drafted and everything.
But I do think that Zata has a little bit more of the upside.
Looking at the hockey prospecting between the two, he has a thirteen chance of being a star based on its OHL time, and chi has is down at two percent.
Part of that is not having an equivalency in is D minus one season.
So yeah, neither of these look super exciting.
I will say that Zata does have a Castper Halton in comp and a Nick Robertson comp, which we still don't fully know how those are going to work out, but they're trending to be at least somewhat relevant, whereas we don't know about chi Has.
Looking at the Fantasyacica Life player card for both these guys, there's just a whole lot of color in the chia Has one.
There's not so good play driving, the shooting and is not so good the passing is a little bit better.
Priffs are decent at sixty five percent, sixty six percent, transition game at sixty four percent, so all in all, not super exciting.
And the comp that is probably most exciting here for Zata is Halton in with some other potential options that we're mostly busts or guys that were average producers, and looking at the j Fresh card, just one percent chance for Ethan Zata to be a star, eight percent chance of being an NHL or Jesse.
Speaker 4Well, now that we've gotten through the headliner, the blockbuster, who's the need to know prospect?
Speaker 3Yeah, a very uninspiring headliner for sure, and the will go next to Sam O'Reilly as the need to know He twenty four first runner, thirty second overall, sixty pounds, was drafted by Edmonton and traded to Tampa and Isaac Coward deal.
This to me is clearly a floor for ceiling trade.
Sam O'Reilly is a very high ceiling, high floor guy, whereas Isaac Coward has a much higher ceiling, And so I think O'Reilly is someone who you're most likely going to be able to fit into your bottom six.
Play reliable, tough minutes, but I'm not sure that he's going to be super exciting in terms of fantasy.
Although he was over a point per game this season with London as they won the Memorial Cup and certainly an important part of that.
He was awesome in the playoffs twenty two points in seventeen games, so you know, you like to see that, and you hope that maybe he can translate more of that.
I'm just not sure.
But if you look at his Fantasy Hockey Life player card, he rates out extremely well in shooting and passing almost ninetieth percentile, eighty ninth percentile priffs, pretty strong bash at eighty second percentile.
He also is pretty good with play driving and transition, both in the mid to low seventies there So, all in all, pretty strong OHL play he is nineteen, so he's not He's a little bit older, but not super old for that league.
I have him at a four point sixty five, so just a pretty solid chance of being a sub average roster player.
And it depends on how deep your league is.
He might be a little bit more exciting versus if it's a shallow lead.
Not super exciting.
But let's find out what is interesting about sama rally from my FRHL scout Jesse.
Speaker 4Well, Victor, you still have me awake.
Let's see what lead scout Patrick can do to change my mind on mister O'Reilly.
He says skating improve the skating somewhat now slightly above average.
He has added some berths that he's able to use on the rush, passing and handling.
Skilled in those areas, Riley is able to handle intight, including along the boards.
However, despite his playmaking skills, he isn't the primary play driver.
Shooting an average rich shot, most effective in closed and specializes in tip ins the IQ the hockey IQ.
O'Reilly stays composed, He sticks with it on board, battle stays in motion, being good position and anticipation is most evident on defense.
O'Reilly is a contributor on the fore check.
He competes along the boards, including throwing opportune hits.
Sam takes his defensive duties seriously and is often the first forward, staying close to his man he's counted on to help on the penalty kill.
Patrick says that Sam O'Reilly's best asset in some is his two hundred foot game.
The biggest concern despite his point total, science point to a somewhat limited points upside at the higher levels.
The top tier outcome probably a middle sixer fifty to fifty five points, no power play time, although there's some possibility he could be NetFront on the power play.
The justification solid overall game leading to solid but limited role based on the lack of higher end skill and the median outcome bottom six thirty five to forty five points.
Because his compete and defensive acumen, along with playmaking ability, means he can be valuable in the bottom six.
Patrick thinks maybe a Scott Lawton type and Mason Black put up the poll Sambuel Riley versus Teddy Stega of the Nashville Predators.
Old Teddy wins this one fifty one point four to forty one point forty eight point six victor.
What do you think of that one?
Speaker 3The man who I was so tired at the draft that I mispronounced his name is Steady Tiga.
How can you go against him?
Yeah?
I still like him.
He is.
Speaker 1That.
Speaker 3Both these guys are most likely going to be middle to bottom six forwards that aren't super exciting in terms of fantasy, But I would take Stega.
He did have a pretty great season at Boston College.
Thirty points in thirty six games.
That's a huge jump from being just a little bit over a point per game at the us NTTP and USHL to being near point per game at in the NCAA.
Is pretty awesome.
Of course, we remember his heroics in the U twenty World Junior Championship game.
I think wasn't the only shot and only goal he scored in the whole tournament was?
I believe it was a gold medal game if I remember correctly.
That was pretty awesome.
He was pretty clutch and yeah it was yeah, one goal on one shot.
Oh he had more than one shot.
I think No, that was it?
Okay, Sorry, just fact checking myself in real time.
Literally the only opportunity he got and he buried it for the win against Finland, and you know, I think that's the kind of player he's going to be.
Both these guys, but I think Steka, even more than o'reiley, is going to be one of those clutch depth performers who may work his way up to the top of the lineup.
He kind of reminds me a little bit of Dawson Mercer.
Just really smart, complain to where in the lineup, but probably won't be super exciting in terms of fantasy or just kind of always leave you wanting more.
But as a coach on your team, you'll love him.
And I think that that's probably what we'll say about both these guys, say I do like the Scott Latin com for Sam o'reiley.
I think he's just going to be hard to play against, you know, reliable middle six guy, and that's good for your team.
That's so good for fantasy.
Looking at the hockey prospect between the two, o'reiley kind of held steady at seven and then six percent chance of being a star.
Steka went down from twenty four to ten percent, even though he had a really strong NCAA team.
Byron's model really punishes and unless you absolutely knock it out of the park.
So ten percent chance of being a star isn't super high, but still a little bit more than o'reiley.
And if you look at Teddy's Fantasy Taic Life player card, there's a lot of green here as well, just like there is for o'reiley in a much harder league.
So I think that that cast a tip towards Stiga, and I have him at a six point four to six so a pretty decent shot at being an above average player on your fantasy team, much better than Sam o'reiley.
Looking at some other cops comps for Sam o'reiley, I think Emmi Heinemann is a reasonable one.
None of these guys are super exciting.
They're pretty much all average producers at best.
Looking at the j freshcard, just two percent chance of being a star, eighteen percent chance of being an NHL or Jesse.
Speaker 4Well, all right, then, and who is the keep your eye on prospect picker?
Speaker 3The keep your eye on is Nico hutanin twenty twenty one, seventh round pick six, three hundred and ninety eight pounds.
He had his first full season in the HL this season, twenty points in fifty one games.
He'd kind of bounced around a bit.
He developed in Finland, then he came to the WHL, and then went back to Finland, and then just came back to North America, so it's kind of been all over the place.
His calling card is a massive shot, which he can definitely unleash in the right situation.
But he also isn't necessarily the fleetest of foot in getting around the ice another situations, so that might limit him a bit.
But it was, you know, a decent first season in North America playing professional hockey.
You look at his Fantasy Hockey Life player card and there's some missing data here from his AHL time, but a lot of his play driving wasn't great.
He does bash a lot, though his hits, blocks and shots mainly his hits, though he hits a lot, is going to be really high, so that gives him a solid perferle floor.
Let's hear what else is solid about Houten from our FHL scout.
Speaker 4And Patrick has this to say about Nico Houtonen, who used to be a little earlier in this preview.
In years past, houtinin can has average skating.
He is able to keep up with play and in some cases go end to end average passing and handy, but occasionally shows flashes of a little more.
Most of his passes are simple and somewhat effective, but he can get passes the teammates in high danger areas.
He can sometimes handle through crowds and contact, but also has a tendency to try to do too much a heavy shot that he will lost and shoot from near the point or around the face off dots.
However, he could benefit from being more selective with his shots.
Houton in shows some instances of good vision and anticipation.
There are times when he can use more patients, but others when he could use more urgency.
Houton is involved in the four check via checks, poke checks and board battles.
Plays his part on defense, skates back hard, uses his body, or battles for the puck with his stick.
Patrick says the number one asset is that heavy shot and the biggest concern of the overall skating that could hold him back when he gets to the NHL.
The top tier outcome here middle sixer on the power play fifty to sixty points because he plays a physical game with a good amount of skill that will make him a good asset.
The median outcome more of a bottom sixer power play two forty to forty five points.
Good assets, but lack of a higher pace, better defense, and lower end skill could limit his role.
And the stylistic comparable Patrick gives here is somewhat comparable to Pat Maroon and the Mason Black poll that he put out Nico Houtonen versus Dean la Turno, and that is fifty six point six to forty three point four Victor Whoten in victory.
Is that would you think?
Speaker 3I guess depends on what you want.
Hutin In is close to the NHL, although I kind of feel like he might end up just being a tweener and not someone who really gets relied on for NHL minutes.
I think i'd probably lean Laturno because he is still really young in his development.
Remember he was He's the huge six', seven two hundred fourteen pounds and he was playing in high school when he was Drafted.
St.
Andrews and he transitions straight from there to THE ncaa after a COUPLE ushl games and it was.
Rough we kind of figured it would be, rough and it was.
Rough he had literally three assists in thirty six games Of Boston college playing a depth.
Role it.
Was it was a big adjustment for.
Him but since he's so early in the, FUNNEL i would Take laturno because he still has plenty of.
Time he's still a.
Teenager he's.
BIG a lot of, times it takes bigger guys longer to kind of coordinate and get it all figured.
Out SO i would Take, laturno give him two three years and he might be a solid, producer whereas Hutin, in maybe he figures it, out maybe he gets a chance With, tampa BUT i think the reality is he might end up just being a tweener BECAUSE i haven't seen much beyond his great.
Shot and if you look at the hockey prospecting between the, two while both these guys are pretty, low Hutin in graduate of the model at two percent chance of being a, Star laturno is literally at zero.
Percent and that's because he just basically didn't score this.
Year looking at the hockey prospecting or, sorry The Fantasy akic life player card For, laturno one of the real positives is that a lot of his transition game At Boston college was really solid eighty two percent for transition.
GAME a lot of his breakouts were.
Excellent a lot of his entries were very.
Good some of his play driving numbers were really, good his puck, battles his loose puck, Recovery he's using that really big frame really.
Well lots of hits fifty one percent For, bash but eighty percent of that is his.
Hits so there's looks like there's going to be a strong peripheral, floor AND i think we just got to give him a little bit of.
TIME i have him at a five point four zero forty percent chance of being an average roster, player AND i think there's upside for.
More SO i would definitely Take laturno, here unless you just really wanted someone super close to THE nhl and didn't want to.
Wait THEN i could see that.
Argument looking at some other comps for Hutin, in there aren't really a lot of good.
Ones maybe Uh Casperi kappanan in terms of average, producer who might be kind of, Similar but even that Capin in is much.
Quicker how the j fresh card for Hutan in one percent chance of being a, star forty seven percent chance of being AN NHLer as, usual pretty.
Pessimistic and that is.
It that is our last team.
Preview if you're a, patron you can listen to my top ten prospects recap On patreon WHICH i finished all of, them And jesse is going to put into one big one composed files for you to listen to, continuously which will be super.
Fun and we really appreciate you sticking through all of.
This and if you're interested in helping out the show doing any scouting with, us even as we move into the regular, season we'll still be doing some, scouting shoot me A dm On, Twitter, discord or email.
Speaker 4Us be right back to close out the.
Show our show is brought to you by fantracks dot.
Com you can play all your league silvert fan.
Tracks they got nine different.
SPORTS i play five of.
Them don't try to make me play f.
One i'm already in enough trouble as it is here at.
Home they have the most options for, scoring, salaries, contracts rookie, eligibilities slow, drafts rookie, drafts everything you're gonna want to have for the upcoming fantasy hockey, Season so check out fantracks dot.
Com there's also fantasy content in and around.
It you can check out articles on fantasy hockey and Other Fantasy SPORTS fhl crew Represent we Got, tim, A Ryan simo And craftzer running them tidy leaks which are in between now the in between the drafts and free agency coming.
Soon tony And patrick you heard them this.
Episode there are lead Scouts, Mike steven And matt got us through this summer with amazing show prep for a ton of.
Guys brandon helps with the, website prospect, ranks.
Visualizations there's some cool stuff going.
There and if you've got skills you'd like to lend the.
Show victor would love to hear from you in, discord email or social.
Media we are also brought to you By Dauber Hockey Dauber.
Prospects victor is an editor and he's writing the journey there the article and you can follow all of this.
WORK i do a solo show Called Dynasty Sports.
LIFE i talk about four Different Dynasty sports follow us on social media on x It's Fan Hockey life And Victor nuno twelve On Blue, Sky Jesse severe and The.
One victor rate and review Us Apple, Pods spotify wherever else you get your.
Pods five, stars kind, Words thank you.
Everybody hope you enjoyed this.
Tour through thirty two teams to help you prepare for this Year's Fantasy Hockey life