Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by Hard Rove bet We are part of the Volume podcast network.

This is the betting show that makes the squares.

Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Milman.

I am joined by my b ff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter Ello.

Simon, Chad, how are we doing?

Listen?

This is like our official Halloween episode.

And for those who don't know, Matt Mitchell is a fiend for Halloween and all themed episodes, so I would expect it to be very spooky today, spookier than the lines themselves.

Simon, I know you like to go out and celebrate Halloween.

It's what all single do in their thirties love to do.

Definitely back in the day all about it, you could just go out and enjoy the festivities.

Now I literally do the old man move.

I got a buddy who lives a town next to me.

It's one intent there's a lot of people know.

It's called Haddonfield, and they really do it up.

She's really old Victorian homes they do up for Halloween, like literally make them like haunted houses, and like a whole street gets blocked off and it's a middle aged shit show.

It's a really good time.

You basically just go there, walk from house to house, blackout, maybe take some psychedelics, who knows, and it's a really good time again because everyone's in a mask.

You know, if you're talking to a fifty year old or a twenty year old, it's it's a really funny time.

So yeah, definitely going to be a fun night Friday.

Yeah.

I said to my wife this morning, so you know, tomorrow's Halloween.

How do we get the fuck out of here and go somewhere so we can avoid it all?

She goes, what do you mean, there's so many kids who are going to come by, we can't disappoint them.

I'm like, we don't even have kids at home.

She goes, I know, but all the kids in their costume, they're so cute.

We got to be here at least for a little while.

I lost that battle.

Yeah.

My favorite thing, which you can do if you want to have fun, is I saw there's a guy every year he gives out potatoes.

Yeah I saw this.

Yeah, what's having this guy?

Because kids come by, they're like, I still have my potato from last year.

I saved it this whole year, and now I have another one.

I don't know.

I think it's just being funny and the kids are into it, so I just made me think it.

You know, I don't give up any I just put a bucket out, and we.

Will put out the bucket and you know, hopefully people are kind and they don't take all the candy at once.

That's what we hope for.

This is our Thursday, week nine episode.

We're going to arrow down the options on our quest to find five picks that we both agree on.

I don't know, I feel like we're far apart on a bunch of games, so it's going to be tricky to find those five.

In case you missed it, Matt Mitchell, As I mentioned, our long time producer has returned feedback as a gift.

You have any comments about the show, to send them all to Matt Mitchell.

Another reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify.

All right, let's get into this thing.

Every week we give out our picks on Tuesday, and every week your professional betting colleagues, Simon have strong opinions about what we discuss on the show, and they like to share them with you, and then we share them with everybody else here on Thursdays in our favorite segment, it's time for shark calls.

I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain telephone range.

Somebody said, maybe want to do man Chad?

Is it's strange days?

Just this year?

Is it strange days?

Because the wise agree with me on just about every single game.

No, you're gonna get slaughtered this week, but you might not.

That's the strange days because the public, they've been hit, they've been cashing on these weeks.

You've been going back to last year.

They have weeks like.

This where they are it feels like they're stepping in it and they get away with it.

And maybe it's the new age.

But the favorites, like you've seen all the data chat, it's like the best run they've ever had the start of season right now.

And these last two weeks it's been insane.

What was eleven and two?

Like you said last week.

Normally I would be hammering this, dancing on your grave, laughing at you because you were so joe public.

But you might be right, and I think a lot of the guys back up some of that.

If you want to go through the plays that I disagree with them on.

A lot of pros like Atlanta, I think that's a sharp side.

A lot of pros like Pittsburgh probably a sharp side again, I'm just on the opposite side of it.

Plenty of pros like the Vikings.

I don't get it.

Feels like they're kind of just been a number into just a bag.

I just don't trust JJ.

I don't get that one either.

Tons of pros I talked through, like Tennessee, on the other side of that one, the ones they agree with me on.

Shockingly, a lot of pros love the Chiefs.

I really thought that was gonna be pros on the Bills and the public would be on the Chiefs.

But plenty of guys I know back in the Chiefs series, it's there are Bills, betters, a lot of pros on the Bills.

But it's not all I thought it was gonna be.

You know, Chos Orthus pros and it's split on that game.

I mean a game I love.

Chad just never not gonna get there.

I guess I don't love it.

I don't want to say I love it because it's Geno Smith.

But the Raiders like that's tons of pros.

I know hammered that at plus three.

And a half.

I'm mad I didn't do anything with it because I just was like, can I just avoid this game.

I don't want to have.

Money on Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence.

It's down to minus two and a half now, I'm like, I might have to bet Trevor Lawrence.

I don't want to, though, because I just that game stinks to high heavens.

Tons of pros on Houston with us.

You know, I don't know how much you liked that game, but another game I thought was going to be very very public, heavy on the Broncos.

It's actually not like that, right, It's been pretty split.

Most bookmakers I've talked to they don't desperately need Houston there.

I thought that was going to be a big professional spot.

But you know, this week, it just seems like the pros, I know, they're taking these home dogs like the Giants, and I try to ask them why, and they're just playing the number like they really logical reasons on it other than this is what they do long term and it's a winner.

And I told you, I'm just scared about it because this has not been hitting like it used to these last couple of years, and we've talked about it, the discrepancy between having a quarterback you can trust on fourth down on these short fields with these kickoff rules, it's different, and these favorites were just hitting differently.

So yeah, we can dive into it, but really really.

Split up this week overall over the lot of the games, but the most part most pros I knew too, they're just all over these home dogs and they just love the numbers they're getting on these home dogs.

Yeah, I think that's a mistake.

Let's get into it.

Atlanta at New England, you mentioned it like the two players we were most concerned about not being available were Michael Pennix and Drake London, and I think that's part of why this number shot up.

Don't forget on Sunday this line was three and a half, shot up to five and a half, actually got up to six at some point on Wednesday.

But there is news out of Atlanta.

Raheem Morris did say he was feeling really good about Michael Pennix.

It looks like Drake London also is on the road to playing and if those two guys are playing then it's a different conversation, and all of a sudden, we're talking about a new England team that is to me highly overvalued because Drake May is just dropping bombs and now all of a sudden, everyone thinks he's sort of the second coming of Tom Brady and is racing up the charts in the MVP race.

But Atlanta offensively is very well rounded when it has all of its players available that the Patriots have had a hard time stopping.

The run by Jean Robinson can be a dominant presence.

You kind of need to take last week off the board as such a massive anomaly burned the tape Atlanta at five and a half.

I totally get why the wise guys like that play.

Explain to me your logic here if if, by the way, the expectation holds true and Penis and London are playing, Yeah.

I think everything you said is true that we've been saying it for weeks.

Though this Patriots team's overvalued Drake May.

It's I think one o their quarterback is done when he's done in history.

I think it was Drew Brees or something like that.

That's basically completing seventy five percent of their past is through eight weeks and have over two thousand yards.

And you know the difference between obviously him and Drew Brees is Drake Made is a great athlete.

He's got incredible legs that when it's not working for him throwing the ball, he uses that gets first downs.

And he's been a unicorn in that way for this Patriots team, right like he keeps them in drives that they really shouldn't be in because he uses his legs.

And then all the fifty fifty bucks I just said, he's complete seventy five percent of his passes.

These aren't checkdowns like Drew Brees was in that twenty eighteen.

This is guy's throwing thirty forty yards downfield and it's working.

It's all hitting.

So everything you're chaining about the regression is so true.

I just don't know if.

This is the spot to get in front of it because it is Penix and it is outdoor.

Like again, he's played two outdoor games this year.

Penis as a starter with guys healthy Carolina zero to thirty.

They didn't score a single point against Carolina, Okay, not a big deal.

Then they went to San.

Franc I know, but I'm saying like it's a fluke game, right, Those things happen like you can't take much away from them.

That's why I try to not hold too much against him.

In that game, he went to San Francisco, looked anemic, scored ten points against a defense with no Nick Bosta, no pass rush, and no Fred Warner in their first game.

Like made the four Nits defense look like a juggernaut without two all pros.

So, you know, ten points on the road there.

I just I'm worried about Pennix.

I just don't trust them yet.

Rather, i'd be at home indoors as a favorite.

I like him on the road as a dog.

I don't know if I can get there.

But everything Shat's saying is so true.

This is an incredible spot for the Falcons trend wise, Like there's a ton of trends Patriots are based on this insane five game ats streak.

You want to fade those type of teams, especially young teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year.

They tend to struggle in this exact spot.

So I get why you're doing it.

I just I haven't bet the Falcons.

I just I'm scared off of it.

I'm probably just gonnad up with the Patriots on the money line on Robin, even though you're so right, like it's it's a spot they should lose.

But I think between the vrabel playing this young quarterback on the road, the way Drick May has been playing, I don't know.

I just can't.

I can't.

I can't get there on this Falcus, even though you're right it's an inflated number.

Well, look, this is always a challenge, and I think we have a similar challenge with the Colts and the Steelers.

When are you fading the team that is riding so high?

When do you get off that roller coaster because you know it's going to start to go down again.

It doesn't just keep going up.

Trying to time that is the hardest part of some of this.

So we're putting a pin in Atlanta, New England.

Let's we'll end up talking about it on Sunday because we might have a hard time finding five.

And this is going to be one where I think we're going.

To get I have five.

I love I just you don't.

You just don't like them.

Honestly, That's that's the point of the game.

My friend.

We got to find five that we both love.

Chargers minus eight and a half at Tennessee.

Uh, interesting game.

We talked about loving the Chargers on Tuesday.

That's when it was it nine and a half.

Now it's moved even more.

You mentioned off the top sharp calls, the wise guys loving Tennessee.

I don't know what anyone's seeing with Tennessee.

Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday.

This team has a very hard time looking like a professional football team.

I bet the Chargers at eight and a half.

I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value is on the Titans other than they're at eight and a half home home point eight and a half point home dog because the Chargers.

They should crush in this game if they play like the Chargers can play.

Yeah, and a lot of it.

I think it's just what we talk about every week, Like certain pros and certain groups.

They're just playing the lulls of averages like cheps.

When we heard these team can't keep winning forever.

Titans can't keep losing forever, can they?

I think they can, Like you just talked about it, You're missing key guys here.

I can't state that enough.

And you know it's a unique spot too with this Chargers team coming off kind of a mini buy, right, I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world justin Herbert, who couldn't stand being in front of the camera is now it feels like every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend and it's like I love it, Like, finally.

Herbert's being a QB one.

What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that embracing it, like and the moxy of it.

Now I think too the season he's having.

You know, people are loving Herbert right, He's in the top what five We talked about the MVP betting right now, He's just way up there.

And it's the stats, right the two thousand yards, he's like got a ton of passing yards.

And when I really dove into this one, I kind of really thought to myself, what are I, me and Chad back in here with Horrorball on the road, Like, are there numbers going to back up us taking him as a big favorite here?

Because I want to see why the pros are fading horrible here, because to me, this is like an auto play Horrball big favorite against the team that can't stop the run, love their best run defender.

What is there to fear?

And even the numbers back it up.

Chad Harball, he's closed the favorite eleven times with the Chargers.

He's seven and four against the spread in those games.

If we're going just him as a road favorite, horriball.

Since he's been with the Chargers, they're ten and two against the spread as a road favorite against the spread.

That's crazy.

I can't get over that.

Now, let's factor in extended rest.

That's a big deal for the Chargers team.

They are a perfect five and oh five and oh against the spread and the spot with Horrball going from West coast to the East coast.

Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering.

I just it's under ten.

I can't avoid it.

And chatter on two huge chalk favorites, one in the Lines one of the Chargers.

I shockingly love them both.

Yeah, I'm not.

This is where you know the the changes in the NFL the past few years have really Retavock with how people look at these games and think about underdogs at home and big numbers and if you're not adjusting, look, we could get a bit on this game right, very possible.

We're gonna come out looking like fools in this game.

But you have to be throwing out a lot of the old theories because of the way people are going forward and fourth downs, because of the length at which they can kick a field goal, because of how bad some team's been playing, and the discrepancy and quarterback play has had a material difference on how these teams are covering the spreads the past couple of years, and so it's just getting harder and harder to cover a big number for some of these teams.

Also because because teams are going for it more, they're scoring more touchdowns, and that also makes it harder to cover a big number because you're coming back from further down.

So and just some teams are like, I'm trying to beat in people's heads here.

Some coaches they get their guys up for these type of road games, like coming from West to East used to be an old cool fade spot for professional betters, and with the cryotherapy, the airplanes and so it's whatever it is, it's just not that way anymore.

And even diving into horriball not including him with just the charges him in the NFL, his entire career, come from east to west.

He's fifteen to four as a favorite on the road against the spread and the spot.

He's been doing it for years with different quarterbacks, different teams.

He just seems like a guy that, like we talk about time, coaching matters, getting the guys up, getting their guys ready for an early start.

It doesn't affect his team.

So yeah, I'm shocked so much professional money is coming in and moving this number down to eight and a half.

But like you said, we'll take that value.

Well, you just mentioned the other game Minnesota at Detroit.

Detroit is a nine point favorite, hard rock eight and a half at a lot of other places.

I love it.

This was Chad's Troyce.

Tice.

Why are people getting excited about JJ McCarthy.

Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good and getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings.

The Lions are a dominant team.

They do not have close games.

If they have close games, it's games that they lose.

When they win, they win so freaking big and this is a classic spot for them to win so big, and I pointed this out on Tuesday.

It's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense.

This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year, bottom ten across the board in multiple advanced analytics stats like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be, and we've seen that over multiple weeks.

So I'm getting the Lions Jared Goff Dan Campbell in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks, who they may or may not have been keeping on the bench because they're kind of worried about how good he might be.

What's the debate here?

I don't want to hear.

Oh, well, it's the number guy, look at the teams, That's what I have to say.

Yeah, honestly though, it's I think a lot of these pros love JJ.

They got me to flip in the summer.

It must have been the summer heat.

But like I had zero view on Jjay, didn't really have any kind of read on them, and all some of these guys hyped them up, said he's gonna be the next second coming of Sam Darnold, and he been anything but right.

And this team this year, this fighting team, is what I thought they were gonna be.

Last year with San Donald though, it was gonna a ton of dysfunction, a nameless defense that just can't get after the quarterback.

But last year everything went their way, right, they got all these crazy turnover bounces, and this year it's not hitting the same.

And you know a couple of trends that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team.

The only one I could think of was, well, it's a Lions team, huge win against the Bucks and then a bye week, right, Usually a team with a big win like that and don't extended home reunt homestead, so you know ten to fifteen plus days in this exact spot.

This is again a lot of data.

They's seventy nine one hundred and four, so forty four percent against the spread in the spot.

So you could say, well, this isn't a great spot for the Lions.

Sam counter I have with that Chargers one.

It's about the coaching, Like there, I can't see Campbell letting the guys have a letdown here.

And okay, let's dive in the numbers with Campbell what he's been like with extended rest.

With this Lions team, they're fifteen to four against the spread, covering by him with seven points per game in this exact spot.

So I love it like I love the fact that Campbell gets his guys ready for these type of games, even when they're big favorites in this spot because because you know, it's been what you had three years now, the Lions haven't be getting respect from the books and they're still covering in this enter percent clip.

They've been big favorites in a lot of these spots and we've had to just bite the bullet and take it because we know it's a little bit of an inflated line.

But you know, to me, it's under another It's just like the Chargers under that key number of ten and eleven.

I'm gonna take it here like the new NFL.

I don't think the bookmakers some of these offenses, they've caught up to it.

And could me and Chack get burned in the first half and the Lions go over three on fourth downs and we're down ten to seven, Sure, but we still have the belief that we can get twenty eight points to the second half of this Lions team against ak You seem, like you said, just can't stop the run.

So love this patch up.

The Lions have them waivered.

Hearing a lot of noise from a lot of pros on s Vikings team.

But I think we're in agreement.

Think they're betting a number here, but this is the wrong game they'd be playing that type of game.

Yep, agree, totally agree.

We love the Lions here.

All right, Well, we got two games that we both agree on Carolina, two big favorites, two big favorites.

Jesus, what is happen It's going this year?

What has happened to us?

Carolina is a thirteen and a half point underdog on the road at the Green Bay Packers, and our question on Tuesday was would Bryce Young be starting?

He is?

I had to dig deep on this one.

Here's something that was interesting to me.

Carolina allows the fifth fewest plays per game, which equals a top ten success rate on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get big games early in a series.

The Packers rake twenty third in play per game.

They're very explosive, so we know they're going to be able to score points, but they do it while not getting a lot of long drives.

They don't have a lot of plays over the course of a game.

So you could argue with Bryce Young and a run defense that until this past week against the Bills had been trending upward, and the fact that they are very good in early down success rate, they might be able to limit the Packers scoring opportunities, which makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread.

Am I stretching?

Am I reaching?

Am I just trying to find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers, which I haven't done, by the way.

I'm just sort of laying out a theory on a really big number for a team that had been trending upward, and I think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what's happened the past couple of weeks.

You're h laers, I teel you bet this.

I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my bigger bets.

I'm simply, I mean, sounds stupid.

We are simply playing the number here the Packers, owen.

I mean.

Jordan loves specifically oh and four against the spread as a favorite of seven points or more, and we've seen it this season especially.

They just play the level of the competition, right, Like if you get them against a good team and all eyes are on them and they're in a big spot, it seems like their offense roles they put up a ton of points.

They keep the foot on the gas.

See this year, when the're playing against bad teams, they just don't press.

They're not trying to blow teams out and roll.

So it's a huge number.

I'll join you on it, especially the fact that you know the Panthers just got blown out, embarrassed their own right, this is tends to be a nice spot where team wants to bounce back.

And historically teams in the spot are sixty one percent against the spread losing by thirty points or more at home now on the road.

So trends like it.

But yeah, they're they're just other games I've bet into.

But I exactly, I know exactly where you're coming from.

We have to play this one.

But it's just tough for me to better confidently just because this Panthers team can get rolled here, run defense, if the things, if the Green Bay gets things rolling offensively like we saw with them against Pittsburgh.

Horrible matchup.

Then in fact, in the fact that it seems like Parson has kind of figured out that defense got more comfortable.

Not a great matchup for Panthers either, that both their tackles cannot stop Parsons if he wants to get to Bryce.

So it were really are playing the number here and trusting that the Packers just don't roll bad teams.

Well, we don't have to put it in, but it is.

It is gonna be a game where all of a sudden, it's not brass balls.

It might percolate as well.

I'm saying Sunday morning, if you're like, this is one of my two or three I need in, I'm not gonna fight you on because I'm gonna bet it, but I'm like, I hope Chack can.

Avoid this one.

Please.

It's definitely not.

It's it's definitely not like I already know the game where I'm most heavily invested, and this is not going to be one of those games.

I can guarantee you Indianapolis.

We both are so wish you washing about it.

We know it's the right play.

We know it's one hundred percent the right player.

I'm going to watch it on Sunday.

We're gonna be like, are you freaking kidding me that we'd not play this game.

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In Indiana, if you were someone you know as a gambling problem and wants help, called one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in the Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh is a three point underdog at home.

You like the Cults, I like the Steelers.

So we're at a stand still here.

The wise guys have come in on the Steelers as well from sharp calls.

I think there's some schematic issues.

I think there's on both sides.

By the way, I think the Steelers defense has been terrible.

I think they are primed to be completely cut up by Daniel Jones in the spot because they play a lot of single high safety, and that's a great way for Daniel Jones to find open receivers, which he's been doing.

He's been excellent against single high safety this year.

But the Colts also have injuries at both cornerback positions.

They are not very good covering tight ends, and Steelers are running tight end sets, you know, double tight end sets fifty percent of the time.

So last week we like Tomlin because he was a three and a half point dog at home coming off a bad loss in which his defense did not play well.

I love the false enthusiasm.

I'm gonna see if we can make what do you guys quit today?

Historically that still holds up right.

He's still the greatest coach in NFL history covering as a dog of three plus points.

Look the greatest of all time.

Look at your work.

Let's go mat Like we talked about the pros, they're all over Pittsburgh, especially at.

The plus three and a half.

That's any guy I talked to, it's not Pittsburgh plus three, it's the three and a half hopping on that.

It's a key number.

Like you said, anybody can look.

All the trends love Tomlin and this execs spot like a blowout loss at home the week before.

Now he's a home dog again against the team well above five hundred.

This is usually a smash spot.

I agree with you, but a lot of those Tomlin stats are old, and I'm trying to adjust to that because it's just it's a new age met and we've been betting that way.

We have a winning record this year, even though it's a chalky year in history, because we've leaned into it where it's like certain games, certain matchups.

I know exactly what you're saying and talking about, Like Daniel Jones, he's been due for a letdown game.

Can you know Jonathan Taylor get muddy down in a sloppy field outdoors?

Like is there a path for this Pittsburgh team to win and pull off this upset?

Of course, like this Colts team.

That's what's so.

Funny everyone putting them number one in their power ratings.

It's like the stupidest exercise in all of the NFL.

Well yeah, I mean, I mean we get to the next game.

I had a thought, by the way, but it's just like.

What are we doing here?

And like what world would the Colts be favored over the Chiefs at a neutral field, let alone even this Ravens team.

We have all these questions about if it's the playoffs and Lamar's going, It's just none of it made sense.

Like this cold team has a ton of holes like you're saying.

And another team where they're on an amazing ats streak like we always say, they tend to have let down games.

No one like we're talking about no one goes fifteen and three against the spread or fourteen and two like to start the year against what It just doesn't happen.

So maybe I won't force us to take the Colts.

I'm just I'm dugging on this team where I love the way they're playing, the way the offense schemes, Like all these teams are giving problems to this Pittsburgh team.

They've not faced an offense like this Colts team.

This is the best offense by far they face.

I mean Green Bay as good as they made them look, that's not like a Juggernan offense.

They had not been rolling, they had been inconsistent these last couple weeks.

They got right in that second half against his bad Pittsburgh defense.

So I just I'm trying to get there.

I really am with you, Check, because I think you're in the right here being on the Pittsburgh side.

I just I can't do it.

I'm very public here with the because again, no pros are on this Colts team, all the pros around Pittsburgh, especially the three and a half so very very trucky played by me.

But I just I trust the scheme for this Colts team, and I don't trust Rogers being consistent.

Still, Rodgers, he can put together a good quarter or two for you, but he hasn't put a complete four quarter game in my opinion, yet this season.

So yeah, I like where you're at.

While you're at there, maybe you can avoid this one for the contest.

But yeah, we're split.

I'm on Colt's minus three.

You're probably gonna be on Pittsburgh plus three and a half.

Yep, I think that's a completely accurate assessment.

It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squashing greats.

A game that we both like, Denver at Houston.

Houston is a one and a half point favorite right now, Simon, this is going to be our brass Balls bet of the week, presented by hard Rock Bet.

You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.

It's been sitting at minus one and a half all week.

It's starting to trend towards to remember, everybody, Sunday night, we're doing early leans for week nine.

We identified the Texans at plus one and a half as a game we were going to be playing.

I know we both bet it at plus one and a half.

We even said on Tuesday still liked it at Texans minus one and a half.

Christian Kirk receiver for the Texans likely back Nicocollins is potentially back.

That are waiting on news that he could clear the concussion protocol, but he was limited in practice on Wednesday, so they are hopeful, and against a team that's missing pass certained, so that could be an even bigger advantage as to why we like the Texans than them getting back any players because the Bronco's pressure depends on being able to bring extra players, at least extra player because Pascertain can handle half of the field by himself.

If he's not playing, that changes everything defensively for the Broncos.

Sean Payton even admitted like that is just a massive change for us that we're going to have to manage.

You can't just do the same scheme that they were doing.

He said that in pres compas earlier this week.

So we're still on Houston minus one and a half.

And as good as Denver has been, I think we're both in agreement.

We've had major questions this year about bow Knicks and him being the quarterback in this league.

For after a year of teams having tape on him, you've seen teams have made adjustments, and you know, even I want to give him credit because the hardest thing to do is go off script right after the script is done in the second half, teams kind of know what you're gonna do and they've adjusted to you.

He's actually performed really well bo.

Next this year, Like he's really like that second half against the Eagles really impressive.

Obviously second half or just I should say, fourth quarter against the Giants.

Something we'd never seen before.

Two passing touchdown, two rushing touchdowns.

But I I've talked about it a little bit coming of the year.

I really like betting bow as a favorite like we did last week, and I really like to fade him as a dog like he just whatever it's been in his career.

Whenever the line's under three or less, he's five and six straight up.

But as a dog, he's four and seven against the spread.

So you know, last year what was he eight to oh, nine to zero as a favorite?

Was you only could really get him when he was a dog.

And if you go back and look, it's because when he's playing really good teams, he struggles and when he faces really good defenses, he seems to struggle.

So as much as we have to rely on CJ.

Here, and it's a little worrying some right, this is gonna be the best pass for us the Texans have faced all year, no doubt about it.

I think this is gonna be a great match for this Texas defense.

I think they're gonna get away with a bunch here and to me, that secondary of this Denver team, they can be passed on downfield.

And you saw last week when CJ.

Gets going his downfield throws.

They look in rhythm.

That's how they can beat you, right, getting you really spread out.

So another game where I was looking for reasons to maybe get off Houston because it feels like I've been riding him a little bit here and they've been cashing for me.

But it's another great match for them.

And you know, we'll talk about we can talk maybe about the fort Ninitars game, but basically this Houston team, their defense played like thirty snaps like their offense.

I think they played seventy five or seventy six snaps against that forty nine Ers defense.

Historically really good defense like defenses like them.

They're giving up like less than twenty points per game.

When they play a following game where they played less than forty snaps.

It's been really beneficial for that defense, right, It's like a mini buy for them.

So I like the spot of this Houston team being semi arrested because they had such an easy matchup the previous weekend.

Just the fact that Denver feels a little overvalued.

People are still feels like they're looking at their records, right, You're still looking at the Euston team that and the public GUYE is not that good.

I mean it was just what two weeks ago they had one win and they had I think it was four loss or five losses.

So I think it's another spot for them to keep cruising.

And yeah, really banking here on this defense.

Honestly, just like last week, it's forty nine ers, like, Yeah, I think we're both in agree.

We don't really trust Houston's offense, but this defense, you know, between Will Anderson and in the secondary, it's just a really, really great defense Houston has this year.

Yeah, that's what's interesting to me.

And you're right, by the way, the Texans last week had seventy five plays on offense and only forty four plays on defense, so you know, a good twenty five percent less than what a team would normally play if most teams get about twenty get about sixty snaps.

So on defense, I feel like the defense is what's being forgotten in this conversation for the Texans.

Everyone is always so focused on CJ.

Stroud and his struggles and that he hasn't been playing as well and that he's missing throws.

And last week was a good game for CJ.

Because they were consistent, They did have a lot of long drives.

He was converting for the most part.

But people forget how good this defense is and it's better than the Broncos defense, and I don't know if that's being discussed as much like the Houston Texans defense is on pace to set multiple NFL records over the course of a season for how they're playing.

So that's the reason why I like it.

It's they're missing Sir ten on defense for the Broncos, and the Texans defense is freaking awesome, and I feel like it's being slept on.

Love it, you know what you don't love, which I do.

Jacksonville Jaguars minus two and a half, minus one twenty at hard Rock, so most places, it's minus three at the Las Vegas Raiders.

You say this is square, you say it's a trap.

I say it's obvious.

And this is even with Max Crosby expected to play.

He did not practice on Wednesday, made me limited on Friday back injury.

He's the only weapon that would scare me as a uh that should scare the Jaguars on offense because the real question here is about Gino brock Bauers will be back, Can Ginos be can Gino be so much much better with brock ba hours that it will allow the Raiders to be offensively competent because I do think both teams are going to have to score a crap load of points in this game.

Yeah, it's again a game two three years ago.

I would be fighting you on taking a huge stan.

I got no interest in doing that with this game here, like I will put my energy elsewhere.

But I'm glad the professionals backed me up, like clearly, like they the money came out.

Yeah, totally.

The Raiders three and a half apparently was a gift.

I'm kind of mad I missed it.

But it's like I just was like, Okay, maybe this will get to five or six, like let this keep running, and it didn't.

They hammered it like this now Mice two and a half, I could be talking into it, honestly, even though I know for a million reasons the wrong bet the wrong side.

You're betting Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite, and he's beloved by public money.

I mean, just every book maker I talked to, all different books it's all JAG's money, never any amount of it.

And what Chad just said it's for good reason, Like if there's no Max Crosby, what is the fear Trevor Lawrence who's giving him issues that day?

The only thing you can hang on is this will be Geno Smith finds it and it's a shootout right, thirty four to thirty one, last team as the ball wins it.

So it's a crazy line, like I just can't give the way the books are praising it.

I took some on the over just in case there is no Max Crosby.

The total is forty four and a half, Like, okay, I'll bite on that, but you could talk to me to probably come Sunday.

I just my whole job.

He was trying to protect people and just get them the insight out here, and it's like I knew the pros would beyond this.

I was trying to protect you and them.

Even though I hate this.

I do not want to have a plant Life flag and stand tall on the raiders in Geno Smith, but I just every inch of my body, just like you are with Pittsburgh.

It feels like that's the wrong thing to do.

But when I'm fading Pittsburgh, I'm fading him with the number one offense and Daniel Jones and that juggernaut of a Colts offense.

I can't feel.

Confident in the same with Trevor Lawrence, who just never ending amount lets it's down going back, not that you have a horseship your ass JAD.

I cannot believe we covered that Jags Chiefs game, like now that we're three weeks out, like this Chiefs team has been absolute incredible and it's like.

Oh, that was a miracle, a miracle cover.

So that's maybe my biggest issues.

I just can't get over.

This Jags team still is not the type of team that deserves the amount of respect they're getting right now.

But like we said, this is really you betting about how bad this Raiders team is, how bad Gino has been, and you're getting a good number now, especially in my two and a half at a hard rock, So again, I'm not gonna be a hard time.

I just was at the three because it was like, what are we doing here?

We're just gonna walk into all these traps.

But maybe the Lions moved so much we got the best of the number here in the pros, they got the best of the number of three and a half.

Schematically, I like the fact that the Raiders don't know how to cover that their defensive backfield is just so bad and allowing the highest completion rate for quarterbacks in the NFL.

And so it's also to me more than Trevor Lawrence, it's a bet on Liam Cohane.

I like Liam Cohne.

I think he's a good coach, and I think he'll do more over the bye week to scheme up a win and make things good for Trevor Lawrence.

Then I have faith in Pete Carroll and what he can do with just a depleted talents.

And I'll give the one trend.

We all know the one trend what's going to be.

It's basically a team with a win percentage below forty percent a game after the game they just lost by thirty plus points ninety six, sixty eight and four against the spread, so fifty nine percent since two thousand and three.

This season, those teams in this exact spot, they're four and one against the spread.

So again it's a Raiders spot.

We know that.

But my whole point to agree with Chat is that made the lines move so much at this point it is a good Jack sign.

But that's just I knew there was gonna something of a trender for that, because it's just like, man, why do I want to bet this Raiders scene?

There must be a reason, but I hate it, and I'm glad it's moved so much.

I can maybe avoid it.

I don't know if Check can avoid it now he loves his jackside.

Oh no, I already bet the Jags and minus three.

Oh God, we'll get the two and a half.

You've at least got a good number now.

I definitely bet the Jags and minus three Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo.

This was Simon says when it was one and a half.

It's moved towards two at a lot of places, but when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills.

No Isaiah Pacheco win this game for the Chiefs, but no Wad Oliver for the Bills.

Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs.

I'm gonna like back in Mahomes as a short fit just about any scenario.

I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against the depleted defense.

I know that the Chiefs are riding high.

I know they've been covering, but I think there's a difference between a Cults riding high and covering and a Chiefs riding high and covering.

And I know you're with me on this.

I don't think we're buyers on the Bills defense.

And that's the biggest problem to me.

Yeah, not a buyer and the Bill's defense, and I just I'm not a buyer in josh a on right now, Like I just something seems off with them.

I talked about it going into the draft process.

The number one guy I trast trust for wide receiver evaluation is Steve Smith.

He's he does not pull punches when he breaks down this buffalo receiving corps like Kean Coleman, he says he shouldn't even be in the league, like this guy I can't get separation, doesn't run, Chris Broutes, doesn't help Josh Allen, Josh Allenson scramble mode, which Shakir you know he's been a great receiver for that because he does that for them.

So that's allowing twenty points reviewer.

So it's happened twenty eight times in his career, he is twenty three and five straight up against those teams, twenty two and five ats against those type of teams.

That's what makes him superman.

That's why he's the MVP of the league.

Last year, Josh Allen, he faces his dominant defense, it didn't matter.

He's there's no scheme to stop him right now.

Just feels like his receivers himself or beating themselves.

He just doesn't look comfortable.

His throws aren't great.

He doesn't make the right reads either, like he just locks into guys, and when he's in scramble mode, doesn't feel like his receivers are helping him out either.

So you know, just going back to the data too, him being a home dog, super rare.

Like I look through it.

It's only happened about five times, and he's won every time.

The only one loss was too Momes, So we know the deal.

Like you said, the resistance is that too.

A bunch of books did hit two and a half.

A ton of money came in, A ton of money came in on this bills team shocked had held it too.

I thought it would go back down at one and a half, So that's what I keep telling people it is split.

The Pros are split down the middle here, and like me, I've taken a large position on this Chiefs team.

I really like it.

I know some guys out of their way, they've taken really large position on this Bill, especially now they've gotten the two and a half.

So I love these type of games, right, It's gonna be one in the sports books, a lot of yell, a lot of back and forth.

I just think one team and the Chiefs, like Schad said, Pachecko's a big injury, there's no doubt about it, but Pachecko still has not been right since coming back from his injuries, still os last two years.

And the flip side, I just think defensively, offensively, all feels like it's clicking for.

This Chiefs team.

If they feel like a totally different team than what they were the started season, just because they've gotten so healthy, the young defense, they're playing in rhythm with spacks, defensive calls.

So I love it.

It's a true test here for this Chiefs defense.

And on the flip side, Mahomes in this offense, they should have no problem against this Bill's defense, like this is a great matchup for them.

So it really is.

Once again, we all know Cook top five running back, he's a game changer.

I thinks Back takes him away and puts it all on Josh Allen because Josh Allen, like I said, he's just struggled this year.

He's not been I know they have him as like a top three guy in the MVP voting.

That's super fraudulent to me.

He's had a very easy schedule.

He's just not playing at the level expecting to play out.

So I love this is a true test for him, and shockingly game they kind of need to keep up with his Patriots team in their division in a game, the Chiefs need to keep up with Denver in their own division.

So I love it that both these teams are semi desperate and all the history behind this matchup.

So I am glad you're in sync with me on this Chiefs team because this is that type of game where I could see why you would be on the bill.

So it feels good at least we're in sync and well up to three games now that we like to put in so we make them stack.

We're getting there.

You may really good point about the playoffs versus the regular season.

This is a playoff game.

Yeah, right.

The Chiefs are five and three, the Bills are five and two.

The Bills are tied a top the AFC East with the.

Patriots behind a half a game.

They're right, they're behind half a game.

The Chiefs are five and three, the Broncos are six and two.

So this is a game that, over the course of the season is going to have a huge impact on playoff seedings.

If the Chiefs continue to play as well as they've been playing, could be after this weekend, if what happens, if what we expect to happen happens, the Broncos are going to be have three losses.

So the Chiefs need to keep pace.

They can't go to five and four playing as well as they've been playing.

And to me, it actually is about that defense.

They've just been so in sink since that Jaguars game.

It's almost like they were so embarrassed in that Jaguars game and the way Trevor Lawrence was able to get into the end zone off of a botched play.

I think they've just been a different team.

So hopefully that continues to be the case this But.

Again I don't put on the defense like to me, they're two of their worst losses this year, the Eagles and that Jags game.

I think like they should.

I think he does himself.

Mahomes puts on himself those two pick sixes.

Yep, again red zone picks sixes there.

Even even Mahomes is human enough that that that he can't bounce back from.

This type of scenario.

So yeah, it's it is interesting, like they could, like you just said, their record could be totally different if Mahomes didn't throw those two pick sixes in there when he's about to score a touchdowns.

So, like we said, it's Philly God Chiefs teams still little undervalued here, we're getting a good number on them.

I put in these last two games, which happened to be the primetime games, because I think we disagree.

Yamahama, It's fright night.

Seattle at Washington.

Washington was at three and a half.

It's down to three commanders.

I like the Commanders three and a half.

I like at three.

I'm sorry of off it, but at three and a half, I liked the Commanders, and that's where the money has taken it.

Yeah, Arizona at Dallas, I like Dallas at two and a half.

I think you like Arizona.

The Cowboys are pro football's glamourgy, dynamic, progressive and spectacular.

Again like Arizona, it's not a I'm not going to fight you on if you if Sunday morning you want to put Dallas and it's my two and a half, I'm there.

Whether you want to hear some Dax stats, I got pat stats for data.

Do you want to share fantastic, Well, quickly I'll do.

I just thought this was interesting about Sam Darnold, Like I feel like we do give him loving some of his flowers, but I just thought it was interesting that going back even at twenty twenty when he was before he became the same darn we know and love.

Now he's like incredible off bye weeks.

Like it's it's really wild when you go back and look at his stats.

He averages twenty seven point five points per game after bye weeks, So it's I just thought that was nique because it's not just a fluke from like last year with the Vikings, it's all throughout his career.

Whatever that extent of prep is, he does really get really well, and we know this commander's defense is atrocious.

I mean, they are horrible.

And that's why, like I'm I am totally understanding of why you're on Washington you like them because like same with Pittsburgh.

So all these games we're talking about here, you're playing a number in a situation where this is going to be a heavily public side in the Seahawks on the road in a primetime game.

Historically it probably would be a good spot for the Commanders.

But you got a bum knee and Jane Daniels playing against a ferocious defense in Seattle that travels really well, and you're just taking away Terry McLaurin again, Like I mean, you saw him in that Chiefs game.

He was the only one doing anything like Deebo.

He already looks like it's week seventeen on those legs.

He's just not running like he was in those first two three weeks.

So I just I get what you're doing here.

You're playing the number, and it's the professional side.

The pros are on this, Like I said, the public, it's a noow.

They're just like me with the Colts, is a very public side of me taking the Seahawks here.

But once again, I'm backing what I think.

Is a really consistent good offense and rhythm, and those Sam Donald stats can be a peace of mind.

It doesn't seem like he has letdowns because this is a letdown spot for Seattle.

Like we talked about trap spots, this is the definition of a trap spot.

So that's those are just some stats I whant to give out.

So yeah, we're obviously on the opposite sides with that one.

Let's let's go to the Cowboys game, because I do have some great Dak stats.

You're You're probably right here with your early read, and I'm probably missing it.

I'm probably overvaluing the effect the Cardinals.

All their games are so close.

This does seem like the type of game where Dak could open it up and beat up on this team.

Uh, you know it's a prime time game, right, But I mean you talked about it.

It's it really is a you're betting on Dak and nothing else when you bet this team.

So I'll give some great Dak stats about him, just in these night games.

He's twenty nine to fifteen and won his career in night games twenty six and eighteen ATS and night games that's two and oh this season as well.

People probably remember covered against that Eagles Week one, and Packers is a guy that you know.

Since twenty twenty one in night games, he's fourteen and seven against the spread.

And so like, Dak shows up in primetime games and plays well, we've seen that consistently.

And you know, when they're playing these night games since twenty twenty at home, Dak's.

Perfect as a favorite.

He's a perfect thirteen.

And oh, beating his opponents by almost nineteen points per game in the spot.

So like, there's a lot of stats to love with Dak playing in these prime time night games.

And maybe I am over rallying this Cardinals team, Like I said that they play all these close games, they are due to get blown out by somebody.

Like the way they've been in all these games, how much longer can it go off for?

They're just they're not that good of a team, like we've talked about.

And you know it's a number now that's under three.

At three, I was, okay, I could get there with Arizona.

I'll take that, But now you're down to the key number of two and a half.

Like I said, if you want to talk to me, in to it.

After I've seen all those stats, about Dak and these exact performances in these X spots.

It's like, all right, I won't fight it, I'll join chat, I guess, but I don't feel good about it.

Well, look, I think we're agreed on the Chargers minus eight and a half, the Lions minus eight and a half, the Chiefs minus two, and Houston minus one and a half.

So jesus, how do we end up loving and agreeing on four favorites?

We're flipping all the dogs, like the dogs you like, I don't and the dogs I like you don't.

That's right, It's just a weird won keeper, right who So who else could be the fifth?

Do you know what I mean?

Yeah, I think we'll have a we'll fight about it Sunday morning about getting that one lesson there, because like there's always a team one or.

Two that pop up over the weekend.

I end up loving more than I did today because I'm around different people and they're giving me different perspective and give me different numbers to look at.

I did.

I mean again, I hate it, but like it's a pro spot.

That Giant spot's a very professional spot.

Like I said that four nine ers team played whatever you said?

It was sixty six naps on defense.

Now they're all five.

Yeah, back to back road.

Game against a quarterback that scrambles and you have no pass rush.

The Giants are so beat up they have they're already.

I don't want to bet it.

I'm just saying, like, that's what we're talking about though.

That's when you dive in the numbers, and that's just you're betting the number because it's a it is a spot, it's a professional spot.

So we'll see two Bears if there's no Flaco.

Flaco is banged up.

Yeah, it's still interesting two and a half.

I could get there on the Bears, and I couldn't.

It's an interesting spot for them as well.

So there's there's some games I think we'll be able to pop them.

But like you said, right now.

We're just you know, and it happens every week.

We've been very good this year, being kind of in sync finally a little bit split on the chalk and the dogs we like, and that's a lot of pros this week.

It's that way.

It's just the season just throwing you for a loop.

It's just not going the way it usually goes with these dogs.

So I'm just trying to be careful.

That's why I like that we're so chalk heavy.

The chalk it's been hitting for us again last week are only two losses of dogs, so it's just.

We're trying to adjust.

But it's hard, man, It is hard to do after all these years of betting dogs.

All right, So I'll recap sort of where we stand at the end.

But Simon's biggest bets, pull.

Up close pints and be a man.

Chiefs definitely haven't invested in Houston, taking a pretty big position on them as well, and shock only Lines and Chargers like we're about to do the money line, Robin, I have a heavy amount of money invested in those two money lines together.

Well, look, I'm glad to see it because those are the four games that I have pinpointed other than the Jags from the beginning.

So I mean, I guess I have the Jags.

I did not pinpoint the Chargers until yesterday when it got date and a half.

But yeah, I would say those four were giving out.

Houston is my least confident one, just because I still have.

Huh.

I I'm surprised because I actually feel almost more confident about that than I do.

The Chargers, I don't.

I love those hardball stats got me fired up.

He just he fift him and being fifteen to four on East coast trips on extended rest is like insane.

All right, let's talk about some of these the money line favorite parlay.

Why not Kansas City, Houston, Lions, Chargers and one more Rams Packers.

No, because they're big.

Let's let's uh, let's get the juice done a little bit.

Let's throw in I mean you like you like Jacksonville Chad I minus one fifty.

Great, put it out that.

Or we could throw.

In Dallas minus one forty five.

I don't I like that.

I think I like Dallas more than I like Fuck I hate them both kind of Actually, I don't think about it.

Those are two good options, because again, you're not with me on the Colts, which I think they're Yeah, they're minus one seventy so the odds aren't as good either.

Let's go with Jacksonville, Okay, money line round robin favorites Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville, the Dogs.

My dog blocks.

Your dog, Your dog blocks.

Mon dog, Steelers, Steelers, put your your Lanta Falcons in there.

Falcons.

It's kind of force them in just just because I just there's not a lot of dogs I like this week.

But Josh Allen plus one fifteen commanders, that would be you.

They're plus one forty, so that is good value.

Prime time game.

Jayden Daniels off a blowout.

I know it, like I know all the things you're saying.

But it's also a great spot historically.

It's just going to be a good spot.

It is, but it's again, it's a bumney quarterback out rhythm without a number one receiver, it's not that great.

We're just playing the numbers.

And play sometimes that's what you do.

It is, but it's that's what I'm trying to bring some logic to it because I just can't take all these home dogs.

It's just not like it used to be.

They're not all going to be hitting like this.

But what do we have for.

We have three Pittsburgh Atlanta Buffalo.

Giants, Giants plus one twenty five.

I'll do it.

And then what do you think about since you plus one thirty five?

Yeah, because I'm not going to bed till Sunday.

A way flat goes out.

We can switch it out and put in, put in your commanders.

I mean you could also do Denver.

Denver.

Yeah, they are technically plus one ten.

That's fair.

Alright, let's do Denver.

All right.

So the underdog parlay Pittsburgh, Atlantic, Atlanta, Buffalo Giants, Denver.

The favorites parlay, Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville.

First Survivor.

I can't believe I'm doing it, but I got to use it on taking chargers.

Okay, chargers be hilarious.

If I've seen.

Year Survivor, I'm so out of it.

All right, sharp versus square?

Simon, who are you going with?

Well?

You won last week, didn't you?

We both?

I did you at Pittsburgh?

I had I had the New York Jets.

Let's see brass balls.

We chose Houston, Chad choice was Detroit, Simon says, was Kansas City?

You know what?

Jacksonville Jaguars.

Thank God, give me the Chargers.

I was hoping you wouldn't take the Chargers.

I could.

Yeah, give me the Chargers.

Look at us.

A couple of squares, not sharper square square vers.

Square, the square versus square?

All right, So the games we're pretty locked in on for Sunday Chargers minus eight and a half, Kansas City minus two, the Texans minus one and a half, and Detroit minus eight and a half, and we'll have a decision to make for the final five on Sunday.

This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday morning.

You're gonna get to eat drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon, and we are definitely going to panic and make human decisions that we regret the rest of the day.

We'll be back on Shrepper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.

To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.

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Until next time, I Love you.