Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Milman.

I am joined as always by my still bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter.

Hello, Simon Shot.

How are we doing?

Brother?

We are freaking great.

You and I are still BFFs.

I don't want anyone worried about if people were asking me questions.

People were concerned.

Some people loved when it got spicy on Tuesday.

I enjoyed it too.

I feel like it's going to make it for a more interesting Thursday.

As we are on the Thursday week six episode trying to narrow down our options on our quest for our five favorite picks, and if Tuesday show was any indication, it might be tougher to narrow it down on our journey than usual.

A couple quick reminders.

Number One, we tease this on Sunday.

Thanks to our wonderful benefactors at hard Rock bet Or, we are going to be relaunching our free to play five games against the spread pick them contests that we've done for the past couple of years.

A lot of our old head listeners know what this is.

But you guys get to compete against me and Simon in a free to play pick them contest that will be prizing from hard Rock Bet.

We're going to announce the ability to sign up next week.

It's a blast and we're excited to participate and join.

Everybody who's going to sign up to compete against me and Simon will give up all the details starting next week.

Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods.

Let's get this thing going.

It's time for sharp calls, half.

Answer this boat all right, rain range, telephone range.

Somebody said, maybe you do the.

Yeah, busy busy week.

I feel like we did pretty good though giving out what side we thargeting professional side, and it's it's pretty much gone that way.

We've already seen Panthers line moved, so that was a regret should I made.

Simon says, I thought it was gonna maybe get the four.

That's why I didn't.

The three and a halfs are basically gone.

There's pretty much just three's out now on Carolina.

I got a lot of calls about that one, A lot of love for the Jags, a lot of love for the Colts, uh, which again both sides.

It feels like that we were on from the get go Pittsburgh surprisingly, and I do think it was about the number right, like a show, and that number was four.

I know a lot of guys are grabbed the four, four and a half and even the five.

So if people are wondering what side the pros around, I think they're joining the public on that side.

I think they really liked the Pittsburgh in that exact spot, which is a game we can go through.

I got a lot of fun numbers on it, didn't talk much about it.

Still trying to figure out it.

H forty nine ers.

I know a lot of pros that love the forty nine ers on the spot.

They love the number, they love this matchup for them, and a lot of what they say is true.

The Bucks are banged up, they do have injuries now to their secondary as well.

Like I get it, that's a game I guess we can go through.

I just total blind spot to me.

I just thought that was a Bucks number minus three, prety, Like, I don't think you practiced yesterday, so did not really interesting.

The pros are so heavy on this forty nine ers team, and that's always something that just sends the alarms off when it's like, what am I missing here?

Why do they love this number so much?

You know, it's it's a unique spot.

We talked about it briefly too, you know, we talked about how we liked the Bears.

I know a lot of pros.

They really like the Commanders.

They liked the number, they like the spot.

So that's one we can talk about.

The last one I think we knew was coming.

Chiefs all pros.

It's gonna be pros versus Joe's.

I know a couple pros that have taken positions on Detroit, but they're doing it when most I think pros have, which is their model has this as Detroit is a favorite, which I think most pros do and like.

To me, my push back to them is that should tell you something when everyone has the same number and it's way off in the books, like I said, are taking a ton of money and they're not budgeting here, so that number has come down like it was stuck in minus two and a half.

There are some one and a half's now popping up if you want to get the chief side.

But that just sounds like it's the pro side, and I'm not shocked by that.

I just thought there's gonna be more money in respect on this Detroit side for professional betters, and it just seems like they're going to trust the trends in the spot and back this Chiefs teamer.

So really really fun matchups to break down this week.

Yeah, I really want to get into that Bucks Niners game because you have been on the bus and I am shocked at all the action coming in on the Niners from professionals.

We're going to dig into all that and more.

We'll get to brass balls, biggest bets, all that kind of good stuff as we go through the show.

First, want to talk about Dallas at Carolina.

You liked it at three and a half.

We both bet it at three and a half.

This is I think where the slow burn anger began on Tuesday because I was not as committed to Carolina as you were.

The line has moved in that direction as I've done more research.

It obviously makes sense and we can see why the number has been moving in that direction.

Cowboys dead last in defensive DVOA.

They give up the most yards per attempt the most that number increase most yards per attempt meaning passing attempt.

That number increases against mobile qbs, which I would qualify Bryce Young as a mobile QB for his ability to move around in the pocket and keep his eyes down field.

Everything about Bryce Young has been improving the past couple of weeks, and we've talked about Dave Kanalis and how he's been able to make Bryce Young a better quarterback.

Also, more than likely they're getting back Shuba Hubbard.

Dallas still riddled with injuries.

Even if they hold up like they did against the Jets, the Panthers offense is more than capable of neutralizing all of the offensive capabilities that the Cowboys have when they're playing at home in Carolina.

Totally makes sense.

I've come to love this play.

I betted at three and a half it is now at three.

Yeah, like I said, should should have just made this one, Simon says.

I again, thought it was gonna come down, but didn't think could come down that quick.

The professionals came in on it, and yeah, I still love it, Still want people to bet it.

I hope people have bet it when it was three and a half.

We can start with all the Dax stats if we want, just because I have heard pushback from some pros and some people that why they are betting Dallas, and I said, well, you're lucky.

It's down to three now, so you've got even better of a number, which again the DAK members here pretty alarming.

We've already talked about Dak verst bad teams, and he burned us last week with it.

We know how dominant Dak is against bad teams, right, He's forty and thirteen straight up when he's playing against a team below five hundred, so seventy six percent, thirty three eighteen and two so sixty five percent against the spread.

He's you know, winning those games by nine point seven points per game.

So we've seen historically Dak does really well the exact spots.

And another one that jumped out.

You know Dak, you would think, okay, this is a back to back road game, how is he doing in these type of spots.

He's twelve and five against the spread, and in the first three months of the season he is nine to one against the spread.

So it's not ideal.

Like when you dive into those numbers.

It'say like, Okay, Dak performs well here.

But I do want to give out the stats we do like about Carolina and why I talked a little bit about it.

I just think they're a different team at home.

I know it's a crazy small sample.

We can go back to just Bryce's career, which he's dreadful on the road.

I don't know if we've seen the stat chat he is one in fifteen on the road straight up in his career.

I have not seen that.

Well, yeah, so that already should let you know that.

Okay, he just doesn't win road games.

So that could be our thing where we just stay away from him on the road.

I mean, obviously spread we can talk about, but never take them in our money line parlay that we love doing these underdogs.

But when he got consistently home games, so back to back home games in his career, he's four and one against the spread.

So again, very small sample, but that just shows in his career when he is back to back home games, he's comfortable, he does well, and the market still undervalues him.

He's averaging twenty six points per game in those matchups.

So again that's a big deal.

But chat he's talking about this is a historically bad Dallas defense, which another stat I loved, so since two thousand and three.

Again, this is how unique of a spot this is.

You have a defense and an offense in Dallas.

It's given up four hundred plus yards per game.

Again very unique.

So when you get six games in the season, these teams again that give up a shit ton of yards defensively, they're thirty nine, fifty against the spread, twenty six or forty against the spread in this exact spot.

So you see that they can score, but the market tends to favorite their offense, where what burns these people is the defense.

That's why when I look at that number, the hook did matter.

You wanted the three and a half because it feels like when I look at these numbers, it's telling me dak is going to win this game somehow.

But if you get the hook, it's a real live cover with this this Caroline team.

So again I don't mind getting the three.

It's the professional number you've seen.

It's all the money.

I mean, I talk to bookmakers, it's all Dallas.

So that is very smart professional money that I've hit these different books that have moved from three and a half to three, and it's holding there.

So if you want to be patient, if you missed the three and a half, there are still a couple out there if you can find it.

If not, I think if you wait, we'll see much more professional when it comes out.

I do see this getting back to three and a half because I just see the general public coming in so heavy on this cowboy side, where you know the numbers, the trends and stuff.

It backs up the love for Dak.

So I think you can be patient here and get this three and a half again again.

We talked about making this one of our bets today.

I'm not going to force it in just because we did miss the best number and I personally have only bet this three and a half, so I don't want to be given out the three on this Carolina side.

Right we talked about making it our brass balls better of the week.

We're not that stat about Dak against bad teams is somewhat concerning, but I do think it's a little bit mitigated because most of that has come when he had some semblance of a defense and this was just a better team.

And right now this defense is truly awful and You can look at that Jets game last week, and you can see if you squint, if you really hard, you could see how that game is much closer, Like the Jets just consistently give points away, like truly give touchdowns away, and so if you get beyond sort of the variance plays all of a sudden, it's a different game.

And this Cowboys team is really defensively so freaking bad.

I like Bryce in a shootout, I just do.

I think Bryce might be psychotic, like the way he is just unconscious about throwing the ball down the field.

They were down seventeen to nothing, and then at one point like he had thrown a pick, then he had thrown a pass it hit a camera guy in the head.

He's just laughing about it, like he's playing I think as well as he can play.

And I really like Canalis as a coach.

So we like the Panthers, but it's not gonna be our brass Balls bet of the week because we don't like the number as much, at least the one that we can share with our listeners and our viewers.

However, the LA Chargers are four point favorites at the Miami Dolphins.

This is going to be our brass balls better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet you know.

What it takes, brass balls.

We came on the air, we were talking about this, and you had one question, are we stepping in it?

And I completely think we are.

I was nervous about this one on Wednesday afternoon because the move had been against us.

We talked about it on Tuesday and both like the Chargers the mod the line had dropped from four and a half to four.

That's where I actually bet it.

Over the past twenty four hours in a lot of places outside of hard Rock, it's moved back up to four and a half.

So I feel, you know, a little bit better than we're on the La Chargers right now.

But man, we totally could be stepping in it because we're circumstantially betting the same scenario that we bet two weeks ago when the Chargers were going across the country and playing a team that is significantly worse on the East Coast where they're short run favorites.

Yeah.

Once again, if you think back to that game, think of all the things that had to go wrong for you not to cover that number.

So it's like, from what I heard and look at this, it's probably just the fact again it's too at home, so like when you really dive into it too at home, it's just different.

And this is tends to be the spot that professionals do back because he does win and play really well at home.

But I thought this was really about the travel, and maybe because people are like, well, the Charger are so banged up, and it is a brutal travel, right going from LA to Florida.

But you know, diving at Herbert's numbers, he's actually done pretty well in this exact spot.

He's thirteen and six against it against the spread in his career when he goes and plays in East Coast games, so you know he tends to not get frazzled in that way.

And early in the year, so September and October in his career when he goes East, he's twelve and six against the spread, so he's done well traveling.

I will say this, there are always some damning stabs about Herbert, and it's like, again, non ball knowers will put him in their top five, which is like the laziest take ever put in Herbert in your top five quarterbacks when you dive into how bad he's been in these one score games.

It is alarming.

This is a one score game line, Like, that's what this number is.

So you know, the last three seasons, the Chargers of the team one in ten when it's a one score game.

This year they're one on one, which is good.

But last year, so twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, Herbert was oh and nine Herbert oh and nine straight up in one score games.

That's as a quarterback.

That's a damn stat.

That's you like, you can try, people can put blame and always make up excuses, but it like that just shows at the end of these games.

If he's not blowing these teams out, we're dead on this bet.

That's the fear chat.

So I'm still on it.

I still like this spot.

I think defensively, this is a great bounce back spot for this Chargers team matchup wise, and we said the worry for us with the Chargers team is how they're going to handle a team with a good pass rush.

Miami doesn't have that, and they don't have a good secondary either, which I think we're We're able to pass the ball and even without his running backs, something about to push the ball downfield.

So I'm with you like this because we're just so uch dog betters and we always looking for opportunities to be at home dogs.

But this one, to me just feels like a little of too much of adjustment by the books.

Still think this number would be five and a half six.

They've downgraded this team way too much, in my opinion.

Is so I do think it's a nice bilo spot in the Chargers team.

And like we said, the fact that all this professional money is coming on Miami and it looks like public money, like you're looking at the splits at a lot different website.

I don't know, it makes me feel pretty good that we're on the side that no one loves in this Chargers team, which just going back just two weeks ago, they were the best team in football.

So I don't know, it's hard for me to get out of this one check because I just I like the number a lone.

I love this matchup for this Chargers team.

They usually dominate beat up on bad teams, and I just think that Giants game was a one off, just so much bad luck, and you saw last week once again a ton of bad luck against Washington.

Too much a reaction to them getting blown out twenty seven to ten.

Like we said, that number is just not true.

We both watched that game from start to finish.

That score does not indicate what that game was.

Great matchup for the Chargers.

The reasons why it's different than going into New York against the desperate Giants team is number one.

Two, it doesn't scramble the way Jackson Dart does and that was a huge factor in that game.

Number Two, the Dolphins have no choice but to play zone in coverage.

Justin Herbert eats up zone coverage.

Number three.

Their secondary, in addition to having to play zone twenty seventh and average depth of target allowed more than nine yards per play and average depth of target twenty fifth in yards per attempt allowed, their bottom five in just about every coverage category.

Meanwhile, Miami, we talked about the Chargers O line and struggling against pass rush.

The Dolphins' defensive line is twenty eighth in pressure defense, total is twenty eighth in pressure rate and bottom ten in total pressure.

So the things that have been challenging for the Chargers are not necessarily if you look at the numbers.

Challenges in this game, different teams, different situation, if you're saying he's zero to nine one score games.

The other day you brought up betting the aut lines on a couple of games.

Maybe we should just take a piece of the outline on this and like see if we're going, you know, Chargers minus eight and get it over one score.

It's more like, if this is if they're up fourteen to fourth, I'll feel confident.

If we're up ten in the fourth, our bet is we're dead.

We're dead dead.

So that that's like really what I was bringing up.

It's just like we, like you said, you gotta have them roll.

I don't.

I love the all lines in this I'm with you on it.

So I'm on the all lines in this game.

But it's just we need, we need the Chargers to roll, bounce back massively in this game, because it's that's what I like.

All the pros telling me why they like Miami, they were just like this has back door written all over and it's like I looked at those numbers, I go, maybe they're right.

Maybe they're right about the Chargers not closing these teams out, But historically just feels like the type of team the Chargers absolutely.

Roll Seattle Jacksonville.

Jacksonville is a one and a half point favorite.

You say the wise guys are on the Jacks.

I don't know that we'll make this into our contest, but it was a hot topic on Tuesday, you know, justin Julian Love, Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence all misspractice again on Wednesday.

I'm trying to figure out where the love is for the Jags.

Trevor Lawrence, we know is a liability.

This defense, as good as they've been enforcing turnovers, there there's going to be some regression here.

Sam Donold has been amazing so far this season.

This Seahawks defense can be as good as the Jaguars defense.

I don't love betting the short number anyways.

I'm just trying to figure out where the love.

Like, why there is so much professional love for the Jacks.

There shouldn't be that much professional love.

It should be it should be more of a debate.

Yeah, I would say this Jacks team is healthier than Seattle and that's all that's I mean, there are other things too like this, This Jacks team probably still being a little underrated the market.

People are really love the Seahawks team now because Sam Darnold had an incredible game against that Bucks team last week, so I get the confidence now.

But you know, even the trends you look at it the Seahawks.

The reason I like the Bucks so which last week is whatever it is McDonald as a coach, he's bad at home, but on the road they've been dominant when he's taken over his tenure there.

I think he's twelve and six against the spread on the road in his young career and just shows he gets his team up, he gets his defense up for these matchups on the road, which is huge, huge deal.

And I'm not shocked.

This is professional side, honestly, the jack side, because the public will be looking at this Seaxs team, Like I said, that was probably the best game of the week last week.

Like everyone watched that Seahawks Bucks game, and they didn't think they lost that game, right, They think the Bucks won it.

They got Baker, so they pretty much are crediting this team with a win.

On the flip side of the Jags, like we said, we feel very lucky that we had that cover in the win, knowing like you don't want to do it either.

No one wants put their money back on Trevor Lawrences experience.

So I think that's part of it where it's like you're getting a unique situation where people just don't want to bet this team.

They're undervaluid even though they're healthy, and you see it every week.

As bad as Trevor Lwrence has been, the defense has been getting better, and that run game is a legit threat, Like the Jags can run the ball, Like I couldn't believe that he had success against Bags because my view of that whole game with Stags is going to take away the run and make Trevor beat them, and it almost worked right, Like if they without that pick six, that's once again a totally different game.

So I'm with you, like I'm scared to do it, but it's like I feel like it's the right side.

I'm trying not everthink it.

Take the Jags take the number.

This Seahawks team, like we loved early in the year.

They'll get back to that once they get right and get healthy.

I just think this is this is too much ask for a defense is missing so many key pieces that you know they still haven't hit that yet, Like the Jags have not hit their stride det with Trevis Hunter and BTJ and that you know, passing attack.

So we'll see, like I get it, like you, you don't want to do it, I'm not gonna.

I'm probably gonna force it in on Sunday.

I just think it's really funny when all the pros like you have to bet this, and even though I'm like, fucking I don't want to bet the Jags again, so that I probably should be on it.

But it's like I'm with you.

I feel like I survived something on Monday, and I don't know if I want to go right back to it.

It's like we just got away with something we shouldn't.

You know, we shouldn't.

We shouldn't, but it's true.

Uh, Cleveland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is now five and a half.

We talked about it the other day.

You called it you're lazy as bet of the week.

Listen if you were, if folks were listening on Tuesday and paying attention, you could have had the Steelers of minus four.

So it's moved up a point and a half.

I mean five to five, five to six is still pretty much a dead number.

I wouldn't tell people you'd be crazy to bet it.

At five and a half.

But if one of the philosophies of betting is you got to get the best of the number, you're not getting them.

That's the number since this thing was at four on Tuesday.

I like it for the spot.

I like it because the Browns are coming back from the UK, a rookie playing in his first road game.

It's a difficult place to play.

You've got Alex high Smith coming back, You've got Cam Hayward, TJ.

Watt already there.

Alex Heigsmith being healthy to me is a game changer.

Plus Joey Porter Junior like this Steelers team is rested, and the greatest advantage the Browns have is their defensive line and their pass rush.

Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball, getting rid of the ball two point five to two seconds fastest in the NFL.

So if there's one thing that can mitigate a powerful pass rush from your defensive line, it's Aaron Rodgers, who knows how to get rid of the ball quickly, and as you noted, takes a dive.

So I'm more and more comfortable with the Steelers here.

Yeah, And I was trying to find anything I can that gave me more confidences to this thing because everything we said is true.

I feel like on the field and I really wanted to dive into the trends here and like shout out to our guy Evan Abrams just he had the exec tren that I was looking for, which is I feel like this is a Tomlin spot that we historically bet.

And that's why I was like, is this just being lazy?

But it's an early bye week for a coach that we see just he doesn't have that bye week letdown, Like that's the real thing of football.

Guys just aren't up for that game after the bye week.

Again, I was grasping at straws.

I was like, I don't even know if this is real.

I need to find some numbers that back it up.

And it is real.

So when he has a bye week, Basically he's won and covered five straight Tomlin since twenty twenty.

You could say that's not that big of deal, but to me, it is.

He's eight to zero since twenty seventeen sixty two against the spread.

That's that's a big deal to me, Like this is a guy that gets his team up ready for these type of matchups, let alone they're about to play a rookie quarterback coming off an international game, right y'all game to day, you ain't new to this no more.

Now you know what I mean, dominate this football game, and you can go even more into it.

It's like, Okay, how's he do early in the year because that again, this is a very early bye week.

So when I have an early bye week under Tomlin in his career, he's nine and one straight up, seven to three against the spread.

So when it's within the first eight games of the year he is on one, rate goes up even more.

He's nine to one.

So a lot of that stuff I really like.

I already liked it when I saw those type of trends.

It's like, okay, now this is an It was already gonna be in our money line run robin for favorites.

Now it's a no brainer smash spot for Tomlin.

Like this is a Tomlin spot after a bye week, And like Chad said, I just tint to go so lazy because it's like, who's betting Cleveland's side?

And I could not believe it had gotten down before.

And you know, we try to make sense of it.

What are these pros doing?

And I always talk about you have to be wary of the professional headfake where they'll bet a line to get to a number day one and they'll load up on that side.

And that's what I feel like.

Chad's talking about what happened.

Like a lot of fours were popped up across the books all jumped up to five five and a half after a lot of money came in.

So I still like it at five and a half.

I still think it's a fair number under six.

I just again, their running attack is so good at Cleveland.

That might be my only fear like because you can run the ball against this Pittsburgh team.

But I have to trust Tomlin to make adjustments during this bio week and then they getting these guys back healthy.

It's like, what is Tomlin do in this by week?

Yes, to attack their biggest weakness, which is the run.

Anyone has these numbers, they can see they've been awful.

I guess they run through the first four weeks.

So yeah, Ched, I'm really happy to see he's done so well after these bio weeks, and the trends back up our love for this Pittsburgh side because I'm not gonna lie.

There's a couple of games this week, Like we keep talking with these favorites, like the Chargers.

That's like these lines just feel off and they're priced wrong because last week the Dogs had their week, right, what were they nine to five?

Yeah?

Yeah, I get straight up something crazy like that.

So there's a couple of lines that pop like this, right, I can't believe I'm on a talk favorite like this once again.

But it's like it's just an undervalued lion.

It's still to me undervaluided.

Probably should be six, six and a half.

I don't think a five and a half is a trial number if you didn't.

Miss the four Simon, this is us growing, this is us for this week evolving in the marketplace.

We're not just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses.

We're going to take a look at favorites every once in a while because that's what the market dictates.

You can't just bet whatever you used to bet.

This This thing is changing dramatically before our eyes.

All right, Pittsburgh Steelers, the game that cause the biggest riff you and I have ever had the history of the podcast.

The New England Patriots three point favorites at the New Orleans Saints.

This was your Simon says.

When I disagreed and pushed back, you got very mad.

But I do realize that I listen back.

We did this right after revisiting the Cardinals debacle from Sunday, and then we played your rant about the Cardinals from Sunday, So I think you might have been triggered.

Kyler Murray's a loser.

Gannon's a loser.

That's a loser.

Organization.

Fold don't exist anymore tomorrow.

I hope I wake up tomorrow and they said, yep, thirty one teams NFL Arizona literally folded overnight.

Good let it be done.

At hard Rock.

The line has shifted.

The Saints are a flat three a lot of other places, that's still three and a half.

Clearly the wise guys, as you noted in sharp calls, are on the Saints.

Here.

I'm a little more trepidacious.

Like everyone keeps saying the Saints are better.

I think people are undervaluing the impact of Christian Gonzales on the return for the Patriots.

I get it's like it's not going to be a good side.

It's inflated against the Patriots because of what they did against the bills.

Everyone's talking about Drake Mays MVP, basically because there's no one left to talk about, right Like, you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes, you can't talk about Lamar Jackson, you can't talk about Josh Allen.

This week, Hey, let's talk about Drake May and So I totally totally get it.

I just don't know about these Saints.

Yeah, I left the record show.

I wasn't mad, I was annoyed.

Listen, we're humans.

We all have many flaws.

I have many flaws, and I am a crazy person.

Chad has many blind spots, and that's that's all.

We all have blind spots.

So peek behind the curtain.

Chad asked me for my favorite bet this week before the show.

Again, we're not live, this is only me and Chad.

I tell him I'm on the Saints.

Chad could have just simply said, oh, I like the Patriots.

Chats go in a minute rant about why the features are the right side, how he makes the number five or five and a half, and I'm just like this guy.

As soon as you get on the air, I'm going to bear you.

Steve, you can't read the room.

I'm a guy.

He thinks it's there.

The other thing, dude, I'm a dire Phillies fan.

I'm staring at zero and two and I forgot that, And I'm just like, does this guy really doing this before the show?

Because again, if it's on air, check and talk for five minutes about the Patriots.

I don't care.

That's for you people.

He's given me his own private show of something I do not want to hear after being up doing fourteen games.

So that's why I was just like annoyed.

I don't know if I was mad.

I was more annoyed, but yeah, I'm still in the Saints and it like my view of it was to get the number before it moved, because I was just like, Okay, the public will be on the Patriots here.

Will the pros join me on the Saint side?

Will they bet this down to three?

I feel like our Rocks only won that move, Like if you want the three and a half, there are so many out there, and yeah, I think I'll get back there.

Like I I talked to prose who are on the Patriots side, and yeah, Christian Zalaz is a big deal.

I don't think they realized that this Saints team is still better than people perceive.

And you know, even the numbers set, this team's actually not as bad.

Like defensively, I was shocked because that's what I want to look into.

It's like, Okay, their defense.

Yeah, they've had a soft schedule in some aspects, but they've actually played well.

Like that that Bill's game, they didn't just lay down and die like they stopped the run.

I feel like they were pretty solid in that game.

And you look at it, their ninth and EPA a game against their run.

So they're holding you know, in four out of the five games they played this year, they've held the number one running back to under seventy yards.

Okay, that's that's something to improven on, right Their their run defense is actually getting stops.

That's something I can hang my head on.

The Spencer Rattler part, though, is the part I can't get over.

I can't get over how good this kid's playing for someone that I totally viewed as a joke.

I was like, they're making the quarterbacks so they can tank and get a quarterback this season, and you look at the numbers and it's it's good.

And like even when Christian Zalas takes out the number one of a team that is a big deal, but they haven't really like Alive, who we all respect.

He was incredible at how to state he's he is their number one, but he's not their focal point of their offense.

He's not a guy at four speed in a lot of ways.

And you look at Spencer rallery numbers.

So he has six touchdowns and one interception this season.

So in the Saints' history, this is crazy.

They've never had a quarterback or they've had two quarterbacks through five games throw for six touchdowns, one interception and throw for over seventy percent.

That was Drew Brees in twenty eighteen.

So Spencer Ratler, Drew.

Brees and Spencer Rattler and yeah.

Twenty twenty five.

So those are the two quarterbacks on that list in Saint's history that have probably that well to start a year.

So it's like I got to give him his roses.

Kellen Moore, which, like again I didn't think it was a huge loss for the Eagles for him to leave.

He obviously is a pretty gifted coach if he's turning that out with Spencer Ratler and the team they have, Like I just I looked at those numbers, I couldn't believe it, like the fact that he's being smart with the ball in his hand like that, because him being six touchdowns and one pick, I agree with people that's not jumping out of like that's not amazing.

That's not a roll Bowl numbers.

But he's playing within the offense and he's not the reason this team is losing, like they have losses on the shaw and you can't point to him, like, sure there's been times he misthrows, but it's like, once again, expectations for this team.

So I still think the general public doesn't realize this defense is actually all right for the Saints, and Spencer Rally's playing at a same high level that Drake May's playing right now.

And my only pause here is when you dive into the numbers, this is once again another verbel spot.

Rabel does very well against bad teams, let alone teams with first or second year head coaches.

So there are trends that are like I know pros who bet trends, and that's there are trends they like that face to this Patriots team.

So I just want people know this isn't all professional.

I thought this was going to be all pro on this same side.

There are some that are back in Rabel in this spot.

But like I told him, I'll tell you, if you like the Patriots, you can get minus three right now.

That's that's a Patriots number right there.

To me, the Saints number, though, which is every book most likely in your state, is three and a half.

That to me is the confidence smart side the Patriots can win, they can cover this number.

That's like a thirty thirty five percent chance.

Like you're betting into a really bad spot side at a bad number, this Saints team.

I could be over my skis here back in the two weeks in a row.

But it's just about the number.

Just like last week, I thought that numbers should have been closer to three.

It wasn't right.

I mean, I think it peaked at two and a half.

Same thing here.

I think this number should be close to a pick.

You're getting a hook on three and a half.

I'm never gonna avoid this one.

I like the Saints cheat.

I like this matchup for the team and their defense.

I always forget how emotionally invested you are in the Philadelphia Phillies.

Yeah, I love them, man.

Like again, I'm it's Eagle season, but I'm still it's still in my mind Philly season.

Like if the Eagles were two and three, yeah it would suck, but it's like they're season to start till December anyway.

This is yeah going down oh two at home chat, I was I was hurting.

I was hurting Tuesday.

Not gonna lie.

Thank God for last night, Schward man, I needed it.

Starters have been a major story.

Oh Schwarver, gonna send one way out of here?

How far will it fly?

My goodness, Kyle Schwarver with a tape measure shot that is one of the biggest bombs you will ever see.

He was a season saver last night.

Yeah, we'll see what happens today.

But yeah, all right, so clearly you love the Saints.

Here.

Part of me just wants to bet the Patriots at minus three and then and then put him in the contest and just see what happens and let it roll.

Put the Patriots in and minus three.

No, put the Saints in.

Oh, oh, I will I'd be willing.

I'd be willing to sacrifice the bet and put the Saints in just to see how this whole thing plays out.

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At the Las Vegas Raiders, All right, look, I made a chat choice on Tuesday.

It's down half a point since I made it.

Chat choice brock Bauers did not practic yesterday.

Not great, not great, Jim, But this should be about the Raiders.

Letting Ashtrion Genty repeat the performance he had against the Bears.

Right, the Titans are thirty first in run DVA twenty eighth and EPA per rush twenty ninth in success rate against the rush.

Like Chip Kelly, don't get freaking cute, man, don't put the ball in Gino's hands, don't try to do anything special.

Just give it to Genty, let him score his touchdowns, let him beat up on a Titans team that really should not be even on the same field as any NFL team.

I know I'm exaggerating because it's the Raiders, and really the Raiders are trash, but they do have offensive weapons and if they can just put them in the right hands, they should be able to win this game and win this game by margin.

So I'm still in the Raiders.

Still in Raiders, and the professionals are coming on in Tennessee's like again, what is that about?

They don't always win, So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around.

You can find minus three and a half.

And I don't care for the Socckers here I saw the best laziest stat of the week, which was there's been three rookie qbs come back down seventeen points in NFL history.

They all lost the final game by like twenty points.

So yeah, you know why they're playing for bad teams.

And like this Titans team, what is this line, Honest to god, what is this line if the if the Titans lose that game twenty eight to six against.

The car the Rangers so bad.

I don't think across the six.

I think a peak would get up to minus six, right, But.

So then to me, we're still getting two points of value.

But to me, that's just a glaring statuo of just how these young quarterbacks they can have that moment, that come back thing.

But Chad just nailed it.

They're on really bad teams and that most usually don't know how to handle winning.

So like you have this insanely high emotional win on the road, you fly home, vibes are the highest of high.

Now you're flying again to Vegas to go play this matchup against a Raiders team that is veteran across the board and insanely desperate.

Like Pete Carroll, if he gets fired, he might be end up being our next president.

What is he seventy five?

He's right around the perfect age.

So it's it's it's scary like we're both in the same boat of like holding our nose taking this side, and we know exactly what we're doing here with this Raiders team that the only thing I could burns is Gino because Jeni, he should rush for one fifty year like you just avoid Simmons in the middle.

You can run for whatever you want against this team, and you look on the flip side, like we talked the same reason we loved the Raiders are against the Bears, Max Crosby against bad old lines when he can pick the guy he can go against.

Oh my god, right, it's like it's not even fair, and I love to you see.

You know all these teams reaching out to try to get him off the Raiders.

If the Raiders were a smart organization, you should move him on.

You should let this reward, this man who's so great, get three first whatever you can get from him, and let him move on to go win a championship, because it is you watch him every Sunday.

He's just the best, and it's such a waste here over the Raiders.

But we still got him here and we still have a great match with him, So I know, Chaed, I can't believe the amount of professional money that have moved this number down, especially that you know we got four here at hard Rock the Minas three and a half.

It's just egregious to me.

It's stupid.

Yeah, shop around, get that number if you can.

I just I can't believe people and professionals alike are overacting this much to a Tennessee win, which they view is something that can kind of spark this team.

Historical data shows this is not that moment.

This is usually when they fall off a cliff the following game.

Also, historical data tells you that when you're betting a home team after a blowout, there's also going to be deflation in the line, and that's when you want to bet on that team.

So, like if we talk about by low and sell high, like this is when you sell the Titans, and this is when you buy the Raiders.

You hope on the Raiders part, we don't know if this is rock bottom yet because we.

Assume we assume Caleb Williams called Max Crosby the best football player he's ever played against.

That's fairy.

I'll tell you that, all right, H'donald So I get it?

Yeah right?

San Francisco at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay minus three.

We talked about this and sheriff calls.

I want to spend a minute on it because like Brock Purdy, Juwan Jennings, Ricky Piersoll, again, none of them practiced on Wednesday.

Also, even scarier Mac Jones was limited.

So like, what is happening?

Why is the entire wise guy community forget about coming in on tennessee?

Why the Niners?

What is happening here?

To me, this is solely about fade the box and just thinking they can't continue to win every game by a field goal in the final seconds, literally the final seconds.

I agree that that's the only reason.

And maybe there's some other injuries for the Bucks in the defensive backfield, But if mac Jones, who's already limited physically, is now limited because of injuries and he's your quarterback, I don't know, man, Like, what what are people seeing here?

Bizarre?

And I was so excited too.

I was like, oh my god, they're gonna give us two and a half in our contest and we can We'll get the Bucks here, they'll announce parties out and Max playing and maybe this line will run up to four four and a half.

We have an amazing number.

It's three and a half.

So it's like I'm no forging having our contest either, which sucks.

Yeah, which could be good for me though, because I probably should avoid this Bucks team because there's something I'm not seeing here.

I mean, I have a total blind spot, and I think what you said is part of it where it's like Baker's hit on black now nine straight times, and he's gonna go hit it again.

Like I loved his interview this week.

I think he's talking about how like guys will say he has moxie now or before he was just a cocky ass.

Yeah.

Right, that's what winning does, where it's like, yeah, Baker, that's part of it, But there's also part of it.

You were kind of a douche and now like you do have the cool maxy of like you know, you're not some young kid, You're a growing ass man person.

Dude's out in the stands.

I kind of love it, But then when you were twenty two, it just looked it felt weird, So I don't know, I'm too close to it, I think, And I'm just in love with this team and I've obviously bet into this, like I'm all in on this three it's like and I've got guys telling me not to do it, and it's like I got to touch the hot stove.

I can't help it here.

This is the number doesn't make sense because once again it pretty is out.

There are number one and number two receivers are out again.

You're you're betting on lightning striking twice with this this Fort and Iris team.

Like what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flucish.

Yeah, the Viners covering it.

The Miners didn't win that game, right, The Rams lost that game.

And even the cover where it's like you're betting on Mac Jones again to be twenty of twenty three passing and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter.

Like, I just feel like the ask is way too big if you're back in the four Irish team.

So, like I said, people can be careful here.

There's clearly I clearly have a blind spot here.

I maybe talked to two other really smart groups that are on this buck side, but they're like me, they're scratch ahead is a little bit and like, I don't know, we are we idiot here, Like this feels like a gift getting minus through in a Bucks team that with all their injuries they do have in their secondary, there's ways to combat that with the style of defense they play.

I know it didn't show up obviously gets the Seahawks, but I don't know.

Once Like I said, I just I think it's a big difference.

Betweam Sam Darnold and a healthy receiving core the Seahawks had in Mac Jones here with a banged up forty nine ers team, so very very unique game.

I'm excited to talking about it more on Sunday because we'll have a lot more info, Like right now, we just don't know where I'm going off right now, what I know, which is pretty hasn't practiced in two days.

The wide receivers haven't practicing two days.

If they practice today, which they need to do most likely to play in this game, we will have more info and this number could easily drop the Bucks two and a half, and then I'll talk more about the composition on that on Sunday.

I'm excited for Sunday because I feel like we're already We've got like five teams right now that I think five games that we feel will be in contention.

The Bucks are one of them, and we've got more to come.

Can I talk the Colts game?

I don't know if you have that on your thing, just two seconds on the Colts.

I didn't put it on the list because the numbers move so much.

The numbers now it's seven, So Colts are minus seven, you know against the Cardinals.

Just to set it up, they were five or five and a half when we talked about it on Sunday.

I bet into the Colts when that number was lower.

I haven't brought it up because the numbers move so much.

So go ahead.

Yeah, it is at minus seven minus one fifteen now at hard Rock.

So, like Chad said, I think that's based off the Keller Murray news, right, he's not practice, Like we said, That's why I wanted to be on this number early.

Yeah, because it's like, Okay, he could have I know it sounds stupid.

He could have got a concussion from that snap of the football, or he really does have a foot injury.

We don't know, but we do know is she's not practicing and that's a big deal.

And I wanted to look at what are the trends of teams like the Cardinals that are in this unique spot that they lost three straight games on a last field a last second field goal.

Like to me, that's something that always jumps out to me, where it's like they're argument numbers, the backup and trends the backup teams that are in this spot because they are humans.

And like I say, all the time, history does repeat itself with humans, you can't the game may change, the personalities may change.

At its core, it's still people living in real lives that are affected by wins and losses.

And you dive into this one.

Since twenty thirteen, teams that have lost three straight by three points or less, they're one in eight and they're following game straight up two and seven against the spread.

So again, this number people.

I still think it's worth grabbing the seven if you can, just in case it is Brissette, this will instantly jump to seven and a half and then if you hadn't missed it, Yes, you can talk yourself into taking the Cardinals.

But I still think this is a cold signe.

Like we talkt Coults are a big is shit, They're a big offensive line wise, defensive line wise, and I just matchup wise.

If I was going to be on Kyler, it's like, okay, this is a Kyler game because he is a dog.

On the road always tends to be much better than at home as a favorite, just historically against the spread.

But when I saw that trend, it feels real to me that teams have hit their low point and then you have to add in now the time is something to do with trends.

We have a coach getting into physical altercations with players on the sideline and having a talk in front of the team and pay a hundred K fine, and almost players they'd be like, yeah, it's cool, we forgive coach.

We're moving on, when you know in the back of their mind they're like, fuck this guy.

I cannot wait to be to be fired, Like on everythinging ierber Meyer, this is the kicker.

Ierber Meyer kicked the kid.

Yeah, lost the whole team.

Lost the whole team.

So they can say what they want on camera, play it good.

I mean, I just felt like that was like, you know, again, they don't have an owner of that team, or they would have fired the coach after that incident.

It's just you have to do something there.

So yeah, I just wanted to bring that up because I saw that trend now I was like, oh my god, this is exactly what I thought.

This is why I wanted to be on the Colts early.

And yeah, my hate was right earlier early in the Sunday the five to five and a half was the right read.

And we'll be interesting if Kyler does get cleared, if this does drop below seven, I think this is what the line will be.

Regardless if Kyler gets clear to come back, I just don't see dipping below seven again.

Cincinnati at green Bay.

I just want to touch on it for a second because after we talked about liking Green Bay on Tuesday.

We won't put this in the contest, but as soon as maybe right as soon as we were done recording on Tuesday, the pack the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco and Zach Taylor's announced that he we will be starting, and the line moved to fourteen and a half.

Yeah, so I bet the Packers at fourteen for a little taste, not too much, but I don't think anything changes for me.

Is Joe Flacco going to be better at getting the ball to Jamar Chase.

More importantly, is Joe Flacco going to play middle linebacker and stop Josh Jacobs from running after ten days of Matt Lafleur just being so mad that his running game isn't doing anything.

So this Bengals team isn't going to be saved by Joe Flacco walking through that door.

No, but it is shocking a lot of trends do love the Bengals, but it's like this computer doesn't understand what this team is now.

I don't care what's happened in the last thirty years.

This is you have to play this exact spot.

This is very unique, and there's actually some good trends to that point to Lafleur after bie weeks playing against very bad teams, especially early bye weeks in the near where talking at the time, it's a big deal.

You're healthy, rusted against a team that they've just been running through it for five straight weeks now and now they're on the road again as a double digit dog, and the Flacco trade just bizarro world.

I don't know if they look at those circle data, but you're grabbing a quarterback that needs protection, and now he's going from mid tier maybe bottom twenty protection in the Browns to the bottom thirty two, number thirty one and past blocking.

So Nightmary, Nightmary, nightmare scenario.

I mean as a hater, as a fan, I mean, it would be the greatest thing ever Joe Flacco beats the Green Bay Packers twice on to bottom five teams in the NFL.

It would be legendary.

But this isn't a fairy tale.

This isn't a made up world.

This Bengals team is so much worse than that Browns team, and which is crazy to think and say, because I know the books don't reflect that.

Right, they still have the Bengals A is a better favorite to win this division in this Browns team.

But my model just hates this Bengals team.

And I have this at fifteen and a half, so I'm still all green Bay.

But my god, my god, I can't believe this is how bad it is for the Spangals team, that this number is what it is, and against a bank a Green Bay team that I want to say, they're not warranted to be this big of a favorite, Like they have their own issues, right, They got injuries they're not in rhythm offensively, but that just shows how bad this Spangals team.

They should they should just absolute get rolled here by Green Bay.

All right.

I want to get to the primetime games because we actually liked all of them and we had a good conversation.

I think the most challenging one is Detroit at Kansas City.

Kansas City, you can get it at two at hard Rock.

It's a two and a half in a lot of places.

We were wondering why this line was moving towards the Chiefs when something like eighty percent of the bets were on the Lions.

It told us that the wise guys really liked the Chiefs.

Told us the books were taking a stand on the Chiefs.

We do know at this point Terry and Arnold cornerback, Taylor Decker, tackle, Khalif Raymond receiver, Kirby Joseph safety, Aman Ross Saint Brown wide receiver for the Lions.

They all missed practice on Wednesday, so there are a lot of injuries, a lot of people playing through through pain that normally they would be able to do, but it's so bad they can't even practice this week.

That will probably have an impact on the game.

I don't know that.

That's why the line is moving, because it kind of started moving before that.

It just feels like people are still underestimating the Chiefs.

They're overestimating the Lions.

Like the Chiefs offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be.

The Lions offense.

They're going on grass a little banged up.

I don't mind being on the Chiefs here.

I kind of like it.

I've bet the Chiefs and minus two.

Yeah, honestly, I do mind.

I feel sick to my stomach because I was just trying to find a reason to be und Detroit and I just haven't.

I'm the Chiefs with Chad.

I probably we'll talk, so it might end up in our contest, but it's.

Like I think it will.

I think it's going to be the Rock and the Hard Place, and I think we're going to convince ourselves.

We probably will.

I just I can't get over how much love there is professionally to this chief side.

And you know, I run through all the trends.

I mean, we know a lot of fans of the show know him because we love getting off this Mahomes one Mahomes minus three or less.

So if he's an underdog or sure you know, less than a field goal twenty nine to twelve and one in his career against the spread.

So like again, this is why me and Chad love betting Mahomes.

This's got spot.

We've made a lot of money over his entire career in sex spot.

So his opponent is coming off a win, I'm more than ten points.

So again, same thing.

They had a huge win Detroit.

Now they're playing against Mahomes who's less than three points.

He's fifteen to four in his career in this exact spot against the spread.

All right, let's dive into even more.

Mahomes.

When he's playing against team that's covering eighty percent through five games, he's four and one against the spread three and oh straight up winning by over nine points per game.

So when he's playing against Juggernauts, Mahomes in his career showed up in this exact spot.

So once again, I want to paint a picture for why people are like shure shocked.

These pros are betting that.

You the football geeks and nerds already liked this spot for the Chiefs, but then you have all these trends that keep showing how of a spot.

This is for this Chiefs team and specifically a Mahomes.

So Mahomes, you know he's faced great offense in his career, right, this is a team that's lines were scoring more than thirty points per game.

This sap in five times in his career.

Mahomes, he's five and oh straight up against those teams, winning those games by a wast ten points.

When he's you know, in primetime, which this is a primetime game for Mahomes, nineteen and six straight up in this exact spot, primetime game at home, So can't avoid it.

I wanted to fine Reese's thelectus Detroit team.

I think this is just the classic case of they are very verrely talented offensively, they have injuries to their defense.

Can they out scheme Spags here and you know, be a the juggernaut they are?

I don't know if they can.

Like this just feels like the type of game or Spag is gonna take away whatever their strength is.

That these other defense they played, these are bad teams, and you saw a little bit of the Browns.

The Browns were taking away what they want to do, which is run the ball and make golf beat you.

I think that's Spags is gonna do.

I mean, Chad, you said, I'm on s Brown.

That's a huge deal.

If he's banged up in my misses game.

He is the safety valve of all safety valve for golf.

Like anytime they need a third down a crow route or a slant and they let im on a round pick, it's unguardable the man wins.

It feels like every time on third down it's just an auto play.

And if he doesn't win it, he's one yard short and a fourth down they go for it anyway.

So yeah, I can't believe it.

It's like Detroit as a dog here.

I can I believe.

I'm not on that side, but you gotta stick with us people.

You got to take the Chiefs here.

This is the chief spot, a Chief's number.

Long term, we win this one.

So again, it might not work here.

There's no guaranteed bet.

There's one hundred percent bet, but it's like you're playing the long term game.

You have to back Mahomes in this spot.

He just plays really well in these big moments when people don't believe in them, let alone the general public.

Like the fact that it's still you know, seventy five percent of the money and the tickets on this Detroit team.

There's one book that I've moved the Chiefs back to one and a half.

You could go grab.

I just don't know if the spread's gonna matter.

Like the books you're telling us, this ain't going to be under three, Like this is going to be a field goal one more game the Chiefs win here, So I don't know they're gonna get there late win field goal by Mahomes, but I love them to bounce back here after that loss they had against the Jaguars, and once again we're playing the number this is.

This was three and a half then, no matter what I had to be on Detroit, but if it was three or less, I'm going to back Mahomes this exact spot.

Like we win against them here early in the year, when the Eagles were a favorite against the Chiefs, that was different.

They were banged up then they had a lot of pieces missing.

I think with Worthy back, you've seen their offense just take that next step they needed with him there that he just opens things up.

So yeah, I really like this matchup for the Chiefs offense against the defense of Detroit and defensively.

I think spagg is gonna get his best this Detroit team, that he's gonna be able to slow it down.

There's no way they're gonna get more than thirty points.

They're not gonna be what they've been at home, which is this indoor juggernaut.

This is outdoors.

Like Chad said on grass, they're not cutting that grass this week.

They're gonna water before the game as well.

It ain't gonna be that turf like they're used to.

So yeah, I'm people gonna I'm starting to really fall in love this Chiefs.

I'm just trying to be patient here because I know anything can happen in these steps of matchups with two great teams.

Yeah, the way we're talking about it, belise how we feel deep down about this game, which is real fear, real trepidation.

I think we're somewhat leaning into how the books are telling us they think this game is going to go, because they haven't moved it at all.

I thought by now the Chiefs would be an underdog.

Like on Sunday night, we started talking like this line's going to move, it's going to be the Chiefs, and it hasn't.

It's going in the complete opposite direction.

Even though all of the money, all of the tickets I mean are coming in on Detroit right now.

It just tells you that there's so much wise guy resistance on this Chiefs team.

So it took me until yesterday to bet it.

I betted it too, because as confident as we sound talking about this game, it's still going to be a nightmare to watch, and it's going to keep us up late, and I bet it's going to be in our contest because it's going to come down to this and the Saints and the Box and we're going to be like, oh my god, what are we going to do?

Last game?

I want to talk about Chicago at washingingon this game has moved down to four.

It was at four and a half.

Our comments section lighting up on this one.

A lot of people loving the Commanders.

I'm here for it.

So many people got opinions the Bears are the play.

I bet the Bears at four and a half.

I know you kind of feel the same way, but don't love it.

I don't see this getting into our contest compared to the other ones that we have, But I think the Commander is getting too much love for the way they beat up on the Chargers and Jaden Daniel's coming back and it's overinflating this line.

It's Tyreek Stevenson's redemption game.

Yeah, it's just another game.

I feel like I have a total blind spot too, because it's way off my model number, which again meaning what meaning I have this at three?

Like, yeah, why are we not hammering the Bears plus four and a half And that's my fear where it's like I always say, they're not here to give away free one of these sportsbooks, and that's just a very bizarre number where everyone's in agreeance with the chat like who That's why I couldn't believe there's so many professionals that like this Commander side.

It's like what do you like?

Like, what is the matchup here that makes them a four and a half point favorite over this Bears team?

I just I can't find it, And it feels like people are grasping at straws to try to make it sound as if it is a good number, where it's like you're just playing the number because you know it's what the book is gonna need.

The book is gonna need the Commanders here.

The public dog is going to be this Bears team, I have no doubt about it.

But it's like I think the public is right.

I think this is too inflated.

I can't find trends that point to love in this Washington team.

You know, the the Bears.

Yes, they're not as good.

I guess you could say as commanders here we are through five weeks, but like I view them, is not that different of teams, Like skill wise, you know, Jane Daniels had incredible seas last year.

I still told you I still have Caleb as like basically the same guy.

I still think he's greated just as high, and through five weeks, I think he's played really well in.

This offense, so he's played amazing.

So I just fon't out to deal with this one.

It's like I want to be on the Bears, but fifteen years of being a professional sports better just has the alarms going off here of being like, man, this is a weird line.

There's I just I'm glad it came down like seeing it now for like hard rock, yeah, thank god, Like at least some professionals are joining us on this Bear side.

Because I tell you this, early in the week, it was all commander's money.

It was all love for this commander's team.

And I'm with Jet.

I just totally think people are box score watching that Chargers game and they're just overrating this team.

And like Chad said, through a quarter and a half, Daniel was look totally uncomfortable and didn't look right at that knee brace.

Now once he got in rhythm, yeah it's you saw Jane Daniels, one of the more deably passers downfield.

We were done though, so to me, I'll be patient here, Like if Gerry McLaurin gets cleared, if they're all good to go offensively, they're fully healthy, Okay, maybe we won't have this contest, but I think we've got a real discussion Sunday if this is one of the one of the five we want to get here because I do like the number.

I like the four and a half.

I bet the four and a half.

My just weary here is just what am I missing?

This feels too good to be true, just a bizarre number.

Like again, they would have got the same amount of action on this Bear steam of three and a half and they did a four and a half.

I don't know why they gave us a free point there.

It's that's the part I can't get over.

It's just it's a dumb line by the books, and the books don't make dumb lines like that, Like they're not idiots.

This is billion dollar companies, so really really bizarre line.

You can once again, you can still get a four and a half.

I can't believe it, but you can still get it.

It's on the list for Sunday, Simon.

On the list.

We got the Panthers, we got the Chargers, we got the Steelers, we got the Saints, we got the Raiders, the Bucks, the Chiefs, and the Bear So a healthy number for Sunday.

I think I'm looking at seven eight games.

Yeah, for Sunday, which is a good conversation.

I think there's four that we that we feel pretty good about, and then it's going to be a rock and a hard placed conversation for the rest.

But I'm excited for it.

I'm here for it.

A lot of favorites, a lot of favorites.

If you be one second, one second survivor green Bay survivor green Bay.

Well that's what I was going to say.

Okay, great, Simon, it's time for you to give us your biggest bets of the week.

Pull up those pants and be a man.

I mean, ATS, this week's give me a little tough, people, because I'm kind of getting lazy this week because we did so well ATS last week.

I tend to just go with easy favorites and pay pay them together.

Like the Rams, I love that number, but I'd rather just take their money line and pair would say the Eagles or you know, we just talked about we like the Vegas, we like the Chargers.

Like, there's a lot of teams I'm just paying money lines with this week, So I would say it's different than most weeks.

If we're ATS my biggest bets.

I mean, I'm on Carolina three and a half on the Saints three and a half, took positions on Pittsburgh.

Still would I guess the five and a half, But obviously I feel much better when it was in the fours, and I just know I'm gonna get there in the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are prebabing going to be one of my bigger bets.

So yeah, against the spread, those will probably be my bigger ones.

That's why I feel like the Chiefs will end up being in the contest because we're both talking ourselves into how confident we feel about this, which is a frightening, frightening scenario.

All right, let's do an a round robin underdog parlay.

My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.

I would do Panthers, Yeah, I would do Saints.

Yeah, I would do Bears.

Love it it.

Gotta do Detroit just in case.

Oh yeah, Detroit, Saints, Panthers Bears, Detroit.

Who's our fifth?

I mean, it's kind of boring, but let's let's thar Seahawks and they're plus one plus one hundred right now, that's what I thought.

Okay, money line underdog round robin Saints, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, and Detroit our money line round robin favorite.

Let's do six six this week because I have a lot of favorite talk.

I like to win out right.

Oh exciting Raiders, Raiders.

If you hear this in time, you're gonna throw the Eagles in there.

I just don't think enough people hear this.

In Times Pittsburgh, we talked about Tomlin nine and zero in this exact spot, or nine and one straight up in this exact spot.

Colts love It, Rams McVeigh Stafford sixteen and oh as a favorite of six points or more until last week, so you expect to bounce back, right, So I had no problem going off the Rams here against the Ravens on the money line to thrown around Robin already gave out Vegas, right, Chad, you said that one you can.

I wouldn't do the money line on Green Bay, but like the old line six and a half, if you want take it down, that's probably minus five hundred.

I wouldn't mind throwing that in as the sixth leg and the Chargers again, that's why I want to do six seven legs this week.

I just one of these favorites.

Sure they're gonna lose, but I wouldn't be shocked all seven of these guys winning.

Like last week was really the week of the underdogs.

I think this week is gonna be super chalky.

On the money line for favorites.

We said survivor.

Let me repeat that, actually Raiders for the favorite parlay Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Cults, Chargers, and maybe throw in the Packers autlined minus six survivor.

We just said Packers.

Yeah sharp versus square.

Let's see, last week I had the Jets, you had the Saints.

You one I lost.

Who would you like to do this week?

Simon, I gotta go Chiefs.

I guess that's what I thought.

That's it.

I really need to take a stand on that one.

Just like last week with the Saints.

It's like I'm being a big I might as well make it my Sharper Square.

I think I'm gonna take Carolina, Okay, plus three.

Yeah, I'll take them plus three.

But we're in.

We're in, and I like it more and more the more that we talk about it.

All Right, We're gonna be back on Sunday.

This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

We will be back Sharper Square YouTube Sunday morning.

You're gonna east drop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon.

We're gonna panic, We're gonna make human decisions.

We're gonna regret the rest of the day and probably Monday too.

We will be back Sharper Square Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern.

To recap all that misery, watch or listen YouTube Sharper Square.

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