Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by hard Rock bet.

We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

This is the show that makes the squares.

Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Millman.

I'm joined as always by my BFF, my companion, Mike byre professional Better, my co host, Simon Hunter Heado, Simon Chad.

Happy year to you, my friend, how you doing.

Happy year to you, Happy New Year to Matt Mitchell, Happy new Year to all of our friends and listeners and watchers who have spent the season with us, who found us anew in the Sharper Square world, who came with us from the old world.

We are incredibly appreciative and lucky as we kick off twenty twenty six.

Good Lord twenty twenty six.

Yeah, it doesn't sound real yet.

I definitely had one of those moments last night.

We were just saying out loud.

I turned to my friend and I said, it is weird every time you hear that we're closer now to twenty fifty than we are to the year two thousand, or the year two thousand.

Doesn't Oh my god, the year twenty fifty sounds like a different lifetime.

So it's kind of a mind fuck right now thinking about that.

Twenty fifty is cosmic.

Dude, I don't even know how that well, let's see twenty fifty.

I can't even say how old i'll be, Simon, you might be.

You might be doing this show on your own.

By that.

I doubted chat.

I keep saying people like you that live on bird feed, they live to one.

Hundred years, twenty fifty.

In all my cloud arteries.

I'm not even gonna say.

All I know is that I'm not even gonna say twenty fifty eighty.

I can't even I can't even see the number.

I won't be eighty, but I won't be that far off.

I mean, you really want to.

I'll be your age basically.

Dude, you'll be older than me.

I'll basically be right around sixty.

Yeah, but I'm not sixty.

I know.

It's just fun making fun of you.

That's hurtful.

Those are hurtful things to say as we kick off the new year, as BFFs, Hey listen today, no matter where you are, no matter what you're doing, we are all hoosiers.

That's all I'm going to say, except I'm also going to say, for those who are like grappling with Indiana's college football dominance, welcome to the club.

If you're joining us in Who's your nation?

You're wondering what a hoosier is?

I wish I could tell you.

I took an entire class on it when I went to Indiana University.

I still don't know.

It could be some nickname from a poem a guy in Indiana wrote.

It could be a saying from Jolly Old England, Simon, about like depicting strength and woodsman.

It could be because a guy who owned a lot of land in the state of Indiana was named John Hoosier, and everyone who worked for him called themselves Hoosiers.

It doesn't matter today, Simon.

You're a hoosier.

Matt Mitchell is a Hoosier.

I'm a hoosier.

Go I you fight, Fight, Fight?

What about Chad?

The trend of off of bye in the college playoffs do not like.

What I've seen so far, with the teams getting the buys.

It's not a good trend at all, Simon.

We saw it again last night with Ohio State losing to Miami.

Great game by Miami.

Hopefully Kurt Signetti gets to repeat the words of Miami coach that he said last night.

But hats off to our guys for being some tough ass suns of bitches.

Tough ass sons of bitches, that's what we are for doing a week eighteen episode on Thursday on New Year's Day in the morning, because we are dedicated, we're professional.

We're going to do our stinking job.

Tough ast sons of bitches.

Yeah, we bus should be up on a couch right now watching stranger Things, getting ready for this college football day.

But instead, the never ending wheel that is the NFL continues to roll.

My friend, we gotta get to it.

No, Simon, we should be on the peloton working off the olive oil cake that we ate last night.

All right, reminders, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple, Potzi, Spotify.

Let's get into this every week.

We give our picks every week, even in the holiday season.

Simon's fellow professional betters, the wise guys are going to give us some feedback, So let's get to it.

Let's hear some sharp calls.

Have to answer this boat, all right, telephone ring maybe lead, Yeah, there's always Let's start where we differ.

The pros absolutely love Chicago.

Most guys I've talked to have taken a position on Chicago even like Chicago at the minus three, So they totally think Chicago's are a much better team than Detroit right now.

A team that is playing for that two seed.

They think they're gonna massively motivated and they've been betting it just thinking that exact way.

So that one actually pretty pretty shocked me.

I thought that Troy would be the pro side, the public would be over the Bears, but it seems like the public and the pros are lining up on this Bears team another game.

I think it's just not on our radar, or maybe I'm just missing it.

I wanted to be on Dallas.

Every pro I've talked to, they love the Giants here in this spot.

They love Dart and what he can do offensively against a Cowboys defense.

It's just atrocio, especially against running quarterbacks.

So I found it really interesting that so many pros that's gonna be a close one.

And yeah, that number is a couple of times touched four again, just got to mainly bet back down to three and a half in a lot of books.

So really interesting a game that I might simply just be missing Seattle Seahawks.

I cannot believe the pros are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite all on the road and it must win to get the one C type of game, But they are.

I mean, most guys I talked to really like that spot and they just think this four NS team is truly a house of cards.

How much longer could party in this offense, prop up this foreign others team is kind of their view of it.

And if you're looking for a team that maybe can stop this juggerna have an offense to the four and horows, it would be the Seattle defense, right that's been so dominant on the road, so really interesting game where I thought all this would be lined up on them and it's pretty split.

But what we did get right Panthers, like we talked about all all week.

You know that came down for three and a half to three now down to two and a half.

That's a really smart sharp side and I'm glad the pros are on it because I was a little worried when I saw how much money was pouring on that Bucks team.

It's like, what am I missing here?

But I think we see this number keep dropping.

It makes me feel better is our position.

And you know, another game we haven't spent too much time on, but I think is an interesting move by the professionals is that Chargers game.

The pros have just been hammering the Chargers and the number really has not budged.

So that's gonna be an interesting topic to talk about.

Where are the books simply just missing it?

Are they overrating too much the backups for this Chargers team, and they're clearly taking a stand here the books.

And you know, I don't think the public this is a game they're ever gonna mess with.

I truly think this is just a professionals versus the books type of game.

Right the most, you know, Joe public betters, they're not gonna bet too big on the NFL this weekend.

So a lot of the money when you see big money simply on one side most times, if it's a game like this, like a twelve and a half points spread, this is gonna be professional money.

It's not going to be the type of game the public tuch touches here.

So I'm really interested where that number goes check because like I said, the books have taken a stand now they're holding firm on that twelve and a half game.

We love Saints plus three plus three and a half, It's I knew that would be the pro side.

It's gonna be interesting what happens now.

We just got word before the show Olave is going to miss this game.

See where that number goes.

Maybe we get fours four and a half, So I know there's gonna be some pros on the other side of this.

It's just then they basically took Atlanta two and a half or they've not touched it since, so it really is just if you're getting the three three and a half, that's the professional side in my opinion on the Saints.

And you know, the last one we talked a little bit about at Minnesota.

We've seen that number.

I got a couple of books get up to seven and a half.

It keeps coming back down, so you know there is some a little bit of resistance.

But I hope people listen.

Got the five and a half, got the six and a half on Minnesota.

That was definitely the sharp side.

I don't think we see it go below seven at this point, so it's a wonky week.

I'll have maybe a little bit more calls come Sunday morning.

But just with the holiday, it throws it off a little bit because most pros I know espos of your professional groups, they're really focused on the college the college bowl games and the playoffs.

Once that once those games are over, that's when they start taking larger positions come NFL Saturday and Sunday.

So I'll definitely have more info for Sunday morning.

Hi, So everyone check it out Sunday morning.

We're on the air.

YouTube watch it, Sharper Square.

I'm really excited about this Carolina game.

We've been hitting it since it was three and a half last Sunday.

They are now two and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Simon, the Carolina Panthers are going to be our brass balls Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet you know what it takes brass balls.

To me, it came down to this and the Chargers, And I'm glad you brought up the Chargers and Sharp Calls because I do want to talk about them later in the show.

Really intriguing matchup to me, But I feel like we would have been doing our listeners a poor service, a disservice if we didn't just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are coming off a loss, they are on the road, they can fulfill their destiny that we have been predicting for two years of winning the dreadful Nobody cares about it, NFC South, Like, how do we not stick to our guns and go with the Carolina Panthers, especially on a trend.

Three weeks ago, we're on them, two weeks ago, we're off them.

This week we're on them.

Let's just be consistent.

Let's do everyone service and be on the right side of history with the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half.

Yeah, we love betting history as well.

Just the uniqueness of this right, this will be give all the stat one more time.

Carolina seven zero against the spread after a straight up loss, covering over almost twelve points per game in this exact spot.

Since nineteen ninety, no team has ever gone eight to oh against the spread after a straight up loss.

So, like you said, we're betting on history here, can never avoid it.

Really unique spot with this Panthers team.

Yeah, I really found it interesting just about when I gave out that home record with Baker, just about how bad he is in this exact spot at home and the fact that you know in his career five and fourteen at home and against divisional foes, since he's moved to all these different teams, so since twenty twenty two and twelve against the spread against home divisional foes.

So as a favorite, we talk we just do not back Baker.

We like to fade Baker.

We like to back them as a dog.

Little did we know he would be going through one of the most historical worst streaks ever against the spread.

We have made money luckily off of it.

But my guy, looking back, there were so many signs there.

This was just a crumbling house.

And the start of the year they were so hot, they were so good to us because we were winning on them.

I think we're not late to the party with this Bucks team, but you know, we've been a little hesitant in certain matchups to fade them.

Here we're both a line where we're like, okay, we want to fade Baker.

We really want it back to Panthers, and we said this probably should be closer to a pick.

There's not much that separates these two teams at this standpoint.

So the fact that you're still getting the Baker feels like tax Like there's still the books.

You're still giving Baker that point point and a half because he is the better quarterback.

I think we're gonna still here like the Panthers, you know, coming off fifty four yards by Bryce Young.

Yeah, like I said, this is this isn't this exact thing he does?

He plays possible, they do.

They're terrible one week.

The next week he's throwing for what was a three fifty against the Rams like a jugger.

Not you just it's just so up and down this season.

So I love that were end of the season with our team, the Panthers give it to us plus two and a half.

You know, Simon, we had some friends over last night, and I got a lot of comments this week from listeners about your immediate reaction when I said Rico Tautle needs seven yards and you're like, no, no, I can't do a whole show where you're talking.

About this seven yards.

Yeah, seven yards.

I just want to point out I did bet ric o'dowdell twenty five plus yards rushing and parlay it with ric o'dowdell his anytime touchdown, because the anytime touchdown odds are about plus one seventeen.

If you parlay it with his twenty five plus yards, you're getting it for plus one thirty.

So that was my point.

Yeah, I had I think I had two different people walk up to me and say, hey, Rico Dado has got a bad hamstring.

Might not play this week.

He's playing.

He's he's full participant this morning.

If the difference is seven yards, to make what is a million dollars in incentives, you have to play it.

Take the shot.

Yeah, you have to at least get two or three carres.

T I get seven yards.

That might be a stretch, but seven yards he got.

I love that people were coming up to you in the book, Well.

Tell me this guy's hurt.

Yeah, I just yea.

All that is just great.

God bless our listeners the freaking best.

Hey, Matt Mitchell, I didn't put this in the script, but we should throw up Seattle and San Francisco just because Simon mentioned it, because I didn't think we were going to play it in the contest.

We can't, right, It's right, we can't play it in the contest.

So like I'm a little surprise too.

I understand sort of where the wise guys are coming from, and We talked a little bit about this on Tuesday.

They are very clear distinctions here.

Either you believe in Kyle Shanahan as an underdog and you believe in what he's been able to prove with his team at home as an underdog, or you believe in Mike McDonald and what he's been able to prove with this defense on the road and being so dominant.

So I understand why the wise guys are backing the Seahawks.

At the end of the day, I think you and I both just feel better backing Brock Purty and Kyle Shanahan than ultimately backing Sam Donald.

Yeah, and we talked this is another historical game, right since nineteen ninety, only one other time as the forty nine ers had a one percentage above seventy five percent have been a home dog, and it's very unique.

I went back and looked it up twenty eleven twenty twelve playoffs Drew Brees Saints four nine Ers one thirty six to thirty two.

So not much historical data we have to go off of, but Dad just shows you that, you know, it's a unique spot for this Niners team.

They're not really dogs at home and I gave you all those crazy brock pretty stats in his career against the Seahawks team in his career six and one straight up when he's been under three points or less, he's three and zero straight up and against the spread at home.

You know, we just there's something about this fortn Irist team, especially at home, and knowing that this is kind of the way it's been with Shanahan.

Like we talked before the year, we both like the Niners to be the one seed at plus nine hundred in the NFC, and it really was because their schedule was easy.

But we've talked all the time about the up and down of the Niners.

They're just the seesaw team.

They come in fourth place, the next year, they come in first place.

They get healthy.

The next year, they have a ton of injuries.

This year they've had the injuries.

I mean, that's why Shannon's up for Coach of the Year at number two right now in the voting, or I should send the odds because they've done it with all these injuries.

I mean, it's incredible what the Niners have battle to deal with those injuries.

So I get why the pros are taking their position in the Seahawks.

Right, I blindly bet the Seahawks team all year on the road because they're just a covering machine.

The coach gets this defense up, you know.

Mike McDonald's also I think maybe number three and number four and Coach of the year odds just because it's been incredible, right, Yeah, when he got his quarterback and really has changed his defense.

And at the end of the day, me, you were a line chat.

The reason we like the sport and ours team is we just do not trust Sam Darnold and you've seen it.

The numbers back it up.

These last five six weeks, he's been very disappointing.

I think he's number one or number two in the league in fumbles.

He's just been machine.

Yeah, he's been really up and down, and the defense has kind of bailed him out and saved them.

So you're basically if you're back in theoxy, you are simply back in that defense.

And I think we're both more comfortable back in purty the Sneyers offense, and they've been there, done that, right, Perty has been to Super Bowls.

He's lived up to these kind of moments in his in his career, so I know it's crazy unique spot getting the niners of the dog.

I do just feel like we're the suckers here.

But like I said, it's I think the pros are missing this one.

Back in the Seaks team, I think this is finally time the hop off the train if we kind of got away with one last week when they were seven and a half my favorites.

Speaking of suckers, back in the old eighteen hundred days, when Indiana was first defining itself as the Hoosier State, they called their border rivals in Illinois the suckers.

True story, thank you for your attention to that matter.

My God, I'm gonna let you have your moment though, because you're right Hoosiers.

You guys are number one right now.

Baby.

Today you might not end that way, but today, as we said here, right now, it's.

I'm going to enjoy it.

Listen, people dismiss the Midwest.

They don't understand the lords and culture of the Midwest.

You know, I'm married to a woman who's from New York City, who grew up in Staten Island, who looks at everything as a flyover state, even though she went to Michigan.

But she sees that as like and a not Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Matt Mitchell's current home state.

Those states don't matter to people, but they matter to me.

Okay, so today we are going to give them their due.

Chris Farley changed my opinion about the Midwest.

That's why I will say that, Man, I did not think there's a sense of humor in that cluster.

But Chris Farley, you opened my eyes.

It's all sense of humor.

It's all kindness and sense of humor in the Midwest.

New Orleans plus three and a half at Atlanta actually moved down to three now even with the Olave news, because everybody has been piling in from the wise guy perspective on the Saints, and as you noted, this is a wise guy week.

It's not a huge public week.

But man, Atlanta has been playing great.

To me, this is really about Tyler Schuckrookie of the Year game, and I don't love.

I don't love that A Lave is out and we'll know so much more about Tetero McMillan, who's now the odds on favorite from the day before, could have a huge impact on what happens with Tyler Shuck.

Yeah, and it's brutal losing alive.

Like he's just been brutal so good.

It feels like every time they draw up some type of play for him to get one on one and he's just automatic.

Feels like in the end zone was shucked.

They've just had such great chemistry, especially down the stretch here.

And you know, maybe, like I said, maybe I'm too biased, too close to I'm just happy at least see that pros are actually betting the same side with me, because not gonna lie.

I got a little word when I got up to three and a half, I go, oh my god, now they're giving us the hook on this.

I could not believe that Kirk was now minus three and a half at home.

But Kirk got to give him props, Like going through the tape watching these last couple of weeks, you know he's instill these Kirk games where he just is so immobile in the pocket, he looks so totally lost against the right type of defense.

But overall, I got to give him a ton of props the way he's been playing down a stretch here, and I think he's earned the right to be a starter next season.

Might not be for Atlanta, but some team.

You got to give this guy a chance at this point, like he totally has come back from this Achilles injury where you know, last year we talked about he couldn't push off his back foot.

I watch a tip.

He's pushing off that back foot, no problem.

He's stepping into throws really good throws downfield.

So matchup wise for us with the Saints team, what I'm trying to hang my hat on is what we talked a little bit about is you know, they're actually pretty good against the past.

Their weakness has been the rush.

And as much as love and everything Robinson's getting in this, you know what he just did in the two prime time games back to back the last time they played, the Saints did really well at bottling up Jon Robinson.

Like they're they're a team that I've so they see him twice a year and they have so in his entire career.

You know, we always talk to divisional teams.

They have a different read on these in these type of games.

So all right, I do think there are ways for them, the Saints to attack defensively, and we've already talked about shuck.

People might think he's dead in these games, and he just always finds a way to come back.

He's been that way since he's been a starter, where you know, he just keeps on slinging it.

And that game against Tennessee where they're down thirteen, they never looked worried.

He kept pushing the ball down, feeling obviously we got lucky, right they were kind of dead, and all of a sudden, the war got strip sacked for that touchdown that brought spark to that Saints team.

But you know, the Saints have always found a way since Huck's become the starter, to find ways to win.

So U plus three and a half with this kid and this offensive way they've been moving the ball, I feel like we always have the opportuny to get the back door here.

So I really, I really was hoping that maybe I could talk myself out of this one if it's stay at two and a half, but the fact that it's three and a half never gonna avoid it.

Love this number for this Saints team, and they've just been absolutely covering machine down the stretch here.

Simon.

I think what you're saying about Kirk Cousins when you watch them on film right now, and the way he's able to push off is.

You like that.

Do you get it?

I do, But I thought it was gonna know other hoosier reference.

I'm kind of heartbroken.

I thought you're gonna bring it back to the Who's years.

I'll find a way.

You needn't.

Don't you worry.

It's twenty twenty six, my friend, new year, the name sense of humor.

Don't worry about me because I'm so old.

I can't change, right, can.

Change your body.

DNA totally changes every seven years.

I believe it, totally reed.

Does you can change that?

You choose not to change.

Unfortunately that's the problem.

Well, now you really do sound like my wife.

Cleveland at Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is a seven and a half point favorite.

I don't see how we're walking away from this.

Like the in the last forty eight hours, I love this game even more.

I might bet some altlines in Cincinnati.

I just think they're gonna go out there and fling it.

They don't give a shit.

They can say they're building on next year, it doesn't matter.

Joe Burrow just wants to go out and have a good time and play some ball and end the year on a high note and sling it to Jamar Chase and forty two.

That's my call.

Now, did something happen that made you like it more?

You just just like it because you like it more.

I like it because I like him.

I don't know if I miss miss something, but yeah, I'm right there with you.

Like I talked, this is the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out, plays hard.

Their offense has been rolling.

I know they did have that horrible game, Like you said, Joe Burrow was contemplating a life and if he's happier or not, and then went out and totally put up zero against a Ravens defense that has been suspect all season.

Since then, he's you know, he's been lighted up and that's just what we expected Joe Burrow.

When he's got Chase Higgins both playing, it's an offense that's an absolute juggernaut.

The only thing that's been missing was the blocking.

And you know, I keep talking about the offensive line.

You're gonna look at the numbers since Joe Flacco took over, they've been at top fifteen some weeks, top ten offensive line of pass protection, which is just blowing my mind when I look at this team, and it really has been the interior, like the guards have been playing better.

Everything just really impressive how the Bengals have turned around that offensive line.

And if you're a Bengals fan, maybe another thing you could picture Joe Burrow to'd be like you got to come back next year.

Right the offensive line we've totally rebuilt.

It's better where it felt like two weeks ago his foot was kind of out the door, like he was leaving it open to be like I can move on potentially next year where I think he'd come back.

This exact type of game where we talked about chat.

This is a type of game they'll win big to kind of launch off into the offseason of like see momentum we ended the season.

This is what we can be.

And I'll give out the stab one more time.

This Browns team off a straight up win since last year, zero to six against the spread, losing those games by almost eleven points per game.

So they're not covering by eleven points per game, I should say, so, they've just been absolutely terrible.

It's exact spot.

They're just a team that does not not to handle winning and that we joke all the time, but it really is a young team at its core, right this Browns team.

They nailed this draft.

I mean I went back and look, they probably coming to this year, they're probably have my highest grade for what they drafted this past draft class, but not the quarterback.

But I've already talked about Sanders has been great as like the worst quarterbacks since he's taken over as a starter, even worse than Geno Smith somehow, which shocked me when I looked at the stats.

But you feel like this is a total game where he just cannot keep up with Joe Brown that offense.

So I'm with Chad, give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half.

The real question, Simon, And I want Matt Mitchell to note this.

I want him to remember this.

I want him to play this when we get to August and we're doing our team by team in division breakdowns and we're doing our quarterback rankings.

Are we suckers?

Are we looking at Joe Burrow and his last six games and saying, oh my god, the guy was dominant and this offensive line was good.

And are we thinking the value on the Bengals is going to be too high to win the division because they're going to be playing a relatively bad schedule, and are we going to all of a sudden be going all in in value?

Are we going to be as the Hoosiers yet, like used to say about their friends on their border state, are we going to be Illinois suckers?

And are we going to go all in backing Joe Burrow in the Bengals.

I want us to remember this.

I want us to be smart about this.

I don't want us to get crazy, because something's always going to happen to screw up that bet.

Well, I'll say this.

My one buddy turning me and said, this is the only division of football that they could have all four teams have a different starter come next year Week one, with all the drama, with so more what we've heard from Joe Burrow, uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers, and the unknown obviously of the Browns and what they're going to do.

And I was like, I, you're right, I've probably never even thought about That's probably the only division of my lifetime that's ever been in that unique spot of having all four new starters come Week one next year.

Two years ago, this was the most competitive division in football.

Remember, all teams had season win totals of eight and a half or higher.

Yeah, it's like insane how quickly the league changes Dallas a three and a half point favorite at the New York Giants.

We are very public on this.

We both like Dallas.

You're explaining the wise guys, like the way Jackson Dark can move the ball around.

Definitely on the public side here because we do have reverse line movement with the public coming in on the Cowboys, but the line moving in the direction of the Giants doesn't have to get into the contest for me.

But I'm not seeing it with the Giants.

And then I hate these step of ones because it's like either side, I feel like I'm leaving money on the table where it's like the line movements scared me enough where I'm not putting as much in the Dallas and it's making me rethink where maybe I'm overlooking this Giants team too much and this is probably a Giant spot.

But I told you in my life is a better with Dak.

I blindly bet him in this exact spot right when he's playing a bad divisional team below five hundred.

Dak beats the crap buy of these type of teams in the exact spot.

He just seems to win these games big.

You know, maybe once again there's something I'm missing, Maybe there's a cold front or a storm coming in on Sunday.

I don't think there is.

Like I checked the weather.

It looks pretty good.

I just don't know why Dak being outdoors in the cold or the line moving as much as it has off.

I just don't know what it's moved off.

Right, it's moved off professional money.

So you know there's nothing going on injury wise for either team.

Right, was the Cowboys cut Digs or it did?

Said with the Packers Travon Diggs.

Yeah, so I don't know.

It's it's like he doesn't matter.

He wasn't doing anything for the Cowboys anyway.

So really bizarre line movement here, and like like Chad said, we know it's the public side with Cowboys, but it's it's Dak and Dallas against a bad team.

Like I said, this is a long term winner.

Taking fish with Dak usually wins these games pretty big.

So he's another guy that you know, it's not his fault.

His team's been as bad as they were this year.

He's he's has great numories.

He's performed basically every week he's had a couple letdown games, so that's usually against really good defenses.

That's so much against the Giants team that yes they have a pass rush, but that secondary is just terrible, so terrible, you expect him to throw over the field.

With Ceedee, Lamb and Pickens obviously playing for that new contract.

Green Bay and Minnesota, we talked about this one has moved from five and a half on Sunday night when we talked about it, said you got to grab it to seven.

We don't know who the Packers quarterback is going to be.

We do know that they recently signed Desmond Ridder to the practice squad and we expect them to rest a lot of starters.

So that's why this game has moved from five and a half to seven.

The only reason it isn't moving more is because Max Brosmer is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings as far as we know.

So like in terms of value, in terms of contest, I mentioned it only because of the Desmond Ridder news.

I don't think there's a play to be had here if you are getting this number at seven.

Yeah, and I'm obviously investing in the Vikings, but if you don't have a single penny invested in the Vikings.

You have no bet on this game.

A couple of books have popped green Bay seven and a half.

I mean, with all the unknown, that to me is the position you want to be on at this point.

You're getting now a touchdown and a half where it could be Malik Willis, which is that's a big deal.

Like if he is a player now, if it's as a rider, obviously, I think you're deader than Debt.

I can't see him moving the ball that well, especially after one week of practice against this Vikings defense.

But yeah, it's a weird game because the numbers moved too much to me, Like I like the Vikings.

You can still get anything under seven.

But like I said, a bunch of bookser popping seven and a half.

I just I cannot give out the Vikings with a third string quarterback at seven and a half without knowing who the green Bay quarterback is.

If it's the third or fourth string guy, Yeah, I have no problem taking Minnesota if you want a ton of points.

But yeah, this is what's tough about this week.

The lines moved so much just because the pros are hitting it so early.

And yeah, this game I really am shocked to see you getting up to seven and a half.

Hopefully like you, you know, listen to the show.

You were able to get the five and a half on Minnesota, even the six and a half we gave it on Tuesday.

But yeah, at this point, the number to me is we have too much for me to really give out the Vikings on minus seven LA Chargers.

We talked about it twelve and a half point underdogs at Denver.

I'm shocked this one hasn't moved to thirteen.

I was really hoping it would because I wanted to bet it at thirteen.

One book actually has it, A very public book has it at eleven and a half.

But like, this is an imminently intriguing matchup to me because the Charger's defense is still good, and that's who's going to be defending against Bo Nicks.

I don't talk about unknowable.

Why is Trey Lance to me a ten point difference from Justin Herbert.

I don't know that he should be, and so I think he presents a dynamic with his legs that's a little bit different than what the Broncos have been able to prepare for.

So it just feels like it's way too high to me.

Yeah, I actually went in luck to see what is the difference just from my model, and honestly, it's right around that jet.

I think, yeah, I had it a nine point difference.

So some of that likes, you know, shit on Herbert because it's fun because his fans think he's something that he's not, which is.

Top five quarterback.

Yeah.

I think he's a good quarterback, just not top five quarterback.

But I told you this is all pros, Like this is just simply a pros versus the book type of game.

And yeah there's hard rock, just move to twelve while we're doing a live.

So clearly there's still money coming on the charters even late.

But I just want to let people don't be scared off, Like you look at all the splits, you're gonna see all the tickets, all the money on the charters team.

Like I said, I think it's simply just professionals.

I don't still know anyone Joe public messing this game.

Less they're throwing, you know, the Broncos in a five and a half teaser or taking the Broncos money line.

That just I just cannot see the public line up whe there's other games are gonna want to bet the Broncos have disappointed right as a favorite.

I've talked about Nick's season two and nine is a favorite against the spread.

He's just struggled in this spot.

And you know, Chad, Chad talked about a little bit here with Trey Lance.

It's it is a obviously a step down from Herbert, but the legs I feel like mitigate a lot of it.

Well, you've seen Herbert do so well.

Obviously he's going to passing the ball.

Herbert has bailed them out a ton with his legs, and that's what it's gonna happen a lot here with Trey Lance.

He's going to be on the run a ton.

And shockingly saw the Chargers are going to play a lot of their starters from their offensive line just because those guys need work.

Like if you look at the grades, they're basically thirty second, thirty first and almost ever Yeah, category blocking wise, and you know they obviously need to work in the past block and run blocking.

This is the perfect thing to do it against.

The Broncos have one of the best fronts in all of football.

So Trey Lance, he's gonna be running for his life.

But like Chad just said, this feels like a little bit too much of a movement with the Herbert news, Like, if it was Herbert in this game, what is this a three point two and a half point type of spread?

Ten points feels like a lot.

So if you do hear this and you can'tet a twelve and a half, I would grab because I do think the pros keep betting this down.

And like Chad said, there's one book already shown eleven and a half.

I think a couple of books will follow suit as the week goes along.

Here, Keenan Allen a lot of incentives in this game.

I don't know if he's going to be playing, but if he does, look for those Keenan Allen props, folks, because if there's anything that there that's like, it could be the perfect scenario.

Like he's playing.

They don't really have anything to lose, so just sling the ball.

Find a way to get Keenan Allen his seven hundred and fifty grand and incentives.

If he has six plus receptions, take a look, it's more than seven yards.

I'll tell you that much.

Detroit plus three at Chicago Caleb Williams is two hundred and seven yards away from being the first Chicago Bear ever to get four thousand passing yards in a season.

Ben Johnson was asked about this in his past conference and he said he thought it was an arbitrary number.

Who cares?

Reporters laughed and said, you must be new here, because everyone here cares quite a bit.

I looked at Caleb's two year stats through week seventeen in his second year, forty five touchdown passes and only twelve picks.

So last night, my buddy who was over asked me while we were watching the game, the Miami Ohio State game, if you were to redraft the twenty twenty four quarterback draft, what would you do.

I still had Caleb number one, and I and I Drake made number two.

Yeah, we all overreact, right.

I think Jane Daniels was the unanimous number one pick coming to this yes, from that draft.

So yeah, it's just I saw people are saying, is this the greatest QB draft ever?

A draft that I think Jane Daniel's the only one with the actual playoff win.

So it's just we like the crown them early.

That's what we do here.

We'd like the crown them early, but I'd never wear it.

I said from the get go, Caleb was my number one guy.

I mean one of my favorite shows ever was I think it was we had on Seth Rollins was trying to talk you and Seth Rolind is down about getting rid of Justin Fields and how it's a good thing and Caleb Williams is a million times better in sets of the Upside, And it's just funny looking back right now, It's like there's no question.

Right ones are proven winner that can make the big time throw.

The other one is a crazy athlete that can never find a way to win games.

So years, yeah, Caleb is just you see why he's you know, the guy was hyped up in high school Seth wickershamptoas his dad had him getting interview prepped when he was in high school getting ready for talking to the media for college in the NFL.

Like, this kid always has been the guy.

The question was always going to be can he be a leader of men?

Can this guy lead mint?

Can guys play hard for him through a whole season?

Does he have that type of personality type?

And you've seen it now he is what we always talk about right.

You need a quarterback be the type of alpha guy.

He seems like he is it.

You know, that game last week really was shocking.

I just couldn't believe how great Caleb played in a game that had just the same amount of press should get the one seed.

So I am not shocked talking about this game to see the pros coming on this Bears team.

Right.

They have been what we've talked about all season.

They play teams close, they always find ways to win late, and that's just their identity, right.

They're just a slug it out type of team, and they have something the Lions don't have, which is a run game, Like let's break it down for real, this Lion's team.

They can now fall back on the run game like they have in the past.

A lot of these games have fallen onto golf shoulders where this Bears team and they need to pick up four or five chunks to give you know, a third and five or second and five.

To Caleb, they've been great to put them in that position.

The Lions have not been the same.

I do think that is why so many pros think that this is the difference here.

The Bears team will always be in a better position.

But I think me and Chi I have talked a little bit about this Bears team.

We love them, but as a three point favorite, that's where I have to draw the line.

This is a team, like I talk, they play close games.

This Lions team, as bad as they've looked, there's still the number two, number three offense in all of football.

There's still a team that has moved the ball.

They've just been so let down by their defense.

So really unique spot, right, a really really unique spot in the sense that a couple of weeks ago the Lions were probably minus one here on the road, and the number has moved about four and a half points five points now because the Bears have been playing so well down the stretch of the lines, they've fallen off the cliff.

I mean that last loss, I mean could be more embarrassing.

That's why the public, yeah, totally out on them, right that.

That's, by the way, why I'm on this game is how bad that game was that last game.

Like, I'm fading the Bears brilliant and I'm betting into the Lions complete and total failings, which.

Again to me, is scary because this type of year, I really do think you are who you are, Like the Lions are exactly who they are if you go through and you look these last couple of weeks, Now this is who they are.

They've totally faltered here and fallen apart, and it's really golf.

Golf has just been absolutely terrible with the turnovers, holding on the ball too long, like it just feel like all of a sudden, he is zero pocket work and it's like he doesn't know there's a blitz coming.

He's about to get smacked in three seconds.

All of it.

Golf has been so bad.

But like you just said, this is the lowest we've been able to buy this Lions team.

And I don't know, four years with Campbell, like this is just feels like this is low as a guess since we bet on them when they were what zero to eight and they come out pulled out that one against the Minnesota Vikings.

So it's been a long time with this Lions team.

And yeah, it's really been to me about the numbers.

So we'll rob the books.

The books are going to destway need the Lions come Sunday, and that's a position I'm happy to be in.

So grabbed the three.

We'll see if we get lucky in three and a halfs a couple of three and a halfs pops.

But while we're doing to show Live hard Rock, just what to two and a half.

So there is some pro money coming on this Lions team.

Now.

Finally, Arizona the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams are seven and a half point favorites.

It's ticked up from seven to to seven and a half since I made it Chad's choice talk about you are who you are, and maybe I was leaning into a two hard for the Lions, but I'm definitely buying into a team that had a dreadful first half in prime time and then nearly won the game in the second half with the guy who probably should be the MVP and Matthew Stafford going against a team that really is who we think they are in the Arizona Cardinals.

It's at seven, it's moved up to seven and a half.

Still good with it, still like it.

Still want to put it in the contest Los Angeles Rams Fight Fight fight.

Yeah, and Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacation.

They're done, They're totally cooked, you know.

Last week saw some fight.

I think they had this crazy, crazy touchdown where Cincinaty couldn't tackle.

And also it was like a fourteen to fourteen point game.

The final score is thirty seven to fourteen, Like Cincinnati just totally whooped and opening up on the rest of the game.

And we've gone through it.

Every game they've just gotten blown out.

Even Atlanta beat them by a touchdown.

I think they beat him twenty six nineteen.

Yeah, they just like they they they they couldn't compete anymore.

Like the second half of the year.

They just stop being able to keep the games that were close in the first half of the year within contention and they just get blown out and they get blown out late.

And the last time they played.

Speaking of a reaction, the ramsay this same exact team, whereas in Arizona's a minus nine and a half point favorite.

So they're yeah, the numbers moved against them now that they're at home.

Makes no sense exactly.

It just shows how the public and general puck overreacts to it.

So this is gonna be a huge need for the book.

But every week over it plays against the Arizona's gonna be in need.

Obviously, but I'm with Jet.

It was an exact type of game that they need to get right in McVeigh.

You know it's not gonna be an easy week of practice, right, It's gonna be that really hell a week.

They need this.

They're gonna need to show up offensively and touch a little bit of the staff for in MVP stuff.

There's no way they don't hear that stuff inside the line.

There's no way they don't hear that.

Yeah, he's now not the favorite, and I'm sure he's seen that.

I think he has forty two touchdown passes.

Basically, if he throws for three touchdown passes, he'll have forty five touchdown passes and under ten interceptions.

Only two other quarterbacks in NFL history I've ever done that, Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers.

They both won the MVP this season.

They did that, So there is a little bit of historical data where certain numbers he needs to get to.

I think they look better to these beat writers and a lot of these people vote on MVP, and I'm sure you've seen it.

It's it's already been a heated week.

Patriots.

Oh my god, it's so much fun.

Dania Laski just getting killed because his agent reps Matthew Stafford's agent, and it's just they're coming for you.

If you have an opinion on this in your sports media, they're really coming for you.

And uh, you know, it's we talked a little bit about it.

I think Stafford came on the show.

He was over plus three hundred the MVP.

You've seen it come down a little bit just because when I said, it's like, this is opinionated award, there's no it doesn't matter if Drake made is the big favorite here.

It's it's really based on these opinions and how well Stafford's agent can sell it to all these people in media.

When, like I said, he's been around thirty seven years old, he's been around a long time.

That's going to ring true in a lot of these media guys when they go to vote.

So you know, we're all in on this Rams team.

This is another spot where Arizona.

We're really big on Arizona being a team that quit here.

That's really what we're banking on here, because if you just have a little bit of a letdown, like we've seen this RAMS team, we can be so motivated.

How do they not put up thirty five forty points.

We got this Arizona defense shed, so I know it's very chalky.

I'm a bet by you on Tuesday, but I'm supporting.

I love this Rams team.

It's a narrative award.

People in the media love a narrative.

Simon says was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season game of the year on Sunday Night Football.

We're both all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We're all in on Mike Tomlin rah rah, We're all in on the Steelers as an underdog.

We're all in on Aaron Rodgers.

I'm mostly in because I think this Ravens defense has proven to be a fraud against the pass.

As the season is going on.

They haven't gotten better.

They can be taken in the middle of the field.

They keep getting confused.

I'm tired of seeing Kyle Hamilton and Roquons with trying to work it out after a big play like they just haven't been good.

I'm betting against the Ravens.

I'm betting on Aaron Rodgers.

Let's roll, yeah, And it's such a fitting way for us in the season right on this gross game, taking the gross dog in a spot we always back Tomlins.

So you know, it's a really unique game since what Chad's talking about here, it's a team that you kind of throw out their records and you just blindly take the dog.

Historically, go down the record one more time, just because it's my will always be my favorite stat this series since two thousand and five, thirty twelve and three of the dog in this matchup seventy one percent in the regular season underdogs.

So, whether it's Tomlin's underdog or Harball's underdog, these two coaches on the matchup where which every team is the underdog twenty five and seven against the spread in their history.

It's crazy, it really is when you go back through all the data.

Especially you know when those Ben Roethlisberger years, right, they had the three bees, they were dominant offensively, they were playing against a banged up Flaco and a horrible Ravens team.

The Ravens kept winning those games, are covering and then they flipped.

When this Pittsburgh team has now been playing backups, they've been covering winning.

So I don't know about you, I'm hoping it's Lamar.

I know it sounds crazy, but we talked about Lamar with this injury to his legs, he's not had his superpower.

He's not had his legs, and that's that's such a weapon of his the miss where you saw it with Stup Huntley.

That felt like that was a big difference in that Green Bay game, like they just couldn't contain him, and when he would break out and he'd use his legs, that was such a weapon you saw that was lacking of that Ravens offense.

So we'll see today.

I think Lamar is participating their walkthrough.

You Hopefully he gets clear today and he should be the quarterback here and maybe we get a four net a four or four and a half by kickoff because Lamar is the quarterback.

But I'm grabbing the three and a halfter just in case the professionals do come and bet this one down.

Now.

I could see this one coming down so unique spot.

We love the Steelers here and we blindly bet it.

We will see what the injury news is with Lamar, but you know, I just can't see it affecting the line too much.

And most moves a point maybe a half a point he.

Did practice, he is, They are confident he will play.

That's the latest series.

So there you go, numbers.

Maybe it won't, maybe I'm wrong, Maybe it won't move because if Chad's give that infa, that means that the books have known that for a little bit.

They have not budged.

So that's that's really interesting.

So yet it's held at three and a half.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half.

Quick word from our sponsor at hard Rock Back.

We'll come back on either side.

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All right, salmon hunter, what are your biggest bets?

Pull up fose pants and be a man before I do it.

A couple asked about futures.

I'll do it super quick, just from before the season, asking what I have left from our show that got lost in the shuffle.

I basically need a miracle.

I need the bills to somehow for Super Bowl.

Futures this says I need a miracle.

I need the Bills some how to make the Super Bowl, to beat the forty nine ers at plus sixty five to one, So that's the one I've left.

Obviously, I gave out the Eagles to over the Chiefs.

That one's deader than dead, forty nine ers to be the ones in the NFC plus seven hundred still alive.

I couldn't believe it.

I gave out worst record Arizona Cardinals seventy five to one.

I have a couple of tickets on that one game away.

There are three I think three and thirteen are three and fourteen.

Obviously, the Raiders have two losses, so that one was really close to coming out and still alive.

Most receiving yards Jackson Smith ADJIGBA five to one.

He is leading by I think seventy yards.

So yeah, not not the best year for the future.

That's why we give out crazy long shots.

You're always crazy stuff for this week biggest bets.

Like I said, it's a little a little weird because it is the week before the playoffs and there's so much college football going on.

Biggest vision I took obviously early in the week, I took a large special on the Minnesota Vikings.

Took a large position just because I thought that Green Bay wouldn't be playing their starters.

I number has moved to luckily accordingly, I took a pretty big position on this, this forty nine Ers team at plus one and a half.

I'm a little worried about it because, like I said, it is the pros are so heavily on the other side.

So you know, if you want to join me in my prime my bigger bet for Saturday, I'll take Carolina up to seven and a half.

I'll take the forty nine Ers up to seven and a half.

It's probably minus one twenty, maybe minus one ten, just because Carolina's now is up back up the plus three.

The juice is in two bead, but I like both of them to cover at least being a touchdown underdog.

I just can't see the forty Niners game blun or Carolina again blend on these type of games.

Just you see timetime again, right, Teams fighting for a divisional divisional games that this sides playoff positioning tend to be very close games.

So I do like that.

I wouldn't tease it because teasers now are rip off.

I think if you tease this, it's like minus one forty.

You don't need the Panthers mine or plus nine and a half.

Just stake the number up to just as seven and a half.

That's me and one of my bigger bets.

And people know Chad's already talking a little bit about it.

Cincinnati, love that side, Love the Rams.

I'm just putting their money lines together, taking a pretty big bet on both those sides, just to win straight up.

But yeah, like I said, very very wonky week, it's just be careful because it's really the pros heading these lines.

The public usually set this week out just because it is such a wild week.

Speaking of money lines, money line underdog parlay.

My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot Dog.

I've got Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans love it, money line favorite.

You just mentioned two of them.

I had Cincinnati and the Rams.

I have Denver minus five and a half.

I got Minnesota.

I don't know it.

Like again, it's it's a weird week where like Dallas, I like, I like Philly.

I know Philly's playing their backups, but Tany McKee just looks like an absolute stud, Like I think this coulduld be a starter.

And this is the exact type of game where you know he knows he's playing for that right, he's playing for that Matt Flynn type of deal.

He wants that Matt Flynn money.

So yeah, I like the Eagles.

Now the numbers move so much.

I said, if you could got if you got a guy watching it, plus seven, that that was a really nice number.

But now that it's under seven, shout the Egos money line.

I think that's good value there.

So yeah, there's a bunch of ways you can mismash.

If you don't love the Devers, then we're line that Chad gave out.

I don't hate throwing Dallas's money line in their the Egos money line, but yet Rams money line.

Since these money line like these, we've seen time with taking them these big favorites in the week eighteen, these teams do tend to show up with these other teams.

They're already ready for that vacation.

They're just they're just there to get that paycheck.

Sure versus Square, Who do you got?

Uh?

I guess I got it, Doe, because I've just hyped it up so much of this point.

Give me give me the forty nine ers plus one plus one and a half.

I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals.

I'll take the seven and a half.

You are Rams seven and a half and then Bengals seven and a half.

I know I thought about that.

One of them is gonna lose obviously.

Now I don't know.

I'm win you.

I' drinking the koolid.

I like them both, all.

Right, listen, Happy New Year to everybody.

We're all Hoosiers today, go Indiana Hoosiers.

Fight, Fight Fight.

This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.

We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning.

You'll get the East drop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions we will regret.

Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube.

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I love you.

This ain't Ray Nitchkei and Dick Buck some Deacon Jones over there, So let's start kicking some hats.

This team is not better enough than not even good