Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by a hard brought Bet.

We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

This is the show that makes the Square Sharper.

It makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chadmilman, I am joined as always, Bye, my co hosts, my bff from my compadre, my companion professional better Simon Hunter.

Hello, Simon Chad.

How are we doing?

Brother?

I'm moving a little bit slowly today, so we got to pick it up.

We got to pick it up and we gotta find our five favorite picks.

This is the in the room easdropping version of the Sunday Sharper Square Show.

In the morning, You're all going to get to hear how we come to our conclusion.

Because we are human, we make decisions, we regret.

I have no doubt that will happen today.

Are you ready, my brother?

Let's do it all right?

Seattle minus thirteen at Tennessee.

We have liked this all week.

I will say we are starting to see signs even though it's a thirteen or hard rock bet that it is moving in the other direction.

It's one of the few big numbers that is moving in the other direction towards Tennessee shows.

Some wise guys are coming in on the Titans.

I don't see it.

I don't get it.

This is the best team that the Titans have played in the past few weeks.

It will go against their tendency to cover the back door.

I don't think the Seahawks have the same holes that their opponents the past few weeks, the Texans and the Chargers have.

I still like the Seahawks.

Here.

Is it one of our favorite five?

Yeah, I don't know, because it's tough because it is such a big number.

We don't like betting such big numbers like this.

So if we're gonna put one big number favorite in there, I think you know where I'm gonna go with that.

I don't know if I think I agree.

Yeah, but yeah, I still bet Seattle.

Still like Seattle.

But we talked earlier in the week.

There's some pros that really like Tennessee.

They've been making money off Tennessee, like we talked about, since they fired their head.

They've just been a backdoor covering machine.

And it's interesting, like you just said this number thirteen here, but a lot of books you see are going down to.

Twelve and a half.

Twelve and some even touched eleven and a half, So it's some real money coming in on Tennessee at this point.

And yeah, I think we're both on the same page where we don't see it.

We don't really get it because the Seahawks team to us, there's just a very dominant defense where when Sam Donald puts it together, it's a great offense as well.

So I just I can't see it.

If I was gonna take a position, maybe I'll throw a little bit on Tennessee first half.

But everything I've bet so far is just purely Seahawks and the number.

But like you said, in our contest, we're playing the number here and I'm not thrilled to try be forcing in a big Seahawks number at thirteen and a half, and that's what it is in our contest.

So I'm gonna have to pass on that.

One, especially when the next game we're talking about the New York Giants at the Detroit Lions.

The Lions have moved to twelve and a half and moved to twelve and a half after our Thursday show.

We've been typing the Lions all week at ten at ten and a half, they were your Simon says there were some rumors Jackson Dart might play this week, it's going to be Jamis.

I always was betting into it thinking it was Jamis.

We love the Lions here.

I think it's going to be impossible for us to ignore the Lions as the big favorite against the Giants.

Yeah, it's been my favorite all week, big favorite.

And uh, like you said, the Dart and Neuve, that was the most shocking part of Yeah, Dark Dark getting put out as moved this two and a half three points, like hard Rock now is up to thirteen.

A lot of other books are up to thirteen and a half.

The more public BOOKSHO up to thirteen and a half.

So just shows you this early morning, which we knew was going to happen, right, the public was going to come in heavy on this Detroit side, but surprisingly the pros were betting the Giants.

It was a Dart bet, which again I just I get he's highly talented.

It never made sense though, It never made.

Sense, like you're you're really betting heavy into Dark coming off a head injury in this matchup that I'm not sure you can exploit really, But yeah, the we obviously feel way more comfortable now the lines going the other way and we have the best of the number, which I hope if you listen to the show did because our contest, like you just said, it's minus ten and a half.

So I still would bet the lines if you could get the twelve and a half.

I just I think people listen to this is going to be already thirteen thirteen and a half, which again I'm not going to let scare me off.

It's as much praise you want to get.

Jameis Winston.

I think he threw for twardy yards zero touchdowns last week, Like he's not he just doesn't have the weapons.

Like we've seen Jameis play really well, especially in Tampa and different offenses he's had.

He had great weapons there.

He doesn't really have that with this Giants team.

So Giants got the cover last week, the Pros they try to come back on him this week, thinking it was gonna be Jackson Dart.

They totally misread it.

And yeah, I'm just happy we stuck through our Detroit love and like I said, it's it's moving.

If you can get it below the thirteen and a half, I would try to do that.

Now never even made sense to me.

It never occurred to me that Jackson Dart was going to be the reason why this line would be holding it ten and a half from moving up to twelve and a half that he was out.

This was Detroit all the way all week.

New England at Cincinnati.

It's been a tricky one.

The Bengals are seven seven and a half point underdogs depending on where you look, it's everywhere.

If you can get the seven and a half, you should go get it.

The Cincinnati Bengals, with Joe Flacco starting, are going to be our rocket.

A hard plays hard rock better the week.

Oh what a lot.

Look, we were betting into this early in the week when we thought it was going to be Joe Flacco.

Then the rumors came out it might be Joe Burrow that moved under six and a half.

When it became Flacco went back up to seven and a half.

Nothing in my opinion or position has changed.

The Bengals are just the right side here.

Yeah, and like you said, it's I honestly am shocked that Burro didn't get his way and able to play this game.

They said, they're just trying to protect them because it's a short week, right, They have a game I believe Thursday and Thanksgiving against the Ravens.

So you know that makes sense, right, they're trying to protect himself in this matchup.

But I am also shocked the number only moved by a point, which was interesting, right.

Because it got down to two and a half.

Yeah, I was hoping it would get up to eight eight and a half like it was ear in the week.

But the books, like you just said, they're holding firm at seven and a half, and even hard Rock is still stuck at seven.

So pretty unique scenario.

We know what we're been into here since these defenses atrocious.

If Flaco throws a pick six, we're probably gonna be burned.

But we keep talking about this new England team as good as they are.

If do you have weaknesses, you can exploit.

This SEXTU year a really good matchup for Cincinnati Offensively, it's just all about Kenjoe Flack would keep up with this scoring race because we've seen Drake may even he has a thron for three undred yards this year.

I think he's leading the league in passing yards.

I know that's a part because he doesn't have a bye week yet, but it just shows how consistent, the offense is right.

Even on bad days, may still throw for two ndred yards and get putting his team in best positions to win.

So you know, we gave up the stat they won age straight.

They're due for a letdown game, do for a Walls.

Just a couple of teams like that this week them and the Eagles feel like the prime example of teams they're just due for a loss and a bad spot because it's just matchup wise not great for them.

So in our.

Contest, Chad, we're never gonna avoid it.

Cincinnati Bengals are plus eight and a half.

So this is the game I put in for us whatever that was Tuesday or Wednesday, and I just knew doesn't matter if it's gonna be Joe Burrow or Flako, We're gonna be playing as long as one of the Joe's, Like I said all week, we'll be on this number.

So you know, Flacco set his shoulders good.

We gotta trust him and take this and play this matchup.

Detroit and Cincinnati.

We're on it was it was always going to be later in the day when we're talking about the one we left out and the one we've kept in.

We know that these were always going to be in no matter what, So we cannot walk away from the idea that, oh, if only we had left one of these out, because we're not another one.

I have felt strongly all week.

Chad Choice Arizona is a two and a half point underdog at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I said on Tuesday it was Chad Choice at two and a half, but I told everybody wait for it to get to three.

It got to three and immediately got that back down to two and a half.

Maybe I'm being irrational.

I love the Cardinals here.

I feel like the Cardinals, which a Kobe Brissett, are a different offense.

It doesn't matter that Marvin Harrison Junior isn't playing.

He'll just throw Mike Wilson into one hundred and eighty five yards.

He'll find Trey McBride for ten receptions.

I think that this Jaguars team is winning on the guts and guy and smarts of Liam Kohane, not anything to do with Trevor Lawrence, who I think he's trying to diminish the impact he can have.

Negatively, Liam Cohne is trying to diminish the impact Trevor Lawrence gonna have on this game.

And also the Cardinals might be getting back two of their four defensive backs they have been missing for the past few weeks when this defense has been beginning to creator.

So I love the Cardinals here, Simon.

I love him, and I don't think we can leave him.

Out, all right, I'll put him in for you.

I like the Cardinals.

Why I bet it, Like you said, it's it's a type of number.

I would have put a lot more if they weren't historically horrible defensively, this Cardinals team.

But like we keep saying, it feels like a nice spot for.

This Cardinals team, a team that you know, as much as people don't want to believe it, because like you talked about, the Jags are six and four, They're not that much better when you really break it all down than the three and seven Cardinals right now.

So it's not shocking that this is a huge play by the public dis Draguars team.

But it is shocking to me how even the money is.

Like you said, the professionals have really come in on this Cardinals side.

So I like it enough to put it in.

You seem to really love it, So I'm happy to put this as one of work five.

All Right, our brass balls bet of the week was New Orleans.

I think we got it at minus two against Atlanta.

To me, this wasn't a bet on the Saints or believing that they are a competitive team, or the Tyler Shock is all of a sudden going to be a serviceable NFL quarterback.

It's really about betting against Kirk Cousins, betting against the fact Drake London is out, Drake London, who accounts for something like forty percent of the team's passing yards.

So to me, this is entirely betting against Atlanta, not betting on New Orleans.

How are we feeling today?

Yeah, I can't believe it.

Obviously, if you've been watching the number, A ton of professional money's coming on this falcon side, because I got to two and a half hard Rock here in Jersey's down to one and a half on this game, so it looks like that's where everyone's going.

They're moving this line back down and yeah, this.

Will be a line I love like you do, where you know it's not ideal aves for we don't really believe in this kids, shuck, but we believe in the matchup for the Saints team, and we just want to fade Kirk Cousins while we possibly can.

So I'm just looking at the splits right now.

Again, every book is different.

A couple of bookmakers I've talked to you, they said it was pretty split money.

But just look at the really public books right now.

It's a lot of Falcons money.

So pretty interesting that the public is coming in so heavy on this Falcons team.

Like we said, it's the Saints off.

Of bye week, you would think they'd be able to prepare and play pretty well here in the spot against a Falcons team that's missing their best weapon in Drake Lynn.

I'm I guess Bijon Robinson's their best weapon, but people know what I mean.

Drake London.

He's just been an absolute game changer for this team and their whole offensive passing game runs through him.

So we already think Kirk Cousins terrible.

Now you're taking away his number one option.

I just I can't get behind this Atlanta team.

So if it's if it's our last one in, I'm cool with it.

They're like, we'll see how you feel about these other games are gonna bring up here, But Saints right now are minus one and a half in our contest.

That's what I bet them on.

I like the Saints.

It's just I'm a little worried about taking shook here.

I'm not gonna lie.

Yeah, I am too, but at one and a half, I kind of like the number, and I just have no faith in the Falcons.

Their lack of offensive ability here worries me.

And the one thing that I would say about the Saints, who again, I have not been a Saints backer all season that I think this will be the first time I bet them.

I do think defensively they're competent against the run, and you mentioned Bijon.

The one thing the Falcons we know they're gonna have to do is rely on Bijon and the running game.

So if there is a matchup that favors or gives the Saints some credibility, it is against the runs.

Right now, we've locked in Detroit, We've locked in Cincinnati, we've locked in Arizona.

We like the Saints.

There are a couple of games that I think we still have to talk about to get to our final one slash two Philadelphia at Dallas.

This thing is settled at three I've started to come around on Dallas.

I know you've been betting into Dallas all week.

I think that I don't want to overstate Dallas's defense getting better off of one game against the Las Vegas Raiders, but I do think they have improved, and I think with Quinn Williams, they all of a sudden are a lot more competent defensively and getting guys back from the injured list.

But I do worry a lot about the Eagles offense right now and not having Lane Johnson.

Yeah, and I honestly, I don't really trust this Cowboys defense is really I think both of us are just fading the Seagles offense or just something seems wrong with them.

Like you said, now without Lane, it's gonna be interesting how they do because we've seen those trends like Jalen Hurst has not been good without Lane Johnson on that field.

And you know, once again.

Another game where I try to tell people a really smart group that came in very heavy taking position on this Cowboys team, and I just knew this number was gonna disappear, and it did, right The three and a half has disappeared, So lucky enough for us, our contest is three and a half.

I was never gonna let us not take this for our picks.

It's just a unique spot we have to play.

And even if I don't believe in this Cowboys defense, I just I think there's something terribly wrong with this Eagles offense.

And as much as I want to believe, this is a right spot for them, Like you said, Lane is out, the Avante Smith is up in the air.

He traveled individually, separate from the team.

He's got a lot of stuff going on in his personal life, so you know, there is a possibility DeVante Smith might be a healthy scratch.

And now that's even more of a weakness to this team.

So for the Eagles, of course, this is a get right game.

But I just look at this Dallas team and you know, I think offensively, we talked about it in the Week one I will always favor this Dallas team.

And they're playing a team the week number two corner, and that's what the Eagles have.

They have a week number two corner.

So you know, the Eagle strength or is that d line, That linebacking corps.

Downfield passing has been their weakness all season.

That seems like we're dak is really excelled, especially with Ferguson.

The tight ends really showed up this year.

So I just look at the matchup wise.

I love it for Dallas here and once again we love the numbers, so I wouldn't be scared off while the Cowboys taking the three.

I've said it, I don't want people touching the Eagles at all, money line or anything else.

It's just I've been warned myself, so I'm trying to warn people off of it.

It just seems like the pros of circlust is a trap game and that this is a loss on the Egle schedule, which I know you can't repre head around it, but it's just like that Thursday night game.

I couldn't wrap my head around them telling me that Houston was a trap game for Bills and they're gonna lose that game out right.

You gotta see it to believe, and I feel it's the same thing here.

Well, we'll get the vibes early on here if this is a good pick or not.

And like I always say, the Eagles, their offense is.

Gonna break through eventually.

But the way it is right now, just going back and rewatching that game you can see the receivers don't believe in the offense.

I don't think Hurts believes in it.

So I just think it's totally dysfunction right now on this Eagles side and the Cowboys, you're getting a great number anything three and above.

Yeah, uh again again again again, we're good on the Cowboys at plus three, it's not a question for us.

So the Cowboys will be in our contest.

That's four.

So now we're looking at the Saints as being the fifth one in Do we talk about the Colts?

Are we talking about Carolina?

No matter what?

Interesting to me.

It's got to be a road team because right now we're sitting on five home teams, which isn't isn't it ideal?

And uh, you know we basically this week we have a weird thing.

We love all the home teams.

I do love some road teams, but I don't know how Coffee you feel him?

So two road dogs.

I really like his Pittsburgh plus two and a half and the Colts plus three and a half.

Now, this Colts team, I get it.

The hesitation, right, it's Daniel Jones outdoors against a really good defense, and we've seen him struggle in this exact spot.

But they're getting their number one cornerback, Like, that's a big deal to me.

The fact that Ward is coming back in this matchup.

They have him in sauce now in the field together.

That's the first time they've had this matchup all season.

Because I don't know if you remember, I think Ward got a cushion in their warm ups right he ran into a teammates.

I don't know if you read about it, it's terrifying, and it's like, again, I'm not trying to get a whole ct ran, but he shouldn't be He shouldn't be playing in this game.

He said he did.

He didn't know who he was for a little bit.

For a day or two after it, It's like, what are we doing here?

But again, he's their best corner.

He is gonna play, he's back.

We have to take advantage of that scheme.

I think that's a huge matchup.

And this is another number where I thought, just like the Cowboys, this would just be threes across the board.

But talk to a lot of pros, like we've talked about, there's some trends that really favor this Chiefs team, and they love this Chiefs team, and I think it's them just chasing the ghost of the past.

It was like last week.

I mean, we saw the Chiefs.

Get up to what four and a half before kickoff against Denver.

So it's like the pros keep being into and they keep getting burned, and they keep saying, well, no.

It's this week.

So I'm not gonna let the professional might scare me off.

I'm gonna dig in here on this Colts team.

I just really love the number in the side, and I think Mahomes will win this game.

They're the more desperate team.

I just feel like they need a lot of things to go where they really do need a Daniel Jones meltdown to me to cover this number, just because looking at the matchups, Jonathan Taylor's gonna be able to get his I think run wise, he'll be able to get his against a Chiefs defense.

I struggled in some aspects against good running games.

And you know, I think it's a big deal.

They got their number one cornerback where Chiefs offense, we kept saying it last week.

We kept expecting Mahomes to save people at them there, right, you expect them when you got the ball back to drive the field and he didn't.

He punted the back to bon next who drove the field and got the field goals.

So it's just about the number chat.

I know you don't love it.

It's a little bit of a scary spot because it's just Daniel Jones and Arrowhead.

But I really liked the three and a half here.

And if I can't get you on that one, because I talk into Pittsburgh against the Bears.

Well, would you rather do Pittsburgh or Carolina plus seven against San Francisco.

K.

I just there's something about the Carolina I just don't like.

I mean, I'm gonna bet it because it is seven and a half now at almost every book, But I just I don't get it.

I do not get the number movement.

And they were taking all Panthers money.

Like I've talked to four different books over the last two days, and you know, the one pit Boss was joking me, it's just like where actually begging for four nunders money right now?

I'm like, we're gonna get it.

People are to come in on their money line parlay is I just I was shocked here.

There's so much public faith in Carolina and also for us in our contest.

They're six and a half, so I just I can't get there on them.

Chat.

I'm sorry, Uh, I'd much rather do Colts than stealers.

Colts.

Yeah, so I know you saw the Bears injury report though, right.

Yeah, Look, they're missing all three of their linebackers.

All three, and I think between the three guys they are starting have two snaps between them in the NFL or something ridiculous like that.

It's it just feels I got terrible, terrible spot for the Bearers, but I get it.

We're like, we're we don't even know if Rogers is the quarterback.

Honestly, I don't care.

But if I'm just strictly going off the number, I prefer obviously the Colts because we're getting the three and a half hook.

That's kind of what that's my thinking is.

I think they're two and a half versus three and a half, So give me the Colts getting more than a field goal rather than the Steelers, who and the Bears who have been cardiac every single week and who knows, you.

Know, I'm cool, that's right now.

We'd have Colts sincey Detroit, Arizona, Dallas.

So we got and so we're taking out New Orleans?

Yeah, I had them as our fifth.

Is there a I mean, if there's another thing you'd rather switch out, like the only one I honestly am worried about for us is the Bengals, just like last week.

Yeah, of course, it's like, are we gonna get burned again by this Bangals team that we just know is atrocious defensively?

But I just I can't avoid it.

Eight and a half is such a good number.

Yeah, I don't want to take out the Bengals.

I can't believe I'm saying that.

I feel like the Colts are a better bet right now than that the Saints are a better bet than the Colts.

I mean, I get it.

It feels like it's a nice number of we're fading Kirk.

I just I don't know if I can let us just put five home teams, so we have to at least take one road team.

Why though, I just.

I don't want to choose five road teams.

Are gonna win if we choose the five road teams then, right.

But I'm saying like we're in a spot where we're on again.

It's just I'm just looking at it just doesn't look right to have all five of our picks be home teams.

I know it sounds stupid, but these little things that these little quirks of my chat saves us usually when I look at weird things like this.

So if you want to own it, I'll let you own it.

If you want to do Saints over Colts, I just I think it's a mistake.

Well that's where it makes it fun.

I don't know.

Uh, I don't know, man, I'm completely torn.

I bet into the Saints much more aggressively than I've bet into the Colts.

You bet into the Colts, I think, much more aggressively than you bet into the Saints.

Yeah, that's definitely true.

Last week, I think it was on me and I took I think I ended up taking the Panthers instead of the Raiders.

So this week, why don't we go with you and you could take the Colts instead of the Saints, and we'll make for fun drama later in the day.

All right, it's the final.

The final five will be Colts plus three and a half Dallas plus three and a half in the contest, but we still love them at three the Cards plus two and a half.

Since he's at seven and a half, but they're eight and a half in the contest.

We like them at both Numbers and Detroit.

There are ten and a half in the contest.

If you can find the twelve and a half for Detroit, you still want to get the twelve and a half.

Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet.

There are three things to be thankful for this week.

Family, food and football.

And thanks to hard Rock Bet, you can easily sneak in bets while you're crazy Uncle goes on his annual rant about the good old days.

Sign up today and you could feast with one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

Just place a five dollars bet.

If it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also one hundred and fifty dollars in extra bonus bets.

That's an offer you can't pass up, even on a full stomach.

Not sure where to place your first bet, head over to hard Rock Bets stats Hub and it'll help you out.

It's loaded with trends, streaks, and stats to help god your picks.

Numbers don't lie, and neither does the data in there.

Here's one that stood out to me.

When the Packers are home favorites, Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in ten straight games.

Man, we love Josh Jacob's touchdown bets.

Plus this week on hard Rock Bet, you get three fifty percent profit boosts, one for each Thanksgiving Day football game.

Boost your same Game Parlay or SGP max.

See your bets pay extra winnings.

There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got.

Any day of the week, download the hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit.

Pay a ball in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminol Tribe of Florida.

In Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC.

In all other states.

Must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play.

Terms and conditions apply.

Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three three play Wise.

In Indiana, if you were someone you know as a gambling problem and it wants help, call one eight hundred nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia Simon.

Does it scare you at all that in the hard Rock bet stats Hub, Kansas City has won fifteen in a row as a home favorite.

Does that worry you at all?

Not?

Really?

All right, again, they can win the game.

I just we need to cover brother.

All right.

The final five once again, we're going with the Colts instead of the Saints.

The Colts plus three and a half.

We got Detroit minus ten and a half in the contest.

There are twelve and a half in a lot of places.

Grab it if you can.

The Bengals plus seven and a half everywhere, plus eight and a half in the contest, Dallas plus three.

We like that number even though it's three and a half in the contest, and we're going with Arizona plus two and a half.

Okay, We will be back later in the day.

This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.

Tonight seven point thirty, after the latest of the afternoon games that should be Bucks Rams, We're going to recap all the misery and glory of the day.

Watch or listen on YouTube a sharper square like the video.

Subscribe to the channel down, let us some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leave uspotstars say whatever you want.

Feedback is a gift.

Until tonight, I love you.

Right now, it's time to take a step forward.

We gotta put something together.

Back to back.

Let's go.