Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by hard Rock bet.

We are part of the Volume podcast network.

This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention all off season long, because we will be dropping a lot of knowledge about futures, including a little bit in today's episode.

I am Chad Melman.

I am joined by my bff, my companion, my co host, my compadre professional letter Simon Hunter Ello.

Simon Chad, how are we doing?

Look, it's the off season for football now, there's still a ton to talk about.

Like I was, I have been on the road, no joke.

It's February twelfth today, since the season began.

I have been since the year began.

I have been in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl, Miami for the National Championship Game.

Then I was in Philly to see my older kid, DC to see my younger kid, uh.

And then this past weekend I was away for the Super Bowl doing reporting on my book.

And I'm going away to LA for NBA All Star this week.

Come back, go back to California for a trip, come back, go to Boston for Sloan.

I don't feel like it's the off season.

Simon, I feel like it's it's busier than ever.

Yeah, for football, I would say as a pro usually I do disappear for two three weeks here because this is our little offseason, and uh then obviously dive right back in the combine and the NFL Draft, and you know, the NFL now really is three sixty five that kind of never ends.

So I'm with you.

It's the type of life now where it's always in the back of your mind, and even when you're doing other stuff, you're always thinking and am I missing something?

Should I be betting some team's futures right now?

And just like everyone else, you know, I'm can't wait for the draft obviously, but my favorite day is when all the books start leaking those week one lines.

So yeah, like we.

Said, people, our diehards obviously will listen to the old offseason.

If you're just a football fan and you're checking it out, definitely check in on our future show we Talk NFL, just because we do give out good info.

I mean, last year we gave out our favorite long shots for each division.

We gave out the Patriots, we gave out our give it, gave out sound reasoning about why we did like the Patriots, and you know, like we said, every division, we're not gonna nail, but we'll go through everyone obviously and just try to give a preview about what we're seeing this upcoming season.

So yeah, it's like we always talk about.

It's we talk other sports obviously.

We have really smart guests on that predictular sport worts and you know, even looking ahead this year off season wise for the NFL, I can't wait.

Right We got the Olympics right now, and then we have the World Cup in the summer, so we have all of our major sports in America, but we have a lot of great other sports going on right now that I want to get action on.

So yeah, it's a fun time right now for a sports fan.

It's fun anytime to be a sports fan.

I mean, our jobs are so silly.

Speaking of silly, it's our traditional NFL offseason mailbag episode.

So we get a lot of questions throughout the year and then especially once the season is over.

So Matt Mitchell's been going through the mail bag and compiling them.

We're going to look at them today.

If you ever have any questions for us, you can always DM me and Simon at the various socials.

You could also just email producer Matt Mitchell anytime or Square at gmail dot com.

We love to hear from you.

We love answering questions, We love interacting with the folks who are listening and watching Obvious One.

Everyone's been talking about it for the past forty eight hours.

I mean, this is this is what's crazy about media.

There is It's like there is no rest, there is no celebration.

I was flying back on Monday from where I was to back to Connecticut, and I had a layover and I'm sitting in one of the lounges and they got first take on and I swear to god, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark and dan Orlowski were doing first take from Disneyland, and they like, they looked like they were gonna throw down about who were the better quarterbacks than Sam Darnold in the NFC.

Ryan Clark looked like he was about to cry about it.

Cam Newton was apoplectic about it.

Dan Orlowsky was literally standing up.

And I'm thinking to myself, you guys just can't care that much about who you're saying are better quarterbacks in the NFC than Sam Donald?

Right, now who, twelve hours earlier had won the freaking Super Bowl, the one of the best postseason performances we've ever seen.

The voice of reason on the show.

The only person who was calm was stephen A.

Smith.

That was it.

Everyone else was losing their shit.

Stephen A.

Smith was like, guys, guys, this is what it is.

This is why Dak Prescott can't be listed as a better quarterback than Sam Donald right now in the NFC.

My point for all this is, I've given it some grace.

We like to celebrate, but now it's Thursday.

It's time to start talking about NFL season futures.

Super Bowl sixty one odds at hard Rock Bet right now, the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buffalo Bills at plus eleven hundred.

The Rams and the Seahawks are both at plus nine hundred.

Those are the shortest odds right now.

The Ravens plus looks like thirteen hundred Packers plus fourteen hundred Eagles.

Simon there at plus fourteen hundred.

Have you looked at any of these yet?

Have you given any serious thought to these?

Yet?

Not?

Really?

Like I did put a single bet on the Chiefs because the book did hang them at fifteen to one, and it's like, all right, can't I can't walk by that number and not bet, even though I really do think the Chiefs feel like they might be in the middle of a little bit of a rebuild here because they haven't drafted too great, but the coaching they have and the quarterback, I just feel like they if any team can find a way, we know it to them.

And at fifteen to one, I know Pat's coming off a serious injury here, but that one fell too egregious.

And yeah, for long shots, I'm already oh for one this year, I said it was kind of a fun bet to throw a flyer on Cleveland at like fifty or one hundred and fifty to one.

They've only gotten worse.

Yeah, Jim Schwartz is out the building.

It's all bad there, so that I'm definitely moving off that position.

Jumped out to me, our guys shuck one hundred and twenty five to one Saints for Super Bowl.

I thought that was a little bit of interesting.

And the Panthers are one hundred and ten to one.

I thought that was a little interesting.

So the NFC South, they're just the two teams that popped out to me right away, And I know some proso bet the Giants at seventy to one.

I don't feel like that's good enough.

I feel like I need eighty or ninety to one if you've betting on Dart to stay healthy for a whole season with a new coaching staff and horrorball.

So if people want to know what pros if take a position on, I know a couple of pros if taken a position on the Giants.

Not so much these little long shots I've talked about.

I'm glad you're bringing that up there.

You just mentioned a couple of things that are in the questions that people have been asking us about, and we're going to get to it in a second.

One is about the Chiefs.

One is about coaches that were on coaches that were off Harbaugh, Mounken, there's other coaches, you know, Michael Floor just signed with Arizona, Clint Kubiak going to the Raiders.

Like, there's a lot of a lot of new names and old names and new places that we're going to get to.

Look, you've got the two AFC South teams, the Texans and the Jags at twenty to one.

The Bears twenty two to one.

I won't get sucked in with the Bengals.

I won't get sucked in with the Colts.

I won't get sucked in with the Chargers.

I'm Lions curious at fifteen to one if their defense ever stays healthy.

They've got a new offensive coordinator.

That's intriguing to me.

I'm looking for second year coaches.

I should reframe that because I probably will get sucked in with the Jaguars.

I like the second year coaches who I think had proven in that first year they understand how to build a system, and they showed improvement over the course of the year.

The Jaguars had that can you get over Trevor Lawrence?

The Texans have shown it.

Can you get over CJ.

Stroud?

The Broncos?

Can you get over Bo Nicks?

I'm curious why you didn't mention any of those three teams all at twenty to one.

I just don't like the value.

They're all so clustered, and I just with those type of teams, I have a feeling if.

One of them start zero and too, I get way better value.

And that's that's what I'll be picking because this year the books have simply said we have no idea, right usually have.

This year, we have a team that's plus five hundred plus four hundred odds on Super Bowl Favorite.

The Silks are double that, they're plus eight hundred.

Like that's really telling, by the books about how wide open everything is.

So you know, I talk all the time.

I'm wide open about what I look for with people and how what's been great and beneficial to me long term, where I find success in winning offensive line defensive line.

If I'm making a Super Bowl.

Future of bed right now, if I only can make one bet, you must pick a team that either has a dominant offensive line or a dominant well known defensive line.

And sounds very lazy and boring, it's held true.

It feels like almost every year.

I mean, you could say that Patriots are a little fluky, they'd have a great offensive line.

I think they had a pretty dominant defensive line in many ways, right.

They had a really good defense.

And by the way, you're let me just reiterate your point.

Last year it was the Eagles dominant offensive line, dominant defensive line.

This year the Seahawks dominant offensive line, dominant defensive line.

When the Chiefs were winning.

They had a really good defensive line, Like that's.

Not you have their Hall of Famer on your offensive now and.

The better offensive lineman of the year.

Yeah, exactly.

So it's like that's it sounds like I'm being a dead horse here, people, But look for that.

That's something that the general population, they still overlook it.

They don't realize how important it is, and they're just all blinded about the big names, right Like I was honestly tempted to take you know, josh Alla eleven to one, twelve to one right now, Like that's very tempting.

This guy is the best.

He played on a broken foot.

If he didn't have a meltdown in that Denver game, they could have easily won the Super Bowl this year.

Like, he would have gave real problems to that Seahawks defense his running style and his deep armaability, Like you saw the Seahawks their real achilles was being beat downfield on certain type of passes.

That's why Stafford could rip them right.

Those two tight end sets they dominate the Seahawks.

Guess who runs a ton of two tight end sets?

The Bills.

So we're looking for an AFC team that could challenge the Seahawks team.

The Bills got er up there.

The only reason I'm not giving them out is just it doesn't feel like it's enough.

Value here for me.

Like if if they had an established number one receiver, that feels like good odds to me.

But without a number one receiver I can truly trust still, which I think is something they will address.

I don't know if I can be putting money on money on the Bills yet.

Well.

That leads directly into the second question from our fans, which is, we've got ten new head coaches in the NFL this upcoming season.

Of those ten situations, and I'll read them, let's pick two we love and two we hate.

Arizona Cardinals Micha Lafloor previously with the Rams.

Falcons, Kevin Stefanski previously with the Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Jesse Minter Buffalo Bills, Joe Brady Cleveland Browns, Todd Munkin, Clint Kubiak coming from the Seahawks to the Raiders, Jeff Haffley going from the Packers to the Dolphins, John Harbaugh from the Ravens to the Giants, Mike McCarthy from the Cowboys to the Steelers and then Robert Salah to the Titans.

I've got over there.

I hate.

I just hold on.

I was gonna say one thing.

Sure, I've got a countertake on the one I hate the most.

That's why you stop me.

Jesus Christ, Chad uh Yeah, for the two I hate.

I mean, I don't know how anyone has confidence in Arizona or Miami.

Those feel like total teardown rebuilds.

How do you have faith into it?

He's just regressed every year, his head injuries, his body's breaking down, and Kyler's got ex teammates telling Jets ownership do not bring this guy in.

This guy does not love football, does not care about football, is a bad teammate.

So nightmared, nightmare, nightmare.

If I was an Arizon or Miami fan, I just I don't see a future, especially in their divisions.

So I feel bad for them.

And you know, I guess Tadd Mulkins a horrible higher too by the Cleveland.

But for just we're going just too.

I would say Arizona Miami that just feels like total lost causes.

You ready for my take?

I'm not a John Harbaugh guy.

That's fair.

I mean, he's someone said he's a better looking Mike McCarthy, which I totally agree with.

It's like we hype them up because they won a Super Bowl years and years and years ago, and that's carried them now for fifteen years.

So I agree with you he's a little overrated.

I think he'll improve the culture.

I think he'll make them better players.

I think he'll keep them in more games.

I clearly we have never been that impressed with his decision making in the game.

More importantly, his offenses are pretty unimaginative, meaning he doesn't go out and hire guys that inspire a ton of confidence, and we saw that with the Ravens.

I mean, he's had the single greatest weapon in the NFL for almost a decade, a guy has won multiple MVPs, and consistently in the playoffs, they will do the exact opposite thing of what they need to do to win those games, and then he'll come out and defend the offensive coordinator in the play calling to the point where it's It's reportedly one of the reasons why he left is they wanted him to fire Todd Monkin and he wouldn't do it.

So I'm just I'm not a hardball guy.

I'm not that much of a believer.

I actually think Mike McCarthy to the Steelers is more interesting.

The one that I love is Clint Kubiak to the Raiders.

I mean, we saw it all season, and we saw a lot of it in the Super Bowl.

The guy was a magnificent play caller and took a very good talent in Sam Donald and put him in positions to succeed.

He's going to have Brock Bauers with the Raiders.

He's going to have Ashton Genty with the Raiders.

He's going to have Colton Miller, who missed most of the year as an offensive lineman for the Raiders, their best offensive lineman.

He's going to have him back.

And then they're going to get Fernando.

Now, I'm not being crazy irrational about what I think a rookie quarterback can do, but I do think if there's going to be any rooky quarterback who can marry with what Kubiak did, we saw a really, really good comp with Sam Donald.

So I like that choice.

It gives it a little bit of shine and momentum in Las Vegas.

Yeah, for me, I'll go with Minter to the Ravens.

I think they're trying to correct the errors of their ways, which is letting Mike McDaniel's walk out that door.

And you know they know they mean Mike McDonald's.

Mike McDonald.

Yes, when they let one of the best defensive minds walk out that door and Minter, you expect he is going to be that type of guy, right, Like he's going to be this great defensive mind that could come in and set up that franchise now defensively, because that's what's been missing with the Ravens, right, They just the last two years, their defense has been subpar since he left, and you know Minter might come in and totally change that, which is what they need.

And you know, if if it is over for Lamar, right, if he does get banged up again next year, and he did, they just can't rely on him once again.

He's he's just inconsistent.

You know, that's the kind of coach you want to be in there evaluating quarterbacks going forward because obviously this guy knows quarterbacks because he's such a great defensive mind.

So I did really like that hied by the Ravens, And again I like the higher becase how much I hate it.

I'm gonna go with Mike McCarthy.

I hate the higher times a thousand.

I can't believe they're going from Tomlin to McCarthy.

So I have a history when I hate hires, usually that's a great hire by that organization.

So I'm gonna go the other way on it.

Where Pittsburgh they've been so great at hiring these coaches, who am I to doubt them and question them.

I did not understand that hiring at all.

And I know he's a local guy and he absolutely loves Pittsburgh and he grew up rooting for them and all that noise.

But this, this to me was bizarre.

I mentor I thought would go to Pittsburgh.

That to me for like a Pittsburgh guy, a young, smart defensive mind, come in and be the coach there for twenty years.

Instead they went with a McCarthy, a journeyman.

Now at this point, yeah.

Bizarre, bizarre, bizarre, bizarre hire.

And especially the fact that after Rogers leaves, now you're having Mike McCarthy.

I value with your quarterback, and he's gonna be the guy that's dictating your next quarterback.

So I don't know where you're at with that one.

But again I like it because how much I hate it.

So my two favorites were Kobiak and Minter full stop super excited about those.

My second tier with Salah to the Titans.

Stefanski intrigues me.

Joe Brady feels uninspired and like the leftovers in Buffalo.

For some reason, they couldn't get anything better.

I don't know what the situation is there.

I agree with you about McCarthy and the Steelers.

They have always been a team that goes out and gets a super young talent Chuckno, Bill Kawer, Mike Tomlin, and then that person is in the job for twenty years.

That's obviously not going to be Mike McCarthy at sixteen years old or whatever it is.

So it was interesting to me that they sort of went away from that.

But the flip side is, I do think he's a really good offensive coach, and we've seen what he can do when he has a semblance of a competent quarterback.

And I think they're playing I think they expect Aaron Rodgers to come back.

I think they want to get as much juice out of the can as the end of that era with that defense, and this is going to give them the best opportunity to do it.

I also think there is that one's ever going to stop going to Steelers games, but there are rumblings on that from that fan base about how unimaginative the offense has been and that it's been super hard to watch these games.

And with McCarthy at least you're getting a little bit more creativity and a little bit more offensive expertise.

So I don't hate it.

It's not in align with what they've done historically.

It's not a forward thinking here's our future for the next twenty years coach.

But I don't hate it.

He's been a good coach and he's wonted a lot of play he's won a lot of games.

It's fair.

I'm again I'm super negaive and down on him where I look at all the stuff he does in the playoffs chat talking about imaginative he is offensively, his offenses have always laid an egg in the playoffs between.

Aaron Rodgers Dak.

John Harbaugh.

Yeah, that's fair, but.

I don't know if Harble is as involved in the offense like McCarthy is.

Like we're talking and you're in Pittsburgh fans.

I get it.

Being five hundred every year and losing the first run of the playoffs probably got old right.

It was a long run.

You guys might have after this McCarthy run, four or five years bottom of the barrels, you might become the Browns.

Now you might be three and fourteen, four and fifteen every year.

Like again, I get what you need to change.

I am worried about the way this Pittsburgh organization is going right now.

So yeah, it's I'm with you.

I feel like the two best hires definitely Raiders in the Ravens.

They knocked at the park, QBIAC excited to see what we can do with Frenanda.

Mendozo Simon, it's like your professional podcaster because you just mentioned Cleveland and one of the questions, what team is currently in the worst overall situation Arizona, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns.

I think it's got to be the Jets.

I think with Lafleur in Arizona, you're getting a guy who's got a really good pedigree, and you've got a fresh start.

And even if you do try to figure out how to get rid of Kyler, you got Jacobe Prissette.

There there's some semblance of something, and you've got optimism.

I think in Cleveland terrible situation.

It's on par with the Jets, but you still got an elite defense and if Todd Munkin can figure something out, you'll be in some games.

I think the New York Jets are poisonous.

I think it's one of the worst organizations in sports.

I think they're desperate.

I think they're grasping.

I think they don't really know what they're doing.

I think players don't want to play there.

I think their ownership is sour, and their quarterback room right now is justin fields and I forgot who else, Tyrod Taylor, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, and no, and and they're not really in a position to get a good quarterback because it's not a front loaded quarterback draft.

No, it's a horrible draft.

Again, no district for name and dooza in a normal draft.

Here it's he's there by no means a slam dunk number one right like he is not that.

But I don't know how you don't pick Arizona.

They're in a division with right now the three best top with top five coaches in the NFL and Shanahan, McVay and McDaniels, McDonald McDonald.

I don't know what they can do.

I just don't know how Arizona can get out of this.

It's so bad.

And you know, they didn't make the right move going from Rosen obviously to Kyler, but that was a bust and it set him back.

It's a waste of six seven years.

Now they have to do that once again.

So yeah, it's it's a nightmare.

Like we just said that that.

I just can't get over how good their division is and the coaches where the Jets.

I don't know if as bad as it is for them, there is an avenue where they can get They have all this draft capital now, they can get the coach, they can get the quarterback the next three four years and change this thing.

I don't see how Arizona does that next three four years.

I don't know if a quarterback or the right coach can fix that team because that division is just so brutal, fluky things happen.

Can they steal division?

Sure, but them being consistent, Like we've talked about the Seattle Seahawks.

And you know them in the Eagles.

Right now in the NFC, there are the two teams that have now won multiple Super Bowls in the last ten years.

Like they're the cream of the crop the NFC, where the AFC has just been so dominated by the Chiefs and the Patriots.

It's just hard for me to see, Like, I don't know the Jets, that's the Jets thing.

I'm with you on.

But Arizona, I have all the teams I feel the most hope is just lost on that right now, which I just I don't want to beat them while they're down.

I know they're the biggest losing organization in the history of the NFL, but my god, their ownership is just so bad.

Their ownership is terrible.

By the way, the Bidwells, you know how they made other money, m I do.

I forget gambling, right, I would racetracks in Chicago.

They worked closely with al Capone, very closely with al Capone, and then ended up buying the Cardinals for like five hundred bucks on some deal on a yacht that the Bidwell patriarch owned, and he bought the Chicago Cardinals.

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A couple of personal questions.

One more football question, you know.

Ben Solak put out an article this morning on ESPN dot com about free agent QBS.

We were just talking about the Cardinals.

Daniel Jones, Malik Willis, Gardner, Minshew Kirk Cousins may be released.

Kyler Murray is potentially available to is potentially available.

Nothing here feels exciting to me.

The only one that feels remotely exciting that I'd be interested if my team got him and didn't have a quarterback.

I guess is Malik Willis.

But you just said it about Kyler.

Two was pretty ineffective unless it was Mike McDaniel's coaching him.

So it feels like a desperation moment if you don't have a quarterback.

Yeah, like the Sam Donald's experiment obviously worked, but if said he.

Had won fourteen games the year before, like he had shown some potential.

Sure, But honestly, though, if you put Sam Donald on the Arizona Cardinals this year, they win five games.

He was not great this year and like that played out right.

He had the most turnovers in the league, so they went to a super conservative offense.

That's what the big change was for them.

And you know the playoffs, he really didn't need to do much to the fort Niners game.

He was all world in the Rams game, that's why we give him so much credit.

And then he wasn't so great in the Super Bowl.

And that to me, that isn't a line with a guy from you can rank him from number twelve to number twenty, like he is in that range of quarterback where on the right day, Sam Donald can be a top five guy.

On the wrong day, he can be a bottom twenty five guy.

And you're gonna get a mixed back with Sam Donald.

What's been consistent for him is he said two years now where the Vikings had a top three defense and then Seattle had a top three defense.

And if you're a team you know we've talked about it in Minnesota that has a good defense with a great defensive mine of Flores, go out there, get him Mac Jones, go out there and get him a leak, like give go, go get someone the challenge JJ, because you got your number one receiver coming out there and just shitting on the kid.

And now they've un followed each other on social media and it's like that's a whole can of worms.

Right, you do need to if you're the Vikings, go out there the new GM they bring in, and go get a guy that we've just talked about.

Go trade for Mac because Mack has one year left on his deal in the forty nine ers, go make a deal fourth round or whatever you need to do, go get him.

Same for him my leak.

Like I just we both saw like he changed going from Tennessee to Green Bay.

Like you designed an offense around him, were using his legs, rolling him outside the pocket.

He is a weapon.

Now can he hold up?

I would say it's not looking great where he basically had limited snaps, and you take him had multiple little injuries and those little limited snaps.

So I'm with you, Chad.

There's not much out there like there's that's and that's normal, right, There's it's rarely anything out there.

That's why Pittsburgh they were fighting over Aaron Rodgers.

That's how dark it was last year.

So yeah, it's sam Don a very unique situation and that was, you know, something that I wish I'd taken advantage.

I know we had fans reach out.

They bet I believe sixty to one of the Seahawks when Gina Smith was still their quarterbacks.

Yeah, you just never know.

You just never know.

Still Murray seven stripes, you just never know.

Simon, we talked about this on Tuesday.

You happily trolled all the Patriots fans with all their takes and all their chirping for the Super Bowl.

Next season, they have a first place schedule.

You assume Drake Mayo be healthy, well, Camp will be healthy, They'll still have the same coaching staff.

What is your prediction for next year when they have their first play schedule.

I would obviously expect the major aggression.

We've also seen the Super Bowl hangover is very.

Real's a losing team, especially.

Moving team especially.

Yeah, like the teams that can get away with it, they usually had Tom Braid or Patrick Mahomes and that was it.

Any other team that didn't have those two guys usually have total meltdowns in season.

And last year you saw the Chiefs had their meltdown of season the first time ever.

And what is it those the year after they lost the Super Bowl.

So you know, I was being gracious saying they could maybe get the five hundred, maybe become the seventh seed next year, just because the schedule is so brutal going through it.

I mean, they play your division, chat like your division is not easy.

By any metrics.

So yeah, if you're the Patriots and I'm a fan of their team, I'd be over the moon.

You have a twenty free year old quarterback, almost one MVP.

You have two really good coaches McDaniel's and obviously we know Varyebel as a genius.

And you know, when I look at their team and I say, well, they have sixty million dollars in cap to spend.

If craft's not cheap and spends that money, spend some on the offensive line, spend some more, either on the D line or a linebacker, they could easily win their division again.

But we just I think we're both in the same page.

We expect major regression.

So I'm excited to whe the books Hangler were total at I feel like a nine and a half would be right.

But if it opens anything above that, if it opens a ten, hammer hammer, hammer that under.

I wouldn't be surprised if they opened a ten and a half given the hype, you know, just wouldn't It wouldn't surprise me.

All Right, those are our questions today.

We're gonna have more.

As a reminder, we'll have new episodes as of Sharper Square Tuesday Thursday during the NFL season.

Accept accept the last week of February.

We're all taking one week off.

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