Welcome to Sharpers Square, presented by hard Rock Bat.

We are part of the Volume podcast network.

This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Milman, I am joined as always buy my co host, my companion, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter HEADO Solomon, Chad.

Are we doing?

We got a glorious morning in which we get to watch football all freaking day.

This is the strip down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper's Square.

We're gonna make some picks.

We're gonna nail down the final five that we love based on the latest news and information and how lines have been moving.

Some quirkiness happen on out there.

Are you ready, brother?

I am ready, all right.

First game up Cincinnati at Pittsburgh five at hard Rock Bat five and a half.

Everywhere else.

I bet into it at five and a half.

I'm a little surprised it hasn't moved to five everywhere else because it looks like the money is coming in on Cincinnati.

I still really like it at five and a half.

Are you with me?

I'm with you.

I'm a little weary of it, but I'm going to join you.

I just I never understood this number all week.

Like I always said, the books aren't giving us extra free points, but feels like in this game they are.

So yeah, it's really a bet on Joe Flacco on this offense and just how they match up and.

We're both the same boat.

We just we do not trust this defense where where they're going to burn us here, but the hope is Flacco will always have us an opportunity to get this back door.

So once again this number.

I don't know what the books you're doing.

Here, but they really believe in this Pittsburgh side.

I just can't get to the fact they'll overrated this Pittsburgh defenses.

Yeah, I mean, we just have not seen any evidence from either defense this year that they can stop anybody.

And this isn't even about Aaron Rodgers against the Chargers last week, because those are always going to happen and then there will be bounced back games and if you're ever going to get healthy and look right again, it's against the Cincinnati Bengals defense.

To me, I am one hundred percent betting against the Steelers defense and betting on T Higgins.

Jamaar Chase being able to find ways to get downfield against a really, really really bad Steelers defensive backfield.

Right now, Cincinnati Bengals plus five and a half if you can find it, which you should be able to.

We're on the Bengals.

Houston at Tennessee.

We had said earlier in the week, get Houston.

Right now the line is five and a half.

We had said, get Houston once it gets under seven.

I got a bad number.

I bet Houston minus six and a half, even though I knew Davis Mills was going to be playing.

I'm a little surprised that went further, from six and a half to five and a half.

Does this give you pause with the Texans.

I mean, the biggest part gives you pause.

I'm sure it gives you pause as well.

It's been never ending amount of money right now coming in on this Houston side, and the number has dropped, like Chad just said, from seven and a half it's open to now five and a half, which we always say is such a key number.

So the books are kind of telling us they think Tennessee has a way bigger chance to win this game than I gave them any type.

Of credit for.

I just I still don't get how they're gonna.

Move and score against this defense, and how they're going to stop what he marks and their run game of Houston.

So I always say there's certain games I'm just missing and I'm overreading, and there's things I'm not looking at right and this must be one of those games.

But I'm with you, like.

I'm betting Houston taking a position on Houston.

Just a little nervous that there's something here I'm missing because clearly the books and professionals have taken a stand on this Tennessee team here.

Yeah, I don't get it either.

What about this offense all of a sudden it makes them think they're going to be able to move the ball down I just keep thinking about that Chargers game two weeks ago when they covered the game.

But that's because they got a pick six in the first quarter and then a punt return in the first quarter, and the Chargers had every chance to still cover that minus nine and a half and they gave up the back door field goal at the end.

This is a bad offense.

It cannot move the ball, and it's going against probably the most elite defense right now, the most complete defense in the NFL with pascertain out for the Broncos.

So it's really really hard.

I know it's Davis Mills, but even Davis Mills against this defense has a better chance to me than cam Ward against the Texans defense.

So yeah, we're still on the Houston Texans, and I guess we like it even more now at five and a half, tricky Simon Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who we have been trying to figure out all week.

Why aren't we going all in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

And then in the past twenty four hours, this line has moved from five and a half to six And that makes me glad that, like I haven't bet the Buccaneers.

You noted on the show on Thursday, Baker Mayfield not really running the ball as much the past few weeks, and that is to the detriment of that offense and his playmaking ability.

I noted that without Bucket Irving, they have just been a different team and it impacts Baker's ability to use play action.

Why do we think this line is moving from five and a half to six in the past twenty four hours?

Is this public?

Is this the wise guys?

What's your take?

I think the public and the wise guys have been betting Buffalo for the most part, and you know this is really about the number.

Right at five and a half, that's definitely a Bill's number.

And you've seen the resistance of the six.

We did our show, I believe it was Thursday's show where the number had hit six at the rand of our showed a couple of books and then literally by the time we posted all them, we're back to five and a half.

So there has been resistance all week to the six.

But like you said, he woke up today and a ton of books are showing six something even six and a half, So.

I don't know.

I guess the proser it's finally coming on the bills, And like I told you, there's I feel like we have a lot of missing information right now in Baker and the Bucks and what kind of.

Injury he abstained, and I don't know what to do with this one.

Chad.

It's another game where I was, like you, very confident Sunday on the Bucks, and every show we've done it's gotten less.

I ended up not taking a position.

I did take a position all on them, but nin as big as I thought when I really started diving to the Baker stuff, and I haven't bet a dollar more in this game.

I honestly thought today i'd flipped and maybe get to the bills, and I'm still not there.

I still just want to bet on Baker, especially now that's at six.

So maybe not a game we'll play in the contest where personally I will be on the bucks.

I have not been a dollar on this game, like I want to be on the box.

Maybe I'll just wait, you know, I'll wait and see if it gets to six and a half.

But like with the way the money is moving, it may get there.

But I've been I've been hesitating all week and I feel like if there's something holding me back, there's no reason for me to pull the trigger because I get antsy.

On Sunday Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams.

The Los Angeles Rams are three point favorites.

This was our Brass Balls Better the Week presented by Hard Reck Bet.

We're both on the Rams here.

Here's what's making me nervous, and it's got nothing to do with anything we talked about on the field.

It's only because Matthew Stafford is just getting glaized this week, like.

Every single day.

There's something new about how Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, how he's getting all the accolades and attention that he should have been getting for years.

So much media love.

I feel like we've been chased.

It could be it's our biggest public player of the week, but I think you stick to what we love.

We love this matchup for them.

This is a great matchup with US offense.

Defensively, It's interesting how Sam Darnall reacts to a really tough defensive front, and you know, a defense that can be passed on if San Darnold has the games he's been having.

Yeah, chat, we might get burned here, but one we're getting a great number, still getting the three at hard Rock, and a lot of books have moved to three and a half, and us personally for our contest it's two and a half.

So I don't know how we can avoid it.

It's great numbers.

We love the matchup, and the only neg thing I can think of is just feels like it's very public, Like the public is all over the rams but sort of the pros.

But I really thought the Seattle Seahawks would be the public darling of the week, but it looks like it's gonna be Detroit taking that dog that the public really loves.

So it's it's.

Interesting watching the line movement.

Like we talked, there's a show.

It was three at hard Rock.

Three and a half, got touched up a bunch of books, including hard Rock, and they immediately got bet down.

So we talk all the time.

There's some really sharp groups that use hard rock.

They clearly are taking a stand at Seahawks at three and a half.

They feel like that's too much.

We love them at three even better.

We get a two and a half in our contest, So I just I don't know how we avoid this one.

I really love this number.

All right, Los Angeles Rams, we're on them at three, Baltimore at Cleveland, this was Chat's choice.

At eight and a half, it's at eight at hard Rock.

Still a lot of seven and a half's out there, which is surprising to me.

I thought by now we'd start seeing a lot more money coming in on the Ravens and pushing this number back up to eight and a half.

I've loved it all week, haven't found a reason not to love it.

It's the right spot.

We've talked about the Browns at home.

Just a reminder since the beginning of last season, where there's been a tremendous split for the Browns at home and the Browns away twenty points at home, twenty points per game at home, thirty points per game on the road.

They give up about thirty percent fewer rushing yards at home than they do on the road, about ten percent fewer passing yards at home than they do on the road.

It's just a different defense at home.

And this is a big number.

So you know, I'm still for better for worse.

I'm still all in on the Cleveland Browns.

Yeah, and Cleveland, though there's a lot of dogs this week that Cleveland feels like it's the same one where we see, just like you people, we see a thousand different ways me and check and easily get burned on this bet.

And of course that's life when you're betting really bad quarterbacks with bad teams.

But like we say at the time, we're just trying to play the number.

Situationally, doesn't feel like it's a great spot for the Ravens.

On the flip side, for the Browns, they've been on an absolute role of being just terrible on the road.

Now they're finally back home in a great match for them.

So it's it's really about the number.

If this was down to six and a half, seven, maybe we could talk ourselves out of this, But like Chad said, it's up to eight and now hard Rock, you know we're suckers for anything over seven and a half, especially with the hook.

I wish I could still use the stat which we had been using all year, which is basically home dogs greater than seven points through the first nine weeks, it's like eighty percent clip they hit at But unfortunately chatted his week eleven, that stat no longer matters, so.

I can't use it.

But the thought process doesn't change here.

Right, It's an undervalued home dog going against an overrated team on the road.

Usually these spots really work out for us.

Right.

The biggest worry here is who is healthy for Cleveland in that running backfield.

Who's gonna be carrying the ball here, because we're not gonna win this on the quarterbacks arm.

We're gonna need a really staunch run game against a Ravens defense as suspect against their run.

So love this match up for them, lamar I said, I was never gonna trust their coach.

I was gonna wait to what the B writers said about him.

Apparently he was fully go in practice, it was just a rest Dagg giving him some days off because he took so many hits I guess in that Vikings game.

So nothing to worry about if you if you are back in the Ravens and worried about the more.

But on the flip side, for us, I still think he's not moving quite like he was before the injury.

Like you didn't going back and watching that Vikings game, you never feel like he fully went full speed because he just does.

Not trust that hamstring.

So in this type of matchup against Miles Garrett and that defensive front, I just I love it for us in so many different ways.

So yeah, it's there's an eight out there, like chets at a hard rock.

I don't won't be scared off if you go get to seven and a half.

I don't see his landen on eight.

I think seven and a half is plenty of points in this matchup.

All right, we're in on the Cleveland Browns.

I love him.

We get funky like that.

Detroit at Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is a two and a half point favorite.

This Simon is our Rock and a hard Place Bet of the Week presented.

By hard Rock Bet Rock.

Look, you just talked Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week.

It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at hard Rock.

It's starting to move to three in some other places.

That tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here.

Lots of reasons to like the Eagles, lots of reasons to like the Lions.

I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week.

I know people are saying there's stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense.

To me, they are different than the problems last year.

The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence.

Jalen Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year.

Jalen Hurts seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win.

That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal.

The flip side, the Lions have.

So many injuries again on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very very good Eagles offense.

So we're on the Eagles.

Yeah, and this should be a gut right spot for this Eagles offense.

I just talked about their whole secondary feels like it's out for Detroit and now you have backups in one on ones against aj Guy iView as a top five receiver and Demonte Smith.

The iView is a top ten, top fifteen receivers.

So if Hurts can't get it right here with the OC, this is this is gonna eventually.

I'm gonna say it's going to start becoming a problem because it's it's November at this point, Like it doesn't matter in September, October.

You're working through stuff.

It's getting a little late here.

And I know I gave him the dry air excuse.

Last week in the cold.

Yeah that was crazy.

It's true though.

Again it's if you played sports, you know it's hard to grip a ball in dry, cold air like that.

And I feel the same here where it's like it's nice weather here in Jersey, it's gonna be football weather.

I don't know if it's not gonna be in the twenties or in the teams like it was in Green Bay.

So I don't know if Hert's going to have that excuse.

And the flip side the lines offensively, I just think that offensive line I still have so many questions about them and the injuries they've had this season.

This is gonna be a real test for them against this Eagles defensive front that was just flying last week?

Is that going to carry throughout the season?

Look we've seen with Fangs defense.

Once they get rolling, once the guys are comfortable in the defense like last year, they become unstoppable.

And that's why he is such an at importan piece that Eagles team, that being a defensive coordinator.

So love this matchup.

Like we talked the pros, the ones that I can talk to there on the Lions, this is to them a Lion spot right.

All the trends, all the numbers point to it.

Eagle is super dysfunctional right now.

While on the flip side, it feels the lines are rolling.

But I still think people are viewing this Lion's team as if it is a Ben Johnson run team.

Offensively, and then their defense does have healthy guys right now.

I just they just don't feel like the same team that people are building up to be right now Detroit.

So again, no destruction with Detroit.

I just don't think they are a top two, top three team the NFC, which this is what people are acting like they are right now, and they can't believe they're a two and a half point dog against this Eagles team.

So it's not shocking to see the public love for them so much.

But like Chad said, I am shocked this number hasn't it three.

Maybe it will by kickoff, but I just think there's so much public love for the lines.

Even when people hear this, I believe you'll still gob to get the two and a half.

By the way, I don't think the Eagles are dysfunctional.

I think this is exactly functional.

For the Eagles.

This is just how they operate.

Dallas at Las Vegas.

This is a Monday night game.

It was three and a half.

This was Simon says, it's moved down to three.

I think you were a little nervous about it on Thursday.

You're probably feeling better about it today.

But the question is when we get to the other side of the break.

Will this be one of our final five?

If you have something you like better, you can throw it in.

I mean, I'm with you.

It's not great having two Mondays in a row in our contest.

It's it's always weird going to sleep and waking up and having another sweat for the show on the Monday.

But just about the number, I love the number here happiest year.

It came down because I couldn't understand, I gain why the public re betting the Cowboys.

I did not know why professionals were acting like two guys coming off injury reserved and joining the Cowboys defense was going to save this team in such.

A big upgrade.

So I was just worried there was something I was missing, And luckily, like Jeed said, the number has come down.

Don't buy here though, if you're buying the Raiders, there are so many three and a halfs.

Don't don't just take the plus three, get the hook.

Get we need the hook.

With Genus Smith, So chop around five to three and a half.

But yeah, there's a couple of games this week that could have gone either way.

Luckily I didn't give out the wrong one right The Broncos.

They're up to four and a half now, like that was a game I was wavering on JK.

Dobbins on IR.

There's some other issues going on there, so it's been moving.

Yeah.

And just again I feel like I dodge a bullet there going the Raiders over that, because it's like, man, if we're sitting here right now in the Raiders for plus four and a half, I would have felt like an idiot given him out on Tuesday.

So luckily we've given out the best of the number.

Hopefully people got it.

And matchup wise, we know Dallas is going to get Theirs.

I just I think Chip Kelly, this Raiders offense, this is the exact spot you bounce back after extended rest of that Denvery team against a future Dallas team that just cannot stop the run, can stay out passes up the seam, and that's.

Literally all the Raiders want to do.

Like, I'm not here to shoot on Chip Kelly, but if you watch his offense, there's not much imagination to it.

He really does what geno strength is, which is just pushing the ball downfield, up the middle of the field.

So I still love the matchup for them.

The biggest issue is I know you just do not like this Raiders team.

You have not been betting this Raiders team.

So I'll try to convince on the other side, but I get while you're hesitant about betting it.

All right, let's do a quick message from hard Rock Bet and we'll come down to our final five.

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All right, berdy, let's talk about what we do like and what we agree on.

We do like the Rams.

We're going to play them.

I think in the contest is two and a half.

We've both been betting them at two and a half and three.

We clearly like Cleveland as an underdog seven and a half eight eight and a half.

That is in.

We like the Eagles minus two and a half.

We're going to play that one.

So we got three games that we know we like.

We got one dog, two short favorites at home, Cincinnati plus five and a half, and just.

So people don't freak out, Eagles are minus one and a half in our contest.

Oh got it even better.

If it lands on two, we're gonna worry.

I'm I'm not winning the lot of rough.

I'm losing a ton of money if it lands on two.

So I just want to make sure people know it's one and a half.

Good to know, Good to know, Cincinnati plus five and a half, and it is five and a half in the contest, So yeah, if you want.

To be your baby Chad, you want to get it in there.

I got no issue with it.

Just checking the weather report Cincy Pittsburgh.

Well, I mean, we can talk of all the games affected by the Lake effect win, but it's basically just what we saw with that Green Bay game against the Eagles, right, it's fifteen to twenty Promorro stayed wins thirty to thirty part our gusts.

So you know, this is the type of game where it might not be a lot of kicking field goals, we don't really care.

We're expecting a lot of touchdowns.

So pretty interesting.

The win is going to be like that where I honestly think that benefits Cincy, Like that makes more randomness that I think will help since the's defense hopefully in some ways.

So I don't hate it.

I just well, look, I think it's it's we got we got three to choose two since he plus five and a half, Houston minus six and a half, the Raiders plus three and a half.

If you feel that strongly about the Raiders.

We can go with it.

I have no opinion on it, and I'm I have more of an opinion on the other two games, But you don't seem to have an opinion on Cincinnati, Whereas I think we both feel like the Texans are the right side.

They are.

I think it's just it's about the line movement and our contest is seven and a half.

Forget it.

I didn't know that.

I thought it was six and a half, Like that's a that's a Tennessee line.

No, I'm I'm having a tough, tough, tough code this week because I do love the dogs and we're both kind of grossed out by those dogs.

Like again, I'm I'm not here to force in Denver because Denver is three and a half in our contest, it's now four and a half.

I'm not going to force that one.

In Cardinals is an interesting game.

It's up to three and a half now, pretty first start Jacksonville.

I have to look see what that number is.

That number has them budget all a week.

Like there's a couple of numbers like that that are just like man as like as a professional, it's like, I think I have to take these numbers like you said, we're just we don't love them.

That's the hardest part about trying to get them as our five.

It's like I haven't bet into them like that to make them one of my five.

Were the Raiders.

I could take that stand, I guess, even though I hate it, but I'm I bet it's the I bet into it really heavy and it's a good number.

I'm gonna check right now first to make sure it's three and a half in the contest, because at two and a half, like we talked about, it's a it's a not it's not in the contest or a conversation.

Well, I wouldn't imagine that it is, because it's kind of been three and a half from the day we started talking about it.

So yeah, it is all right.

So this is what I put in chat.

I'll just give you what I put in for us after a Thursday show.

I put an Eagles of minus one and a half, Cleveland plus eight and a half, La minus two and a half.

I put your Sincion at plus five and a half, and then I had Carolina and at plus three and a half.

Now, I still like Carolina, but like you can tell, I'm not as confident as I was on Thursday show.

I just I just don't like the stuff I've read and seen from Bryce shawng I out of practice this week, but I still think it's such such a huge number for an Atlanta team.

I just do not believe in to be favored in.

I gotta tell you, I like I like the Panthers more than I like the Raiders.

Okay, so you want to do that, then just keep it as I had it on Thursday.

Yeah, we didn't talk about we didn't talk about Yeah, we didn't talk about the Panthers on the show at all.

Just now, you and I both got a little bit scared off because we did.

See some movement that worried us.

I think in some places this line has moved up to four, right.

Yeah, so we.

Were betting against the number that we talked about on Thursday, and I think you've probably been hearing some stuff and I didn't like what I was seeing in the number.

I don't know.

I mean, I just don't have any faith in the Raiders.

I could see brock Howers.

I know you hate them, but like with the way we're set up right now, if you did, Carolina and we would have two one pm games, both three road dogs, which I love, and like I said, Arizona a team might like it's two and a half, so like, that's not going to force in there.

And obviously Denver plus three and a half, I'm not going to force in.

So yeah, it's I'll put up to you if you want to do.

If you want to do Carolina over the Raiders, let's do Carolina.

I can give you shift and I believe in this Raiders team once again.

I can't wait.

All right, So our final five are going to be since A plus five and a half.

The Rams are two and a half in the contest.

We still like them at three if only people are only able to get three.

We've betted at three.

The Cleveland Browns plus eight and a half in the contest, there's mostly seven and a half's we still like it at seven and a half.

It's Philadelphia minus one and a half in the contest.

We have been betting it at two and a half go ahead.

We are not uncomfortable with that.

And then Carolina plus three and a half, which you've been going back.

And forth on.

But those are our final five.

We're going to be back later on tonight to review everything we've done today.

All the misery, all the angst, all the glory will be on Sharper Square YouTube seven point thirty ish as soon as that last afternoon late afternoon game ends.

Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square all the time.

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