Welcome to Sharper a Square presented by hard Rod Batt.

We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

This is the show to make the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chadman and I enjoined as always by my DFF, my companion Mike Fadre my co Ho Professional Better Signing Hunt.

Hello, So I am in Chad.

What we thought was gonna be a terrible Christmas Day for football actually turned out to be pretty dang good.

So I'll give props the NFL doesn't matter what they put out their their product wise.

They always end up getting good games.

And so Evan Abrams had a crazy tweet Holiday games Thanksgiving dogs three and oh Black Friday.

Obviously the Bears, your Bears dominated the Eagles, covered as a dog, and then we went three and oh again on Christmas.

So underdogs on the Holidays, seven and oh pretty pretty crazy.

And yeah for our show, you know, I pushed on Dallas, but we hit on Minnesota, hit on the Chiefs, lost on the money line parlay obviously, the Lions lost out right.

Yeah.

The Dallas Cowboys, now fifteen to one, set the record most overs ever for a first half in an NFL season.

So thank you Dallas Cowboys.

Once again Dak Prescott in a meaningless game of December.

My god, is he good?

Simon as one of my favorite Englishmen, you are, let me be one of the first to wish you a happy Boxing.

Day, Chad.

I finally got the real info in Boxing Day from my mother.

I asked my mom what Boxing Day was, and it blew my mind.

It's a Victorian era holiday.

It goes back to eighteen thirty three Boxing Day, and apparently she said it was basically the rich people would give their leftover gifts to their servants and they would give them the day off after Christmas because have to work on Christmas.

So it wasn't as happy in jolly as I thought I was going to be.

It's still a cool holiday because it's a tradition of people getting off work and it's a holiday I wish America.

I can't give it today.

I saw people out working today.

It's like, my god, we can't figure out a holiday for Boxing Day, and we can't figure out the holiday after the super Bowl.

I might need to run for president just on those two basis.

Jack, give us the day off of Christmas and the day off after the super Bowl.

Well, look, you and I are working today.

Matt Mitchell was working today.

That's yeah, exactly, we're working.

We're struggling through it.

My Christmas was blown up.

Because I tested positive for COVID.

I know Matt Mitchell's Christmas was a blast, even though he was in the er or his wife was in the er with one of his kids for most of the Christmas Eve night.

But here we are.

We're getting through it.

We are the Kansas City Chiefs of the podcast world.

We're going to get through it.

We're going to play our best.

We're gonna be professionals.

We're gonna cover.

We're going to cover it all.

Oh it even mention the Chiefs.

They covered.

Like Chad just said, now, that's stats since nineteen seventies, the Chiefs is a double digit dog at home fourteen and oh against the spread, crazy.

And beat it, can't beat it.

All right, let's get into this thing because every week we get some feedback from the professional betters who have been listening to the show, and Simon.

They got a lot of feedback for you.

It's time for sharp.

Car half answer this boat.

All right, Rain Range telephone range.

Somebody said it maybe want to do man, Yeah, let's start off with the Saturday games.

They love Chad's bet on the Texans, which I agreed with, right.

I think we were both in the same page as that when we like that matchup a lot, and you know, especially a game we could break down more.

But I feel like every probably talk to you probably had the same and tality we do.

It's just, yes, the.

Chargers have been winning.

This is gonna be the best d line they've they faced since the Eagles.

I remember how much the Eagles were just in their face.

I mean, the Houston's d lin is probably better than the Eagles.

So that was a really fun discussion game.

We've seen that number come down now from peaked at two and a half I think, and most books now down to one one and a half on the Chargers.

So yeah, professionally, he has definitely hit that one.

Now.

I don't know, not much to say about the Green Bay Ravens.

Unfortunately, we were spot on with our early read on that one.

We talked about grabbing the two and a half.

The pros did grab that, but I would say in last twenty four hours, I haven't really talked to many pros backing Green Bay now minus four and a half without the unknown of who the quarterback is going to be.

So we're not even going to talk about this game now.

Well, in our other contest, it's probably gonna be play for US at two and a half, just because that's such a good number now, especially if Ulmar is gonna miss that game for the Ravens.

Let's get to the Sunday games.

Really really interesting splits between the Eagles, which I think the pros absolutely love, and the Joe public and us on that Bill's side might have got a little call out there.

I really didn't think the.

Eagles would be play and starters, but apparently they're all in and maybe we underestimated there might be an injury to Josh Allen.

So that's an interesting game.

We're definitely go to break down some more.

Pros loved the Colts a game I think you were on.

I was definitely on the other side of it.

I'm kind of indifferent about it.

I just I just think the Jacks are just so much a better team.

So that was a really interesting one, Tennessee.

Not that shock and I told you that felt like a really sharp play by you.

Pros love it.

Every pro I've talked to is on that side.

It's gonna be the definition of pros verse jokes.

Pros are lining up on that side, the public is hammering that same side.

Gonna be a really interesting matchup.

Cleveland Browns is actually not as just pro as I thought it was gonna be.

The public is coming on Cleveland as well.

But that was a pro game.

I believe it opened four and a half.

K suspension came out, probably dropped it to four to three and a half, like we did our show, you get out the three and a half.

Now you see the professional money coming in very heavy, bumping this down to three at most books.

Even some two and a half's popped up, saw some buyback from the pros, and this one back to three.

So that's another really interesting game and game I gave out.

I knew the pros to be on it.

I love the Seattle Seahawks.

That's gonna be another draw the line in the sand pros versus shows.

Now, I did talk to some really sharp groups that did take the Panthers seven and a half, but they're indifferent right once it gets to seven.

They really just bought the number on the hook.

Just a really interesting game that went a lot of back and forth.

So yeah, the cap it out.

I'm on the other side of it.

I'm gonna get my professional brothers.

I really like the Rams.

They love the Falcons, they love the number on the Falcons, they love the match of the Falcons.

And I don't know if you have an opinion on that one, but I thought it was richardesting.

I just I'm even more dug in.

I bet even more and one in the Rams, which went to seven seven and a half.

So that's a really fun game to break down.

All right, Well, let's get into it.

I think we have so many.

Differences of opinions, and then we're on the same side of a bunch of things.

The Texans at the Chargers.

I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper Square contest with all of our listeners because we both love the Texan Here, I bet the Texans at two and a half.

I bet him on the money line Demiko Ryan sixteen percent.

ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach.

But look, this is all about betting against the Chargers offensive line.

I just will not be fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys and looking great against a team that did what it did against Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas.

I won't be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and getting that win when they when Jalen Hurtz had so many turnovers in that game.

I'm just not buying it.

I know, justin Herbert is great, that'll buy This offensive line is in trouble, and this offensive line is going against the defense that I think is actually better than the Broncos.

I want to make a point about that when we talk about the Jags.

So yeah, like I'm just going to keep betting the Texans.

Yeah, it's too interesting where this game ends up, because, like you said, it's the as great as the Chargers have been a lot of it has just been kind of you know, that Egos game.

They probably should have lost it, right, things went their way, and we're giving props to Herbert.

He had a horrible game, but he outlasted Hurts in that game where you know Hurts that crucial turners at the very end of the game, driving to win the game, and you know Herbert didn't as bad as he playing that game, he played well enough obviously to win it.

Same with the Chiefs game.

He didn't play amazing, they only scored one touchdown, but they outlast them, right, They won sixteen to three.

That was the exact type of game that Herbert always loses to Mahomes.

So I do want to give Herbert props.

I know people were saying, you know, he should be the MVP discussions, that's too far going the one way, But I do think he deserves get the respect of you know, this is a guy that, like you said, he's lost both his tackles, has a bad hand, still producing week to week.

So I get why the general public is backing them here, right, why they trust him more in the sense that you know, the playoffs that matchup the last time they played.

You do kind of have to burn those tapes of throw it away, right, That was first games Herbert could possibly have.

But the defensive scheme that I think you can give Herbert the same type of problems has not changed.

And it's even more so he doesn't have his you know, starting left tackle and right tackle from that game against one of the best team lines in football.

So I am right there with you, Chad.

It's it's the toughest part about our contest, right.

There are five.

Games this week we cannot play in our contest because there's two on Saturday and the three obviously for Christmas.

That's hard.

That means we have eleven games left to pick from from our contest, three of which I don't want to bet.

So now we have eight games.

Yeah, games out of the eight, so still all the time of our contest.

I love it, but it is really tough, and tons of respect to the people that do play it.

I think we had what was it ten or three different people starting to know to start the year for this contest.

Just really impressive.

Because we say the lines are always moving.

It's a really tough contest.

So I'm like, you wish we could get this one.

I love the Texas here, but maybe it's for the I think it's one.

It would be one and a half in our contest.

That's where most lines are going.

I don't think I care, like I'm betting more on the money line for this game than I am on the.

Side that's fair, you know me.

I'm so into the number two.

How it's such a key number.

I just I feel much safer taking the two.

Two and a half Seattle at Carolina.

Uh, you loved this game.

You have it, As Simon says for Seattle, I was surprised and sharp calls to hear that other professionals were lining up on Seattle because like, the Panthers are our beloved, right.

We have been betting on the Panthers and Bryce Young for two years now.

We just had a huge win with the Panthers against the Buccaneers as home dogs last week.

You make a very good point.

Seattle's been great on the road.

The Panthers have been flip flopping good bad, good bad, good, good, back good bad.

Doesn't matter if they're at home or on the road.

So I need to hear more.

I just need to know more.

About forty eight hours since we discussed it, seventy two hours since we discussed it.

Why is everybody loving the Seattle team?

Well, it's just there's there's different classes.

Like the Panthers as much love and props for given to them, Seattle is in a totally different stratosphere.

When we talk about talent level, and I get it, like can the Panthers keep up offensively?

Right?

We've seen Bryce Shung have these incredible performances where he can keep his team in any game.

Yeah, that can easily happen.

That's why the public is coming in on this team, right, They kind of the same view.

I think that you're kind of can hear a little bit of like, is Seattle really seven and a half points better than Carolina?

Which I guess in a vacuum they're probably not, But I think most people that models if you keep simulating this game, Seattle absolutely dominates this matchup, you know, fifty five fifty seven percent of the time, which again, that's an edge to me.

That's something I'm looking for.

And you know, just looking at this game.

At Carolina game, we talked about the Bucks.

They were in total control of that game and Baker just had a total meltdown that second half for Bryce Young stepped up, had big time throws heading into that.

If the Panthers had lost, I honestly would have this game at ten.

So I moved it, you know, a point and a half because they did win that game.

It feels like the books in the public have moved at three, three and a half points because of that, and it just feels like a total reaction where we've seen this Panthers team right when there's you know, at home against the Rams.

That game they won that game.

If you go back and watch it, that was probably one of Stafford's worst games, and he still put up twenty eight points.

So we've seen the teams can move the ball against his Panthers team, it's all about Bryce Young keeping up with him.

This is different.

This Seatles defense is just so legit and defensively, their defense are front I think you could argue they have two of the best five d tackles in all football this season, especially against the run.

So it's gonna be a one dimensional game.

It's all getting our Bryce.

Youong to beat them pass in and I already gave you all those stats about know Sam Donald, when he's a big favorite, the books are telling you something, right.

It's a unique thing for him.

He's been a favorite of seven points or more twelve times in his career.

He's nine to three against the spread, twelve and zero straight up in those games.

So Sam Donald, we've seen these last two years.

This is the only time he's been these bigger favorites these last two years.

He's lived up to those numbers.

He tends to perform very well against bad defenses.

So this we saw yesterday with the Lions team.

When teams are playing for an automatic bid or just to keep their playoff lives alive, sometimes they collapseneath the press the lines.

This is the exact same thing for the Panthers.

The Panthers need to win this game and they don't need to care about the Bucks next week.

How many times we've seen these teams look ahead and have a total letdown this spot, So it's it is painful.

I don't want to do this to the Panthers, but it makes me happy knowing no matter what, if it's three, if it's two, we'll be on the Panthers next week anyway.

So I'm getting off on this week.

Chen I love Seattle in this spot, but it's it's it's something I've done with Panthers this seed.

They've just been up and down week to week, and it just feels like a really bad spot for them with the lookhead for the books next week.

Jacksonville at Indy, that's the game that I want to talk about.

You and I are against each other on this game.

Jacksonville's a six and a half point favorite.

Number one.

I just feel like this is the ultimate by low Sell high right.

We saw what the Patriot, We saw what the Colts did on Monday Night football against the Niners.

Couldn't cover anyone, lost by three touchdowns.

We saw what the Jags did against the Broncos, winning going away on the road against a team that very likely is competing.

For the number one seed.

Here, I have a theory.

I don't think the Broncos defense is actually or the Broncos offense is actually as good as they're being given credit for.

And I think the bo Nick's miracle comebacks have sort of elevated them because look, they didn't do that great against Jacksonville.

Then they turned around and didn't do that great against the Chiefs that had a crapload of backups playing in the game.

So I think by that transitive property, the Jacksonville Jaguars are being a little bit overrated here.

And I will say that home dogs have more than a field goal off a blowout sixty one percent against the spread.

That one no fog, my friend, that is clear as day.

Indianapolis Colts plus six and a half.

Yeah, And that's that's why I like the the Denver part.

I get why people have hated, right, their defense probably isn't as good as we give them credit for it either.

They've had a pre self schedule.

But the problems I did give the Boe Nicks is same thing with Caleb Williams, Like these comeback wins.

What more are you looking for in your second year quarterback?

Like these?

They keep winning these one score games Denver, which is really impressive to me.

And I'm with you.

Am I going to be hammering them for Super Bowl odds?

No?

They have to get caught eventually Denver.

And this jag where I seem a little bit what you're talking about here that's very true, is that this is peak right.

This is probably them being super valued by the general public.

I don't know if it's so much by the models.

And that's that's what I'm having a hard time with here.

So Chad's on the sharp side.

This number to me, just like last week the Colts, I believe they opened six or six and a half against the forty nine ers.

It closed four and a half by kickoff.

So this number here, like Chad's saying, there's just six and a half a hard rock here in Jersey.

It's it literally just went to six.

I've seen a couple of books already moved to five and a half as we speak right now.

So the Pros, they're with Chad, They're coming in heavy on this cold side.

I just I gave you guys historical numbers.

I can't go against it.

It's just every time I think the Jags will eventually slip up here.

It doesn't matter if it was Minshew, doesn't matter if it was Blake Bortles.

It's just they've had tons of trash or the quarterback position, and the Jags always, for some reason find a way to cover and beat this Colts team.

Now when they have a well machine on offense, the Jaguars, the Trevor Lawrence playing at the highest lebe I've ever seen.

I'm not gonna lie to each other.

I'm just I can't do it.

I can't go against them.

So people betting this one, if you are with Chad and you're taking Indianapolis, like I said, it is the sharp side, you gotta grab the number now, because I do think the Pros are gonna bet this down For me that I like the Jags now that I'm seeing thelignement, I'll just be patient.

I'll take the five and a half.

If anything, I'll just throw them in a teaser and just take the money line this Jaguars team.

But like I said, if we come Sunday morning, CHaGS really like Chad saying I need this golts one in the contest, I'm not gonna fight you on it because I do believe you're right that is the sharp side and the Jagger due for a letdown.

It's just I can't get over how good this Jags offense is.

Even I went back and watched that Denver that Denver game, Liams in his bag man like him skimming up to open these guys where rub routes using that tight end to come out in the flat route to bring the cornerback down so there'll be a higher route, you know, in the middle of the field.

And just there's multiple times watching there's just guys open against them in the middlefield.

So I think, I said, I just I'm seck the Rams with me and the Rams now I think Jackson have won me so much money or these last couple of weeks.

I just think they're just so undervalued by the general public.

Soul could be a week that Chad's much sharper than me with this COVID cold because he's not in only this game, the Tennessee game.

You were.

You were ahead of it on both of these games, being the sharp side.

Well, let's talk about Tennessee.

Maybe I should just have COVID every week and then I'll just have clarity, fog for fog for everything else, but clarity when it comes to the lines.

So that's the best way to live.

Yeah, No, orally, Well, part of it is like, uh, for the past thirty six hours, I've been quarantining from my family, and which is actually annoying because you know, my kids are home for a limited time and they're old enough now that it's actually just really fun to go out with them, Like they have real things to say and real conversations and it's just blast to be hanging with them.

And now I'm just sitting here in my freaking office because I can't do anything.

Christmas miracle, people, a man in his fifties realize his kids have personalities incredible.

Don't make me weeze New Orleans and Tennessee.

This line is now down to two.

And a half at hard Rocket, opened at three and a half we've been betting it, or at least I have.

I also bet Tennessee on the money line.

So look, you've said it, the wise guys are on it.

I don't love that there is a majority of the tickets coming in on the Titans.

It makes me feel like we might be backing a little bit of a public dog.

But I just want to feel better after you said the wise guys have been pounding this as well.

Yeah, and that's fair.

It could it could be a little bit of a public dogs what we talked about, right, this is a Tennessee team that we've all left for dead, and I think I gave it up.

They won like three o their last five, like they had been winning games.

It's been pretty impress so not that shocking.

I didn't I have not seen the ticket stuff, but you're right, like, I'll probably get more infu on that as the week goes along here.

But yeah, I, like I said, you were spot on it when it was three.

The two and a half is still a great number as well.

I'm I'm like I said, I'm banned from betting it, but if I was going to bet it, I would be joining chatter.

I think the early read on Tennessee is right, and it's another game.

I wouldn't be shocked if he did put in the contest because it's probably a game that should be a pick.

But like me, I'm with the public.

I still think the books are underrating Shuck and how great he's been for this Saints' offense.

So I really can't wait to see how this game ends up because either my model is way off and I'm overrating Shuck and I'm so in love with this guy because I have all this money on him to be Rookie of the Year, or I'm spot on that he is legit, which I cannot believe because going back watching his college tape, I just can't believe that he actually is a good quarterback.

So yeah, this Saints game is really fun because it's not that it dictates the future, but I feel like it's it's another game that decides, you know, is Chuck the best rookie this year?

He's gonna win Rookie of the Year because this is a true test.

Right, He's had a great test with the Panthers the Bucks, those were great, great wins, but this one is really interesting because they just had a blow went at home now they're going on the road.

We'll see how this young rookie deals with success.

That way.

I'm this is this is not going to be a corner TV game.

This is going to be in the four box.

I will so be watching this game for so many reasons.

There's actually going to be a blast.

And by the way, kudos to Mike McCoy.

Mike McCoy, who was kind of a nondescript, forgettable coach with the Chargers, has come in whatever he did, has highlighted how bad Brian Callahan was right because with with whether it was culture, whether it was discipline, whether it was play calling, running the ball, running the ball, how he's managing this team generally has just changed it dramatically and turn them into much more of Ay safer Bet, I think you can lift yourself imposed ban.

I don't want that.

I respect to the fans.

I just I cost them in myself way too much of money with my stupid opinions on Tennessee.

Yeah, but the flip side is you could be costing them money now by banning it like I'm on it, I'm making I am now making money on the Titans.

It's crazy what a world are you live.

In the COVID Man.

The COVID brings clarity Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Simon, Cleveland Browns are a three point underdog at home.

Like we said, the land has moved from four and a half to four to three and a half to three.

Cleveland Browns are.

Going to be our brass balls Better the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet.

You know what it takes.

It takes brass balls.

Who knows what's going to happen in this game.

If the if the Ravens lose on Saturday Night, well, Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters.

We know Dk metcalf is not going to be playing.

I think we're we're leaning into the division rivalry.

We're leaning into Miles Garrett going for the sack record.

We're leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road.

It's an anti raw ras spot all of those things.

As you pointed out, this is where I want to say a bet on a team with nothing to play for versus a bet on a team with something to play for.

In the last two weeks of the season, sixty against the spread you said it more eloquently, but now that I remember it and it's in my notes.

I wanted to share it.

Yeah, and like Chad just said, it's a very unique spot here where we could be getting a great number because Pittsburgh could simply be sitting.

All their guys, right.

This is a really fun game that you know, the Ravens, I think they're up to minus or plus four and a half now.

Yeah, the books are kind of telling you they don't think they're going to win there.

So the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons of public money coming in on the Steelers team because they're just seeing the minus three, right with a Pittsburgh team that's been beating pretty good competition these lest weeks, playing a Browns team that y'all know, they're just not very good, especially offensively, and they've had now they lost Junkins to an injury, the running back.

Like it's just it's a nightmare for the Browns.

But we've been talking all season this Browns team.

You know, they we were a little disappointed them because their defense, like it wasn't shown up the last couple of weeks.

Yeah, you know, even that Bills game, you can't really say they dominate or showed up in that game totally.

It was just Buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half.

But you know it was another game was close, right, And you just go through other games.

You know, the Tennessee game they lost at home, I think they lost by two, and that Bills game, even though they should have probably lost by ten or eleven, they only lost by three.

So we've just seen this Browns team, even as bad as they've been down the stretcher, they still have been playing really tough in close games at home.

And Chad just nailed it.

It's like, it's this is gonna be the Miles Garrett party, and I love the irony of it if it is gonna be Mason Rudolph being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against all that just coming together, and yeah, it's it's really interesting.

We talk all the time about how I gave out that stat five the last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh outright at home, and you know that's with you know, Deshaun Watson's backups and just disaster of the season these Browns have had these last couple years.

They've just continually beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home, so never.

Was gonna avoid it.

We talked about it in the contest.

If you've got to get the three and a half is a great number to lock in, because that number just felt like it was gonna keep falling.

And now that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens, that f the Ravens lose Pittsburgh, they've locked up the title of the North.

They don't need to play anybody.

I just don't see Tom and riskin all these veteran guys they have playing this game.

So this was a game you don't see Rogers.

And you know, as much as we like to hate on Rodgers, he's been really impressed in Yeah, so it's it's it's gonna be pretty interesting how different this team is in a game that just means nothing them against a Browns team that I think this is going to mean something to them.

I think they're gonna be.

Playing hard, especially since your Sanders, who ye still playing for a job here, So think me and you were in sync.

Youre chatty, And if this is two and a half in our contest, I'd still take it as long as you're getting a good plus number on.

The Browns agree, Simon, you and I mind meld.

I hope I don't give you COVID.

It's pretty one of my bigger bets this week.

It's like I might really load up a bunch of door in the Browns.

But it's a great holb We totally are Matt Mitchell.

I'm throwing you a curveball here because I want to add in Tampa.

Bay at Miami.

The number is five and a half six.

Simon, you didn't mention.

It in sharp calls at all, But this just is continuing to feel like a big number for me for the Bucks because they have not been able to execute effectively at any point or cover a big number like this.

And Devon Achan could run all over this team.

As we've see, they have not been great at stopping run.

So why aren't we having a bigger conversation about Miami.

I just I'm with you.

You're spot on.

Miami is definitely the side on the spot here.

But like I've been talking about this Bucks team, this isn't going to continue.

They're gonna have a game where they do get right.

This offense, the weapons that have age is too good.

Like what you're saying is true to me for them.

Defensively, right, Miami should be able to run the ball, but you saw that last week Quin yours, you can't complete the ball ten yards now field chet like he was throwing in the double triple team.

So I think your idea is sound and right.

Like.

If this is too a this would be one of my bigger bets of the week.

I just I can't be bet in this quarterback that can make completions against a team that is insanely desperate at this point.

I mean, talk about a dream scenario to get right.

If you were the Bucks, you were now facing one of the worst secondaries in all of football, like Mike Evans.

Guy when a Mecca Buca Baker, No, we've talked, Baker's.

Had an injury.

This is a no excuse type of game.

He should be able to move the ball and pass it all over the field against them Carolina.

We saw in the first half he wasn't rhythm.

The second half we've reverted back to that.

We we keep talking with this Baker.

That's just the thirty ninth out of thirty nine quarterbacks in the league in EPA per play.

He's just he was horrible.

So I think you're read is sound.

I'm just I'm with the public here.

I'm back in Tampa and I'm taking the five and a half and I've seen actually some pro Moneyeah, that's not even gonna talk much about it coming on the Bucks.

This did go from five to five and a half, and now I'm seeing a couple of books move to six.

So yeah, it's it's an interesting game where I think your read is right in the sense that if you want to play that playoff stat we gave out, the Dolphins are technically a sixty percent play right here, right there, this is the spot you're supposed to take them.

But I am totally totally worried about them, just offensively with Queen Yours.

It feels like they got the call right.

Don't put in Zach Wilson, put it in the other kid.

Let's let's start losing some games here.

There's no point of us being eight and nine.

Let's go and nine wherever they're trying to get to now.

So it's it just feels like Miami's totally giving up on the season.

I was going to talk about the Giants and the Raiders, the battle for the number one overall pick, because the Raiders have now become one point underdogs.

They were one and a half point favorites when we spoke on Tuesday.

But the news is that brock Bauers is on IRS.

He's not going to be playing.

That's why I moved.

I think that's why it moved.

But also, the Giants aren't going to have Andrew Thomas, and they've got other O line injuries, and the Giants, as we've seen the past couple of years, are just a much different team when Andrew Thomas isn't playing.

And so are we balancing out sort of the disadvantages when Andrew Thomas isn't playing and Brock Bauers isn't playing, And then do we just go with the team we know is going to have the psycho coach who could give a shit about draft position.

Yeah, Like, to me, this is number five or number six for our contest comes Sunday.

Like, I love this game, even though I know I shouldn't because there are I just said, there's so many unknowns here.

And you did see the line flip when the brock Bowers news got, you know, came out just because he is so important, I mean, he is he coming to the season, he was my number one great tight end.

I think I have him at number two now, behind Trey McBride.

But still for their value to the spread, they're probably only a handful of tight ends even command half a point, let alone a point.

And yeah, seeing this flip three points, it feels like a bit extreme for the brock Bowers news.

So I know Raiders are super public side.

I've talked to most bookmakers.

They they're basically taking a ton of Raiders' money.

I still think it's the right side.

And then that stat I gave out on Tuesday just keeps ringing in my head.

Right, you have two teams, you know, below three percent one percentage playing this late in the year.

It's only happened four times in NFL history, I think since nineteen ninety the home team four and oh straight up in that exact spot.

So you know, the numbers bear it out.

I know it's a small sample, but it kind of shows that when there's two bad teams there is a slight home advantage to it.

And you know, Chad just gave it out there.

Now the Giants, who already have a bad offens line, now they're down again.

Their best offensive tackle playing against a D line as much crap we want to give to the to the Raiders, that's probably their only strong thing we have defensively, and that's what we talk about.

Max Crosby gets to pick left or right, He picks whatever side he wants to.

So really unique spot here for this Vegas team that I think offensively, not that they've found something against Houston, but I feel like they did right they kind of figure it out.

It's just a type of team that you know, we know they have the weapons, they just never could put it together consistently because their offensive line is so bad.

And I know a couple of people ask me about that.

Do you expect the Giants bill to take advantage of that?

You've seen it with the Giants their biggest weakness, especially against the Runners, because they still have linebackers.

So Genty is the exact type of running back you need that can neutralize a good defensive line.

So, like I said, this is a game where I don't know how you feel about it right now.

I just excuse this game came up by a vision because again we only could pick out of eleven games for our contest.

I could easily see this being one fifth or sixth game we talk about just because it's a game I like and it's just gross enough for us to make into the contest.

So I don't feel that strongly about it.

And the rest of the games we're talking about, I think we're all on the fence about so I'm happy to have it.

In consideration, Philadelphia at Buffalo.

Buffalo is a.

One point favorite right now, it's come down from two and a half.

I think the news is really about Josh Allen.

He's been limited in practice because of his foot, and I think also the Eagles have said they're going to play their starters, so talk about you know, in theory, the Eagles kind of have nothing to play for, whereas the Bills actually have something very important to play for.

So it's a little bit of a turning that stat on its head.

You would want to be on the Eagles here.

Unfortunately, I've bet into the Bills at two and a half, I bet them at one.

I bet them on the money line, So I'm over exposed on the Bills here.

I don't feel strongly that we need to that we need to play.

Sorry, Peter out there the end, Yeah, I'm right there with you.

It's I I wanted to be on the Bills.

I like this about a lot for the Bostule.

We just talked about.

It's a team to me that they're going to be putting the foot on the gas, like really want to beat the shitt This Eagles team has it hid in the playoffs for the Eagles, those have got total letdown spot.

Like they've been partying, you know, a couple of nights after they won their division, and they have a bunch of guys coming back from injuries that I don't know if they're gonna play them in this game.

Talking about Lane Johnson the order.

So it's it's a weird one chat where I was right there with you.

I honestly haven't bet anything on the Bills yet.

I do think I'm gonna take a position on them.

I've just been waiting, like you to learn more about Josh Allen.

Is it the foot, is it a bad ankle?

What is the injury?

Is he going to practice Josh Allen?

You know, the biggest thing I always talk about is availability.

The greatest strength of Josh.

Honest he simply does not miss time.

He is one of the toughest guys in entire league.

It's why we all love him, right, not just the numbers he puts up, but it's just a guy that he takes insane hits, he gets the shit kicked out of him, never miss his games.

He never missed his games.

He truly is Superman.

And I've talked about it his future.

It's gonna be interesting how his life goes, you know, how what's josh Aan gonna be?

Like a thirty five thirty four after playing the style he's played, he's twenty nine.

So to me, if he's good to go chet, if he gets cleared, if he gets the shot, I don't mind betting the Bills here.

But if there is no practice all week for him and he's coming in kind of limp here, it's not great.

Like this is a legit good Eagles defensive line that's gonna give him problem, especially if he's playing on one foot.

So this is a game where I thought for sure we'd have it as one of our five.

I don't have enough info cheat it might be a game I just kept it avoid and I don't know if it can be there.

But I do, like I said, I do want to bet on the Bills.

Do not like this all for the Seaguals team, and you know it's it's gonna be interesting following this injury port all day today because you know it's Christmas.

There's a holiday, so obviously Josh in practice yesterday.

I believe we heard he was limited maybe on Wednesday.

Yeah, he does a full walk through, unlike Lamar, Like Lamar hasn't done anything highly don't like Lamar plays.

If we get at least a walk through with Josh Allen, I'll feel much more comfortable bet in the s Bills team knowing it's gonna be him and not Mitch Trubisky.

It's so funny when you said his greatest strength and we don't know what his life is going to be.

Like I was thinking, well, you know, he's having a baby, he just got married, He's got so much going for him, and you're like, thirty four to thirty five, can he still be taking these hits?

But that's because I've learned to love my kids.

I just he gives me major Lway vibes.

Like you remember Elway's knees at the end of his career, they were just falling.

Off the bone.

The dude could barely walk.

Yeah, It just makes me feel the same.

It was just like Elway was a crazy freak athlete, just like Josh Allen or Ben Roethlisberger, another great comp Ben was just like him, impossible to take down in the pocket, his giant statue.

The guy couldn't move from his left to his right at the end of his career because his knees were just so shot.

So I just that's my only word with Josh Allen.

There's nothing else to worry about with him, right, he is Superman.

But it's just houses by gonna help up this guy.

Every time they get close in the red zone.

It just feels like his body's the batter and d He's just one of a con Josh Allen.

So it's it's crazy he's held up this long.

Like I said, this injury it's the only one I can really think of this season that spooked me about him, Right, he's pretty much all season.

We just don't know.

Is it a broken bone the foot, is it an ankle?

We Honestly, everything I've read like I'm looking right now on social media, no one knows.

It's people just literally they're just throwt shit against one hooping something sticks.

No one knows what the real injury is.

I honestly think if he is limited and then does the walkthrough, it's just whatever a bone, BRUI.

I don't think it's anything serious because Josh is the type of guy that he knows like he just he can't miss any games for this team.

Social media is a font of truth, as we all know.

Chicago Bears plus three at San Francisco.

It got up to three and a half and like immediately got bought back down.

I don't know, man, Like I'm so emotionally invested here, Like it's gonna be Sunday night, Hopefully by then I'll be coming out of my COVID stupor and I'll be watching it with my kids and like enjoying it as a family that acts as if we're from Chicago, even though we live in the middle of Connecticut.

But every week feels like a letdown spot for the Bears, And every week now feels like the Niners are overrated, especially coming off five touchdowns and everyone acting like Brock Purty is the MVP who could have been?

So what do we do here?

It's like high Point High Point by Hi by High Everyone's in Vidia in this game.

Yeah, it's it's unfortunately I can't put Chad down.

Chad's Bears down, and we're saying who who they beaten?

Because they have I mean, you look, beat everybody.

Right, and they be playoff teams, right.

They beat Pittsburgh probably gonna a playoff team, beat the Eagles a playoff team.

They'd be Green Bay who because the Lions they are now a playoff team?

Right?

So you know as much you want to get the Bears because all their games come down to the final two minutes.

You know they've put it together this season.

Right, as horrible as their defense has been, what are they leading the league chat and turnover rate?

Because your quarterback doesn't turn the ball over, your defense gets picked.

So they've found their identity, like they really didn't the Ben Johnson right, No, stupid turners.

Offensively and defensively, they bend, they give up yards, no doubt about it, but they don't break.

They get the turnovers they hold up in the red zone.

So I think this Bears can be an undervalued and just looking the splits too, like there's a bunch of different books I'm looking at right now.

The tickets are pretty even.

All the money is on the forty nine Ers, like the pro is clearly in the public have taken a liking to this Niners team, So I think.

The three is right.

I've talked about a nauseum this Niners team.

Yes, they've been winning games, but I've been super suspect of this defense just being held together by bubblegum, Like eventually it's going to come back on you.

You can't be the worst team in the league on getting pressure on the quarterback and not have a bite in the ass once you play good teams like the forty nine Ers.

They've been getting away with it because they've been insane offensively.

I mean Mac Jones, I believe is still the number two, number two quarterback and passer rating against playoff teams this season.

I think Brock is now number five.

So it's like it doesn't matter which quarterback has been in Their offense has been humming this season the Niners team, So I get why the public's coming in on them.

They look at this matchup and they think that they're just gonna roll the Spars team.

But I'm telling you, I think the Bears offensively can keep this close, and we've seen it.

Purty does throw those fifty to fifty balls every now and then, and that's against gonna be against embarrassing that loves quarterbacks that do that, right, they're always looking to very take advantage of that.

And you know they give these unique looks with the leather drop back, the defensive lineman, whatever it is.

They've kind of had these looks where these quarterbacks don't see these type of schemes as Bears teams doing, which is high risk variants.

Right, They're leaving guys wide open to double team certain guys where you know they have the numbers.

They show that they really did a get great against Jalen Hurts, Right, they're really doubling aj They're letting our number three receiver run solo or free because they just knew it hurts.

He's gonna look at his first read, especially when he's getting blit.

So just once again, really impressed by what this Bears team does.

I'm with Chad.

Maybe I'm like Chad, I'm too close to it, but if our contest is three and a half.

There's no way we avoid this one.

There's no way.

I just with the hook.

I love it.

And again I have this game model of two so if I'm getting a point and a half on the team I really like in this Bears team against a forty Nite team that I am very suspicious of, I'm gonna take that number every time.

So yeah, I love this game and it's huge, huge playoff ramifications this one.

This game, shockingly, I can't believe about to say this.

This game could easily decide the one seat in the NFC.

So I can't wait to see it.

This Bears team, man, this is a once in a lifetime type of season if you're a Bears fan, truly is Well, look.

We're gonna have to make a call because we also talked about the Rams and that number is going to be eight and a half in the contest.

We also we don't want a Sunday night game in a mind game in the contest, so you know what I mean, We'll.

See that that game we can be patient on because like again, one of more public books now is down to seven and a half.

So, like I said, the pros they are coming in Atlanta.

I'm more than happy to let that scare us off and we avoid the Rams because I have talked to I'm free and no betting the Rams.

This summer, this this December, I probably should get off the train.

I just can't help it.

It's like they just McVeigh is a covering machine in this month.

I've talked about it, so I have no issue.

I was backing off that Rams side just because I, like I said last week and see that I'm too close to it.

But at some point we're gonna be getting the best of the number.

Like this is now seven and a half.

I mean, if I have that number a ten, how can I avoid that Rams number?

So it's it's just just streeting how much love Atlanta is getting.

It's just you know, like you Chad talked about Drake London's back, you know with Kirk.

Should be a game.

They should be able to keep close against a Rams team that we've seen it now right Their their defense looks like it might be their Achilles heal.

They can be run on if certain holes in their secondary of this Ramps team.

So that's that's a game where I'm not gonna force to make it one of our five.

Chicago.

I would force us to make that one of our five.

I really have a lot bet on that Chicago number.

Oh.

I love for Chicago to be in the contest for us.

I feel like we're making a decision right now.

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All right, simon, biggest bets.

Pull up those pants and be a man quick.

I'll give us some stats.

A lot of people have asked, what are the odds of this playoff pool that we have this year?

So I basically ran my model.

What were the odds before the season of Joe Burrow, Lamar and Patrick Mahomes all missing the playoffs?

Point zero zero seven jaed Jesus, that's the odds of us having this outcome of this season on just the AFC side.

So, I mean, this is like what I dream of with football.

I'm gonna lose.

I have someone to lose a decent amount of money.

The only team I have left in the AFC that I will win money on is if the Bills make the Super Bowl and play the Rams or the Eagles.

That's that's the last hope I have, just because, like I've talked about, I just didn't think Drake may or Bonix would be the type of guys i'd have any type of Super Bowl futures on.

And obviously I have some regrets with that one.

It's favors that I saw teams that missed the playoffs that are winning fifteen games in the prior season two thousand and eight New England Patriots.

Everyone remembers, obviously the torn A cl with Tom Brady twenty sixteen Carolina Panthers, which makes sense, right, That was kind of a fools goed fifteen to one Cam Newton team that just fell off the next season.

The twenty twenty five Chiefs and the twenty twenty five Detroit Lines.

Wow, pretty insane, right, two of them in the same season.

Another one I really loved, which was the one seeds.

So one seeds to be the one seed the year before and then not make the playoffs since two thousand.

We had in two thousand and one Tennessee in the Giants, two thousand and eight New England in the Dallas, two thousand and ninth Tennessee and the Giants Tennessee.

That's kind of crazy.

Three times them, twenty twenty two Tennessee and Green Bay, then obviously twenty twenty five the Chiefs in Detroit.

So it's just really unique.

Right We always talk about the window closes pretty quick?

Do we think the Chiefs windows closed?

No, Detroit, I know the public has left them for dead.

You're a Detroit fan, get ready for it.

I Am going to be betting all of your futures next year.

You literally went from the first place schedule to I think next year you get Arizona, Tennessee and the Giants.

That's gonna be insane.

You guys get fully healthy next year.

So the Troy fans, I know, it's horrible right now, your lives are just I get it, like that was embarrassing.

Probably one of the worst games I've ever seen a quarterback playing Jared Goff other than Jalen Hurts obvious with the five turnovers.

But yeah, it's it's just a unique time right now football, So yeah, for me and my biggest bets, Chad, I'm not gonna lie.

People haven't bet too heavily into these games, right I bet into the Christmas games because they were so early in the week.

Houston, I'm probably gonna take all my larger positions on just because it's tomorrow.

And I want to be there with it.

Seattle, I've bet.

I've been patient.

I've been hoping to get the six and a half.

If I start seeing it tinker back up the seven and a half, I will go very heavy on Seattle at seven.

I'm just hoping to get the six and a half.

I really hope that number gets bet down the professionals.

Cleveland, no surprise that people the three and a half the threes.

I've bet pretty heavy into it, and I just have a feeling comes Sunday, this bare side of the plus three tonna be one of my bigger bets.

So yeah, I really like the dogs this weekend.

I didn't say it because I'm not I'm making myself now I can make it one of my bigger bets.

But I'm I'm very tempted here on Vegas with them being plus one and a half.

It's just I can't believe that line is not a pick let alone.

Then minus one one, so Vegas could get there for for right now though just the two sides are lowed up on his Cleveland and most likely Houston.

My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks Mo doll our Underdog.

Partly, I feel like we're giving ourselves an opportunity here.

Houston the Bears, Yeah, you gotta go Bears, Tennessee.

Cleveland, simple rounded off.

Let's just go the Vegas.

Oh yeah, Vegas and then the favorites m a little.

Tougher, shockingly, but right.

I mean, people probably won't hear this in time, but I put Green Bay in there.

I think they won't hear it any time unfortunately.

Yeah, Hm, Tampa Chat.

How do we not put Tampa's.

Money along Tampa rams?

Yeah?

Rams?

I mean I do two and a half on the rams for that one, and even though we don't know yet, but I just want to do it because it's good value.

It feels like we have to do the bills.

Yeah, all right, Underdog parlay we're doing Uh who did we say we did?

Houston the Bears, Tennessee and Tennessee Cleveland Narraiders, Favorites, Parlay.

We're doing Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, the Rams and the Bills.

Sharp versus Square, my friend last week, I think we both won.

Actually I had Tennessee.

I had Bills ten and a half ten minus ten.

All right, who do you got?

You don't want to go first?

All right, I'll go first.

Give me Tennessee.

I'll go Cleveland, Cleveland plus three.

You're taking Cleveland even though there are brass falls.

That's why I because they were falls.

I'll be the man here.

I'll do what Chad should have done.

Give me Chicago plus three.

There you go.

I like it.

I like it all right, Sharpers's Square.

I'm taking Tennessee.

Simon is taking the Chicago Bears.

This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.

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Love you, Come on baby, one time, one time, one time, one time, one times.

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