Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rocked Bet.

We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Millman.

I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my Campadre professional better Simon Hunter at all.

So iomon, Chad.

How are we doing?

Brother brother?

I got to be a little muted today because I'm sitting in a hotel room.

I'll be in a hotel room for our next two shows.

If you could see, this is the beauty of podcasting in the modern age.

My computer is balanced on the top of a turned over ice container, and there is a light that is half hanging on to the edge of my computer.

So if we get through this whole show, and I'm on hotel WiFi, if we get through this whole show and nothing collapses, that will be the miracle.

Now, I got good faith.

We've had a good run with the hotel WiFi.

We're also having a good run lately.

We went three and two last week and our five favorite picks.

We won with the Browns, we won with the Panthers, we won with the Eagles on Sunday night.

Great call by you.

We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the Rams for the year.

Take a look at the graphic.

Everyone can see.

This is where they get the official updates on our progress.

Thirty one twenty four through eleven weeks of the season.

Sometimes I wish I was only betting these five games and I didn't bet anything else, because I feel like it's the other games that are completely screwing me up.

Simon, this is our Tuesday show.

We'll get through the entire slate.

If you want to see what the final five are, you got to check out the show Sunday am on Sharper Square YouTube page.

Don't forget subscribe to Apple Pods, Spotify wherever you get your pods.

All right, Thursday night football?

Interesting game Buffalo at Houston.

Houston is a six point underdog at hard Rock five and a halfs in a lot of other places.

Look, I mean who's playing QB, And I don't mean for the Texans.

I mean is it Josh Allen who can be inconsistent and looks like he's pressing and is missing receivers?

Or is it Josh Allen the superhuman who had six touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a game that I think everyone is still getting over the hangover because it was so freaking wild.

From the opening drive, the Bills were unstoppable.

It's definitely a game where brow when you saw the numbers, especially there's five and a half's up there, it's like, how do you not want to just take the Bills after the game they've just had and what you just said, what we've seen from Davis Mills and we expected from this Texas team.

So I don't know.

I kind of want to take the Texans now they were at six, but I don't think CJ is gonna play, and that's how he is, either concussions.

It's like everyone's affected differently for them.

So it's really tough to even try to predict it, and it's a type of thing where we don't know it's all in house.

My biggest issue would definitely be Houston as a home team.

I don't know, they just it's not like they have that huge home field advantage, and even their primetime numbers of franchise just aren't good.

It's pretty alarm and they're eighteen and thirty one straight up, fifteen and thirty two against the spread in night games.

So it's just it doesn't matter who the quarterback is.

Historically it's not a good spot for them.

So it makes sense the early money is coming in from the professionals and the public all lined up on this Bills team with so much unknown of as Texans team.

So I guess I'll go Bill's minus five and a half for now if you can find it.

But like we said, it's already minus six a hard rock, I could still I guess the Bills, but.

I know it's super.

Publicly and it's going to be all public money.

But we've seen these Thursday games.

It's just doesn't really matter.

If it's a bad matchup and it's a guy like Davis Mills playing, it's a shootout.

I just don't think he can keep up.

So these these short week games are just tough.

And you know, we expect Josh Allena have a letdown game after putting up six touchdowns, but maybe he's on a roll.

So I'm not going to try to get in front of it.

I don't know about you, John No, No, Josh Allen with the epic I guess back door fa the rare back door favorite cover.

Being down one with five minutes left and winning that game by twelve is what closed it a six and a half point favorite.

Davis Mills.

Look, it's a short week.

CJ's still in the protocol.

He we don't know what's going to be happening.

He hasn't been cleared yet.

They got the Bills, Colts and Chiefs on the docket.

The Texans are five hundred.

You wonder, all right, do they sit him one more game, make sure that he's healthy for the division game where that might be in the standings for the playoffs, potentially more important down the road.

Davis Mills.

I thought this was interesting.

Again, I'm not advocating for betting the Texans in any way.

Davis Mills had another last fourth quarter come from behind win on Sunday that was his second in a row.

The last time Davis Mills started a game before this season was the last game of twenty twenty three, when he led a come from behind win for the Texans when they were in position to have the number one overall pick.

But that win knocked them out of the number one overall pick.

The Texans might very well have Bryce Young right now instead of c.

J.

Stroud if Davis Mills does not win that game for Lovey Smith, who immediately got fired forgetting his team to win at the end of that twenty twenty three season.

My point in saying all that is, who knows.

Maybe Davis Mills is just really good in the fourth quarter at the only time that matters, and the rest of the game he's just tortured to watch.

Possible.

Yeah, that's impossible.

Consistent to now it is.

The Bills also gave up two hundred yards to the Tempate Buccaneers rushing on Sunday, so we know that their defense has not gotten better.

It's going to be can Josh Allen do something against this Texans defense?

That's really going to be the game.

Seattle minus thirteen versus Tennessee.

They're visiting the Tennessee Titans.

We talked about this one on Sunday night.

You pegged it immediately.

I know, I bet Seattle on Sunday at twelve and a half.

I'm assuming you did as well.

Totally a big number, but the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that just played the type and held them to thirteen points.

And it took a miracle to get there, and its offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers for that matter, both of which were in position to cover big numbers late in the game.

So I feel like the universe should right itself with this one.

Yeah, And I said this is a spot I would never usually take.

I just blindly would take home dog, especially this big, and a lot of the numbers do back it up playing dogs this big at home.

Just so people know why this is a rare spot for me to Yawks.

So since twenty twenty, favorites of eleven of points are more three and seven against the spread, which is pretty bad.

They're actually five and five straight up in those games.

So it's a weird thing where these teams that are big favorites juggernauts lose these games.

But I don't think it's here.

I think we just saw a Tennessee's best shot that we go for in a divisional game.

I agree.

Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut.

So I just said those trends just to give up.

People couldn't believe when I was saying I like the Seahawks, and I said I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot.

But this lay in the season with a number of this big, Like I said, the books were gonna be begging for Tennessee money and they opened it too short, and I think it's still too short, Like why is this not above fourteen years?

So Tennessee, we've seen it this year.

We've been burned by these fluky random points they get, like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward, they just they've been a covering machine.

But here it feels like it's a great spot for Seattle, who they are eight and two against the spread this season.

Seattle so like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers, and it's really if you go and look, it's them being up on bad teams.

They do really well against bad teams.

So I think it's just their defense is so so well coached they really don't give an inch.

And then offensively, we just saw Seam Donald have his worst game of the year.

It just feels like the exact spot he needs to get right.

So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I don't really think she all having much of a run game ops, but passing wise, they should torch the secondary.

So yeah, I still like this number as long as you're getting under fourteen.

Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways.

That's been sort of the issue for Seattle.

So I think this is a really good opportunity for Donald to get right.

And I think we did get a little bit of a lower number on Sunday and even today because of the stink of what Donald did and people thinking, oh, Donald, he's back, you see him ghosts again.

I don't think that's the case.

We've seen him have bad games.

He had a bad game in the playoffs last year against the Rams and then came back and has been an MVP candidate for most of the year.

So this is when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate, is against a very bad Tennessee Titans team.

I broke my rule last week.

I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a road team.

They've just been so good to me, and you know, under their head coach, they're nine and three against the spreading the season they're five and one, so they're just covering machines of the road.

They just get up on a McDonald.

So, uh, you gotta bet it.

I don't know.

It's just I just I'm trying not to number scare me off.

It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's worthy of it.

They're just a really talented team.

You know what's weird.

We talked about it on Sunday.

I didn't hesitate, didn't feel like it felt like a big number that Seattle should win this game.

Thirty four to three.

Lock it in clip that for Monday.

That'd be nice.

Pittsburgh at Chicago.

Chicago was a three point favorite.

This opened a two and a half after the Mason Rudolph Aaron Rodgers.

After Aaron Rodgers was injured in the game and it became clear, or at least people thought Mason Rudolph would be starting this next week.

Aaron Rodgers has a fractured left wrist.

Surgery not required.

It's still not determined if he will be playing this Sunday.

But this is a Mason Rudolph line today Simon, According to Owen Millman via Larry Mayer on Twitter, this was texted to me right before we started recording by Owen.

Today is Caleb Williams twenty fourth birthday.

He was born November eighteenth, two thousand and one Cordner, Larry Mayer, and Owen Millman.

He is the only player currently on the Bears roster who was born on a day that the Bears played a game.

They beat the Temp Bay Buccaneers twenty seven twenty four behind three touchdowns from Jim Miller, not so Bears legend who turned into a Bears broadcasting legend.

He threw three touchdowns to Marty Booker Bears one twenty seven to twenty four and the Bay He needs to be first place Chicago Jim Miller to Marty Poker Dale by John Lynch with Poker Holdsohn touchdown Poker Canal.

Happy birthday to our favorite quarterback, Caleb william Will you be betting again on Caleb Williams this weekend?

Simon, I hate this game so much because I feel like I have to go against the Bears.

I feel like I'm blind.

You too, Yeah, it's too much.

Much.

It's not a Tomlins spot like we make it out to be.

Evan had some really great stats in this game, and the biggest one I took away from this one was just as a road underdog, what.

Tomlin's been doing lately.

He's actually lost four straight straight up and against the spread, and that's the first time it's happened for Pittsburgh since twenty eleven, so it's kind of interesting they've he's actually struggled.

In this spot on the road as a dog as of late.

But it's like, all right, what kind of Bear stats I have to go against here, because I just can't.

We've talked about the Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass now for five six weeks, Like it's just been incredible the games they pulled out in one where they just they're not playing their best, but they're just so well coached and they just find a way.

They just keep believing in themselves.

And there's is a unique spot Bears who won three straight games by five points or less in the last twenty years teams in this exact spot.

They went twelve and twenty three against the spread in that six game, so historically it usually catches up to them.

More so the fact that they're a favorite now is it because of Mason Rudolph, Like we've bet we've bet Pittsburgh with Mason Rudolph Duck College's We've we've bet this before in the spot chat.

So like the fact of the public hates Pittsburgh.

The public's over the Bears as well.

Finally, what it feels like every week the public's kind of gone against the Bears year.

It feels like it's the right spot to take Steelers.

But it's it's pain in me.

I just I don't want to go.

But there's something magic about this Bears team.

They're just so well coached, and I think they've got to run the ball against the Steelers team.

But we've seen it, Tom fies away and I just think this is just playing the number.

It's it's too it's too big A plus three.

Yeah, I agree, as much as it pains me to bet against the Bears in this spot.

All of it just yuels that we've seen this before, right.

We've seen this with the Vikings a couple of years ago.

We saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayball's first year.

We saw it with the Chiefs last year.

There are teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, ten games where they win by one score, and you keep expecting it every week, like how do you how do you figure out when the aggression?

Regression is going to come?

That's what makes it so difficult because at some point you either got to get off the train and try to time that perfectly.

It's like timing the market.

How do you time the freaking market?

You know, who's everybody selling your team?

Like they're graded as one of the worst teams in NFL history in the last like twenty five years to be seven and three, just like all the underlying numbers and data.

Totally, that's why I love football.

It's like, it don't matter.

You gotta just line up and play the game.

They keep finding a way.

So I get what people are saying, but end of the day, it doesn't matter.

Meaning it doesn't matter.

We're taking the Steelers.

Still taking the Steelers.

I'm just saying.

It's a Bears fan, I wouldn't care.

It's like, we know our team's not that good, but we're seven and three.

Who cares?

Yeah?

Oh totally, but I did.

I will tell you this.

I will tell you this as a Bears fan.

You know, I watch all the videos Ben Johnson in the locker room.

He's amazing.

You know, good, better, best, never let it rest, all those kinds of things.

I also thought to myself, oh my god, there's still seven games left.

In the year.

I can't the way the Bears have played and the way they won they've won these games, I could easily see them losing their next seven games.

Yeah, the magic numbers three to me.

If you can get three wins with you guys have a brutal schedule in the season, you can get the really mean, you can get the ten wins.

That's why I like, it's tough for me here where I know you how desperate there they need to win this one.

But that doesn't matter in football, Like, it doesn't matter if you need to win this game.

It's it's really about the number.

And yeah, I just think plus three and the Steelers is.

Right, all right, Simon talking about numbers New York Giants visiting the Detroit Lions.

This number has moved from eleven and a half to ten and a half since the Lions got just beat up, hammered, bamboozled by the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night and look the Giants.

We talked about it last week with Jamis.

We had to bet on Jamis just for a little taste because of the roller coaster that is the full Jamis experience, and we got it with Jamis last week where he had that team in contention to win the game, leading for much of it.

Then they're down seven points with forty four seconds left around the Packers eighteen yard line.

Jamis goes back to pass, throws it to the end zone.

Jalen Hyatt picked off in the corner of the end zone.

You can't blame Jamis for this one A covered because the number was seven and a half, so God bless, but also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route.

And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy.

It was Jalen Hyatt not doing his job.

I don't know that the Giants have the same deadcat bounce against a desperate desperate and that's what they are right now.

Detroit Lionstein, it's shockingly going to be my Simon says, to give me, Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bett minus ten and a half.

I want to play a game.

Simon says, Wow, it's it's a big favorite.

But it's really about this lines and how we always just play this spot and it's just good to us.

We always talk about giving out long term winners, and this is the definition of one.

Tons of stats here why it's so good to back the Lions here And it's a unique spot, right, You're coming off a week where data converted a single fourth down where immediately issue as that happened.

It's good.

I was like, all right, I gotta find some staff.

Hello, de try.

You what is this Lion's team like after they don't get a single fourth down the week before?

Shockingly, they're nine and one straight up, which you know, okay, they do bounce back after the struggle of the week, but they're eight and two against the spread in games after they fail to cover a fourth down, so pretty imparent they've bounce back in this game, and those games they've covered, they've covered by an average of ten points per game in that spot.

So that's just bringing in what it's like after they struggle on fourth down.

Now, let's get to all the golf stats.

We know golf in these games, he's always big a bouncing back because lines have just been so good, and we've talked the last three years they've been seventy percent against the spread, So you're gonna have some really good stats with golf and Campbell as a combo, and all of a straight up loss, they're twenty two and eight against the spread, So they just tend to bounce back and the.

Books don't account for it, so we always play that spot.

And they're actually shockingly covered thirteen in a row in this spot, so they haven't not covered after a loss since November one of twenty twenty two.

Shout out to my guy Evan Abrams.

That's an amazing stat where it's like they're just a machine after these type of losses and you go, okay, well, this is a big spread.

What is their record when the spread's above four?

Golf and Campbell, they're perfect eight to zero against the spread when the spread is higher than four after a straight up loss, So feels like a really good bounce back spot.

We talk of the time Golf indoors after a loss twenty four and seven against the spread, So it's like, again, it's just all points to it, and you just look at the on field matchup wise, the getting upfield can be neutered by the Giants with a good run game, and we know what Detroit want to do.

They want to run the ball.

They just kind of get it done against an Eagles team that just has a really different front.

They arguet great against the run because they have great linebackers, which the Giants do not.

That's the Giant's biggest weakness.

So love the match of the Lions, love all the trends for this Lions team.

And yeah, I can't believe in making an over ten point favorite my favorite bet, but I've just been been heavy into it, so I figure out to give it out.

Can I support you because I want to support you, because I will support you?

Which Lions team are we getting?

Right?

That's what people are going to ask.

Are we getting the Lions and outdoors week one, who scored six points against the Packers?

Are we getting the Lions outdoors in Week eleven who scored nine points against the Eagles?

Or are we getting the Lions in Week two who beat the Bears at home indoors by thirty one?

Are we getting the team to beat the Browns indoors at home by twenty four?

A We're getting the team to beat the Bucks indoors at home by fifteen.

It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been this excited about the Lions.

Talk about rescoring the roar, listen to them.

Who do we think the Giants are more like?

The Bearers in week two, the Browns whenever.

That's why I feel confident, like everything you just said about a bounce back spot on Jared Goff and this team has shown us enough that they know how to manage when things aren't going well, and they will have a sort of mentality that does not accept this kind of performance.

We've already seen it multiple times this year.

I do believe we will see it again this week.

You get the Giants betting against Jamis, and the full Jamis experience does not scare me here.

Simon, you're my bff, You're Mike Campadre, you're my co host.

I'm with you one hundred percent minus ten and a half for this.

I will ask that in return you support me later in the show.

That's fair, And like I said, it's just a unique spot lines.

That was the first time they have scored double digits in like fifty games, so you know they got embarrassedlack we last week putting them nine points, and you know, I just don't think the public will be on him here.

So that's why I'm making it this bet.

I just don't think people are a little scared off by them right now, and they might be sucked in on this Giants team.

This number, I just I want you to take the Lions here.

It's too low.

This number ship closer to thirteen.

But you're getting some points here because one team covered and looked pretty well, played pretty well, where the Lions just got embarrassed.

And that's the last thing people remember.

Look, we do have to ask why do we think it moved from eleven and a half to ten and a half on you know, Sunday night and Monday, because that wasn't the public betting into the eleven and a half.

Yeah, well, I mean the professionalism bent the Giants this year and it's been good for him, So it's probably what it is.

They just they like the Giants the profitable, but the Giants.

This year we don't.

And we'll take all the sharp calls.

Yeah we really haven't.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens.

Ravens are thirteen and a half, has moved down half a point.

We're already on the Seahawks, We're already on the Lions.

I feel no need to figure out a way to bet the Ravens and I can't find a way to bet the Jets.

I don't know, I shockingly kind of like the Ravens, but I get what you're saying.

I just I can't get over how bad this Jets team is and terrible.

Like my biggest.

Issue is Lamar in this team.

They're definitely not worthy of this number in any sense.

They have not played well consistently at all this season.

The hardest part for me is just going through all the numbers where it's like the more the Ravens they own the Jets every time they play.

They just dominate this team historically.

And you know at home, Ravens six and zero straight up five and one against the spread against the Jets, winning by fourteen points per game historically.

And I don't know if people know this.

The Ravens only been around since like ninety nine or two thousand.

It's not like a long battle.

They've just dominated in the last twenty five years.

Lamar is more of an eight point favorite his career.

He's sixteen to eleven against this spread.

So if you are going to bet the Ravens, I get it.

I think me and Chat I've already talked about we're allar enough favorites this week.

I can avoid this, but I get it like I'm tempted here.

I just think this Jets teams atrocious and they could easily get rolled here in many different ways.

So I got away over the last week with Cleveland against this Ravens team.

I'm not trying to go back to the well the Jets.

So I'll end up in my pick pulls, probably end up on the Ravens.

But I know, people, I'm on three huge favorites this week.

It's it's a weird week.

Well, look that I was just gonna say, Like the flip side is we just bet the Ravens to cover our bases to make sure if we're betting three big favorites, we got them all, and we don't choose the two that lose and we leave out the one that wins.

My buddy is a sucker who bets ten point like teasers.

He is loving this week, and I'm like, my god, this is usually not a good sign.

The first game.

I agree with you about Lamar.

In the first game against Miami, to me, he wasn't great, but that was sort of an ease yourself in game after the injury, and last week we knew we didn't expect him to be great because it was against the Browns.

It was a rock fight.

This to me feels like when with the Ravens having now for in a row, this is when Lamar sort of gets comfortable and unleashes, knowing that he's not against division rival on the road and it's not his first game back, when he's a little bit still a little bit tentative.

So I can't bet the Jets.

So it's Ravens or or nothing.

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Simon.

The New England Patriots are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Bengals are seven and a half point favorites.

Joe Flacco may still be banged up.

Jamar Chase will not be in the game because he was spitting on Jalen Ramsey.

Everything about this game with a Bengals secondary that is so suspect and so susceptible to big plays.

Second most yards per past, the most EPA, highest EPA per past the forced fourth, lowest QB pressure rate.

I don't think I need to go on yet.

The fact that the hook is still out there baiting us is weird to me because it's clear the books are just hoping against hope, against hope.

The professional betters are going to come in on the Bengals because they know how much money they're going to get on the Patriots.

Yeah, easy bet, easy spot, long term winner if Bengals.

If it's Joe Flacco, it's a no brainer.

But if it's not, I am happy to not have zero dollars and not invest in this game and walk away from it.

So I got money to burn, I can bet.

I'll bet the Bangal here people want to be patient and make sure it's Flacco.

I can't fault you for it because I will not have any money invested in a Bengals quarterback not named Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow.

So to me, if you're looking for why this.

Is such a magical spots, it's the key thing we talk about all the time with football is how hard it is to win consistently.

It is so hard to string together wins consistently.

And that's what's been shocking about this Patriots team.

And they're in a unique spot.

They've won eight straight games, this team that like again another team the nerds are just beating up because they're just not as good as their record perceives and how the public per season.

They're just simply not so.

It's I think where I like, I love and respect for Abel and I think that's part of the record and how great Mays played obviously at MVP level, but again eight straight games they won.

Now they're on the road.

Teams in this exact spot since twenty ten, fourteen and thirty four against the spread.

Nightmare, And like you just keep going back, you know, teams an eight wins streak are thirty nine sixty sixty one and two against the spread, so thirty nine percent since twenty ten.

That's eleven and twenty and one against the spread since twenty twenty.

So like all these numbers like you give you people, it's just a really really bad spot.

It's just hard to play at a high level consistently and just not have things bounce against you.

Like we say all the time.

It's a really stupid game with a weird shad ball.

It's just not going to bounce your way and eventually it's going to catch up to you.

So we're simply playing the number here.

There is zero information a data I could give you why to back this Bengals team on the field.

They are terrible defensively.

The Patriots, especially scheme wise, can outscheme them.

Drake may is playing at such a high level, it's just simply playing a number on an overvalied Patriots team.

Are they better than the Bengals?

Yeah?

Are they seven and a half points better when it's Joe Flacco?

No, that's that's an egregious number where I think that Bengals can keep it close and this this Patriot's defense can be passed on.

So it's just once again not going to be hammered because it's out.

We don't know yet he's gonna be the quarterback, but historically it's just a bad spot for this Patriots team.

But the books, the number reflects that if this was six and a half, I could talk us into taking the Patriots now it was still under seven.

But it's not.

It's just moved too much.

In my opinion, I got to give about the seven and a half on the Bengals.

Totally agree.

This is a week where there's a lot of from a historical betting perspective and from the way professionals like to look at these games, and we've got a couple of them coming up.

Weird spots, numbers in which the advantage is to the team that just got blown out and it makes you uncomfortable.

And one of those games is definitely the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven and a half.

They are just begging you to take that seven and a half.

I'm with you.

I'll be curious to see.

Like on Thursday, we're gonna have another conversation about this one.

The more about the quarterback.

But if that seven and a half is out there, I would not be uncomfortable playing it, like the confidence I have today not having a guess that was just guy.

We got so many games going to be brutal for us this week, Indy at Kansas City.

Kansas City is a three point favorite.

This one has moved from three and a half down to three.

It looks like it could move back to three and a half.

The juice is telling us it's going to move back to three and a half.

I have an opinion.

I think I know where you are.

That's my opinion.

I just want to make this statement.

I want to sort of illuminate you.

Ready, Yeah, what defense gave Mahomes the most trouble in the early part of this decade?

Was it the bills?

Uh no you start no, no, no, no, no, just say yes or no, yes or no?

Was it the Bills?

Go with me on my gimmick?

Here was it the Ravens?

No Cincinnati Bengals.

Who was the team that consistently beat Who was the team that said they owned Patrick Mahomes?

Remember all the fights between the mayors of Cincinnati and Kansas City.

Who is the defensive coordinator for that Bengals team?

Who is now the defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts?

Lou anroumo I looked at the stats twenty twenty one when the Bengals went to the Super Bowl and beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, and twenty twenty five with the Colts defensively, the stats are almost exactly the same running I would say eighty percent of the same scheme.

If this Colts defense is healthy, can they get into Mahomes Lanes the way those Bengals teams that gave them the most trouble used to do?

Yeah?

Why are you laughing at me?

It's you.

I just let how long you go with some of these things?

I don't know.

I felt like we were gonna take I'm gonna take the Colts no matter what.

I wanted to get back to three and a half.

So I'm not going to force an this show, but this was gonna be what mis Simon says if it was three and a half start hard Rock.

I really love the Colts.

It's stupid, but there's certain teams players just struggle with, and Mahomes has always struggled against the Colts, doesn't matter who the quarterback has been.

I mean, he literally lost in his career.

He has one and two straight up and against the spread against the Colts.

His two losses one was Matt Ryan, the other one was Jacoby Brissett, So Matt Ryan in twenty twenty two, Jacoby Brissett and I don't even know twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen.

He's just struggled against him for whatever reason that is.

And it's a unique spot.

It's a Colts team off of bye week, which you know, bad teams, I don't think bye weeks are that big of a deal, but really well coached teams, I think it is a big deal.

And the Colts, to me, are really well coached team, even how bad their defense is.

They've been really competitive in every game they've been this year.

And you know, it all goes back, it goes back to this Mahomes team, it's not the same mahone And we've said it this year.

There is something a little different and it's starting to show up what the difference is.

They're zero to five in one score games.

It's like we talked about it.

Yeah, like at the end of.

The day, that's the biggest thing, right, it's just not winning close games and just doesn't feel like a game they blow out, right, I don't know about you.

I don't think they blow out the Colts.

It can happen, right, It's Daniel Jones.

We know we're been into.

He could totally pumpkin throw three four picks and that's how it goes.

But just matchup wise, it's it's really a two.

This number should be most people have this model two one and a half.

The Chiefs are getting the bump from what they've done before and the same thing I talked about that Broncos number.

I just they weren't a three and a half point better team.

I didn't think they'd went out right, But you know that's that's the year it's been for this Chiefs team.

So a lot of unique stats to back here with this Colts team.

It's a rare spot right, it's a cold team going off of by facing against a Mahomes team and Chiefs team teams in this exact spot against Mahomes there's six and three against the spread, covering by five points in those matchups, So Mahomes struggled when those teams are underdogs against Mahomes in this spot.

So off of bye week.

Playing Mahomes, they are six and one against the spread.

The only loss forty nine ers in that Super Bowl against the Chiefs.

So historically this is a good spot.

Think about what needed to go right in that Super Bowl for Mahomes not only to cover, but win that game.

I don't know people remember, it's like everything broke their way in that fourth quarter.

So it feels like we have a lot of things work in our favorite with this Colts team.

It's really about the line.

I'm not going to make people bad a bad line like hard rock.

We say they're a sharp book.

The Pros have hit the Colts.

They bet this down, shop around, go find the three and have find the hook on the Colts because we'll need it.

This game easily could be the Chiefs winning by three.

We know Mahomes is due to have a type of game.

But it's just about the number for me.

I just I think we're getting inflated line of the Colts, well rested Colts team that going to be able to move a ball against this Chiefs defense.

Minnesota at green Bay.

Green Bay is a six and a half point favorite at home.

Right now, Josh Jacobs is questionable.

It's possible we're gonna have to make a call on this game without knowing his availability.

At the end of the day, I'm not sure that matters because the Vikings defense continues to be suspect against the run, giving up one hundred and forty yards to the Bears.

What we do know is that JJ McCarthy is very good in the first fifteen and very good when his team is down in the fourth quarter, and in between, he looks like a rookie who's overthinking, not thinking inaccurate when he's not pressured.

If this were seven, do we bet the number and bet the Vikings assuming cardiac JJ will kick open the back door at six and a half.

I'm not really into this game.

Yeah, I think we're both in the same page.

I just we don't trust either quarterback or either a team right now, Green Bay or the Vikings.

This feels like a Vikings number.

I am shocked they've kept it under seven.

Maybe I'm underrating all the injuries the Packers have suffered, But how can you trust JJ.

On the road.

He's just so inconsistent, He's so bad.

You would think this would be such a big moment, too big of a spot for him to show up.

But my god, they're just getting pounded by Packers and money and this is touch seven a couple of times and come right back down, so slay.

The pros are on the Vikings, they're back on them here, and yeah, it's a it's a unique spot, right the Packers for some reason LA floor struggle against KOC.

Like historically they're in a weird spot too, where they've lost three straight or they've lost two straight I should say against the spread and straight up against the Vikings, which hasn't happened in since two thousand and five for the Packers.

So whatever it is these last couple of years, I guess going towards the Vikings.

But I still think some of those stats, it's like I just I can't get over how bad JJ is.

So yeah, I think we're on the same boat.

I'll pass this one.

I probably should be on the Packers, but I just I can't trust them right now.

Is big favorites agree.

I don't know if we're going to agree on this next one, but I asked you for support and this is going to be one of those games.

Cleveland at Las Vegas.

Las Vegas right now is a three point favorite.

It's moving higher most books that are three and a half, which makes me sort of not want to offer it.

And it's almost Chad's choice.

The Las Vegas Raiders minus three look last night was ugly.

And when George Pickens starts looking like he's Darnell Washington, the three hundred pound tight end for the Steelers, and he's running over people, he's running through people, he's stiff arming people.

Plus he's making guys look like they're not even trying to tackle them.

That is a bad look for Raiders, for the Raiders defense, it's a bad look for people betting on the Raiders.

It's a bad look for people rooting for the Raiders.

Gino did his part getting the team into or just outside the red zone, throwing picks, taking sacks, not getting them touchdowns.

However, team coming off a blowout at home against a team that just had its max effort in the prior week, a Browns team we know gives up ten more points per game on the road than it does at home.

This feels like a light them up, Gino moment.

Prove you're a professional.

I'm on the Raiders a minus three.

Let's have a conversation to a minus three and a half, because that's where I think we're gonna have to make a real decision.

Because I agree with you and everything you've said.

My biggest reason just for you to take the Raiders here is just Sanders possibly might have put up the worst quarterbacking we've ever seen, just data wives like, which is shocking if you go through how horrible some quarterbacks are playing.

I mean, I'm blank on his name.

I just had I just lost it.

I remember we had a guy who started against the Chargers.

I think he threw like five or six picks in his first start.

Oh, I know you were talking about he played for the Bills for a while too.

I think that's the fifth interception tonight from.

We've just had a run of just horrible quarterbacks, and even that, Sanders somehow did worse in his performance, so I'll support it.

It's a unique spot too, where it's it's a Browns quarterback making their first start, which we've joked, but we've been playing it.

We automatically play the other side and take the money line because it's it's got proof to it that they're ow to seventeen their last seventeen quarters for Sanders.

The last time a quarterback is one making his first start for the Browns was nineteen ninety five.

Do you remember the name of the quarterback?

It wasn't Tim Couch was it.

First name was Eric Eric Kramer.

I don't know.

His last name was spelled ze i e R.

Yeah, he played quarterback for Georgia.

I think his number.

I've never heard of him.

So you remember him from back in the day.

Okay, yeah, I remember from back in the day.

So that's the last time a Browns quarterback has started and won.

His first their exire I think was his name, Yeah, nineteen ninety five.

Check.

Yeah, So that's what I.

Want to be against you and be like this is we're backing Genos Smith, which you know, anyone can look up the numbers.

Gino Smith.

I think he's eleven and twenty against the spread as a favorite.

He just you hate him as a dog.

You don't want to bet him as a favorite.

He's even worse as a favorite.

He's terrible as favorite.

But too late.

Yeah, it feels like a unique spot.

Are we going to take Raderos on minus three and a half?

That's that's the choice there.

And once again it's there's a bunch of spots, uh, numbers that are just bad against the Browns.

I haven't sanders here the Browns since twenty twenty two.

When they're playing a team with a one percentage below forty percent on the road, they are two and nine straight up, one and eleven against the spread.

They've lost seven in a row in this spot, and we've talked about they're just a different team.

They're terrible in the road.

This Browns team, their defense just simply doesn't travel.

So I hate this one.

I was hoping we don't get avoid it, not bet it.

But I know there's a lot of numbers we love the Raiders.

So I'll be up front people, I'm gonna be heavy on the money line of the Raiders.

I don't know how much I'm gonna touch minus three and a half.

I just I can't get over it.

G you know, minus three and a half favorite, But I have a feeling chat might get me there come Sunday morning.

Well, listen, if we're not gonna do Geno, then let's do something else that's really gross.

And this one is gonna be Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock Bat.

I am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Are you sure you want to do this?

Are you willing to make a choice?

My choice?

We can't run from way?

Are sharp news can just see it?

You know what I mean?

I know, I know.

I just bet the Cardinals plus three against the Niners didn't work out for us.

I know.

Jacoby Brissett just sent a just set a record forty seven completions, going forty seven to fifty seven in the game against the Niners.

This is a team that started off playing very competitive and has been trending worse and worse and worse and worse every single week.

But I don't think Trevor Lawrence is long for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let me give you some stats, because the Jags just beat the Chargers thirty five to six.

Liam Cone basically took the ball out of Trevor Lawrence's hands in that game.

On the first TD drive of the game in the first quarter, he threw two short passes, there was a long DPI and then it was all runs.

On the third drive of the game, he threw a pick.

Overall, he was fourteen of twenty two for one hundred and fifty three yards.

They ran it forty seven times for one hundred and ninety two yards.

My point is, I got a team at home as a dog off a blowout against a team that just blew somebody out, and if you're just looking at the score, you think that it's a really powerhouse team and they're not.

I'm just not going to be a buyer of the Jags.

I'd much rather invest in the Cardinals.

It's moving to three, so like I wish I could have waited and made it Chad's choice at plus three.

It just hasn't gotten there yet.

Yeah, and the backup a little what you're talking about bout it being a blowout.

Since nineteen ninety, we've had teams blow.

A fourteen point lead entering the fourth quarter a couple of times, and they tend to bounce back right the following game.

So when they do bounce back the game after that game, they are seven and twenty four straight up, nine and twenty against the spread.

And even more so, since twenty sixteen, teams in this exact position that this Jaguars team is in, they are zero to seven against the spread.

It's just a bad spot.

The win the game after the comeback, So basically I'm blown out or not?

I shouldn't they blown out?

They get a team come back by down by fourteen to fourth quarter, they win the next game like they did, big, big win.

They tend to lose the following game, right.

There's a letdown there.

And that's what I like about these trends of stark updata because it just shows it doesn't matter if it's different teams and the people changed, it's it's human like these guys have a letdown.

It's just only natural.

On the flip side, this has to be rock Bottom buying the Cardinals.

They did something that I've never seen.

I'm gonna look into it if it's real, but in my life I cannot remember again.

Going back twenty five years now, Flying Football, a team gave up forty points to a divisional opponent and then gave up another forty the following week to a divisional opponent.

You just don't see it, Like they gave up forty four points to Seattle then forty one to the forty nine ers.

So you would think their coach, who's a defensive guy, would get it right and this would be a spot they would bounce back against Trevor Lawrence and this Jags team.

Like it's just it feels like a really nice lined up spot for this Cardinals team to get a win and bounce back where they've struggled.

Right, they had that huge Monday night game against Dallas, and they've not handled it well.

They got like I just said, they got blown out two games in a row against divisional opponents.

You expect them to bounce back get right here, and like Chad said, this is really about the number.

Like this Jaguars team, this is going to be a public darling.

People are hammering right now, and they're undervaluing of Cardinals team that, Yeah, they've looked bad, they've been embarrassed.

They're not three points worse than this Jaguars team and Trevor Lawrence.

So I'm with you, Chad, I like the Cardinals here.

Can we not talk about Atlanta at New Orleans?

New Orleans is a two point favorite at home.

That's astonishing to me.

Like terrible teams.

Falcons went from three to two to three and sevens three and seven.

Poenix is likely out for the year.

Tyler Shock versus Kirk Cousins.

I mean, it's icy hot Bowl too.

After the Flacco Rogers game between how old these guys are, so let's pass.

We can.

I mean, I'm like you, I wanted to be on I want to be in Atlanta.

Maybe that should be assigning me I should be on the Saints though, because like you said, you shouldn't have a real opinion on this game.

I will give some stats just we all know how terrible Kirk is, but I really want people to hear these numbers just about how atrocious Kirk Cousins has been.

They are one in five straight up owens, six against the spread, and Kirk's last six starts dating back the last season and Kirk's career, which again he was pretty good.

The guy made a ton of money.

He is is eight games against the Saints.

He's four and four straight up, three and five against the spread, against the Saints.

Even more glaring.

In his last four games against the Saints, he is oh and four against the spread.

In the Super Doom, he was owing three against the spread.

He's just he's gotten worse when the numbers back it up.

He's consistently got worse, and it's hard not to overrate him because it's like we're seeing it right now.

I almost got sucked in.

I'm getting Kirk at some books of plus two against the Saints.

They almost got me, Chad, they almost got me.

Even for the show I talked about It's like, man, I kind of like the Falcons here, but the more you look into the numbers, he's just been atrocious.

It's just I can't back him here.

So I really wanted to fade the Saints.

Like again, they came off a huge win, then had a bye week, you expect them just to totally faulter here in this spot.

But maybe the Falcons are what they are, just one of the worst teams in football, loss of five or six straight games.

Now Kirk Cousins in there, who's just been deader than dead, Like I just read those stats.

He's just been atrocious.

So yeah, I guess people can pass on it for my pickpolls and other stuff.

I'll play in a bet in the Saint especially at minus one and a half.

Uh Philadelphia Dallas.

Dallas is now at hard Rock a three point underdog.

When this game opened, it was Philadelphia minus four and a half, so it's come down quite a bit.

It's a three and a half in a lot of places, but three at hard Rock, so a point and a half to a point.

I think it's one of the hardest games on the board to handicap this week because are we buying the Cowboys improved defense, you know, with Quinn Williams and all those guys who came back and they they got to look good against a bad Raiders team?

Like are we worried about the Eagles offense still now?

With Lane Johnson being injured, Fred Johnson is playing in his place.

I think that's kind of a big deal.

We've seen how ineffective this offense can be without Lane Johnson, and it's more ineffective than when they're playing with Lane Johnson.

So I'm having a hard time with this one.

Well, We'll say this as an Eagles fan from the top.

The Eagles are well wearing their Kelly Greens, which they are five straight up, four and one against the spread twenty twenty three.

But no, the the professionals are showing their hands here.

They just they've taken this number down from four and a half to three.

Shocking to me.

Shocking to me.

The Eagles are such, so, so much better than this Cowboys team in every aspect.

The only the only spot you feel confident more obviously is the Cowboys is the fact that they have a passing offense that seems like it travels and it plays pretty well.

But this is going to be the hardest defense the Cowboys have faced obviously this year.

So and minus three I'm tempted to give up the Eagles here, but I've put my money behind the Cowboys at a plus number.

It's just the Eagles offense is so battering now, it's so dysfunctional.

It has to catch up to them.

Like they can't keep getting away, keep getting away from the need it coming to God or coming to Jesus moment here, they just they got to fire the oc like it's it's egregious at this point.

And this, like I talked about coming to the season, my biggest fear was Siany won his Super Bowl and now they're letting him pick his OC and he picked his friend Kevin Patalou who up to this point it's just been egregious.

The offense is just so bad.

It's gotten a zero imagination.

You only get defended so much.

If that's such a tough schedule, it's like, well, here is an opportunity.

They're playing against one of the worst defenses in football.

Where I get they got guys back, I still think it does should not make a difference.

Like Gino was one that blew that game.

They should have had a fourteen to three lead to start that game.

He had them settling for field goals.

I just we've seen the Eagles team if they get moving, if they get to the red gene, they tend to score unless they turn the ball over.

So yeah, I cannot believe hard rockets hit to set three.

It's really tempting to me to give out the Eagles here, but unfortunately I've already bet the Cowboys, so I think it comes back up and it's a Cowboys number three and a half.

But I minus three.

If you haven't made a bet, I think that's a good Cowboy.

Good Eagles number.

It's just at this point you're betting the Cowboys to win, because that's I don't know, I just can't see it.

I cannot see this number staying at three for this Eagles team.

If it's stays at three, I might need to load up on this Cowboys side, because that's that to tell by the books if they hold at that number, because it's gonna be Eagles will be one of the more public sides of the week if they hold it three.

Yeah, I'm gonna want to talk about this game again on Thursday, even if we don't think we're gonna have it in the final five.

I think there's so much more to unpack with it, and we need another two days to see how the numbers.

Cowboys on a short week too, It's just I can't believe the pros are loaded up on the Cowboys.

Really interesting, given.

A win or out situation and the closing moments got no team was ever betten.

You gotta lot of them.

I mean, you gotta love the Cowboys.

They're the most exciting team in the NFL.

Like you pull it out, it's astonishing to me and I just wonder, like I feel like they're discounting the Eagles off too much and inflating the Cowboys defense too much.

To me, this feels like a bet on the Cowboys defense and that it improved and as much as anything else, And we don't know that yet.

All we know is that they did well against a Raiders team in Gino Smith, who, despite the fact we're going to back them this week against the Browns, has generally been a terrible, terrible quarterback this year.

So I can't.

I can't get there with the Cowboys, and I've sort of just been hoping this number keeps dropping so I can I can play the Eagles.

So let's let's put a pin in that one.

We're definitely going to talk about it.

And we're definitely playing a fire like we literally we've gone three and two two straight weeks, both times Eagles have been our third win.

So we've been rying them here for three straight weeks.

But like we keep seeing, the public keeps undervaluing them, and it might be happening against you.

Like you said, if it goes at two and a half, how could you avoid that number?

But that's a telltale sign, right the public loves offense.

That's true, It's wise time, just laying an egg.

Every week they're laying an egg.

Yeah.

And meanwhile, look at the Cowboys just did back through four touchdown passes.

He sent in records on Monday Night football.

That's when you won.

Fade a team.

Let's get to the primetime spotlight.

We got a Sunday night game.

We got a Monday night game.

We know people like to bet these standalone games.

Tampa Bay is visiting Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams are six and a half point favorites.

Another week where it's a relatively big number for Baker.

In the Bucks news from yesterday, Bucky Irving may may play this week.

Last week, Todd Bowles was pretty adamant he wasn't going to play.

In week eleven.

He was limited in practice three sessions.

Last week yesterday at Todd Bowles was a little bit more optimistic that he could play.

I tend to think a big reason why this Bucks team has been struggling.

You noted Baker scrambling, which I agree.

I also think there's a dynamic with Bucky Irving that we're just not seeing from this offense that changes it for them.

That started to become more and more clear the last few weeks when they've been struggling, Like the problem with the Bucks this past week wasn't their offense, it was their defense.

And Josh Allen, so isn't this number two big for the Rams?

Yeah?

And once again it's just I think I'm too close to where, like I think I should be on.

The Bucks like it was last week.

But everything's telling me, in my instinct wise to be on the Rams here.

And the more I dove into the numbers, the more I kind of played out that way that this is technically a Rams spot and the Rams actually played really well here.

You know, McVeigh shockingly.

After he plays divisional opponents gets his guys up for the following game, he's thirty four and seventeen straight up, thirty and seventeen and four against the spread in this exact spot after you plays divisional game where Baker on the flip side, he's not great in these nighttime games, which I always thought was true.

And like when I.

Look when I when I'm back and looked at it, it's like, Okay, how bad is Baker?

Especially I want to dive into him as a dog because that's what he is here.

So as a field goal underdog at night.

Baker one in eight straight up, oh and eight since he's joined the Tampa this Bucks team.

Him and Todd Bowles at night together, they're two and eight straight up so Bowls obviously, this isn't great in that games either.

Pretty shocking though that you know, Baker's had thirteen games he's played at prime time at night, He's two and eleven straight up, four and nine against the spreading those games.

So whatever it is.

Like Baker, we talk, we love him as a dog.

I was like, okay, their numbers at backup that he struggles with this game because I just can't believe how big the numbers.

Once again, it took a miracle for that Bills team to cover that number.

Like Baker put up his best fight, he put up a ton of points.

Now we both agree Rams defense is much better than the Bills defenses.

Right, they have not had anywhere near as bad as injury luck as that Bill's defense has had.

So yeah, it's six and a half.

I get why the pros are beat in this RAMS team.

I get why this numbers move.

So I'll go with the Prosser, I'll bet with the Rams, But I hate I hate going against Baker, but it just seems like he struggles in the spot.

Hate it.

Here's what's interesting.

Here's what's interesting.

The boxer playing Sunday night across the country.

They could lose to the Rams.

The next night across the country in northern California, Carolina Panthers are visiting the San Francisco forty nine ers.

They're seven point underdogs.

If the Bucks lose and the Panthers pull out another miracle, which tends to be their mo all of a sudden, the Panthers could be in first place in the NFC South.

And I cannot get to the Niners minus seven in this game because I think there are so many problems with their defensive backfield right now, and we're seeing it week after week after week.

Brock Perty coming back is great, that rush offense.

When Perty is there, Kittle is there, McCaffrey has more opportunities.

He does called the game differently, like he sees the defense differently.

He puts players in different position once they go into checks and audibles and things like that.

But then I'm talking about then Mac Jones.

I think the real difference here is Bryce Young scrambling stepping up in the pocket being accurate against the depleted Niners secondary.

I'm gonna have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.

I am too.

I just do not get this number.

It's another game.

I'm a want to dive into more.

Because we talked about it Sunday night.

I couldn't believe it.

I could not believe it again, the Panthers plus seven, I mean hard rock here has moved to the six and a half, which feels like it's the right line movement.

You know, how how do the Panthers and Bryce you Young handle him throwing for four hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns a week before, right, It's got to historically be a bad spot the following game.

It's just you can't duplicate that, and.

It's it's a weird spot for this team where, you know, since twenty eighteen, this Panthers team, when they're coming off a game where they scored thirty plus points, they're five and sixteen against the spread, I mean, just a disaster.

They're two and thirteen straight up and against the spread in their last fifteen times in this exact spot.

So we're basically betting like we did last week.

We need Bryce s youungk to be the difference.

We need him to be the superhero because the trends are just terrible for this Panthers team.

They just we always need that their defense is terrible.

They're not gonna be terrible.

Christian McCaffrey could run for a thousand yards in this game.

He could.

And what I keep going back to is just fading this foreigners team.

There's tons of trends we've been going on this year about fade them after their wins and just how bad they've been at home as well.

Like this, you know this year we've talked about a little bit, but you can go back to twenty twenty three.

They're eight and fifteen at home against the spread, eight and fifteen, Like they've just struggled and been overvalued by the market consistently.

So it's it's a not much a takeaway from them, the fact that they keep getting overvalued.

Shanahan is a six point favorite.

He usually wins those games.

I think he's nine and four straight up in this exact spot.

Is a big favorite.

But against the spread since twenty twenty three, I think it's since Christmas or right before it, he's three and nine against the spread, including zero to three in the spot where they are coming home as a favorite after a win.

So we keep talking about that stat since Christmas.

Basically, they win, they lose, they win, they lose.

It's one to fifteen now against the spread after a straight up win and a cover on the road.

So I don't know, Chad, it feels like it's too easy.

The public and the pros are with us on this one.

All the money, all of it is pointing in right now at almost every book on this Panthers team.

So I am happy to see the number moved.

If it didn't, Budge, I would have told us we got to avoid it.

But the fact that it's moved has given me some faith that we're on the right side.

I just I think the books aren't value brace Shung and how well he's played, and they keep under undervaluing him this year.

So we've been on the side with Bryce Freeze laid eggs.

We've been burned by him a couple of times this year.

But like you just said, defensively, this feels like.

A great match with the Panthers.

I don't know if they can stop the run, and they sure us all can't stop the past.

So if bray Sean brings his a game chat, I think we got a really great number here with Panthers.

I agree, I agree, it's going to be interesting.

We got I think we got about eight or nine games that we're we're feeling pretty good about or at least like somewhat from from good to very very very good.

Cincinnati good, Seattle very good, Detroit very good, Pittsburgh good, Arizona most excellent.

Las Vegas mooe, mooe, caliente.

Uh, Philadelphia, I don't know.

I don't know, rams Eh, Carolina good.

So we got some work to do between now and Thursday to get a little more intel.

We'll hear more about practices, injuries, things like that.

This has been sharp or Square part of the Value and Podcast Network.

We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on, plus our head to head battle brass Balls so much more.

Watcher listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.

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I Love you right now, it's time to take a step forward.

We gotta put something together, back to back.

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