Episode Transcript
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
This is Everybody's Business from Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 2I'm Max Chafkin, I'm Stacey Bennix Smith and Max.
Speaker 3I think the theme for this week is situationships.
Speaker 1I don't know where this is going, but.
Speaker 3Okay, situationships as in a relationship that's kind of messy, not entirely defined.
Speaker 2Source of a lot of drama.
Situationships.
Speaker 1All right, Stacey, I'm gonna work with you here because but because I think you're right a little bit like it does kind of describe our situation with tariffs right now.
Yes, maybe they're awesome, maybe they're not.
Maybe they're legal, maybe they're not.
We've got Joe Wisenthal of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, a friend of the pod here talking markets and tariffs.
Speaker 3Also, the Movie of the Summer is well, it's not in theaters, Max, it is on Netflix.
Speaker 2Movie of the Summer.
It's on Netflix.
Speaker 1I'm so excited about this.
I just want to say the title.
Speaker 2I know the great Sam Sanders is here to talk.
Go ahead.
Speaker 3K Pop Demon Hunter K Pop Demon Hunters.
Max is very into this movie, and we'll talk with.
Speaker 1Sam about it and Finally I'm told it's pumpkin spice latt sis.
And now I'm told the mayo is love the flavor.
It's everywhere.
Nothing is complicated about that one, right.
Speaker 3Stacy, Except most of the ingredients are imported, so tariffs are complicating our relationship with pumpkin spice lattes.
Speaker 2It's pumpkin spice tariff season now.
Speaker 3I think right now, in our economy, the ultimate situationship is between companies, workers and AI.
Speaker 1And we talked about this two weeks ago on the episode that Zitron, which people should check out a FA and listen to.
There's all this promise with AI.
We're all a lot of businesses are super excited about it.
They're investing sing billions in some cases.
Speaker 3Ten workers replaced by this technology in some cases right.
Speaker 1And and there's also the promise that it could create more jobs.
It's just it just feels like so much there is up in the air, and we really don't know anything yet except we're all spending tons of money on it.
Speaker 3Yes, well, and I think things are changing really fast, and everyone's like, is this going to take my job?
Speaker 2Is this going to help me do my job?
Speaker 3But I thought I would go to students because they are tend to be more comfortable with new technology on the cutting edge.
So too Columbia to NYU to kind of track down some students and ask them how they are using AI.
Speaker 2And here's what they said.
Do you guys use AI?
Yes, all the time, all the time, we're.
Speaker 3Actually AI students students, really yes?
Speaker 2What do you use it for?
Speaker 1Editing?
Speaker 2So like if you write a papers.
Speaker 4It could be like as simple as just like a text just to polish my language?
Speaker 2Or is it like some simple researchers.
Speaker 1I don't trust an AI on like super deep academic stuff yet.
Speaker 2And what about like with schoolwork?
Is it like a big helper.
I wouldn't say take AI with a grain.
Speaker 3Of salt, because they make mistakes just like humans do as well.
Speaker 2Always double check.
Speaker 1Honestly, it's basically the greatest cheat code for college.
Speaker 4Like I'm not even kidding.
Speaker 5I do know a few people who have used AI or chat GBT as kind of like a friend, like getting advice from I.
Speaker 6Agree, but I definitely think that other people might find more comfort in AI as a friend than what we might like to think.
Speaker 4I study actually in the field of public health.
Speaker 1I studied cancer and epidemiology.
Speaker 5We are actually working with AI, like studying and working with it.
Speaker 3With the rise of AI, like pretty much anything as possible.
Speaker 4Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1Yeah, Oh my god, oh god, I'm so worried for our future.
Really, the AI students, well are they are they ais or are they actual people?
Speaker 2What do you mean?
Speaker 1Well, I just got worried for a second that you had interviewed like a couple of chatbots.
Speaker 3There was a fact at chatbot in the mix there was one of the answers was a computer.
It was the one who said that AI was the best cheat code.
I asked chat gpt to come up with, like, it's like defensive AI was like if you were an a enthusiast, what would you say?
And you were students, So we said like, hey, it's the greatest cheat code.
I'm not even kidding.
And then I used to script the software program has AI voices that you can interject, and so I mixed that in.
Speaker 2But everybody else was real.
Everybody else was a real student.
Speaker 1Okay, A couple of things.
One is I'm glad at least one person said, uh, yeah, you can't trust it for everything, because.
Speaker 3Yes, yeah, she was one of the AID students.
Speaker 1Yeah, well that makes sense because she's actually an expert.
And the funniest thing about being an AI hater is that the biggest AI haters are AI experts in many cases because they're the ones who actually understand the limitations of these techologies, whereas like people who are just like you know, dipping in and out.
I don't know, in some cases they're using it in dangerous ways, like trying to trick their co host into misidentifying.
Speaker 3I think I was doing that for illustrative purposes, not at.
Speaker 1For gas malented.
Speaker 2No, there was no mal intent.
Speaker 3I was just kind of showing you that if that voice had been like ten percent better, I don't think you would have picked it up.
Speaker 1No, Yeah, I don't know.
It's super interesting.
Like I do think that the in terms of these questions of new technology, they are probably like two categories that are worth looking at, Like one is pornography because that's where all new technologies seem to start, and the other are the are the youngs who are using AI.
Speaker 3Well, I chose to go with the youngs for this episode.
Speaker 2Because we are a family podcast.
Speaker 1Max.
Speaker 2You do what you need to do for research, Max, without a doubt.
Speaker 3The situationship I believe is dominating our economy right now, at least this week, is terriff.
Speaker 1I hate the word, but you're right, that is what this is.
Speaker 2And I felt like it was.
Speaker 3Really worth exploring this because I looked into this and since Liberation Day, the tariffs have been like postponed, paused, modified, you know, enacted, reacted more than a hundred times.
Speaker 2It has been so much back and forth, a.
Speaker 1Lot of defining the relationship going on.
Speaker 3A lot of like DTR talks that just seemed to be going nowhere, and in the latest twist, there's a big question about their legality.
So Trump used something called AIPA to pass the tariffs.
That's the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
It was in place in nineteen seventy seven, and it essentially because normally Congress has to okay the tariffs, this gives the president like an emergency power to override Congress and just make it happen.
Speaker 1Yeah, and og listeners of everybody's business will remember that we talked about this when a lower court initially invalidated this basically said no, that Trump is sort of abusing this law.
He doesn't have all the power that he says he has to to do these Liberation Day tariffs.
Speaker 3Right, He's claiming the trade deficit is the emergency, and so our trade deficit with all these countries is an emergency.
The Supreme Court is now going to be hearing this case and Trump has asked to.
Speaker 2Fast track it.
Speaker 3But if it doesn't happen, it would mean all the tariffs were invalidated and the US would have to refund the money it's collected so far.
Speaker 2It would be a mess.
It was very complicated.
Speaker 3We decided we would bring in someone to help us kind of navigate, like why the markets are reacting to this as they are.
Speaker 1Yeah, we walked all the way over to the other side journey of the floor where ours are, and found Joe Wisen's.
Speaker 2All Leaping over Desks.
Speaker 1Odd Lots podcast, which is awesome if you don't listen to it.
Joe is like one of the smartest, one of the most entertaining people on markets.
UH agreed we could find and.
Speaker 3Here he is in the studio with us.
Joe Wisenthal, a co host of Odd Loots.
Speaker 2Welcome, Joe, Hi, thank you for having me.
Well, we're very excited to have you here.
Speaker 3Especially since we are a confused Max and I are confused right now and we're hoping you can clear this up.
Speaker 2So, when tariffs were first put.
Speaker 3In place, I think it's fair to say that some people liked them, some people hated them.
Speaker 2The markets did not like them.
Speaker 3Sure correct, Now that they their legality is being questioned, it seems like the markets do not like the idea of the tariffs going away.
Speaker 1Yeah, And amid this like ruling, Trump got up at a podium and the market was going down, and he said, he said this, let's just listen, and.
Speaker 7Now it's going to the Supreme Court and we're going to ask for expedited and expedited ruling because you know, when you look at the stock markets down today, the stock market's down because of that, because the stock market needs the tariffs.
Speaker 1They want the tariffs.
Like I'm listened to that, Yeah, and I was like, Okay, Trump's probably just saying that because he likes the tariffs.
But like it made me wonder, is there any truth to that?
Does the stock market we can talk about the bomb market too, Do the markets like the tariffs?
And is there any aspect to this?
Is that he's right about.
Speaker 6I will try to maybe make the strongest defense of that claim, which is there probably is some truth to the idea that policy uncertainty is not great for the market, and this would clearly reinject I guess.
I suppose policy uncertainty on the volatility of the tariff policy is probably narrower than it was back in early April, although there still seems to be changes every day.
So I guess the idea that the tariffs could be pulled out the rug from the whole thing, I would not entirely.
I suppose discount the possibility that investors aren't crazy about that.
I don't really believe it directly.
I mean, the thing is, this market is driven by a handful of gigantic tech companies, and it's mostly an AI story at this point, and that is an industry in space that largely is unaffected by the tariffs.
So the market is up a lot since early April, in part because there's been some walk back from the Liberation Day levels, and also because nothing has derailed the AI story.
Now, there's one other element that could be interesting, which is that there is quite a bit of revenue coming into the federal government thanks to the tariffs.
Yes, one of the anxieties in markets is what's been happening at the long end of developed market yield curves and sort of bond yields blowing out.
If there is some perception that, okay, deficits are already very wide and one of the few sources of growing revenue is going to suddenly disappear, maybe there could be something where people get more concerned about the fiscal equilibrium and that having an effect.
That was kind of the story on Tuesday.
Like how far I would take that, I'm not sure, but I suppose I wouldn't completely say this is not a factor.
Speaker 3I mean, beyond just the uncertainty which markets notoriously do not like.
It also seems like if for some reason the tariffs are declared illegal, this is just gonna be a mess because everybody would have to get their money back.
I can imagine this could sue the government for like lost business or increased costs.
I mean, it seems like as much as you might dislike the tariffs, as much as someone might dislike the tariffs, doing away with the tariffs is a mess.
Speaker 6Yeah, it would be a mess.
I mean, there's sort of two things going on at once.
Here that are both very interesting.
I think longer term economists would say, look, even if it's messy in the short term, tariffs are bad tariffs creating efficiencies, They create all kinds of problems.
They create divisions between trading partners and allies that make it hard to plan.
There are all kinds of issues that tariffs raised, and they would probably say, look, yeah, maybe it'd be a mess in the short term to dial them back, but does not compare to the mess the tariff's introduced, So.
Speaker 2Better to like wade through the mess.
Speaker 6Yes, And I mean I think most economists would say, let please get rid of them now.
The one complication I would say here is that I would say that there is a perception in the United States right now that we have this dysfunctional public sector and decisions essentially can't get made.
Things can't get built, legislation can't get past, et cetera.
This is because of the sort of very diffuse nature of democracy, where there are a lot of veto points, et cetera, and a lot of people aren't crazy about how many veto points there are in American democracy, whether at the court level or the local level, et cetera.
How hard it is to build things, et cetera.
There's this frustration of stagnancy in the built environment and in the policy environment.
And perhaps someone would say, well, if the Supreme Court undermines the Trump tariffs, this just confirms the fact that nothing can get done in America.
We can't set a new chart, a new policy course.
Speaker 5Now.
Speaker 6Again, like the ability to tariff is something that is theoretically in the Congress of purview and theoretically should only be used by the White House in emergency situations.
The congressation in.
Speaker 3Fact invoked those emergency situations.
But like for all the countries in the world.
Speaker 6And Congress has not stood up for itself.
So if Trump is sort of usurping this power that belongs to Congress, it's not like Congress has really complained, or certainly the Republican leaders of Congress.
Nonetheless, I suppose if the Supreme Court were to rule the tariffs and valid the money was no longer be connected.
It may feed into this idea that the American sort of presidential three system of power.
Speaker 4It's difficult.
Speaker 1Well, there's also the risk branch.
When we're talking about INSERTNTY.
I was just trying to think Okay, Well, what is the incertainty, because if they invalidated the tariffs, then like, I don't know, it seems pretty certain we don't we don't know those tariffs.
But it seems like part of the risk is that Trump would somehow to ignore the Supreme Court or do some other additional thing that would further create a sense of uncertainty.
Speaker 6And well, we're in a very weird situation right now with a TikTok band where there does not seem to be any legal basis whatsoever for TikTok to exist on the app stores in the United States.
That law has not been repealed at all, but the White House uniletter I said, I'm just going to not ignore it.
We're just not going to pay attention to the lower can enforce it.
But that's a very weird situation, Like, right, why it's so it is it is illegal by the law, and yet no one is enforcing the ban for better or worse.
But that what if the Supreme Court said no tariffs can no longer be collected and the White House instructed the ports to keep collecting the tariffs.
I mean, this is potentially it's a very weird situations here.
Speaker 3I mean also, if you're running a business and you're trying to figure out what to do, and you're like, okay, should we if the tariffs are locked in, it would be better for us to build a factory and start making things here, or invest in iron mine or whatever it is.
But it's just hard to know if it's going to get overturned or if it's going to go away with the next president.
It's like where do you invest your money?
You can't really grow and expand the way you could if you had like a clear course totally.
Speaker 6So this is a really important dimension, which is that the longer these tariffs exist in any form, the more likely it is that they will exist forever.
Because once you start getting any company that is making domestic investments predicated on the existence of tariffs, that company is a perpetual lobbyist for the existence of.
Speaker 1A lobbyist, but like a lobbyist with a pretty good case to make.
We should talk about the bomb market a little bit, because, like what Joe said about the stock market is true, like the stock market has done really well during the Trump presidency, but it could just be a comment on like in Vidia and maybe maybe in fact if if there weren't tariffs to.
Speaker 6Video, but we know that a huge amount of it is attributable to these companies.
Speaker 1Anyway, keep going, yeah, yeah, So anyway, I was just that's a segue for stations.
Speaker 3So since the tariff conundrum happened, since it seems like the legalities come into question in a serious way, the bond market has reacted in this way where like yields have gone up, in other words, kind of interest rates have gone up.
The US is perceived to be a riskier place to put your money.
Speaker 2Yes, so what is going on?
Speaker 6I guess one way to think about this question, and it gets back to I think you really have to talk politics, and you really have to talk about this idea of whether you feel that over the next several years we will still even have a nominally or truly independent central bank that can set rates at will or set rates sort of independent of the political cycle, regardless of who is in the White House.
And so if you're going to put your money in the US for a long time, if you're going to lock up your money for a long time, you probably would like that the central bank to feel.
You would like that confidence that the central bank will do at its job to preserve the value of your currency, avoid high inflation, if you are worried about the political status of the central bank, if you're worried that an entity will no longer exist that is committed to doing getting to two percent inflation sort of whatever the cost because of something upstream in the political cycle, et cetera.
I don't know, maybe you want a little bit more compensation in your long term holdings to compensate you for this risk.
Speaker 1Well wait, that doesn't really have anything to do with Liberation Day though, or like the tariffs, I mean.
Speaker 6Or it doesn't really you're no, no, it's totally true.
So it only has anything to do with it in so far as all of this is a commentary on US political stability.
Speaker 1Well totally.
Like if you're if you're lending money to the US government, you're like, okay, I like the most of those people like the global financial system as it exists today, Like the US is like integrated, this like incredibly successful experiment in politics and capitalism that played out starting after World War Two.
Yeah, and if Trump is blowing that up, that makes you nervous.
I think that's what it is.
Speaker 6Yeah, I think that's right, And all of these things are just sort of novelties within the American political system.
Right, say the Supreme Court were to say tariffs are illegal, I mean broad based.
First of all, the broad based tariffs on these emergency claims, that's a novelty.
The idea of the Supreme Court, then reversing tariffs, that's a novelty.
A potential dispute between the White House and the judicial branch, that's a novelty.
All of these things, right, that we sort of took for granted, certain institutional arrangements.
And this is where I get back to the FED itself.
The way I think about the FED is it's been encased in glass, right, and it sort of let operate to do its own thing.
Speaker 2And the independence is like a little glass.
Speaker 6But it could get shattered, and maybe it will get shattered at some point, or maybe it already has been shattered or at least cracked, based on the fact that's already coming under a lot of criticism.
So a lot of institutional arrangements which had been perceived to be stable are perceived to be less stable.
And once again, the FED is part of that and could have a factor in the degree of the payment that you want in order to keep your money in dollars long term.
Speaker 1And just to bring it back to this initial question, like treasury yields went up yesterday, which again kind of feeds Trump's idea that like, yeah, we need those terrifts market, and what you're saying is this is another the story is kind of the same.
It's an uncertain it's a certainty versus.
Speaker 6So I think part of this too, you know where it's really bad is in the UK right now that it's getting a lot of attention is how much they're buying.
Yields are blowing out at the long end, but it's really it's Japan too, and they're you know, for them long term rates like one point eight percent, which is very low, but it's Japan, so for them that's very high by their grand standard of things.
But there is this concern I would say two concerns at least in maybe three concerns within rich developed countries, which is that they have unfavorable demographics, that they have aging populations that are going to require a lot of resources that and a lot of that will soak up and burden a lot of the productive labor.
Two, some combination of this burden of the aging population and then other sort of the hollowing out of industrial activity specifically because of competition with China.
Is this fear that the productive base of rich Western or you know, sort of rich liberal countries is going to get hollowed out, et cetera.
And then finally add on to these things this sort of evident political dysfunction which kind of exists everywhere.
I mean, we see it.
I think people perceive political volatility in the US the certainly you look at the UK and also doesn't look like they can get anything done.
They're always having these very piaun scandals that seem to be at the cover of the paper.
But everywhere you look there's similar things going on.
There's these sort of stresses that are being put on the sort of political arrangements.
So you combine all these three things together and there's sort of this global story going on that is beyond just the question of tariff revenue.
Speaker 3So Joe, little known fact, well maybe not that little known, but you are in a band that's right called Seek Crewure, and I had a musical questions for you because this is so weird.
Speaker 2Max is going to die, But It's the first thing that came into my.
Speaker 3Head when I read about the illegal possibly illegal tariffs, which is that song by the Clash, like do I stay or do I go?
Speaker 2Oh yeah Gray so hun Because it seems like with the tariffs, this is the case like if they stay in place.
Speaker 3There's going to be trouble.
If they go away, do it'll be double.
Speaker 6I love the setup that.
Speaker 8Was thank you.
Speaker 3It's a really long setup, no, but it putt I appreciate you rolling with it.
Speaker 6I think there are a lot of things like that these days, where we sort of arrive at these forks in the road and we'd sort of want them to never be resultd because neither of the resolutions seem great.
I mean, I think about this with AI.
Do we want the AI bubble to burst or do we want AI to take all our jobs?
I'm not sure at this point.
I think with tariffs, I look, I have no I'm a journalist.
I have no opinion on tariffs.
I just I just report the news and usually I just ask the questions.
Rarely am I answered.
Then yes, all of these things are very strange, and I don't you know, from a sort of when you balance out economics with sort of institutional stability, et cetera.
I think there's this feeling that we're hurtling towards genuinely uncharted territory.
Speaker 1I feel like that clash song is how investors feel about everything, not just yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2I feel like it also works with the AI bubble too.
Speaker 3I mean, do we want things to keep going and get super overheated?
Speaker 9No?
Speaker 2Do we want the bubble to burst?
Speaker 1No?
Speaker 6Yeah, I gotta return, not soon.
Speaker 1But Joe Wisenthal, thanks for being here.
Speaker 6Thanks for having me.
That was a lot of fun.
Speaker 1Shoot, I still shoot I go.
Speaker 4If you say that you on my.
Speaker 1I'll be tilly end no time, Stacy.
Have you seen Kpop Demon Hunters?
Speaker 2Okay, yes, this is this movie on Netflix.
It's this huge hit.
I had not watched it until.
Speaker 3Last night when you your enthusiasm about this topic encouraged me to watch it and.
Speaker 2I really liked it.
Speaker 1All right, So listeners to this show know that I have three children.
My oldest is ten.
I think this movie, I think snuck up on everyone who isn't ten years old.
It is on Netflix.
Came out almost three months ago, maybe two and a half months ago.
It is on track to be the most watched or maybe it already is the most watched film on Netflix two hundred and sixty six million views.
Speaker 2Definitely the movie of the summer as we're recording it.
Speaker 1Yeah, and it is the movie the Summer, I think, which is weird because there have been a couple other big Netflix movies before, big streaming things before, but I don't think they've ever quite broken out culturally in the way that this one has.
And again it's not just Netflix.
If you pull up Spotify their global one hundred list of top songs, you got what it sounds like, which is number nine.
This is a musical, by the way, how It's done, number six, your idol number five, Soda Pop number four.
Speaker 2And these gold bangs.
Speaker 1So this gold is a banger.
It is like the hottest song right now.
Speaker 2It's on my exercising mix.
Speaker 1This movie is gonna make a fortune, and we have a great person to talk about it.
Sam Sanders is here.
He is host of the Sam Sanders Show, which you should subscribe to if you don't.
Just a really smart cultural commentator.
Sam, How you.
Speaker 4Doing, I'm good, y'all.
Speaker 5Finally got me to watch K pop Demon Hunters, which had been on my list, and let me tell you, I was dancing in the living room with the dog last night.
Speaker 4It's really cute and it's really fun.
Speaker 1All right, So Stacy, you wanted to just kind of quickly summarize the premise here.
I mean, it's basically in the title they're K pop stars and they hunt demons.
It's like Nake's on a plane level, like obvious.
Well, okay, so there is a band.
Speaker 3It's three women and they are like born like demon slayers and they slay the demons of the world with their voices, which creates some kind of a network that slays demons anyway.
But that is also an evil boy band made up of like five very handsome men who are singing for evil.
Speaker 1They're demons too.
It's an animated film.
It's a musical, and it came out, like I said, like back in June, and I think it's snuck up on a lot of people.
It's snuck up on me for sure.
Like I only really became aware of it over the last week when I was on vacation and my children watched it like seven times in a row.
But like, I'm kind of curious when you started to kind of hear chatter about this, like when you became aware that this was going to be a phenomenon, that you were going to be talking about this, you know, in a professional capacity.
Speaker 5At some point, the songs kind of crept into my algorithm.
I used Spotify mostly for streaming, and all of a sudden, Golden began to show up.
And for the longest time, I just said, Oh, that's some new K pop band.
They always got a new one over there in K pop world.
Then I realized, oh, this is from a movie.
Then I googled a movie and I'm like, oh, it's a massive, massive hit.
Speaker 4It really surprised everybody.
Speaker 5It surprised Sony, it surprised Netflix, and I think that says a lot about how most executives in the entertainment industry actually.
Speaker 4Don't know anything.
They don't know anything.
Speaker 1Yeah, I'm this movie.
I didn't know this going into taping this, but like I guess, animated movies are really expensive to make.
This movie costs one hundred million dollars to make.
Oh wow, I've read that like it is gonna be a billion dollar movie, and that's a big deal because it didn't have a theatrical release.
Sam like people who don't pay attention to this business, like how do you get to a billion dollars or a big number for a movie that like I can go on Netflix and stream for free, My kids are streaming for free NonStop, Like where is the money in something like this?
Speaker 4For Netflix?
Speaker 5It's fuzzy math and they'll never tell us everything.
The biggest shift between watching movie and TV viewing go to streamers as opposed to being in networks back in the day and the movie theaters.
Back in the day, we had really distinct measures of how shows and movies did.
There were Nielsen ratings that told you that Seinfeld had thirty five million viewers a week and box office numbers that said this movie made one hundred million dollars this weekend.
Netflix hides a bunch of that data, but what they're hoping is that this movie being so popular keeps people coming back and subscribe, and those subscriber fees will help their bottom line.
There's also an ad tier of Netflix now that exists, but most people I know don't use it.
So all this to say, whatever hard number they give you about this movie, it's less about that and more about winning the conversation.
Speaker 4And being seen as the biggest, baddest, best stream.
Speaker 1The subscription fees I mean is the short answer, Like people like this and they keep subscribing to Netflix, or they don't subscribe and they resubscribe because they got to watch K pop demon Hunters.
Speaker 3I want to jump in here and ask you about something you said earlier, Sam, which is that nobody knows anything, which I think is really interesting.
I mean, the summer movie of the summer has always been this big deal, this big deal in business too nobody hit it right next Netflix seems to have accidentally hit it right, Like, what's going on here?
Why does nobody know nothing?
Speaker 2Right now?
Speaker 5I will So there's a few things going on we are seeing movie going in general.
Speaker 4Just go down.
Speaker 5There used to be a time in our youth where on the weekends you would go to the movies even if there wasn't a movie that you really wanted to go watch.
Speaker 2Well, Barbie Heimer happens.
Not that long ago.
Speaker 4There was the those of you in far between.
Speaker 5Yeah, there are very few monoculture moments and movies anymore, and only about twelve percent of Americans now go to the movies at least once a month, and about a quarter of Americans don't go to the movies at all.
Speaker 1Wow.
Speaker 5In the midst of this, these studios rely a lot more on IP like Barbie and other things that folks already know and will go see.
And so if you look at the biggest performing movies of this year so far, it's all existing IP, How to Train Your Dragon, Fantastic Four, Jurassic World, Superman, the Lelo and Stitch sequel.
Speaker 4So movie going.
Speaker 5Is going down, which means that movie studios rely on old names that we all know, which means that a movie like K Pop Demon Hunters, they don't know what to do with it because it's new, and they're afraid to take that chance and put it in theaters.
So there's also a really weird story about the way that Sony and Netflix made the deal that put this film on Netflix and not.
Speaker 1Any sam You want to just explain that.
Speaker 5Yeah, So, as I mentioned on top of Americans just going to movies less, the pandemic and that era of lockdown really decimated movie theaters for a while.
They're still bouncing back, but they're not back to what they were pre COVID, and they might never get there.
Speaker 4If I'm being honest.
Speaker 5However, during that lockdown moment, a lot of movie studios said, what can we do to keep making movies and not close our businesses and not lay off all of our staff.
Sony ink to deal with Netflix during lockdown that basically said we'll make movies, but we know they can't go to theaters, so we'll sell movies at a flat rate to Netflix that will then stream these movies on their platform and then they'll get all the rights.
So K Pop Demon Hunters was a part of this deal, which meant that even though Sony made the movie, they were paid twenty million dollars for it, and Netflix got all the rights and the benefits from having this big.
Speaker 1Hit well the and Netflix paid to make it to paid one hundred million bucks to make it, and then another twenty Yeah on top of that, that was the flat fee part to Sony.
Speaker 5Yeah, yes, yes, but that means that Sony will see no upside from this movie.
And even when Netflix put K Pop Demon Hunters in theaters for one weekend for a special sing along edition of this film, Sony the movie studio saw none of that money.
Speaker 4WHOA to Netflix?
Speaker 1You know, there's been this debate in Hollywood, I think over over some period of time, Sam and I know you're probably familiar with this, but like we have traditional Hollywood, including a lot of like filmmakers and so on, who feel like theaters are really important.
Theatrical releases are really important.
There's like a kind of cultural reason for that, which is like they feel like that's what a movie should be.
But there's also like a marketing argument, which is that theaters are how you create like cultural moments, like you can't have a movie of the Summer without a theatr.
Speaker 3Yeah, the producers of Crazy Rich Asians turned down more money from Netflix because the theatrical release was so important to them.
Speaker 1And Netflix has been kind of like the one saying no, no, no, you don't need this.
So so Ted Sarandos is the CEO of Netflix at the time one hundred Summit in April, which that's funny.
I don't know what that is, but it's an event in April held by Time magazine, and he was asked about theaters.
Just listen to what he said.
Speaker 5Folks grew up thinking I want to make movies on a gigantic screen and have strangers watch them and play for the the in the theaters for two months and people cry and sold out shows.
Speaker 4It just doesn't happen very much outdated.
Speaker 1So I'm kind of curious Sam, if you agree with that, or if there's anything to what he's saying, and if K Pop demon Hunters maybe helps make make the point, because they did create a cultural moment in a kind of an interesting and maybe arguably new way.
Speaker 8Yeah.
Speaker 5I mean, I talk a lot about the ways in which Americans are just not going to the movies like they used to.
Speaker 4It kind of makes me sad.
I love movies.
Speaker 5I actually think that movie going does a lot for social and cultural adhesion.
Speaker 4Like it is a community experience.
Speaker 5There are few feelings better than watching a really good movie in a theater and then talking to the stranger next to you about how it was afterwards.
Speaker 4I think it's good for like society.
Speaker 5So I'm sad that we don't go as much, But I think that the trend lines are just inevitable.
I tell folks a lot.
I compare movie going right now to opera going.
There was a time in Western culture where opera was the most popular thing ever, and on the weekend you went to the opera and at night for a date.
Speaker 4You went to the opera, and everyone went to the opera.
Speaker 5Right, Opera doesn't not exist now, it still exists.
There are people who sing opera and make money doing opera, but it's not nearly as dominant as a cultural force.
I think movie going in the classical sense at the movie theater is going the way of opera.
Speaker 3We're all just going like people in like over dressed old people coming out of movie theaters.
Speaker 2Yeah, well, am I going to be one of these people?
Speaker 1Do you buy the marketing argument?
Everything you're saying could be true, But opera or some movie releases that are not necessarily big moneymakers could be events that like allow a project to gather enthusiasm or excitement or whatever.
I think there have been a lot of people arguing this is a way to signal to people, like this is a thing you need to see, this is a big deal, like any of that.
But you think that could also go away.
Speaker 4When is the last time that happened?
Speaker 1Probably it's like Barbieaks.
Speaker 4The last several years.
Speaker 5But like those were things where Christopher Nolan as a director is as close to existing ip as you can get in a human being, and Barbie is a brand that we've all known for decades.
I really think that as movie goes the way of opera, the own things that will work and become cultural moments or things that were already a cultural moment.
Speaker 1Before we let you go, Sam, I wanted to ask you about kind of like what happens next.
I mean we were talking about the money earlier, like some of the money's gonna be in sequels, right, there hasn't actually been a ton of mercery.
Speaker 2I've not seen the last of Kop Team.
Speaker 1And because this took people by surprise, like they didn't have enough time to like, oh really, there's some a little bit, but not as much as you would normally have for something like this, they're gonna be sequels.
I'm kind of curious, Sam, what you think the lessons are, I mean beyond just like we're gonna see I'm sure copycat type stuff.
What are people in entertainment?
How are the smart ones thinking about this?
What are they gonna learn from this?
Speaker 5Like, I mean, there has been a decade plus of movie studios relying a lot on existing ip to make their money, so big brands that you already know and love, sequel after sequel after sequel, But all the trend lines say that this won't last forever.
Most of the time, when you extract all these sequels from ongoing IP, it's diminishing returns with each sequel.
That's happening with the biggest franchises is in Hollywood, and so Hollywood's about to face a problem.
They actually need new IP.
And you know what K Pop Demon Hunters is, It's new IP.
So I think the lesson here for all of Hollywood and all these executives is that they're gonna have to start taking chances again because the trough they're feeding from is eventually going to run dry.
How many Jurassic World movies can we put up with?
Speaker 4Stacy?
Speaker 3Don't ask that how many questions, Sam, because they answer could be a lot.
Speaker 1Sam Sanders, thank you for being here.
Speaker 2Thanks Sam.
Speaker 4To everyone listening.
It's good for America.
Go to the movies.
Speaker 3Yes, Please go to the movie Yes co sign and be sure to check out Sam Show, The Sam Sanders Show.
I just listened to their year interviews so far episode.
It's great checking.
Speaker 9Out all right, Stacey, Max, I have a confession to make and I feel like this makes me almost like anti American, like what.
Speaker 1I hope I don't get deported for saying this, but I am not a big fan of like a pumpkin spice coffee, and I feel like that is one of the institutions of this.
It's as American as apple pie and baby.
Speaker 6Well.
Speaker 3I have something to admit as well, which is I've never actually had a pumpkin spice latte.
Speaker 1We're gonna do this whole segment without actually trying one.
That's that seems harsh, but you have an underrated story and it pertains this.
Speaker 3Yes, in fact, so pumpkin spic season has launched its official and it is an economic force.
The pumpkin spice, which is apparently like cinnamon, nutmeg clothes little mix.
Apparently, visits to Starbucks go up by twenty four percent in pumpkin spicison.
Speaker 2People love this mix.
Speaker 3Apparently you and I are just in the extreme minority of non pumpkin spice.
Speaker 1But also, pumpkin spice is also what you need if you're making a pumpkin pie, right or sweet potato pie.
I love, which is a delicious thing.
Yes, so it can't just be.
Speaker 3I like my coffee to taste like coffee.
I'm a purist.
Speaker 1I'm just glad that Starbucks has something to look forward to, because you know, we were talking the other day about the challenges that they've had.
But yes, pumpkin spice season, this is going to be great for them.
Speaker 2Well it is and it isn't.
Speaker 3So Starbucks is possibly now in a situationship with the pumpkin spice latte because not only are coffee prices up like fifteen percent over last year, which is enormous for a number of reasons, but all the spices in the pumpkin spice latte are imported, and so those are all being.
Speaker 2Affected by tariffs.
Speaker 3And the pumpkin spice latte since two thousand and five when it started being the price started being tracked, is up by almost seventy percent.
Speaker 1Okay, wait wait, break that down for us.
So how much did it cost back in.
Speaker 2Uh, three dollars in thirty five cents?
Speaker 1Okay, now it is.
Speaker 3It's like around seven dollars and fifty cents eight bucks.
Speaker 1And that's before these tariffs kicked in.
Speaker 3Well, the tariffs may have slightly kicked in.
I don't know if Starbucks has been stockpiling pumpkin spices.
One can only imagine that when they saw this coming, they were like, you know, it's a very important thing.
But you know, if these tariffs get locked into place, all these spices, cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, like, we do not grow them in the US.
Speaker 1So they're mostly coming from Asia.
Speaker 3I think, yes, India and Indonesia, and like the places where the spices come from are all being hit by tariffs.
Speaker 1I find it funny there's so much political discourse right now where you have sort of like Democrats saying these tariffs are are really bad and Republicans say, no, they're not bad, and it's like, well, we don't really have to argue about it.
You can just look at the prices of certain goods and like they're going up, I mean, and you can sort of debate whether or not that's a big price increase with that's like a politically a problem, Like there are a bunch of debates you can have about it, but like the prices don't really.
Speaker 3Lie unless you think Max that coffee is the only thing on the line here.
I would just like to pose it that pumpkin spice has now infiltrated almost every corner of consumer culture.
There is pumpkin spice, cup of noodles.
Oh god, there is pumpkin spice spam.
There are pumpkin spice, doritos, slurpies, hummus, ramen, pringles, cough drops, my personal favorite, cat litter.
There's poppins spice, cat litter.
It's everywhere, everywhere.
I mean, imagine the pumpkin spice inflation alone.
The economic impact is going to reverberate earthquake style.
Speaker 1Through the we had.
If we had like Scott Bessen here, he would say, look, the President is just trying to reorient the US economy away from pumpkin spice, and I would say, amen to that.
Speaker 3You're all for it.
You're not going to start drinking pumpkins, spice, lattes.
Speaker 1Or cat litter.
All right, Stacey, Before we go, I gotta just read some of the emails.
We got to the A I think I met.
Speaker 2We got a lot this one we should say.
This show was we had.
Speaker 1On Exitron noted Ai Hater, really awesome conversation about mentioned it at the top of about sort of the ways in which, no matter how excited you are about this stuff, there are there seem to be some real economic.
Speaker 2It's possibly very overvalued in a way that could crash the lot.
Speaker 1I gotta tell you, Stacey, we got some some haters listening to this show.
So Rick wrote in complaining that I don't use it unless it's forced upon me.
Take that college students complaining essentially about the electricity, the water usage, and like the fact that as a consumer you don't always get value.
Talking about customer service phones being converted over to AI.
He complained about doctor's offices, which actually came up in another note from another correspondent I think his name is Yoshin, but wrote in complaining about basically having his doctor's office put him in touch with like an AI agent and that feeling really interesting, Haley Icky.
I mean, the most interesting note we got was a sort of lengthy one from Josh, who is by his account anyway, a Carnegie Mellon trained machine learning engineer, and he's basically saying like Although he wrote, well, I don't always agree with Ed's approach to arguing against the current hysteria gripping markets around AI, he's right about the fundamental disconnect between hype and reality.
I don't see this to mean that there's no utility in LMS.
There are clearly are narrow applications where they provide value.
However, the ROI is highly suspect given the capital required to produce what will likely remember as the twenty first century lies.
Now, I had to.
Speaker 3Twenty first century Eliza look as in like Eliza Doolittle.
Speaker 1No, Eliza was a a like very early chatbot from like the nineteen sixties.
Okay, and I had to I had to google that, But I mean again, it didn't I was.
Speaker 2All in my fair lady, I was, you know.
Speaker 1But anyway, awesome emails all around on this topic, like keep them coming.
I think we really liked that conversation.
In particular.
We're gonna, as we said on the other one, we're going to try to keep coming back to this topic.
So so keep sending us ideas examples.
Let us know what you thought of K pop demon Hunters, what it could tell you about what we can learn from Hollywood.
That's everybody's at Bloomberg dot net.
Everybody's with an ass at Bloomberg dot net.
Speaker 2Do you still consider yourself an AI skeptic?
Speaker 1I feel like everyone should be an AI skeptic, especially if you're a journalist.
Like journalists by nature are supposed to be skeptical of everything.
I try not to use AI because I think it's going to actually make me a worse writer, and I think that everyone is kind of melting their brains a little bit.
Speaker 2Well, you wouldn't want us to put it on the show or give it a job on the show.
Definitely not what we should probably do.
The credits.
Speaker 1This show is produced by Stacy Wong.
Speaker 3Magnus Henrickson is our supervising producer and Amy Keen is our editor.
Speaker 8We get engineering from Blake Maples and Dave Purcell.
Speaker 6Fact checks Sage baumanheads Bloomberg Podcasts.
Speaker 4Special thanks to Jeff Muscus, Julia Rubin and Maria.
Speaker 1Ling, who are these voices.
If you have a minute, please rate and review the show.
Speaker 4It means a lot to us.
Speaker 1If you do, Max will drink a Venti Pumpkin spice latte during next week's show.
This will be enforced.
Speaker 8And if you have a story that should be our business, email us at everybody sat Bloomberg dot net.
That's everybody with an S said Bloomberg dot net.
Thank you for listening.
See you next week.
Speaker 2Resistance is feudal max check you will be assimilated except your fate.
Speaker 3I would like to to think, uh, the descript AI generated voices that contributed to this, including Owen and Grace, they contributed to them.
Speaker 1They're not voices, they're just mathematical models.
It's an auto computer.
Speaker 3You have to drink of spice latte if somebody reviews the show, so that's that's interesting.