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Welcome to the Marine Dogs Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what is driving them.

I'm Marin's Umset, Web editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.

I'm joined Stay Big, senior reporter and author of the Money to Steal newsletter.

John, We're going to go on holiday soon, don't we, thank the Lord?

I know, finally times.

So before we head off to you know, rainy Scottish Islands and that kind of mark, we're going to talk about the thing that we know our listeners are mainly interested.

Yes, it's harsh pressers, honey.

He wrote about house pressures this week, John, I not going that well, is it?

It was?

You look at it right?

Do you want them to go up?

Do you want them to go down?

It was interesting because this week rate Move Chemo and rate Move does asking placy and I've got them.

I usually I can't help but take that way a pinch of salt because obviously it's very early data.

It's also fueled off people's kind of anchoring bias, and it's always the first prices you don't get the newly listed ones that have had price reductions included.

But so if you look at the trend, although the asking prices are obviously a lot higher than the achieved prices, the direction of travel is usually basically the same as nationwide or the O n S or any other house price index.

So in this case, it was the biggest July fall on record, because asking prices usually fall in July because it's just a seasonal thing, but this was the biggest amount they'd fallen in the month.

And also meant what was the number, I think it was one point eight percent, Okay, so it.

Sounds very little bit annualized that and you've got a real number.

Yeah, you basically annualized, be annualized obviously, but also the annual rate of growth is down to point one percent, So basically prices being flat.

Inflation, I've inflation.

And the interesting thing about it, I guess, is that activity in the market is basically normal.

In twenty twenty two, when interest rates went up, we had a big crash in transactions, but prices kind of just trickled down a bit, whereas now transactions are basically back to normal, but prices aren't going anywhere.

So it feels as if maybe just the market's waking up to the fact that well, actually interest rates are a lot higher.

People can't afford to pay what you might have wanted, don't we pay, And we're just getting that gradual adjustment.

And prices have actually fallen quite a lot in central London, right, Yeah, we keep hearing about particuarly at the top end price is way off.

I mean, it's hard to get precise numbers on this, but when you talk to people about premium properties, I'll tell you that prices are down twenty percent plus.

And also that they haven't moved since like twenty fourteen or something like that.

I mean, it really is.

I don't think this is even a particily controversial or surprising thing you say anymore, because I've heard it so much.

I even so.

Or somebody putting out quite an interesting wee contrarian view the other day that maybe now would be a good time to buy prime central London property because actually it hasn't gone anywhere and the terms is down a lot.

I mean, I don't know.

I mean, I think you can point to lots of different reasons for that, but it's hard to ask to pinpoint a specific one beyond.

I mean, I guess it was a big beneficiary a capital flight, which I think people forget.

I think that after the Eurozone crisis and the financial crisis, and also that was the time when Saudi Arabia particularly was cracking down quite aggressively on its richest people.

And I say, remember there was an awful lot of capital flight from other parts of the world into prime central London roughly up until about twenty fourteen.

And then obviously there was a lot of changes made stamp duty et cetera, et cetera, bresit.

You know, you can argue with that that was healthful or not.

I mean it mid stale Ingo down.

You would think you would act living courage more people that buy Counting down and buy till Late.

So I guess there's a lot of reasons why that idea may have sufficlarly.

Yeah, And we hear a lot of the moment, don't we about how Americans are moving to the to the UK.

If you have Americans, they're coming to the UK, They're coming to London, to they coming to Scotland.

A lot we keep hearing that.

I keep reading this in the papers, and then I ask Grand in Scotland and yeah, not so much.

They do their taxes.

The Americans so have held.

Well, what happens is that they come to the they come to the UK and they think, well, they'll buy a house in Scotland or possibly in London, and then they find out that it's classified as the second home because they're keeping their apartment in New York or wherever it is, and the stamp duty is absolutely horrendous.

So I think you're less likely to see people buying property in the UK when they see the upfront cost of doing so.

And then of course we have this the constant story that we hear in numbers will become clearer over the next year or so of people leaving the UK at the top end, and that that will bring them selves through, right.

Yeah, you would think so.

Yeah, maybe it's the timing by if you've had your heart set and.

Finally moving to nothing.

Hell exactly, I want to live the huge dream.

But no, I don't know.

I don't know.

I think I struggle.

I feel excited about that as a trade, even though maybe it is I don't know.

Anyway, you were mentioning earlier, we were we were making a final version of a podcast on housing market to go with our series on housing markets is coming out in a few weeks.

And you mentioned in this correlation that you've seen or lack of correlation between transactions and spending on refurbishment.

Yeah, well, this was something that popped up earlier this week, and it's not something It was one of the Bloomberd colleagues that wrote the piece, but I think it was content data from Savos.

The number of home renovations getting done is like a ten year low, and it's basically because usually what happens as you expect that it's planning permission for important stuff like you know, changing l extensions and things like that, and obviously usually that kind of roughly goes in line with transactions because people move and then they do stuff.

So it seems that people are now moving but not doing stuff.

And Savos kind of puts it down to people just they sort of suggested that it's because there's more supply on the market and so people are able more readily able to choose kind of ove and ready properties and the ones you can just move into.

But I think you could also look at clearly people haven't spend more to get in their property because interest rates have gone up.

And also, i mean, the build cost inflation in recent years with COVID has been nuts.

So I'm guessing that the kind of like implied value of doing a renovation is much much lower than it was maybe five years ago.

It might it also be that there isn't a house left in the UK that hasn't already been fully renovated programs on the telly for decades.

Is there a house left in central London, for example, without conservatory out the bank and assigned to return?

And you know, that's I wonder if that's not something to do with it.

It's almost given how few new houses we building, given that the housing stock remains kind of static, given that you know, turnover is reasonably high, and renovation has been on the go for forever, it's all done.

It's all done.

Literally, there's no one left he needs a conservatory.

Well yeah, and also people did spend a lot of money on that house, is John COVID.

So I mean, I can't imagine based on that.

I mean, I mean, it's an interesting thing, you see, But you're right, there's a lot of different reasons that it could possibly be for that, Okay, well, there we go.

Here's your chance.

Now's the time to go out and buy a house, preferably in central London that is pre renovated, because there's millions of them right John to notting Hill, Thanks for listening to this week's Marrin Talks Money debrief.

If you like our show, rate review and subscribe where ever you listen to podcasts or ebby show to follow me and John on x or Twitter at marinas w and John Underscore Steppeic.

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