I feel like it's gonna be a great show.

Already threatened to sue multiple people in the live chat.

One of hooms, just did you see this, Jesse?

Somebody just gave us two dollars.

Andrew gave us two dollars on a superchat.

I got news for you, Andrew.

We don't need two dollars.

We already have two dollars.

And on a much more serious note, I keep meaning to turn the super chat function off because you please don't be giving us your money.

The show's free.

It's free for a reason.

We got quick trip for all that.

We're jam packed.

We're high a top, lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

Tuesday Night, October fourteenth, the Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five.

What do we do on Tuesday?

We predict games.

Got a pretty loaded schedule this weekend.

Some people's lives, at least they're playoff lives, could be ruined.

Speaking of playoff lives, mine has kind of been ruined at least in some respects from the preseason predictions I made.

But you see, that's why God gives us redos in life.

And one of life's great mulligans is when you get to around week seven or week eight.

In the college football talking sphere, you could just make new predictions.

We check the bylaws today, there is no rule against it.

So tonight I'm just re racking them.

The playoff balls, at least I'm re racking them, and I'm telling you, as of today, how do I think the Playoff's going to go?

But just be forewarned, I'm not letting go of some of these teams that are all but left for debt.

I'm not letting go of some of them.

So I've got that.

I've got a brand new JP pole.

We got a lot to talk about with Penn States, and people have called my takes into question Jesse, and Jesse has done very little to stand up for me in the Penn State world, So I got to stand up for myself here.

And we'll also discuss where they could go.

Are they going to hire Matt Random, Marcus Freeman, rumblings out there, what's real, what's fake?

We'll talk about all of it.

And they're watching us in Amarillo, Texas tonight.

That's not something we're gonna cover on the show.

I'm just telling you they're watching us in Amarillo.

They're watching us in Akron, Ohio, Gainesville, Florida, Baltimore, Maryland.

I want to give a rare one two three triple paper pop.

I asked you pretty forcefully on the show Sunday night, subscribe to the channel.

Please.

Four thousand of you did so.

We got four thousand subs on Sunday and early Monday morning, so I appreciate it.

So if you're one of the few remaining out there who love college football and haven't subed to the channel, please do so, because it's free and it doesn't cost you, sorrowing you up for anything, It doesn't do anything to you.

It just helps us.

Thank you so much.

All right, let's go dive into the show.

I come to you on this Tuesday night here in mid October begging you to let me repredict the college football playoff, and I hear no voice of dissent, raise your hand.

And if you're against this, all right, no one objected in the studio.

So here we go.

The first thing you need to know is, at the beginning of the season, reluctantly I predicted the playoff.

I say reluctantly because I don't think there's a whole lot of skill in this.

This is what it looked like.

Yes, that's the Florida Gator logo up there with the eight seed.

I don't think it's going to work out for Napier and the boys.

Yes, that's Penn State with a first round by I'm not even feeling that bad about that.

I think most people, at least that I saw, had Penn State in the playoff.

And as we all know, if you do something bad but a lot of other people do it too, it's not your fault.

It's written somewhere.

So let's see Clemson with a five seed down there, not feeling great about that, We're probably going to have to rethink that.

You'll notice Nebraska has the eleven seed.

More on that in a second Arizona State not too good, Texas not too good, not quite dead.

So yeah, there's some stuff in here that frankly I wish I had back.

But we can't go back in time.

But what we can do tonight is we can just say, let's just repredict it.

So I'm going to repredict playoff and I'm gonna do it conference by conference, and then I'll show you what my one through twelve would be.

And I know a lot of you listen on podcasts, so it's not going to be strictly visual, and you got to remind me of that, Jesse.

I will lay it all out for you.

So here we go.

In the SEC, it's a jumbled mess.

Well it's not a mess because it's entertaining.

It's just hard to figure out.

The SEC is what the Big Twelve used to be.

Ironically, the Big Twelve has become what the SEC used to be.

One of them is really easy to figure out, and the other one.

We've got ten teams with zero or one conference losses.

Yes, that's the state of the SEC now.

Of course, mathematically that can't continue.

Ole Miss plays Georgia Saturday, LSU plays Vandy Saturday, Tennessee plays Alabama Saturday.

So a lot of these teams are about to collide and we'll see where it goes.

I feel pretty good about two of these.

But you'll notice if you look at the league standings, Ole Miss is right up there.

For example, they've got no conference losses so far, A and M and Alabama only undefeated SEC teams in league play.

The odds right now, I think makes sense.

So the odds at FanDuel to win the SEC are Alabama, and then A and M.

There's a little gap between Bama and A and M.

George's right there, and then it's a little bit of a gap, and then Ole Miss Texas is still there.

Then there's a huge drop off.

So you've really got a lead pack of five teams.

And I think it's interesting that LSU is not part of that lead pack.

Missouri is not part of that league pack.

So from a FanDuel perspective, from a market perspective, they're saying Bama absolutely the favorite, A and M, Georgia, Ole, Miss even Texas, we could see it.

I will choose those top two teams there.

Bama was my preseason SEC championship pick.

They haven't even lost a conference game, and they've gotten a lot of the losable games out of the way.

Still got a few to go, but I'll ride with them.

But I am going to switch up the team that I think they'll play.

I will put Texas, A and M in Atlanta.

That'll be the first time they've been there since they been in the league.

That would be just a huge, huge feather in the cap of Mike Elko even making it there in year two of his tenure there.

So give me Bama over A and M in the SEC championship game, and then we'll pause and we'll see what that means for seeding next up Big Ten.

It's not totally clear, but it's coming into form really really quickly.

Here.

Ohio State and Indiana have been the class of this conference so far.

I to me, I'm more worried about how does the rest of the conference backfill?

By that, I mean, if it is Ohio State in Indiana one to two in any order, then what is Oregon?

What is USC?

What is Nebraska, Washington, Michigan?

Like, how much of it's, say, are these other teams downstream in the Big Ten standings going to have in the playoff bracket?

So like Nebraska, for example, I had them in my preseason playoff bracket.

I think it the eleven seed, and right now they're sitting here still having to play at Minnesota, they got Northwestern, USC, at UCLA, at Penn State and Iowa.

A lot of losable games, like Nebraska's far from invincible, But the one that you kept looking at after they lost to Michigan a couple of weeks ago was, uh, oh, they've still got to go two.

Penn State towards the end of the year.

Well, that does not carry the same weight as a sentence that it used to.

So there is no one hurdle there that you look at and say, there's the definitive second loss in totality.

Do I think Nebraska is a good enough team where I can start penciling w's in there.

No, I do not.

However, I predicted them in the preseason, and I can't come off of this.

So if there's some team that's going to weave their way through there as an at large team, I'm still holding out hope for Nebraska.

As for the Big Ten championship picture, Ohio State in Indiana, and I have a sneaking suspicion a lot of folks out there in very expensive suits are pulling for USC to upset that there's USC could go on a run here.

You've got to wonder how meaningful to the Big Ten championship picture will that USC at Oregon game be a little bit later in the year.

For that matter, Oregon the week after, I think, plays Washington this weekend, Washington goes to Michigan.

That outcome will start to determine how much weight that Washington Oregon game could carry.

That's a long way down the road.

Give me Ohio State against Indiana in the Big Ten championship game until further notice.

I will ride with Ohio State.

They are favored to win the conference.

And then it's Indiana and then there is a huge drop off, like a roller coaster drop off to Oregon and then another huge drop off to Michigan.

So the Big Ten picture as of right now, it's really in focus, and some stuff has to go wrong, and by that I mean Indiana has to somehow lose a football game or Ohio State for things to change.

In the Big Twelve.

Here we go with Texas Tech just a runaway freight train.

But Josh, I'm looking at the league standings on the screen.

They're one of three undefeated teams in conference play.

Yes they are.

Now, I'm not taking anything away from Brigham Young.

I'm just saying, you see Texas Tech and Cincinnati and Utah all there in the top five.

BYU still has to play all of them.

They just hadn't played him yet.

So from a JP Pole power rating perspective, we don't think as highly of Brigham Young as some of these other teams.

So I don't view them as a conference championship contender at the moment, but upsets happen every Saturday.

They're really good at it.

They play Utah Saturday.

Actually, so like this stuff could change in the next twenty four forty eight seventy two ninety six hours.

You got to run the numbers here on the desk.

Cincinnati versus Utah could be a play in game for the conference title game when they do face off.

I think Iowa State already with two conference losses, it's tough to see.

Plus they're really badly beat up.

TCU in Kansas State also have two conference losses.

So for the Big Twelve championship game, Texas Tech I think is going to be there.

They are the current fairly overwhelming favorite to win the whole thing in the Big Twelve.

I think they're gonna be there.

I think they're gonna have a rematch against Utah.

And it's very interesting that everyone's gonna remember, well, that game already happened, and it happened in Salt Lake City, and Texas Tech rolled half the game with their backup quarterback and they still rolled.

They did.

There is no catch there they did.

I think you'd be somewhat surprised at how low that point spread would be.

Just keep that in mind.

Still a ways to go, But if that game does happen, you had to blow out in Salt Lake City, I think you may be surprised, relatively speaking, how low that point spread would be.

Because Texas Tech plays at Arizona State this weekend.

They're a double digit favorite, So like you're having to lay a heavy number if you're betting Texas Tech right now.

In the ACC, this is the conference where the weirdness could happen.

It used to be the Big Twelve.

The Big Twelve makes a lot of sense right now on paper.

The ACC this is where the weirdness could happen.

Miami's looked like the best team here so far, I will grant you that.

But Duke SMU, Virginia, Georgia Tech, they're all undefeated in conference play right now, and they don't all play each other, and they don't all play a murderer's row of a schedule, So you need to also keep in mind in fact, Jesse, do we have Miami's schedule.

You need to keep in mind how Miami season ends.

It's very very clear right now Miami is going to be favored over everyone they play.

They may be favored most weeks by double digits, but they have taken their last buy.

They play Louisville this Friday night, I believe, and from that point on it's all conference games and they do not take another bye week.

So count them right here with me.

One two, three, four, five, six, seven games in a row to end the regular season.

The last two weeks weeks are on the road in cold weather cities, at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh.

If they are to make it to the ACC Championship game, that would be a third consecutive week on the road.

We've been talking about this since spring.

It is very, very unenviable a spot to be placed in by the schedule makers.

Now, if you're an Oklahoma fan and you know the schedule you have to play, you're looking at that saying I would trade for that in a heartbeat.

I know you would.

Of course you would.

I'm not sitting here saying that this is the toughest schedule you've ever seen.

It's a really weird dynamics based schedule, that's all I'm saying.

So if they go to Charlotte, which I think they will.

I've got Miami playing for the ACC Championship game.

They're the current minus one eighty favorite to win the ACC.

I think they'll be there.

I've got them playing the team that has the second best odds to win the league right now, Georgia Tech.

I have not budged off that I had Georgia Tech playing for the ACC Championship game before it was cool to have Georgia Tech playing in Charlotte.

You give me my Miami to beat Georgia Tech in Charlotte.

However, just keep in mind, as we start to get towards what could potentially tear the bracket apart, Georgia Tech's going to be playing a team that may be beat up.

Now.

You don't know about the injury situation with Miami.

Miami is a very star studed team.

There are portions of that Miami roster, just like with a lot of these high level teams, where you remove the number one from this position group or that position group, and there is a fairly sizable drop off to the number two.

Now, if they stay healthy, that's a moot point.

This is college football.

It's not a fairytale world.

No one stays totally healthy.

She just never know what situation they may be in.

All right, let's take a look at what I think the seeding will be.

So I just gave you my conference championship updated winners.

Here is where I would have the seating right now.

I got Ohio State winning the Big Ten, so they'd be my number one overall.

I got Miami winning the ACC they're my number two.

Texas Tech roles to win the Big Twelve, that's my number three, and I got Bama as the SEC champ.

I'm not so sure.

Bama may not lose another game though, just a little bit tougher schedule than some of these other teams here.

That's why I've got Bama number four.

If Bama don't lose another game and they win the seced, that'd be the two seed.

But give me Bama as the four seed.

All right, Big Ten Championship game loser Indiana as of now, I've got to assume that's their first loss of the season, so they're going to be right there in the five seed.

A and M if that's their first or even second loss of the season.

If a zero or one loss, A and M is in Atlanta, they're not dropping past six.

So I think pretty solidly you're big ten in SEC title game.

Losers are right there at five and six.

That's Indiana and A and M.

I got Oregon at the seven seed as an at large.

I got ole Miss as an at large at number eight.

I'm rolling the dice a little bit there.

Ole Miss could pop on the national radar big time this weekend.

They could be exposed as a fraud this weekend.

Like there's high variants in that Georgia game.

Ironically, I've got Georgia as the nine seed, so give me a old mess Georgia eight nine.

I've got Notre Dame in the playoff as of now.

There's a lot of debate to be had there, and I will have that debate in just a second.

I'm sticking with Nebraska at number eleven.

I had it in the preseason.

I'm not coming off Nebraska.

You've got to you got to kill some of my predictions before I'm willing to let them go.

And I've got usf currently as the G five team.

Whoever the G five team is, they'll be in that twelve spot.

So the first thing that is going to immediately come to the forefront here before I show you the entire bracket is how will Notre Dame get paired or compared with some of these other teams.

Notre Dame right now, so the two loss team, they have Southern col this weekend.

If they lose this weekend, they will not be a playoff team.

There are some people out there who claim even if Notre Dame were to win out right now, they still may not make the playoff.

Now, my whole philosophy on that is, consider what we're saying there.

Notre Dame right now is four and two.

Their losses are to Miami by three and to amm by one.

So theoretically, here that would be two losses by a combined four points two playoff teams, one of them being a conference champ, the other participated in their conference championship game.

So those are about as high quality losses as you could have.

And the committee, I think will be looking at that and then also looking at the fact that they just rattled off ten straight wins, and they'll be saying things like they're the hottest team in the country, and I think they'll also be a talking point.

Now, this is just priming you for this.

I think if Notre Dame rattles off ten straight and they finished ten and two.

There will be a very popular sort of focus grouped talking point that starts to circulate about how if Notre Dame would have played Miami and A and M in the middle of the season after they got hot, maybe one of those games goes their way, and you can't disprove that.

I just think it'll be inition in the in the chamber of someone who's already looking to make the Notre Dame argument.

I'm just wondering how they get compared to like a three loss SCC team or even some two loss teams.

Just that's going to be a big debate.

It's impossible to know who A and B is right now.

Notre Dame would be A.

It's impossible to know who the B is right now.

So you got that big twelve and ACC championship game could completely tear this bracket apart because right now, like in my projection, I've got Miami beating Georgia Tech.

But it doesn't have to go that way.

Georgia Tech could sit there and beat Miami and at that point Georgia Tech is going to be in the playoff.

Miami is still going to be in the playoff.

It's the same thing that happened in the ACC last year when you had Clemson end up winning the thing.

So you had two ACC teams in and that knocked somebody out of a spot.

Well, that could happen here.

It could also happen in the Big twelve.

What if Utah is the sixteen seed, but they go in the playoff or in the conference title game and beat Texas Tech.

Texas Tech still going to be in the thing.

It's just that Utah is going to be in there as well.

And Heaven help everybody, if both of those things were to happen, that's how you knock some of those at larges out of the field.

I know that, I know that sounds fun, But from a media standpoint, like from a media rights network standpoint, that's doomsday for those people.

Dooms day.

I don't have a media rights deal.

I'm not broadcasting any of the playoff games on our YouTube channel.

I'm good.

I'm fine with whatever come what may.

But the punishment for the conference championship game losers is the other thing to keep an eye on.

So here's a scenario.

As I'm about to give you my bracket, but here's a scenario I just want you to think about.

We're still a ways away.

It could be a moot point.

Let's just say Notre Dames sitting there at the ten seed going into conference championship Saturday.

Notre Dame's done, They're season's done, so they're not playing in the conference title game.

Let's say Georgia Tech's number nine.

Kind of similar to what I was dealing with last year.

Let's say Georgia Tech sitting there, number nine, Georgia Tech loses to Miami.

Is Georgia Tech falling behind Notre Dame?

Let's say they fall out entirely.

Is the committee willing to punish someone for the audacity of earning their way into their conference title game and playing in it, which Notre Dame doesn't do.

It's just it didn't happen last year.

SMU didn't get dropped out last year.

That's one year.

So the committee sitting there telling you, and we're going to emphasize strength of schedule.

Remember we got that new criteria allegedly that we're going to be going by, So it's going to really emphasize strength of schedule and where we've got this value monetarily that's baked into these conference title games.

We cannot afford to render them irrelevant.

Therefore, we can't be punishing people when they make their conference title game.

You can't do that.

That's an optics nightmare.

Ethically, it's a nightmare.

Value wise, it's a nightmare.

So just keep that in mind.

All right, here is my updated bracket.

I am so scared.

So here's what it would look like.

The numbers actually kind of should be inverted because I believe in home team on bottom.

So we would have Georgia go to Oxford in round one, Georgia versus Old Miss.

We'd have South Florida going to Indiana in round one.

We would have Nebraska on the road at Texas A and M.

And Notre Dame in Eugene against Oregon.

Here is how I have those games shaking out.

Give me Georgia over Ole Miss, give me Indiana over South Florida.

Give me Texas A and M beating Nebraska.

It was a fun ride.

It was a very fun ride.

And give me organ over Notre Dame.

Although there is nothing that shocks me.

If Marcus Freeman a Notre Dame get in the playoffs, I really value having been there last year, and there is that aura that had existed about autsin stadium, but it's deemed a little bit right now because of what Indiana just went in there and did.

So I don't necessarily think Notre Dame would be rattled going on the road to Audsin.

Save that.

Use it as a SoundBite if you need to.

Three months from now, Mario Christobaul versus Dan Landing in the second round of the playoffs, Buddy, that is that is popcorn.

That is cinema.

If you just if you just think it through for a second, just an unbelievable matchup there.

I'm going to take in the following order, Ohio State over Georgia.

I'm going to take Alabama over Indiana.

That's de bor facing a team I used to coach in Indiana.

I'm taking Oregon over Miami.

And I am taking Texas A and M over Texas Tech.

Don't overlook that match up there in the second round, Texas Tech versus Texas A and M.

How about the fact that we got two Texas teams in the bracket here, neither of them have that longhorn logo.

There's a little bit of an upset if you predicted that in July.

All right, our semi finals are set.

It's two national championships basically, so Ohio State versus Bama, Oregon versus Texas A and M.

This got easy for me because my national championship matchup preseason is still in play.

So I'll take Alabama versus organ in the national championship game.

My national champion is still very much in play.

So give me Alabama to win the national championship.

So if I can just get the bracket to fall that way, if Dan Lanning can get Organs act together and Alabama can continue to walk this tight rope, both of them stay relatively healthy.

Once I get in the playoff, it's going to be a tall order to beat Ohio State.

It's going to be a tall order to beat A and M because if both of those teams have gotten that far, they're clicking and those are really good talent rosters.

But I'm not coming off my preseason predictions unless I absolutely have to.

Again, ethics, we teach it at Payt State.

So I started with Alabama and Oregon.

I'm sticking with Alabama and Oregon.

And if it doesn't come true, it's caused kids, coaches or officials screwed up.

It's not cause a meet, It's not my fault.

Quick trip could fuel you if you wanted to go watch either team play this weekend.

Quick trip fuels the falldon't lie Tour.

Quick trip fuels us every day of our lives really cold brew on tap, gasoline, trail mix, pizza, whatever you need, protein shakes.

So the Faldn't lie shirt right there by the way is available in the Peate State store.

We updated every week like we're going to Nashville, which we're already in the city of but we're going Saturday.

The Nashville shirt is available there in the Peate State Store.

Paytstatemterial dot com.

We appreciate quick trip though fueling the Faulldont Lie Tour.

This is the least amount of gas that we'll ever need this Saturday.

But in the interest of honoring quick Trip, our partner, I will not walk to this game.

I will drive to this game.

Crank it, put it in drive, put it in part.

Two minutes later, we will drive to the game, just out of a solidarity move with quick Trip.

All right, let's continue.

We got games to predict.

That's what we do around here.

What did I, Uh, this is a bad thing, but I'm gonna tell you what just happened.

Okay, So normally, if you look at the live chat, now you know why I'm laughing.

Normally, I have a pre typed message that I copy and paste into the live chat a few times per show.

Normally it says, you know, subscribe to the channel like the video, thanks for watching.

Just before we went on air, some guy was arguing with me on Twitter about how Indiana may not be good because maybe they beat Oregon, but Organ's not that good and they're being falsely inflated.

I said, that's not all Indiana's done.

I said, they also disemboweled Illinois on free TV.

That's what I said, But I had to check and see if I was spelling disemboweled right.

So I copied and pasted disemboweled, and I put it into Google really quickly to make sure I was spelling it right.

Then the show started and I never unpasted it, or I never uncopy.

I never put my normal chat message in copy, so I just went copy paste out of muscle memory habit here and I wrote disemboweled in the live chat.

So if you're wondering why I wrote disemboweled in the live chat.

That's why.

All right, Jesse, you got moderator privileges in there.

Tell them to like and subscribe, please, Ole Miss at Georgia Saturday, three thirty Eastern kickoff on ABC.

This is the moment last year in this game in Oxford, Mississippi, where I thought the Georgia halo sort of started to fade a little bit.

Maybe it got dented because Georgia went on to win the SEC Championship.

They went onto the playoff and it was crazy.

It was miraculous because it was far from a perfect team, but they looked vulnerable in this game last year.

I think it was a twenty eight to ten final.

Ole Miss outgained them by like one hundred and fifty or something like that.

Ole Miss out rushed Georgia one hundred and thirty four to fifty nine in this game.

It looked like they were terminal flaws with Georgia.

So all week, if you've been listening Kirby Smart, he's been stressing home field.

We need this to be the best home field advantage we've ever had.

You may think to yourself, oh, they probably got a lot of recruits in town.

He's just saying that.

You know, they got a big TV game, They want a really good spectacle for the crowd.

Yeah, they want all that.

Yeah, all those things are true.

Here's what else you need to know.

George has been really bad in first halves.

They have gotten off to poor starts defensively.

They have therefore let themselves get put in a hole.

They were able to climb out of it against Tennessee, they were not able to climb out of it against Alabama.

They got put in and again last week by Auburn, and somehow, some way got out of it.

But it's a trend you don't want to continue.

Ole Miss is number six in first half passing in the country.

Georgia defensively first half numbers here eighty fifth defensively pass yards per first half.

I don't think that's a stat we've ever talked about.

They are one hundred and thirtieth are the Georgia Bulldogs on defense at completion percentage allowed in the first half.

So when you listen to coach Smart there talk about how imperative it is you get their show up early, scream as loud as you possibly can early.

It's because he understands if old Miss grabs a lead on him, it could be a long afternoon there between the hedges.

Ole Miss has only been on the road one other time this year, though, and that was against Kentucky.

Notably Lane failed to cover.

Notably Mark Stoops robbed us that day.

But my point is it was a competitive game.

They didn't pull away.

It was a weird looking point spread.

People kind of had to see it to believe it, and they did so last week, they're coming out of a bye.

They got inexplicably pushed to the limit against Washington State, and fairly people are looking at saying are they hollow or are they legit?

There's a world where that Washington State outcome is a red herring, and then they go get blasted by Georgia and everyone says, oh, in retrospect, we should have seen it come in.

There is another scenario that you know, good and will exists where they didn't pay two bits of attention to Washington State and they've been prepping for Georgia for the better part of a month and it shows Saturday.

I think you'll know early on which is which.

So last week Georgia played Auburn and I asked myself, what kind of clues did that game leave?

It was a weird game.

Georgia was down ten to zero, could have been seventeen to nothing, ended up being ten to three at the half.

But Jackson Arnold was fourteen of nineteen one hundred and seven yards, but he ran it fifty one yards in the first half.

Those are first half numbers.

And they controlled the clock.

I mean Georgia at the two minute warning portion.

Inside the two minute warning portion.

Actually the first half had run twelve plays, so the game control got away from him.

Fortunately Auburn didn't pull away, and they sat there and complained about officiating in the second half instead of playing football, and Georgia took it from him.

Ole Mess has that quarterback run as well.

That's an element with Trinidad Chambliss that you come here with.

The difference is unlike Auburn, Ole Miss has the explosive play capability through the air and on the ground.

Auburn one hundred and twenty seventh in that department, Ole Miss is sixth.

So what if you have to play catch up here against Old Miss, you sort of invalidate what should be a key edge for you because ole Miss defensively, they are ninety eighth against the run.

You should be able to run the ball on Old Miss, but that's only if you're not down fourteen or seventeen points, because if you've got to throw the ball to beat them to catch up.

In other words, if Georgia just puts themselves in that position.

Again, this is a top thirty pass defense and so again.

First quarter, first half game script as imperative here for Georgia as it will be all year.

The Georgia offense I think should be able to stay on schedule here.

They don't even have to start ultra fast, they just have to start efficiently, because I think they found something in the second half against Auburn.

Stockton also adds the running ability, obviously for Georgia.

The run game for Georgia much improved this year.

It's not top ten.

I didn't need it to be.

I just needed it to be serviceable.

It has been a serviceable ground game.

Ole Miss run defense can be had if you're not having to come from behind.

They can be had here.

Ultimately, what this could come down to is, I mean there's a spot here where when you're facing a run defense like that, I don't care if you're not vintage Georgia.

I don't care if Todd Gurley's not on the field.

I don't care if multiple future first round offensive linemen are spread out left right there.

At some point you just got to remember, man, we're Georgia.

Every now and then, Kirby pulls that out.

He did it against Texas last year.

I just call it a We're Georgia game where every now and then you just have to reassert yourself.

Maybe not reassert dominance, although that's the goal, but maybe this isn't a dominant Georgia team, but maybe situationally, there are just moments where you look and there's a key down and you say, that's Georgia, Harris, that's Kirby Smart, that's Georgia for you.

I think the game will be decided in the red zone.

Ole miss has settled for three a little bit too much from my liking.

So far this year, they're in the sixties in red zone touchdown percentage.

Georgia has a top five red zone defense.

So that's one of those little stack CATEGORIESF you're gonna pull an upset like this on the road, you need to invert and the other thing that I think about is this is Trinidad Chambliss's first road start in the SEC.

Correct me if I'm wrong, Jesse.

He wasn't the one who started that Kentucky game, and so this is it, Like, this is a big ask for a guy going on the road.

It's not a vintage Georgia defense.

They don't get pressure like they normally do.

So maybe he's given time, maybe he gets confidence early.

As you can tell by the inflection points at various parts of this preview.

I have mixed feelings about this game.

Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

Fan Duels got Georgia minus seven and a half right now, we're a little bit shorter than that model likes Old Miss a little bit more.

We got Georgia minus five, and I don't have a strong feel on it.

It's a desperation spot for Georgia.

It's a classic Ole Miss wants to win, Georgia needs to win type of moment, same as Red River shoot out last week.

Doesn't always guarantee an outcome.

But I just even though I went to this well and lost early on in the year with the Alabama result in Athens, I always default to trust in Kirby Smart in these spots at home, and I will take Georgia to win.

But I don't know if this is a pull away game for them.

I really don't.

I think there's enough that Old Miss has that that number right there, seven and a half is a little bit too much for me.

I'm not betting the game, so I'm riding the fence on this one.

I'm taking Georgia to win.

I'm taking Old Miss plus anything over seven, which FanDuel is giving me.

Right now, let's move on.

What a game?

What a game setting up in South Bend, Indiana this Saturday night, USC Notre Dame seven thirty Eastern kick on NBC.

How big is this friend of the program, Kay Adams attending the game?

College football?

Kay?

How about that college football playoff fate?

That's what's on the line for Notre Dame here.

There is some debate out there that a two loss Notre Dame is not getting in.

There is no debate about three loss Notre Dame.

They are Pop Tart Bowl bound.

All due respect Team Blueberry.

It was a statement moment last week for some people when USC did what they did to Michigan.

Not me, I just thought it was a very impressive win.

As I said Sunday, as I'll say again here on Tuesday night, this is where the statement would be made.

You don't make statements.

In other words, I view a statement as fundamentally changing what I think about you.

You don't make a statement as a favorite in the coliseum.

You make a statement by going on the road.

You are a nine and a half point dog and you're facing the team that you know good and well believes they can physically just lean on you because until further notice, you're still USC, or, as Memaw would say, compared to the Notre Dames of the world, little two light in the bridges to pull this off.

If you prove that wrong, if you turn that narrative on it's ear, that is a statement.

The number there, nine and a half makes it very clear the market still has to see it to believe it.

With USC, the market also still fully believes in Notre Dame.

So what do we think about this game?

Well, on the surface, on paper, notably what the game is not played on.

But on paper, because that's all we have on Tuesday, this looks like one of those games where there is no total high enough the total is sixty one and a half right now over under that's the total.

So if you just look on paper, USC's got the number two passing offense in the country, Notre Dame in the one hundreds in pass defense.

Hold on, I'll be yelling.

There's no need to yell at a screen.

I'm going to get to it.

I'm going to add all the conditions in the caveats.

In just a second, I continue.

Notre Dame number nineteen passing offense against a USC pass def that's also in the one hundreds.

So you may think to yourself, oh, fireworks, fireworks, And we have seen a game like that already this year.

We've already seen a game played in Notre Dame Stadium where the losing team had forty points.

That A and M game was forty one to forty.

So we have seen some points be scored there.

Now the follow up is you need to know that, Yeah, they gave up forty one that night.

They've given up twenty seven their last three games at Arkansas Boise, NC State.

There is a working theory out there.

Maybe there have been some changes behind the curtain there defensively, Maybe that coaching staff gets in that meeting room on Sunday.

It says, yeah, we're not doing this anymore, so we're going to change this, this and this.

That's one working theory.

Another working theory is, yeah, it was Arkansas and it was Boise and it was in C State, not all that difficult to flex defensively against them.

I think the truth is probably somewhere in between, but we'll find out.

A lot is going to be placed on the shoulders of Jade Mayava.

That's the USC quarterback.

It's a guy I'm extremely high on.

They're high on him.

They should be.

USC has down multiple tailbacks in this game, so he's got to get it done.

Notre Dame's good against the run anyway, defensively, so it's going to have to happen through the air.

USC had success through the air in this game last year, but remember that came with turnovers.

They threw two pick six's in this game.

Notre Dame, by the way, has forced nine turnovers in the last three games, so they've been taking the ball away.

US.

He gave the ball away in this game last year, and that was in LA.

This is in South Bend.

Leonard Moore number one grade per PFF in man coverage at the cornerback position this year against Makay Lemon.

If you're not able to watch this game on Saturday, don't worry.

That matchup will probably happen on Sundays for years to come as well.

I just highly recommend you check it out this Saturday.

Lemon, by the way, leads all of power for in receiving yards per game.

So which way does that matchup go?

Because I believe Mackay Lemon can do work against anyone.

It's gonna be limited against Leonard Moore, but I'm not look he may shut him down.

I just think it's very, very hard to shut that guy down.

I think he's the best, along with Jeremi Smith, excuse me, the best receivers in the country.

And if USC wins that thing, then everything else working downstream of that with those other pass catchers sort of falls into place because elsewhere they're a place to be made against the secondary, I believe.

So that's one thing to watch.

The other thing is when we got USC out there defensively, how much pressure can they get on CJ.

Carr.

Believe it or not, they're fifth in sacks this year now, their overall pressure rates not that great, but they have gotten home.

When they bring added guys Danton Lynn against Mike Denbrock, that's a great coordinator versus coordinator matchup.

They will bring pressure they know they have to.

Now with that opens you up to the possibility that you make some mistakes or it opens you up to the possibility that you forced turnovers.

I will just say this.

I was on the field in Champagne a few weeks ago when USC went to Illinois last time.

They had to travel really and it was not good, not good at all.

And Luke Altmeyer, known by some in Nashville as Luke Altenheimer, threw for over three hundred against USC.

Now Michigan didn't.

But Michigan doesn't really believe in passing this year, so they're going to get tested against CJ.

Carr and it'd be a very big surprise to me if if they throttled him down, because I think that Notre Dame passing attacks too good as well, So you're gonna have to trade points at some point here.

I think it all comes back to the same thing with USC.

Though you notice how deep we've gotten in this preview without mentioning this.

It's none intentionally I haven't mentioned Jeremiah Love, I haven't mentioned Price, I haven't mentioned the tailbacks.

I haven't mentioned the ground game, period, because that's what I wanted to end on until further notice.

The edge that the Notre Dames of the world have on you is they're bigger and faster and stronger than you.

They're deeper than you, they're tougher than you.

Just all the stuff that you read on the back of the college football serial box.

That's the edge that Notre Dame has on you.

And the thing that sucks about that is they're going to say it about you until you prove otherwise.

That's the statement.

That's what we're looking to see if USC can do here.

Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

Let's take a look at what FanDuel thinks.

Fandel right now has Notre Dame minus nine and a half, and that moved at the early part of this week because we agreed with it totally.

Early on, we got Notre Dame minus eight and a half.

With the model.

I believe in Lincoln Riley, I believe in Danton Lynn.

I believe it's ultra personal for these guys, and you better get this thing figured out, because if this is the last time you guys play this rivalry for a while, so help me.

The Office of the Future Commissioner of College Football will not look kindly on it.

I hate doing this, but I got to go with what I think is the right way to go in this.

I know it's a popular sentiment out there that Notre Dame's rolling now and so they're just going to like bury USC.

I'm not sure that happens, but I've also watched USC get buried.

Like there are some worlds where that Illinois game wasn't even close, and they window dressed it and defensive plays and turnovers kind of made it close.

So there are a lot of two way goes there.

I think Notre Dame is going to win a game.

I will roll the dice that USC is able to cover this number.

So that's another fence ride.

I know.

I did it with Georgia ol Mess I'm doing it here.

I think both these games are close, though, so it just so happens they're being played on the same day.

I'm going Notre Dame to win and I'm going USC to cover, which in the end is just another possible one possession loss.

That USC looks at and says, oh, we let another one get away.

You do not have to let this opportunity get away, though.

The opportunity that I'm speaking of is to go to Academy Sports and Outdoors and to buy a jacket.

If you don't get it from the Peyte State Store.

Of course, you could go get a fishing rod.

You could go get a kayak.

I hope you live in the South South if you're buying that this time of year.

But you can go get cold weather gear, sporting goods, equipment.

Obviously big league chewing the checkout line.

Academy has been with us for a long time.

We appreciate them.

It is October, which means November is about to happen, which means December's after that.

If we're doing the same calendar this year in twenty twenty five, which means Christmas is not too far away, it is never too early to go ahead and start stocking up.

You'd be shocked, stunned, amazed at how many things Academy Sports and Outdoors has beyond the obvious that you didn't know they have.

And if you can't get there in person, Academy dot Com is a close second.

Let's continue prediction.

Tuesday going swimmingly so far.

Tennessee at Alabama.

Third Saturday in October.

On the actual third Saturday in October, Saturday Night, seven thirty Eastern, six thirty Local kick on ABC.

You know, there was a period of time where the SEC schedule got jacked up and this thing was being played second Saturday, fourth Saturday.

Nope, third Saturday in October.

Both I believe both you I am.

I am of the opinion both of these teams should wear their home uniform for this game, okay, And I can't do anything about that right now.

Maybe one day I'm commissioner and I can just order this.

I don't really believe in the power of the pen, Okay.

I believe that the people should have the final say, except with this because I think both fan bases would want it.

And I can't do anything about this weekend.

But I really wish we could just see the Crimson in the Orange, no matter which venue they play this game.

Anyway, that's down the road a little ways.

As for Saturday, keep in mind Alabama goes to Missouri they win the other day.

Have you listened to a lot of the noise that's come out of Tuscaloosa since then.

If you listened to Ryan Grubb talk and Ty Simpson talk, I think they accurately have expressed how much meat they believe was left on the bone, how much, specifically in the passing game, they could have done in addition to what they did, and I believe that.

I actually thought one of the biggest mismatches that should have existed in that game was Bama's wide receiver corps versus Missouri's secondary.

They made some plays, but it was not a glaring mismatch.

But you want to talk about a glaring mismatch on paper, check out Bama's wide receiver corps versus Tennessee secondary.

This is the number fifteen passing offense in the country versus a pass defense in the one twenties, number eighteen in explosive passes versus a defense in the one twenties in that category as well.

So once again we arrive at this strange spot where looks like Bama should be able to rip them if I think they got the best quarterback in the country, or at least one of them in Ty Simpson, which I do.

If I think they got one of the best receiving cores in the country, which I do.

There should be a lot of plays to be made here.

But again, this is not a football field in my hands.

This is just a piece of paper.

So what does Tennessee do to win this game?

Because that makes it sound really lopsided.

It makes it sound really one side of Bama is about to roll.

Well, how Tennessee wins this game, to me is instead of getting caught up in the storm, you have to kind of create the storm yourself.

You lead the SEC in sacks, do you not?

Yes, you do?

Stats an info already confirmed.

I think.

Also, there is a world where Alabama's been very good at not turning the ball over so far this year, And there's a world where you get these stats that are out there in your face, and you think stats are static.

So what is now always will be.

But if you've watched college football for any length of time, anytime there's an upset period much less one of these big rivalry game upsets, the nature of those outcomes is that you ripped up the stat sheet that Saturday, something happened in that game that flies in the face of statistical wisdom.

That could be one of Tennessee's edges this Saturday, you lead the SEC in sacks.

Alabama's offensive line, especially on the right side, has been vulnerable as of late.

I think that you may see continued rotation over there at that right tackle spot until they eventually, well maybe they don't arrive at a conclusion, but I think eventually they will.

Three three defensive touchdowns in the last six games.

Number two in takeaways.

The folks over at Ulquest did a great job of just bunching a lot of these stat profiles together to make the case for Tennessee.

I happen to agree with it.

That's why I tossed it in the show.

So, yeah, Bama's only lost two turnovers all year.

They could lose two in the first half Saturday, for all I know.

That's one thing that needs to happen for Tennessee.

The other one is, let's say that doesn't happen.

Let's say the game is not going to be fundamentally decided by turnovers or big special teams plays, and you just got to you just got to trade punches with Alabama in a conventional way.

You got to control the game on the ground.

That's your other path here.

Tennessee is a top twenty five rushing offense right now, and Alabama is in the nineties in run defense.

Now, if you've watched Bama games, you may think, man, I knew they weren't elite, but they haven't felt that bad.

Well, that's because it hasn't been six yard run, eight yard run, seven yard run.

What it's been is a lot of manageable stuff in boom explosive fifty yards they are one hundred and sixteenth and explosive runs allowed.

That's what's bitten Alabama.

So if you can rip some of those off, and especially if you can mix tempo in which Josh Hypel does very effectively.

There were a lot of times last year in this game where Tennessee won the game.

But there were a lot of times, albeit with Nico at quarterback, where I thought they schemed guys open very well and the guy just overthrew them.

They still did another to win.

I thought Tennessee left a lot on the table last year.

So the other thing with Alabama is we don't know the status of jam Miller.

Jam Miller had to leave the game last week.

He's dealing with a concussion protocol this week, so that's kind of in the hands of doctors.

And if he's not able to go, or if he's less than one hundred percent, what does that possible lack of balance do.

Because Bama hasn't had statistical balance all year, like they have seldom topped one hundred yards on the ground with a tailback.

I think they've done it once.

But even if that's not right, they have not run the ball statistically effectively.

What they have done is they've stayed committed to the run because jam Miller is enough of a threat that the defense has to respect it.

If he doesn't play Saturday, then you think about how opportunistic Tennessee defensively looks at that and just thinks to themselves, we think we can we can defend the run, maybe with a lighter box than we normally would have to commit to it if jam Miller was playing.

Even though we know they're going to be stubborn, Alabama will be stubborn.

Grian Grubb will run the ball.

He knows he has to to make sure his deep shots are open and his passing games open.

Really, we're not gonna get baited by that.

That kind of could happen in this game.

If you don't possess the balance in terms of making the defense respect the run, that's real balance.

If you don't possess that, that's another way Tennessee could tilt the game.

I made a big case for Tennessee here because Alabama is a big favorite.

So let's take a look at at the model things.

Vanduel's got Bama minus eight and a half.

The model is right in line with that.

We've got Alabama minus eight.

Here's the problem.

There is I think going to be a damn breaking spot in the second half of this game where it really goes against Tennessee early on.

I don't think that's going to be the case, but there are too many big plays to be made.

And I know goodwell there's an emphasis in that building down there in Tuscaloosa this week about what the strength of that offense is, how underutilized some of the elements of that passing game have been.

And you just drool all over your play sheet looking at what you got coming in in terms of Tennessee secondary And you know that was a twenty seven point effort last week that I thought could have been closer to forty.

I think this week's effort will be closer to forty, and I think it'll be too much for Tennessee.

So I'm going to take Alabama to win.

I will actually lay the number here.

I do think Alabama's going to win the game by double digits.

They're watching us in Northport, Alabama.

They're watching us in Tampa, Florida, they're watching us in Bogata, Columbia.

We appreciate it.

Let's continue.

I almost did the copy paste thing again in the live chat.

We can't do that.

We cannot say disembowel twice on one show.

That's one time's okay, like one time's a warning.

But the disembowelment quota on this show has been and always will be once per show.

So over under one and a half, we want the under to hit.

We will be right here Saturday in Nashville, Tennessee.

LSU at Vanderbilt eleven a local kick.

This trip a very short one, will be fueled by quick trip fall.

Don't lie to her in the house over here at Vanderbilt, and LSU's coming in here with some juice, maybe a fair amount of juice.

They just beat South Carolina last week.

Speaking of leaving meat on the bone, how about LSU ground game finally woke up a little bit, didn't it?

Five point five yards per carry LSU in this economy running the ball?

Was that real?

You guys really mean that?

I hope you do.

I said about Tuesday of last week.

You remember why I tweeted out Jesse.

We didn't even flex on this.

We could have.

I said, LSU and Texas are going to look way better this Saturday, And wouldn't you know it, Texas goes and stuffs Oklahoma and LSU runs the ball as effectively as they have all year.

In fact, that was their first time above four yards per carry all season, five point five.

So it's a whole new day for the LSU run game, or is it.

Here's how bad it's been.

Even with that rushing effort baked in, there's still one hundred and thirteenth in rushing offense and Vandy is number sixteen in the country and run defense.

So you're not just waltzing into Nashville and running all over Clark Lee and Vanderbilt.

I don't think the potential is there with this LSU team, I said coming out of last weekend's game.

I know they didn't put forty five on the board.

But I've been critical of Joe Brady and that offensive staff because I thought they're capable of more.

They did show more out of the by It was very obvious there were a lot of sleepless nights spent in that building, exhausting all resources, and I thought they they did okay last week, but more so they showed potential.

Like I watched that LSU effort and I said, well, there goes Nuss's usual one or two inexplicable throws, which is just going to be part of the LSU experience this year.

But I watched it and said, you know, this makes me a little more confident than the usual twenty point effort from LSU.

So the potential is there.

This is what I call the thin ice theory.

If it's water, it's water, and if it's solid ice, you can go and do jumping jacks on it and it's not gonna break.

I'm trying to figure out how thick the LSU offensive ice is because I can see it on the surface after last week.

It's there, very solid.

I just tossed a pebble out there there were no ripples, So there's some ice that's for him do I feel confident enough to walk on this yet, I don't know.

Let's continue in the grand scheme of things, LSU versus Vanderbilt.

LSU wants to throw the ball to win.

They're probably getting Aaron Anderson back this week.

Garrett Nussmeyer came out of the by where fingers crossed.

He has a little bit better help about himself.

I don't know that he'll ever be one hundred percent of the entire season, Vandy is sixty ninth against the pass.

So look, Garrettnusmeyer has thrown interceptions in four of his last five games.

We can't be doing that on the road or ever.

We especially can't be doing that Saturday.

I mean, that's how Vanderbilt ends up getting you towards the half where they've got a two and a half to one plays, run advantage and time of possessions all out of whack, and you can't even get your offense going.

Vandy's top thirty in takeaways, by the way, So that's just sitting there.

Vandy is stewed by the way.

They didn't disappear.

You hadn't seen them in a couple of weeks.

You hadn't seen them since that Bama game because they had a buy last week, and I noticed the country kind of wanted to forget about Vanderbilt.

I know the AP voters did.

They they may have dropped Vandy last week because they didn't play, And according to the AP, Vandy didn't play, that means they didn't win.

We need to drop them.

You drop them three or four spots.

You're getting Vandy's best coming out of the buy.

Like they didn't go anywhere.

They're a one loss team, They're a top twenty five team.

They got one loss in conference, played just like a bunch of the rest of y'all do, including LSU, So you are an underdog in their building.

In case I didn't state that off the top, that number at the bottom of the screen if you're watching on YouTube is not a typo.

Vandy is favored by two and a half against LSU.

Just so we've properly set the table here.

LSU has seen some mobile quarterbacks before this year.

They saw Leonora Sellers and they bottled him up.

Last week.

Trinidad Shambliss at Ole Miss had a little bit better luck against them.

Blake Baker's an American hero at defensive coordinator, though so I think they'll have a good plan Saturday.

I think Vandy will have a good plan Saturday.

Frankly, I'm surprised the total is in the upper forties, but I'm right at five hundred betting totals this year, so I'm not touching the total.

But I'm a solid underlean on this one if I had to.

Each team is ninety fifth or worse in penalty yards per game, so someone preferably more than one.

But at least someone's got to get their act together there.

Pavia versus Blake baker Man.

This is what we pay the money for.

This is what we show up for with the fall.

Don't lie toy.

We want to see them.

We want to see that LSU defense against Diego Pavia.

We saw Bama look good against him.

But there were also two red zone turnovers.

And if it doesn't go that way, if it goes Vandy's way, if they execute better, who knows, maybe they put a much more crook number.

As Mima would say up on Alabama, Well, you've had two weeks since then to get yourself right and to get ready for LSU to come into town.

And now it's kind of super Bowl mode around here.

It's Tuesday as I'm talking to you, and Nashville's kind of ready for this.

Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

Vandy is a two and a half point favorite at FanDuel.

The model actually thinks the wrong team is favored.

The model is LSU minus one.

I have as little a feel on this game as any game out there.

I Jesse, Jesse, I think I may have changed my mind.

I think I may have possibly changed my mind.

I walked out onto the set tonight and I was going to pick LSU to win.

The more I think about Vandy season and how it could go versus how it's gone so far, it's a little bit of a crossroads moment.

It's a crossroads moment for both of them.

I go back to the thin ice theory.

I need to say it one more time from LSU on the road before I'm ready to fully believe.

Boy, I'm on the fence about this, and we already made the graphic for LSU.

I'll go Vandy, I'll take out I'll take Vanderbilt to win.

It's crazy you're talking like this with a point spread favorite.

I liked LSU, man, I think Vanderbilt's gonna win the game, all right, I'll take Vandy and cover.

I guess there it is.

I changed it to Vandy.

I don't know how you guys just did that.

I didn't even think we had the ability to change graphics on the fly, but that literally just got changed in the past five minutes.

We are, I guess we're no friend to people in Baton Rouge right now.

Look, you gotta follow your heart.

The head said LSU, the heart said Vandy.

But as for the rest of you, I mean in Nashville, if you want to support the pick, my goodness, please do it.

We had a terrible, terrible thing happened today.

We're moving on here.

We had a terrible thing happened today.

I am a big believer in October South Carolina football in the month of October.

Thus Cottober, I think is a very dangerous combination.

Now, they did lose to LSU last weekend, and for the record, we picked LSU to win and cover in that game.

No LSU hating here anyway.

That has shaken a little bit people's belief in October.

I'm all in.

I think that South Carolina is going to give Oklahoma fits this Saturday, October comes to Columbia.

The problem is not everyone agrees with me, and so one of you hit up Grok today.

Free plug for Grot, good for Elon Musk.

He's going to make something of himself financially.

And they asked Grock if co October is a myth perpetuated by me, and Grock comes back and says yes, the stats show Coctober is more myth than reality.

South Carolina is five and nine in October under Shane Beemer.

Josh Pate does love promoting it, though.

Cockvember thirteen and four is the real deal.

First off, Cotvember is inappropriate, stick with October, and secondly, it doesn't roll off the tongue.

And thirdly, if they get buried in October, November is not going to matter.

We need Coctober.

I'm not even predicting the game on the show tonight.

I'm just telling you Twitter has fallen, X has fault, whatever you want to call it, it has fallen.

I'm not going blue sky on you.

I think I just may tap out entirely, so you may not see me on there for a couple of days, because I don't need AI attacking me.

I know, South Carolina football, and October is very much alive.

Let's continue.

Jesse's in a bad way, and he's in a bad way because he is coachless.

He's got an interim coach at Penn State.

But Penn State is in a state of flux right now.

So Kyle from Harrisburg hit me up and I wanted to address the two things he asked.

He said, you sounded adamant about James Franklin not getting fired.

How can you not see where Penn State fans are coming from?

Also, do you have any ideas about the next guy for them?

Kyle, I one, one hundred and fifty percent understand where Penn State fans are coming from, so much so that I think, I said on the show several times I would feel the same way.

My vantage point was not one that was attached emotionally to Penn State.

I was looking at it through what I thought were logical lenses.

But I said, all the while, I completely get the sentiment.

I mean, I could probably vocalize what you guys are feeling as good as you can.

And so I looked at it, and you got to know something about me.

I got personal relationships with a lot of these guys.

But it's not even that because there are guys out there I don't know.

There are guys I've never met that I would say the same stuff about.

I always look at Firings coaches as last resorts, and I didn't feel it was last resort time at Penn State.

Some of you fundamentally disagree with that, Like some of you looked at the colin Ward footage that we're showing on the YouTube show if you're watching it right now, and there's nothing between James or there's nothing behind the eyes there for James Franklin, and they're booing and walking off the field, and you know, you feel like the team's dead and the season's dead, which I admit I thought it was a dead season.

It wasn't going to get any better, to be clear, if they had retained him, it wasn't going to get any better.

I'm just always a believer that things can get rectified, and things have changed across the landscape of college football.

But I completely get where you guys were coming from.

I had a lot of people push back and say I don't agree with Peyton's take because what he's saying is you should never fire someone unless you definitively have an upgrade out there.

And what you guys were saying is, nah, we're willing to take the risk.

Yet, Yeah, there is no guarantee that who we hire is going to be better than James Franklin.

But if the best we can do is just good, we're not okay with that because we don't invest good, we invest great.

So we're going to chase great.

We've had enough good.

We're going to chase great.

I was listening to Andy Staples talk earlier today.

He put it a really good way.

He said he agreed that Franklin should have been fired, So we disagreed on that front, but the case he made made a lot of sense.

And he said the entire premise of James frank as of late had been he wins the games that he's supposed to and the only games he loses are the few where he's an underdog.

So he's like very very properly rated, and that's why you keep paying him what you're paying him, and that's why you keep defending him.

But the moment that dynamic changes, like the moment you lose two games in a row as a three plus touchdown favorite, well, not only then are you not winning the games you're not supposed to, You're you're not even winning the games you are supposed to.

At that point, all the value for defending him drives up.

I understand that logic.

I disagree that the result should be that knee jerk, or the decision should be that knee jerk.

I will also acknowledge this.

I don't know that there's a whiff of scandal around this.

If there was, that's a fundamental game changer.

I will also say, since we had the show on Sunday, the language and the contract about mitigation clause is coming out.

That's a game changer too.

That means it's very very unlikely Penn State actually has to pay fifty plus million dollars in buyout money mitigation clause.

Those are just those clauses where it's in your contract that if they fire you, you've got to make a solid effort to go get another job immediately, and the salary they pay you is offset in the buyout.

Translation, go get the UCLA job, make him pay you five million a year, and then we're going to owe you five million per year less.

So instead of paying you fifty over the span of a few years, we pay you like fifteen or twenty.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

So now we're where we are.

The second part of that question was do I have any idea where they're going to go?

I don't think there's more than meets the eye right now.

It's early.

Like if you're looking at Pete Nakos, who is on the phone constantly.

I work in the same building as Nakos, so I watch him do two things, go out in the parking lot and shoot hoops and then sit on his phone all day.

And he was burning that phone today, and so I'm sitting there.

I mean, I got the cup to the door and I'm listening.

I know goodwell who he's taught looking too, and I know that information is legit.

So when Pete Nkos tells you Matt Rule is the lead candidate right now until further notice, Matt Rule is the lead candidate, Kurt Signetti, I absolutely will be coveted here.

I told you I'd go after Matt Campbell.

I think he's on the list.

The Marcus Freeman stuff's a little interesting to me, Like I don't think Freeman would ever go to Penn State that doesn't mean Pat Kraft couldn't take a wild swing at him.

So yeah, there may be legitimacy there.

And this is my opinion speaking.

Now, there may be legitimacy there in a sense that Marcus Freeman's incredible at his job, So anyone who has a job opening is dumb not to try and lure him.

I don't think he would be lured to Penn State.

But again that's just my personal opinion speaking.

But the thing with Matt rule, look selfishly, I hope Matt rule stays at Nebraska because I think rule at Nebraska is really good for college football.

I think there's something to be said in this entire you know, like this entire coaching search snow globe, if you will, anytime it happens, if you've ever been pursued professionally, it's one thing to deal in fifty thousand foot theoreticals like oh, if so and so ever offered me, I think I'd probably go, Or if they offered me, I don't think I would go.

That means nothing when they put the paper in front of you, here's the offer.

That and only then is when it's real.

And so there's going to be a moment.

I think if things go the way they look like they're going to go, there could very well be a moment where, and it's two months from now, maybe Matt Rule actually has the Penn State offer.

And you got to ask yourself, do you think he would turn that thing down?

Not when it's theoretical in October, but when it is on a piece of paper in front of him in December?

Would he turn it down?

Is his team in the playoff like I predicted them to be, Does that timetable have any impact on this?

It's just some stuff to think about.

The other thing to think about is, yes, it's the middle of the season, so right now this stuff's going to garner big headlines.

It's not gonna garner big headlines after Saturday.

It's like chalk on the driveway once the rain comes through, or in our case, all the chalk on the driveway is the coaching search stuff.

Franklin got fired.

Well, we got a Saturday Saturday's worth the game's coming through.

That'll wash the driveway off.

Once that happens, Penn State message boards will be talking about it, but nothing's going to happen until December.

This isn't like a mid season trade where Penn State announces next week we're hiring Kurt Signetti.

He will no longer coach Indiana this year.

So a lot of stuff's happening behind the scenes.

That's the way the coaching searchers are going to work out.

The second thing, and if I'm a coach, I don't care who it is.

I'm very cognizant of this.

The second thing is more jobs are going to come open.

I promise you Penn State's the first major job to come open.

By major, I mean top fifteen.

It is not the last top fifteen job to come open.

Anyone who is in demand knows that.

Anyone's agent who is in demand knows that.

So you want to see the entire landscape before you make decisions.

And a lot of these candidates are going to be candidates from multiple jobs jai plural of jobs.

So those are just some things to consider it.

But I do think the early lists out there are pretty much on the up and up.

Like follow Nakos, Follow Pete Nakos.

He's very very in touch with this stuff and spends twenty seven hours a day on the phone.

Let's continue, Jesse, what do we have jpeople.

Yeah, I think we got JP Pole.

Okay, guys, I'll just intro it, Bradley.

Here, here's your intro point.

We do the JP Pole every Tuesday night.

These are not rankings.

These are power ratings.

And I am as beside myself with one aspect of the JP Pole this week as I could possibly be.

For those of you who are new, these are not my rankings.

I do those on Thursday.

I've got the computer model over here, and it is built to spit out teams in order of how the model would favor them on a neutral field.

Now, before you crap all over the model, this thing has won us money seven out of the last eight years we have used it to bet.

The ram Noodle Express is largely powered by the model, but the JP Pole is as well.

Now, the model largely has our best interests in mind, but it doesn't actually have a mind cause it's a computer.

So there's some times where we see things that the model can't see.

And trust me when I tell you, friends, that's about to happen tonight.

Okay, with that in mind, let me show you twenty through sixteen.

And I'm just gonna say this out loud.

If you're watching on YouTube, you're already laughing.

I'm just gonna say this out loud for the podcast crowd.

Then I'm going to come back to it.

Vandy is number twenty, Okay, Penn State is number nineteen.

Just hold your laughter for a second.

Clemson is eighteen, Southern Cows up five spots to number seventeen, and LSU is sixteen.

I am so irate that the JPP and the model has Penn State top twenty that I had pres who works graphics for us, manually override the power rating, but I didn't tell him remove Penn State because that would be unethical.

I had him draw on asterisk next to the Penn State logo and put the reasoning behind Penn State being power rated top twenty beneath it.

And the reason is drugs.

Drugs, That's the only reason Penn State could be power rated there.

Or put another way, the model is high on talent and it is taking Penn State's talent roster and saying, wait, you programmed me to value this, and like, yeah, I programmed you to value that.

Do you also not understand it's a dead team and I'm not talking to you guys right now.

This is just between me and the model.

I'll be with you in a second, Like, do you not get how that works?

Put it down, Put the pipe down and actually take a look.

Use your common sense.

You don't have common sense because you're a computer.

Okay, So yes, technically Penn State's nineteen.

Also, yes, there would be way more than nineteen teams favored over Penn State this week.

But if you think that the models alone on this, I need to remind you Penn State's playing Iowa this weekend.

Do you know Penn State opened and was briefly favored against Iowa before it immediately got bet across zero and now Iowa was favored.

Why is that?

Well, it's because the odds makers use the same kind of intel that we do to feed into their systems and their models.

All of you drugs.

Let's go fifteen through eleven.

Tennessee's number fifteen.

They play at Alabama this weekend.

Utah, we are still high on the model has not sold its Utah stock even after that blowout loss to Texas Tech.

Missouri and Oklahoma are thirteen and twelve.

Now Texas Tech's eleven, and I got to tell you again, I know you guys may not believe this, or you may have to see it to believe it.

I've only got a two point twenty five point gap, a two and a quarter point gap between in Utah and Texas Tech neutral field.

I'm like you, Okay, if fan duel, if that game were played today in neutral field like Arlington, for example, and they gave me Texas Tech minus two and a half against Utah, yeah, I'd lay tons of money on it.

It'd be a best bet for me.

But I'm not here to tell you which way i'd bet.

I'm here to tell you what the model says about these teams, and then you can dissect it appropriately.

Number ten is Old Miss.

They're down three spots after beating Washington State very unimpressively.

They go to Georgia Saturday.

Texas A and M's number nine.

Texas is number eight.

Now you'll notice Texas didn't move up any for US after beating Oklahoma.

Why is that because we already had Texas top ten.

We got trashed for that last week.

If you'll recall this is so stupid, Well, the model is drunk on Texas.

That's an evergreen statement, but in this particular moment, the model was right about Texas, and we believe Texas should have been a point spread favorite over Oklahoma even with John Mattier playing.

We were adamant about that.

Last week we got crapped on for it.

The folks who made the comments are silent now, you see, because we had Texas where they should have been.

We had Oklahoma where they should have been.

That's why neither of those teams really moved all that much.

We got the result that we thought we would get.

We were keeping the teams exactly where the model had them.

We got Oregon at seven.

They are down five spots.

We do not believe the Penn State subsequent results after the Oregon game should devalue the Oregon win at Penn State, meaning Oregon went to Penn State and they killed Penn State as a team.

They killed them, and then Penn State played like a dead team the next two weeks.

Franklin got fired because of it.

I don't believe, nor do you believe, Penn State would have gotten beaten by UCLA and Northwestern had they beaten Oregon, So that sucked the life out of Penn State.

I am not retroactively devaluing or taking credit away from Oregon beating Penn State because of it, because they're the cause of it.

So Notre Dame's number six.

Again, if you've doubted the model continuing to have Notre Dame this high, I only ask you to look at this game this weekend.

All this is based on, by the way, this thing's just who would be favored against two on a neutral field by how many?

Okay, well, Notre Dame plays Southern cal this Saturday, not on a neutral field.

They play them in South Bend, so let's add three points for home field.

Notre Dame is a nine and a half point favorite in that game, so even if I subtract the home field value, they're a six to a six and a half point favorite over usc Us.

He is not a bad team.

We got usc at seventeen.

I'm not making the case here to defend Notre Dame covering or anything.

I'm just telling you if you think because of two losses, Vegas is gonna have Notre Dame plummet in their odds making, you're crazy.

Notre Dame's way up there right now.

There are not many teams that would be favored against Notre Dame.

So they're number six.

Here's five through one.

We're just five.

Alabama's number four.

We didn't need to move them.

We already had them up here.

So like, Bama keeps winning these games, but we never dropped them, and we never dropped them beneath Florida State, for example, after week one, remember that was a while back.

Remember week two, we still had Bama way ahead of Florida State, and everyone was like, how is that possible?

This thing?

Click bait, clickbait, bait, Florida State crickets, Bama top five again.

Sometimes the model knows what it's doing.

Indiana is the number three team in the JP pole.

I can't believe what's happening.

They are plus eleven points in their power rating from where they opened the season.

They are plus eight spots from where they were last week.

So the model looked at that result and it basically said game on.

Like all the cobwebs that were over the model's eyes about Indiana have been wiped away.

It is perfectly understandable how Indiana would be favored or be ranked top three in a poll and a merit based poll.

I don't really think people properly understand how crazy it is that in a power rating model power rating format like neutral field favorability format, that the University of Indiana or Indiana University is above Alabama and Georgia and Notre Dame in Oregon, in Texas at any point in the season.

I don't think people understand how crazy that is.

I don't even think I fully understand it.

We got Miami two, we got Ohio State one.

Some quick notes here, Ohio State is a runaway number one.

Right now, we have a four point gap between Ohio State and number two Miami.

To give you an idea of how wide a margin that is.

There's four points between Ohio State and Miami.

There are four points between Miami at number two and the number eleven team.

So there's this wide a gap between number one and two as there is between two and eleven.

So good for Ryan Day.

Again, I don't really think Ryan Day is in it for the trophies.

He doesn't care so much about the Big ten championship game, Michigan rivalry, national titles, and playoffs.

Ryan Day chases being number one of the JP pole and for another week he's there.

It's a streak, it's a trend.

Now.

I don't know what we should send him.

I don't know if that's challice worthy.

But if you believe in the jpeople, and you believe in Ohio State, and I know Goodwill, you believe in at least one of those, you can go bet at FanDuel right now, exclusive odds provider of the show.

I'm about to add a couple of best bets aboard the RAM and Noudle Express for this weekend.

But FanDuel the exclusive odds provider.

But also, if you'll notice, back when I was doing playoff predictions at the beginning of the show, Bradley was throwing up a lot of random numbers on the screen.

Well, those aren't random numbers.

Those are odds to win conferences and they aren't hypothetical.

You could bet every one of those.

So if you saw like Texas and you really think they're about to have to ass a second half surge, and you saw they are in odds to win the SEC, you can go bet them right now.

You could also just bet them on the field.

Who do they play?

I think Kentucky.

I believe they play them this Saturday.

Here you can go do that.

If you're a new sign up, by the way, use that QR code or if you're listening or don't want to use QR codes, you can get a FanDuel dot com forward slash Josh pate.

Lay five dollars on the most sure thing you can find, and if it hits, you'll get three hundred dollars in bonus bets.

Just a nice little welcome to the family moment from FanDuel.

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Speaking of I would like to take this opportunity to close the show with two added best bets so so far this week, let me make sure we have this.

We're on Syracuse plus eleven and a half against pitt We're on Mississippi State plus nine and a half at Florida.

All right.

We are going to add to that Arizona plus one and a half against Houston.

And we're gonna again ride with Northern Illinois plus eleven and a half.

They are at Ohio.

That's gonna be a tough game for them.

That's why they're being given eleven and a half points so qs Mississippi State, Arizona, and Northern Illinois so far, with plenty of additions to come throughout the week.

Remember, if you're watching or listen, we love you, every one of us, even producer Jesse and Bradley, we love you.

Just subscribe to the channel.

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All right, Let's go home and eat dinner for producer Jesse, director Bradley.

I'm Josh Pate.

We'll be back one hour early Thursday night, seven Eastern, sixth Central Cublic.

I'm told we'll join the show.

We'll see until then, take care, have a great middle of your week, and God bless.

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