I've seen people take some shots at the FPI, not the BI, the FPI, ESPN's FPI.

I've even been known to take a shot or two in my day.

Of course, now we're partnering with ESPN, which means I'm told they tell you what to say, and which means we can't criticize the FPI.

But I bring this up because the criticism that the FPI takes is a day on the Amalfi Coast compared to what the JP pole is going to encounter tonight.

There will be some people who just don't get it, and there are others of you who full well know what I'm doing.

You just want to take shots anyway, and if that is the show that you seek, then you have come to the right place.

And if I have any friends out there left, I'm badly counting on you to defend me.

Tonight.

We are jam packed hyatap a love temperate downtown Nashville, Tennessee, on this Tuesday evening, September second, the Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five.

You know, Bill Belichick's a college football coach.

Now, I'm told things didn't go well for him last night.

Candidly, I've never understood a lot of the hooplah as me Mal would say, but I do have some thoughts on that game.

Not to lead the show, my goodness, not to lead the show.

No, we do have an AP pole that dropped today.

We have a JP pole, as I mentioned, that dropped today.

I will react to one and share the other.

We have several games that are taking place this week.

Tuesday night is prediction night around here, after all, so we will discuss that.

We got a big announcement.

We got new merch dropping.

Not in the show, it's just it's happening.

So we got a lot to do.

We get a jampack show.

They're watching us in Little Rock, Arkansas, Tupelo, Mississippi, Stockbridge, Michigan, and all the way up in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

Do you ever have those places where you've never been there but say, boy, it's beautiful there.

British Columbia is one of those.

College football rarely takes me there, and I don't travel if it's not for work, except for my honeymoon, even though I do recommend it.

But British Columbia is one of those places.

It sounds great.

I want to go guys need to get a team up there.

Maybe once we bring back the PAC ten once I'm commissioner, might that be an effort that I make to expand college football, not to Ireland but into Canada.

I don't know.

Balls are kind of in their court at the moment.

We want to do something to lead the show off, something that I'm told that I don't do enough, and so we want to do it tonight.

I was wrong about some things.

Did you hear me all the way in the back, Yes, even me, I was wrong about some things.

Now, we do have a long standing belief on this show that we've never actually been wrong.

I've never been wrong.

It's either I've been right or kids, coaches, or officials just screwed up.

It's my belief I shouldn't be held accountable for their screw ups, should just get the credit when I'm right.

However, in a much more real and logical sense, I was wrong about some things.

To what degrees have I been wrong so far?

Well, we talked for six months.

You talked, I talked, We all talked.

Mine just happened to be in a microphone, So there's a record of it about what we thought about the upcoming season, which is really fun to me.

I've never been a guy who says that you shouldn't have preseason rankings, have them just be willing to adjust, and that you should never have preseason thoughts and beliefs, like some people really think you should spend all of May, June, and July with your family not paying attention to college football whatsoever, and you just wait for the results to happen on the field.

What a terrible way to live, horrible idea, horrifically bad strategy in life.

So I've got beliefs just like you guys do.

What's fun is to make sure that you write them in pencil figuratively so that you can pivot once you realize that what you believed was a lie.

So some of the things that I saw in Week one, then I may have been wrong on.

LSU is one team that I may have been wrong on.

I say may because we've only got one week so far.

But that offensive line played way way, way better than I thought they would on the road against Clemson, And the reason why I'm pretty confident that I was just underestimating them is because that they could get it done in Week one in that environment, I'm pretty sure they're gonna be okay, by the way, in that environment, against that level of competition, because you can say whatever you want to about Clemson offensively than I will in a second, but defensively, they're the real deal.

That Clemson defensive profile is every bit as strong as some of the best that LSU will face the rest of the way.

So I think if we have that, then we've got offensive balance.

And look, they only ran it for three point five yards per carry the other night.

That's enough.

That's enough.

Got one oh eight on the ground, that's enough.

Because also every defense you face is not gonna be LSU.

And you know good and well, once enough starts slinging the ball and that wide receiver corps does what they can do, I have confidence above and beyond what I had in the preseason that LSU's offense will be balanced enough.

And if they have that, like I said when I predicted them to go eight and four, that's my biggest exposure team because if they show those elements, and we're going to find out early on against Clemson, I said that all summer.

Well, if they have those elements, then that's the kind of team that even though I'm predicting them to win eight games.

They could quite literally win a national title.

They could be that caliber of team because those one or two things.

If you turn the gear this way and you turn the knob that way, you know what kind of players they have done there, like, you know what kind of athletes they have.

So may very well have been wrong about LSU.

I don't think I was wrong about Notre Dame.

So Notre Dame lost the other night.

I actually predicted them to lose Week one, so the result was not a surprise to me.

The question is already any of you and most of us did who had Notre Dame ranked or power rated near the top of the country.

Were we wrong?

I don't think so.

In the I was actually a little encouraged the other night because they didn't run the ball all that effectively at all, and CJ.

Carr still had them in the game.

That's a minus two turnover game, that they're still right there in one possession game they lost by three on the road with a new quarterback.

That is encouraging to me because I think I know their wide receiver corpse good.

I think I know that I know I know Jeremiah Love can run the ball, and Price can run the ball.

I know they've got talent there.

I will blindly trust Notre Dame's offensive line play forever after what they showed me last year.

So no, not that anyone accused me of this, but I don't think anyone was wrong about Notre Dame for having them power rated or ranked really high.

Now what they do have is a lot lower margin for error.

So they play Texas A and M in a couple of weeks, going to be a war.

That's September thirteenth, slate, kids, make sure you don't plan any picnics that day.

Some of you already suckered into weddings.

I don't know what I can do for you at this point, fake sick.

I don't know.

That's your fault, not mine.

And then they got a game on the road at Arkansas a couple of weeks after that, who knows, Boise after that, who knows.

But just a little lower margin for error, that's all the problem there is with Notre Dame.

Texas had him number one, JP Pull had him number one.

They went and they lost to Ohio State.

Still not ready to say I'm wrong on them, expected more so, I guess to expect more offensively out of them.

I was wrong there.

I guess to expect a little more out of arch Manning.

I was wrong there.

But I feel like I'm vindicated on Arch because I never said Heisman and arch Manning in the same breath, except to say I don't think he's the Heisman favorite.

So I was more reasonable, I think on the expectation.

Also, have you noticed this sort of reactive bubble that keeps inflating.

It's like everyone is yelling for the Arch hype to stop, and the outrage over the Arch hype has now dwarfed the Arch hype.

I don't know.

I've seen this happen before.

I don't exactly know what we call this phenomenon, but I've seen it happen before in sports and in general society, where the outrage over a thing greatly outweighs that of the thing, which feels like an immunity opportunity.

But it's not now.

I will admit to you, I don't watch much traditional programming.

I told Jesse this the other day.

I said, everyone keeps talking about the Arch hype.

Is there really a ton of Arch hype?

And he says, oh, dude, it's everywhere, which it may be, Okay, I just I don't consume a lot of other shows.

I don't consume a lot of mainstream sports media throughout my day.

So maybe it was plastered everywhere, and you know what, I just may be out of touch.

I'm in a different lane over here, and I didn't see it, but we didn't participate in it proudly on this show.

That's not to say we're down on him.

I think we are exactly right on arch Manning.

The wide receiver separation alarmed me a little bit the other day when they played at Ohio State.

So yeah, that's something with Texas that I'm a little concerned about, probably should have been more concerned about.

So maybe a little bit wrong there.

Florida State one hundred percent wrong.

Florida State just completely totally whiffed on my expectation of them.

And I could sit here, a less ethical man would say, what about everyone else?

Everyone else was low on him as well?

No, no, no, we lead here.

Okay, we steer the ship here.

We fancy ourselves other shows show prep And if that's the case, that's a very doucebaggy thing to say.

But if that's the case, then we should have been ahead of the curve.

We should have believed in Florida State before everyone else did, and we didn't at least enough.

My thought on them was, even if Mike got all the moves, even if he hired right, even if he portled right, surely it's not all going to take root and blossom in week one.

Surely it'll take to the quarter pole of the season at least.

Nope, they were ready in week one.

That game against Alabama, think's the biggest win of his career.

I even think it's bigger than the ACC Championship game win, only because he wasn't in desperation must win mode to save his job then and he was the other day.

Not that that outcome singularly would have cost him his job, but that could have gone off the rails in the season, could have gone off the rails, and you don't get to have two seasons in a row off the rails at Florida State.

So we saw what happened.

He ended up winning, They ended up winning.

The context that that game's going to provide down the road.

Think about it both ways, so it's like a four way go potential here It's like betting two team seven point NFL teasers back in the day before the books banned them.

Alabama could be terrible, and we look back and we say, Florida State win.

That wasn't all that was cracked up to be.

Alabama could be really good, and we say, boy, Florida State got that win and we didn't even know how impressive it was.

Alabama think about them, they could end up being really good, and in retrospect find out, Yeah, they lost by a couple of possessions on the road, but Florida State's sitting here ten and oh midway through November.

But it turns out that that was just perfect storm situation that Alabama found themselves in that game is going to provide a lot more context down the road.

But yeah, one hundred percent wrong on FSU to start the season, one hundred and fifty percent wrong on Alabama to start the season.

And it hurt because out of the two opponents in that matchup, the team's in that matchup, one of them was predicted to win the national championship by someone on this set.

And I don't want to narrow it down to hoopst exactly, but someone on this show.

Oh, probably the dude whose name's behind me here predicted Alabama to win it all.

Mathematically, I'm happy to report tonight Alabama is still alive in the SEC Championship race and the College Football playoff race.

What are you going to do?

Argue with math?

You can't argue with math.

Arguing with math is a fool's Errand so Alabama's mathematically still alive.

So my prediction has not gone up in smoke yet.

Now, as far as the eyeballs go, it's not looking good.

Not looking good, and it didn't look like anything I expected.

So I don't want to go down a laundry list here.

We're going to talk about this later in the show.

I'm gonna answer a viewer question about Alabama.

It would be a lot quicker for me to talk about what I was right about when it comes to Alabama expectation and what I was wrong about.

Does it hurt?

Yes?

Am I fully ready to own it?

Nope?

So are we gonna skip merrily along and save this for later in the show?

Absolutely, Clemson.

Curious case here.

Clemson, on one hand, I expected them to beat LSU.

They didn't, so I was wrong there.

On the other hand, unless you was a good team, that one could have gone either way.

I didn't better die on it.

That one could have gone either way.

Of more concern to me is through one game, how much of the LSU twenty twenty four profile the Clemson twenty twenty five team may have because they ran it for I don't know, less than three yards per carry, less than two yards per carrey the other night.

And if it won't always be that bad, but if they can't run the ball, which maybe I underestimated as a problem.

I knew they didn't have MafA anymore, but I didn't know it was going to be that bad.

So if it really is that bad or anywhere remotely close to that bad, they're gonna ask kid Clubnick to do too much.

And I will maintain the same stance I have maintained with him and a couple of these other dudes who are high a board or high atop these draft boards and whatnot.

They are who they are.

They may just be who they are, and if you ask them to do something within their ability range, good, they'll do it, probably.

But if you ask them to exceed that of their ability range, they're gonna disappoint you.

And then you're gonna call them a bust instead of blaming yourself for having outsized expectations.

And if anyone thinks kid Clubnik can overcome a poor ground game and lead clums into any kind of national championship hunt, I think you're wrong, and I didn't.

It's not like I picked him to win the national title.

But if anything, if I was wrong about Clemson, it could be even I slightly missed how much they may struggle running the ball this year.

I knew they may struggle.

I think I may have underestimated to struggle a little bit.

Tennessee is the last one.

Tennessee.

I think I may be off on them.

I think I looked at that game against Syracuse, and they had some turnovers early, they pulled out to a big lead.

Five sacks, seven tackles for loss they recorded, And that wasn't even what stood out to me the most.

What stood out to me the most is when I finally got to watch the game Sunday, offensive line looked incredible, to the point where you almost find yourself having to pump the brakes.

You find yourself having to say, Josh, it's just Syracuse.

Don't get carried away, and then you watch another play and they drive block a guys seven yards downfield, and you're like, oh, and then you start fanning yourself a little bit, and you start saying, though this defense looks familiar, that offensive line is not the offensive line I feared they'd have.

Boy, this quarterback looks like he's been playing for Hypel for seven years.

Just things I didn't think I would say.

I didn't think they'd lose to Syracuse.

I didn't think they'd clicked that way against Syrahcuse.

So be careful.

I have to tell myself this multiple times at this time of year.

Be careful.

It's one game.

It is one out of twelve samples that we're gonna get to these teams.

However, if that offensive line really is remotely that good, if Joey Agilar really does that seamlessly fit into Josh Hypel's system, and if that defense really didn't take that much of a step back, that's the biggest potential mover That fundamentally changes the SEC picture.

Because see Tennessee's got a workable schedule.

They got Georgia coming to them in two weeks, by the way, that is a fundamental game changer.

In the SEC because if those elements of Tennessee are there, I'm going to whisper this because it's only one week.

Tennessee's an SEC championship contending type team instead of one that is in a cycling year, like a reload year.

We'll get them in twenty twenty six, which is how I viewed them preseason.

Them in Michigan.

I kind of viewed the same way, not falling off a cliff.

Twenty twenty five, kind of a reset, get ready for twenty twenty six.

Maybe they will be that.

But oh, they looked impressive, more impressive at least than I thought.

Now, if you're a detractor of Tennessee, I get that you're armed with the whole.

Yeah, but it was Syracuse bullet in your chamber.

Fire it.

That's fine, And I don't think they're gonna knock anyone on their ear this week.

But they got Georgia coming in there in two weeks, and they hadn't beaten them in a long time.

They hadn't sit consistently beating them in a long time, at least I don't know what the last time they beat him was.

But that is their shot.

That's their shot at everyone circle in Georgia.

It's almost like I should have picked Georgia to win the sec Paper Pop because we got something really, really substantial that's about to happen on the show.

So as you know Quick Trip Fuels there, there are Quick Trip Fuels the fault don't lie tour well, if you're new around here, maybe you don't know that.

So we go on a tour every Saturday in the fall and Quick Trip fuels it.

Thank you.

Quick Trip also has cold brew on tap, great delicious snacks inside, the best gasoline, I would say, in America, if not the world outside.

And we announced the other night, as we do every Sunday, the destination for this week's tour stop.

And as you may have heard, we're going back to the great state of Oklahoma, one of my favorite towns to visit, Norman, Oklahoma.

We love the people there.

As soon as I announced it, Jokistiglione hit me up.

Then let me know what you need, and I said, a spare bedroom breakfast.

I didn't.

I don't ask him those things because he will say yes, so I cannot ask him to do those things for me.

Anyway, We are going to Michigan against Oklahoma.

But then I was sitting there the other night, to you, when you go to bed, you actually go to sleep.

I went to bed, and I stared at the ceiling and had a full blown crisis of conscience.

And I thought to myself, as the voices started started getting louder in my head, is that the best we can do?

That game's at seven thirty Eastern time, six thirty Central time, and we're going to be sitting there all day with nothing to do except tailgate.

Could we put our time to better use?

You know, we've always had a dream around here.

If you've watched the show for a long time, I've had a long standing dream that if we ever got the opportunity to have access to certain things, that we would take full advantage of it.

Well, we have access to certain things now, and so you better believe I'm gonna take full advantage of it.

So that game's kicking off at six thirty, I'm just telling you that's not the only game we're going to Saturday.

So as of tonight, I'm confirming that for the first time ever, The Fall Don't Lie to Her will make two stops Saturday, and we will begin the day in ames, Iowa, for Iowa at Iowa State.

That's an eleven am kickoff.

I have been to this game once.

It was me and Ashton Kutcher standing next to each other on the sideline.

What a sentence to come out of one's mouth.

We're doing that game early.

Then we'll head down to Norman and we'll do Michigan Oklahoma later in the day again.

I will wear the same clothes every day.

I don't care.

I will eat the same lunch every day.

I don't care.

We don't really waste resources around here, but I always told you if we ever get the opportunity, if we ever get our hands on the right keys, we're using them.

So we're using them for the betterment of college football.

We're using them two games Saturday.

Who's to the fund it right?

Thank you, quick trip.

Let's continue in the interest of talking about one of the games that we will be at.

Oh, I need to press send on something.

Hold on just a second, h there we go.

Okay, who would a big game Saturday?

Michigan at Oklahoma seven thirty Eastern kickoff a b C.

Let me set the table for you here.

Michigan has won thirteen straight night games.

Why do we even continue with the preview, John Mattire.

That's why we continue with the preview.

We may look back on this when you know this quarterback matchup.

I'm not big on doing the matchups of guys that won't be on the field at the same time, except that that's the marquee, you know.

That's how that's like the headliner.

We got John Mattier, We got Bryce Underwood here, and Underwood looked pretty good last week.

He looked better than I thought he'd look, and I have high expectations for him.

Now.

Yes, yes, I hear you in the back.

You said what it was who it was New Mexico.

Okay, I got you, Thank you.

I didn't know who they played.

I appreciate that though, yes it was New Mexico.

He looked good.

So what does this game look like three or four years from now when we look back on it.

We got John Mattire and we got Bryce Underwood.

I think it will be very notable.

It's already notable to me.

But I think just the general casual fan will even look back and say, man, you look at the history books, whoa these guys were on the field at the same time.

Well, they played in the same game.

Yes, we have a theory around here number one that this is a huge pressure spot for Brent Vinnables.

That's not a theory, that's fact.

But let me tell you about a theory we have.

It is crowbar theory.

We have several different theories and philosophies we teach at Peyton State, and one of them is the crowbar theory.

The crowbar theory goes something like this, there is a certain caliber of defense that when it faces a one dimensional offense, i e.

An offense that is having real, real trouble running the ball, but it's okay cause their quarterbacks a gunslinger.

So if they can rush it for fifty six yards, but he'll throw it for four to ten.

When a good to great defense faces that kind of offense, they have the ability to put a crowbar in the bicycle spokes.

If you've ever ridden a bicycle, you know that you can do one of two things to stop.

It can hit the brakes, at which point it slows down gradually, or you can throw something in the spokes and it stops immediately.

You go flying over the handlebars.

Face street pizza looks terrible.

It takes weeks to heal point being if you can't run the ball and you face a high level defense, they can shut you down.

So you're sitting there thinking to yourself, Oh, let's say we're averaging thirty five points per game.

Well, even if we face that defense and they really get a handle on us O, we'll still score twenty eight.

Nope.

No.

Crowbar theory is you go from scoring thirty five a game to here we go into the fourth quarter, We've got nine on the board.

How has this happened?

Crowbar theory is how it's happened.

My question is, can Michigan crowbar Oklahoma?

Last week?

I was very unimpressed with how effectively Oklahoma ran the ball.

Now, I will grant you it was Illinois State these We're still early in the season, so a lot of teams played a lot of inferior competition last week.

Jadan Ott didn't play last week tailbag for Oklahoma.

I don't know how many snaps I'm gonna get out of him this week.

Could be one, could be twenty five.

I have no idea, nor do my Oklahoma buddies.

They are guessing anything and everything in between.

But it's a prove it week for this offensive line.

And this is about as good a test as you'll get all year a Michigan.

The names continue to churn, but the defensive profile, the identity remains the same.

And if you can't get balanced, if you can at least keep them convinced that you're committed to running the ball, even if you don't run it for two twenty and six yards per carry.

No one is even under the illusion you're gonna do that.

But if you can't maintain that, I'm as high as John I'm as high on Jometier as anyone in the country.

I may be higher on him than his parents are.

I picked him to win the Heisman.

It is foolish to think he's just gonna sling it all over Michigan.

That's foolish.

And if he does it, wonderful, and I'll take credit because I do have a Heisman ticket.

But I don't expect that.

So crowbar theory is in play here.

Please don't let it happen.

This is a baptism in the deep end for Bryce Underwood.

Bryce Underwood has I don't want to use the word transcendent, I don't want to use the word generational.

He has a ton of talent, but he is a true freshman quarterback starting on the road in Norman, Oklahoma against Brenton Venables.

That recipe doesn't sound good, and for ninety nine percent of quarterbacks it wouldn't be good.

Is he a one percenter?

He actually he may be.

So he's got a shot to just do some stuff that is not supposed to be done every now and then every five years or so.

You get a talent like that through the sport where you look at it and you say, Leonora Sellers does that kind of stuff.

He does stuff where you say, what do you even do?

You just got to tip your cap to him.

Now, Justice Haines could be very instrumental here.

Obviously tailback transfer from Alabama for those uninitiated, he could be a big player here.

But look, I actually don't think rushing yardage is the most important aspect of this game for Michigan because there's a world where they could run it for two hundred yards and lose the game.

Penn State Ohio State vibes in other words, it's great if you do run it for two hundred I strongly advise it if you can do it.

But their wide receivers are going to have to step up, because there's a world where Michigan just runs the ball, not at will, but they run it at a pretty good clip between the twenties.

And then the field gets compressed down in the red area where Brent Venables shines anyway, and you have to settle for threes or he gets you in third and along and then you make ill advised throws and he turns you over and you're looking at the box score saying, boy, we've outgained him.

Man, we're running the ball five point two yards per carry.

What's happening, Well, what's happening is you're doing that in a wide open field, and when the field's not wide open anymore, they're stoning you.

The total in this game's fascinating because of that.

There's crowbar theory two ways in this So the running game I think will be there to some extent from Michigan, But tight ends are their best threat catching the ball as far as I thought pre season, and it's well within their right to prove me wrong.

But I think because of the two dynamics that I just talked about, I think quarterback mistakes are going to go a long way into siding this game.

I think it could.

It could honestly be the padlock stat.

Quarterback mistakes could be the padlock stat in this game because there is a chance that neither run game finds a ton of consistency.

Michigan was under three yards per carry last week absent two explosive runs.

Now those explosive runs count, and if you got him against New Mexico, maybe you can get him against Oklahoma.

But if they limit the explosive run, Michigan didn't light the world on fire yards per carry on the ground last week, nor did Oklahoma.

Both of them are facing way better run defenses this week than they did last week, which means, what if both ground games get stifled and we got one guy and John mattiir facing a way higher caliber competition than he's ever faced, biggest game of his life, and we got Bryce obviously a true freshman on the road against Brent Venable's biggest game of his career by ten miles.

That is a situation right for quarterback mistakes to decide a game wide.

Receiver rooms I think have a decided edge to Oklahoma here is just can Michigan profile the game in such a way where they look and say, hey, Remember all those years Ohio State had the wide receiver edge.

Remember all those years it didn't matter.

They could profile the game that way.

So let's take a look at what the model thinks right now.

FanDuel has Oklahoma minus five and a half.

Model completely agrees we've got Oklahoma minus five.

Man, I could paint this thing either way.

I think it's going to be a very very tight game, and in that kind of game, I lean Oklahoma.

I have liked Oklahoma in the game for a while.

The more I look at it, though, and how much newness and how much uncertainty there is, I think it's going to be really, really tough to peg this one.

So I'm going Oklahoma to win.

But anything over three I am taking Michigan and the I'm not betting on this game, at least I'm not betting the side.

I do have a little feel about the total, which we'll talk about in the Roman Nodile Express a little bit later.

They're watching us in Bainbridge, Georgia, Reno, Nevada, Lubbock, Texas.

I also want to quickly say thank you to everyone watching live.

You know, we had our most watched show ever the other day, So I appreciate that a lot of you subscribe.

You had like two thousand subs per day.

Keep that rolling.

It's a free show.

I ask you to do that before this next segment.

There are some segments that I wish we could skip on certain nights.

This is one of them, but that would be unethical.

Plus people have paid for it.

So here we go, Bradley, you can go ahead and start the VOD here for post production purposes.

Week two edition of the JP Pole is here.

I'm gonna remind you once more, and I've got to take on a very series tone here because we're about to do some controversial things.

Some say the most controversial ratings of the modern era about to drop.

Rankings are great.

The AP has rankings, the Coaches Poll has rankings.

A million different writers release their own rankings.

That's wonderful.

I choose not to because there's already plenty of them out there, and most of them look the same.

What I've always been fascinated by is the more predictive model, which means I really love what odds makers think on a game, and not to say that that's merit based, it's not.

You're going to see many instances one very notable instance in tonight's numbers of a team that's lost to another team and is still power rated above that team.

Well, in rankings world, that makes no sense.

In rankings world, the results on the field have to matter first and foremost.

They have to matter.

So in rankings world, my numbers would look a lot different than Power ratings World.

Power ratings World couldn't care less about any of It doesn't care about the comferenu're in, doesn't care about the color of your jersey.

All it cares about is out of the two of you, who would be favored on a neutral field tomorrow according to our own numbers.

And that's the order that we put the teams in.

If you ask me, well, why would you do it that way?

Why even play the games to determine a winner?

But yeah, but you're not honoring the team that won by placing them above the other team.

Well, friend, would that other team be favored if they played Saturday?

Well?

No, but no, there's no butt, that's it.

Well, why would you value that?

Because I happen to care about it.

If you don't value it, maybe it's just not for you.

It's just a tool.

Immunity it's just a fun tool that we use to kind of give another angle on teams.

Okay, so with that in mind, I'm gonna go randomized.

But for those of you who do require the visual, for those of you who are visual learners, right right there, these are not rankings.

If there's nothing you take away from this tonight other than that, these are not rankings, all right, here we go USC.

We've got at number sixteen.

USC has not changed all that much.

USC is not ranked in the top twenty five of the A people.

So we continue to have the jpeopole much higher on USC than the apeopole, although one is merit based and the other one is not.

Let's go with Florida, Florida.

We have gotten number eight.

They played who Long Island in week one.

Not a lot to take from that one.

Florida remains virtually unchanged.

Okay, here we go Rubber Meat Road, Ohio State.

Jppole has Ohio State at number two.

Still so not a lot changed there.

Again, this is neutral field favorability.

Utah is the biggest mover that we have this week.

Utah is up eight spots.

Utah we have number fourteen in the jpopole, So we have them not only as the top rated team in the Big twelve, will separate couple of points separation between them and the next highest team.

They're the only Big twelve team I think in the top twenty.

We'll check that as we go on.

Next up LSU.

LSU's a big mover.

LSU goes to number five.

That's up seven spots.

They were twelve coming in.

I told you I thought I may be in retrospect wrong about LSU.

Well, the JP pole looked and said, hold my ZBA JP poll number five with LSU, let's continue Clemson.

Did they drop?

Did they drop?

No?

They did not.

Clemson is still at number nine.

Again people, again, I don't even know what the AP had Clemson at.

But again power ratings world.

Before we talk about who should drop, remember, are there more than nine teams that Clemson would be a dog against on a neutral field?

I don't think so.

They've played one team.

That team right there, LSU.

So LSU's ahead of them.

It makes a lot of sense.

Actually, even in a merit based like AP rating, Uh, Michigan, where's Michigan at?

They've got to be in the top twenty nineteen.

So Michigan's right there, and they're going on the road to play Oklahoma.

We don't know where Oklahoma is yet, but I have a sneaking suspicion they may be Power rating.

Ole Miss got a sleepy start to the season, played Georgia State the other night.

Not a lot to go on with them.

Ole Miss is number seventeen.

Here's Penn State.

I think there were number two in the AP today Penn State is number four.

There's not a lot of movement here at the very top aside from one team, which we'll get to.

Penn State is still number four.

Okay, this may be controversial.

Put Texas up.

So JP poll has Texas still at number one.

We hit up, we hit up our sources to make sure that this is true.

Texas would be favored neutral fielding its Ohio State right now.

You would be free to go bet Ohio State.

I'm not sitting here telling you which side I would take.

Candidly, I think I take Ohio State.

I would absolutely rank Ohio State number one in the country right now.

Power ratings wise model still gives a slight edge netral Field to Texas.

Think of that what you will personally, I don't have to agree with the model.

We all know the model's been in the tank for Texas for years.

That is well established on this show, so it's no surprise.

Here's the one folks are waiting on.

Alabama is number twelve.

Alabama dropped seven spots, and I'm going to get to something in just a second.

I'm oh, sorry, sorry about that, Tyler.

Georgia number three.

So Georgia's number three.

That's unchanged, all right.

Bama dropped to number twelve, so they dropped seven spots.

I feel the need to explain this, but I want to wait for just a second because I want to give you a little comparative analysis.

So hold on on the Alabama part.

South Carolina is number eighteen, pretty much where they were last week.

I think, look, I'm not low on South Carolina.

We need to hold on just a second.

Okay, they needed special team scores to pull away from Virginia Tech.

So that's good.

They won the game.

They didn't light the world on fire, so just be careful overly inflating them right now.

Tennessee is up number fifteen, and I gotta be honest with you, Tennessee may still be a little low to me.

I still think the model may need to come around a little bit more on Tennessee.

But the model does know it was just Syracuse.

See you hear that model trash talking Tennessee, not me.

Oregon is number six and a four touchdown favorite against suddenly poverty stricken Mike Gundy this week.

That could be a bloodbath here we go.

I didn't think I would say this, but as of week two, Florida State has entered the JP pole at number twenty.

This is where we really find out who our rider dies are.

We really find out who understands what we're doing around here.

Canal has been a lost cause for years.

I don't care what he tweets about this.

Knowing the premise of this neutral field favorability Labama's at twelve, FSU is at twenty before I give you the information I have here, how many of you have a problem with that?

Not from a rankings perspective, there's no prayer I would rank Alabama above Florida State if I had an AP poll today, But in power rating in neutral field favorability terms, how many of you think even that's flawed?

Even having Bama above Florida State by eight spots in power ratings is flawed.

Now, as you say that, I want you to know something.

I hit up our friends at FanDuel because we have access to this from them, and I said, Hey, I'm gonna take some heat tonight.

I need to come loaded for bear.

I need you to tell me if that game happens again in Atlanta tomorrow, neutral field, Alabama Florida State, what is the number?

What is the line?

What do you think it would be?

You're running the sports book right now, what do you think it would be?

What would you hang as the number?

Alabama would be an eight and a half point favorite against Florida State, neutral field tomorrow.

So this is correct.

There's no arguing it.

It's correct.

It's either whether you understand the methodology or not.

Now again, you'd be free to bet Florida State once they hung the number.

Many of you probably would.

I may be there in line with you, but it is a one hundred percent stone cold fact.

Not only would Bama be favored there, that'd probably be a slight favorite in Tallahassee if they played again.

I actually don't know that people fully understand how big an adjustment that that is making to these teams off of a one game result, albeit a head to head result.

So we got Bama there, we got South Carolina, Tennessee, Oregon, FSU.

Where's Notre Dame?

Got Notre Dame at number seven?

They didn't drop, really they We still got them ahead of the team they played the other day.

I'll explain it in just second.

Oklahoma, where do we have them?

Number ten?

All right, so we got Oklahoma number ten hosting number nineteen Michigan this Saturday.

Now that means model has Oklahoma favored by five over Michigan if you account for let's say roughly three points for home field.

That's the model indicating Ou is about two points better than Michigan, which just lets you know how compressed these numbers are.

That implies a two point gap between number ten and number nineteen.

That is accurate.

So a lot of these teams are compressed.

Right now, let us continue Texas A and m number thirteen, and we got Miami at number eleven.

For the record, model would favor Notre Dame over Miami on a neutral field if they played today.

Model looks at that result the other night.

And while you may say, oh, that's cause to rank Miami above Notre dame, I would too.

Model looks at it and says, the team that was starting a new quarterback on the road finished minus two turnovers and lost by three.

If you value turnovers, I think, what do we have, like like two and three quarter points per turnover something like that.

I can't remember what the number is, anyway, it implies an even turnover game.

Notre name slight favorite.

It's boring math stuff.

Point being takes more than one result like that head to head to invert power ratings.

So Nebraska is not here.

Nebraska's twenty one, Auburn's twenty two.

And as I said, you know I could run these numbers for a lot of teams.

I knew we were gonna get a lot of pushback on the whole Alabama Florida state thing, just like I saw when ESPN released the FPI the other day.

Some people just don't know what it is.

Like some people will see this graphic, they won't know what it is, and they'll think it's rankings, and they'll think it's clickbait.

I don't know what I want them to click on, but they'll think it's clickbait.

There will be other people who know what this is and they are intentionally dishonest about it.

And those are the ones you gotta watch out for.

You gotta watch out for them.

So there you go.

That's the JP pole right now, immunity.

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We appreciate them, all right, Let's give me that.

Give me that question, since I know a lot of people are going to be talking about this anyway.

Kyle Perdue, not Kyle from Purdue.

Hit me up from Norman Oklahoma.

He said, why are so many people so surprised about Alabama?

Wasn't this what we saw from them against Oklahoma last year?

No, you talking about the Florida State game.

No, that's not what you saw against Oklahoma last year.

Those examples could not be any more different against Oklahoma.

To remind everyone, BAMA went in there and got blown out on the scoreboard against Oklahoma, and BAMA got smoked again the other day on the road against Florida State.

That's about where the similarities end in those games.

I'm not sure Kyle, that we watched the same Oklahoma game.

That was just Jaln Milroe given the ball to the other team.

It was turnovers.

There was zero point at any time during the Alabama Oklahoma game last year where I said, oh, man, I questioned the effort, man, I just I questioned the passion of some of those guys.

There was no point where I said that, I said, boy, turnovers will kill you.

That was it.

That's not the first time, nor is it last time you'll see turnovers by the team that's playing hard.

It wasn't turnovers that were the issue the other day against Florida State.

It was some stuff that's far more true bubbling.

So we had a lot of questions, obviously, like thousands of them in the inbox, a few of them about Alabama.

The most common is can they get it corrected?

I'm very conflicted on this.

Can they get it corrected?

Well?

By my vantage point, when you say can Bama get it corrected, I'm hearing you say, can they still compete for the SEC championship?

Can they still compete for a national championship.

I've got serious doubts about that, but I will grant you there is a non zero chance that, yeah, they can get it all corrected.

Because there's a non zero chance, non zero meaning the percentage is small to me, but it's not zero, So you have to acknowledge that it's real.

There is a chance that those injuries just mattered a whole lot more.

Tim Keenan missing off the interior of the defensive line, Jam Miller missing from a ground game that they once again abandoned, which was all too familiar a theme last year.

Yeah, there's a chance that those injuries just really mattered a lot more.

There's a chance Florida State's great team and no one knew it yet.

That's why I keep talking about the future providing way more context for this game than we have right now, because if we get to if we get to November and FSU's heading towards an eight and four season, it's a lot different than man FSU's heading towards an eleven in one season.

They're going to Charlotte playing for the ACC title.

In retrospect, it wasn't the worst thing in the world to get beat by him in Week one on the road ambush style before anyone knew what they had.

Don't know what the context is going to be, but I saw our buddies' college football nerds say this, and this is once again, if you're a Bama fan out there looking for hope, you know you're looking for stuff that's correctable.

Frankly, some of the stuff I saw, I don't know that it's correctable, but maybe I'm wrong.

They said it's hard to look physical and when you're not in the right hole.

Well that's true, that's true, and for their sake, I kind of hope that's the reality.

Just misalignment, poor fundamentals.

Now, these are not good things, but it's far more preferable to fundamental like terminal issues like guys don't care enough, guys loaf too much energy, buy in effort, you know, these sorts of things.

I'd much rather you just be in the wrong hole, because I can coach you there in one frame.

I can't coach you in the other frame, at least during the season, I can't.

What could they show Saturday?

Someone else asked, what could they show us?

What could they show me as a thirty seven and a half point favorite against Uell Monroe?

Not nothing.

They couldn't show me anything to change my mind on that.

In fact, the kind of team whose heart I question and whose heart gets exposed against Florida State is the same kind of team that really flexes on inferior opponents.

So even if I'm right about my reasons to doubt Alabama, oh, I think they'll go crazy against Uel Monroe, because that's the kind of team you can do that against.

So there's nothing they can show me Saturday.

Certainly it could go bad, but there's nothing, you know, redeemable that I would look at from that result and say, oh, everything's fixed.

That's impossible to draw from Saturday.

But yeah, there is a chance, there's absolutely a chance.

I know the folks in that building.

It's not that they don't care.

It's not that they don't work hard.

I keep on going back to having seen this team practice, and one of the other questions that has been asked the most, what about what you said you saw at practice.

Well I didn't tell you a lot of what I saw.

I spoke generically, but I did say that's about as hard a hitting practice as I've ever been at.

That defense flew around at that practice.

Well I didn't imagine that.

And I'm not standing there alone watching that.

I got other very very veteran football minded people.

They're watching it with me, echoing the same cinema.

Well, they're not watching ghosts.

It's just that the consistency in performance has to be there.

So, you know, I hate what their sideline felt like the other day.

I hated how shell shocked they look consistently outside the LSU game last year.

How this team is performed on the road the last two years is disappointing.

But is there a world where it's corrected.

Absolutely, it's a really talented team.

Yeah, absolutely, there's a world where it's corrected.

That's still a really high caliber coaching staff.

I think sure, there's a world where it's corrected.

Is there a world where I can fully trust them?

No, I don't think so.

I don't think so.

So I'll have that in the back of my mind for the rest of this year.

I'll be hesitant for the rest of this year.

I'm sure i'll pick Bama to win games.

They'll win some.

I'll be hesitant because I'll always know, especially when they go on the road, I'll always know in the back of my mind that Florida State result was not fake.

It really happened, And if someone was guilty of exhibiting that on tape one time, could happen again.

So yeah, I could get corrected though the end of the world.

It's not the end of the season.

They could absolutely rebound.

And let me tell you something, it's not just Bama.

There are some teams out there that are going to get pantsed like that.

You just don't know it yet because they didn't play good competition in Week one.

So there's some posers out there that are masquerading as contenders because they were favored by forty in week one.

So in some ways, if you're gonna get exposed, you want to do it in Week one.

If you're gonna get it corrected.

Now, there's no guarantee it gets corrected, is my point.

Everyone wants to believe.

Once you've seen a poor result, oh that's the bottom.

Okay, so that's the floor.

Now let's see how quickly we can climb up.

How do you know you need to even stand to climb?

How do you know that Florida State thought that last year?

Florida State came home from that Georgia Tech game and said, all right, let's regroup, let's get it fixed, let's get to work.

There was no fixing it.

I don't think Alabama's going to suffer that same fate to that degree.

But there's no guarantee.

You know, for all the optimism and hope that you have on one side of the coin, you do have to acknowledge the darker underbelly the other side of that coin.

That's also a possibility.

And that possibility is that the result you saw against fs US not the last time you'll see that.

That's the trust factor that I'm struggling with right now.

There was another game last night, you know, Labor Day, Labor Day weekend we have when we have Thursday games, Friday game Saturday, Sunday, Monday, just college football.

I don't know why we don't do it every week.

The NFL insists on existing, though, and I'm told they do pretty good numbers, so whatever.

All right, So Bill Belichick makes his debut last night and North Carolina takes the field.

What a spectacle, What a circus that was.

It looked beautiful right at sunset and all the fireworks and everything.

It looked great.

As is sometimes the case in this sport, there's great build up to the game, great pageantry and pomp and circumstance.

Words I never understood going together, even though I just said them.

Unfortunately, kickoff had to happen, and what we got dropped in our laps is a good old fashioned TVMA special.

Because North Carolina got out gained by three twenty.

They allowed twenty nine first downs in September.

No, in this game, they were one of ten on third down themselves.

They got outrushed two fifty eight to fifty.

They also gave up two defensive touchdowns.

And the best compliment I can give is they kept TCU under fifty because I think any of us who watched the thing throughout the duration, no, it could have gotten a whole lot worse.

And there was I can't remember who said it.

There was a quote I saw last night about some of the anonymous quotes.

It may have been Marcelo, it usually is.

I think Marcelo quoted an anonymous coach talking about their goal for not so gently welcoming Bill Belichick into the acc Everybody wants to run it up.

TCU is not even in the conference, and they wanted to run it up.

You think you're sick of watching the hype bubble build around Bill Belichick.

You're not close to us sick of it as coaches in college football who kept getting told for four or five months, well Belichick's here now.

Many guys won Super Bowls.

Imagine what he can do in college.

They look at it and say, great, okay, you could be You could have the most expansive English language imaginable.

This is Portugal.

Can you speak Portuguese?

One game sample size?

They're struggling.

They need Muzzy, they need hooked on Phonics Portuguese edition.

Yeah.

TVMA specials we hate to do it around here.

We hate to do it's a kid friendly show.

We hate to do the TVMA special Sometimes we got to do it all right back to normal.

The circus fascinated me around this, the circus around Bill Belichick's arrival in college football kind of fascinated me.

I don't know if you experienced this sometimes where there's this big hype bubble around something and it doesn't make sense to you.

I know why Bill Belichick's a big deal.

I've watched football all my life, just like you guys have.

He has been a presence in my sporting life, my entire life.

He's been around as long as I've been alive.

I got immense amounts of respect for what the guy's done in the NFL.

But when he came and took the North Carolina job, it was just fascinating to so many people.

And I looked at it as another hire, and maybe I'm way off base here.

I got it.

When Dion Sanders got hired a Colorado, I got it.

I was all in on it.

That was a circus, a good kind of circus.

That was helicopters coming from all directions and Marquee spotlight.

It is Dion Sanders coaching in major college football and his son's going to be his quarterback, and what Travis Hunter's coming with him, and you got celet Is all over the place and everybody's fixated on Boulder, Colorado.

All of a sudden, I understood that I didn't understand the chapel Bill stuff.

I still don't, and maybe I'm just missing the boat on it.

But then they had such build up to the game, full game day treatment.

We had Herbstreet and his dog, Anne Rhys Davis three man booth last night, and it's just a blowout, and so I get I don't know.

It just never gripped me.

I watched it because it was a college football game, but the spectacle around the Bill Belichick thing, it never gripped me.

And I don't think it's gonna work.

But I will say this to try and maintain intellectual honesty.

We could have taken the time on the show tonight and say, see, I told you so well.

Last night doesn't prove anything other than it's really hard to put a team together and get ready to play major college football in one year.

I don't think it's gonna work out for Belichick in North Carolina.

Last night's not proof of that.

Because even if I did think it was gonna work out for you're one whatn't gonna be when it works out.

My stance on this, and I don't want to get lost in the smoke.

There's a lot of it.

Everyone's got a take on this.

My stance on Belichick is very, very consistent.

You've got to define your expectations.

You got to define your expectations before you ask me, do you think it's gonna work out.

I've done several radio interviews on this.

People have asked me, is it gonna work out?

Is Belichick gonna work out North Carolina?

And people keep getting mad because I'm asking questions during my own appearances.

But I gotta know, what do you mean workout?

Wipe all the smoke out of the room.

Just stick to logic here for a second.

Belichick gets hired at North Carolina.

Perennially, this has been somewhere like a seven seven and a half win maybe eight win on average program, even when it's going right.

That's kind of what they've been.

What do you expect from him?

If your expectation, as you pay him eight figures per year, is to do that, Yeah, it'll work out.

I do think it'll work out by my estimation, when you're paying him what you're paying him and he's getting the attention he's getting.

He's getting that attention because the expectation is he'll do more at North Carolina than his predecessors that I don't believe will be a reality last night, notwithstanding, Okay, they could have taken TCU to the wire last night, they could have beaten them by three.

It would have been fascinating, but the line on the game was three and a half, so it wouldn't be this monumental upset or anything like that.

But I'd maintain the same stance tonight.

If anything, they may have their best shot in year one, because yeah, while the roster talent should get better next year, they'll never have a schedule that's workable, so there is a little trade off there.

But what's the expectation.

That's all I want to know.

If your expectation is he's going to compete and be a fringe playoff contender, I think you're wrong.

I don't think he will ever reach that status at North Carolina because I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding still of how different college football is to the NFL, and a lot of what succeeded and what you were able to do in the NFL that can't translate to college football.

You can't lock guys in the building all day, you can't draft them.

They've got to choose you.

And that means if you're going to be a playoff caliber program, by the way, not seven or eight wins, You can't be taking everyone's backup options.

You got to go head to head and recruiting with Clemson.

You've got to beat Florida for a kid.

You got to beat Miami for a kid every now and then.

Can you do that?

Oh yeah, we can spend, so can they, And they got results to back it up.

And you can talk about how you have won Super Bowls.

Have you ever developed college football players to go play in the NFL?

No, you haven't, and you're doing it for the first time in your seventies.

The stat we threw around the other day Belichick's older than any three of his players combined.

That's not agism, that's not me taking a shot at him.

I'm not smiling.

It is quite literally a fact that he is trying something new in his seventies.

Saban checked out at this age, and Saban had been doing it his whole life, and he looked at it and said, I don't know about this anymore.

Bill Belichick's just trying to figure it out now.

And so if you're going to be better than they've been, that means you've got to do more in talent acquisition than what they've done.

I don't know that they'll be able to do that.

That's my only hang up.

They get the players, they'll be fine.

If they get the players, they'll be fine.

Will they get the players to the degree they need to to be a playoff contender?

I don't know that.

Here's what I do know.

The show started at seven Central tonight at six point fifty two pm Central.

Alex who is a wizard with peatestatematerial dot com.

The merch store is blowing up.

She hit me with three new designs.

I didn't even have time to get it on the board.

Ward the ram Noodle Express collection, which by the way, won US money in Week one.

I want it to be known after a bad Week one last year, the ram Noodle Express won US money in week one.

We have new ramen Noodle Express shirts, I'm told in the store right now as of this hour at peytstatemterial dot com, I am buying some.

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That's how much I love them, Not to mention the Fall don't Lie collection.

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Now that we overhauled the store, we just add stuff to it like every day.

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So that's coming, Yes, for those of you who have asked, that's coming.

But peytstatematerial dot com you might want to head over there because there's some new selections that weren't available this morning.

All right, this is the easy part of the show.

Appreciate you guys watching live.

By the way, subscribe.

That's the sound when you subscribe, it's free and it makes that sound and you don't get signed up for anything, but it does help us.

The ap pole dropped today, you know, the week two edition.

They have to delay it a little bit because they got the Monday night game.

So here we go.

Let's take a look at what our friends in the AP decided to drop on us.

Ohio State is number one and Penn State's number two.

So there was some talk out there on the streets about LSU potentially being number one.

Well, LUs, you shouldn't be number one.

Ohio State just won a national title.

Now you know, I don't participate in rankings world, but if I did, of course, Ohio State's number one.

Stop trying to overthink the room on this.

LSU was ultra impressive.

That's why they're right there at number three.

If you want to put them at number two, okay, that'd be fine with me.

Ohio State's one.

There's not even a serious discussion to be had.

LSU three, Georgia four, Miami is five.

Now Here come the expectations with Miami because they are they are are legit.

I don't doubt that.

I didn't doubt that in the preseason.

There were just a few things I wanted to see about him.

Consistency in performance is going to be the key to their whole season, which it kind of is for everyone.

But remember last year they were so up and down, up and down.

I'm fascinated to see if that team can get this many flowers this early in the season and maintain consistency in performance.

And you know who else is fascinated to see that, Mario Christobauld Oregon six, Texas seven, Clemson eight.

Texas dropped to seven.

Huh, I guess it makes sense.

Okay, whatever, Clemson's eight.

Um hm, either I'd have Texas higher or Clemson lower.

I think notre Name's nine.

No problem with that.

They shouldn't drop a whole lot.

And South Carolina, South Carolina is they're at ten.

Okay.

I gotta remember this is not power ratings world.

These are rankings.

Okay, South Carolina at ten.

There better be some upward mobility, is all I'm saying.

Got to get that wide receiver room still figured out.

We got to be more dynamic pass catching.

We got to help the Norse sellers out.

Illinois is at eleven.

Do you know what Illinois does this week?

They go on the road to Duke.

That's a very underrated game.

They're a two and a half point favorite at Duke.

But I got no problem with the ranking.

I don't have a problem with Arizona State at twelve, Florida is at thirteen, and look at FSU at fourteen.

I may have them higher.

I think if I were ranking, I may have them higher.

This goes back to the whole logic of rankings, which I'll get to in a second.

Let's get to it now.

Okay, you know what.

No, I'll get to in a second because I want to get through this right quick.

Michigan's fifteen.

This note is fascinating.

Listen to this.

This is important.

This is very important.

I think this is from Chris Filika.

Florida, Florida State, and Miami are all ranked in the top fifteen for the first time since two thousand and six.

Preseason inexplicable.

Stat inexplicable.

But you know what, you can't do anything about the past.

The state of Florida, as I've told you a million times, is the key storyline in college football because if those programs collectively have their act together, therefore they keep more of their in state talent home.

Not only does it help them, but it impacts Ohio State and Clemson and Bama and Georgia and everyone else that's gone into South Florida and raided the talent pool.

You'll never totally cut it off, but you can severely limit the flow of in state talent out of state through one week, things look promising.

Got we got Iowa State sixteen, SMU seventeen.

All right, there's this glob of SEC teams that I promise you owe you A and m ole, Miss Bama, Tennessee.

Any of your power ratings out there are going to have that entire group of teams higher because the power ratings world is going to be disproportionately reliant on talent ratings, recruiting rankings, portal ratings.

You can decide what you think about that, but all of those teams would be a little higher in Indiana, Texas Tech.

Utah's too low at twenty five.

I don't think people watched them.

I don't think a lot of people watch them.

There's no way even if you're just ranking teams that you watched.

Utah the other night said yeah, I think they're twenty four teams better than them.

All right, I want to talk to you about the logic here right quick.

This is one of many reasons I don't participate in this.

So you either think of rankings one of two ways.

If you're an AP voter, you either do what some people do and you just rank based on body of work.

Or you set your preseason rankings and use that as your default.

Okay, here's what that means.

Florida State.

No one had them ranked in their preseason ranking.

Well, we just watched Florida State play a game and they dominated Alabama.

Now, if you're just going off the body of work and you didn't even acknowledge that rankings existed before you got results on the field, Florida State should be way higher than fourteen.

There aren't thirteen results more impressive than that.

So if you're going strictly off body of work, then they should be up there.

Well, if you're going off the fact that you had them unranked, then you're thinking to yourself, oh, man, I can't bump them all the way up into the top ten.

What am I going to do go from unranked to top ten?

Well, that's no way to think about this.

If you want to think that way, you might as well do power ratings like I do.

So it's always been stupid to me that people who do rankings adhere to their preseason predictions.

Who cares about your predictions?

I don't even care about mine once the season starts.

If you're ranking teams, you ought to go off the body of work.

Let me ask you this.

Georgia Tech's unranked?

Why Auburn's unranked?

Why USC is unranked?

Louisville TCU is unranked, Missouri is unranked?

South Florida beat Boise?

Why are they unranked?

Why is Nebraska unranked?

But Alabama is?

Alabama looked atrocious in week one?

Well they're still ranked, Josh, because they were preseason top ten.

If you're ranking teams, doesn't matter.

Hey, I got empower rated twelve.

But that's only because there aren't many teams still that would be favored against them on a neutral field, which is what power ratings are.

Rankings.

Bama shouldn't be ranked right now, and conversely, Auburn should, Georgia Tech should.

So this stuff's never made sense to me because I've never thought that people can make up their minds on what rankings really are.

A couple of game breakdowns, right quick?

We will be at this game?

How about this?

All right?

Big game coming up Saturday, high noon, Eastern time, Iowa at Iowa State.

We will be there.

The fall On Live Tour will roll into Ames, Iowa, and we'll be there on the sideline for this game.

You know, eleven of the last thirteen of these games have been decided by ten points or less.

Five of the last seven have been one possession games.

And might I offer you a pre padlock stat here?

Iowa is thirty three and one when scoring twenty one plus points since twenty twenty.

It seems like the padlock number in this game is two twenty one.

Who knows rocke'beck may go off they win twenty seven to twenty four, but Iowa usually is in a pretty good position if they can score twenty one.

What am I supposed to think about Iowa?

That's the question.

That's the whole preview to me.

Not to disrespect Iowa state, obviously I'd never do that.

But Mark Gronowski transfers there and everyone's confident that it's really about to overhaul the Iowa offense.

He was eight to fifteen for forty four yards passing in week one.

Now they did run it fifty three times for three hundred and ten, so they just did whatever it took to win the game.

Wonderful classic Kirk ference model there, very straightforward.

Not sure they're running it for three ten Saturday, So what do they have in the passing game?

Do they know something we don't.

Surely that balances out a little bit because Kansas State hit two explosive plays for touchdowns through the air against Iowa State, so it may be there if Iowa can take advantage of it.

They were one of sixteen to not have an explosive pass in Week one.

There are one hundred and thirty six of them.

Only six of them failed to record an explosive pass play.

Iowa was one of them.

They were one hundred and twenty six in that category last year.

So it could be more of the same situation, or who knows, maybe that transfer quarterback's got a little more than they showed in Week one.

Iowa State is going to score.

I have a little bit of confidence in saying that it's been two games.

Remember they've played two games.

Everyone else's played one highest points per game through two games.

It's twenty seventeen though, and these haven't been cupcakes.

One of them was a conference opponent in Kansas State.

I need wide receiver.

I need it.

Yeah, I know you just lost two of them in the NFL Draft.

Need some wide receivers to emerge.

The East Carolina transfer soul Will I believe is his name, needs to emerge three other top five pass catchers or tight ends.

Right now, hidden yardage is always key in this game.

You want to gain as many yards as you can.

It has not always mattered a whole lot here.

Frequently the team that gets out gained ends up winning turnovers, hidden yardage, field position, missed field goals, that sort of thing.

Until further notice, though, rock obect is the difference for me.

Rock obect over the Iowa run game.

Let's take a look at what the model thinks FanDuel right now.

Current line Iowa State minus two and a half.

The model has Iowa State minus two.

Have I have well a complete inability to be unbiased here, So I am going to go Iowa State to win and cover three point game, four point game, something like that.

This one was a classic last year, and I think it'll be really competitive again.

You're over under is forty one and a half on this game, by the way, going to be that kind of day.

Game could be over in two hours thirty minutes, like a Greg maddox special there.

But in ames Iowa on a football field.

Another game we need to break down right quick.

Rivalry back Kansas Missouri beautiful, they played this thing from nineteen team thirteen, I think until like twenty eleven, and then because college football does stupid stuff sometimes, it ceased that it's back two teams with answers at quarterback.

That's kind of how I see this.

Jalen Daniels look good, looked healthy so far.

That's refreshing.

And Bopribulah twenty three of twenty eight two hundred and eighty three yards, another sixty five on the ground.

Now they play Central Arkansas Week one, but that look good.

So huge rivalry game here.

I think quarterback run ends up being a huge edge here.

Maybe not for Kansas, though Jalen Daniels will get his okay to Kansas quarterback, he's very very good.

He's very good at designed runs, but he's very good at improvisation too, so he will He will first down you on a broken play about as well as anyone will in the country.

But I'll tell you that Kansas linebacker room is banged up right now, and their defensive front's good enough.

But on third down especially, I just think about Bo Prabulah's opportunity that he has with his legs.

Kansas, they got a limit explosive runs here, and I think he may have a few of them, and if Missouri wins, it wouldn't shot me it off.

That's the difference in this game.

I wonder, on the other side, how much does Jalen Daniels have to do because that offensive line's going on the road.

That Kansas offensive line is green.

I think Missouri's defensive line has a decided edge there.

Now, if I'm wrong, that fundamentally changes this game.

But I don't think I am, or obviously I wouldn't say it.

And Missouri's defense has plenty enough speed, much more speed than they Kansas have seen through the early early early portion of this season.

So Fresno and Wagner I believe they've played.

That's one thing.

Missouri's got a little different caliber of speed and athlete defensively, and so I worry that.

You know, if Jaylen Daniels has to shoulder the load, it's not quite enough.

And it's a big week for the Big Twelve, by the way.

You know, if you're thinking about out the opportunities that you get in out of conference games, this will be huge for them because Colorado didn't get it done against Georgia Tech.

Since he didn't get it done against Nebraska.

Baylor didn't get it done against Iowa, Utah did come through against UCLA.

But this weekend, you got this game, or you got Oklahoma State a four touchdown dog against Oregon.

Got Iowa Iowa State, you got Arizona State at Mississippi State, where apparently there's a casino on every corner in Startville.

I didn't know that Baylor SMU is this weekend.

So it's a big weekend for the Big twelve.

Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

Model sniffing something here that I'm not so.

Missouri is a six and a half point favorite at FanDuel right now.

The model that kind of likes Kansas to cover.

I disagree.

I don't like the linebacker injury situation right now, and I don't like the line of scrimmage mismatch that there may be Kuo line Missouri d line.

So I'm gonna go against the model.

Anything up to seven, I'm gonna take Missouri to win, and I'm gonna take Missouri to cover.

That number is available right now at FanDuel.

All the numbers are available at FanDuel.

Why well, because they are the official betting provider and odds provider of PAYT State, and we appreciate them like I had to hit them in a pinch earlier.

Today.

You know, everyone out there has got a partner, but not every betting partner.

An odds provider really provides odds.

I hit them up, I said, JP Pole coming out tonight, Hey, I need some numbers.

They gave us numbers.

That's how we found out that Bama would still be an eight and a half point favorite neutral field against Florida State.

Don't shoot the messenger.

You can't.

You're not in the room with me.

Remember you can use that QR code you can get to FanDuel dot com forward slash Josh Pate.

If you're a new customer, you sign up.

You bet five bucks on anything and win, I mean betted on the surest thing you can find on there.

Betted on the money line for Oregon for all I here.

You win, You get three hundred dollars in bonus bets.

So not quite free money, but very close to it.

If you're smart.

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I'm going to end the show tonight with the Rominddle Express.

I have four, count them, four best bets that we are going to offer tonight.

I'm gonna just rattle them off to you right here.

Northern Illinois plus seventeen and a half.

They're on the road at Maryland.

We are playing Northern Illinois plus seven teen and a half.

That number available at FanDuel right now.

James Madison plus fourteen and a half is at Louisville.

That number currently available at FanDuel.

Illinois on the road against Duke.

I like coach Brett to win and cover Illinois minus two and a half that is available at FanDuel right now, And we're going to first total of the year.

Michigan Oklahoma is going over forty five and a half.

I actually think it's going to be over fifty.

So I really like the number over forty five and a half Michigan and Oklahoma.

Remember, you got to be tuned in and you got to be following on the socials at Josh pat CFB, especially Friday night because Friday Night Lines airs exclusively on my Instagram channel in the Instagram live feed, and that's where we finalize the best bets.

Like that's the maybe the best thing we do all week.

Actually appreciate you guys.

Let's get home, let's get some supper in US, and let's get back here Thursday.

Ready to go for director Bradley, for producer Jesse, I'm joh.

Take care, have a great rest of your evening, and God bless.

Must be twenty one plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or eighteen plus and present in DC.

First online real money wager only five dollars first deposit required.

Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt.

Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com.

Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd Gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.

Hope is here.

Visit Gambling Helplinema dot org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts.

Or call one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y.

Or text Hope n Y.

In New York