Scientitation's Mets fans, and welcome to this week's edition for all your kids out there, a Mets adjacent to Baseball Perspectives podcast.

I'm your host Jeffrey pettern Ostrow with me once again this week is Jarrett Seidler.

Jarrett, The life of a prospect writer is one of perpetual reminders of your own fast approaching to in essence.

You know, literally, Reggie Walt's kid was drafted first overall back in July.

But nothing I have found will really crystallize how old you're getting.

Then slightly misapproximating how deep the pit will be at a Japanese metal show.

Why did you go on Japanese Metals?

Because it's Boris.

They're great, it's one of my favorite either doing a twentieth anniversary tour for one of my favorite albums.

And I figured I was fine because I was standing towards it's a small club, but it's not a big venue.

But I was standing like towards the back of the pit area such as it is, it's not really much of a pit with like the other forty year old stoner metal dads.

I'm not really a Sotner metal dad, but I blend in enough, right, and there's stuff like isn't super They have some like faster tracks, but their stuff is a little more like Droney in places.

But yeah, about halfway through the second track on the album, which is the Pink the album title track.

But okay, Mammy, you'll fix it.

I great, thanks for that update.

About halfway into the song when it like speeds up, just like all these twenty five year olds came out of nowhere, like Mashing is not prepared for that.

Like it's fine, I won't let them have their fun.

I'm too old to that.

I got clattered a few times and not my hip A sare that's along and the short of it.

Well that's the thing that tends to help on that at my age.

Yeah, Like I didn't even like at the time, I didn't even like I got knocked into him, like, oh that's annoying, and I just woke up with a sore hip the next time.

Standing for the better part of two and a half hours probably didn't help either.

Probably on the like the barroom floor of this club venue, what's a good time if you get I don't they they're not doing a huge shot, but you get to they already played in New York, so this is not gonna be relevant to most of our listeners, but you get a chance to see them.

They can still.

They can still.

The amount of noise they can make with just three people is very impressive, although a quarter of the stage was amps, so that probably helped.

Anyway, we're approaching Thanksgiving.

Nothing is happening in baseball because nothing happened the GM meetings this week.

David Stearns gave the same noncommittal press quotes every day and not the same but similarly apportioned quarterships.

And we will do this until something happens.

I guess they have extended the qualifying offer.

Edwin he is he is not going to take it.

There are rumors that he might be.

I don't know if close to a deal is right, but there's certainly interest from the Toronto Blue Jays.

Yeah, that was reported by Ken Rosenthal.

And look, the Toronto Blue Jays are exactly the team to be like, we need an actual closer because Jeff Hawston coughed up the World Series.

Yeah, that's you know, it's kind of does what it is.

I am massively confused by many of the same people who shut on Edwin Diaz for large portions of the last six years now threatening David Sterns if they don't sign him.

But you know, consistency with baseball fans of that type is not really a thing that happens anymore.

Yeah, and like, look, we've Edwin Diaz has been a Met for what seven seasons, while he missed one year, but then the Mets for seven seasons, but y know, one of them was one of the best relief system relief seasons in Mets history.

Obviously in twenty twenty two, one of them was very good, but he also lost his closer job.

That's twenty twenty and twenty twenty is weird anyway, Right, last year he was very good.

He was.

It was not as good as his twenty twenty two season, but it was a first division closer season.

Twenty twenty three, he lost his job partially because he got to stick yourself suspension, gave up multiple backbreaking home runs forgot to cover first base in a game that if the Mets had lost, everyone would have run him out of town after.

Yeah, is no in the entire time in Diaz has been a.

Seven seasons.

Yes, there has been no period in which he would have actually been worth the type of contract that he's asking for.

You can't even come up.

You cannot come up with a four or five years start, or he would have been worth a contact.

Yep, or even like remotely close though it is very possible he is a top five closer in baseball next year.

Yes, he's been that twice.

Yeah, in the six full seasons he has played with the Mats, he has played with the Mats, he has been that twice.

And like, look, if you.

Want to buy by solely by run prevention, because if you can make it by if you take it by the KPIs he's going on right.

But also like, if you want to include his twenty eighteen with reality play, shouldn't at this point.

That was another season that was one of the tap Beliefs stats.

So there's no evidence he's the guy.

You people all can plain about him constantly.

You can plain about his command meltdowns, and then when it's time to brast Hacks, all of a sudden, oh my god, we can't let him leave.

I think this is like a fucking this is a constant like fans also fans generally speaking outside of like you know, the Yankees with Mariano Rivera and a few other examples.

Don't trust their closer, right, even if they're good closers for the most part, because there's some it's not survivorship bias, but you remember the blow ups more than you remember the one, two, three innings, just the way it goes.

But again, this guy's been a dominant closer.

Yeah, right, And this guy's been a dominant closer in one hundred and sixty two game season.

He has pitched one hundred and sixty two game season.

He has pitched nine one hundred and sixty two game season in the Major League.

Three of them he's been.

There has been a dominant closer for three of them.

You can add in the tenth that was the short season if you.

Really want to, and he doesn't really have this season.

That's where he's just like a two point niney ra guy that blows him saves if.

You eliminate his twenty twenty, which is a short season, and his twenty sixteen in which he came up mid season.

So other than that, he has played eight full major league seasons.

He missed all of one of them of injury, So you can even knock that down to seven.

So in the in the white best to him, he has under had an under three ERA and three out of seven full seasons he's pitched Yeah.

Three.

Do you feel comfortable with the closer within the ra over three because more than half of the time that's what you got from Edwin d and that was his prime.

He's losing velosity fast.

Yeah, if you want to.

Closers do not usually get better at this stage when they start losing loss.

Right the best you can.

You are paying.

You are paying for his depling phase.

He has more likely to be out of the league of five years than he is to be a good pull.

And if you're looking for like guys of this and these were better and more consistent closers than Das at their peak, although not maybe I mean Kenley Jansen's peak was as good ass.

But most of the players that most of the players that you're about to mention are players.

Yeah, but I'm saying like.

You're you're about to mention Edwin You're about to mention in comparison to Edwin Diaz.

You're about to mention Craig Kimberle, You're about to mention kim Jansen.

Was actually I was actually not going to mention Kimberll because Kimberl I do feel kind of fell off this cliff to a point.

But I'll get to kimberly on in a minute.

I was gonna but Jansen lost velocity.

Basically he started mixing in other pitches, right, Like he still throws the cutter a lot, but he added a slider, he added a four team a little more.

And even his decline period hasn't been great, right, he's been a second division closer.

Basically, he's in the itinerate period of his career where he's just sort of racking up saves for second division teams.

Jaquim Soria lost velocity and look Soria wasn't a closer after a certain point.

But again he changed his pitch mikes a little bit.

He always had better command than Diaz, did you know or all as Chapman.

I know he's bounced around a lot, but like Chapman just had more to give back on velocity for starters, but he had he had his Twitter, right, Yeah, yeah, Kimberle, when it went, it went quickly.

Now, teams kept trying to try Craig Kimblell because Craig Kimberlell at his peak was you know, a closer.

He had periods were still okay.

Right, Like he had like the two point nine three point one again not great, and like teams would leave him like that.

But the Phillies left him off the playoff wasn't the Phillies.

Somebody left off the playoff Rouster or whatever at one point might have been the Dodgers.

But the Craig tembral Cubs run.

Yeah right, yes, like an epic Orioles won too.

Yeah, right, that was right about the age period here.

And Diaz is not getting Diaz is not getting the one in fifteens here.

Yeah.

David Robertson, who aged incredibly well for aliever, is still a good reliever at age forty one.

Yeah, went through a period in his mid thirties where he was horrible when he pitched and missed a ton of time due to elbow.

Yeah.

The concept like this is a cohort which ages notoriously badly basically across the board.

I mean, like, the best, honestly, the best closer hit the market in recent years is Josh Hader, who got paid like the best colone.

He got the Daz level deal basically, and he was fine this year, and.

He also blew out his shoulder, and nobody knows if he's going to be good moving forward.

But the Astros, the Astros paid him, liked Diaz and younger than Diaz's age because Diaz and Hater are the same age.

And he signed this contract two years ago.

The first two years of the deal, where the value should have been frontloaded, he threw one hundred and twenty three innings at three point zero six y r and blow out his shoulder.

Those were the good years.

There have been people suggesting that, oh, you can't hold the knee injury against them because it was a fluke injury.

Okay, I can't hold the knee injury against him.

I don't think it's going to recur necessarily, but it has.

He's clearly cost himself lower body explosiveness in a way that has lost him multiple miles an hour of loss.

And probably some command too, frankly, not that he had a ton went back to begin with.

So I, like I I said last week when we did the Yeah rundown, that like I thought they would resign him, and I thought would be like three and sixty nine, and neither of us would like it, but we'd live with it.

If he's got being getting offered five and one hundred from the Jays, you just got to let him go.

Like that's the reality of it, I.

Mean, the reality of it.

This is pretty much let of going no matter what.

Like sure, but right, the entire the best thing that David sterens Is has been known for for the last decade, it's finding elite relievers based.

Off but he hadn't done it in New York in two years yet, Jared, he hasn't you gonna say, like read Garrett or something, it's.

Actually done a pretty decent job of it.

People's expectations or you don't there was nothing here that he and heerd it.

Sure, I mean he hasn't found a Trevor McGill yet, right, or a Josh Hater for that.

Right, But that's like just there was a top twenty five prospects.

This is like saying if if they I mean, here's a trade acquisition.

So it makes it a little bit like if Jonah Toong became an elite closer, which like is not an impro totally improbable outcome for him.

He goes into shortly finds three miles an hour extra velssity.

And becomes it could be very similar to like Devin Williams, right, like that.

Actually is that is a that is a reasonable path for sure.

Jonah thoms Broke could this.

People will hold that against Sterns, not for him, right Like that would be considered a huge disappointment.

If Brandon Sproute becomes an elite closer, people will consider that a median outcome.

For It's very funny because I remember when we did that list.

I remember that list very well because that's the Guseelman seventeen.

It was just like a weird It was a weird group of pictures because like Giolito was still ranked then.

I believe it was like hater.

It was like I mean, I could look it up, but there's like a lot of believerish guys.

I remember when we were discussing the hater ranking.

It's like he was still starting at the time, but like it was pretty clear like he was going to be a reliever, And I'm like, well, if he turns into the reliever, we think again, like this ranking is fine.

Yeah, Like I again, I just want to Edwin Diaz in under the light most positive to him because it's actually five out of eight because the season he didn't kids due to injury counts here.

That counts.

But in the full season, in the seasons in which he has been a Major League ross player for the entire one hundred and sixty two game season, whether you call it seven or eight, in over half of them, he has been Jose bhutto or worse.

Think about that for a minut.

Yeah, and like just hater again for comparison's sake, he will will again be fair.

He came up in twenty seventeen, it didn't pitch the full season, even though it was very good.

Twenty eighteen two point four to three, twenty nineteen two point six two, twenty twenty short season three point seventy nine, and he's the little home run prone one point two to three, and twenty twenty one.

You can argue his twenty twenty one season is better than any single season d S has had.

He was a disaster in twenty twenty two.

That was where he got traded the padres Aly pitchwell in the playoffs for them, then again to one point two eight in twenty twenty three three point eight zero, and twenty twenty four to two point oh five, and again this is era, but like.

Let's let's let's let's do a different way of Okay, let's go over the recent World Series champions.

How do you build a World Series champion?

Yes, this is spoiling.

You're spoiling my mets essay for the annual.

But that's fine.

We can do that.

Well, we're gonna do this with closer specifically.

Yeah, well I'm doing it with pitchers.

But yeah, we can do with closer.

That's fine.

Calls are for the twenty twenty five Dodgers.

Yeah, can you identify one rookiek It was rookie Sasaki in the playoffs?

Right, he didn't pitch the entire year.

Basically, it was a bad starting pitcher who missed most of the year by injury.

In their biggest spots in the playoffs, he mostly pitched.

He pitched, Okay, he was probably kind of lucky he was.

He wasn't the same after the three inning outing, which fair.

I suppose, like the guy who closed out the World Series for them was their number one start.

Yeah, the twenty twenty four Dodgers.

Jesus, I guess training technically.

Possible to identify calls are on this team.

They played matchups a lot of the time.

They played matchups pretty also didn't They didn't play a lot of there was a weird one.

They didn't play a lot of tight games either, like they played some.

The guy that used to calls out the World Series was their fourth starter.

Yeah, the two thousand in twenty three Texas Rangers.

Jose Leclair.

Not really he closed, like I mean, he pitched like every game of the playfist.

But the guy, the guy who was mostly their closer for mostly the season, was reliever Will Smith.

Yeah, they traded for Chapman that didn't work out.

They used Josh Spores.

They did use five regular season r Yeah, they used a lot.

Yes, close in the World Series.

He has sixteen early since.

Yeah, and you can keep we can keep doing this for a little while, and you will eventually run into teams that had, you know, ace closers.

Right, you go back to the two thousand and two World Series.

So the Astros, So the two thousand twenty.

Two Astros that Brian abrew is before a break.

Now it's Ryan Presley.

Ryan Presley.

Yeah, so they actually did take the they had a closer, they used him to close in the World Series like he was actually their closer in the World Series.

The closer did not lose his job in that World Series.

Like save situations, he in fact saved the World Series winner for the game.

Ryan Presley has most mostly been a good relief pitcher.

But the salary dumped him this year, right, They salary dumped him three years later.

It happened at.

Age thirty two, and he'd frankly been a similar pitcher on Edwin Diaz leading out to this, but got nowhere near as much money because he didn't have the elite closer role he and he just finished the five seasons of the contract in which he was salary dumped, and he was a to win player, not a twin player for perst season.

Yes, and he got salary dumped for much less money than Edwin Diaz would be making here and again he doesn't throw as hard and have as many career saves, so you can you can play around with this, but in general, that's that's what you're going to get out of him.

So the twenty twenty one Atlanta Brave.

The Night Shift, Yes, Luke Williams and Will Smith again I think is around here, right, This is.

This is a team.

The regular season closer once again was will Smith, again not having a particularly good season, pitch very well in the playoffs.

But right, he did pitch very well in the playoffs.

They were mostly using him.

Is the closer in the playoffs.

But again, we have multiple World Series champions within the last five years that had second division closer Will Smith close.

Yes, that's where we're at here.

You go back twenty twenty Los Angeles Dodgers.

If you want to count that World Series is.

Not I mean I don't, it's I think it's they had to win four browns of the playoffs or whatever.

So this discussion, they were the best team.

They had Kenvia Jansen.

They that's how far you have to go back to get a first division closer without a cap.

Yet they had Kenley Jans and Potter.

Immediately after this, Jeff.

They let Kenley Jansen Wall.

They let Kenny Jensen Wall.

Well, he pitched for that, but yeah, a year later.

Yes, they let Kenley Jensen.

The Walk they had declined face Kenley Jansen.

They eventually let Walk, who.

Didn't like he pitched.

Again, it's weird because it's twenty twenty.

Let's let's keep going because he did not have a great e ra but like otherwise he looked like Kenny Jansen, Like there's twenty nineteen Nationals I don't even remember.

I mean, I'm gonna I'm gonna give someone I know astraight here, and I'm sorry he probably won't listen to this.

Seugderottle lost his job in the Stretch Rock and he was one of the better closers in baseball, and they were using junk pile Daniel Hudson off the junk pile.

Daniel Hudson is their playoff reliever, right.

I mean there was also usually like Corbin and Strasbourg.

Right, Yes, they were using and Sean was in that next tip.

So like I don't want to yeah, totally, but yes, you start that this is not how actual World Series winning teams have been built recently.

It is not off of a top paid, perceived dominant closer.

It reminds me of this is going way back.

Do you remember if I think it was Nate Silver's secret sauce, Right, Yeah, it.

Was like, no, it was that's a Bill James and mentioned it's over.

Okay, Well, Nate Silver did its updated, updated it and found that like having a you know, one of the the best traits you could have as a World Series winner.

I believe it was.

It was overall strikeout rate, defensive efficiency, and elite closer.

And like some of this makes sense, right, because the overall strikeout rate and defensive efficiency when you're playing short series you want to minimize variants.

Do you want to minimize balls in play and you want to feel the ones when they're in play.

Elite closer, like therefrom was the years he were looking at he was looking at were like all years the Yankees were dominant, so it overfitted Mariana Rivera and like, yeah, if you have Mariana Rivera, fine, if you have fine.

Remember what the Astros were doing in twenty seventeen Lands for colors, right, yeah, you have to go.

You have to go all the way back to the twenty sixteen.

You were doing other things in twenty seventeen too.

The twenty sixteen Cubs.

They traded for a world as Chapman and back home run in Game seven.

Right, traded a huge load for all the Chapman to get the shutdown elite top of the world closer unquestioned.

There's no caveat here, and they did win the World Series.

It had very little to do with throughout this Chapman, but they.

Did, you know, the twenty fifteen Royals.

Obviously it wasn't just Way Davis.

They had a deep bullpen right right again.

Yeah, but baseball was played very differently in the mid twenty tens in earlier.

It's a very different offensive era.

It's very a very different game.

Player evaluation was different, everything was different.

Things were just different.

We've discussed that in regards to Paul dey t Testa.

Right.

You know, the playoffs are longer now too, like it's it's and.

That doesn't mean that it's not good to have an elite closer.

People will absolutely start taking this out of context.

You assholes are going to post on Mets rddit.

Seidler said, you don't need an elite closer.

Somebody's going to take this out of context.

Having an elite closer is better than not having an elite closer in an absolute, complete vacuum.

It is in fact better, yes, But some things you have to consider when talking about that is the Mets.

Is the Mets money limitless?

Is this the best use of the Mets money Over this period of time.

How much.

Is there going to come a point when the manager, whether that's Carlos Mendoza or not, gives ed the Diaz way too long a rope because he's being paid a record setting closer contract.

Guess what, That's already happened multiple times under Edwin Diaz's last record setting contract.

Is there a can we reliably predict short relief performance to make this a good bet in a contract?

If we did, how does Edwin Diaz actually look?

And everybody just keeps doing these generic lines about how the Mets need Edwin Diaz.

Nobody talks about how Edwin Diaz is likely to eight sure, which is an entirely different topic, And you don't want to talk about that topic because it doesn't suit the narrative that you're pushing.

Because Edwin Diaz is not particularly likely to age well.

As a guy that's losing velocity and has a.

Right you end up in a situation too where like I think the same people that are.

Already a slider spam guy, like, there's not a lot more they can do here with this with his grouping of traits, right, Like there's when he loses another mile or two of velocity or loses more pitch shape, like there's nothing left here, He's just gonna be done.

Yeah.

I think the other thing too, is like a lot of people clamoring for this were super happy with like the Brandon Nemo contract, and now three years later, you know, putting every branded Nemo trade proposal they can come up with on Twitter.

Right.

Honestly, a lot of them aren't.

Some of them aren't, but some of them, like I don't, think there's a lot of.

A lot of them still think that deal is good.

Yeah, I mean I think you want it.

It's like the.

Okay, so I will actually back this up.

Let's back this oppositecond It's not that they're clamoring to trade Brandon Nimo.

It's asking why the cheap Jews aren't going after Kyle Talker.

Sure, right, that's the actual thing, right, start Stern's Stern's in in brackets.

Why isn't Sterns after Kyle Talker?

You know?

And look, I see that there's a lot of that in the fan base now too, and it doesn't make me happy.

And I think they're a lit though.

They just want the dopamine head of resigning Edwin Diaz and don't think three years from now what that's going to look like.

Sure, fine, great if you wanna, if you wanna wut to Narco, But don't fucking tell me it's okay.

Don't you can do that?

All you look there there is I don't think this person listens to the podcast.

So if I'm absent, you know, I follow a Mets person on X the Everything app.

Very nice person.

I mean honestly, that describes fifty people I follow on X the Everything app who just really wants Edwin Diaz back, just really enjoys Edwin d If you're saying that, I have no problem with you saying that.

That is a perfectly valid way to take in baseball.

If you just want Edwin Diaz back, if you just want Peter Linzo back, and you don't fucking care about any of the rest of it, that's a perfectly valid way to experience baseball.

We do not want to deny that.

I don't, But don't fucking tell me how smart it is.

Right, those are two different things.

I just want Edwin Diaz back because Edwin Diaz is my favorite pitcher and I like watching him.

Is not the same as the Mets need Edwin Diaz back.

Those are two very very very very very different.

Right, We're we're consuming baseball in different ways, right, And look they're met Like I really enjoyed the Hosey Iglesias Mets run in twenty twenty four for about year, like from going back from following him as a prospect in the Red Sox system.

It's a kind of player I enjoy watching generally.

He's not a very good shortstop anymore, obviously, and like, no, absolutely they should not bring him back, right, Like you have to be able to to slice that off.

Yes, in a way, to be able to if you are trying to do analysis, you are just doing I like this, that's totally different.

Look, the initial like getting him as a minor league free agent non roster in my tea, convincing him to take go down to triple A, like everything in the process bring him in the first time was good.

Like they're doing this now with what Jose Rojas.

Right, Yes, but I probably won't like Jose Rojas as much as Jose Gleasias because there's just I bring other things to that.

There's lots of emotional attachment that has nothing to actually do with the baseball and.

Right, and that's time.

Like I I don't want to completely excize that from the way I watch baseball.

No, I don't either, but we have to be But if you're going to do this, and you're going to do this in a serious way, because again, yeah, we're not just talking about Randos on Twitter here on Blue Sky, or Rando's on mets adit or Randos in our Facebook group.

There's a lot of actual media it's talking like this, and it's just like.

They also bring different things to the table.

Right, and a lot of them are captured by you know, this person or that person, whether that's an agent or a player or I don't even think it's forced within the front office that really wants the player.

I don't even know if some of it is captured, but I think some of it is also just you know, they they're not coworkers, right, but you're around these people a lot, right, their proximity work obsidity.

Yeah, yeah, sure, And like I get that that comes into it, right, Like I'm sure Alonzo is a good postgame quote.

I'm sure he's pretty good about answering texts relatively speaking, right, Like he makes your job easier in some ways, and that even if you, you know, try to be an unbiased media sort of thing, like that stuff creeps in like it's inevitable.

But like.

I think you'd be able to recognize that and try to get some discom it, right, Like you don't have to write the comment the Mets needed also because they don't.

I mean they do, but they don't write like there's these are all I mean, they need.

Peter Alonzo a lot more than they needed.

This is the weird thing about this discourse because Alonzo it is true that Alonzo will be easier to hide than or that Diaz will be easier to hide over the long run, Like that actually is true.

Right, Like Diaz can go into like the Joaquim story of veteran seventh inn and Guyrol, right, he'll be overpaid but whatever, right.

But at the same time, the contracts likely to be like a lot worse for didas.

Like it's also like there's just way more pass for like Alonzo to be like a viable major league player when.

He's when Diaz gets to that point.

Also, like you know, like Truman Paul to be able to do that for the league minimum, right or something somebody like that right, Peyton Prescott, whoever else, Dylan Ross, And that's like I don't like again, if he's not, like you said, you want an elite closer instead of not an elleite closer.

But if he's not an elite closer, then you would hope the Mets are at the point where they can conjure upt that level over labor.

Yeah, and also like we don't know how long he's going to be an E league closer.

That's the other part of it too, Yeah, I don't And part of it, like the overall the bullpen scuffled down the stretch too, and ideas was propping it up to an extent.

I think that's part of it.

But also like at the end of the day, this was a closer on an eighty two win team.

Yeah, they had a good season, but like again, I feel like five years and one hundred million, and it's you can do that.

It's not my money and it's not your money and you shouldn't really care.

But at a certain point, but.

There is a limit here.

There is a limit here.

There actually is there actually is.

The Mets do not have no budget, all right, Yes, they do not have and they actually do need to fill a few different holes, serious ones.

I don't think there's really any other news.

All right, well, that's fine.

We got a lot of emails, so we'll take a break, come back and dispatch with the correspondence.

Welcome back, now assigned for the third half of the show.

Before we do the third half of the show, we do housekeeping.

It's for All Your Kids out There, Episode five hundred and fifty one.

For All Your Kids out There as a Mets adjacent to Baseball Perspectives podcast you guys on the internet at Baseball Perspectives dot com.

The podcast is on iTunes and various non iosps.

Just search for All Your Kids out There and you listen or subscribe right there.

You want to get in contact with the show, you can email us at All your Kids at Baseball Perspectives dot com.

And we have a Facebook group at Facebook dot com slash groups slash for all your Kids out There.

All right, let's pick up as she got some more emails since last week.

But we can pick back up with the emails.

We will start with one from Steve.

That's good.

It was a good thing to talk about too.

Is that suya am I more of a Senga or in Monaga level pitcher coming from Japan hit us from Japan this offseason seemed too risky to give a big contract true try to get him as a number three signed sees to be the two behind McLean.

All right, these are kind of quick hits.

So whatever, the Mets are clearly interested in am I like that's been yeah signaled here and like you've said this already, Like I don't know what we talked about.

I think we talked about a little bit.

I talked about him on five and Dive too.

He is going to get a lot more money than Sega did or Inmanaga.

Some of that is I don't know that he's been a better picture that he's actually probably been a better picture than singer of minog in Japan.

He's younger and just the you know, pigy markets relatively deep, but you just there's no player compensation like there will be for cease from ber Michael King, and he's younger.

Is the driving force here again, he's not as young as Yamamoto, and he wasn't as good as Yamamoto.

But he's not going to get three hundred and twenty five million.

He might get two hundred and twenty five million, And you've noted this before where even among you know, more analytically savvy ops and scouts and analysts, he's divisive, Yes, because it's it's a very it's a very unusual pick pitch mix.

He's not a very big guy, although he's thrown one hundred and fifty hundred sixty innings in Japan every year, which is about where they top out because they pitch once a week.

Yeah, and it's kind of like, okay, and it's not like I Monaga, where there were like legitimate concerns about the basketball quality that have played out right.

His fastball is very good, but he has that kind of like Treya Savage doing a tongue.

Nothing moves east west.

Yeah.

I mean again, it's not so he's got a reverse movement.

Yeah, And there is a curve ball and I think there is an ability to sweep the ball here.

I just think he really hasn't needed to.

Sure, it's also like a date I've had, but that's a debate I've had with people whether he has an actual ability to sweep the ball.

But yes, there is a little bit of that.

And it's also like, especially with his mix of pitch shapes.

You do wonder if there's gonna be a prougher transition to the major league ball from the MPV ball too.

Yeah, but that's like true all these guys.

And I mean, I think you would like, again, Senga's pitch ray well when he's been healthy.

I think if you told me he was like around a three e R a guy in the majors, I'd be like, yeah, that sounds but these things have such big error bars, Like he could come over and be a young motor level pitcher.

Yeah, like he's certainly capable of doing that.

A possibility here.

And again we don't know like he's there's been some quotes coming out where he's like he doesn't feel challenged at all over there, which is funny, but like we don't know what his We had discussion with the AMAO, but his interesting attitudes and pitch design stuff.

You know, Yamamoto apparently really didn't and he took like three months to adjust and that it's been fine since.

You know, Otani is a guy that's added a bunch of pitches.

You know, Senga's added bunch of pitches, So that's going to be something that's going to you know, I'm sure play out and during the pot you think he's been officially post he's officially posted next week, I think, yeah.

A lot of times they like this to go do the meetings at the winter meetings right and then side after give them time to side after Christmas.

Basically he might it might get done before then.

But but yeah, again, you just have to pay the twenty million dollars posting fee in a percentage of the contract, so it's like it is what it's just the tax on top of it.

There's gonna be a lot of teams in here, I think, especially the teams that don't necessarily want to give up a pick or don't want to give up more like sign two lead pictures and give up multiple picks.

Look, I think they will definitely be in here.

I think they'll be in on the headers too.

Yeah, yeah, I think they'll be in on a Comoto and Muracay.

I don't know if they'll sign either of them.

I don't know what their valuation is there.

I don't know what their preath is there.

But I think you know, if you again, like Okamoto's older, but I think younger than Alonzo and or Akami is obviously can be twenty six.

Yeah, and you know if you have you know, you've got your swing doctors now with Albert and Snicker, and this will be true too.

I think you're gonna obviously they haven't officially announced justin Willard.

I assume they're just gonna dump all.

I think they're just gonna dump and I'll dump all the coaches in a notes, app, tweet or whatever when they're done with it.

You know, Stearns talked about Snicker but not Willard, but Snicker also is under contract right now, so he can probably do that.

It's like, what Willard is still technically an employee of the Boston Red Sox, so you're not really allowed to talk about that.

I wouldn't read into it beyond that.

But these are discussions you're gonna have, right like you're going to have them.

There's a Joe Adell discussion in the Fraud Kids discord for the last day or so since the Angels made him available, and like you're gonna like You've get Snicker and Albert in a room looking at video and think what can we do with this?

Right?

These are the conversations you can have now that you have these hitting and pitching people in place, you can bring them into the room for these kind of like pro player acquisition discussions.

Yes, that is in fact something good team smart yams.

So they can look at Murakami and it' said like, okay, what can we do to get him on time, on better velocity?

Is there something we can do?

Again, it's not necessarily going to be, you know, a firm answer, but you're gonna have an idea, right And look, you can bring those into the meetings with Murakami engage his interest, right, Yes, maybe he'd like because there's some guys that just don't want to change shit, right, Like, so it's gonna cut both ways on that.

I do think they're risky to give a big contract to.

But like, so's Peter Alonzo, right, those from Berbeldez, Like, anytime you're in this mart get there's risk.

So was Brandon Nemo, Like that's it goes all right, here's one for Jarrett.

A prospect writer said, the Mets barely use pro scouting, which is the concern of his regarding them right now.

Is true, I would certainly prefer my franchise be more analytics oriented, But that said, I still want a strong presence in pro scouting.

Jared, what is pro scouting in twenty twenty six?

A really good question.

The Mets have pro scouts.

The writer who said that means it in the sense of the version of pro scouting that existed in the early to mid two thousands.

Two pounds tens, I mean in the two thousands too.

But yeah, when that writer and some other people decided that that was how you emulated for good prospect writing, very very very very few teams still practice that form of pro scott.

It is the area guy behind home plate with the radar gun and the notebook open.

Right.

Well, me and you both did that.

Oh, we both did that.

We did a lot of that, Jared, We did a lot of the And You've had season credentials at Lake what I've had season credentials at Hartford and Norwich.

Like credentials at Trenton too.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, two of us.

We were doing it in the mid twenty tens, and like at the time it was it was a value add at the time relative to hear it on some level.

I miss it.

I miss it more than you do, certainly, certainly, like I I want to wind it back to barely using pro scouting.

The Brewers, the organization David stears comes from, functionally eliminated their pro scouting department at in the way that this prospect writer means it.

Right, They did not eliminate their pro a valuation.

Yes, let's let's be clear here.

Yes again, what is pro scouting in twenty twenty six?

Yes, a lot of that was driven by Matt Arnold.

But yeah, and like nobody says that, nobody in.

The of a lot of people, including.

You, nobody.

Yeah, nobody is concerned that the Brewers don't use pro scouting.

I mean, I mean some people might be, but like, no, like, it's very difficult to say it hasn't worked for them, right, I'll put it that way.

Sure, Yeah, let's let's frame up that.

Yeah, it's very difficult to them.

Yeah, if I am, I will use what the I'll use.

Edward Florentino Pirates list is going up tomorrow.

He played in Bradenton all year in the complex in Florida State League.

It would not be hard for me to ping a scout to saw him in Bradenton, right, Sure, not be particularly hard.

I sat down recently, in fact, half yeah, yeah.

Multiple scouts, so this one's actually input into ours.

Yeah, although it was not input into yours.

Yeah, I sat down and watch, probably, I don't know, twenty to thirty Edward Florentino at bats on video with his KPIs from Florida State League in front of me.

I made notes on his swing mechanics.

I made notes on his approach or at the report that's pro scouting.

Any value add to you have physically having seen Edward Florentino not really.

I may maybe I get a slight lightly better view of his defense, but again I don't defense.

Like trying to figure out what a range, A zone based range based defensive model is going to spit out on a player that's eighteen right now and not, you know, being positioned with Florida stately data is not going to Like I can see how he moves, I can see how he throws.

I don't know how much he's going to grow.

He's fairly lean, and again, like if he's the kind of hitter he projects to be, it's not really going to matter if he's a plus five right fielder or a minus five center fielder or a first baseman.

Frankly, even at that point matter a little.

And again this is self selecting, but not entirely, because I talk to very much behind the plate pro scout still an amateur scouts for that matter.

Amateur scouts, it's a lot more important.

Sure, especially if you're doing prep stuff.

So here's the here's the Yeah, what is what is the job of a player evaluator?

That was an actual question.

What do you think the job of player evaluators projecting major league performance?

What do you think the job were pro.

Scaltos projecting major league performance?

The difference between difference the difference between how Keith meant it and the difference between how you mean it pretty start here, because there's an idea that is held and it's not just Keith, And it's a lot of people that either you still or even in some cases still work for teams, but also some writers, and Keith did work for a team.

So I don't want to you know, this is not an uncommon idea within let's say, the broader player evaluation community, that scouting is a particular thing that is not just projecting the performance of the player, projecting the future role of the player, projecting the player's future value, projecting the player's expected value, however you want to use that.

I used future value in capitals because I understand what fangraps means and Kylie means when they say I'm not gonna play stupid and pretend that people are talking about here.

That's insulting to our readers and listeners.

This was Keith Love who said that people are shopping his quotes to us.

Of course, he does not particularly hide when people shop our quotes to him, and so I will no longer provide him that courtesy either the the way.

So in his eye, pro scouting and pro evaluate aren't the same thing.

In pro scouting is practicing a particular art a bunch of us learned at a point in time, and pro scout is a particular title for somebody who practices that particular art.

I mean sure, you sort of believed this five or seven years ago too.

I mean I generally, if you, I would never call myself a scout because that is a job title.

But it's it's.

Like, no, but you would call yourself a value it.

Sure, And also scout the job description is different than it was ten years ago.

Even if the job title is the.

Same, everybody's job title is different than it was.

Yeah, sure, the world.

The world moves on.

And so when Keith is saying that the Mets aren't using pro scouting right, he's saying that in the very specific type of art that he means when he says pro scout right, which is not what a lot of his reader base or our reader based, or the people listening to this podcast think of when they think pro scouting.

Sure, so no, the Mets that do.

The Mets have pro eyeball scouts.

They have a few.

If you look at their front office directory and the media guide, there are still a few people listed.

Is pro scout or the Mets are doing as much pro player evaluation as anybody, They're just funneling resources differently.

And I don't I said this on Blue Sky and people knew what I was talking about, and I said it then too.

Not only do I not think there is a value add in practicing pro scouting, I think there's an actual decline it.

I think you build in people's unconscious biases.

You built in people's natural desire to make a huge call for their job advancement or just because they want to make a huge call.

And again, some of this is and yeah, we're not extending any courtesy anymore.

So fair enough, this tis actually said in the first half about Keith's job is easier when there's more scouts pine home plates to tell him things.

Sure, and our job used to be too, because our job and his job used to be the same job and they're not anymore.

And I'm sure that's you know, I'm sure he doesn't like that.

There's ways in which you just pointed out that you don't like that either.

There's ways in which I don't like that.

From the human capital perspective, it sucks.

But also from like the actual workflow perspective, it's better, right, like heath for everything else, This heath for everything else has never been a two hundred day on the year, two hundred dawn the road every year, pro scout.

He has not lived that life.

I think that's true.

I don't actually know one, but I think it is.

It sucks.

I talked to people.

It sucks.

Yeah, it sure does.

Yeah, you know, I get to spend allowly with my kid instead of you know, we carved a pumpkin.

I cut my finger wide open.

We went trick or treating.

She met another elsa.

I was not at the Arizona Fall League.

Sure, well, there have been any benefit to you being at the Arts on a fall.

Do you think there would have been any benefit to you being at the arson A.

Fall I don't think so.

I mean I went there last year, right, And yes.

We've been at the horizon A Fall League in the past.

Yeah, not even the distant past.

I was there last year.

We sent people there before.

Yes, we have sent people there and generally not considered a particular value that causes The only value add the only reason we have discussed sending people to the Arizona Fall League over people were healthy, right, Yes, is networking and the value of showing up there.

So guys like Keith don't make comments about it?

Sure like they do?

Yeah, and like okay, like like the a f L m VP was Kevin McGonagall.

Great, I got shopped a quote from somebody, And this person does occasionally extend us as courtesy, so I will extend him the courtesy in return.

But I got shopped to quote by somebody's live evaluation of Kevin McGonagall in the Arizona Fall League that thinks he's a third basement now based off of that evaluation, yeah.

Maybe like yeah, Also maybe his legs were fucking tired.

It's no matter sure, Like like if you play like I neither, what's really think he's a short step, but if he's like a second basement or a third basement, it doesn't matter.

Maybe short stop.

I think roughly the same terms I think of Aiden Miller in terms of future defensive output.

I am not going to change that declination based on whether his legs were fresh in November in the Arizona Fall League was playing.

If he was playing a lot of third base in the Arizona Colleague and played it well, I might be able to put certain pieces of information.

Of there was like the team probably wanted him playing there.

Yes, I remember who was playing left field a lot, But there's somebody who's playing like left field a lot one.

So what what do we pay attention to in the Arizona Fall League?

Physical changes where they're playing, what the team seems to want them to be working on.

Do I really give a ship how they're looking against uneven?

Look, there were pitchers out there that hadn't been healthy all year.

The Mets said.

Nick Moore beudo out there from full season a double A, and he beat the shit out of the ball.

Congratulations, he was facing pitching the quality of what he faced like two years ago.

I will probably add him to the forty man.

A wild offensive environment.

They were probably, yes, that was probably a forty man evaluation thing.

They were probably evaluating very specific things that none of us have any fucking idea what they were actually doing, because we're not in the room hearing them talk to Nick more Beatle and saying, Nikki, baby, you gotta work on this man.

It was funny because like mcgonagall's, like, again, I don't care about this.

Mcgonagall's like, zone contact rate tanked badly in the Arizona Fall League, but he was also destroying the ball, so who like.

Who cares?

It's the Arizona Fall League.

I don't care.

Like, Okay, great Tony Blanco and patting practice can hit the ball one hundred and twenty two miles an hour.

I already fucking do that.

Yeah great, you got to see it with your own eyes?

Is there actual thing?

This is what?

This is what this entire ten minute thing that's I'm assuming is getting cut from the podcast.

It comes down to how much do you need to see something with your eyes?

To trust that.

That's the entirety of this discussion, right, that's everything.

It's how much you need to see it live from behind home plate because we're all watching eyes.

Yes, I'm saying the rest of this is not with your eyes.

Right.

That's that's the different That's that's the fundamental difference portraying all right.

I mean on some level it's just gatekeeping too, right, Like, of course Keith has a bigger travel than we do.

Oh, this is keep kidding me.

I've been doing this for fifteen years and I'm still getting gate kept.

It's great, of course, going to keep getting gate kept the.

Rest of my life.

Yeah, I'm sorry.

I never know where the goalposts are, like as Malene Valdez turned into peak Berry bonds down there, Like how much do you care about that?

Right?

A little?

Care a little.

He's higher on the pirates list than he would have been otherwise.

Not much, not much now much anyway, Now that that's Scoobale, Peralta and Ryan might not get traded boring on the flip side, good for the fan bases of those teams.

I mean, those teams are going to say they are not going to trade those guys, right, up until the moment they trade.

Those guys because there's no harm to there's no harm to it.

Things things change, you get blown away by an offer, you know.

Contensus opinion themes are the Mets have the best farm system out of all the nast teams they do.

It's not particularly close.

They might have the best farm system in baseball.

So because from will you know, orry about it?

Hey J and J is he going to make the Mets list?

He probably is?

Hey J, is ly it's fine.

I had this question my notes that for a few months that we got to send it until now I gotta know.

Why does it seem like there are so few good in game tactical managers as far as job analysis goes, Yes, the job can be difficult, so all knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics KSAOs separate good managers from bad ones.

It seems like they would be able to easy to measure, gauge, and or test for in a selection process, even if I'm discounting the other important duties of a manager off field instruction planning, psychological safety and support, collaboration, vibe cleansing, etc.

And the KSAOs that lead to the performance of these duties.

Smart teams can certainly decipher and instruct managers to improve manager behaviors, such as proper leverage based decision making.

I'm going to trim down the original content of this email, but long ago, Jared I had a back and forth about in one of the chats and Will Well, it's pretty nice to me there about as many elite in game tactical managers and MLB as or earlite quarterbacks in the NFL, given the quarterback requires so many dimensions of KSAOs and the on field job of managers limited in scope and relatively explicit in terms of duties.

Cheers.

So this is an interesting question.

I've been thinking about this a lot since it came in.

Actually, if you are hiring for a major league manager, yes, and God blessed, And I think, like I think we've seen this this offseason too, the the job pool of Canada.

And this is not like, you know, basketball, you really don't have to have even played same with football soccer, you don't have to have played at a high level.

Pep Guardiola obviously was an elite player, Jose Mourinho was not.

Yeah, baseball for managers, you really have had to have played Major League baseball, that's changing to an extent, But the vast majority of players played major league baseball.

And that's just going back for ever.

Right.

There are some guys that you know, did there you know we're minor league.

You know Mindoza was a minor league utility in fielder, right, And there are guys like that.

Luis Rojas was too, And like they obviously they are minor league managers.

They end up on major league coaching staffs, and some of them end up managers.

In the end, that pool of players has never had the most of them.

Like, there's like the backup catchers, right, and think that Stephen Vote the starting catcher, but like Austin Hedges is probably get the amba an extra quickly.

They just hired Kritszuki.

Most of these managers have never had to think about baseball from that side, right, So then you were you are hiring someone that like again doesn't like I think have a good example of this, Craig Council, who is actually a very good in game manager.

Right.

Council's approach to baseball when he was a player was Okay, how do I hit this guy?

Right?

It's very it's very microcosmic.

It's my game.

What do I what do I have to do to get the most out of it?

You know, I'm sure he was sent up to pinch hit and things like that, but like, I don't think he was thinking this would be a good spot for someone to pinchhead.

Right.

As a player, so you get this tunnel vision, and then as a manager you have to be able to you know, break it down like a stratomatic game.

Sure, and your hiring pool just doesn't reflect that skill set, right, those actual skills and like, look that the soft focused stuff that Well mentioned is important, and like you know, there is value in it coming from a player, another player, right, someone that knows what major League baseball life is like or whatever.

I don't mean to downplay that, Like I remember, I remember Brian Bannister told the story at once about like when he was having bad games in the minors.

So yeah, I could just call it my dad.

His dad, Floyd was a former number one overall pick and a major leaguer and rode the bus and stuff like that.

Right, So it's that ability to relate in a way that you know you could have and this has been true.

I think of certain kinds, like certain ex players that you know, Gabe Kepler might be an example of this, right where he might have had the you know, the progressive in game tactics and process stuff down.

But if you can't relate to the players and make them feel you know, the psychological safety and support, right, Like, I'm pulling you from this game now for this reason because it gives the best chance to win.

It's not a reflection on you and.

Your job, right, right.

And it is a difficult balancing act, very difficult.

Now again, I think there is something to the idea that the tactical stuff is probably easier to teach to the managers than the soft skills like empathy.

It's a good very hard to teach.

But and this is starting to change.

But I think there is this idea and like the guys that want to be managers do it, don't do it because they want to be like the conduit to the front office, all right, So that's part of it too, right, Like it's difficult to higher like they want to be the manager because they you know, Kurt Suzuki like looked up to Mike Sosha as a manager, right probably, and he probably wants to be Mike Sosha Mike Sosha famously did not want anything to do with that front office or any other front offices, right, And I'm sure when they were a player, like the you know, the bean counters of the GM, the guy is the guy that traded you, right or low balled you on salary.

So you're coming from that perspective as well.

So there's always a little bit of a conflict there, and some of it I think is a necessary conflict too, right, Like the players do need to be siloed off from that to an extent too.

You know, you have to have the firewall there.

Like some players want that information, right, they will go to the hitted, roving, hitting guy, or they want the dreams of data and things like that.

But I think it is difficult to you know, find a guy that does all that.

And the other thing is you can make the right tactical decision, it doesn't work out, you make the wrong tactical decision.

You know, you can think you're in a movie like Dave Roberts and when the World series, so it's it is difficult to evaluate.

This is another scenario too, where you tend to remember the things that go wrong more than the things that go like we remember buckshow Walter bringing in Trevor Williams as the eighth inning guy on Sunday because he wanted everybody to pitch Opening weekend.

You know from Sam, Why does Maddenly get more Hall of Fame consideration than Keith?

And Keith's is a stronger case and was a better player.

There's no real, particularly good reason for.

That, there really is, Yeah, I mean that that again, like that, I mean, I think initially like the cocaine stuff, but like at this point, I don't really they both have an MVP.

You know, Keith obviously won multiple World Series.

I don't know, it's very I mean, they both I guess Maddingly like went into coaching fairly quickly afterwards.

It's been around the game, But like Keith has been a broadcast for over twenty years now, So I don't think there's a I think they eventually both get in as much as that matter, I mean matters them obviously, you know, I think Keith should be in.

Maddingly it's like a it's very funny if like maddinglyn and del Murphy, you're the only two to get in in the Vedrooms committee this year.

It's very like.

I just like, it's difficult for me to try and care too much about the Hall of Fame when they're pulling shit like this with the current Vedrooms Committee.

But whatever, I went under the radar.

But an MLB official said to Bryce Harper, that's how people end up in ditches.

Did that actually happen?

What do you gotta Madaine reported, Yes, shouldn't the official get in trouble for that?

It's getting brushed aside.

I mean, yeah, they should, they shouldn't.

Probably it's right.

I mean I don't know, it's it's not exactly you know, the Kentucky coal mine strikes.

But yes, you probably should not threaten.

Probably probably shouldn't do that.

It's a matter of decorum.

John Gibbons was invited back his bench coach.

You's have to eventually take the same role for a much worse organization.

That's quite a decision.

I mean, maybe wants to you know, weather in Orange County is nicer?

Yeahs, I don't know what the Angels are doing.

Have givens and given this, you ever crossed towns?

I don't know.

I mean they I don't know, they have trouble they what they sign, who they just hires their I remember they are hitting coach.

I know they promoted their Triple A and Double A managers, so.

They hired uh what's his face?

Max?

Max Sas That's what it was, right.

Uh.

Previously kind of screwed on yes service time though, so.

They sure did.

Sterns had two media sessions, twenty three minute one on Tuesday fourteen, on Wednesday, a four minute one on with Martino.

Main take ways you personally take.

Don't listen to David Stearns media sessions.

He's not going to say anything.

I noticed vote of confidence for benj Yeah, I mean sort of wants Pete and Diaz back.

Maybe belief in Sega.

Well, I mean he sort of said all of these things, but also didn't say all of these things.

No Soto for first base, that's probably true.

Doesn't want to hire a GM for another off season.

I mean they're probably just gonna roote internally when that happens.

Starm Seine confident they'd have a good offseason.

I bet he does buying or selling Paul Skians, telling teammates he wants to be a Yankee.

Well, I mean it's not the Pirates, so I don't know.

Guys talk like this all the time.

It's I wouldn't put too much whatever they're posting in like the WhatsApp group or whatever.

From Philip Hi, guys missed you.

We took like a week and a half off.

I wanted to start off by saying, in serance, we trust.

I don't know why we give light to the wfan Mets fans who are calling for Stearn's head after this season.

I mean, I don't.

We don't give like.

It's part of the background noise of New York sports.

It just always has been, no matter what the sport, it's it's people get angry and they call up wf an.

Once upon a time on Amazing Avenue Radio Audio, there was a segment where you guys would predict Mets off season moves and now with more info in a super genius pbo what moves you predict the Mets will make this off season with the information they have.

Do you foresee a Steve Cohen full tilt FU move?

I mean, I don't think there's a player out there.

I mean trading for Schooble.

I guess right would qualify for that if he's actually available.

She may or may not be.

But there really isn't a move like that this offseason on the level of like you know, a Soto or an Otami or you know, I trids like I don't think you like trade for Ellie or Gunner Henderson or something like that.

Again, I think if school was available though being on it, but I don't.

It's very difficult to know.

Like that's the thing is they're saying, they're saying, which they will say up until the until Ken Rosenthal tweets that the having a deep in conversation with another team on Trek schoubl or whatever.

Uh So, on some level, it used to be easier to predict what they do because they were very clear sort of parameters in which Sandy Alderson and the Wilponds operated in the off season.

You know, if this was that would would they be?

They be in on Like Cody Bellinger.

He might even be too expensive, frankly, but like Cody Bellinger, a former MVP coming off a good season, multiple time All Star.

Like if Tody Bellinger was available for like a little bit more than the Curtis Granderson deal, that feels like a former Yankee they love that too, you know, solve center field, even though he's not a center fielder.

They need a center fielder.

We go get Cody Bellinger, former Yankee MVP, et cetera.

You know, there'd be like the one mid tier pitcher pitching veteran, and I joined Montgomery didn't fix he's been hurt too much recently.

But some older veteran on a three year deal or whatever, right like the Bartolo cologne, yeah contract, I mean they might.

Honestly, they might resign p Alonso.

They might.

I think they're slightly more likely than Stern's because it's not like that it's too much money, but it's also not that much money.

Yeah, this is the type of the yashy they like to make.

A Kaselin and.

Pete and Pete like Fred Wilpond would love Alonzo too.

I feel like he'd be there at the batting cages watching Pete hit dingers, putting his arm around and talking about Sandy Kofax.

Pete just nodding and vibing because it's Pete.

Yeah, I could see that.

Yeah, Like it gets like they're going to be And the Mets never made trades either, like even you know, could they do like a sneaky like you would never have predicted like the Adrian Houser Tyrone Taylor trade with that air of the Mets either.

So it does get it does get difficult.

From Daniel, I just wanted to say to Jared that I thought you did a good job articulating the social fan dynamic guarding Lindor.

I think there's a group that rationally dislikes them and reciprocal fandom that overstates his value and response to slash defense.

Ah.

Yeah, that's from Kevin.

Kevin wants more on the I want to hear your thoughts on Murakami, Okamoto and am I.

We talked about am I.

I mean, do you have strong thoughts on Murrikami and Okamoto specifically?

My strong thought on Markami is that I think that people that have very strong thoughts on Markami walk based on what he has been doing in Japan.

We're talking about a poor man's Joey Gallo some what he's been doing Japan for the last couple of years.

If you think he's more than that, it's because you're inferring injury.

You're inferring swing change things like that, and just some MAGG teams are really good at that now and it is.

Just the velocity numbers are.

He doesn't see a lot of.

Velocity, right, and there are players that have been able to adjust to that over time, you know, over whatnot.

So I don't want to completely roll that out.

My guess is that he is going to either get signed by a very smart team or a very stupid team, with very little in between.

I don't think he's going to get signed by a team.

Of average Texas Rangers, right.

I think maybe nay, but they do need a first basement, right.

But I have been wrong before on things like that, so I don't want to but it just seems unlikely to me that he's going to get signed by a team of average process because the teams of average process are going what is average?

Yes, what is average process?

In twenty twenty five, it's going, Oh my god, he can't hit fast, he can't hit philosoity in his own like everybody's gotten there.

You might not be able to talk.

Yes, he legitimately cannot do that at present.

Yes.

The second level thinking is now, is there a point in time in which he is going to be able to do that in the future.

That's that's what you have.

That's the call you have to make on him.

And if they do that, like he's obviously an extreme fly ball guy with power, so like the optimization good swing decisions, Yeah, good swing decisions.

There's not the loull hanging fruit here.

Is all going to be like swing mechanic related and the teams that really think they've got that one may see him in a different way than other teams.

But there's not a lot of teams.

There's not a lot of smart teams that think that they've got that one.

There's I think that they've got that.

I think there are a lot of this going back to the stuff I said about you know, Sniker and Albert, you're also this is one where you have your hitting coaches grinding video on him too.

I guess this is going to be an organizational organizational fit.

Yeh is not going to be just It is either going to be a team that, yeah, that thinks they can like do this change to his handset and his timing mechanism to get him on time in the zone, or it's gonna be already moreno saying I want to spend one hundred and fifty million.

Times diggers singers.

Yes, it's gonna be one of those.

Right, and it's like that's impossible for us to Yes, it could be the Mets.

It could be yeah, you know what.

The funny thing is, the Mets might be the only team that might sign him for either reason because might be owner going, hey, diggers, awesome, stars could be star Diggers, or it might be the front office going, okay, can work with this, I can work with this.

So I'm kidding a little bit there, but not a not a ton, A little a little sincerity there.

Yeah, So the Mets are kind of like them in the middle on him, which you know, but they're in the middle because they have some very polarized dynamics at work, or most teams who are in the middle or in the middle.

Because they look at the zone contact number.

Yes, so there's that.

That's if there's a team in the middle that signs him, it's probably the Mats.

It's probably like, very specifically the Mats, so Okamoto, I think.

So this is but this is also the false precision dynamic because there's this idea that Okamoto carries very little risk because you know, his KPIs indicate that he is more likely to hit major league pitching.

But like the act of hitting.

Major league pitching is like a somewhat unique thing, and it is kind of difficult to project, yes, even for guys who are considered to have relatively safe hit tools.

You see the prospects rather scussion manager been in ten D a couple of weeks ago.

Yep, So I do think there's a little bit of like the false precision certainty on Okamodo, be honest, but he projects that have a much less broad range of outcomes on both sides.

I think the so the falls that the fake the fake floor for him is at least probably the rosterable in the same we we kind of saw this with Massa.

Take Yoshida too, Like there was an idea that he had a safe hitting floor and he kind of is true, Like it is true he does have a safe hitting floor, but he's also like not very good.

So like, yes, he provides he does have like a little bit of value.

There is a little value add here.

It's not zero with him, but at the same time, like the difference between Yoshida basically just being a replacement level DH, which is kind of what I mean.

They literally just moth all them with an injury until they tradeed devors and they might do the same this year for all right now, but like there is like that little bit of value there and it is real value.

Right, He's a career better than we got rich here.

Your some of your smarter teams are just going to go, I can get this guy.

I can always trade for this guy.

Why would I do this?

Speaking of which, uh, we have an email from Darren knowing he was a consistent name drop last offseason.

What are your updated thoughts on Jared Young?

He dominated a triple A one to fifty five water and create a plus, but also to thirty three in the majors.

Do you believe they are viewing as a developmental project versus a Texis stretch squad NRI who could be DFA this offseason.

And I think they'll keep him around, I feel like, but if they absolutely need the spot.

Again, some of this is is you know, Jared Young remains pet ALNZO insurance on some level, which I think he probably was some last offseason as well.

Again, it's not Stearns is very much a guy that is fine, like trying to piece together a twenty percent better than the average platoon D eight up first base or platoon DH and could certainly fit into that.

Yes, well, at some point if they decide the.

Manager did not show a lot of interest in playing him.

He sure didn't, especially in the field at all.

Right, and it is still the same manager, So however much do you want to index that?

Yeah, I mean, look, he takes a good at bat.

He's like a left panded Like it's again, there's very fine margins with these profiles in general.

Yes, but he's probably around one hundred and ten and fifteen w RC platoon corner player.

At town, which is a difficult roster fit.

But also they might again some of it is yes, he was, he was right, and they're not paying him maybe five million or whatever.

It was right, the advantage of that, And it's also like they for seven and like look they I think after they signed him, they brought Alonzo back, they signed Winker, Marte was healthy for most of the season.

Like those guys are all gone now, so there's there's going to be a clear pallo.

Yeah, well is like.

I mean, again, that's it would be fine if you it wouldn't be, but it would be one thing if he was going to be the short side platoon DH with young, but like he's just gonna play against Ready if that happens, so, uh yeah, I don't think it.

I think.

I don't think anything has changed with the guards to our evaluation of Jared Yng.

He just needs to I did an organization that's going to play him one hundred and twenty games, and it's probably not going to be the twenty twenty six mets, but not impossible.

It's the twenty twenty six months.

If they do DFAM, I absolutely think he will get picked up by another team.

I will say that that I now.

I thought I navigated away, but I didn't.

Okay, well, I gets back into.

The world serious stuff.

We'll go to the Facebook group quickly.

Uh I coulda keep that up?

But are you gonna make me log in?

Really?

Do I have two factory authorizations sent upon this?

Metta wants to know that I'm not a robot, now wants me to That's not a bus?

Is that a bus?

I don't know if that's a bus or not.

I don't think it's a bus.

It looked like a one of those kias with the weird trunk.

Oh my god, we sent an aifications.

You're I couldn't you know what, I'm just going to do this on my phone, which is not going to make me go through seven steps to go to the Facebook group that I yeah said to me trying to log in.

I got to click on this anyway.

So great.

From Rob.

With the end of the Edwin Diaz potentially looming, I'm thinking about Mets closers.

Could you please rank these closers in terms of a their Mets performance be their overall performance.

See vibes from the enterity came for the Mets and d entrance minus points of their entrance included a hack theme song like Enersandman.

The closers are Das, Similia k Rod, Wagner, Benitez and Franco.

Today I learned Franco at the nineteen ninety three Mets and saves with twenty.

Well that was not a very good team.

Yeah, so, like a lot of people like John, Franco is a very divisive player.

Yes here, yep.

He was basically the only player that carried over from the worst team money can buy to the late nineties yeah two thousand team.

And because of that, fans like myself who were there the entire time kind of didn't really gravitate towards him in the way that.

Yeah, it's also like I think if.

He less intense about it, that he's free.

You know, it speaks to a very specific type of you know, he was always if I were collcrat, he was a big sup part of like the Sanitation workers Union.

Yeah, and he like wouldn't talk to Rick Reid and things.

He was a scab and like it was also awful, like he was around long enough to get like Scott Kashmir traded too.

So yeah, so I think that spoke to fans who maybe won't.

Yeah, and also like he's certainly like viewed.

You know, he's in the Metts Hall of Fame and things like that.

But like because of when I came of age as a fan, I thought, I'm as the Reds closer, right, Like obviously it was very good for them, but but like, yeah, I mean he pitched.

He pitched fourteen years for the mach we can do, we can do the Edwin Dia said a career three point one era.

Of those fourteen seasons one, two, three, four, five, six, uh seven, eight of them were under a three era two thousand and three.

He came back com from the injury.

You know, he had two like he had like ninety two he had a one point six four R.

Ninety six he had a one point eight three e R.

You know, he didn't strike anybody out until towards the end of his career when he came more of the change up spam guy and was also seeing mostly lefties.

Yeah, but like, yeah, I mean he was four hundred and twenty four careers say like he was a very good closer, even if it was not often an enjoyable experience.

Yeah, you know, if Edwin Diaz doesn't have the best closer seasons met this century, it's Jeer's familiar.

But obviously, you know there's a lot, right, there's the domestic violence.

They brought him back and wasn't good.

You know, they did the closer for the eighth inning thing with him, Kira.

There's the domestic violence also, just was it.

It was like a very omar man Iyah signing.

Wagner was obviously great closer for them, but you know, is I think mostly going to be remembered for not being able to get so Tagucci out in the n l c S.

I will mostly remember the mess writing into his contract they wouldn't offer him arbitration, so they didn't get a draft pick for him.

I said, they got Chris Carter Benitez.

Wasn't that they into the contract that they.

Decided they had.

I thought they didn't they have like a gentleman's agreement or something something like that.

Yeah.

Wow, Benita's was a great again, mostly known for his playoff fuck ups, and like he he blew some big games in the regular season too, But again it was a very good regular season closer.

I don't like.

I don't It's getting back to my original point in the first half of the show about how fan bases tend not to actually like they're like, I don't actually like.

I don't have like fond memories of most of these guys, even though they were all like legitimately good closers, Like, you know, Wagner's going into the Hall of Fame.

Franco is probably one of the five or six best closers not in the Hall of Fame.

Same with k Rod Carod might get in eventually, Like they've had facially good closers, they just you know, it wasn't always the greatest experiments experience for the Mets from Ronica with Depot in Colorado would just make it more or less likely they would trade for Nemo considerably more.

Yeah, I could see something else about yeah, and I could also I don't know what his thoughts are, right, Yeah, I mean obviously he is.

I don't know, Like, yeah, we.

Don't know at this moment.

Yeah, are I do you think there will be some impetus for him to come in and make some sort of like facially big move to like distance himself from previous Rocky stuff.

Interesting though.

I don't know that it'll be Brandon Nemo, but Brandon Nemo is certainly within the parameters of a move that I think would work for all parties.

And that's you know, the Metts Nemo Rocky's ownership in the Rockies front office, because I could see the you know, not that he's like, you know, grew up a Rockies fan from Wyoming.

Facially a good player, good Christian boy, not not he's got a lot of money left, but like the Rockies also like aren't opposed to spending that kind of money on players.

They're not cheap cheap.

They don't only spend money wisely, but they're not cheap cheap.

Again, I think a lot like I don't know if Nimmo wants to leave and the ball is really going to be in his court here, but broadly speaking, I do think it makes it more likely than if Schmidt was still there, just because they're like, the previous relationship here does matter to an extent.

Kia.

What would it cost the trade for Freddy Peralta?

Also?

Which free agents?

Starting pitchers?

Can you see the Mets signing?

I do?

I know the Mets are being winked a little bit to like from or sure.

I mean, they're going to do their diligions.

I don't see it.

Like, look, they're going to be in on They're going to be broadly in the orbit of cease fromber and King I got the other star.

But they're also going to be in on you know, Al Kantara, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Turk Schogle and trade right Preddy Peralta?

What is fal s far has got?

What one more year?

All right?

Maybe it's two and it's a very like, yeah, so it's one more year because they picked up the team option for eight million dollars.

Jesus, Look it's only one year, but it's only eight million dollars.

So it's going to be a significant amount of money.

You're also you know, this was by far for Alt his best season of his career, so you're paying a little bit for that.

You know, the he was about ten to fifteen percent better than league average the last three years before this, and dealt with some injuries.

Like it's very possible you're just getting one hundred and seventy inning three and a half hour a guy, which look they could use.

But you're going to be paying for the top five cy young vote getter even at you know, the one year of control, So it won't be a ton, but it's going to be a fair amount.

Like he's he's not a trap per se, but I think you're probably going to be paying more than what his actual projection for twenty twenty six looks.

Like, Yeah, I don't know.

I think you know, if you ask me today, I think I'm more lucky to sign a mind than anybody else.

But that market's also going to be very crowded.

So that also answers Kyle's best guess is for what the Mets do this offseason, Like I think, yeah, I think they'll be in none of my Yeah, I think that makes sense.

Again, like the advantage of the MPE players.

They don't carry pick compensation, and I think that should start to matter to them the way they're drafting now.

It shouldn't matter to you when it's Wan Soto.

It should matter to you when it's still in Cease.

Yeah, q A the p I know you guys have said Watson is a better pitching prospect than Santucci, But how would you guys compare him to Wenninger?

Is Watson the clear guy after the trio of McLean, Tong and Sproute?

I think so.

I think he's getting even a little under rated because he like left the public pitch tracking league like it's change up, actually took a step forward in double A.

So I mean Wenninger.

Yeah, I actually asked.

I was talking to Mikey the other day about the Yankee stuff, but he uh has been tracking Met's prospects all year, So I asked him.

Indeed, he's like, because I asked if I was a little bit low on am like I am I under rating Wenninger's second half.

I guess basically I'm not sure, Like I don't think he holds the velocity.

I think he's just a ninety three to ninety five guy, which is fine, but I don't like it's everything with Winninger is like a half grade worse than Watson to me, half grade to a grade, So I think that's the difference here.

Question for the podcast from Kurt, do you have any thoughts f REA MVP Conversation and DRC plus WARP versus WRC plus four versus OPS plus slash b War.

Thanks.

Yeah, I mean again, it's almost all of these are going to have large enough error bars, not error bars confidence intervals.

Let's say that, like even with I'll use Rally and Judge as an example because that's probably the best example for this, because all three sides handle catchers very differently.

But you're still going to find, like I think we probably had the widest gap, honestly, but you're going to find like a one to one and a half win gap, and like, I think that's enough to be confident to the level of whatever it was eighteen to twelve votes that Judge and they're not voting off that primarily, but some of them are.

But but uh, yeah, like that it's going to be even word like in then out, Like I don't know how what the Otani guy's actually think wasn't like Trey Turner higher and be war or something like that.

None of these are going to be very rarely.

Is there going to be a big enough gap here that you really can't justify if you want to vote for Rally versus judge.

Right, I mean Otani had the narrative case he pitched again that you know, he basically had Schwarmer and so to the season with the bat and then pitched right, Like, yeah, like Atani may just win it until he stops pitching, and again, it's fine, he's one of the best player we've ever seen.

But like, yeah, I look, I think the public availability of these metrics has eliminated the weird like he hit well in September down the stretch case for guys or even like I don't think you'd see two thousand and six Ryan Howard winning again, right, in a lot of ways, Peter A Lonzo had that season this year, right, Yeah, have quite as many home runs, but he had the gaudy RBI totals and things like that.

So I think that's the main Like I don't look, I know how all these stats measure things.

That's my job too.

And also I've just been conversant in the Sera Metrics Baseball Committee community for like twenty years now, and I've sat here through all the changes to WARP and f war and be War, which there have been many over those twenty years.

And again I think, like any like, it's going to generally sort you the good players from the average players and the bad players, and then the rest of it's up to you, members of the BBWAA.

But I mean, a lot of this is just vibes.

All right, that's your show for this week.

Either there might be more news next week or not, but either way back probably not.

They might claim some more relievers and we'll be here to talk about it on another edition.

But for all your kids out there, to