The days of the 2017 retail mania are gone and we aren't getting a Bitcoin blow off top because the buyers this time aren't degenerates, they are giants.

James Van Stratton joins me to unpack today's brutal market sentiment.

We discussed why 2025 has been a year of time based capitulation, why retail traders have been wiped out, the $500 billion sell side pressure from OGS, and why institutions aren't chasing price anymore.

They're just patiently waiting for you to sell and stick around to learn why the debasement trade is the the only thesis that matters when our politicians have no clue what they're doing.

All right, James Van Stratton, welcome back to Bitcoin for Millennials.

Thank you very much for having me, Brian.

To Dutch people speaking about Bitcoin whenever.

You tweet, I just quote post and say this is my quant.

And when when I look at like RSI almost at all time low and we're at like, let me check a time of recording 8788 K, then you know, I'm not really a technical analyst type person.

I just think about the big thesis.

But it kind of surprises me to see that RSI see the price and basically sentiment down the drain and and I feel like there's a lot of people that had certain short term expectations, they didn't see it.

So yeah, you're the guy to call.

So I'm happy, happy you're here.

Thank you for having me.

Yeah, well, technical analysis actually for me, been doing it for a few years.

Is it is astrology and I'm speaking to someone who was a market maker for the NASDAQ many decades ago and it's an indication of where assets will go into the future.

They're not great in terms of if you want to, they're great for a long term trajectory and like seeing the bigger picture.

But for the smaller day-to-day or smaller increments, no, I don't agree.

But yeah, I agree that there was a there was an image or chart shared by Julian Patel, who works at Global Macro, and he said exactly the same thing when the RSI is below 30 or this is what happens when the market path breaks down below the RSI below 30.

And I can get the chart up if we want to ship, just show it.

Yeah.

So Julian Patel is just showing the what what the market path is usually when Bitcoin breaks below an RSI this low and again, no choice perfect.

But I do agree on Bitcoin is bottoming it's chop.

The there's when you've got price based capitulation and time based capitulation.

Price based capitulation is we get the 70% drawdowns.

That's when it really feels like we've seen in the past cycles.

That's the gut wrenching stuff.

Or the time based capitulation is that we've seen quite a few times this cycle, like in March to 2024 to August 2024 of just six months of just sideways chop bottoming, slowing down.

But this chart would show that Bitcoin is close to bottoming and then it would resume upwards.

But the interesting thing is, which Julian says is, is if you believe in the four year cycle or not, and this is what it's coming down to now.

So Bitcoin finishes red this year.

It's got another what, 12 days and it finishes red.

The the four year cycle was dead.

And if Bitcoin goes on to make a new all time high before the next cycle theoretically starts, then again it's dead.

And he outlines that the four year cycle isn't even based on the halving.

It's based on business cycles, financial conditions, liquidity, and if you look at all the potential tailwinds coming for next year, it's very hard to argue against why Bitcoin isn't going to make an all time high.

The there is a clear market structure that changed on that October 10th liquidation crash.

So this chart that I've sent to you is it's a one day on bitcoins price since the Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024.

And I observed something which I did as a trading thing is a bit of fun.

But Bitcoin tends 10s is the dramatic word there to put in a bottom within the 1st 10 calendar days of the month.

And it's probably due to some rebalancing or liquidity that goes on at the end of the calendar month.

So Bitcoin 10s where these red circles are to put in a bottom, it's happened pretty much every single month since January 2024.

There are 12345 blue circles which indicate that Bitcoin didn't Bitcoin made a low after the 10th calendar day and Even so within that month it Bitcoin tends to go down within the 1st 1010 calendar days.

So it got to October Bitcoin the October flash crash.

The day was October the 10th, so that was the 10th day and I was like perfect bottom here.

And then obviously we get the 36% drawdown in total.

So I believe that October was a there was you got the MSCI exclusion of my strategy.

There was an announcement which got buried on October the 10th or 9th I think, and the China tariff with tweet with Trump, which the two catalysts which sent the the leverage and wiped out everything within crypto and it still isn't trading correctly Bitcoin.

So in November, the trading structure was completely changed.

So in November we didn't make a low until November 21st.

So that's why I observed the market structure didn't look correct.

But again, then back into December of this month, Bitcoin made a low on December the 1st that's, I don't know, 85,083 thousand.

So it hopefully looks like we've regained this market structure.

But when you look at the price action, you can see loads of bots happening.

You know, where everyone puts the picture of bar and it goes up side down and it doesn't look healthy.

But again, I don't know if you can say that look that we're heading towards Christmas next week and liquidity starting to be pulled.

Also when I used to work at a hedge fund, it gets to the year end and you're like, it's just time to take risk off the table like we've booked in profits.

It's not worth trying to play around here.

And when at the beginning of next year, when all the hedge funds and come out with how we've done for 2025, pretty much all of them were underperformed gold in AI related stuff and gold, it was a very good year if you could handle the drawdowns within the AI related equities.

Gold and metals had a sublime year.

But again, if you look over a five year time period, gold and silver have really underperformed still.

And then if you, if you measure gold against Bitcoin against gold, Bitcoin hasn't made a, it made a brief all time high in December 2024 or January 2025.

But realistically it's been in a bear market against gold for five years.

So Bitcoin hasn't really moved I believe in the past five years, even though on a nominal USD basis it has, but gold I always benchmark it against.

So this year has been a very chop year.

We've gone up 20% or below 20% from the opening candle of 9095 thousand.

And the main selling point or the main sell side spot pressures will come from long term holders O GS.

I've said I know 2O GS that have sold a lot of coins and it wasn't over a one day basis, it was over an 18 month period.

Divide $100,000 as a long term target.

They needed the ETF liquidity to come in.

Yeah, you're obviously getting these options strategies.

These cover cool strategies where you can deposit say into Iber and now do the options of strategies because I bet now is so liquid.

So there are reasons why the selling pressure has happened, but I think the stat is $500 billion of spot sell side pressure has come into the market.

And that sounds, it's enormous for the asset, but there's obviously a buyer or buyers as well.

So this market is looking like people aren't chasing the price anymore.

So in 2017 and 2021 when you get those blow off tops and I was one of them, I think I bought my first Bitcoin eight years ago today actually I bought the Pico top of 2017 and I was chasing that price action.

I think because it's quite an institutional asset now, it doesn't trade.

So retail mania like the institutions can get that bid or that price that they are waiting for, they don't actually have.

They can be very patient with it and I think that's how it's starting to trade now.

So how I expect next year, I expect Bitcoin and gold to kind of, I'd be shocked for gold to have another stellar year and I'd be shocked for Bitcoin to have another down to flat year.

It's quite unconventional.

This year has been unconventional because Bitcoin has largely traded flat, which we have never, ever seen before.

We've either seen explosive price action or just an absolute carnage dumpster fire of price.

So I think wiping out all this leverage, retail leverage, there's retail leverage and there's institutional leverage.

The market has broadly wiped out the retail leverage.

I think now the institutional leverage can come in at a much cleaner price.

Like you had Vanguard accept the Bitcoin ETFs after this leverage got wiped out.

So the market, yes, isn't trading so healthily, but I think a lot of that retail speculation is largely gone, which I think from an institutional standpoint is very good to say.

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Bitcoin is in this monetization phase where basically people are figuring out, you know what is this worth and that's why people still trade it.

They do it on leverage, etcetera, right?

Like I think that when you do that you don't you don't understand what Bitcoin is.

So eventually I think the best thing to do is to just be a long term hodler.

But along the way, you know, obviously the, this price volatility over long enough time frame it, it, it goes up.

But I think just kind of like having a picture as to why that's happening.

I think is, is very important.

And so I, I heard you say a few things like things like healthy, like healthy price action.

I, I wonder what do you or or not healthy price action?

But I, I wonder what do you mean by that?

Like how, how, how do you explain that?

But also people say like, OK, Bitcoin is like institutionalized, right?

Like institutions could play with the price and, and and maybe they they actually play with the leverage in order to get like lower entries, etcetera.

How, how would you talk through having like a long term conviction, just knowing what this is and be less worried about, yeah, what people are doing with the price?

Quite quite simple inflation compounds and the compounding effects of inflation specific specifically since COVID has been like monumental and again like the Bank of England today had just cut rates 25 basis points.

It was a 5/4 split again, meaning that there is no clear decisive thinking from these these talking heads.

They haven't got a clue.

Inflation is still nowhere near target.

They just raise taxes and we're becoming more and more of the surveillance state.

So Bitcoin with a long term thinking, it's not just about Bitcoin, it's about history.

It's about learning what's happened in previous empires, what's what's happened in previous regimes, What happens when the debt to GDP exceeds 100%?

What happens when the the debt interest exceeds the the defense of war, defense of education, The interest payments become a bigger and bigger share.

You're really seeing society crumble.

All of these things that get included into it.

So it's not just a silo Bitcoin thesis, it's a much bigger global macro thesis.

And yeah, that that's how my conviction stays so strong that I believe that politicians with short term governments as well, the only thing they can really do is try to appease the the majority, which are benefit people want benefits or people on the lower end of the spectrum.

And that usually means printing money or just free handouts.

So yeah, that that's where the conviction comes from.

So it is that debasement trade theory that now everyone's talking about, that we've been talking about for 10 years plus.

So yeah, that's where the conviction comes from.

And yeah, so as an investor or trader, I've tried to try, have traded extensively and I've tried to beat Bitcoin and it's extremely difficult to even my year to date performance on trading AI equities has been OK, but it's not being great.

And it's the, it's the mental stimulation of trying to beat the market is so hard.

So again, beginning of next year, you'll see loads of hedge funds probably underperform the S&P and under underperform gold.

So yeah, it's it's a real testament to be able to hold an asset 40% down.

Bitcoin went down 40% in about 45 days.

But it's not about the percentage corrections anymore, which I've said a few times in COVID, for example, Bitcoin went down 6 to 3050% correction.

The uncertainty was obviously COVID, not so much the price.

And we've done a 40% correction, but you're now seeing a 40 to $45,000 nominal drop.

That's the gut wrenching part that you like bloody hell, like that's the net worth in USD that's come down and it and it helps.

So yeah, that that's how the conviction remains.

And but to have a big, you also have to have an allocation of your portfolio portfolio to cash.

Like it's just so important because that one reduces the volatility and then people go, oh, your cash isn't yielding anything, say two 3%.

But like, it doesn't need to yield anything because you've got Bitcoin or a derivative of Bitcoin that you know, or ace the inflation.

Yeah.

I do think that retail is kind of tired with maybe not only investing but also Bitcoin, crypto in general, right?

Like, you know, we had FTX along the way and stuff like that, that just really pushed people away.

So you mentioned you don't really foresee like a like a blow off top or like the classic, you know, you have this classic psychological chart, right, where it just goes to this blow off top and then down, etcetera, disbelief, all these things.

Yeah.

What what do you think about that?

Like does does retail ever return?

Like will they ever return and will we ever see a blow off top?

Or is it more like like a chop solidation up side, up side and then just?

Yeah.

Kind of kind of slowly grind up over time.

Well, the retail, yeah, the retail phenomenon as we know it from 2020 and 2021 and 2017 probably isn't going to return to that magnitude.

It also obviously coincided with the huge COVID stimulus packages.

But no, there's too many.

There's been too many frauds, too many wipeouts, too many things that have gone on.

And even in the October liquidation event, some of these coins effectively went to zero because the majority of the volume liquidity was just market makers.

They're the ones that are essentially propping up for these, these worthless coins.

And it really showed.

It was like the emperor with no clothes, even though these coins aren't emperors, they're just no clothes.

So I think retail have now migrated over to AIAI is the new exponential trend and I do agree with it.

Again, mainstream media run with AI bubble fears, so sends it down.

Oracle, Broadcom, these are AI equities have a bit of bad news go about it or a bit of debt and the credit defaults.

What's blow out that sends market jitters?

Bitcoin is considered a levered, A levered tech play.

So that goes down further and then Micron, for example, technologies have blowout earnings.

Bitcoin kind of goes back up again this morning and it just shows how clueless the market really is.

And then why it's different.

It is different in the cycle is for example like long term holders.

And Glasno defines them as anyone that's held Bitcoin for 155 days.

Usually you get these huge up and downs with the price, like they are smart money relatively and they'll sell into price strength.

So they'll go, they'll accumulate in the bear and sell into the the bull.

That happened in 20/13/2017 and 20/21.

This cycle we have 3 periods of long term holders selling, which was the March 2024 all time high where we got the ETF approval or the launch.

You had the November 100K with Trump and then you had the all time high in October.

Those were three periods where huge long term holders were selling.

That's a complete different market structure to anything we've seen in previous cycles.

So yes, I do expect a chopped solidation consolidation.

We barely bitcoins barely spent any time in the 80 thousands when we ran up from the Trump victory.

So we probably need to stay here for a bit of time.

But yeah, the the, the the US equities are going to dictate what Bitcoin does in the short term.

The Russell 2000 IWM small caps usually, well, not usually every time it makes an all time high.

Bitcoin makes an all time high.

It recently made a bit an all time high and Bitcoin was 30% down.

So there is completely dislocation within the market and this is a Bitcoin specific issue.

I don't know if it's also the metals have stolen that liquidity that hedge, but I do believe at some point it will run back up in the next say six months.

But obviously that then that's your opportunity.

Your opportunity is there's a massive undervaluation of Bitcoin or it's the dislocation and you know it's going back there.

So that's the time to to accumulate in my opinion.

Yeah, it's nothing more than dislocation and money has Bitcoin works on the velocity of money.

And then we also had the treasury companies this year, and that was a huge way of pulling liquidity out of Bitcoin into treasury companies.

So I think a lot of people took their money out of Bitcoin, put it into treasury companies as they saw it as higher beta and largely has underperformed.

So that was another reason, another reason why the sentiment is so bad.

And I think if you go on crypto Twitter or whatever it is and you did a poll not on your account because you have Bitcoiners, but if you do it like a general quick crypto account, it's like, what allocation do you have to spot Bitcoin?

It is going to be disgracefully low.

Yes.

Disgracefully low, yeah.

They're still hoping.

Yeah.

And hoping.

Yeah, and that's why the fear and greed index is so low.

And even the US equity, fear and greed is so low.

And that's sitting six, 7% below.

It's all time high.

Yeah.

And you've got Trump actively trying to pump the market.

The midterms are a huge moment for the Republicans.

So he'll have to come out in July around then June, July, August and go for the markets because he'll need the vote.

And so, yeah, I'm really, really not worried.

And I think it's healthy to have this leverage correction.

And yeah, the selling was also the four year cycle narrative.

It's in hindsight, if I was trading this, yeah, it would have made sense to probably sell into that October high.

But again, it's it's you will make more money buying and holding than just trading this.

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I think this is also a lesson that you have to learn.

I mean, I think I learned this around 2017, right, that huddling is better than than than trading and specifically just focusing on this long term thesis of basically inevitable Fiat money devaluation that is accelerating also, right?

And like even even comparing it to, you know, Bitcoin trades like a nest, like like the NASDAQ, I think, I think it was even Luke Roman who said something similar like this week.

And maybe I, I, I am, by the way, personally fully wrong in terms of timing the market because I am a huddler, right?

So I am not a, I'm not a trader.

So what you're saying is like, you know, if you believe in a four year cycle and you psychologically followed everyone who also believed in a four year cycle that it was a great time to sell, right.

But like I said, I think I learned in 2017 that all all the Bitcoin you sell is going to be harder to to make back of over time.

Well, Michael Saylor, my strategy is the perfect example of why Hodling prevails.

So in so his revenue business on his software and analytics, I think give or take generates about $500 million of revenue, give or take something like that.

In 2013 it was about 500 million.

So the revenue of the business has stayed exactly the same over 10 to 15 years.

He now holds 60 billion fifty to $60 billion worth of Bitcoin and held zero in 2013.

So it's like the flat line of the of the business has not stayed the same, but he's grown 50 to $60 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings.

So he couldn't have done that trading that.

But what was really interesting was in 2020 when he started in August, so he had August, September, October and then five months to buy.

They managed to buy $1 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks.

He's bought a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin per week.

Yeah, I mean, but this also shows that we are so extremely early, right?

Like when when I heard sailor talk in the beginning, I just felt like, wow, this is very interesting.

And I think a lot of companies are going to follow.

Well, there's a there's maybe I don't even know how many companies, but over 100 companies that kind of want to follow a similar strategy.

But the fact that he was able to acquire this amount of Bitcoin and let's say the rest of the serious market, the serious companies are are still asleep to literally this strategy.

And strategy, like you said, it's, it's it's a way to protect yourself from the inevitable fee of money debasement in the future, right?

And and that is something that I keep coming back to is like, yeah, that, that is the same on a personal level as it is on a company level, as it is on a nation state level.

So that's kind of what helps me to to, to huddle over the long run.

Yeah, what needs to happen?

Say bitcoins had a red year.

Like no one's generated wealth over a one year time frame.

I think Warren Buffett made the majority of his money off the age of 65 or something.

So yeah, this isn't a trade.

No, exactly.

Trade, long term trade, it's just not a thing on just A1 year performance and people need to get their heads out their asses and actually think about what they're what they're doing.

So yeah, that's that's where we are.

I've got a few more charts.

Yeah, go ahead.

I send you the next one was.

Technical pricing.

This is the technical analyst chart.

Again, I don't put much to Tai like it.

I like to see where we are in terms of just sentiment and where Bitcoin goes.

But the death cross, the dead, the dreaded death cross, which is when the 50 day moving average falls below the 200 day moving average and it will is meant to say it is over, the asset is dead.

But that was the 4th time bitcoins put in a death cross this cycle, and the three times before that it's marked the bottom pretty much.

So it was October 2023 ish again.

Bitcoin then moved from 25 to 70 over the next six months.

The yen carry trade in August 2449 thousand to We then went higher to yeah.

Then we had the Trump election in November went to 100 April 2025, the tariff tantrum bottomed out around 76, went on to go higher and now we're here again.

It bottomed around 80,000 when the death cross happened.

And so yeah, we Bitcoin would need to get above its 200 day, 365 day moving averages, key moving averages and that's what you would be looking for in the short term.

Bitcoin is now 87,000 ish and there's been so much macro data this week.

You've you've got you have the jobs data, which shows a softening labor market and that's pretty much happening everywhere.

And then you got inflation data in the US coming out in about half an hour.

And markets just love certainty.

That's all they need.

And because we had the government shutdown, which is obvious, which was another point where the liquidity disappeared, the macro data wasn't available.

So obviously that's just more uncertainty.

So once all this data and comes out, Bitcoin should start trading higher.

Japan are doing a rate hike again.

It won't have anywhere near the same effects as the yen carry trade in August because now markets are way too on it now.

And they, they may have missed it a bit.

They're too on it.

That may have been priced in a bit.

So yeah, over the short term, there's still a lot of macro stuff to come out.

But again, it should clear up.

And then the big news is the end of year options expiry.

End of year we've got Derabit and I bet, I bet now has just on options open interest.

I think it's beating Derabit now, which is incredible after a one year performance and Darabit.

I see it as more as the crypto native traders and I bet it's more institutional, but I bet have a huge $85,000 put wall meaning dealers have been selling sport or futures by hedging it where institutions are going for the 85 investors are going for the $85,000 strike price.

Bitcoin held $85,000 this week.

I think $85,000 is the big number to hold until the end of year.

I think if Bitcoin holds $85,000 will then start to run up.

But to show how big the options market is getting, last year on Derabit the options were end of year was a was 14 billion.

This year it's 23 billion.

So it's growing a lot and that's now not even counting I bet which has got say 2025 billion as well.

So the options market, the derivatives market will get bigger.

This will stifle price volatility, which is a good thing if we know is the volatility trends down on an asset, institutions can allocate towards it and allocate towards it in a bigger size as well.

So this is all perfectly normal stuff for an asset.

Yeah, an asset turning institutional.

Yeah.

Well, and, and I think I think that's a good point because I didn't think about, you know, they're, they're still an absolutely finite supply of this asset, right.

So if it becomes more attractive for more institutions and also more clear why they should allocate to it, then, yeah, Bitcoin has something that any other asset does not have.

Right.

And I think, you know, I always felt like, OK, it's kind of a pity that the finance pros figured it out.

But I also think that through this, there's there's only one way for Bitcoin to exist forever, in my opinion.

And that's true becoming financialized, like it's kind of inevitable, right?

Like any, anyone could adopt.

I don't think they really, I don't think they really figured it out, to be honest.

Well, maybe Larry Fink has or Even so the ETF on IBIT is like the best revenue products for BlackRock.

Yeah.

And the banks are going to collateralize Bitcoin and they don't really need to work out what Bitcoin is on a fundamental basis.

If they're like, if it's going to make me money, I will adopt it.

I will use it.

That's why Jamie Dimon is like, I didn't care if I believe it or not.

He'll be like, can I make money off it?

If the answer is yes, it gets in, it gets adopted.

And that's.

But that's the joke, right?

That's more my point.

Like that's the joke.

Like they they don't get it, they still adopt it, then it never goes away.

More people figure out what it really is, etcetera.

And so it's it's just a phase in that sense.

OK, Yeah, yeah.

Then I yeah, then I agree.

So yeah, I think there is so much stuff to be excited for.

You got the NASDAQ going almost 24/7, which pretty much eliminates the need for crypto because crypto largely is for gambling and there's always a need for gambling.

You've seen it with polymarket, all these kind of prediction markets.

Crypto is just another avenue of gambling.

So with the NASDAQ going 24/7, that kind of makes crypto a bit more obsolete.

I saw a few tweets being like even more worried about crypto in general because it's like, where's that other use case coming from?

Because I would rather trade liquid stocks than illiquid crypto.

It just, it just makes sense.

So another narrative is is losing for that Bitcoin dominance just hit 60% and and the last time Bitcoin dominance was at 60%, the price was at 100,000.

So it shows that Bitcoin is actually generating strength against the crypto market, even though the price is $15,000 down on it.

So yeah, I think this is a long stage recovery after a violent sharp drawdown.

And and yeah, I think it's going to be a very exciting year next year.

So we didn't crash, we're just reloading.

Yeah, I think it takes time for bottoms to form and I think the choppy the the highest amount of choppiness is at the bottom.

Yeah, yeah.

All right.

I, I know you need to go.

I want to ask you 2 short questions or you can pick from this one.

What What makes you most bullish for the future or what are the biggest challenges you see?

What makes me more most bullish is more like our UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has just tweeted about them.

We've now had the 6th interest rate cut since the election.

But the the idiot doesn't realize that the UK is going into a recession.

So that makes me really bullish that these politicians are just clowns.

And I think some form of quantitative easing will pick up at some point, maybe in the second-half of next year.

And it won't be a big print.

It'll be a gradual print.

But that is a tailwind for Bitcoin.

And my concern is, yeah, it's, I think you have to, I'm not so worried about quantum as a as a whole.

I'm worried about the, we need to reach a consensus on quantum and we need to start agreeing on stuff.

And that's where my concerns are.

I think we need to be adults and grown-ups with these conversations and we need to start talking about it because even if it is a few years away, we need to lay the groundworks now.

I agree.

This is also something I want to dive into more with the conversations here.

But yeah, for now, thanks a lot for your time.

Thanks a lot for this update.

We're last time we said we should do this more regularly.

Now I'm going to say it again, we should do it more regularly.

But now let's really do it, man.

So thanks a lot.

That's fine.

You know where I.

Am all right thank you I hope you enjoyed this episode.

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I hope to see you for a next episode, bye.