Welcome in to Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where the Bills are at.

We're presented by fan Duel, make every moment more.

Coming up, after three weeks and an unblemished one lost record, where do the Bills stand in ESPN's Football Power Index?

You might be surprised.

While the schedule might be perceived as a bit soft, right now, will it properly prepare the Bills for bigger games?

Later?

Steve is quizzed on Bills versus NFC South history, and we'll have our one burning question.

Strike up the band.

The Saints are marching in, happy to tell you you're in the right place if you're looking for Bills by the Numbers.

He's Bills Wall of Famer Steve task around Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and three weeks into the season, Buffer is three and zero, along with just six other teams in the NFL and just two others in the AFC, in the Chargers and Colts, respectively.

There is a lot of football left, as we know.

But Steve, were you resolutely confident the Bills would be three to zero at this point?

No, and obviously the obviously question mark was Week one, right out of the gate, a really tough, hard fought game.

The Bills came back from fifteen down, fifteen down seemingly impossible with five minutes to go in that game, and yet they got it done.

The Jet game and the Dolphin game did not surprise me.

But that opening game weekend, that opening weekend win, I think is huge.

It is big, and it's already shaping up to mean even more knowing a one in two Ravens team is playing a one in two Chiefs team here in Week four.

Bills fans will be glued to that four to twenty five game later in the weekend.

But yes, Week one was a coin flip.

I think most people would have agreed with that.

When we were talking to Bills fans leading up to that game, they were saying, it's a coin flip game.

So to be three and oh and say, ah, three and oh is in the bag, you're kidding yourself.

It was not at that point in time.

But the fact remains, the Bills took care of business and here they are at three and oh, which is a good thing.

I knew it was a possibility because we knew that, you know, this is a good football team.

Offensively, they're going to be able to score ports and certain points, and certainly they have.

But she knew too that Baltimore Ravens team has the exact same aspirations the Buffalo Bills do this season.

Yeah, and it was going to be a tussle.

As we often do here on Bills.

By the numbers, we check the analytics, or at least the experts that compile the analytics, and ESPN's Football Power Index has your three and oh Bills rank as the number three team, which, to remind everyone, Football Power Index measures a team's true strength on a net points scale along with an expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral field.

I know it's a lot, but they compiled it.

Bills come out third in their rankings after three games played here in the NFL regular season.

Ahead of them the Detroit Lions, who sit right behind the Bills in points per game at thirty two and a half points per game, but just beat Baltimore on Monday Night football in Baltimore's building.

They are atop the Football Power Index rankings.

Next a team the Bills beat in Week one and the Lions just beat them.

The Baltimore Ravens, who are a top the league in scoring at forty point five points per game, but they ranked second in Football Power Index Detroit number one, Baltimore number two, Buffalo number three, and the Football Power Index.

Are you surprised in any way, shape or form that this Football Power Index has the Ravens and Lions superior to Buffalo at this point in the seaon?

No, that's fine, I'm fine with it.

Listen, Baltimore has looked good.

If Baltimore is missing anything, it's some intangible quality about not being able to play under pressure or with from a deficit.

They have struggled to play from behind.

They have struggled to hold a lead and not close out games, which is why they get into trouble lading close cap.

They were way out in front.

We've seen it before and as we've heard about in the subsequent aftermath of the Bills collapse in Week one for the Ravens, John Harbaugh's teams have blown multi double digit leads in the fourth quarter seventeen times over his course of his career.

That's a line you're as head coach of the Ravens.

It's a lot.

It seems like there is something there that's missing.

When you put Baltimore in against an average or bad football team, they lump them up.

But when you get them in a game where they have to play from behind or have to hold off a team late, when all of a sudden, now they have to go back in and make a play and close a game out, they struggle.

They have struggled with that.

That's the only thing that seems to me Baltimore lacks.

They've got a really strong roster, an outstanding an elite quarterback, a powerful running game, a playmaking defense.

They're big on both sides of the ball up front, so I don't have a problem.

They're one and two.

I get it.

They've lost a couple of games, but.

They're number two in the power rankings because they score in forty a game and a half forty and a half a game.

So I'm I'm okay with it because it doesn't mean anything in the big scheme of things.

You still got to do it on the field.

I continue to be impressed with that club and their roster, but there's something that keeps raising its head that they can't get shake.

They can't shake it off.

And if it continues this season, like if it's not just a one off or it's not just against the Lions and the Bills.

They're gonna get the moniker of crunch time crumblers, because they crumble when the game is on the line in crunch time.

And to your point, this is not a team that comes back from a deficit and pulls games out at the end.

All that often their quarterback, who is a two time MVP and is great at racking up wins in the regular season, he short circuits at some of the most critical times of football games.

You can go back and look it up and you will find multiple examples.

And then couple that with a head coach who sometimes gets conservative in critical situations and it costs his football team.

Look no further than Week one with the Bills when he punted.

It's going to be an interesting litmus test this week because there are two teams in the aspects of the game that we're talking about, are on different ends of the spectrum.

Baltimore solid, powerful, mark well built on the well built roster.

The Chiefs down a little bit in talent, a little bit long in the tooth that can some key spots, fewer really outstanding players injured, getting some guys back a little unsure also one and two.

Baltimore has the moniker of being a big moment crumbler.

The Chiefs just the opposite.

They rise to the occasion.

Mahomes finds a way.

He always puts the ball back in your court.

You never often leave him.

It's hard to beat those guys that by double digits.

And if you give him an opportunity.

Right, if you leave the door open, he will beat you.

So two teams that are really at the opposite ends of the spectrum.

We're talking about Baltimore, who can't close out a game and can't come from behind against the Chiefs, who you even driving a wooden steak through their heart doesn't kill him sometimes, right, I mean, they never die.

You better have a wooden steak, garlic and everything else you need, yeah for a vampire, right.

So silver bullet.

But for whatever it is, they seem to be like immortal in that case, right, you can't kill those guys.

So this is this game against the Chiefs and the Ravens in Kansas City this week is really interesting for that.

Obviously, Bills fans are like going gush, who do I cheer for?

Or more likely who do I want to cheer against the most is really the question.

It's and it's a good one.

But it's a interesting game, even outside of the ramifications of how much the Bills are tied to those two franchise over the last handful of years.

And side note, by the way, Detroit looks pretty dang good out of the gate.

Here, We'll see if they can sustain it over four month period.

Because Detroit's a good team.

They came out of the shoot hot last year and then injuries crippled them in the second half of the season.

The Bills don't face the Lions this year, but I'm curious to see how they make their way through this season.

Yeah, they hit some major pitfalls last year.

They did.

They got a bunch of guessers.

Now their defense is playing the way they thought it would last year before they lost you know, Aiden Hutchinson and the rest.

Their offense continues to still score at a high pace at high level.

I mean they scored fifty and thirty eight in subsequent weeks.

Yeah, the Lions are for real again and they're going to be standing there at the end.

I think the FPI index has both the Lions and Ravens with superior defensive contributions to their expected points average.

Would you say it's fair to consider Baltimore and Detroit's defensive units superior to that of the Bills defense right now?

Yes, I am it's fair.

I'm not saying that.

Tell me why third down defense for one pass rush.

The thing that the Bills defense does have going forward is deposing offense, at least in the last couple of games, has really felt like they've had to keep their foot on the gas to keep up with the offense.

So they've faced a desperate offense, so they have to put the ball at risk.

The Bills have taken advantage of that once again this year.

We're getting turnovers that key and crucial moments.

Their red zone defense has struggled, so third down defense, red zone defense, and.

Run defense, which granted was skewed by week one, but after three weeks still last in the league in rushing yards against at one fifty six a game, and last in the league in yards per carry average against at six point two, So that number has to get whittled down over the course of the season, and red zone defense absolutely has to get better.

This was a defense that was pretty good in red zone defense last year.

That has not been the case through the first three weeks.

So for all those reasons, you have to kind of shrug your sho even Bills fans, you gotta shrug your shoulders say, yeah, right now, the Detroit and Baltimore getting better defensive play than the Bills are.

And I just have to say that I can't say I'm If somebody told me at the beginning of the year, would you put Baltimore's defense in Detroit's defense ahead of Buffalo's, I probably would have said yes.

And the reason why is because, yes, the Bills defense has better talent on it right now than it did last year, but it hasn't been it hasn't gelled yet, it hasn't been maximized yet, and it hasn't gained enough experience yet because a lot of the new talent that has been added to Buffalo's defense is young, inexperienced, or not even on the field yet.

See Maxwell Harston.

Selden Jackson, yeah, the rest.

So I'm okay with it right now, not to mention Michael Hoyt and Larry okunjob.

So let's get to the second half of the season and we can revisit this conversation and hopefully we're talking differently because the Bill's defense has made strides, They're better in critical areas, and their young talent is emerging.

Yeah, that would be the ideal effects of.

The development of Dion Walker and TJ.

Sanders.

Let's see the ripple effects of that and the return of Hoyt and Ogenjoby to the lineup and where they fit in, and hopefully see how that affects things.

I don't think there's any question Bills fans have every right to end the team.

I think does expect better and better and better and better as this season goes along from their defense, and I think they're going to get it.

So that's where we're at.

You're right, I mean, and it's correct to say that the Lions in Baltimore's defenses have performed better at this early stage of the year.

But I think most of us who watched the team closely, you and I in particular, obviously see good things on the horizon.

So is it safe to say you're bullish that the defense, maybe by second half of the season, is showing to be markedly improved.

It would be great if they got to a point where they didn't have to depend on some outlandish turnover in the right moment.

You know, if they could just say, you know, let's get a stop, get them off the field on third down sixty of the time, fifty five percent of the time, you know, hold them to that, that would be awesome.

Of course, the Jet game, that just didn't convert a single third down.

But then the Dolphins cover ten to fifteen.

Yeah, they were all over it.

So there's work to do a little bit of roller coaster riding in that, you know, statistically speaking.

But.

I'm I'm with you, I'm I'm bullish on where this defense is headed, because it does seem we are seeing some improvement individually across different spots.

It's un collective.

Yeah, that collection has got together.

And look, this is a this is a coaching staff whose greatest asset might be its player development.

So let's see where that goes in not only developing young, inexperienced players with boatloads of talent, but where it goes in terms of getting the entire eleven man unit to gel and play better football collectively, down to down, series to series and then ultimately game to game.

Baltimore also has the best special teams rating of those three teams Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo through three games.

Do we see Buffalo's special teams capable of being a bigger contributor as the season unfolds as well?

Yeah, there's two things that I'm looking at, Well, maybe three NET.

Punt could use a shot in the arm.

It's down around thirty seven right now.

They didn't punt very much and they've switched punters, so remember that, so there's all that going on.

There's an adjustment there.

I like to see that settle in and get it up above forty yards per game NET.

That would be great.

Also, kick coverage, I would like to see them be a little bit better on that now that.

It's been a little subpar to three games.

Like we talk about it all the time, it's tough because you can't practice that play that football play full speed.

So all of the well, well.

Hold on a second.

I would agree with you on punk cup.

You can't practice that full speed because it's forty yards and you're running play after play and that's hard to do.

But on kick coverage, I think with the new rules, you don't have to run nearly as far as Steve it's differ.

Could probably run that full speed in practice a half dozen times.

Yeah, you can run at full speed.

You can't tackle twenty thirty yards, You're not.

It's hard enough to find really good special teams players that will play front lines.

It's fifteen times harder to find guys who can play it in practice against your first team special teams unit to give them a look of what it's going to be like in the game.

Okay, so you're practicing against guys who don't play special teams, who don't want to play special teams and are doing it just to get it off their plate.

I'm not saying anything about it, but that's the way football players are.

It's a play and notoriously obviously you could never do it back in the day when I did it, when they're wedge busting and all that stuff, and you got the there's just you did you walk through that stuff.

And the only way you got good at kickoff return was if your defense stunk can start giving up points.

You got reps during the game.

That's how you got good at it.

The worst defenses in the league notoriously had the best kickoff return team in the league.

So it's reps.

So you're right, they can practice a little better than they have in years past, but I still think and that's something they got to do then, Yeah, because they got to get better on kick kickoff coverage.

And to your point, they're playing a team this week that gets a lot of opportunities because, yeah, their defense gives up a lot of points.

Their defense, you get a lot of kick returns.

Yeah, they I mean they spent the whole day on the field against Seattle this last week.

Is it was.

Thirty eight to six at halftime, that's like it was like six kickoffs.

Seven kickoffs.

So they get a lot of practice.

They got to go in a practice.

They're going as a team that's had a lot of practice through three weeks, and it's something to be mindful of because they've got to They've got to bring that average down, right, because the first kickoff against the Dolphins last week comes out to midfield.

We've seen other long returns in the first two weeks, so kick coverage has got to buckle down.

And I think also you'd like to see Brandon Codrington up his punt return average right now.

It's at five point three, right, got to get that up closer to ten.

I think last year he averaged twelve.

Oh, so that's got to that's got to start to look a little better as well.

Yeah, so yeah, I think that's a little bit on.

They've faced some some teams that.

Huh, well this face.

I just I have not noticed Codrington making bad decisions back there.

No, I don't think it's a bad well, I don't.

Well, he's had one muff all season, right, hopped on the ball, didn't lose it.

That's good.

That's not a decision.

That's an execution issue.

Right.

It counts as a return with one yard or zero yard, right, so that goes into the average.

So as long as he keeps making good decisions back there, you got to trust that he's still the same guy.

And there hasn't been very many opportunities for him to catch it and get and get loose.

It's less about Codrington than it is about the guy's blocking the gunners.

You got to you gotta give him a chance in space.

You gotta have, you gotta have he's got to have some space back there.

So there's a lot in it.

But I'm I'm with you.

I think the special teams, particularly in the game like this that may be the test for this group is that kickoff return because of the reps that the Saints have gotten, because of all the points they've given up, and what I know about what that means for a group who gets better and better at it.

And you have to believe the same special teams unit is going to be motivated to show up better than they did last week against Seattle when they gave up a ninety five yard punt return for a touchdown and a sixty yard kickoff return that led to a very short field for Seattle's offense last week.

Finally, there are some Bills fans that are concerned, whether it's valid or not, that with the Bill's schedule so soft in the front half, it might not have the Bills battle hardened for the postseason.

Any concern on that front for you.

No, So much happens during a football season, with seventeen games, practices and all that.

You're going to face challenges that are really diverse.

Even if you're lumping teams up, you're going to be in it and learn things about your team.

You're going to overcome challenges.

I'm not worried about that at all.

The season, whether you're thirteen and oh or three and thirteen.

Hardens you.

And this is a team that has made the playoffs each of the last six years.

There is barely anyone on this roster, aside from the rookies, who does not have playoff experience.

Even Michael Hoyt won a freaking Super Bowl, has been to the playoffs with the Rams.

Larry Ogan Jobi has been to the playoffs with the Steelers.

Like even some of their new additions have playoff experience.

Joey Bosa has been to the playoffs.

It's yeah, don't underestimate how difficult it is to win, even when you're winning easy finger quotes easy.

It's it's a challenge and that no, you give me the easy schedule.

Rack up your wins.

Gets to get the one seed and then and then hit the playoffs at a sprint.

We transition to the number members game now where Steve will be quizzed on NFC South opponent history for the Bills.

Question number one, Steve Arino, what was the biggest blowout victory by the Bills over an NFC South opponent after the NFC South was formed in two thousand and two.

I'd say New Orleans.

It was what was it last thirty eight three or something like?

What what I say, New Orleans?

It is New Orleans.

Do you want to guess how much the Bills won by?

I think they won by.

I don't think it was third twenty five something like that.

It is exactly twenty five points, mister tasker.

It was a thirty one to six victory on Thanksgiving in twenty twenty one.

I was in the Superdome.

I was going back over the notes early in the week that rank.

I didn't read any of the other notes, but I knew that was there.

So okay, way to do your homework.

Question number two you had to guess what is Sean McDermott's overall one loss record against NFC South opponents as head coach of the Bills.

Okay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans.

How many games is it?

It's nine total games.

So give me a one loss record that you think Sean McDermott has against the NFC South as head coach of the Bills.

Okay, he remember, I remember the overtime loss to Tampa Bay.

That's twenty twenty one.

Atlanta.

I don't think Carolina.

I'll say seven and two.

You're very close, sixs and three, six and three a half.

He is six and three against the NFC South, two and two in twenty seventeen, three and one in twenty twenty one.

Tampa loss right and one to zero in twenty twenty two when they had the NFC crossover game against Tampa here Sunday Night Football and won twenty four to eighteen.

No recollection of that game.

That was the game.

That was the home game right before the Denver home loss, which is the last loss I believe the Bills have.

Oh no, that was twenty twenty three.

Never mind question three.

What was the biggest blowout loss the Bills were given by an NFC South opponent after the division was formed in two thousand and two.

I think I got this.

I think I was sitting in the stands here as a fan one of the few times I had win Sean Payton and the Saints beat him forty to eleven or something like that, forty seven to ten, And you are correct, I thirty seven point defeat.

I was sick.

Twenty seventeen, the Saints ran for two hundred and ninety eight yards.

On the ground, Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Camara, the whole gang.

They I remember thinking, man, they kind of piled on.

I was a did I was kind.

Of which is why Sean McDermott did not take his foot off the gas in the playoffs last year against Denver when they won thirty one to seven over Sean Payton's Broncos.

Chance to go three for four here, Steve.

Question number four.

Were the Bills ever swept by the NFC South in a single season since that division was formed in two thousand and two?

Have they ever gone over against the NFC.

South during the Trout years too?

Oh my god, Well, we're going back to two thousand and two, twenty three years approximately.

Of now.

You only play them once every four years, played the division once every four years, so you're probably looking at four swings at it.

I'll say, I'm gonna say no, I don't think they ever got swept.

The answer is yes, Ah, it happened in two thousand and five.

They lost nineteen to three at Tampa.

That was the JP Lossman Benching game when he stepped out of bounds in the back of the end zone for his safety.

Do you remember that one and Kelly Holcombe came into religion.

Those were the days they lost twenty four to sixteen to Atlanta that year.

Here, No, I was in Atlanta.

Yes, And I don't know if I have this pop, I might have this wrong, but I want to say Brian started that game.

Okay, lost nineteen to seven at New Orleans and lost thirteen to nine at home to Carolina.

Sean McDermott on that thirteen to nine, Steve Wow, thirteen to nine.

Do you know how awful that score sounds?

And I can promise you the game was just as bad.

I have no doubt.

So that is the numbers game.

Let's forget about two thousand and five as quickly as we possibly can.

So Bill's fans, we got to tell you.

Get in on the action with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.

Just download the app today to play any way you want.

Plus, with live betting, you'll get updated odds on games that have already started.

Best of all, you get paid your winnings fast.

Make every moment more with FanDuel Official Sportsbook, partner of the Buffalo Bills.

Time now for our one burning question, and the Bills have the number one rushing offense in the NFL at one hundred and sixty three yards per game.

Steve, do you believe they will be the number one rushing offense by the end of the regular season.

I'm gonna say no, But that doesn't mean it's not good to be number two or number three.

I mean, they're gonna be right up there, but I'm gonna say probably not number one.

It's hard to be that because saying it's hard to do it, yeah.

I mean, I'm not saying they won't they're gonna stop running the football or anything like that.

I'm just saying that that's not that's not a goal, and they're gonna have to.

They're going to adjust to the adjustments the defenses are making.

They're gonna make to them, right.

I think the problem is, and the reason it may happen that they get to number one, is because teams are just saying, listen, we're not gonna lett the MVP beat us.

If you want to hand it off and let James Cook and Ray Davis and Ty Johnson beat us, we'll do that.

But we're not letting we're taking the ball out of Josh's hand.

That may happen, and teams might continue to invite them to run the football with light boxes and that kind of thing.

That's a slow death to die, but it is because it also dies slowly.

Then well it'll change because that's just it.

They're gonna be continued to be efficient.

You can do that and all of a sudden, you're still giving up a touchdown every drive or touchdown, then a field goal, then another touchdown, another touchdown, then a field goal.

You've got to stop them at some point.

So and we saw that from the Dolphins.

That's right week three, because the Dolphins became so desperate to stop Buffalo's rushing attack that they put three defensive tackles on the field and then later put four defense I've never seen that before.

Four defensive tackles on the front, two edge rushers, so it was like a sixty front with two linebackers behind them.

I'll say this as well.

I was watching some tape today The Saints did the exact same thing.

They put a six man front across the Seahawks front to try and get make sure they had to throw the ball and take that.

So defenses are going to adjust.

Now, if you've got an answer for that, maybe your answers three tight ends and say let's go.

You're six guys against our eight guys, let's go.

The Bills may be hesitant to just jump out of that.

Right because, as we've noted on our daily show on one, Bills live through three games.

When the Bills are in twelve or thirteen personnel this season, they're even better.

They're averaging seven point two yards per carry, that leads the NFL.

So this is why you listen to Bills.

By then that's right.

For sets like.

That, the Bills may just say, keep throwing, keep throwing six man fronts up at us, putting eight in the box, and we're gonna run it anyway.

And then what are you gonna do?

Because then you have to play single high coverage and it's a power guys that can burn.

So that's how.

Good the Bills offense is right now.

Up front, you know, they scored forty one on a really good Raven defense.

They scored thirty one against what we think is a pretty good Jet defense.

And then of course his last week, they same thing as the Dolphins.

Thirty against the Jets, thirty one against the Dolphins, forty one against I mean, it's hard to keep them off the board.

And here's the thing.

If if you're gonna let them run the ball or invite them to run the ball, you're only gonna get Instead of getting eleven possessions during the game to tie it up, you're looking at eight or nine.

There was a think about the Bills had, like there was a game that they had like two or three possessions in Week one against the Baltimore Ravens.

They're like three possessions in that first half.

That's what happens.

And if you got to score four times in the you know, in the second half to keep up with them, and you're gonna get three possessions, that's a bad math problem.

So that's what you're looking at.

The game shortens at the back end.

If you're inviting the Bills to run, that's fine, but you got to stop them and get them to punt.

Especially if they've won the coin toss and deferred, then you really have a problem in the second half.

Yea.

So all of that goes into the stew So teams get desperate to stop and they start sending run blitzes and stuff and just started saying listen, and then you that's when the big plays.

Come back, and then you know, you start throwing it down the field.

It's a problem.

It is a problem because they do answer.

They do both of those things on both ends of the spectrum very well.

They can pack it inside with three tight ends on a big offensive line that's very cohesive, a back and a full back and a good running back and a big quarterback who can tuck it under his arm and they can run right at you.

Or they can spread it out, empty it out with James Cook and split and Josh Allen standing back there who can still tuck it under his arm.

Both ends of the spectrum.

Personnel wise, the Bill can win, and win big.

It's a problem.

It's a big problem.

Our closing figure deals with Bill's middle linebacker Terrell Bernard, mister fourth quarter.

Since twenty twenty three, when he entered the starting lineup, Bernard has eleven total takeaways in the regular season, tied for fourth most in the NFL and the most among linebackers during that span, and if you add in his two career takeaways in the playoffs, seven of his thirteen career takeaways have come in the fourth quarter.

That's it for this edition.

Be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use, or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel, because when you need to know about the bills, you need to check Bills by the Numbers.

For Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown.

Thanks for listening.

Well, catch you next time.

Everybody,