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Major League Baseball Offseason News and Rumors

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to the deep dive.

This is where we cut through all the noise, all the information out there and give you the clearest, most compelling analysis we can.

Speaker 2

And right now, the baseball world is just spinning.

I mean it's an absolute whirlwind, it really is.

Speaker 1

The World Series just ended and we're already what knee deep in the off season build for twenty twenty six.

The hot stove is it's blazing.

Speaker 2

It's the most high stakes time of the year for these front offices.

The GM meetings are done, all the major awards have been handed out right, and now the biggest free agents are already kicking up these huge, potentially league altering rumors.

Speaker 1

So our mission today is pretty straightforward.

We're going to unpack the biggest news, celebrate the award winners from the twenty twenty five season, and.

Speaker 2

More importantly, I think dig into the really compelling free agency and trade rumors that are shaping the entire competitive landscape exactly.

Speaker 1

We're giving you a shortcut to being instantly up to speed on who's spending, who's selling, and you.

Speaker 2

Know why, let's start with the hardware them.

Speaker 1

Yeah, let's do it.

The twenty twenty five season gave us a ton of drama and the awards are all official now.

It was a year that really showcased, I think both generational talent and the next wave of superstars.

Speaker 2

Oh absolutely, And you have to start with the MVPs, where we just saw some massive historical significance play out.

In the American League.

You've got Aaron Judge of the Yankees.

He took home his third career AL MVP of your third.

Speaker 1

But what's so fascinating about that one is how close the vote.

Speaker 2

Was, right, incredibly tight.

He just, i mean just edged out the catcher cow Raley.

Speaker 1

That close margin really speaks to the quality of the competition.

Yeah, Raleigh had an unbelievable year behind the plate, but Judge just feels like this perpetual force he is, His presence just elevates that entire lineup.

So what was the defining factor that pushed Judge over the top for number three?

Even with Raley bringing that premium defense.

Speaker 2

I think it really came down to the sheer offensive volume that Judge provides.

You can't ignore it.

And you know that's compounded by his established brand, his perceived value to the team.

Sure, while Roley had a magnificent season, providing that elite catcher defense and some surprising power.

Judge's overall offensive numbers were just they were too immense to ignore.

Speaker 1

The plate discipline, the single swing.

Speaker 2

Impact exactly, and his leadership in that Yankees lineup.

Three MVP trophies, I mean that solidifies him as one of the defining figures of this whole generation.

Speaker 1

And speaking of defining figures over in the National League, the outcome was maybe a little less suspenseful, just significant historically.

Speaker 2

That's Shoheo Tani of the Dodgers.

He took home the NL MVP and that is his fourth career MVP four.

Speaker 1

You just have to pause and let that sink in.

Speaker 2

You really do four MVPs and he's still in his late twenties.

This achievement puts him in the rarest of air.

We're talking about names like Barry Bonds, maybe even tying Mike Trout depending on how you count them.

Speaker 1

And the consistency of that elite production, even though he was mostly the age and twenty twenty five because of his recovery, it just continues to redefine which you can expect from a modern player.

Completely incredible.

Okay, So moving to pitching excellence.

The cy Young Races gave us a glimpse into the future, I think, especially in the National League.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, on the n L side, the young phenom Paul Skeins of the Pirates was the undisputed winner.

Speaker 1

And this is a massive development for Pittsburgh.

It gives them an identity for the next decade with a true elite arm.

Speaker 2

He dominated from start to finish, fulfilled all that massive hype that followed him since his debut.

Meanwhile, in the America League, the award went to Trek Scuball of the Tigers.

Speaker 1

Both are just foundational pieces that their franchises are going to try and build their entire twenty twenty six rotations.

Speaker 2

Around precisely, and those wins, they're huge, not just for the players, but for the organization's ability to recruit talent and build confidence.

It gives a smaller market team like Pittsburgh a tangible start appoint to totally.

Speaker 1

And let's not forget the new blood and the man who drove those successful seasons.

I mean, the Rookie of the Year awards always have that extra layer of intrigue because of what it means for service time.

Speaker 2

So who are the top rookies.

Speaker 1

Nick Kurtz took the AL Rookie of the Year award, and this is so important because winning guarantees his club a full year of service time, right.

Speaker 2

So he accrues value immediately and you avoid any of that service time manipulation talk.

Speaker 1

Exactly and over in the n L Drake Baldwin of the Braves one Rookie of the Year.

And this is where we need to get into the weeds a little bit.

Okay, this victory is a major structural win for Atlanta, not just for Boldwin, but because it secures them a prospect promotion incentive pick a PPI pick.

Speaker 2

Okay, let's unpack that for listeners who might have heard the term but don't know the specifics.

What exactly is the benefit for the Braves.

Why does this rule even exist?

Speaker 1

Well, it's an mechanism from the latest collective bargaining agreement and it's meant to incentivize teams to call up their top prospects.

Speaker 2

Earlier instead of waiting a few weeks to get that extra year of tea control.

Speaker 1

Exactly.

The rule basically says, if a player on the MLB Top one hundred prospect list gets promoted early and then goes on to win Rookie of the Year or even finishes high in the MVP voting before arbitration.

The team gets an extra first round.

Speaker 2

Draft pick, so it's a reward, a reward for prioritizing winning now over those service time games.

Speaker 1

One for the Braves getting that PPI pick, which is usually a competitive balance pick right outside the first round, and it carries huge trade value and cost control.

It's invaluable.

Speaker 2

It's a bonus piece of premium young talent, completely free, just because they brought bald one up any balled out.

Speaker 1

It makes the Rookie of the Year honor so much sweeter than just the individual recognition.

Speaker 2

No doubt, that's a huge strategic win for Atlanta.

Speaker 1

And finally, we have to give a nod to the guys in the dugout who steered these teams.

Speaker 2

Pat Murphy and Stephen Vote earned the Manager of the Year awards.

Both had just outstanding seasons leading their clubs, navigating the the complexities of a one hundred and sixty two game schedule.

Speaker 1

And managing those modern pitching staff workloads, keeping the clubhouse chemistry positive.

Speaker 2

It's a tough job, it really is, and their wins show that both veteran leadership and new managerial blood can get it done.

Speaker 1

Okay, so with the hardware, I'll hand it out.

Let's pivot.

Let's talk about the postseason.

Speaker 2

Fallout, the immediate fallout.

Speaker 1

Yeah exactly.

I mean, you have this incredibly emotional end to the World Series, right, the Dodgers win it all and the.

Speaker 2

Blue Jays are just one hit short.

Speaker 1

Yeah, agonizing, just agonizing, and you can already see that driving everything they're doing.

Both clubs are being super aggressive right out of the gate.

That memory of Game seven is fueling every decision.

Speaker 2

The contrast and how they're approaching it is fascinating.

You've got the Dodgers managing success and some turnover, while the Blue Jays are just spending, fueled by that sheer competitive agony.

Speaker 1

Let's start with the chance.

Let's appreciate what the Dodgers did and focus on the immediate roster consequences of their title.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, and when you look at that Dodgers roster right after the championship, there's one guy who stands out as the ultimate unlikely hero, veteran infielder Miguel Rojas.

Speaker 1

His story is one that I think GM should be studying very closely this offseason.

Speaker 2

The story of Rojas is massive, and it's really relevant to a discussion we'll have later about the value of utility players versus stars.

He's a free agent and his contribution to that championship was just it was profound.

Speaker 1

Forget the regular season stats for a minute, just focus on the clutch factor and the.

Speaker 2

Clutch moment being that game tying home run in the ninth inning of Game seven.

Speaker 1

I mean, that's a scene that will live on Dodgers' highlight reels forever.

Speaker 2

Forever, that moment, when the Dodgers were dead in the water, they were facing defeat.

It completely changed everything.

That bomb paved the way for Will Smith to knock in the winning run in the eleventh and.

Speaker 1

It was Rojas, a veteran utility man, a guy known for his glove, delivers the biggest hit of the year for the franchise.

Speaker 2

That one justifies his entire spot on the roster and totally ships the conversation about his value going forward.

You just can't put a price tag on that kind of reliability under pressure.

Speaker 1

And the good news for the fans in La is that Rojas is reportedly eager to come back for one more season.

He's the definition of a high floor veteran who just clearly loves the environment he is.

Speaker 2

He's been described as a huge clubhouse presence, a reliable glove at multiple positions.

Given his desire to return and his October heroics, re signing him seems like a logical, low risk priority for the club, especially with the turnover they're facing.

Speaker 1

Right because even championship teams face immedia losses, the turn of free agencies just constant.

Speaker 2

That's the cold reality of the business.

The Dodgers have already seen key playoff contributors leave in free agency.

Justin Dean, a valuable bench piece he left for the rival Giants.

Speaker 1

And Ben Roadvett, their depth catcher, signed with the Reds.

Speaker 2

On top of that, the team announced that veteran utility man key k Hernandez had elbow surgery this offseason.

Speaker 1

So that surgery for Hernandez, plus Dean and Roardvett leaving that immediately degrades their utility depth.

It just underscores why they need Rojas back and why depth is so so crucial in October.

You can't win a World Series with just nine guys.

Speaker 2

It does and while The Dodgers have a massive war chest.

I mean, eighty seven million dollars is coming off their books the saf season.

Speaker 1

Eighty seven million.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so they're ready to pivot to bigger market moves for a closer or another bat.

But retaining that internal championship depth is vital.

If you can't just go out and buy Rojas Game seven heroics on the free agent market, you have to cultivate it.

Speaker 1

Now.

Contrast that with the Blue Jays.

Their agonizing World Series loss being one hit away seems to have positioned them as I don't know, maybe one of the most active teams in all of free agency this winter.

Speaker 2

Oh for sure.

They are operating with the urgency of a team that knows their window is wide open and they just need that final piece.

Speaker 1

That loss was brutal to watch, but it shows exactly why they're going to spend big.

They're not rebuilding, they're fine tuning in your champion.

Speaker 2

And what's really fascinating about Toronto season is the mix they had.

They weren't just built on stars like Vladdie Junior and George Springer.

We have to talk about the remarkable story of Ernie.

Speaker 1

Clement Ah, the scrappy player who became an icon, the definition of a diamond in the rough.

Speaker 2

This is the narrative perfected and it ties right back to Rojas.

Clement was a versatile defender who was literally picked up off the scrap heap.

Released by the Athletics in twenty twenty three, few people saw him as a difference.

Speaker 1

Maker, and then fast forward two years and he's a World Series hero.

Speaker 2

For Toronto, hitting an astonishing point four to one one in the postseason.

He went twelve for thirty one in the World Series itself.

This highlights something critical.

Their front office found championship level value and a player that costs them basically nothing.

Speaker 1

That's phenomenal.

It's hard to imagine a higher retun on investment than a utility guy batting over point four hundred in the World Series.

It just proves that depth isn't just about avoiding injury, it's about reliable, high pressure performance.

Speaker 2

It proves that building a deep roster with these high floor, high versatility guys can compete with any concentration of high priced talent.

That successful mix is clearly fueling Toronto's confidence heading into this offseason.

Speaker 1

Speaking of their core, the emergence of their young pitching is even more exciting because it's cost controlled.

Speaker 2

The future of their rotation got a massive, maybe even unexpected boost from Treya Savage.

The twenty two year old righty had an incredible year, dominating in the minors before a huge showing in the majors, and then in October.

Speaker 1

He's set a rookie pitching record with twelve strikeouts in zero walks in a World Series game.

Speaker 2

To have that kind of command and composure on the biggest stage at twenty two is almost unheard of.

It provides an immediate elite presence.

Speaker 1

And that kind of breakout performance secures his future regardless of who they signed this winter.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, he's firmly penciled into the twenty twenty six rotation alongside guys like Gosman and Bieber, and critically, he'll only earn about eight hundred and twenty thousand dollars next season.

Wow, that's elite, high value innings.

He's ranked as the sixth best prospect in MLB for twenty twenty six, the second highest pitcher.

He's a phenomenal, high ceiling, cost controlled asset for the next six years.

That frees up a lot of money to pursue a position player like Tucker.

Speaker 1

Now, let's talk about a veteran presence the blue Jays had last year, Max Scherzer.

His tenure ended in Game seven, and he's a free agent now at forty one.

He pitched well in that final game, But what does his market look like given his age, in injury history.

Speaker 2

Given his age, the workload, and recent injuries, which is always a factor for a pitcher in his forties.

The consensus prediction is a short deal, something like a one year, fifteen million dollar contract, and.

Speaker 1

While the Blue Jays might still be interested for a year, the strongest prediction seems to be a return to Detroit.

Speaker 2

Exactly, a return to where he made his name, the Detroit Tigers.

It would likely be as a fifth starter or reliever, helping them fill in need, with a veteran presence and some mentorship, a.

Speaker 1

Lower leverage opportunity, maybe allowing him to finish his career near home while still contributing.

Speaker 2

That's the idea, and fifteen million dollars is substantial, but it's short enough that teams aren't terrified of a multi year decline.

Speaker 1

This is where it gets really interesting.

Speaking of the high cost of power, that brings us to the most intriguing opt out in the NL.

Speaker 2

I think what's fascinating here is how the biggest contract questions this offseason are all about the power hitters, and the outcome depends less on their production, which is elite, and more on the years they're asking for.

Speaker 1

It's all about risk management versus guaranteed output, especially past the age of thirty three.

Speaker 2

And the most dramatic test case of that tension is Pete Alonzo with the New York Mets.

Alonso, the Mets all time home run leader, just opted out of his contract, even though the team missed the playoffs last year.

Speaker 1

Opting out of guaranteed money takes immense confidence in your market value, especially for a first basement you're paying purely for the bat.

Speaker 2

Well, he had massive leverage.

He's coming off a career defining platform year in twenty twenty five.

He slash an outstanding point two seven to two point three four seven point five twenty four for one point eight seven to one ops.

Speaker 1

Thirty eight homers, forty one doubles, one hundred and twenty six RBIs.

Speaker 2

And this is the critical part.

He played all one hundred and sixty two games.

For the second straight season.

That durability is like a bulletproof warranty on his production.

It puts his agent, Scott Boras, in a great position to get that long term pay day.

Speaker 1

So the Mets have won Sodo the perfect setup.

Alonzo seems like the natural fit to protect Sodo in that lineup, So why the hesitation.

Isn't the risk of a declining final year worth the guaranteed four years of elite production.

Speaker 2

The club absolutely wants him back.

The offense is undeniable, but the key conflict is that Mets management is prioritizing positional value and defense under their new directives, and Alonso, as a first baseman, is viewed internally as a negative defender, especially as he ages.

Speaker 1

So they're afraid of committing what six years to a declining defensive player who might end up is just a dh which limits your roster flexibility.

Speaker 2

Precisely, the reporting suggests that if Alonzo seeks more than four guaranteed years, the Mets may seriously consider moving on.

They just don't want the risk of an aging first baseman whose defense and base running will likely decline over a five or six year deal worth maybe one hundred and eighty million dollars, So they're asking.

Speaker 1

How much offensive certainty is worth that positional and flexibility and defensive downgrade in the later.

Speaker 2

Years exactly, And that opens the door wide open for competitors.

Speaker 1

Right, So, who's lining up to steal the polar bear if the Mets hesitate?

Speaker 2

This is why the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Phillies, and the Orioles are all listed as interested.

If the Mets draw a line in the sand at four years, one of those rivals will happily swoop in and offer the fifth.

Speaker 1

The thought of Alonzo moving across town to the Yankees is just a terrifying possibility for Mets fans.

It'd be a tectonic shift.

Speaker 2

A huge shift.

Okay, moving to another highly sought after outfielder, Kyle Tucker.

Toronto's ambition seems to be reaching for the stars here heavily linked to the four time All Star.

Speaker 1

This absolutely fits their aggressive aim high strategy.

After getting so close, they need another reliable, elite bat to complement their core, and Tucker is a perfect fit.

Speaker 2

He won his second Silver Slugger Award last year, posted a really strong four point six war.

His stats cooled off a bit in the second half, but he finished hitting point two six six with twenty two homers and seventy three RBIs great overall value and defense.

Speaker 1

If Toronto lands Tucker, that would instantly make them favorites in the Al East.

But why wouldn't the big New York teams jump in for a player of this caliber?

If they're looking at Alonzo, why not Tucker too?

Speaker 2

This is the insider perspective that makes the most sense.

The reporting suggests the mess and Yankees are unlikely to bid aggressively for Tucker.

The reasoning is all about roster fit and financial allocation.

Both teams already have their franchise outfielders locked up long term Soto with the Mets, Judge with the Yankees.

Adding Tucker creates a positional logjam and forces a high value player into a DH roll, which just isn't a fit spending.

Speaker 1

So, because the Yankees need a first baseman and the Mets want to protect Soda with Alonzo, the path is clearer for teams like the Blue Jays.

Speaker 2

Correct for the Yankees, their focus is first base or pitching.

They aren't going to displace Judge, so the primary bidders beyond Toronto are expected to be the Dodgers, the Giants, and the Phillies, teams with bigger needs in the outfield.

Speaker 1

The third base market is also generating headlines, specifically with Alex Bregman, who just made a huge financial decision in Boston.

Speaker 2

Or Regman officially opted out of the final two years and eighty million dollars of his contract with the Red Sox.

And you have to understand that eighty million included a lot of deferred money.

Speaker 1

So what does opting out of deferred money signal about his confidence?

Speaker 2

It signals absolute confidence.

Deferred money means a portion of that salary gets paid out years after the contract ends.

By opting out, Reregman is sacrificing that guaranteed long term payout stream right now.

Speaker 1

He's betting that the immediate value of a new massive contract will outweigh the security of those deferred payments.

Speaker 2

He's chasing the total guarantee and he's projected to get it around one hundred and fifty million dollars over six years.

But what's maybe most compelling about his situation is the very public plea he got from a Red Sox legend to return.

Speaker 1

David Ortiz, Big Pappy urging Bregman to stay home.

Speaker 2

Yes, Ortiz publicly urged him to return, highlighting his incredible leadership and team player mentality.

Ortiz even mentioned watching Bregman in spring training helping out younger guys like Rafael Devers, saying it showed tremendous selflessness.

Speaker 1

For Boston, bringing him back would be a massive boost, not just for his production, but for that intangible value in the clubhouse as they look to capitalize on their recent wildcard success.

Speaker 2

So what does this all mean for the other side of the ball.

We're seeing a global arms race for pitching, covering everything from the back end of the bullpen to elite starters.

Speaker 1

Pitching is the scarce resource, and teams like the Blue Jays and Dodgers are hunting high leverage arms to solidify their championship hopes.

Speaker 2

And nowhere is that aggression clearer than in the closer market.

Two big names opted out of their deals, starting with Edwin Diaz, and they are looking for historically large contracts.

Speaker 1

Dias opting out of his record deal instantly made him the biggest prize on the relief market.

What's the contract risk here?

Relievers are notoriously volatile.

Speaker 2

The risk is immense because relievers are so volatile.

Yet Diaz is rumored to be seeking a massive, five year, one hundred million dollar.

Speaker 1

Contract one hundred million for a closer.

Speaker 2

If he gets that, it would completely reset the market for all future closers.

The risk, though, is dedicating twenty million a year for half a decade to a guy who throws sixty innings.

It's dangerous, especially if he has one injury or a drop in velocity in year four or five.

Speaker 1

But the demand is there, especially from Toronto, who desperately wants to lock down those final three outs.

Speaker 2

Oh absolutely.

The blue Jays, driven by that postseason failure, are reportedly ready to make a significant offer to get him.

They saw their bullpen falter at key moments and they want guaranteed late inning dominance.

Speaker 1

And the Dodgers are also interested.

Speaker 2

Yep, the newly crowned champs.

They're helped by the fact they have that eighty seven million dollars coming off the books, which lets them pursue a top tier closer without major budget issues.

Speaker 1

But if the top guy is too pricey, the Blue Jays and Dodgers seem to have a fallback plan, which centers on veteran Raizel Iglesias.

Speaker 2

Iglesias is drawing interest from both those clubs, making him the prime consolation prize if Diez gets his one hundred million dollar deal.

He's thirty six, coming off a three point twenty one ERA season for the Braves.

Speaker 1

And it's important to look at the splits in his performance right.

Speaker 2

Definitely, he was really inconsistent early in the season, had in your six point zero zero ERA into June because of some home run issues, but then he was lights out, posting estellar one point nine to six RA over the final four months.

Speaker 1

So teams are betting on that second half form, hoping the early struggles were an anomaly exactly.

Speaker 2

And for Toronto specifically, he's a valuable target because it's a strategy play.

Signing Aglazias would let them use their current closer, Jeff Hoffman, who struggled with homers last year in an earlier multi inning leverage role.

Speaker 1

It's a classic move at a high leverage arm and optimize an existing reliever spot.

You solved multiple bullpen problems at once.

Speaker 2

Right, and Iglesias is projected to get a more manageable two year deal, maybe around thirteen million dollars annually, which is far less restrictive than the commitment for Diaz.

Speaker 1

Beyond domestic free agents, the pitching arms race is stretching across the globe with the posting of Japanese star at Tatsuya Imai.

Speaker 2

Emai is the Japanese phenom right hander, and he's set to be posted.

He's a coveted asset because he doesn't carry that qualified free agent draft pick penalty.

Most scouts see him as a high floor mid rotation arm with upside.

Speaker 1

And his results in twenty twenty five were certainly impressive superb.

Speaker 2

He posted a one point nine to two ERA over twenty four starts, with one hundred and seventy eight strikeouts in about one hundred and sixty four innings.

Speaker 1

That level of production guarantees heavy interest.

Who's leading the charge?

Speaker 2

The suitor race is hot.

The Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mets are all listed as leading candidates.

For the Mets EMA and I is particularly attractive because, like we said, he's a high floor signing without the immediate costly penalty of losing draft picks.

Speaker 1

Speaking of rotation needs, the Cubs are in the market after some unexpected turnover.

Speaker 2

Yeah, the Cubs need pitching after shoota Imanaga declined his options, which really surprised the organization and left a massive hole.

Their aggressive trade target is Dylan Cease.

Speaker 1

Which makes sense because of his durability.

Speaker 2

Remarkable durability.

He's logged thirty two starts and one hundred and sixty five plus innings over the last five years, and he led MLB in strikeout percentage over the last four That checks two huge boxes guaranteed innings and strikeout prowess.

Speaker 1

But durability doesn't erase the performance concerns entirely.

Cease has had some pretty significant consistency issues.

Speaker 2

Right He logged one hundred and sixty innings for the Padres last year, but finished with a high four point five to five ERA.

The main concerns are his high walk rate and just general inconsistency, but analysts feel his exceptional strikeout rate.

The fact that he can miss bats at an elite level gives teams confidence they can fix him.

Speaker 1

They think they can turn him into a true frontline guy by simplifying his mechanics or focusing his pitch mix.

Speaker 2

Basically, yeah, he's seen as a reclamation project with a huge ceiling.

Speaker 1

Turning back to the mess, their search for an ace is complicated by the trade market drying up and the prohibitive cost of qualified free agents.

Speaker 2

They're expected to land at least one high end starter, but they've hit a brick wall on the trade front.

Top options that were rumored to be available are now reportedly off the block for twenty twenty six Kabu, Sandy Alkintara, Paul Skens, Turks, Google, and Hunter Green.

The Marlins owner in particular, has told staff he plans to have Alcantar on the roster to start twenty twenty six, so that shuts those rumors down immediately.

Speaker 1

So if the trade market is a desert, that forces the Mets to look exclusively at free agency for top arms, and that means navigating the qualified free agent.

Speaker 2

System, and this is a major financial and structural hurdle that dictates their whole off season strategy.

They have to weigh the cost of signing qualified free agents like Framber Valdez or maybe even Cease, against the stiff penalty of losing draft picks.

Speaker 1

For a team like the Mets, signing a QFA means losing their second and fifth highest draft picks.

Plus a million dollar reduction from their international signing bonus pool.

Speaker 2

Wait, why is losing those picks and that international pool money so painful for a big market team like the Mets.

They have endless financial resources.

Speaker 1

They have money, but they want young, controllable talent to sustain their success.

That second highest pick is often a crucial spot for high ceiling college talent that can move quickly, and that million dollar reduction in the international pool is critical.

Speaker 2

That's where you find the next generation.

Speaker 1

Of stars exactly.

Losing a chunk of that budget makes it incredibly hard to compete with other big market teams who are aggressively scouting Latin America in Asia.

It delays your ability to replenish the system for years.

That cost makes gms extremely hesitant, even for an ACE.

Speaker 2

We've covered the behemoths of the EA West.

Now let's look at the teams in the hunt, starting with the Mariners, who are prioritizing keeping their own guys over external spending, which is a big strategic move.

After reaching the Alcs.

Speaker 1

General manager Justin Hollander was very clear after reaching Game seven of the Alcs, the Mariners want to retain as much of their twenty twenty five cores as they can.

He explicitly named first baseman Josh Naylor and infielder Jorge Polanco as priorities.

Speaker 2

Naylor in particular seems like a necessary fit to stabilize that first base position for them long term.

Speaker 1

He is.

Hollander said they are open about their desire to keep Naylor, describing him as one of the smartest players in the league, bringing power and a low strikeout rate, fitting a position of need that has been volatile for Seattle.

Speaker 2

The common belief is that both Naylor and Polanco are the most likely internal free agents to resign.

They just provide instant, high flour production that would be incredibly expensive to replace on the open market.

Speaker 1

And what's their biggest focus outside of resigning those core players bullpen help.

Speaker 2

Hollander emphasized that adding a left handed reliever is a major focus for them, especially since Gabe Spier is currently they're only lefty projected in the bullpen.

Speaker 1

After a deep playoff run, you want to ensure the relief corps is deeper and longer to account for all that extra work.

Speaker 2

Definitely, we have to talk about the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished second in the Nlsands Young Race, but saw their ace get a massive snub during the All MLB voting.

This raises serious questions about how we define best.

Speaker 1

This is one of the most staggering talking points from the entire award season.

Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez was completely disregarded by the All MLB First Team voters.

Despite the snub, he finished second in the actual NLC on Young of voting and registered an incredible eight point oh b ware.

Speaker 2

Wait eight point oh b war and he missed the first team.

For listeners who aren't constantly immersed in advanced metrics, you have to explain what eight point oh b war means for a pitcher and why that number is truly historic.

Speaker 1

So bw or is baseball reference wins above replacement.

It quantifies a play total value compared to a replacement level player.

For pitcher, an excellent season might be five point oh war.

A cy young contending season is usually six point five or higher.

Speaker 2

And eight point zero b war r is it's.

Speaker 1

An absolutely historic generational number.

It means Sanchez was eight full wins better than a replacement pitcher.

It was the highest b war among all pitchers in baseball and second Eyest overall behind only MVP.

Speaker 2

Aaron judge that statistic is staggering.

How structurally broken is the voting system that Max Freed, with demonstrably worse metrics, could leapfrog him.

Speaker 1

It suggests some voters prioritize name recognition or team success over purely dominant performance metrics.

Sanchez was named only to the All MLB second team, yet he beat Freed in nearly every measurable category better eer, more innings pitched, more strikeouts, fewer walks.

The discrepancy is shocking.

Speaker 2

Amid this snub, the Phillies face major free agency questions with two key veterans, Kyle Schwarber and JT.

Realmudo.

Schwarber was the MVP runner up.

He seems like the obvious priority given his power.

Speaker 1

This is where the internal debate gets interesting.

Schwarber was indeed the NL MVP runner up, leading the NL with fifty six home runs.

However, an insider argument suggests the Phillies must prioritize re signing veteran catcher JT.

Real Mudo, even over Swarber's historic power.

Speaker 2

But Schwarber delivers historic power.

Can a team really afford to let that kind of production walk just because they can't find another catcher.

Speaker 1

The argument comes down to market leverage and defensive value.

The catching market this offseason is extremely weak.

Real Mudo, despite an offensive decline, remains a two time Gold Glove winner and expertly guides that talented pitching staff.

Speaker 2

The reality is you can probably find forty home runs on the free agent market, but you cannot easily replace an elite defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff and has his unique athleticism and experience.

Speaker 1

They argue he's far and away the best catcher available and they have no replacement ready behind the.

Speaker 2

Plate, shifting gears to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The narrative around the organization has long been, as Pat mcafew recently said, and historical unwillingness to spend money, which frustrates fans who see talent wasted.

Speaker 1

The perception of the Pirates being one of baseball's most profitable teams while historically refusing to invest in their roster has been a massive source of fan frustration.

They have star talent like Cy Young winner Paul Skins, but never build around it.

Speaker 2

So is the Cy Young win finally forcing a change in philosophy.

Speaker 1

Rumor suggests Yes.

Sources indicate the organization is expected to add at least thirty million dollars to their payroll for twenty twenty six to build a competitive team around Paul Skins.

Speaker 2

While thirty million might seem small in the context of the Dodgers or Yankees, for the Pirates, this marks a significant departure from their typical spending habits.

It indicates a genuine attempt to contend while Skins is under team control.

Speaker 1

The Twins, meanwhile, are focused on internal management.

With the Rule five draft deadline on November eighteenth, they have some tough protection decisions to make for their forty man roster.

Speaker 2

They cleared space on their forty man roster early, leaving seven open spots.

Teams have to protect any player eligible for the Rule five draft or risk losing them for a minimal cost.

The Twins have four absolute givens to add before the deadline.

Speaker 1

Non negotiable protections.

So who are those four key prospects they can't risk losing.

Speaker 2

They include left handed pitchers Connor Prelip and Kendri Rojas, right hander Andrew Morris, and outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez.

Prelip is especially high ceiling.

Finally, staying healthy for over eighty innings between double A and triple A.

Speaker 1

Tell me more about Gabriel Gonzalez.

I know he's a key piece from recent trade.

Speaker 2

He is the last remaining piece of the Jege Polanco trade with Seattle, so losing him would be a disaster for that trade's return.

Gonzalez had a major rebound year, posting a point nine zero nine ops and twenty twenty five with fifteen home runs.

He's a high ceiling prospect they cannot afford to lose.

Speaker 1

So protecting these four means their forty man roster will be nearly full, limiting their free agency flexibility a bit, but correctly prioritizing their own organizational palate exactly.

Speaker 2

Finally, we have some structural news around the league and a few noteworthy personnel and disciplinary items.

Speaker 1

On the organizational side, the Seidler family is exploring a potential sale of the Padres.

This is significant given the volatile spending and management over the last few years in San Diego.

New ownership could mean a total philosophy shift.

Speaker 2

Meanwhile, the Orioles, after a successful twenty twenty five, have made a key coaching hire, bringing in former Nationals interim manager Miguel Cairo as their infield coach.

Speaker 1

We also have news about a veteran pitcher who plans to return next season, potentially offering some depth.

Speaker 2

Yes, veteran swingman Erasmo Ramirez, who is thirty four, plans to pitch in twenty twenty six and is currently training as a starter.

He offers valuable flexibility.

He's likely best suited for a swingman role, which could appeal to teams needing reliable multi inning depth without committing major payroll.

Speaker 1

And lastly, a serious piece of lead disciplinary news concerning two prominent.

Speaker 2

Relievers, Emmanuel Klus and Luis Ortiz, have both been indicted on ambling charges.

This adds a serious note to the offseason, reminding everyone of the strict rules surrounding player involvement with sports betting, regardless of whether they bet on baseball or other sports.

Speaker 1

To synthesize what we've discussed, the baseball landscape is just incredibly dynamic right now.

You have the Blue Jays and the Dodgers aggressively addressing their World Series.

Speaker 2

Outcomes, and Toronto in particular is showing massive ambition targeting top tier talents like Kyle Tucker and Edwin.

Speaker 1

Diaz, and the major market decisions around Pee Alonso and the top relievers will dictate the movement of the entire league.

The decision on a four year versus a five year deal for Alonso could send him to a.

Speaker 2

Division rival, which would create a massive ripple effect in the first base market.

At the same time, the Mets decision on whether to incurk QFA penalties for a top starter or go after less costly international talent like Tatsuya Ami will shape their rotation for years.

Speaker 1

What stands out most profoundly, though, is the juxtaposition between the extreme high ends spending one hundred and fifty million dollars for Bregman, one hundred million dollars rumors for Dz, and the incredible value found in unheralded players.

Speaker 2

That's the constant tension in baseball that gms have to manage.

We talk about the massive decade long contractstopt by Alonzo, but then you look at the success stories of utility players mcguil Rojas delivering the game tying World Series Game seven home run at minimal cost, or.

Speaker 1

Ernie Clementz, who has picked up off the scrap heap and hit point four to one to one in the postseason.

They weren't the stars, but they were the difference makers in the crucial moments of the twenty twenty five season.

Speaker 2

They offered extraordinary return on investment when the pressure was highest.

Exactly this highlights baseball's constant tension between stars and depth.

The question GM's face is do I buy one hundred million dollar closer or do I use that money to sign ten players like Rojas and Clement.

Speaker 1

So here is the final provocative thought for you them all over the success stories of these utility players Rojas and Clement winning the World Series, it suggests that depth players and high quality utility value are being significantly undervalued by the market compared to sluggers.

Speaker 2

So will the league actually learn from Toronto's and LA's championship paths.

Will they start prioritizing these high floor, high versatility deep players in the coming years.

Speaker 1

Or will the bidding wars for a limited number of aging, high power stars just intensify, driven by fan excitement and marketing dollars, leaving teams vulnerable when those unexpected, cost controlled heroes are needed most.

Speaker 2

In October, a truly fascinating question that we will see answered over the next few weeks.

As these big contracts get signed.

We'll be watching to see if gms pivot toward that Clement and Roja's model of value, or if they continue chasing the huge power bats this offseason.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us on this deep dive into the twenty twenty six baseball off season.

Speaker 2

Until next time,

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