The Thanksgiving Turkey is barely cold, but the MLB hot stove is already absolutely scorching.

Welcome to the Baseball Podcast.

It is.

I mean, if you thought things would cool down after the Dodgers raised the trophy, you were completely wrong, not at all.

It feels like we're deep in the off season, but the market just exploded right out of the gate.

It really has the pace this winter has been well, pretty much unprecedented.

Usually you see teams do this slow, intricate dance, right they wait for the winter meetings to really set the market right.

But this year, a couple of huge dominoes.

I'm thinking of that Mets in Rangers trade and then the Blue Jays signing.

It's like they've just accelerated the timeline for everyone, position players, top tier pitchers.

Everything is moving.

We're talking about huge, landscape altering moves from the jump.

The New York Mets sent Brandon Nimo, a huge fan favorite who had just signed that massive eight year deal just a year ago, exactly send him packing to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semon.

I mean that alone signal a radical, immediate pivot in Queen's And then you have the Toronto Blue Jays just firing the first cannon shot in the Al East Arms race.

And that's exactly what we're going to unpack today.

We're going to dive into these monumental shifts, these huge financial gambles teams are taking.

We'll look at the high stakes decisions facing these clubs, especially the ones trying to unseat the Dodgers' new dynasty.

And we're going to get into some of the surprising trade targets and the really complicated contract situations that are already defining this winter.

We've got some incredible stories for you.

We're going to look into that absolutely electric sixty home run season that carried the Mariners to the break of the World.

Series, and the really complicated futures for guys like Nolan Arnaudo and Jeff McNeil, veterans who could be on the move.

And you will not want to miss this.

The mindset of the Javitese pitching star who explicitly told executives he does not want to join the Dodgers super team because, in his words, he wants to take them down.

It's fantastic.

It's not just about who spends the most anymore.

It's about who spends the smartest.

We've got the analysis to show you which teams are making strategic investments and which ones, well, which ones might be buying a very very expensive bust.

All right, let's jump right into the biggest money move of the winter so far.

Let's do it.

Let's start with the most expensive commitment we've seen, the Dylancy's mega deal.

I mean, the Toronto Blue Jays were agonizingly close to winning it all on twenty twenty.

Five, two outs away, just painful two ounces.

Away from lifting the trophy.

And that pain, you can just feel it, clearly fueled their urgency.

They didn't just go shopping.

They bought out the entire luxury store.

They absolutely took a bold and I mean costly gamble.

And you have to look at the context here.

The contract is reportedly seven years, two hundred and ten million dollars.

That's a thirty million dollar average annual value an aav of thirty million for a starting pitcher in this market.

That number just jumps right off the page, especially when you look at his record.

It really does.

Okay, so let's get into why this deal is being called, you know, exorbitant by some people.

Cease is the definition of boone or busts Right, the boon part, you can't deny it.

Two hundred and fifteen strikeouts in one hundred and sixty eight innings in twenty twenty five, that level of swing and miss is absolutely elite.

His stuff is just phenomenal.

It is his stuff.

Metrics are top of the league, but the market and the Blue Jays are pricing him as a true number one ACE and his production profile doesn't quite match that long term reliability you want.

So you have to pair that immense upside with the immediate risk.

Exactly, he had a four point five to five EIRAI last season that is significantly higher than what you'd expect for a thirty million dollar pitcher.

And maybe more critically, his inning is average was low, how low?

Just five point two five innings per start.

So you're paying ace money for these huge strikeout numbers, but you are absorbing the risk of you know, mid rotation, innings length and a ton of volatility.

So a part of me looks at this and just asks, Toronto, are you desperate?

Are they compensating for the fact that their development system might not have a frontline starter ready right now?

Or are they worried that their window, you know, where their core guys might be closing soon.

Is thirty million for a volatile pitcher a sign of panic.

I think it's a calculative risk born out of necessity.

Yeah, the Blee Jays front office looked around and realized they had to do something big to separate themselves from the Yankees and solidify that rotation now.

Before the other top arms came off the board.

Precisely.

If they waited, they risk losing out on everyone.

So they're effectively betting two hundred and ten million dollars that their pitching development staff can cut his walk rate and turn that five point twenty five innings per start into say six point five innings per start.

And if they can do that, if they can fix that command, they have an annual cy young contender.

But if they can't, that contract, like you said, could become a huge, huge burden.

They'd be left with a right handed, high strikeout, high walk version of Blake Snow.

But the immediate impact on that roster is underniged.

He sunks into a rotation that already has Kevin Gusman Shane Bieber, who they brought.

Back, which was a huge move in itself.

And Treya Savage that high upside prospect, I mean, all of a sudden, that looks like arguably the best rotation in the entire American League.

It creates this immediate, almost overwhelming depth.

The addition of Cease presumably pushes Jose Burrios, who's a proven veteran, a guy who has performed in big games.

It pushes him to the number four or number five spot in the rotation.

That kind of luxury, having that quality of an insurance policy, that's what championship teams are made of.

And there's a stat that really underlines the potential dominance here.

It's a great one season Gosman as a pair lead all of Major League Baseball and total strikeouts since the start of the twenty twenty season.

That's a one to two punch that is just designed to overwhelm any lineup you face in October.

Absolutely, and the mentality of the organization seems to reflect the urgency of the deal.

Yeah, Max Schuzer, who they got late last year, and Vladdie Junior, they've both publicly referenced that Kobe Bryant jobs not finished Mantra after losing the World Series.

So this cease signing is management basically declaring to the fans, we are doing everything we possibly can to win it all in twenty twenty six.

Okay, so that brings us to their biggest rival, because this huge financial commitment and the just the aggressive speed of the Sea steal makes the silence from the New York Yankees all the more striking.

It really does.

The Yankees are, at least publicly just sitting on their hands.

They seem fixated on their big targets, Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, but they haven't made that splash that their fan base is expecting, especially now after seeing Toronto just leapfrog them in the rotation rankings.

And we heard from the owner, Helstein Renner about this.

He was asked about this perceived in action, and he expressed concern over the Dodgers dynasty.

For sure, he acknowledged the competitive gap, but he.

Also pushed back pretty hard on the idea that the Yankees have to match the Dodgers' dollar for dollar.

He did, he gave a strong, pretty detailed argument against that whole spend to win narrative.

So what was his counter argument?

Specifically, he argued.

That the correlation between just raw spending and winning championships is in his words week, and he used twenty twenty five as the prime example.

He pointed right at the Mets, who had that massive payroll and missed the playoffs.

Entirely, and contrast to that with who with the.

Brewers, a small payroll team that ended up with the best regular season record in the entire National League.

He believes it's about the strategic efficiency of your spending, not just the total amount.

But isn't it a little easy for an owner of one of the richest teams in the world to make that philosophical argument when his team already has pretty significant financial constraints.

That's the real issue here.

They absolutely do.

It's not just a philosophy.

There are concrete hurdles.

The Yankees already have a massive payroll overflow, and their flexibility got even tighter because of one specific thing.

Trent Grishamkes say in the qualifying offer.

Okay, explain for everyone why that twenty two million dollar acceptance is so critical to their flexibility right now?

It all comes down to the Competitive Balance Tax, the CBT and its tiers.

The Yankees are already deep into the penalty zone.

Now, when your own player accepts the qualifying offer, that entire salary twenty two point zero to five million dollars immediately counts against your CBT calculation.

And that pushes them even further into the highest penalty bracket.

Right.

It dramatically increases the cost of every single additional dollar they want to spend on a big free agent like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger.

That acceptance didn't cost them a draft pick, but it severely, severely limited their financial wiggle room.

So the Yankees have to be incredibly precise.

The pressure is on, especially with the Blue Jays loading up next door.

It's intense.

Most analysts believe the Yankees need a huge splurge.

They need to land one of those big targets, or, as one inside put it, two or three swaps completely off the beaten path if they want.

To win the winter, and if they strike out, the.

Narrative will be terrible and begonde that.

With the Blue Jays getting cease, a lot of people are already viewing Toronto as the prohibitive favorites to land Kyle Tucker, the best bat on the.

Market, So New York could miss out on the top bat and a top arm and just get left behind in a division that is only getting stronger.

That's the fear in the PRONX right now.

Okay, we've established the arms race in the Al East, but the action is definitely not limited to free agency.

Let's shift over to the National League, specifically the New York Mets.

They made a truly radical pivot with that Brandon Neimo for Marcus Semian trade.

That was a genuine shop to the system, trading Nimo, who is productive, a leader, and just one year into that eight year contract.

For Semion, a veteran infielder.

Yeah, it's just such a clear statement from the new front office.

It absolutely confirms David Stern's strategic goal.

He's prioritizing defensive stability, he wants immediate roster flexibility, and he's shedding long term contract risk, even if it means giving up a superior offensive player like Nimo.

Nimo was a fan favorite too, I mean, known for his relentless hustle.

Moving him sends a really strong message to that clubhouse, in that fan base.

What does it tell us about the Mets' new strategy.

It signals a deep philosophical commitment to asset management and future planning.

By taking on semons remaining years which are shorter than Nimo's deal, the Mets get that flexibility.

But more importantly, they're signaling that pretty much any non untouchable player, especially anyone signed by the previous regime, is on the table if the return is right, if the return provides that combination of defensive value and organizational flexibility.

It's a ruthless approach, but it could be a really effective way to reshape the roster so.

That NEMO trade immediately creates an infield surplus, which of course brings us to the growing trade speculation around Jeff McNeil.

This girl anx logical domino.

Right after NIMO leaves and Semion arrives, the Mets are loaded with infield and utility options.

You've got McNeil with his proven defensive versatility and his contact first bat, and.

Then you have the younger, high upside prospect Lissan Gillacunya.

Exactly, so the front office has is a critical choice to make.

Do you stick with the proven high floor player in McNeil, who gives you immediate value, or do you commit to Akunya, who offers more speed, more positional flexibility, and that untact power potential.

Trady McNeil, now, while his value is at its highest, feels like the classic David Stearn's move.

It really does, and if they do decide to move him, the Angels seem to be the primary trade partner.

The Mets are specifically targeting pitching in return to replenish their system.

Okay, let's look at the two pitchers they're reportedly focused on from the Angels.

The main target, the highest value option is a guy named George Classan.

He's rated by some as a top five Angels prospect and his appeal is pretty simple.

Velocity, triple digit.

He he has an electric fastball that sits in the upper nineties, so he's pretty close to being MLB ready with mid rotation upside.

He was great in double A recently.

But every high velocity arm comes with that detailed scouting report on the risk factors.

What's the catch with Classen?

It's significant control risk.

They call it reliever risk.

He was a control challenge arm in college and while he's worked on it, the high walk rates are still there.

It's common for guys who throw one hundred miles an hour.

To struggle to harness it consistently, so.

The Mets would be betting on their player development.

System exactly, betting that they can convert that high octane stuff into sustainable command.

The second name is Sammy Natara Junior, a lower cost, high intrigue lefty.

Tell us about his profile, Natara is a fascinating story.

He's a late bloomer.

He didn't even start pitching until he was seventeen, so even though he's twenty six, he's a really low mileage on his arm.

That's a huge.

Plus, and he broke out recently big time.

In the Arizona Fall League.

He showed off a mid nineties fastball, even touched ninety eight and paired it with a sweeping slider that gets a ton.

Of swing and miss, So it could be a fast mover.

Yeah, big frame, lefty profile and the potential to move quickly through the upper miners as either a high leverage bullpen arm or just a low cost rotation option.

He'd be a value play for them, and.

The Angel's ability to even make these trades is driven by a massive internal financial shift of their own.

The Anthony Rendon contract situation.

This is the definition of clearing a legacy burden off the books.

A new era in Anaheim.

It really is.

After Rendon's retirement and these contract buyout discussions plus trading Taylor Ward, the Angels are executing a major financial reboot.

They're moving on from those past big money mistakes.

So how does the Rendon buyout specifically help their spending power this offseason?

This is where it gets a little.

Complicated, it is, but it's all about that competitive balanced tax accounting.

Right now, the Angels have about forty million they could comfortably spend.

Rendon was owed a massive amount of money.

If they can execute this prag madic buyout, they're looking at eating over two thirds of his remaining deal right now.

That's a big immediate cash hit, it is, but it allows them to defer the final more manageable chunk about twelve point eight million across twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven, and.

The CBT implication of.

That, that's the key.

By deferring that last bit and accelerating the rest, they free up an additional thirty million dollars this year in immediate CBT space.

Wow, So that could potentially double their free agency budget.

It could.

It catapults them from being a mid market player to being competitive for guys like Cody Bellinger, Bobaschett, or even the Japanese superstar Munatakamarakami.

They are clearing the decks now so they can play at the top of the market this winter.

That is fascinating.

A classic case of short term pain for long term strategic game.

Let's turn to another veteran third baseman who's dominating trade rumors, also dealing with a big contract, Nolan Ernado and Saint Louis.

Yeah, the Cardinals, after trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox, are now entirely focused on moving Arnatto and the new team president, Jane Bloom, has been unusually blunt about it.

What did he say?

He stated publicly that after some internal discussions, quote, we all feel like it's best to find a different fit.

I mean that level of public admission all but guarantees a trade is coming.

But finding a trade partner is going to be incredibly difficult given his recent performance.

His twenty twenty five season was just a continuation of a slide we've seen since his great twenty twenty two campaign.

The numbers are stark, especially for a player of his caliber.

He posted a career low slash line of point two three seven point two eight nine point three seven seven.

That gives him an eighty seven OPS plus in twenty twenty five.

So significantly below league average offense from a corner.

Infielder, way below.

And if you look at the underlying analytics, the real concern is his hard hit rate.

It is just plummeted down to the twelfth percentile over the last two years.

What's the reason for that?

Is it mechanical or just age?

Most analysts point to an age related decline in bat speed's earning thirty five in April, and that's coupled with a tendency to chase more breaking balls out of the zone, which leads to weak contact.

The defense is still elite.

Though, That's the thing.

He's still a Gold Glover.

Oh yeah, plus six defensive runs saved plus three outs above average last year.

But teams need more than just a great glove at that salary.

And what exactly is that salary commitment?

He's owed thirty seven million for two more seasons, plus the Rockies are still kicking in five million, So a team is acquiring a declining bat, albeit with that great glove for thirty seven million dollars.

A year, So who can possibly afford that risk?

Who are the fits?

The only viable fits are major market teams with a big, obvious hole at third base.

So the most plausible destinations are the Red Sox, especially if Alex Bregman signs elsewhere, and the Phillies if they decide to trade Alec Boehm, who's entering his final year before free agency.

So both have the payroll and the immediate need to absorb that.

Contract exactly, and they'd be betting that the defensive value in the leadership he brings outweighs that offensive decline.

And are there teams that should absolutely be running in the other direction from this deal?

Oh?

Absolutely.

Analysts are practically screaming warnings at small market clubs that already have internal solutions.

Take the A's for example.

They need offense, sure, but they have Brett Harris who is cost controlled and actually provided superior defense on a per inning basis last year.

What about the Royals?

The Royals have makel Garcia established at third For a team like Kansas City, that sixteen million net salary is just It's called excessive purciing Ornado would be a financially and strategically terrible decision for them.

They just cannot afford a below average offensive bat with that kind of price tag.

The trade market is so intricate, so much financial cleanup, but the biggest dollars they're still waiting for the top free agent bats.

Yeah, and leading that chase is Kyle Tucker, who some are calling the market's apex predator, and that's.

Pretty well earned nickname.

Tucker is widely expected to get the biggest contract this offseason.

Some projections are putting his value up to a staggering four hundred and twenty seven million.

Wow.

At age twenty eight, he is right in his prime.

He's got power, plate discipline, consistency, five tool ability, and she plays solid defense in the corner outfield.

Okay, let's talk about that four hundred and twenty seven million dollar number.

What's the comparison that's driving a projection that high.

It's the comparison to guys like Juan Soto and Ronald Acunya Junior who signed those long term, team friendly deals earlier in their careers.

Tucker has sustained elite production all through his arbitration years and now he's hitting the market at the perfect age to command maximum length and value.

So he's projected to have what five or six years of peak performance.

Left at least, And in today's market where superstar contracts are easily breaking three fifty, that four to twenty seven number represents the premium for a highly durable, complete offensive threat.

And of course we have to talk about the Dodgers.

They are back to back World Series champions, yet they are strongly linked to the biggest name available.

How is that even possible?

It just speaks to their relentless pursuit of perfection.

They're champion, yes, but their twenty twenty five outfield offense was, believe it or not, a real liability.

It was described as pretty mediocre and even an offensive black hole for long stretches of the season.

I remember that.

Yeah, their overall offense was great, but the outfield posted a dismal point two nine to nine on base percentage and just lacked consistent power.

Tucker changes all of that overnight, So.

They're fixing a glaring weakness even though they just won a title.

Exactly, and Tucker is the perfect fit for their young core strategy.

He's twenty eight, so he aligns perfectly with the window of Yamamoto and Otani.

They see an opportunity to replace a position of weakness with an immediate superstar who can stabilize their lineup for the next decade.

And then on the other end of the spectrum, you have a team like the Brewers.

Won ninety seven games, but they recognize they just cannot compete in this arena.

The Brewers are the perfect example of that market disparity.

They won through superior drafting and development.

And while analysts agreed Tucker would be an ex ccellent fit for their needs, of course he would, the club knows they won't even be in the sweepstakes.

Their strategy is to identify cheaper, high floor of veterans, and that's just the reality of operating with a constrained budget against teams like the Dodgers.

All Right, the next big offensive name is Cody Bellinger, who seems to have finally put together the season he needed to earn that massive long term deal.

Bellinger timed his opt out perfectly.

He had his best season since his twenty nineteen MVP year, slashed point two seven to two point three, three four point four to eight zero with twenty nine homers, ninety eight RBI.

And crucially, he maintained that defensive versatility.

Oh yeah, stellar defensively plus seven outs above average across first base and the outfield.

That versatility just significantly boosts his market value.

And the battle for him is going to be intense.

Who are the main competitors here?

The competition is reportedly confined to the five richest teams in baseball.

The Yankees are desperate to bring him back.

His left handed swing is just tailor made for that ballpark.

He just owns that ballpark he does.

The Mets have an immediate outfield opening after the Nemo trade, so he's a natural fit for their power needs.

A Dodgers reunion is always possible, but the primary bidding war really seems to be between the two New York rivals.

Let's pivot to Pete Alonso and the extremely messy situation his free agency is creating for the Boston Red Sox, who are reportedly very interested.

Alonso opted out, He's looking for an ambitious seven year deal and Boston's interest On paper, it makes a lot of sense.

He hit thirty eight homers with one hundred and forty one WRC plus last season.

And he's that right handed power bat that Boston's left skewing lineup desperately needs for balance exactly.

But signing him means someone else gets displaced, specifically Triscan Kassas and Masataka Yoshida.

This feels like a recipe for some internal chaos.

It creates a huge domino effect for that front office.

If Alondo comes in, he is the full time first baseman.

At means Kristen Cassas, a recent top prospect, is either relegated to a DH bench roll, or more likely, he gets traded.

And Casa struggled mightily in twenty twenty five before that knee injury, so trading him now while his value is low is a really complicated decision given his team control.

And what about Yoshidah, who is also a massive recent signing.

The consensus among analysts is that Yoshidah's production as a DH doesn't warrant a starting job for a serious contender, especially a team that has other holes to fix.

If Alonzo takes first base, Boston probably needs to trade Yushida to open up that DH slotter just to free up cash.

It's a real conflict spin big on Alonso, but then you have to sacrifice a recent big investment in either Causes or Yoshida Right.

And meanwhile, the Phillies are dealing with a standoff of their own with their star slugger, Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber was the nl MVP runner up in twenty twenty five after clubbing a monstrous fifty six home runs.

The Phillies have said resigning him is their number one priority.

But his agents are wisely capitalizing on that monumental season, and the reports are that the two sides are not close to a deal.

And the critique we're seeing is that this delay is creating a sort of organizational opportunity cost.

How does that paralysis actually manifest itself, It's.

Simple market leverage.

Until the Phillies no Schwarber's intentions and the final number on his deal, they're financially and structurally paralyzed.

They can't seriously pursue other high end bats like Alex Bregman or make a trade for someone like Hotel Marte.

Because they don't know if they'll have the payroll flexibility or if the dh bot will even be opened exactly.

The longer this negotiation drags on, the more likely it is they miss out on other market opportunities that are moving quickly.

And we had that rumor about the Pittsburgh Pirates being linked to Schwarber.

That seems absolutely ludicrous given their spending history.

It did.

That rumor got a nine point nine out of ten on the industry's skepticism meter, because, frankly, it just defies all reality.

The Pirates have never spent more than what seventeen million on an external free agent.

In franchise history, right, So while it would be a phenomenal move for their fan base, analysts are viewing this as pure lip service.

They're trying to convince the MLBPA and their own fans that they're trying to spend without any real intention of paying Schreber the twenty five million a year he's going to command.

Finally, let's wrap this segment up with the bizarre JT Real Mutle market.

He's the top free agent catcher, but the reported interest from the Red Sox is baffling a lot of analysts.

It truly is confusing.

It highlights a potential lack of strategic focus in Boston.

Look, Real Mudo is a clear upgrade over almost any catcher.

He still hit a consistent point twenty five seven with twelve homers last year, and his arm is a legitimate weapon against the running game.

So if he's an upgrade, what makes the interest so baffling.

It's about their organizational priorities.

Boston has gaping holes at first base, third base, and in the middle of their bullpen.

What they don't need is another catcher.

They already have Connor Wong and Carlos Narvas right.

They just tendered contracts to both of them.

They're controlled through twenty twenty eight and they'll cost to combine two million dollars year.

So why would you spend eighteen to twenty million a year on real Muto when you have cheap, young options and far more pressing needs elsewhere.

His defensive profile is getting more complicated, too.

Isn't it It is.

While that arm is elite, his pitch framing was among the league's worst last year.

He was measured at negative nine runs, and.

In the modern game, framing is arguably the most critical defensive skill for catcher.

It is outside of blocking, So signing real Mudo means you're sacrificing value in that critical area for an expensive and frankly unnecessary upgrade at a position where you already have depth.

It just seems strategically backward.

The free agent market for bats is moving fast that the pitching market is just as dramatic, especially with the global interest focused on Japanese star right hander Tatsuya Emi, who is arguably the best picture available after.

Ceas IMI's free agency story is fantastic because it brings us right back to the dynamic of the Dodgers super team.

He made headlines by stating very explicitly that he does not want to join the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Who already have Otani, Yamamoto and Sasaki right.

He sees that as the easy way out.

He wants to, in his words, take them down.

That is a massive competitive statement.

It speaks to this profound competitive edge and a really unique desire for self reliance.

He said he wants to seek the sense of survival that comes from overcoming cultural and linguistic differences on his own, so.

Playing with other Japanese stars would be a crutch in his mind.

Basically, he feels like he could just ask questions and take the path of least resistance.

Instead, he wants the ultimate challenge, competing against baseball's reigning dynasty and improving he can dominate independently.

So that immediately changes the conversation about where he might land.

Where are executives predicting he'll actually sign?

An ESPN executive survey has the Giants as the favorite with five votes.

The idea of pairing him with Logan Webb to immediately challenge the Dodgers is really appealing and buying them The Yankees and surprising the Dodgers were tied for second with three votes each.

Despite what Amy said, teams still believe money and comfort could end up swaying him.

If the Yankees landed him, that would be a huge statement.

It would create a phenomenal rotation.

What's the general contract prediction?

The expectation is that the Yankees will ultimately land him for something around seven years and one hundred and ninety six million dollars.

Even with hal Steinbrenner talking about financial restraint, the Yankees still have the ability to outbid almost anyone when they target a specific international free agent they believe will define their rotation for years.

Another team scrambling for pitching is the Cubs.

They desperately need to make a move after missing out on both Sunny Gray and Dylan ceas.

The urgency in Chicago is acute.

They view the twenty seven year old am I as the ideal philosophical fit for them, a young star they can pay for future performance, which aligns with Jed Hoyer's long term plan.

And what is it about his stuff that they like so much?

He has a really high ceiling because of his unique pitch mix.

It's led by a spitter change up combination that generates just unusual movement and really low contact rates.

And even with the emergence of that rookie Kate Horton who had that incredible one point zero three ERA in the second half of last season, they still need major upgrades.

They do Horton and the return of Shoda Imanaga, who took the qualifying offer.

That's a good foundation, but the rest of their rotation is either volatile or aging.

The Cubs have made it clear they're pursuing multiple trade options to get two more reliable starters.

Guys like Michael King, Mackenzie Gore, and Joe Ryan are on their list.

They have to turn that rotation into a strength if they want to get out of the NL central.

Let's talk about a fascinating experiment.

The closer turned starter free agent Ryan Helsley, and the lead closer is being pursued as a potential starting pitcher with the Detroit Tigers as the main suitor.

This is a classic cheap by low high upside gamble for a financially constrained team like Detroit, and it's not coming out of nowhere.

Helsley was primarily a starter in the Miners.

He had a two point eight four ERA across sixty nine starts down there.

So the Tigers need pitching help and Helsley is a way to potentially acquire a front and arm without paying top end free agent prices.

That's the idea, but the risk of converting a high leverage reliever back into a starter is immense.

There are a lot of pitfalls.

What are the main ones?

The biggest risks are injury and a decline in velocity past the sixty pitch mark.

Closers train for max effort over one inning.

Converting to a starter requires building up to one hundred pitches while maintaining efficiency, and that often results in a one or two mile per hour drop in velocity as the game.

Goes on, but if it fails, he can always go back to.

The bullpen, right which is the safety net here.

He can revert to being a high leverage reliever, which Detroit still needs.

But they are gambling their rotation hopes on a massive structural change to his arm care and his workload switching.

To bullpen health.

H Josh Hater he suffered that capsule sprain in his throwing shoulder that ended his twenty twenty five season in August.

Where does his recovery stand.

The reports are that Hayter is back to normal, he avoided surgery, which is huge, and has completed his throwing program.

He's expected to be ready to go for spring training.

But that injury raised some serious workload concerns, especially after he kind of reversed his long standing approach to multi inning appearances after he signed that big contract.

That's the critical narrative that has to worry the astros.

Hayter historically avoided multi inning outings before he signed that five year, ninety five million dollar deal, and after he signed it he reversed course.

He made seven multi inning appearances in twenty twenty five that significantly increased the stress on his arm, and it culminated in a season high thirty six pitches right before he got hurt.

And given his unique mechanics, what's the long term prognosis for recurring injury?

Here?

His mechanics are the issue.

Hayter uses a really pronounced cross body pitching action, and while that's great for deception and movement, it places significantly more strain on the sholder, capsule and the laborm then a pure over the top delivery.

So analystsy this is a potential recurring problem.

They do, and while Hater insists he's still open to multi inning work, his long term health is a serious question for the Astros.

That violent delivery style is just inherently higher risk.

Before we move on from pitching, we have to talk about Paul Skeens and the pre arbitration bonus pool.

Skeens the Pirates.

Raady was the unanimous National League Cy Young Winner in twenty twenty five, led the majors with a one point nine to seven ERA, just an incredible season, and because of that he received a record three point four three million dollars from the pre arbitration bonus pool.

We hear about this pool a lot, but for the listener who doesn't try player economics.

How exactly does this bonus pool work and how did Skeens get such a huge payout.

It's a mechanism that was established in the twenty twenty two CBA and it's designed to make sure top young players get paid fairly before they're eligible for arbitration.

It's a massive, multi million dollar pool that gets distributed every.

Year, and players qualify based on performance.

Right performance metrics finishing the top five for MVP or Cy Young, which Skeens did, or being named Rookie of the Year, or achieving high war metrics in your first three seasons.

Skin Cy Young win triggered the top payout bracket and it raised his two year pre ARB earnings to over five and a half million dollars.

It's a direct financial reward for elite performance and.

Finally, a fascinating technical development involving the new automated ball Strike Challenge system.

This is great Guardian's prospect.

Trenton Denholm is already adapting his pitch mix to exploit the new system, which is set to debut officially in twenty twenty six.

He's added both a knuckleball and a sinker to his repertoire.

The strategy here is brilliant.

Why a knuckleball, of all pitches, how is that effective against an automated system.

The BABS system relies on predictive models based on spin and trajectory.

Pitches with extremely low or chaotic spin, like a knuckleball or a high movement sinker.

They challenged the AI's ability to accurately predict the ball's final location over.

The plate, so he thinks the knuckleball could steal more strikes.

That's the theory that the unpredictable flutter could make the zone definition more generous to non traditional pitches.

It's just a great example of players immediately strategizing around new technologies.

Okay, let's turn our attention out west to the Seattle Mariners.

The twenty twenty five season will be remembered for one of the most incredible individual power displays in history.

Cal Rawley becoming the first catcher and only the seventh player ever to hit sixty home runs in a single season.

It was just the stuff of legend.

He carried that team offensively, finished just four vote shy of the al MVP Award, and he powered the Mariners all the way to the American League Championship Series.

They fell just one game short in the World Series, but that team I proved they were a true contender.

And he had incredible support from that core.

Julio Rodriguez continues to be an all around superstar.

He logged a career high six point eight evil, a one twenty eight ops plus man and finished sixth in MVP voting.

And you can't forget the bullpen.

Andre's Minoz established himself as a true lockdown closer thirty eight saves a one point seventy three er.

The fact that the Mariners had both a generational power season and a dominant corps clicking at the same time, it led to some incredible playoff moments.

Let's just revisit those emotional moments for a second.

They provided heroics that will define that franchise for years.

You had Jorge Polanco with the walk off RBI single and the fifteenth inning of alds Game five against the Tigers, an unbelievable game, and then in the ALCS, Eugenio Suarez blasted a grand Slam in Game five and a tie game which briefly gave them the series lead.

Those emotional highs just cemented that core as a legitimate force.

So now that they're firmly in contention mode, the Mariners faced that really challenging balancing act that every successful team has.

To deal with, integrating their next wave of high ceiling hitting prospects without disrupting that established core.

This is the krit really delicate stage of their draft to develop.

In trade strategy management, Jerry Depoto and Justin Hollander, they've made a promise to the players and the fans.

They've committed to letting young players tell us it's their time, and they've promised not to artificially block them.

That sounds great in theory, but rookie volatility can absolutely kill a contention window.

How are they navigating the pressure from guys like Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Ben Williamson and the catcher Harry Ford all hitting the upper miners at the same.

Time, they have to rely heavily on positional flexibility and veteran insurance.

Hollander stressed how much they rely on versatile guys like Jorge Polanco and Leo Rivas, who were so vital last year, just to provide cover when a top prospect inevitably struggles.

Cole Young's debut is the perfect example of this challenge.

It is young started off rough.

I mean, he went a miserable one for nineteen.

That can crush a team's morale and a player's confidence if you don't have support.

But management showed patients they did.

And he's stabilized.

He had a great six or seven weeks before he just ran out of gas.

Their whole philosophy is that you're never going to have the team that you want to have in September in April.

You have to rely on depth and that versatility to handle those natural rookie performance peaks and valleys.

So the goal is just to acquire as many versatile players as possible so they can deploy the next young guy without sacrificing wins.

Flexibility is paramount.

Think about Harry Ford.

He's a high end catching prospect, but cow Raly is entrenched after hitting sixty home runs.

So Ford needs to play.

They need the versatility to let him get reps at DH corner infield, maybe even corner outfield, just to keep his bat developing.

It's about managing high value assets and making sure they stay motivated and productive even if their primary position is blocked.

We also saw the Mariners looking for some veteran depth with the signing of the thirty eight year old journeyman writing Casey Lawrence.

Yeah, Lawrence, who has a career six point four to two ERA through five games with Seattle last year, and that signing it's usually just a footnote, but it really highlights that constant search for non roster, high mileage organizational depth.

When your payroll is committed to the core, you need those low cost insurance policies in.

Triple A ready to soak up innings if an injury hits exactly.

And speaking of depth, the Brewers, coming off their ninety seven win season, are also looking for some familiar phases to fill out their rotation.

The obvious candidate for a reunion there is the lefty Jose Kintana.

The thirty six year old declined his fifteen million dollar mutual option, but he's still a workman like starter.

He's logged over one hundred and sixty five innings nine times in his.

Career, including twenty four starts from Milwaukee last season.

Right and as ERA has been sub four for the last four seasons.

That consistency, even if the advanced metrics aren't stellar, that is immensely valuable.

It is Milwaukee desperately needs rotation, depth and bulk innings.

Kintana could be a high end swingman for them, soak up innings out of the bullpen or fill in as a back end starter.

It saves innings for their younger, higher velocity arms over the long season.

They should be highly motivated to strike another deal if he's willing to take a short term contract at a slightly lower salary.

As we move into the quieter, more reflective parts of the offseason, let's look back on some of the biggest moments and stories that shape baseball culture.

And we have to start with the dramatic conclusion of twenty twenty five season, the Dodgers winning Game seven of the World Series.

The drama was immense.

The Dodgers getting their second straight trophy in a nail biting Game seven against the Blue Jays was a modern classic.

We have to rewind to the late innings to really appreciate the chaos.

The Blue Jays had the lead late, the Dodgers were facing elimination, and then Miguel Rojas, of all people, hits the game tying home run.

And that wasn't even the most dramatic moment in the ninth, with one out and the bases loaded, a sharp grounder was hit to Rojas, who was playing in.

He had to rush the throw home to a stretching Will Smith to get the bang bang out at the plate and stop the winning run from scoring.

That defensive play four stix tra innings it did.

And then the eleventh inning heroics.

Will Smith, who had just made that crucial defensive play, hits the game winning solo home run.

But the moment that truly defined that series and maybe cemented the Dodgers' dynasty mentality, was the performance of the World Series MVP Yoshinoba Yamamoto.

He pitched his third inning of relief in Game seven after throwing ninety six pitches just the day before in Game six.

That kind of workload is almost unheard of in modern baseball.

It's unbelievable.

It is.

He was running on pure adrenaline and just competitive fire.

He induced the final two outs on a single play, Mookie Betts cleanly catching a fly ball, touching second and throwing to Freddy Freeman at first to clinch the championship.

Yamamoto's sacrifice and the managerial decision to even push him to that limit.

It just spoke volumes about that team's win at all costs mentality.

Away from the field, Shoheo Tani continues to cement his status as a philanthropic.

He recently launched the Shoheyo Tani Family Foundation.

The foundation has a dual, very personal mission.

It focuses heavily on rescuing animals, which is fitting since he's a proud owner of his dog Decoy, and on inspiring children globally to stay active and live well.

This is part of a deliberate pattern of generosity we've seen from him since he came to Los Angeles.

This isn't just a new celebrity foundation either.

He has a documented history of significant giving.

Absolutely, in twenty twenty five alone, he donated half a million dollars for LA wildfire relief, and back in twenty twenty four, he and the Dodgers committed a million dollars for earthquake relief in Japan.

His foundation work is a clear sign that his connection to both the LA community and his home country is a major personal commitment.

Now, let's turn to a rare moment of cross rivalry respect the Boston Red Sox gave their Tony Kunnegliaro Award to a New York Yankee.

Yeah to the reliever, Tim Hill.

This award, which recognizes a player who overcomes adversity through spirit determination, is a huge honor, and Hill is the first Yankee ever to receive it in its twenty five year history, which just underscores the severity of what he.

Overcame and what was his specific adversity he overcame.

Hill was diagnosed with stage three colon cancer back in twenty fifteen while he was still a minor leaguer.

He went through eight months of chemotherapy, lost a lot of weight, but he persevered and eventually made his MLB debut in twenty eighteen.

And the adversity was compounded by the fact that he'd previously lost his own father to the same cancer in two thousand and seven.

That's right, It's an incredible story of resilience.

Hill is also known for his unique pitching style.

As a side armor he is.

He's a ground ball specialist known for his sinker and that side arm delivery.

He ranked second in the majors in ground ball percentage in twenty twenty five.

This cross rivalry praise just highlights that while the Yankees and Red Sox have that fierce competitive spirit, the human element overcoming a life threatening illness is something that transcends the game.

Finally, let's look at the baseball history explored in the documentary United by Baseball, which shines a light on Colorado's really diverse baseball past.

The documentary illustrates how deep baseball history runs in Colorado.

It arrived with the gold Rush back in eighteen fifty eight, eighteen years before the territory even became a state.

It details the early teams and mining towns like the Leadville Blues, and farming communities like the Greeley Grays.

But this section on race in the color barrier is the most historically significant part.

Absolutely.

The focus is on the Denver Post Tournament, which was known as the Little World Series of the West in nineteen thirty four.

It became a landmark event because it was the first major tournament to invite black and white teams to play against each.

Other, specifically featuring the Kansas City Monarchs from the Negro Leagues.

Right playing against white teams, and historians credit this event with actively accelerating the breaking of the color barrier.

Yeah.

One historian in the film argues that without the Denver post tournament, Jackie Robinson would not have broken the color barrier in nineteen forty seven.

It would have happened later.

This public, highly successful integration forced owners and fans to confront their biases and see black players competing at the highest level.

It's a key, often overlooked moment in baseball history, and.

The documentary also highlights the powerful resilience of Japanese Americans during World War Two.

It did.

It covered the Japanese Americans who were interned in camps like a mache between nineteen forty two and nineteen forty five.

They formed their own baseball teams and leagues, playing for a sense of community and joy, and partly as a demonstration of loyalty to the United States, even while being confined in those awful conditions.

It's just a powerful testament to the game's ability to provide hope and structure even in the darkest, most divided times.

This offseason is already defined by strategic aggression and these huge financial gambles.

We cover the exorbitant cost of the Blue Jays bid for the World Series.

With that Dylan c signing, and we analyzed whether that massive risk is worth the potential reward.

We looked at the radical shifting dynamics for the Yankees and Mets as they chased top bats, and the necessary financial cleanup that teams like the Angels have to do just to participate in the superstar market.

The recurring theme really is that battle between the high spending teams and disciplined organizational strategy.

Hal Steinberger argued that money doesn't guarantee success pointed to pass failures.

Yet the sheer dominance of the Dodgers, fueled by money, is actively challenging their competitors.

It's even inspiring guys like Tatsuya Emi to declare he wants to take them down rather than join them.

The ultimate question isn't just how much money is spent, but how effectively that money is used to fix your weaknesses.

We've seen the Mariners have a historic season carried by a sixty home run catcher, and now they face the challenge of balancing that winning corps with debuting a huge wave of hitting prospects, a real strategic tightrope walk.

And we saw the Blue Jays already one win away from a title decide to throw caution to the wind and pay an exurbitant price for a high risk pitcher.

So this leads us with a final provocative thought for you to conser when a team that is already this close, like the Mariners or the Blue Jays, decides to throw caution to the wind and pay whatever it takes, whether it's two hundred and ten million for volatile arm or a potential four hundred million dollar contract for a superstar outfielder.

Will that financial risk always justify the ultimate reward of lifting the trophy?

Or will the cost of a bad contract ultimately sink a legitimate contender.

The twenty twenty sixth season may soon give us the answer.