The World Series fireworks to settle.

The parade route is clean, but the hot stove season is already blazing.

Oh, it's definitely here.

Free agency officially kicked off right after that final out on November first, and the baseball world has just gone from zero to sixty in record time.

It's not just moving fast, it's moving violently.

I mean, this offseason has proven to be genuinely chaotic and fascinating.

We've seen significant trades, shaking up contenders and sellers alike.

And some shocking financial decisions from a team that just won the championship.

Right And on top of all that, we have one of the deepest star heavy free agent classes in years.

That's exactly what we're going to get into today.

We're going to break down the major moves that have already happened, analyze the superstars lurking on the open market.

We're talking everything from four hundred million dollar outfielders to opt out third basement.

And then they're the big names expected to be traded before the winter meetings.

We're giving you the shortcut to being the most informed person at the word water cooler.

And I think there's a theme here driving every single decision, and that's high stakes, calculated risk.

Every front office is making a massive gamble right now, a huge gamble, whether it's trading controllable assets for immediate help, trying to shed salary at the top, or you know, gambling hundreds of millions on a player who's entering their thirties.

We have to begin with a pair of shocking, one for one veteran swaps that just set the transaction wire on fire.

Yeah.

First up that middle infield maneuver between the Mets and the Rangers.

Yeah, this trade was a classic example of two teams trading what they saw as depth to fill a specific, a very glaring hole.

It's not a blockbuster, but it was highly sophisticated.

So what was the final deal?

Okay, so the Mets acquired gold glove second baseman Marcus Simeon and in return, the Rangers received veteran outfielder Brandon Nimo plus some cash I remember, plus an additional five million dollars in cash.

And that little detail is pretty important here.

What makes this so interesting to me is that both are you know, post thirty, they're carrying hefty multi year contracts, and Rangers initiated this just days after making these huge cost cutting non tenders.

Right, and you have to look at that financial context to understand the Ranger side of this.

They had just non tendered key players like Adolas Garcia and Jonah.

Him which is a shocker, a huge shocker.

The message was crystal clear they need to trim fat and reshape this roster, even after celebrating a World Series title.

So, while Nimo's contract.

Is long term, was it nineteen point two five million a year for five years exactly?

The Rangers were primarily focused on shifting their entire offensive identity.

They desperately needed discipline and a better hitter for average, and Nimo provides that he.

Is statistically a better hitter than Semion.

His primary value lies in that on base ability, which you know plummeted across the league in twenty twenty.

Five, so his numbers look even better in that context they do.

Nimo's one fourteen WRC plus in twenty twenty five.

Listeners who are less familiar with that metric, it means he was fourteen percent better than the league average hitter.

Factoring in ballparks, that would have ranked third among Rangers.

Regulars, behind who Seeger and Langford.

Behind only Corey Seger and Wyatt Langford.

So Nimo offers the plate discipline that sem and Garcia just didn't have.

But I have to push back a little on the grade here a C plus for the Rangers.

The concerns seem well enormous.

Nimmo is turning thirty three, his walk rate, which was once completely elite, it dropped off a cliff last season, and his defense.

It's downshifted considerably, and the concerns are huge or right, that's what prevents us from being a higher graded trade for Texas.

Nemo's days as an everyday center fielder are basically over.

And his arm has always been a question mark.

Analysts universally call it a pop gun throwing arm.

It's a significant liability in a corner outfield spot, and crucially, they lose Semon's gold glove caliber defense up the middle, which anchored their infield.

This trade is really an acknowledgment that they value offense and cost savings in the outer years over maintaining that elite defensive stability.

So the key for Texas is the long game.

They say five and a half million in twenty twenty six compared to Semions contract and Nimo's later years are lighter.

It all aligns with this new focus on financial austerity post championship.

Precisely.

It's a move designed to set up their books for maybe a deeper rebuild in twenty twenty seven or twenty twenty eight, even if it feels a little jarring right now.

Okay, let's flip it to the Mets, who also got a C plus.

Yeah, their rationale was clearly about dramatically improving that infield defense and shaking up a core that it disappointed in twenty five.

Well, Semon coming off a gold glove is a major defensive upgrade over Jeff McNeil, who he's essentially replacing at second base.

But the true driver here is the financial flexibility that the Mets got.

Even though Semion's av is a little higher.

It is for luxury tax purposes, but his contract is significantly shorter.

By shedding Nemo's long term obligation, the Mets gained critical payroll flexibility down the road.

Yet acquiring of veteran infielder feels bubbling when the Mets had this flood of high quality prospects like we saw Lacunya, Ronnie Mauricio jet Williams all seemingly ready for the infield within the next year or two.

And that's the major concern, and it's why the grade is mediocre.

Semen is thirty five and his offensive numbers have been trending south, operating just below league average.

If he blocks a wave of high ceiling prospects, this.

Trade could become a net negative pretty quickly.

Very quickly.

However, the ripple effect makes this move fascinating.

By trading Nimo, the Mets opened a massive outfield vacancy.

This makes their push for a top free agent like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger almost inevitable.

A necessary sacrifice to make room for a bigger star.

Perhaps that brings us to the second major trade, the Orioles and Angels.

This felt like a philosophical clash between team control and immediate specific roster needs.

It really was.

The Orioles acquired left fielder Taylor Ward.

The Angels got right hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Let's start with the Angels.

You gave him an a minus for this I did.

This move is purely about upside for a pitching staff that has been frankly desolate for years.

They are desperate for a true number one starter, and Rodriguez offers that potential in spades.

He was ESPN's top pitching prospect back in twenty twenty two.

That's an elite pedigree.

Absolutely.

The massive allure here is the four full years of team control remaining his big lead.

Results so far have been inconsistent a ninety seven ERI plus over forty three career starts, but the talent is.

Undeniable and he's coming off that injury right.

He missed a large chunk of time with a lat injury and a bone spur removal, but he is expected to be ready by spring training.

For the Angels, treating a good but aging corner outfielder for four years of a potential ACE is a massive gamble, but it's one they desperately needed to take to restock their rotation for the long term.

Okay, now for the Oils, the grade du assigned earlier felt genuinely harsh.

Why such a low nark for a content team acquiring a thirty six home run hitter.

I stand by the d Orioles.

GM Michael Aas stated they were chasing Ward for years, seeking outfield stability and power.

That's what's wrong with that?

The implied rationale is a massive vote of no confidence in Grease and Rodriguez's ability to live up to his hype or stay healthy long term.

And that is a huge bet against a player of Rodriguez's pedigree.

But Ward hit a career high thirty six homers in twenty twenty five.

That's immediate production.

You can plug right into the lineup.

It is.

But let's dissect his profile.

Ward is turning thirty two next month, placing him at the outer rim of his career prime.

As one analyst plummet, his skill set is narrow.

He's a patient, righty slugger whose batting average has consistently plummeted.

Down to what point two two eight last year.

Foundero point two two eight and twenty twenty five due to a very flyball heavy, taken rake approach.

Furthermore, his power profile may suffer significantly moving from the neutral climate of Anaheim to the notoriously pitcher friendly confines of Camden Yards.

So the cast is it's just too high for the production.

Essentially exactly training four years of a high ceiling pitcher like Rodriguez for one expensive view of Ward, who's projected at twelve to fourteen million, is highly questionable, especially since the Orioles already have a logjam at first base in DH with mount Castle, Mayo and Bissalo.

Elias is banking on being right that Ward stabilizes the lineup and Rodriguez flames out.

This trade is the definition of a high risk, low grade gamble by the Oriole's front office.

Moving from the surprising trades to the even more massive free agent market, the bidding war for the superstars is about to define the next half decade for several contenders, and we have to start with the undisputed top target, Kyle Tucker.

Tucker is the consensus jewel of this class.

The market projects a truly seismic contract eleven years around four hundred and eighteen million dollars.

Wow.

That price point immediately limits the pool of bidders.

But the key factor here and the risk, is his age.

He's entering his age twenty nine season, which is all than most players who secure those three hundred million plus contracts.

Precisely, historically, those deals are reserved for players entering their age twenty six or twenty seven season only Aaron Judge, Tree Turner and Manny Machado have secured contracts of this magnitude starting at age twenty nine or later.

The length is designed to buy the final years of his thirties, which is where all the risk lies.

But you know he is a rare five tool player who blends high end hitting, power, speed, and gold Glove caliber defense.

The interest is intense.

The Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles have all expressed interest, but some believe the Toronto Blue Jays are the favorites.

Why the Jays, Toronto is firmly in win now mode and they have significant financial flexibility coming up.

Major contracts for key veterans like Kevin Gossman and George Springer are expiring after twenty twenty six.

Gobell herm.

This gives them both the motivation, a closing window to maximize their current core and the eventual financial space to absorb Tucker's massive AI.

The commitment would be steep pairing Tucker's contract with Vladimir Guerrero Junior's expected half billion dollar extension, but it shows the Jays are serious about catching the Yankees.

Let's break down the big money spenders in the Tucker pursuit.

The Dodgers have fifty eight million under their twenty twenty five payroll and a desperate need in the outfield.

Desperate is the right word.

They're left fielders combined for a truly dismal point two two nine point three to one sieve point three eighty five slash line last season.

That's just unacceptable for a contender.

If they land Tucker, they immediately transform their outfield from a liability to a strength.

And the Mets, post Nemo trade, now have that open outfield spot and eighty seven million under their payroll.

The Mets have the money, but their priorities are They're fractured.

They are juggling the potential resigning of Pete Alonzo and closer Edwin Diaz, plus they desperately need rotation help.

Tucker fills a need, but he might not be their most pressing need, especially if they can pivot to a slightly cheaper star.

The Yankees interestingly seem crowded with Judge Gray Dominguz in the prospect Spencer Jones, why would they pursue Tucker.

Depth and versatility are always key, but realistically, the Yankees may be using Tucker as leverage against the agents for Cody Billinger.

Who they seem to prefer.

However, if they land Tucker, it means they are willing to absorb a massive luxury tax hit and potentially trade Grisham or move Dimingas to the bench to start.

The year, okay, shifting to first base and designated hitter.

Pete Alonzo the Polar Bear, is coming off a massive rebound.

Season, absolutely massive.

His twenty twenty five campaign slashing point two seven to two point three four seven point five two four with thirty eight home runs and one hundred and twenty six RBIs was a significant leap from his dip in twenty twenty four.

He improved his approach and durability, playing one hundred and sixty two games for the second straight season.

But the shadow over his massive offensive output remains his defense.

It's a liability, plain and simple.

Alonso consistently ranks among the worst defensive first basemen in baseball.

For our listeners unfamiliar with defensive metas, his minus nine defensive run saved and minus nine outs above average means that just by his range and positioning, he costs the Mets nine runs compared to an average first baseman.

So his willingness to dh is Key.

It's essential to his market value, which brings.

Us directly to the Red Sox, who have a glaring need for a right handed power bat.

After the raw Fael Divers trade.

The fit is perfect, almost too perfect.

Boston's brass has made it clear they need an accomplished right handed middle of the order bat.

Alonzo could split first base and DH duties, with the returning Tristan Cassus providing the raw power Boston has lacked.

This is the exact type of high impact signing the Red Sox need to prove they are serious about returning to.

Contention any other teams in the mix.

The Reds are a strong fit.

Great American Ballpark is a notorious hitters haven, and they desperately need a middle of the order power bat.

The Feelies are interested, but only if they fail to re sign Kyle Schwarber, as Alonzo's righty bat balances their heavily left handed lineup, and the Orioles Orioles, despite their one BDH logjam expressed interests, meaning they'd have to clear out someone like Anthony Santander or Ryan Mountcastle via trade first.

So if Tucker is the Rolls Royce of this free Asian class.

Cody Bellinger is the high end SUV versatile, slightly cheaper, and extremely efficient.

That's Kyle Tucker.

Lte to a t.

Bellinger offers immense positional versatility.

He can play all three outfield spots, first base and DH, and has a much lower projected contract six years, one hundred and sixty.

Five million, and he proved he can hit in New York.

He slashed point two eighty one point three three eight point four to seven seven with twenty nine home runs for the Yankees in twenty twenty five, demonstrating an ability to make contact.

And he is a superior overall fielder and runner compared to Tucker.

The Yankees have publicly stated he's their top priority, which shows they favor that versatility and proven success.

In the Bronx, and a reunion with the Dodgers is highly plausible given their need for outfield help and his history there.

Other fits include the Tigers, Rangers, and crucially the Mets.

If the Mets lose Alonzo, Bellinger's the perfect hybrid ONEBCF replacement fitting the Hoyd created by the Nemo trade.

And what about the pure DH power specialist Kyle Schwarber.

He finished second in NL MVP voting and is projected for four years, one hundred and twenty eight million.

The Phillies' top priority is resigning Schwarber, their DH and clubhouse leader if he somehow slips away.

The Cincinnati Reds are the absolute perfect.

Alternative the Ohio connection.

He's an Ohio native, his extreme pole power plays perfectly in Cincinnati's ballpark, and the Reds DHS ranked twenty second in the majors in ops last season.

He fills a major void for them.

Okay, moving over to the hot corner.

The complexity of Alex Bregman's decision to opt out of the final two years and eighty million dollars of his deal is fascinating.

Its signals confidence, doesn't it.

Bregman is the premier third baseman available, bringing not just offensive production but tremendous leadership value.

David Ortiz himself has championed Bregman's ability to stabilize a clubhouse.

The opt out means he wants a long term deal that guarantees him security well into his thirties.

Which teams are going to pay that premium for that kind of player.

The wed Sox love him and view him as a primary target, even with a strong prospect Marcela Mayer waiting in the farm system.

Bregman's established leadership and playoff experience are highly valued in.

Boston, but the competition will be stiff, very stiff.

The Tigers and Cubs who pursued him aggressively last year, and the Phillies, who could slide Bregman in at third base to replace Alec Bohm adding a more impactful hitter to their closing contention window.

We should quickly touch on the middle infield options, specifically, Bo Boschett.

Bishett is an ideal target for the Dodgers.

I mean he checks all the boxes.

First, they need an upgrade at second base, where their players collectively hit a meager point two thirty nine last season.

Lawful Second, He's a high average hitter, a need the Dodgers felt keenly when they're often stall in the postseason.

Third, he's right in his age twenty eight prime.

He's projected for a highly palatable five year, one hundred and thirty million dollars deal that leaves the Dodgers ample room to pursue pitching or a top closer.

Finally, the highest risk, highest reward international star Munataka Morikami.

Murakami is truly an enigma.

He's the youngest free agent available at age twenty six, and he has prodigious power.

He holds the single season home run record in Japan for a Japanese born player, with fifty six homers in twenty twenty two.

Teams are willing to bet on that raw power translating.

But the risk is terrifying, especially when you look at how he handles velocity.

The risk is enormous and it stems from his plate approach.

His strikeout rate has approached thirty percent over the last three seasons, which will only get worse against MLB pitching.

The most concerning metric, he hit just zero point zero nine to five against fastballs of ninety three plus miles per hour in twenty twenty five.

And he'll see that on every pitch in the Major's every single pitch.

He faces a very steep learning curve.

So if he adjusts, he's a perennial MVP candidate.

If he doesn't, he's an expensive bust.

That's why his projected contract estimates are all over the place, ranging from eighty million to one hundred and eighty million.

He mostly played third base in Japan, but scouts see him as a first basement or DH due to defensive limitations.

The Mets, who need power regardless of where Alonzo lands, look like early favorites per projection models.

They seem willing to take that massive leap of faith.

As free agency dominates the headlines, several national league organizations are signaling a fundamental shift, moving toward trading away veterans in exchange for young, controllable assets.

And we have to start with the Saint Louis Cardinals, who appear ready for a massive roster purge.

The Cardinals are openly pivoting to a youth movement, and they have the most attractive and frankly complicated trade chips available.

First up, Nolan Aronado a five star trade probability.

Even after disappointing season, the eight time All Star still commands huge attention.

He does, but the context is everything.

He's coming off the worst season of his thirteen year career with point nine war, though his underlying metrics in twenty twenty four were solid at three point two f war.

So what's the key to moving them?

The key is the Cardin's ownership, which is open to covering the remainder of his contract thirty one million over two years to facilitate a trade.

And crucially, Aeronado is willing to waive his no trade clause for more clubs than he was last winter.

So by eating that salary, Saint Louis turns a potential obligation into a really attractive trade asset.

Who are the likely buyers?

You're looking at teams looking for a short term, high impact veteran presence, the Red Sox, Mets, Mariners, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Angels, and even the Pirates.

A contender might gamble that he has one more productive Gold Glove caliber year left, especially if they are only paying him a fraction of his total salary.

Another five star trade candidate from Saint Louis is Brendan Donovan.

The versatile utility player.

Donovan is gold in modern baseball.

He's inexpensive, projected at five point seven five million for twenty twenty six and controllable through twenty twenty seven.

His defensive versatility is elite.

He plays multiple infield and outfield positions at an average or better clip.

Every contender wants a guy like that, every.

Single one for a team building a deep roster.

That utility value is highly sought after by almost every contender the Mariners, Royals, Dodgers, Red Sox, Guardians, Astros, and.

Yankees, and Saint Louis also has starting pitching to offer.

Like Sunny Gray, Gray is also a five star probability, which just confirms the severity of the Cardinal's roster fire sale.

He's thirty six and owed a significant forty million dollars including the option buyout, meaning that the Cardinals will certainly need to kick in some cash to move him.

Given Saint Louis's youth prioritization, trading an aging, highly paid starter for prospects is just a logical step in the fits the Red Sox, Phillies and Giants all needing rotation stability.

And Wilson Contreras under contract for two more seasons.

Contreras is expected to be shopped aggressively.

He's under contract for two seasons at thirty six point five million total plus a twenty twenty eight option.

There are persistent rumors linking him to the Red Sox, fueled by the presence of former Boston cbo Chain Bloom, who's now in the Cardinals front.

Office, moving to the Milwaukee Brewers, who just won ninety seven games.

It seems inconceivable they would trade stars, but this is their historical pattern, isn't it.

This is the Brewer's modus operandi acquire controllable assets by trading stars who are nearing free agency.

Freddy Peralta, despite the team's success, is a prime three star trade candidate.

He only has one year and eight million dollars remaining on his contract.

That makes him extremely attractive.

Extremely especially to buyers who need a high end starter without a decade long commitment.

The list is long Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Dbacks, and.

They also brought back Woodriff.

The Brewers also complicated things slightly by bringing back veteran Brandon Woodriff on a one year, twenty two million dollar qualifying offer, giving them some rotation security even if they do move Peralta.

Next, the Miami Marlins are looking to shed salary and leverage their pitching depth, starting with former Cy Young winner Sandy al Kintara.

Al Kantara is a four star probability.

The Marlins would love to shed his nineteen point three million dollars salary for twenty twenty six.

He struggled significantly in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, posting a five point three six.

ERA, but he finished strong.

He did.

He finished the year strong with a three point seven zero ERA over his final ten starts.

That late season success and his cy young pedigree will attract serious suitors who believe he can regain his form, and.

They also have the younger, cheaper Edward Cabrera.

Cabrera is a three star probability and represents the highest control value.

He is cheap and controllable through twenty twenty eight.

The Marlins could command a massive return for him due to his upside, despite his injury history limiting him to over one hundred innings just once in his career.

He is an excellent BILO candidate for teams willing to manage his workload like Coup, the Orioles, Wed Socks, Cubs and.

Astros Let's at the rest of the NL trade targets quickly, starting with Kateel Marty in Arizona.

Marte is a three star probability.

He is an NL MVP finalist and provides elite offensive production.

However, there are reports suggesting some clubhouse friction.

What kind of friction?

Specifically, he reportedly rubbed some teammates the wrong way by asking for days off during important late season games.

If the Dbacks believe this is causing a divided clubhouse, they could move him for a massive haul, given his team friendly contract for the next two seasons.

Potential fits Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Mariners, and Dodgers.

What about Mackenzie Gore in Washington?

A controllable lefty?

Ace Gore is a three star probability.

He's an All star left hander, only twenty six and controllable through twenty twenty seven.

The Nationals aren't a perpetual rebuild, and if they feel the timeline is stalling, Gore is their best trade ship.

The Tigers are rumored to have the prospect capital Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney, justin Henry molloy that Washington might cover it.

And finally, Alec Boehm from the Phillies.

Boehm is a four star probability.

He's entering his final year of arbitration and has been rumored to be on the trade block for years.

After taking a defensive step back in twenty twenty five, The Phillies could leverage him to acquire pitching or bullpen help before potential departures like Schwarber and Suarezeker maximizing his value before he becomes too expensive.

Beyond the blockbuster names, we need to dive into some of the key organizational philosophies, starting with the New York Yankees and the hilarious corporate double speak coming out of the Steinbrenner regime.

Regarding their payroll, Yankees' owner Hal Steinbrenner admitted publicly that lowering the payroll from their current three hundred and nineteen million dollars would be ideal.

However, he immediately followed that up by insisting that lowering it is unlikely if a beneficial deal arises.

That sounds like a man trying to talk to the accountants and the fan base at the exact same time.

What does unsustainable actually mean in the context of their.

Payroll means they are facing unprecedented luxury tax penalties.

The Yankees twenty twenty six peril is already estimated at two hundred and seventy eight million before signing.

Anyone, Before anyone.

If they resign their top priority Cody Bellinger.

They instantly vault past that three hundred million dollar mark and into the highest penalty tiers, which Steinbrenner previously labeled unsustainable.

So what's the message.

The message is that while they are publicly sensitive about the cost, they will blow past that mark if they feel Bellinger or Tucker is the missing piece to win a championship.

It's a fascinating high wire act for general manager Brian Cashman.

Moving to the Dodgers, we have to acknowledge manager Dave Roberts celebrating ten years at the Helm.

A phenomenal run.

Roberts boasts the best winning percentage in MLB history at point six' twenty one for managers with a minimum of three hundred and fifteen, games Three World series, titles and five appearances in The Big.

Dance that consistency is virtually unmatched in the modern.

Era but even with their stone, roster they made a highly nuanced non tender move letting go of Reliever Evan, phillips who is their closer in twenty three and twenty.

Four this is a shwed financial.

Strategy phillips was projected to earn six point one million in.

Arbitration the rationale for non tendering was his recovery From Tommy john, surgery which will likely keep him out for a large portion of the twenty twenty sixth, season.

So they avoid that arbitration hit.

Exactly by non tendering.

Him they avoid that twenty twenty six.

Hit but they still want.

Him, back which is the.

Twist that's the.

Twist The dodgers express mutual interest in bringing him back after he throws off the, mound likely on a lower contract or a long term deal that backloads the money once he's.

Healthy it reduces their immediate financial burden while retaining a talented long term.

Option it's a high level chess, move it, is and naturally THE nl Powerhouse cubs are already interested In phillips should The dodgers fail to lure him.

Back let's circle back to The Al.

West The ranger's cost cutting moves are the talk of the.

Division tendered A Doulas garcia which is a twelve point one million, Projection jonah him at six, million And josh sees.

Wars this move dramatically aids their goal of reshuffling while raining in the.

Spending it just confirms that The Semian nemo trade was part of a larger plan to clear salary and gain, flexibility even if it means weakening the roster that just won the.

Title on the opposite, coast The Seattle mariners are finally showing financial commitment by locking up their first base boyt.

Re Signing Josh naylor to a five, year ninety two point five million dollar deal was.

Massive it solves a first base problem they've had for nearly twenty.

Years that's a huge relief for a franchise that struggled to find stability.

There but they still have work to.

Do they still need work at second and, third and have Several rule five eligible, prospects Including Michael morales And Victor, labrada that they have to consider, protecting which adds another layer of complexity to their off.

Season and The angels made a bizarre managerial move alongside their big.

Trade, yeah hiring former Catcher Kurt suzukia manager on an unusual one year contract shows a complete lack of long term.

Commitment it just suggests the team is still in flux and operating year to, year prioritizing plug and play veterans and prospects over a structured organizational.

Plan now we get to maybe the most complex non player story of the, offseason the impending impact of the automated Ball Strike challenge system or the robozone on the value of the catcher.

Position this is a paradigm.

Shift THE abs challenge, system which relies on technology but allows teams a limited number, challenges could fundamentally redefine the most valued defensive skill for.

Catchers.

Right traditional wisdom says an elite catcher is an elite pitch, framer someone who subtly manipulates the ball strike, zone turning balls into strikes.

Exactly pitchframing occurs primarily in that shadow, zone the area just outside the conventional strike.

Zone if the system is near, perfect traditional pitch framing diminishes in valuell you because correcting those egregious errors will reduce the advantage gained by elite.

Framers and we saw the data from spring.

Training we did two point six percent of calls were, challenged with batters initiating four point four percent and the defense one point eight, percent with a success rate near fifty.

Percent so if we extrapolate those success, rates the offense would net what seven hundred and forty four extra balls over a.

Season that erases roughly ninety three runs that were previously gained by.

Framers that sounds like a death blow to the pitch framing.

Catcher that's the, prevailing simplified.

Thought but here is the critical, counterpoint and this is where the nuance is.

Essential the challenge system will make catchers who excel at probability management even more.

Valuable so the new elite skill isn't stealing a.

Strike it's knowing when the umpire missed one and correctly identifying when the challenge is worth the.

Risk, precisely the best framers focus heavily on ensuring pitches within the strike zone are called, strikes keeping strikes.

Strikes the challenge system reinforces this focus because the easy vis calls to overturn are those that were clearly strikes but called.

Balls the catcher's job now includes deciding if the risk of a wrong challenge which costs an, out is worth the possibility of overturning a bad.

Call it shifts from soubtle manipulation to tactical decision.

Making it does catchers historically ran a higher overturn rate than batters in the test.

Leagues the catchers who master the art of convincing the manager to challenge a ball that should be a strike or advising the manager not to challenge a strike that should be a ball will hold an outsized.

Advantage the skill set evolves from physical framing to high speed tactical.

Intelligence this system makes the smart, catcher the one who knows the edges of the zone and the limitations of the, technology the most valuable.

Commodity let's shift.

Gears completely To cooper's town because the stakes for The hall Of Fame contemporary era ballot have never been higher this year thanks to new rules that put some baseball legends at risk of permanent.

Exclusion this ballot is critically.

Important it covers players from nineteen eighty On Ard, words and the sixteen person committee is set to vote.

Soon the ballot is absolutely, stacked featuring eight candidates who average a remarkable seventy four point one career baseball reference War.

What exactly are the new rules that inject this sense of panic into the.

Conversation the urgency stems from the twenty twenty five rule.

Change any candidate who fails to receive votes from at least five of the sixteen committee members will become ineligible for the next three year cycle.

And if they fail multiple.

Times if they fail to get five votes multiple, times they become permanently excluded from future.

Consideration for players who have struggled with the character clause for, years this is potentially their final, lifeline and.

That of, course brings us immediately To Barry bonds And Roger, clemens the two candidates who define this.

Era their performance cases are statistically.

Undeniable Barry bonds is the all time leader in home runs and, walks with a towering one hundred sixty two point eight career B wayr and SEVEN Mvp.

Awards Roger clemens is third and PITCHING bwyr third and strikeouts and holds an unprecedented Seven Psy Young.

AWARDS i, mean performance records are clear.

Cut their statistical excellence cannot be argued.

Right the debate center is entirely on the nebulous character.

Clause the proponents argue that if these men are eligible for the, ballot the committee's focus must be purely on their on field baseball.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS A hall of fame that permanently excludes the all time home run king and one of the top five pitchers ever feels perpetually.

Incomplete and it ultimately fails its mission to record the history of this.

Board exactly, so given that the sixteen voters are strictly limited to three names, each and Assuming bonds And clements are statistical no, brainers that leaves only one precious slot remaining for the other six.

Candidates we have to assess the remaining Group Gary, Sheffield Jeff, Kent Dale, Murphy Carlos, Delgado Don, mattingley And Fernando.

Valenzuela and if we apply rigorous holistic evaluation, criteria a key trio emerges as the worthiest candidates for that final.

Spot tell us about.

That the trio that tied for the most compelling case Are Gary, Sheffield Don, mattingley And Dale.

Murphy let's start With.

Sheffield he had a borderline career B war of sixty point, five but he reached the critical five hundred home run club and showed a higher peak B war the value of his best seven seasons than several Existing hall of famers.

Like Dave winfield And Dave.

Parker exactly he was just a terrifying presence at the.

Plate In Don, mattingly the short career, Superstar.

Mattingly was the nineteen eighty Five AL, mvp and the key to his candidacy is his peak.

Value his best seven seasons are comparable To hall Of fame first baseman who also had shorter careers Like David ortiz And fred.

McGriff though his career was shortened by back, trouble he was the face of The yankees through the eighties.

And Dale murphy the icon of.

Integrity murphy had a very high peak, value ranking eighteenth among all center.

Fielders he won back to back MVPs and earned Five Gold, clubs proving he was an exceptional all around player and his reputation for a leadership and character is unmatched on this.

Ballot before making a final, pick we most give a nod To Fernando.

Velenezuela, Absolutely valenzuela receives the extra credit consideration for his immense cultural.

Impact Fernando mania was a genuine historical phenomenon in Southern california and Throughout Latin, america transcending his, excellent if statistically short of the typical standard, career his impact on the global growth of the game is.

Undeniable so if.

You as a, voter had that single final slot after Selecting bonds And.

Clemens who gets the nod Among, Sheffield mattingly And Murphy.

Based on the combination of peak, value outstanding all around, play those five gold, gloves and his unimpeachable, Reputation Dale murphy should receive that final.

Vote my final ballot would Be, Bonds, clemens And, murphy securing the futures of three players who define different aspects of their.

Era what an incredible start to the off.

Season we've seen financial austerity In, texas aggressive gambles on control In anaheim And, baltimore and a free agent market gearing up for bidding wars that will shatter.

Records the overriding takeaway is the tension between, immediate expensive impact and long term financial.

Control contenders like The rangers And orioles are prioritizing long term flexibility and cost, saving even if it means trading a high sealing prospect Like Grayson, rodriguez.

While the big market teams are willing to blow past unsustainable payroll limits to secure a superstar Like Kyle tucker Or Pete.

Alonzo the choices made right now will define the next five years for these.

Franchises it's all about how different front offices weigh that.

Value whether they're clearing, salary gambling on, upside or redefining the role of the catcher in the age of the, robozone it.

Makes for a frenetic.

Winter so here's a thought to leave you, with especially given those high stakes on the contemporary air.

Ballot considering the New hall Of fame, rules If Barry bonds And Roger clemens were to fall short of five votes on the committee ballot, forever making them ineligible for future, consideration would The hall Of fame still feel complete to?

You