Welcome to the epicenter of the hot stove.

If you thought this particular off season was going to start slow, well you have been thoroughly disabused of that notion in the last few days.

Oh.

Absolutely, we are now officially elbow deep in the deals, the rumors, and the transactions that will absolutely shape the competitive landscape for the twenty twenty six baseball season.

It's true the pace has I mean, it's intensified dramatically, mainly because we're just barreling right toward the Winter meetings exactly.

We've seen some massive, massive contracts handed out, some fully justified, others, you know, maybe less so, a genuine blockbuster trade, and the market for the biggest names is just white hot right now.

Okay, let's unpack this.

We have to start with the team that seems to be operating with an unlimited budget and a clear singular mandate to win a World Series, and that is the Toronto Blue Jays.

It has to be them.

They wasted absolutely no time in setting the tone for a high cost off season by immediately securing one of the winter's top pitching prizes.

Yeah, the Blue Jays aggression has been the singular headline so far.

Yeah, we saw the confirmed report of the I mean absolutely massive seven year, two hundred and ten million dollar contract for Picture Dylan Cease.

Wow, and Cease was without question the top high volume domestic arm on the market.

That was a huge defining move right out of the gate, clearly signaling they want to build on winning the al Pennant last season.

They are not satisfied with just making it.

They want the title.

And it wasn't just the big splash either.

Almost at the same time, they showed a really keen strategic eye by making another significant investment in the rotation, but this time looking across the.

Pacific, the Cody Ponts deal.

They signed the former KBO MVP Cody Ponts to a three year, thirty million dollar deal.

That's what two hundred and forty million dollars deployed into just two starting pitchers before December even started.

That level of spending is astounding.

It speaks to a very specific, you know, a two pronged strategy.

First, get frontline stability at almost any cost.

And second, and this is critical to think, what they see is high upside gambles on pitchers returning from Asia hoping to replicate some of those recent successes we've seen.

Right the Merril Kelly model exactly.

And you have to remember this isn't just padding the back of the roster.

These are multi million dollar contracts designed to make them World Series contenders, maybe even the outright favorites.

And speaking of high impact moves, we also had a major position player trade that quite literally swapped coasts and shook up the balance of power.

We're talking, of course, about Marcus Semion going to the Mets and Brandon Neimo heading over to the Texas Rangers.

That trade signals that several big market teams are just aggressively reshaping their identity, even if it means, you know, sacrificing talent they just paid a lot of money for.

It's fascinating it is.

The Rangers, who rely on defense, are certainly remaking their offense and taking a hit on d while the Mets are clearly trying to fix their own defensive shortcomings, even if it meant taking on a complicated contract profile with an older player.

The strategic trade offs here are just fascinating to break down.

So that's our focus today.

We are going to cut through all the rumor mills and the chatter to focus on the key transactions, the biggest remaining free agent markets, and most importantly, the strategic decisions teams are making right now.

We're looking not just at twenty twenty six, but at the long term competitive window these decisions open or close.

We've got a lot of ground to cover.

Let's pivot now to the biggest bats still hanging out there in the free agency pool, the undisputed number one hitter on the market, Kyle Tucker.

Yeah, he is the definition of consistent elite performance, a corner outfielder who offers speed, power, and reliable contact that really few others can match.

Absolutely, we're talking about a true five tool player who just rarely goes through prolonged slumps.

He's got a career point eight sixty five ops, which is outstanding, and he's consistently hit twenty plus homers and reached double figures and steals in each of the past five full seasons.

That combination is just so rare.

It is that power, that speed, and that reliability is incredibly ware and it's precisely why he commands the full attention of every major contender who needs that middle of the order presence and based on all the reports, the Toronto Blue Jays, fresh off their massive pitching spending spree, are definitely positioning themselves as the front runners here.

Oh.

Absolutely, There's a.

Confirmed report that Tucker actually visited the Blue Jays player development facility down in Dindon, Florida.

That suggests genuine mutual interest and I mean real aggressiveness on Toronto's part to land him early.

That visit immediately puts intense pressure on the rest of the league.

It says we are ready to spend and we are ready to move quickly.

Right.

But what's fascinating here is the immediate conflict we saw between major Baseball insiders about his signing timeline.

This is where you really see the two competing philosophies and free agency playout.

Okay, so let's talk about those.

What was the argument for Tucker moving fast?

What one perspective this is from Buster Only at ESPN suggested that because Tucker is so widely projected as a potential forty million dollar plus aav player, it might actually be smart for him to move quickly.

Get the deal done.

Exactly if he gets an aggressive early bid, say a nine or ten year deal for four hundred million dollars from a team like the Blue Jays or the Dodgers.

Moving quickly lets him lock in that record number and avoid any risk of the market softening later.

It capitalizes on that initial rush of team enthusiasm.

So hit the market fast, grab the big money before other guys sign and budget start to shrink.

But then we had the complete opposite take.

Correct, We had Jeff Pass encountering that reporting that Tucker is not close to done yet and suggesting that extreme patience is actually required here, so wait it out.

Yeah.

This implies that despite Toronto's early push and the facility visit, his agent believes that by waiting they can generate this intense competitive tension among all the interested clubs.

The goal isn't to just take the first four hundred million dollar offer, but to ensure that multiple teams are forced to bid four hundred million dollars or.

More to maximize the final number.

Exactly maximize the total value, and potentially push the guaranteed years even higher.

That makes perfect sense.

I mean, when you are the undisputed top guy, you hold all the leverage, You take your time to extract every last dollar you do, so who else beyond Toronto are the big market teams rumored to be seriously in the mix.

Well, the usual suspects are circling aggressively, the Dodgers, who are always looking to upgrade around Muoki and show hey, the Mets, even after the semi in trade, need more offense, and of course the Yankees, who desperately need reliable, high end production.

All three are heavily rumored to have had meetings or at least made preliminary offers.

And if a team misses out on Tucker, who's the immediate pivot?

Where does that money go?

That's the key for strategic planning.

The teams that miss on Tucker, and there will be many, could pivot very very quickly to the second best free agent outfielder out there, who is Cody bellingcher right, Billinger offers similar left handed power in a defense, though maybe with a little less consistency and more volatility and his overall profile, Bellinger will be the next major domino to fall once Tucker makes his decision, which you know could still be weeks away.

The Blue Jays are clearly pushing their chips all in that massive contract for Seuss and now the pursuit of Tucker shows they are well financially fearless.

But let's dive a little deeper into the pitching gambits, particularly that highly intriguing Cody Punce deal.

That seven year, two hundred and ten million dollar deal for Dylancy's was undeniably a statement of intent.

It established them as a financial heavyweight.

But I agree the more intriguing, almost high risk, high reward move is the three year, thirty million dollars signing of Cody.

Punts the KBO MVP.

Right, It's the kind of move they either looks absolutely genius in three years or you know, just disastrous.

Let's focus on the risk because this is where the story gets really compelling.

When Punts was less than the major is in twenty twenty one with the Pirates, he was I mean, statistically just performing at a catastrophic level.

Catastrophic is the right word.

He was statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball that year.

If you looked at pitchers with at least thirty five innings pitched, Pons ranked four hundred and twenty six out of four hundred and thirty six pitchers in a bunch of key categories.

Bottom of the barrel.

Era batting average allowed ops allowed.

He was dead last across the board in terms of suppressing offense.

That's a massive hole he has to dig out of.

He then went over to the KBO, completely remade himself, and comes back as the KBO MVP.

The Blue Jays are clearly banking on that success story model, right the one established by other guys who returned from Korea, and.

There are good historical comparisons.

Look at Merrill Kelly, who returned in twenty nineteen at age thirty and has since averaged what three point three war per one hundred and sixty two games.

And Eric said more recently or Eric fed.

He went to Korea in twenty three one MVP and then came back to post a phenomenal five point six war season in twenty twenty four, though he did slip a bit in the second half of twenty five.

The model is proven, but it is far from guaranteed.

So if the model is proven but volatile, what gives the Blue Jays confidence in Pont, specifically given that dreadful MLB track record?

The report suggests the belief is really tied to his stuff and how it's progressed.

He reportedly throws harder than both Kelly and Fetti did when they came back.

Oh interest, that higher velocity, specifically his ability to generate a ninety five plus mar of fastball, gives them confidence that he can immediately be a successful mid rotation starter here, not just a back end guy.

But let me play skeptic for a moment.

He was statistically the worst pitcher in baseball just three years ago.

To simply adding a couple miles per hour playing against a significantly lesser league in the KBO suddenly make him a ten million dollars a year starter.

That seems like a massive leap of faith.

It is a massive lead, which is why the financial structure of the deal is so key.

That's where the analysis of this being a worthy gamble comes in.

It's all about the value proposition.

Break that down for us.

Okay, so, standard baseball analytics suggests that one win above replacement or one war is typically that between eight and ten million dollars on the open market.

This contract pays Ponts ten million dollars a year.

Right.

Therefore, if Ponce produces just one war per season over those three years, the Blue Jays have essentially just broken even they've earned back the money and he's been a replacement level player.

So he just needs to be averaged to pay his own way exactly.

But if he reaches two war per season, so six total war over the life of the contract, the deal immediately becomes a great deal for Toronto.

They're saving money, and if by some miracle he hits the levels of a returning Kelly or Fed and produces, you know, three war a year, it'll be hailed as one of the best, most shrewd deals of the entire offseason.

For ten million dollars a year, that upside makes the risk worth it.

That's the calculation they're making.

This aggressive spending, both on the acs and the gamble ponts.

It naturally folds into the bigger narrative around their current core, specifically star shortstop Bobashet.

Right there's been intense speculation that if Toronto's signed an elite back like Kyle Tucker, it would necessarily rule out resigning Beshett long term because of the massive payroll implications.

You can't afford everyone, especially if you have to pay four hundred million dollars for Tucker.

That's the conventional wisdom, but insider John Hyman suggests that signing Tucker would not necessarily preclude them from bringing Bshett back.

The implication is that ownership is willing to accept an unprecedented payroll in pursuit of the title, viewing this as their only shot to win multiple championships with this core.

If they manage to pull that off, cease ponce Tucker, and retain Bashett, they would be the overwhelming World Series favorite heading into twenty twenty six.

I mean, that's one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, but it would come with one of the highest payrolls in the history of a game.

And that kind of spending is why we're going to have the labor discussions.

We'll get to later, but for now, the threat of Bishett leaving is definitely real.

The reports mentioned the Atlanta Braves are rumored to have significant interest in his bat.

Shortstop is still a priority for them, and beshit Je provides elite offense even with those well documented defensive question marks.

Moving from the mega contracts in Toronto, let's look at the mega trade that reshuffled the middle infields and outfields of two perennial contenders, the Rangers and the Mets.

Marcus Semeon heads to New York, Brandon Nimo heads to Texas.

This is a complex swap, so let's dive into the perspective of the Mets first.

What exactly do they gain by bringing in a thirty five year old Seman.

Well, the Mets are making a clear defensive priority move.

They're getting a Gold Glove defender at second base, someone who is just vastly superior defensively to Jeff McNeil.

Who they've been trying to move off the position.

Anyway, Exactly, it's a significant measurable upgrade in fielding metrics, which was clearly a priority for them after their defensive metrics really suffered in that twenty twenty five collapse.

But I have to push back on the enthusiasm for Semon.

There's a major looming risk associated with him, specifically his age and his offensive trend.

You absolutely should Sam is thirty five, and while he was an AL MVP runner up during the Rangers twenty twenty three title run, his offensive numbers have definitely trended south over the past two seasons.

He's been just below league average.

Which for a middle infielder is not great.

For a middle infielder at that age.

It's a precarious baseline and the forecast isn't great.

The expectation is that the offense will only decline further.

So the Mets are paying a premium for his defense and his leadership.

And what's the most head scratching part about this move from the Mets long term perspective.

It's the depth chart congestion.

The Mets are already incredibly deep in high quality, high upside infield prospects, guys like Louis Angelacuna, Ronny Marisio, Jet Williams, all of whom have considerably more upside than Semian at this stage of his career.

So it blocks them.

It seems to block those internal options in the short term, potentially creating a bottleneck that delays their whole organizational reset.

They must believe Semian is a crucial two year stop gap to stabilize the defense while those guys finish developing.

So the argument has to come down to the financial strategy.

Then, how does Semon's contract help New York manage their massive payroll?

This is the let's say, the genius of the deal if you're looking at it from a pure financial flexibility standpoint.

While Semian's aav for luxury tax purposes is higher than Nimo's twenty five million dollars versus twenty point five cents, his contract is shorter.

Ah.

That's the key.

Nimo's deal goes much longer into the future.

This is crucial for the Mets.

It helps cut into their considerable longer term payroll obligations, giving them significantly more flexibility down the road to spend on future free agents, even if they're paying a slightly higher price tag.

Right now, Okay, now, let's look at the Rangers side of this.

They lose a goal glover in Semian, but they get Brandon Nimo, who is highly valued for his plate discipline and on base skills.

The Rangers clearly prioritized improving the focus of their attack.

They needed to move away from that high strikeout power profile that defined them in twenty twenty five.

Nimo is rated as a better overall hitter than Semian, specifically because he can consistently get on base, and he's.

An upgrade in the outfield over at dullest Garcia, who they non tendered a huge upgrade.

Nimo is a much better hitter for average than both Semon and Garcia, and has the best plate discipline of the three.

These were sorely needed traits in a Texas offense that struggled with consistency.

The power output, though, is a downgrade from both of them, Isn't it That seems like a strange move for a team playing in a hitter friendly ballpark.

It is a slim power upgrade on Semian, but a clear power downgrade from Garcia.

Yes, but Texas desperately needed better on base skills and contact ability.

They're trying to shift their offensive philosophy away from pure power hitters who strike out a.

Ton, a strategy that led to some very cold stretches last season exactly.

Nimo's ability to draw walks and hit for average is a foundational piece for building a more sustainable offense.

We also have to consider the venue shift for Nimo.

He's moving from the pitcher friendly confines of City Field to Glow Life Field.

That could certainly provide a significant bump to his numbers, especially home runs.

Historically, Globe Life has been a very solid place to hit, particularly for left handed batters, and Nimo has typically hit way better on the road than at City Field.

That's an embedded upside.

The Rangers are hoping to unlog, but.

The trade off is glaring, especially for a team that relies on stellar defense.

You mentioned they lost Garcia, a strong defender, and now Semion, a gold glover.

That's the worry that every Ranger's analyst is voiced.

The trade is about remaking the offense, but acquiring Nimo, who's probably gonna play left field due to arm strength concerns, and losing a goal glover at second base.

It definitely dents the Rangers overall defense.

And the big question is did the offense need that much help to justify downgrading two critical defensive positions.

I'm not so sure.

Nimo's contract is a longer chump commitment for Texas, but for twenty twenty six, he makes five point five million dollars less than Semion, so that helps them reshuffle while rating in the payroll a little bit.

We mentioned Dylan CSK going Toronto, which was the first big Domino to fall in the starting pitching market.

So now we have to ask what does the post Cias landscape look like.

Who are the most attractive arms left for teams that missed out?

Well Field is still rich, but it immediately narrows, and the price tags on the remaining guys just went up.

The three most attractive options, especially for teams seeking that front end talent, are Frambra Valdez, Tatsuya Imai from the MPB in Japan, and Rajor Suarez.

So the demand is now squarely focused on those three.

Intensely focused.

Let's really focus on Ranger Suarez, the lefty who rejected the qualifying offer from the Phillies.

Tell us about his profile, Wolts and All.

Suarez, who is thirty, has been consistently good when he's healthy.

He combines decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground ball numbers, which makes him effective anywhere.

But he carries two major question marks that make his price tag complicated velocity and durability.

OK, His average fastball sits only around ninety one to ninety two, which is quite low by modern standards for an ace, and he has never logged more than one hundred and sixty innings in a season.

He's always battling these minor injuries.

Given those significant durability and velocity concerns, why is he so highly sought after?

Why is he potentially looking at one hundred million dollar plus contract.

It's a postseason edge, it's undeniable, and teams are willing to pay for that demonstrated ability to perform under pressure.

Suarez has been in the post season with a Phillies for four straight seasons and forty two to two thirds innings of October baseball.

He has a phenomenal one point four to eight ERA.

That ability to perform under the brightest lights is hugely valuable to contenders, and it's why gms are willing to overlook the regular season durability concerns.

But let me interrupt, there is it wise to base a nine figure contract primarily on forty innings of spectacular postseason pitching when we know his regular season durability is a massive question mark.

It's the highest stakes gamble a team can take.

They are paying for the narrative as much as the numbers.

They know they need pitching depth that can deliver in October, and Suarez has proven he can do it.

The Astros, Cubs, and Orioles have been identified as the most serious threats to sign him, and.

The Phillies are trying to get him back.

To the Phillies themselves are actively circling back and the Mets and the Tigers are also involved.

The Mets having dealt with a ton of rotation injuries in twenty five, they desperately need that veteran stability, even if it comes with injury risk.

And since you rejected the QO, any team that signs him loses a draft pick.

What are the contract predictions looking like considering that built in penalty?

Well, initial projections from MLB trade rumors suggested five years, one hundred and fifteen million dollars, but the predictions are scattered, which reflects the risk.

ESPN's estimates have been more conservative, predicting four years and ninety two million.

Dollars, but I saw one that was way higher you did.

The Athletic has gone much more aggressive, suggesting six years and one hundred and fifty three million dollars.

What market assumption would push them to suggest a six year, one hundred and fifty three million dollar deal.

That's a massive difference.

That kind of aggressive projection suggests that the insider believes the market will just completely overlook the durability issues and instead prioritize that small sample dominant postseason performance.

They're betting a desperate contender like the Tigers or Orioles will outbid everyone just to guarantee a frontline arm for the next half decade, even if he only throws one hundred and forty hundred and fifty innings a year.

If teams want genuine frontline potential but don't want that kind of length or the QO penalty, we have Michael King as an appealing alternative, don't we.

Absolutely King is extremely attractive because he's got that genuine frontline potential, but he's also reportedly willing to sign for a shorter term than the top tier aces.

The Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Tigers, Angels, Padres, Marlins.

They've all shown interesting King.

It's high upside without the massive long term risk.

And then we have the interesting value question around Zach Gallon, who had a statistically rough twenty twenty five season.

He's essentially a discounted option.

Gallan's platform year was certainly a down year, and it presents a huge opportunity for a team willing to bet on a bounce back.

He posted a career high four point eight three ERA and a career low eighty nine ERA plus feed.

That means his ERA was eleven percent worse than the average pitcher adjusted for ballpark.

It's bad year, but teams are looking past that one year and betting on his strong prior track record.

They are.

They're focusing on his track record from twenty twenty through twenty twenty four, where he hit a consistent three point three four ERA over one hundred and twenty eight starts.

That four year sample is much stronger evidence of his talent, and he looked much more like his old self after August first last year, finishing with a three point three to two ERA over his last eleven starts.

This makes him a very appealing alternative if the price on Suarez and Amai gets too high.

Let's contextualize this for the Detroit Tigers, who seemed to be in on every starting pitcher.

Their whole strategy is tied to the future of their ace, Tarik Scuoball.

It is the central pillar of their entire rebuilding effort.

Yeah, the Tigers have Turk Scuball, who just won back to back cy Young Awards.

It is projected by some as a potential four hundred million dollars pitcher.

Wow, but he's only controllable through twenty twenty six.

Along with Casey miz and Jack Flaherty.

They have this massive concentration of talent.

They could all disappear at the same time.

So why the intense pursuit of Swarzen Galen, who will command one hundred million dollars plus.

Why spend now when they have such good pitching.

Because they're preparing for the armageddon scenario.

The Tigers have one of the cleanest long term payrolls in baseball.

They're interested in Suarez and Galon to give them immediate championship caliber rotation stability behind Scooble, but more importantly, as protection in case Scuble, Mize, and Flaherty all depart in free agency after twenty twenty six.

They're securing a long term anchor now to mitigate that potential future risk.

Exactly if those three leave, the Tiger's competitive windows slams shut.

The starting pitching market is clearly moving, but we also saw immediate and aggressive spending in the relief market, which traditionally involves huge risks for those high prices.

Yeah, the reliever market has been surprisingly expensive early on, even for pitchers who carry significant red flags.

We saw the high outlay for Devin Williams, who signed with the Mets and Ryan Helsley, who signed with the Orioles.

It just confirms that teas are still absolutely willing to pay top dollar for established closers despite the volatility.

Let's focus on the Orioles.

They made a major push to fortify their bullpen for new manager Craig Albernaz.

Albernas has been really vocal about his excitement over getting closer Ryan Helsley and set up man Andrew Kittrich.

Helsley was deemed a high priority free agent for Baltimore.

And what's interesting here is the leadership element they're banking on.

Right.

I saw the Andrew Miller comments.

Former Orioles reliever Andrew Miller, who played with Helsley in Saint Louis, said, Hellsley is the type of guy who appreciates the team aspect and has the experience to lead and mold that Baltimore bullpen culture.

So they aren't just buying innings, they're buying presents.

Switching to the NL, the Cincinnati Reds, fresh off making the postseason, they opted for stability in their own bullpen.

A smart move for a young team.

Yeah.

Emilia Pagan re signed with Cincy for two years, twenty million dollars.

He was a straightforward move to bring back their closer, who had a career high thirty two saves last year.

Pagan said he wanted to be somewhere he felt comfortable, had a chance to win, and that valued him as the closer.

Cincinnati checks all three boxes.

Now for the great enigma of the reliever market, Pete Fairbanks.

He became a free agent when the Rays declined his option, and he immediately has several big clubs interested, including the Yankees and the Diamondbacks.

Fairbanks is the definition of a classic, high risk, high reward closer.

From twenty twenty through twenty twenty three, he was elite a two point sixty six era a huge thirty four point eight percent strikeout rate, But over the last two seasons there are major signs of decline.

What are those signs.

His strikeout rate cratered down to twenty four percent, He's lost nearly two MAML power off his fastball, and his home run rate has almost doubled.

He looks like a pitcher fighting his own mechanics in health.

So why are the Yankees interested in a fourteen million dollars per year reliever with this kind of injury?

History and obvious to decl it seems to run counter to their stated financial goals.

Well, the Yankees have an undeniable, urgent need for bullpen help.

The whole is massive.

However, they have a historical aversion to large bullpen contracts, having been burned repeatedly by guys like Roldist Chapman and Zach Britton.

And more importantly, owner hell Steinbrenner has openly said the ideal situation for twenty twenty six is to actively lower the payroll exactly.

Allocating fourteen million dollars a year to a high risk reliever seems completely contrary to that goal, So I have to question the reported interest.

Is this real or is this a leverage play by Fairbanks agent to force other teams to bid.

Higher using the Yankees are interested headline to boost his value.

Precisely, given Steinbrenner's comments, I lean toward this being leverage rather than a likely signing for them.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks seemed desperate enough to justify the gamble regardless of the price or risk.

They absolutely are the Dback's bullpen completely fell apart in twenty twenty five.

They finished with a four point eighty two ERA, fourth worst in baseball.

This is largely due to severe injuries to guys like aj Punk and Justin Martinez.

For Arizona, getting Fairbanks, even with the risk, is a necessary attempt to plug a massive hole.

He's a sensible and needed target for them.

Moving from free agents to the trade market, we've seen several teams use their current big league talent to acquire high upside crossbecks.

A perfect example is that Pirate's Red Sox exchange involving johann Oviedo.

Yeah, this trade was a classic move for youth and upside for the Pirates.

They traded durable starter Johanno Viedo and a couple other pieces to the Red Sox.

In return, they got outfielder Justinson Garcia, who was Boston's number three prospect, and a pitcher named Jesus Treviso.

So the Pirates are gambling two years of proven production for the potential of future stars.

That's the play.

What's the specific appeal and the specific risk of Justinson Garcia For the.

Pirates, Garcia is the definition of high risk, high reward, huge power potential.

Hit twenty one homers last season across double A and triple A, but his plate discipline metrics are alarming.

One hundred and thirty one strikeouts against only forty five walks.

A very high chase rate.

An extremely high chase rate, and here's why that matters.

A high chase rate means opposing pitchers don't have to throw them strikes.

They can just feed him Braden balls out of the zone and he'll swing and miss or hit weak grounders.

He has tremendous raw power, but if he can't refine his approach, that power will never translate into consistent on base skills.

Still a good return for Pittsburgh, though, for.

Two years of Oviedo.

Getting a prospect of Garcia's caliber is a nice return based purely on that potential ceiling, and the.

Red Sox perspective is simpler.

Oviedo plugs an immediate hole in the rotation without requiring them to give up guys like Peyton, Tole or Connolly early, and.

This trade sets the stage for Boston to make a larger, more impactful move.

They have a massive log jam of talent in the outfield with Duran, Rafaella and Abrayo.

By getting Oviedo, they stabilize their rotation depth.

Now they are positioned to potentially trade one of those outfielders for a legitimate frontline starter to compete in the Al East.

Another team openly embracing the reset is the Saint Louis Cardinals.

Their all star utility player Brendan Donovan is attracting heavy interest, particularly from the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners are persistently interested in Donzon, especially if they miss out on a free agent like Jorge Polanco.

The reports listed three very detailed proposed packages for Donovan that perfectly illustrate the level of prospect capital the Cardinals are demanding.

Let's break down those packages, starting with the one deemed the technically fair one.

That package involves shortstop Cole Young and third basement ty Pete.

Young is nearly MLB ready as a ton of club control.

The problem.

He posted a poor seventy eight ops plus and twenty twenty.

Five, so twenty two percent below league average.

Offensively, that's bad, it's terrible, and Pete stock is severely cratered.

The consensus is that Saint Louis has every right to demand more upside than this.

It's too much risk, too little immediate upside.

Then we had the upside play featuring two players with huge potential, but risks attached.

That included outfielder Farmelo and catcher Stevenson.

Farmelo has plus plus speed and a huge ceiling, but a concerning history of soft tissue injuries.

Stevenson is a power, overhit catcher who greatly impressed in Single A, but the Cardinals already have three catchers in their top six prospects, so it's a lesser positional fit.

It's a good offer, but redundant.

Finally, the one they can't refuse package, which involves two certified top one hundred prospects miss is Seattle offering up genuine future stars.

This is the high cost scenario infield or Arroyo ranked number sixty three and pitcher Sloan number forty four.

Arroyo's bat is definitely getting to play.

He has a career zero point four zero eight OBP in the miners, but his future defensive home is uncertain.

Sloan is arguably the Mariner's most exciting pitching prospect.

Mariners surely don't want to treat those guys no.

But Arroyo's positional uncertainty might make him expendable if it means getting an All Star caliber player like Donovan.

This pack is the clearest win for Saint Louis.

Beyond Donovan, who else is Saint Louis looking to move?

Wilson Contreras is a major name being shopped.

The San Diego Padres are reportedly interested in him as an upgrade at first base and catcher.

They could acquire him and take on the rest of his contract to solve two positional holes with one move.

And we also see bullpen pieces moving.

Yeah, Reliable reliever Jojo Romero is attracting interest from the Mariners, who are looking to add multiple bullpen pieces.

Meanwhile, it's highly unlikely the Cardinals trade Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker unless it's a massive deal new exact chain.

Bloom is believed to be fundamentally opposed to selling low on those two.

Let's check in on a few specific teams whose off season strategies are either clear, confusing, or simply massive, Starting with the New York Yankees.

They had a decent season but face major roster holes, especially on the pitching side.

The Yankee situation is particularly tricky.

Their immediate and most urgent need is bullpen help.

Compounding that, their starting rote will be without Jarrett Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clark Schmidt to start the twenty twenty six season.

That's three frontline arms on the shelf, which.

Makes their free agent targets very clear.

But they also have to be mindful of those budget restrictions, which limits them from competing for a Valdez or Suarez exactly.

Given the priority to lower the payroll, pursuing top tier options is complex.

This makes mid tier depth much more realistic.

Lucas Giolito, who had a respectable three point four to one er last year, is a realistic, budget conscious option, and I've.

Heard they're reluctant to add another lefty starter.

It's a very specific preference since they already have rode On and the prospect Luis Gill throwing from the left side.

The organization prefers to balance the rotation with more high end right handed arms.

They don't want to invest twenty million dollars a year into another lefty, even a good one.

And they are facing the perennial headache of the Rule five draft, which forces tough roster decisions.

They are the Yankees risk losing high performing undrafted reliever Harrison Cohen.

He's posted back to back seasons with sub two eras in the Miners.

Cohen uses deception from a low armslot, making him a potential plug and play option for a desperate MLB bullpen.

Losing a guy like that for nothing would be a massive failure.

Especially considering their bullpen needs.

On the West Coast.

The Seattle Mariners are definitely trending upward, and they've made a foundational, long overdue move at first base.

The Mariners kicked off their winter by re signing Josh Naylor to a five year, ninety two point five million dollars deal.

This immediately ends their decades long search for a long term solution at first base, a position that has been a black hole for them since the John Olaru trade in two thousand and four.

Wow that long.

Since two thousand and five, only the Pirates first basement have produced a lower cumulative ops than Seattle's.

This deal solves a critical historical problem.

Naylor is a fascinating player because his performance metrics are almost a contradiction of his physical tools.

Tell us about this oxymoron player.

He is a total oxymoron.

Naylor ranks in the third percentile for sprint speed.

He was one of the slowest players in the league, yet he stole thirty bases in thirty two attempts in twenty twenty five.

How is that possible?

It's incredible.

He is a high contact hitter, finishing with the seventeenth best strikeout rate and yet ranks in the seventh percentile for chase rate.

He is a safe, predictable, high OBP player who somehow managed to become an elite high efficiency base dealer.

He fills a huge gap for them.

And culturally, the Mariners are clearly building momentum.

According to Google's Year in Search, the Seattle Mariners were the top trending team in the United States in twenty twenty five.

That reflects a new level of national interest, and they're wisely building a strong coaching staff, adding former catcher Astin Nola this offseason.

Finally, let's look at the two time defending champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What's going on in LA post championship?

They never rest.

They are as always relentlessly focused on maintaining championship level talent.

The first feel good story was resigning mc L Rojas to a one year five point five million dollar deal.

The World Series Hero, the thirty six.

Year old hero who hit that game tying homer in Game seven against the Blue Jays.

He confirmed twenty twenty six will be his final season before moving into a player development role.

It's a great example of organizational loyalty, a.

Great story, but their real focus remains on acquiring elite pitching.

As evidenced by that blockbuster rumor involving the Tigers and Trek Skuble.

The proposed trade is stunning.

The Dodger sending Tyler Glassnow, Emmett Cheehan and zaiher Hope to the Tigers for the backback cy young winner Terrek Skuble.

They're willing to trade a starlight Glasnow to get him.

Because Scooble is considered a generational talent.

A rotation featuring Yamamoto, Scooble, Otawni, and Blake Snell would make them nearly unbeatable in a seven game series.

That is an unimaginable amount of pitching talent.

It would be the most dominant rotation we've seen in a generation.

It would be, and it just shows the dodgers relentless focus on the future.

And despite that, we've also seen outfielder Taskar Hernandez in involved in trade conversations.

What's the rationale for trading a power bat like Hernandez.

Hernandez has hit twenty five homers in five straight seasons, but his defense hasn't been fantastic and they have depth.

While the Dodgers currently view a trade as unlikely, the fact that it's even being considered shows their willingness to move core players to address other priorities like the bullpen.

This high stakes activity, especially the massive payrolls from the Dodgers in the Blue Jays, immediately brings up the broader context of baseball's labor landscape and the intensifying debate over payroll disparity.

This is critical to the future of the sport.

The Dodgers are going into the offseason with an estimated three hundred and thirty two million dollars payroll, while the Marlins are at the bottom with fifty nine million dollars.

That massive discrepancy is what sparks these debates.

And this is all happening as the MLB Players Association is preparing for potentially contentious CBA negotiations next December.

The stakes are incredibly high.

The core issue for the MLBPA remains the salary recap.

The Union has been firmly against any form of a salary cap since the nineteen ninety four strike, believing it would just diminish player earnings and allow owners to pay guys below their true market value.

And the reason this matters to you, the listener, is that this disparity directly impacts competitive equity and could threaten to stop the next baseball season dead in its tracks.

And here is the great irony.

Despite the massive spending disparity and the lack of a hard cap, MLB is often cited as having the most parity among major North American sports.

That's fascinating.

Over the last twenty five years, MLB has seen sixteen different championship winners, which is more than the NHL, NFL, and NBA, all of which have salary caps.

The twenty twenty five Mets, with the second highest payroll, missed the playoffs entirely.

It proves spending alone doesn't guarantee success.

Shifting gears slightly, let's look at the strength of some minor league systems, specifically the Detroit Tigers, as a counterpoint to massive free agents spending.

Baseball America recently updated its Tigers prospect list, confirming the exceptional strength of their farm system, especially a double A.

The offensive trio of Max Clark, Kevin McGonagall and hufue Brussagno have been the talk of minor league baseball.

Now they have plenty of help on the way.

They do, which is why they can pursue veteran anchors like Suarez and Galon now to fill the gap until those prospects arrive.

Finally, we have a great human interest story that shows the dedication of one of baseball's newest superstars, The Pirates.

Ace and NLC Young winner Paul skeens Skiings.

Recently took part in his first USO tour, joined by his girlfriend jymnast Livy Dunn.

They visited sailors aboard the us S, Gerald R.

Ford and the USS Mayhan, meeting with over thirteen hundred service members.

This commitment to the military community is deeply ingrained in him.

He was the Pirate's nominee for the Clemente Award last season.

Right he was largely due to his pledge of one hundred dollars per strikeout to the Gary Sonice Foundation.

He racked up two hundred and sixteen strikeouts, setting a new franchise record, and surpassed his one hundred thousand dollars fundraising goal.

It's just a great example of an athlete using his platform for significant community work.

Well, this offseason has flown out of the gate.

We've seen the Blue Jays aggressive pitching push with Cease and the high upside gamble on Ponce, the blockbuster Semian Nemo swap signal to shift in team philosophies, and the pitching market remains intensely focused on the few high end names left.

The central tension is definitely between those teams buying immediate championship windows like the Dodgers targeting scooball at all costs, and those attempting a painful but necessary reload through prospects and cost control like the Cardinals and the Pirates.

Everyone is defining their future right now.

So what does this all mean for the coming months As we head toward the winter meetings and the new year.

We need to focus back on the Texas Rangers.

They just made a major philosophical pivot.

They traded away a gold glove defender, Marcus Semion, to acquire the offensive skills of Brendan Neimo, signaling they prioritize on base skills over elite defense in that crucial middle infield old spot.

And the ultimate question for the twenty twenty six season is will.

The decision to dent their defense in an effort to truly remake their offense be the move that pays off allowing their offense to carry them, or will the defensive losses ultimately cost them enough runs to derail their next championship run.

That philosophical trade off between leather and lumber in Texas is going to be the storyline to watch next year.