Episode Transcript
Well, welcome on to the spot in It Rating podcast.
For now it's David Ardiant by Ed Chamberlain, Matt Brocklebank and Billin A's we want to look ahead to the Debenhams not on the high Street but still a brand and they're sponsoring the July Festival at Newmarket and let's start with the Comal Eclipse.
You and I were at Sandown on Saturday.
What did you enjoy a colic the fiftieth rnning of the Coma Eclipse.
Speaker 2Really enjoyed all the very enjoyable day despite the weather, great crowd, real noise, I mean they were roaring the start of every race it was.
It was a real buzz about the place, which is good and the crowd was up in last year.
And the race itself was I mean it was a complete mess yet upterly compelling.
Wasn't it a really really good race?
That you know?
We had a good half hour to dissect it and it didn't feel long enough after the race, and I thought I drove home.
I hope you got home all right, Ordy with the A three clothes, but I drove home thinking did I get that wrong?
You often question whether you've got a story, right or wrong or what have you.
Because my immediate reaction.
You listen to what I said as they passed the line, which to Jason Weaver has sella quad Doug Ryan More out of a huge hole there.
And that's the way I think I still see it.
I give credits to horse rather than this amazing ride that some people have said because everything went wrong, didn't it In the run he went inside, couldn't go there, and then they switched out wide and yes in the loft for along More was absolutely power packed and imperious.
But I thought the horse deserved enormous credit.
I really did his will to win his turn of foot.
I thought it was a brilliant performance.
Bonbardsman would love another go.
That rematch is going to be absolutely fantastic, I thought Onwardsman in the circumstances, ran a babulous race as well.
He got very worked up beforehand, but yeah, makes it really exciting.
Races like the judg On International and others are going to be absolute belters.
Speaker 1Thanks, Adan, you like to say Graham Cunningham's now John.
You're talking to GC very shortly, but Billy, I'll come to you first because that we saw de Laqua win that comed eclipse and time form I've given him a pretty meating number off the back of it as well.
Speaker 3Punchy won two nine already, which puts some second in the three year old list this year behind on the field of gold.
Of course, it was one hundred and thirty two.
It's an interesting number because he only ran into actually one two four to win the race.
But we've upgraded the performance for a couple of reasons.
One because he got out of trouble as as Ed has already said, and his closing sectional splits were really good, so we've popped him up to one two nine.
Like I said, pretty punchy for a three year old, and it looks like that division is really beginning to hot up now.
Of course, we've had two sort of all age group ones this year to date, the pretty pally in at the Court and the Eclipse of the Weekend.
Both of them have gone to baldly dying three year old, So maybe this three year old bunch areland as bad as we thought they were a couple of weeks ago.
And certainly Delaqua, you know, the kind of his route propably maps itself now with Judd mant Irish Champion Stakes.
Those start to races.
Even though Baldly Dylan were talking about the prospect or certainly Ryan mob is talking about the prospect of maybe dropping him back to a mile, but opens up a lot of those and like I said, big figure, so hopefully he can back it up now.
Speaker 1And gee geez, he was an eclipse that he just had to watch three or four times to get a good on, wasn't it.
You couldn't take it all in to start with?
Speaker 4Yeah, well you know Billy the garlanded in some beams there, Yes, Yeahsta del Corp this morning GC.
Speaker 5Yeah beautiful.
Speaker 4Yeah, it's three or four absolute minimum, a few points to know.
I wonder whether the best horse won.
I'm really looking forward to round two between Ombardsman and De la COI not much between them, but I think in another day, with a stronger gallop and a different ride, Ombudsman might improve on that form.
Speaker 5Secondly, I don't know whether anyone's mentioned it.
Speaker 4One of the brilliant aspects of this race that if there was a memo from bally Doyle, then Christophe Sumon hadn't got it on Camel Pasaro.
He didn't think twice about jamming the door shut on Ryan Moore when Ryan needed some room early in the strait.
Speaker 5So no, it's it was.
Speaker 4It was a compelling liss.
It wasn't the market support informative for Delacroix as well.
I didn't especially fancy the three year olds going in against the older horses, but the market was really strong for him.
So now it opens the door now for hopefully round two between Delacroix and Onmbardsman.
And the body language I thought, and the clip that was shown on social media between the Gosdens and mainly John Gosden and William Buwick after the ride on Onbardsman, I thought was it was quite informative, shall we say?
I think it was a difference of opinion in the way that race had gone between trainer and jockey.
Speaker 1But you can almost understand it with bway, couldn't you, Mattin that we've been spending all weeks saying you can't come from last to first and the clipse is going to be a fossili one eclips and also it was never meant to be last.
Speaker 6Does just that it well, yeah, it wasn't too dissimilar to the exact ride that Ewick got on Ombardsman who got a hym out at Trouble in the Prince of Web Stakes.
Speaker 7At Royal Ascot.
Speaker 6It was funny GC you were saying that Ryan Murray said he had to suffer, he had to he had to wait, and then then I had to wait for Christoph as well.
Speaker 7Comment after the race it was fantastic.
Speaker 6I love the punching number from time form as well, because you have to just really appreciate that turn of foot that he showed.
And I was slightly surprised as well to hear about the You know, we might drop back to a mile, but as soon as you look at it again from a kind of commercial point of view as well, he missed out on that mile group one last season when beat by Hot as Hell.
But you can certainly see them working back from a race like the QI two, like they did with Minding, who obviously ran over the Oaks trip as well in the spring of her three year old campaign.
I think he's a really really good horse, this horse.
I had my doubts about him over the trip in the Derby, massive doubts about him.
I was amazed that he was punted into the three to one price at the weekend.
But yeah, he's silenced me absolutely, and I actually think he could be the one now he's the you know, he's the flag bearer.
I think he might do on Butersman in a jub Mounta International.
But it is a fantastic race and hopefully we do see that really much.
Speaker 1It looks like that.
Speaker 4Unusual Derby mask the true ability of a few horses, isn't it.
You know that the way he developed and the interference that one or two horses suffered means that the word group one horses in there, they just didn't get a proper chance to show it on the day.
Speaker 1And very very valuable stallion prospect now as well, isn't it?
You say?
Very different for Coolmore Billy dubawe out of tepping going to to the stallion bar next year.
Speaker 3So one of the reasons I could see him dropping back to a mile later in the year.
Look, he's worked his weight in gold now for baldly Dyle because he is he's not a complete outcross because he has a Northern Dancer on both sides of his pedigree, but it's well back, so you know he's ideal for bally Dyle.
Know they'll they'll be thrilled with him.
And yeah, whatever he does this year, whatever he doesn't know, one him as a bonus, he's got his ten foreign group one as three or also yeah, he's a hugely valuable stallion prospect for them.
Speaker 2Though.
Speaker 1Let's talk about a couple of news as we have to talk about ed Ocean Murphy.
Last week Ready Magistrates Corp.
Pleaded guilty to drink driving fine seventy thousand pounds and given a driving band.
Lot being written, lot being said social media newspaper columns.
What's your feelings now about og Murphy?
Where Bha?
Where we are with that story?
Speaker 2Yeah, passions can run high, haven't they?
And it's over with the BHA now and you'd like to think I'll do something pretty soon.
It's been going on a fair while now and hopefully they'll make them moves.
So listen, you can understand all the different elements to it.
I mean, imagine how you feel if you're the passenger's parents and the angry h must feel.
Speaker 1You can also.
Speaker 2Understand where Andrew bolding and supporting the machina coming from as well.
The guy has been suffering from the most horrendous disease that YOUC has spoken very eloquently about on this podcast numerous time, and I think it's very very important that he gets himself sorted, gets the health he needs, gets on track, because he's a supremely talented jockey and he's very talented as an individual for the sport as well.
But it's a horrible episode this and the next movie is it's over for BHA and see what they do.
Speaker 1Jac you wrote a piece for the website spot and I'm still still out there.
I went out on Monday.
Difficult one to write collective family Easier is the angler you when you didn't think that helped?
Oh shean or what are your thoughts now?
A few days?
Speaker 4Not us to say it brought back bad memories for me.
Everyone's, you know, got some sort of connection really bad memories.
A few people myself included.
Sheen is the center of the universe around which all the satellites move.
Here and people like me I put some focus on the media action.
Some people put some focus on the BH reaction and next move.
It's not wrong to put some focus on the offender here.
It's not because the offender and the addic cally away.
Speaker 2I don't know.
Speaker 4I don't know about his issues we drink.
I don't know about that.
I don't have to, it's not my business.
But I do know that it can have devastating effects on the family and the friendships within that.
I know that from experience, So it's not wrong to put some focus on the blog who did it?
And now he needs to aim up and you know, and be be the top professional that he has the potential to be.
Speaker 5But it's now the six of cycle.
It's a cyclical thing.
Speaker 4We now move to the next phase of the cycle, which is him riding in a lot of big races and applying himself really well.
Speaker 1Hopefully Billy a jockey, different different reasons obviously, Colin Keene do to the will you to ride in regularly in England.
I it's very strong ride.
To get wind lawed home at stand in on Friday, eight uses of the whip means a fourteen day bam.
What was refreshing though Billy was how he held his hands up immediately and the exact what was It's my fault, Jeff b.
Speaker 3Collin Keen Orady to be honest, you know, that's that's just the way he conducts himself.
Speaker 2Yeah.
Speaker 3Look, I think if one thing that I wouldn't have expected him to get done for was a whip bend, because I can't remember the last time he got one in Ireland.
It seems very very harsh that.
Look, the rules of the rules and he broke them.
It seems very harsh that for going two strikes over the limit that he now gets a fourteen day band.
Does the punishment fit the crime.
I don't think it does, But that's neither here nor there.
That's a debate for a different day.
He did it, he owned up to it, and I very much doubt it's going to happen again.
I think you hit the nail on the head there.
He's in a new job.
He's riding for trainers that he hasn't written for before.
He's riding tracks that he's probably not that used to riding, and you know, he wants to make a good impression on these people.
And I think he may have got a little bit.
Let's possibly carried away.
You know, it's not his typical writing style.
He doesn't normally resort to the whip that much at all if he can get away with it, So he's done at once.
I think This is very much lesson learned for Colin Keen.
Don't expect him to get another whipman in the in the foreseeable future.
Speaker 1And Matt Jason Matt JC touched upon William Buick and the reaction to the Umbusman ride potentially the body language between the Gosdens and if now we're to believe it's widely expected it's going to pick up the ride on Field of Gold in the sus six Eggs with his former boss.
An interesting, an interesting decision they're going to have to make, and interesting that Buwick is the trust a pair of hands for that ride.
Speaker 2Yeah.
Speaker 7Yeah, it doesn't come as a huge sock.
It's all as.
Speaker 6A really a sensible move.
I mean you say that King's I think somebody said that Keane was getting used to riding at these tracks.
I think he's only ridden three times at Goodwood before in his life.
So if you've actually Backfield of Gold anti post and you're getting William instead of Colin Keen, it's quite clearly not a negative facin of the Gonstons chatting with Buick.
It's just so very racing, isn't it Just to kind of have thirty seconds here and there in a paddock in public to make your case and then rapidly move on.
You know, they're just such busy people running day to day running of the yard and race to race jockey ship in sort of Bwick's case, it's remarkable that they can't sort of find ten minutes to talk about this, you know, behind closed doors of the room somewhere.
Speaker 7But it was made for interest in viewing.
Speaker 4Can I asked one question around the panel and yes or no, it's fine?
And don't know is fine as well?
Do you think Shean Murphy's conviction will impact in any way his potential to get that field of goal right, don't forget he did ride lead artists and the lock into and those colors and just a couple of weeks after the incident.
I don't know, is the answer to you, And I think it probably should, but I'm.
Speaker 5Not sure it will.
Speaker 1I think I think it probably would.
Speaker 2I think probably yes, I think probably.
Speaker 1I do, and I don't know why.
I've got no reasons for thinking it, but I think probably none of us can know.
No, no, yeah, I don't know why they got And just with the Gosden thing as well, JZ.
You think back to it's quite a task master John is there, Richard Hughes when he was at Kalid Abdul or Paul Hannigan when it was hand Dans retained rider.
John has had views on jockeys in the past.
I don't think he's shy on.
Speaker 4His words aren't always backed up by subsequent patterns of behavior.
Remember Karen Sheermark was told that they were going to use the best available.
It defies logic that he's never been the best available since.
But he's not getting right, is he?
Speaker 1It's one name you can certainly put out the frame, isn't it?
The field of gold would be Kevin schu Mark Debenham's.
But I've got another plug for Debne that must be is no longer on the is it?
Speaker 3No?
Speaker 1Nobody still exists because responsoring the July Festival, I presume we are of Instagram account in which you're often showing who has dressed to you for the day.
Will Debenhams be one of the handles for the three days?
Speaker 2Not at this stage in terms of a tie and no.
Speaker 1Well, if you're listening, Debenhams of is an opportunity.
Speaker 2Of sponsorive opportunities available for this podcast.
Still, I'm quite glad.
Speaker 1To we have the come away from the toilet entrance as well.
I think we're will legally in busy Yeah, yeah, we're legally in a much longer position now.
Day one of the Debenham's July Festival, Princess of Welles's Steaks, had two horses who plenty been written about, Ghostwriter for basically for the purchase prices, Ghostwriter and Palladium topping the market.
What do you make of this one?
Speaker 2It's not it should be the best race on the cardiffs not.
I don't think we're going to learn a lot about the ledger in the bar N Trophy, the two year old races in Absolute River and the race all those two year old homelines going into that.
That's the race of the day for me.
This one race is going in and out of fashion, don't they.
This one doesn't even feature, does it really anymore?
This meeting is all about the Falmouth on Friday and then the absolute blockbaster who's got around the country on Saturday with the July clp, the big one at the Newmarket and Thursdays it's low key to be honest.
Yeah, ghost Writer, he hasn't once since he was too is he?
And I'm sure they'll have targets abroad after this and that rematches half easting the two good orphin horses to be disappointing, haven't they.
I think it's a it's a race where it's very hard to have a strong opinion.
Speaker 1Jac what are you looking for to Thursday?
What's on your radar for that day?
One action?
Speaker 4I think that looks to be ghost Writers race to win or lose to me.
Remember, you know this is the horse who was third in the Coral Eclipse, behind City of Troy and Al Rifa, third the International Juma International, behind City of Troy and Kaland again I thought you ran well with no excuses in the Hardwick, high quality Hardwick ahead of Palladium.
And Ed's right about the two good orphin als.
Is the very best isn't good enough to win this Wimbledon?
Hawkeye is looking a bit fiery and a bit you know, a bit awkward these days.
And if goes Writer beats Palladium again, which I think he ought to, he should be winning this.
He cost two million dollars two million quid.
He'd get just over three percent of that back if he won tomorrow.
Speaker 1That's the the purchase prices are significant for the two at the head of the mask.
Speaker 5He's when the Melbourne Cup You'll all be eating.
Speaker 1You will be apologizing, will be laughing.
Then, mat what what's your thoughts on that day one feature you're obviously cracking on with value about what else is catching your irot in your market phone?
Speaker 6Yeah, they don't seem to know what best trippy, what goes right as best trip is as all that they I don't think even now, which is amazing.
And like you say, it's ghostwriters to lose right being hash to the horse, it seems to sort of find a way to lose, doesn't he.
I wonder this palladium, this galloping course might suit him better.
It's not a race exer, Dave.
As you know, there is a three rolesp in handicap.
I'll be focusing on that.
I did just want to bring in I know Ed mentioned the July States.
I wanted to bring in there's a bit of a clash between Charlie Appleby's maximized winner at EPSOM and then the debut winner for aDNA Brown Brussels.
But I just wanted to mention comical point.
I'm going to keep an eye on his price.
For Andrew Balding, he made most of the running when winning on his debut, and then they thrust him into the Norfolk States.
I thought he ran really well as well.
They wrote him slightly differently.
He was written patiently at twenty two to one and Ashen Murphy looked after him, I think, but he stayed on pretty well, beaten four lengths by Charles Darwin.
Speaker 7I just wondered, look, this is a horse.
Speaker 6If there's ever a two year old called crying out to move from five to six furlongs, it's him and I just thought he might be one not to underestimate.
Speaker 2On the day he's ten to one chance, I think that which could be a big price.
A lot of pipe around Brussels and obviously maximizes the favorite, and ten to one could.
Speaker 4Be I think in these races this is a second wave of coolmore two year olds coming through, isn't it.
And I don't know how good Brussels is, but I saw him close up at the Kera on his debut and it wasn't a bad looking field and he's stood out a mile that there's a lot to look forward to.
Speaker 3With him, I think it is and Bali Dyll have a couple of very interesting runners this week.
Two runners this week which we'll get onto later.
But Brussel's is very interesting now he's only won a maiden, so he has a defined on form maximized obviously has won the appleby horse, has won twice, won the Woodcut that farm is working out whether he beat the winds or Castle winner.
We have do or do not with finish second in the Conventry, so obviously those horses have achieved more.
But Brussell's was impressive at the Korra.
The second d heard from that race have come out in one since, so he's an exciting prospect.
But strictly on farming is a bit defined, but it wouldn't surprise me if he did find it.
Speaker 1And Billy in the bar Mine Trophy Scandinavia the Aid and fifth in the Queen's Bars headgear cheap piece is going on.
Speaker 3Yeah, he's a bit lazy, you know, slightly disappointing.
I suppose he started off his career already finished thirds two green impact in Delacrat in the maiden first time last year, but failed to win a maiden as a two year old.
He did manage to pick one up at Navin's first time out this year.
That farm is going to mix messages from us.
He ran pretty okay in the Queens vaz he only finished fifth.
Well, it was a big step forward from him.
He looks like after we get two miles to me without any problem.
It's not a particularly strong barreting trophy.
But again on farm, like GC mentioned the Derby there nighttime Dancer, the only one of the field that hasn't run the Queens vaz On ratings is the one to beat here.
If he can come back to his Loomfield Derby trial farm, he's probably the one to beat.
Scandinavia.
To me, is is in the second or possibly even third tier of palletyle.
Speaker 4Yeah, I agree with that he looked a bit a bit do it, didn't he?
And also think just ahead of him Further, I thought he traveled through the race like the best of those Queens of Oars forces.
Further Scandinavia hallelujah and titanium temper.
I thought Further might be the one who who would come out on top again of that quartet.
Speaker 1Interesting interested face to Barna and trophy Tatsol's Foul Mistakes is the features on Fireday Group one.
Matt, it's a really much between Crimson Advocate and Cinderella's Dream from Ryle Ascott.
Crimson Advocate a good winner that day, Cinderella's Dream at the time of recording, just about favorite to take revenge.
How do you see between those big two?
Speaker 6Yeah, obviously not a lot in it at all.
I see time for adjusted figures.
Have Cinderella Dream just coming out a pound on top?
Now you could add you kind of Crimson Advocate came and picked her pocket.
It was obviously a fantastic ride by James McDonald and the Duke of Cambridge.
But I just wonder, you know, she looks an improved horse.
She's totally unexposed at the trips.
She obviously likes quick ground.
And I know I think it was Richard Brown, wasn't It was on the nick Look Daily.
He was expressing fears about switching back from at the round course to the straight mile a new Market.
Speaker 7But I don't know.
Speaker 6She's been on one of the Queen Mary a couple of years ago, didn't she.
Yeah, there's not much in it.
There's not much in it at all.
I did wonder if there might be a I mean, January is an obvious one from Ireland as well.
I'd be interested in it in a moment to find out what Billy might have thought about this at Seila for Donaica O'Brien another one that's totally unexposed.
I thought she maybe had excuses in the in the Irish guineas it didn't didn't seem to go right from her from the stalls for her, but she'd beaten to send prior to that in the.
Speaker 1Fas Billy over to you the Irish show in the film withouth.
Speaker 3Yeah, the couple of interesting contenders.
As Matt said, January obviously by when the Coronation Stakes finished towards she was second in the Phillies mind last year, she's she's going to be competitive again at this art of level.
Probably needs to improve a little bit to win a race of this nature.
That seal is definitely interesting.
I mean we didn't see her until early this year.
She won her first two starts and as Matt said, she beats her scene and a video of Jessica Harrington's called Barna Vara, Who's one two listed the races since in the ates sticks, so that farm was rock solid.
The Irish Guinea's just I don't know, take didn't work out for her, but clearly they think it a fair bit of her.
If she can go back to her at Taisy Farm, she's going to be interesting, but looks strictly on figure.
She has loads to find with the top two who are Cinderella's Dream and Crimson Advocate.
As Matt said, Cinderella's Dream is coming out just slightly ahead on time farm ratings.
But let's not forget she had to give Crimson Advocate three pounds of aska.
She won't have to do that here.
But the flip side of that is Crimson Advocate is probably more of a milor than Cinderella's Dream, so really interesting contest between the two of them.
It promised to be a fascinating rice.
Speaker 1I think this one.
Speaker 4Don't Forget's Dream was giving Crimson Advocate three pounds in the Duke of Cambridge steakes that that's something we should throw in.
And I know Rebel's romance salvaged a bit in the end, but when Cinderella's Dream ran, you just got the feeling things weren't going right for Charlie Appleby at rawal As Scott, I think Cinderella's Dream might be better suited to the straight track setup than Crimson advocate.
Remember how good she was over eighteen hundred meters in the Daily stakes the time before, so I think that'd be I think i'd been looking to Cinderella rather than Crimson in that rematch.
Speaker 1And there are others that We've got guineas winner and al Malko running Lion, who we know well in capable, high level of farm.
We'd love to see Elbertine for say you had been so far not a adulphing run of him running the Shadowell.
So it's fourth in the one thousand guineas on irveturn.
Didn't stay in the oaks next time?
What's on your raid?
I head for this filmouth.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think Elwardine's half interesting.
At twenty five to one, it's definitely worth another look.
But I agree with GC while Crimson advocate it's a bit of a guess up whether the ben suited her had asked.
I think it's a fact that back on the straight course that's going to suit Cinderetta's dream, and that performance across the way on the roly Miles was one of the performances of the season earlier on.
She was devastatingly good that day and a return to anything like that back on a straight track.
I think she's very much the one to beat already.
I'd be in the Cinderella's Dream Camps.
Speaker 1GC.
We've got the Duchess of Cambridge as well, two year old Phillies and Venetian's son for cal Burke.
She won on w at.
Carlisle went there with the reputation being his best two year old Philly wasn't overly impressive, got the job done.
One to ask Scott and they were very unlike Calbert.
The quotes afterwards that this is this is a serious, serious strikes or something that's working like they've never seen before.
Speaker 4From material Philly, I'm talking about working with older group racehorses rated one ten of thereabouts and kicking them out the way, which is striking.
It's seductive and she backed it up to a large extent at roll Ascat In the album it was more I think it was more a strength performance than an instant turn of foot, but she was very strong through the final four hundred.
That makes her the Philly with the best form credentials in the race and I haven't got the final deckshere.
Speaker 1I don't know whether you have, but I've got them here.
Speaker 4Yeah, it's composing running no right, Well, she was one.
I was quite prepared to take on Flowerhead.
Speaker 6I think.
Speaker 5Was she running the Queen Mary?
So you've got him, now got him?
Speaker 1It's cut up, hasn't it.
Speaker 4Yeah, she's going to be a shade of old and I think she probably deserves to be.
Doesn't have a penalty, remember having won a group race, so she's going to set the bar pretty high in that group two I think.
Speaker 2And when you said the felt like it was all going wrong for Charlie appleby that day until Rebels Forever.
But Carl Burke it was a nightmare.
He was absolutely having a shocker of a week until the Nichi's Son one and she drifted and then was back late.
And I used to work with Tony Bloom back in the day in the full sp Days the Lizard, and I spoke to him afterwards and he said, out of interest, what price is she for the Guineas?
And I said thirty three to one.
And he had a big intake of Breyer and he might have availed himself with some of that because they're going to train her as a guineas billy.
They think she's really really good.
She's a stunner as well.
Speaker 1Yeah she is, and she's I mean'd be fascinating to see that lone if we see on the track what they're saying, oh starts, we're seeing bits of it, but if it's transferring itself fully, it's.
Speaker 6A slightly odd group too, really, isn't it?
Because it's interesting?
Speaking of hearing from Carbert, could he sort of he was expected to wait a bit longer to get her back on track again, but I think he's got wind of what might be running.
Speaker 7And to have a two year old Group.
Speaker 6Two race at the July Festival with no Charlie appleby horse is fairly rare, I would say, But yeah, it does look hers and to lose I think with the small field in mind GC and like you say, she's a bit of a lengthen her and he'll just have to keep it simple and go nice and earlier and use that class.
Speaker 7I think he wouldn't want this to become tactical.
Speaker 6I know that Argentine Tango has got a she's racked up a bit of experience now, but she's got a fair bit of track now and she'd be possibly the danger in here.
Speaker 7But yeah, I really like Venetians song long term as well.
Speaker 1Let's look ahead to the big rate of the week.
It's the Albasti Equi World Dubai July Cup.
Billy interested that there were two horses supplemented by Godolphin on Monday and it's slightly well, one of them slightly changed the shape of the race.
We've got notable speech.
Last year's Guineas winner dropp into six pelongs for the first time in his career.
What do you make of that move, Billy.
Speaker 3Nash, He's totally changed the complexion of the race because he is time farm properated in the race hard but obviously his rating comes over a mile, so will he be able to cope with the drop back to six Looking at his pedigree, you'd say there's no reason why he shouldn't, and you know, he's a pretty keen going horse over a mile, so maybe it'll suit him.
But he's it's kind of a stab in the dark because we've had loads of horses have come from a Guineas to a juel A Cup down through the years.
Plenty of horses.
We were talking about this in the office during the week.
Plenty have been placed, go back as far as Chief Singer, Green Desert ajdall all placed and the Guineas went on to win a July Cup.
But I can't remember the last Guineas winner to try and win a July Cup.
Soviet started.
He won a French Guineas as a three year old, won a July Cup as a fire old, so it's kind of uncharted territory.
It's a very interesting move by them, and maybe they just feel that he's not up to competing with the top milers this year and they've decided to go a different route with him.
Either way, I think he adds a massive amount of the race and he's probably certainly on ratings he's probably the one to beat now.
So it's a really interesting move.
Speaker 1I think, screams the group one sky Bat City of the Ark Stakes on the final day of the Email Festival to me a little plug there and what do you It's definitely added a new dimension to it, hasn't it.
Speaker 2I really fancy more Thunder for the City of Your stake.
Stepping up to seven after he wins the Bumbery Cup over six.
It badly needed something like this to happen already because it wasn't particularly exciting or high quality July Cup.
And then suddenly, boom, notable speech comes in and just adds so much interest and spice and the race.
I couldn't back him with that price personally at all, because he's run okay on his two appearances over at mar this season.
Okay, they've been fine, is probably the best way of describe.
But surely this is going to be a shot for the system.
And it's been topical recently with horses dropping back in trip or going up in trip.
I mean, he's been trained to settle in mile races.
Suddenly he's going to have to go lickidly split from the start.
And the July Cup and those sort of prices he wouldn't be for me and the rest of them, I mean, just much more, muchless.
I'm going to throw a dart at at one of the bigger one, maybe two of the big prize possibly.
Speaker 1Well, got man, chuck your dart.
Speaker 2Araw of Bermuda's rock solid and she but she keeps finding a way to get beaten.
She's going to run our race and she'll be there or thereabouts when you watch back the race at role asking, haven't look at Iberian who I just think he is coming back to something like his best.
For me, he looked at once upon a time as if he could be very good and has been reinvented as a sprinter.
And in that race he's on the wrong side of the track with Thor of Bermuda and the foreign to the front who are areway and gone admittedly and were much the best.
But he's level pegging with Thor of Bermuda and she comes out and gives him an almighty bump and he's absolutely out on one wing.
And I thought he ran quite encouragingly.
And she's whatever she is, four than ninety two and Iberians a thirty three to one chance.
So there lots of places that much rather back a horse like him in a race like this where I think most of the sprinters are much more muchant.
Speaker 1You how would you play how do you?
I know it's the early days, but how would you be looking to play this?
Speaker 2You like?
Speaker 4Or in terms of a Beginea's soul, so a really good miler coming back in trip to do well into July kup The most recent example is without as Murphy was Rob Hornberry alcohol Free of course, who was a Coronation stakes went and trained largely as a miler until she dropped back.
She went to Royal Ascot for six and ran okay, and then she wondered July up.
First of all, I was surprised when notable speech was added to the field.
Speaker 5It sort of took me a little bit unawares.
And the more I think about it, the more I think it's a really good move.
Speaker 4The first point being he'd get banjod By field of gold in the Sussex Stakes, trying to give a horse like that way.
Speaker 5Secondly, we know it's there in black and white.
Speaker 4We've seen it so many times that the British and Irish printers are just not that flash.
We saw that when Lazat and Satano rev rolled into Royal Ascot and made Flora and Company just look second rate.
So a good group one horse and notable speech is a good group one horse.
We know that should be going really well.
He's by Dubawi, I think, isn't he Sireh of the moment.
Dubawi doesn't get many sprinters, but he got creative force.
He got space Blues as well.
It's a sort of sprinter miler, so he can get good twelve hundred meter horses.
The one caveat I'd have is I think they're going to have to change the game plan a little bit with notable speech.
We've got to know him as a sort of strong, traveling, hard pulling hold up horse.
Coming from way way back into July Cup is not a recipe for success.
I think they're going to have to let him stride and try and track the speed and use his class later on.
So I get it completely, and I think he's probably, if anything, a bit overpriced at four to one, purely because when I look.
Speaker 5Down the card, I do like flour of Bermuda, but she was just ahead of.
Speaker 4Night Eyes at Royal Ascot, symbol of Honor was all out at Haydock.
Any sharing has become an inconsistent horst and didn't shine in this range last year.
Whistle Jacket over to you billion a minute.
There's been plenty of money for him and he didn't get the rebb the green in the Commonwealth Cup.
Believing might have been in the wrong group at row Ascott, but she was still pretty well beaten.
And Big Magi always about the same horse as whistle Jacket based, won't we saw a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 5So but if a gamble on whistle Jacket, believe.
Speaker 3You get it and see where they're coming from.
I mean he was a little bit unlucky at Ascot.
Things didn't pan out the way they would have liked for him.
But when you look and he did win at the July Course last year, so I mean he won the July Stakes last year, so obviously he handles the track.
But although he won the pre morning last year, he's won from five and Group ones GC and I would think stepping up against older sprinters again this year, I could see him running well, but I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least one in there that was too good for him.
To be honest, you know, he's a big unit.
He's a pretty fast horse, but I don't know three year old sprintered up against older sprinters this time.
Speaker 2Of the year.
Speaker 3I don't think he's you know, when you look at his record and group ones, i'd be surprised if he was good enough to win it.
Speaker 4I haven't got the data, but the number of horses who are one and done when it comes to winning twelve hundred meters Group ones is very long.
When they win one, that tends to be races eliminating the Group one winners over that trip, you'd probably be.
Speaker 3On the right track.
Speaker 7What you about years winner?
Something like that?
Speaker 6Sorry, isn't it like seventy five years since we had really do back to back winners of this this race?
Speaker 7It's incredible.
Speaker 1Do you offered us breaking news?
Speaker 2Is it?
But American Affairs had to set back?
Sadly, I'm running the none thought and probably unlikely to get to the breeders cut, which is such a shame because.
Speaker 1It's a feel good story, isn't it.
I'm going to come back.
I'm going to finish with Matt on the July Cup.
But before that, believe you said they might be one to beat whistle Jacket.
What's the one that's going to beat it?
Then?
Speaker 3I'm I'm to be honest.
I've got a stick with a novable speech.
I think he's probably the class in the race, and I don't think dropping back to six one inconvenience and especially with a stiff finish league New Market, I'd stick with him.
Speaker 1And Matt I don't think you think there's anything that will be whistle Jacket in the July Cup.
Speaker 2No, I like.
Speaker 6I like the three roles in it.
Yet I know Notable Speech obviously has the class and the form.
In the book, Ed said a stab in the dark, I don't.
I don't like a stab in the dark at three to one in a group one race.
Personally whistle Jacket, he's one of those horses.
I think this has probably been his target all along, and I know he won on his comeback, but he won fairly narrowly from the stable my ads a match, but it was quite cozy.
It was his first run back and then he got beat by Baboosh.
But I think Ryan was odds on that day.
Ryan will reported that he he banged his head or something.
He got very upset before the race.
I don't think we quite saw the best of him there.
And then he finished with running petrol in the tank.
In the Commonwealth Cup.
I think he can really upgrade that form and he was running on really well.
He was only beaten four and a bit Lents in six then the other one from the race the Commonwealth Cup is sort of my old mate Big Mojo.
I think there's definitely room for maneuver with him.
There's still sort of improvement to come.
He was a very good two year old, but the way that he won an Ascot on his comeback, I thought this was a horse that was really ready to kick on again and mix with the best around.
He went to Haydock and ran a perfectly respectable race in the Sandy Lane, and then again he had absolutely nowhere to go under Holly Doyle in the Commonwealth Cup.
So there are two horses that are lining up here on the back of efforts at Royal Ascot that you can probably strike a line through.
And I just think that maybe sort of right now in the midsummer we're going to see the best of those two horses.
Whistlejacket, as you say, he'd be top of my short this day.
But the price is tightening up and seventy one is possibly boordline for me.
Speaker 1Now we've got a real race for this bet.
At the minute, it looks like I'm going to have a pop ahead to head Billy in the bed three sixty five.
The two stacks I don't know grabbed all to the Ballytal Compute on Monday and put him on next to Italy so early, I mean it's unheard of.
But then showing their hand it's Italy versus Sabbath Desert, ballydyl Viga, Dolphin and two hugely promising colts.
Speaker 3Billy Ash not sure this is going to be a head to head already.
I think Italy could be the real deal.
This horse, I really really liked him at Leopardstone.
He was very green that he still won quite readily and obviously beat the Secret Adversary went on to finish second in the chescham so the farmer's rock solid.
They seem to have taken the city of tri Root with this fellow that was talks about keeping him for the Tyreross in Ireland.
They've decided to send them here.
By the looks of things, I think there's just loads of potential from this horse already, and I'd be very surprised.
Even though Sabbath Desert was unpressed the first time out and is another horse that is open to bags of improvement.
I think I'd be surprised if it only got beaten here.
I'm really looking forward to seeing this horse again and.
Speaker 5The same from that Leopardstown race.
Speaker 4Billy the Secret Adversary polished the form in the Chessim Stakes, didn't he big time?
Speaker 3Yeah, big time did so.
Yeah, it looks looks rap solid.
He looked like a smashing court on the day and I think he can only improve.
So he's going to take an after the beating.
Speaker 1But my offering hope to the whole team.
It's a home game this for Sabath Desert, isn't it.
It's coming to his coming to his turf.
Speaker 6Billy took the words out, I'm not sure he's a head to head, Dave.
I can't see saba Desert beaten in this.
Speaker 1That's brilliant, weird, that's what we're doing.
Speaker 6I mean, all I'd say is I think he's a hell of a lot better than the bare form of what he showed first time out of Sandown.
I think this horse is going to be a lot better in a better race with a pace to chase.
The just the form hasn't worked out.
That's the bottom line.
And you could say that this horse is is going to be nowhere nearestly, but I think we're looking at one with real potential.
He's got the fantastic pedigree.
He's going to forty seven first time out.
Speaker 7Yeah, I think.
I think he's a proper player.
He's going to put up a fight, and the.
Speaker 4Pedigree of this race tells you that you often see a real elite horse if you're looking back for Apple Beean, master of the Seas Native Trail, and of course City of Troy announced himself for Aiden a couple of years ago, so this should be about it.
Speaker 2Yeah.
Speaker 6Everything we we know about that yard and about that race and this race the first time out of Sandown, this suggests he's the best two year old after he's got as well, and.
Speaker 1It's good as well.
There's pattern farm represented, isn't it That we'll get some substance.
They're what they're racing against with.
I know ficial matters of ninety seven, ninety five, et cetera, but that there is ways to measure them here in this superlitous age, which is great.
Does excite you add potential big head to head on exposed stars, Yeah.
Speaker 2Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.
The powerhouse is showing head to head though if you believe the hype, Italy is clearly very very good and it's amazing, isn't it.
I was just looking at it in the space of a couple of hours audience.
It's likely slow key start for Super Saturday.
Then suddenly fang you go Summer Miles, City Walls, Bumbery Cup, John Smith's Cup, Betterley six five miles, Silver Cup, Superlative July Cup.
I mean, Bonkers are absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 1At the same time we need to talk about the Summer Mile, the Cornish Archards they side them or is that a holiday on the side of Kers?
What I mean that it's that vintage crop of older milers that we've got running around at the minute.
But this, this is a fascinating race.
We've got three Royal Ascot where we've got hard time in there.
My Cloud never so brave last year's win the Kuldwir, I means.
But in terms of that Summer Mile, it's as good as you get, isn't it.
Speaker 2It's really good.
It's really good.
I hope Prog runs well because he's such a good story for Dylan Kuna and the team.
My Cloud's been backed, hasn't he.
He's a seventh to too short of one chance now he's the sort of trendy one I suppose, as he is the group horse in handicapped company at Royal Ascododward's rock solid.
But Heartum is such a dude of a horse, isn't he.
I think it'd be really difficult to be here dropping back to a mile which had things probably is best trip, but he never seems to get the credit he deserves.
Heart End.
I think it'll be it'll be really really difficult to beat in the summer mile, and we'll be because he's hard, and he'll be a backable price as well.
I could see him going off at.
Speaker 1Three to one, and because jac there's two on an upward curve coming in against him.
In My Cloud never said we don't know where they're sailing.
Speaker 5It's what it's certainly the race that's Never So Brave.
Speaker 4One was a draw race, and My Cloud wasn't badly drawn against the rail in the Hunt Cup either, but I thought Never So Brave was terrifically impressive.
Now it's a different dynamic this weekend.
He's going from big field handicap into a condition's race, a bit more tactical, but he should not be underestimated.
He's got a time form rating of one hundred and twenty two now, Dave Never So Brave and that that's that's going to make him a force in a race like this surely, and that.
Speaker 1Does really but just to put that into bit a one two to two figure for race like the Summer mar We'll put him back in the next, wouldn't it.
Speaker 3Absolutely he's top rated with us, just just edges heart and so on.
Adjust the ratings is a pound above heartum, and my Cloud has a little bit of find on his eight pounds below.
Never saw Brave, but he does have a p on his rating.
I mean strictly on the handicap.
I never saw Brave one off one hundred and five at the ride meeting mic cloude one off ninety five, So even on that you'd say Mike Cloud has a little bit defined.
Speaker 5I must have been Billy as well.
Didn't he a brave put spaces in them as well?
Speaker 2He did?
Speaker 3Yeah, I was very impressed in my Cloud the way he traveled through the race.
I think he's definitely a pattern maker horse in the making.
I don't have a strong opinion on this list, but it's one I'm really looking forward to him.
Speaker 1Must have really really interesting with Neil Matt It's not the bay would us they land on your radar as you're part of him through Super Saturday to find your selections.
But it would be a verse I'm sure you'd take an interest in.
Speaker 7Yeah, very much so.
Speaker 6It was about that time at the booking and Palace at six ten on the Thursday of our Alaska I just sat.
I had my head in my hands by think, looking at these handicaps, thinking they're all being one by three top.
Speaker 7Favorites running off one hundred and five.
I mean that was a That was a group, great group horse performance, wasn't it.
Speaker 4I thought?
Speaker 7Never so brave.
Speaker 6I think he's absolutely entitled to a shot at the I see he was kicked into touch by Hartuman last year's that have been the Jersey Stakes.
He's an improved horse now and probably nothing to do with the switch from Michael Staff to Andrew Bold.
Speaker 5Will he definitely get a mile?
Speaker 6Do you think, well, yeah, it's the next test for him.
I don't see why not in the back of the Royal Ascott victory.
But we'll see on Saturday.
Speaker 4When you look at a program, said, jockeys and their agents must spend a hell of a long while deciding which way to jump.
Unless you've got a you know, a retaining you have to go somewhere.
There are a few jockeys this weekend who will have to give up really good rides, and a few jockeys who don't normally get those rides waiting to pounds for them.
Speaker 1Niall Hannerty and his agent colleagues are being clover.
There's loads of rides, really good rides go Inspere.
We need to talk a couple of big betting lacers as well.
It's the Bumper Cup at New Market, It's the John Smith's Cup at your We've got one favorite in both.
We're told before the decks we've got more thunders five to two for the Bundery Cup.
Archives going for hat trick potentially for chiefly Park and William Hager's Arabian Force for the same trainer towards head of the market.
The John Smith's Cup, the competitive You've just mentioned that role Ascott, the crew rolls to the top.
Those towards ahead of the market came out.
But what have you got early?
I know it's early for you on your radar for these handicaps.
Speaker 6Itet a lot of work to be done yet, Dave, between now and the Friday Valley bet.
But yeah, John Smith's Cup, it does look absolutely fantastic.
I think this is a muskwatch race, isn't it.
You're always on the lookout for something that's potentially a bit more than a handicapper.
Obviously in this field it leaps off the page, but Defiance is right in there in that bracket.
Speaker 7I would say he was tried at group level last year.
Speaker 6It didn't quite work out, but he's been gelded, he's comeback, and that that promising comeback run at EPSOM that that struck me as a potentially very handicapped horse.
Speaker 7Off ninety nine.
Speaker 6It was the tenth file a handicap behind Richer for his acurial secret.
I think the form's already worked out reasonably well.
I think, yeah, he's got loads of potential.
The Bumbery Cup really tricky.
I'm not sure where the Phillies go, where Kensington Palace runs.
I know she's got a couple of entries, but at the top of the Bumbery Cup betting, we've got three horses that are officially ahead of the handicapper, and it's going to be quite a hard one to chisel something out at the big price to upset those three if they're all declared but misinformation.
Speaker 7She carries the six pound penalty for the Kensington Palace win.
Speaker 6She's due to go up six, so she's not technically ahead of the handicapper, but I did think she absolutely dotted up as well in another Royal handicap Royal Basket Handicap, and she's not going to be inconvenienced at all by dropping back to seven furlongs from the mile.
So it's sort of two there on the shortlist, but we'll have to see how the final decks dust down.
Speaker 4More Thunders five to two favorite for the bum Break Cup, and you know, in theory seven furlong should suit him extremely well, but that flat spot that cost him the Woking Gum could be problematic again, couldn't it on those undulations.
It's something to bear in mind at such a short price, if he gets a little bit out of rhythm on those up and down up and downs of the July course, he could leave himself in a tricky position again.
Speaker 1And JC the fascinating mace.
Is it one that you will leave late?
Speaker 2Do you do?
Speaker 4Yeah?
I have time to delve into these two big handicaps.
A Kadian Thunder's another we should mention for the Bumbery Cup.
He ran a streamer, yes, well drawn behind Never So Brave in that Buckingham Palace race, and David Omara has got him in tremendous for.
Speaker 1Billieve we're not in an agreement to that.
Speaker 3You know, well, I think like Never So Brave.
Obviously it's going to run a half an hour before the one break up Alaska, so it'll be interest to see how he gets on.
But yeah, Akadi and Thunder ran a Crackers his rock Salid and these big thing handicaps and you know who could do on Mars producing urses for these races, so I'd certainly could see him running.
Well.
Look, More Thunder has a very obvious chance.
You don't need me to tell you that he could be the class heart of the race.
But I think if you're looking for a rock slid option, then Acadian Thunder is probably the.
Speaker 1Harsest to go with.
And the last word to you, I had no word from Debenehm.
I'm afraid are you going to stick with the original.
Speaker 2I've had a bet in both those race already.
I'm not waiting, I must admit, because I'll tell you why.
I think More Thunder will go off much shorter.
I really do.
I think he's I think he's much the best I know.
He does have that slight flat spot, but I alsought that he was unlucky last time.
I just think he's how can you go much shorter than five to two in a bum break cup?
So I think I think he'll go very short on Saturday and in the John Smith Cup already I'm not sure after this is going to run.
So I've gambled that Haggis might go elsewhere and might keep him to his age group.
He's got another entry, and I've fact what's the king power horse called Fox?
Which are the Foxes?
Is it box Legacy?
I backed each way at twelve to one in the john Smith's Cap in the whole that this goes elsewhere, and he's got a big one in in this horse.
I think was I catching at new Market then unlucky at Ascot and Building could not be in better form in the minute.
Speaker 4And don't forget if you are going to York this weekend, it's going to be baking, going to be cracking the flags.
Now you don't have to wear a jacket.
You can wear shorts, but you must have a college shirt with a tie on as well.
So there are some very intriguing mixed message.
It's coming out of York over this heat wave.
Speaker 2You do see some belt What the hell we like don't we down at new Market?
Speaker 1Well whatever debenm send, That's what I'll be wearing that I'm not going to new Market.
I won't.
I won't be there.
No one weekend, brilliant weekend, loads of quality ating to get stuck into and to look forward to.
They're the early thoughts of Ed, Billy, GC and Matt.
Thank you for listening and will be back looking ahead to the King George at Ascot and the Katar Goodwood Festival