Welcome to the solid verbal hull.

For me, I'm a man, I'm forty.

I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy.

You want to be happy for a day?

Edith state?

Is that whoo whoom?

And then and tie Dan Rivers see welcome back this show, my good friend.

As we do often on our weekly bonus episodes out at verbollers dot com, I feel it will be appropriate to start off today's episode by asking you about your health?

Uh, what is your health status?

Mine?

Have you recovered fully from whatever is going on with you and your voice and your just general energy level?

Are we good?

We?

I think we're good.

So I did go to the doctor.

They took a chest X ray just out of an abundance of caution, and I think I told you this.

What I what came back was, Uh, they were able to confirm that I've got that dog me time, I've got that dog me.

I'm okay.

I you know, I'm shooting stuff up my nose, that's legaling over the counter.

I'm doing everything I can.

I'm drinking tea and drinking soup broth.

I'm doing it.

I'm fine.

I'm good.

Well, look you better get yourself in tip top shape because you're flying to my neck of the woods.

A little later on in the week, we're going up to the Penn State Orgon game.

We're gonna preview the Penn State Orgon game on today's episode.

By the way, I would ask folks out there, if you're gonna be at the Penn State Oregon game, give us a holler, Soliverble at gmail dot com.

We'll do our best to stop by your tailgate.

Send us a pen.

Yeah, say hello, right, we want to say hello.

I want to meet the forboler hood.

We will be up there.

I can see no reason why we wouldn't stop by to say hello if schedule permits, So again, give us a Hollosolverble at gmail dot com.

On today's episode, some more of our takeaways from week four, some big previews for week five.

We're going to talk about some breaking news.

We're going to play a little game.

We got a lot in store for you today on this year Tuesday episode, my good friend, I am ready to go.

I'm excited for this, all.

Right, roll our Carrie Underwood theme song.

No, we still know we can't afford the carry Underwood theme song.

I think we can we can establish an account and maybe we can raise enough funds for like a syllable.

Wait, wait, it's about it.

Yeah, we can do the eight bit version that the algorithms don't detect.

Yeah, absolutely there, It is all right.

So this is our week five look ahead, et cetera.

Show that is right.

Verballers dot com is where you can go to further support what we do.

I'll talk about what you can do at verballers dot com in just a hot minute.

If you're not interested in that great no big deal, hit fall, hit, subscribe wherever you can leave a comment, wherever you can.

All that stuff helps.

Let's get to our news.

Let's Dan Rubenstein Steve Angeli torre's achilles.

That's a weird tone today.

Yes, he did tear his achilles.

We feel very bad and had a great performance until he went down, obviously in the Clemson matchup and was looking like he was going to be a spark for Syracuse's offense.

Hope he heals up quickly and comes back even stronger.

I was so bummed out about this.

I was so bummed out about this.

I was pumped that he landed on his feet at Syracuse.

I was pumped that he was off to a really good start with Fran Brown.

And obviously what we saw before he got hurt in the Clemson game was pretty exciting.

I guess if you're a Syracuse fan, if you root for Steve Angelly, like he looked really, really good, and he's looked good this year.

It seems as if his confidence had grown.

This is a huge bomber man, an absolutely huge bummer.

We're going to see Ricky Collins now.

It's probably not the end for Steve Angelly.

He can apply for a medical red shirt.

He's got a couple of years of eligibility left.

But yeah, I didn't mean to take a weird tone there at the top, But you're good.

You're good trying to rip the band aid off, and that's a bummer.

It's a buying area down in the manner that he did.

Yeah, and on a very exciting day, right when it was his turn to beat Clemson.

Right, We've all these quarterbacks in the acc taking turns and that was like his moment to shine to beat Clemson and he goes down.

Of course, Ricky Collins helped to finish the job.

But yeah, it seemed that it was going to be a fun year for Steve Angeli in the Syracuse offense and also saw it.

By the way, fran Brown and Syracuse fine twenty five grand for faking injuries against.

They are as a separate but I guess unrelated point.

Syracuse is fined twenty five grand for faking injuries during their win over Clemson.

The ACC called out a specific play with about nine and a half left to play.

They said two Syracuse players faked injuries.

They did not mention the guys by name, but they did say that the conference or excuse me, that the tactic per the Conference was in violation of rule three v three to six B, which calls feigning injuries quote unethical and contrary to the spirit of the rules.

I believe.

We have also seen other instances this season where Syracuse, notably that Tennessee game where some Syracuse guys went down and they were two trying to go down at the same time, one realizing the better of it and then deciding not to.

But this is not, I guess, a new thing.

If you followed Syracuse so far this season.

Yeah, fran Brown has a lot to say about a lot of topics, but not afraid to sort of have his players go down as well.

It doesn't need to be pretty.

What's your number one rule?

It just has to work.

It just has to work.

It has to work.

Speaking of rules, did you see what went down in the SEC?

I did.

Indeed, Yeah, we had a ruling on the Oklahoma touchdown trick play attempt with Isaac Setania faking a substitution and scoring.

That is correct.

We had some people right into us in the immediate aftermath of recap episode on Saturday night slash Sunday morning, depending where you're at.

Yes, there was a touchdown pass to a wide open Isaiah Satana early on in that Auburn Oklahoma game.

He was wide open.

I mean we could have made that throw.

That's how open this guy was.

And there was some talk in the moment Matt Austin they brought him in Rules Analyst DESPN giving some voice to the fact that I'm not so sure about this.

Well, yeah, we did get a ruling from the SEC per NCAA Football Rule nine too, Article two.

It is labeled unfair tactics.

The official quote from the rule book is quote no simulated replacements or substitutions maybe used to confuse opponents.

No tactics associated with substitutes or the substitution process maybe used to confuse opponents.

This includes any hideout tactic with or without a substitution.

That is a mouthful, Dan, But what they are saying is it should have been a fifteen yard on sportsman like penalty.

You know, Oklahoma's new to this kind of thing in this conference.

I know it's an NCAA rule, but they're learning and it worked.

It worked then, So the only thing.

Is it's gotta work, right, just gotta work.

I'm not so certain given the performance of Auburn on offense that this was a winning Saturday for the Tigers regardless, but you shouldn't have to to lose in part because of a poorly interpreted rule.

So all right, there we have it.

Also in the SEC, I am looking at a graphic here from our friends over at on three Sports.

The SEC has announced annual opponents for the next four years.

You may recall that the SEC very quickly ratified this plan to go to nine conference schemes shortly after the College Football Playoff Committee announced that it would be taking more into account strength of schedule, strength of record, whatever the metric is that they're going to invent right right.

There is no way in this forum, in this audio forum, anyway that I can properly describe what all these matchups look like without everybody's ears bleeding.

Maybe you can pop up a graphic on the video.

I don't know if that's something you're into or not, but either way, either way, they have announced for the next four seasons the three annual opponents for each of these sixteen teams.

Let me ask you, because I know you went through this in a little bit more detail.

Yeah, are there any situations or are there any matchups or non matchups that jump out to you based on what we see here?

Yeah?

I mean Lsubama.

If you remember, Nick Saban was not a fan of how Alabama's annual rotations were looking when scheduling was going to be changed with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, and so now Alabama, instead of having LSU guaranteed annually, has Mississippi State guaranteed annually, on top of Auburn and Tennessee, which of course seem like the most non negotiables, and so obviously Lsubama has been held in high esteem as an annual November matchup.

These past, I don't know, fifteen twenty years, and so doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

It just means it's not gonna happen annually.

So it'll happen every other year, you know, twice every four years, with home away splits being equal.

Florida Tennessee struck me as a matchup that it's going to be new that we don't have that every year.

Tennessee has Bama, Kentucky Vanderbilt.

Florida has Georgia, South Carolina Kentucky, so we have that.

Yeah, we're not going to list everything, but your traditional year end rivalries all seem to be intact.

Obviously, the SEC is trying to pay mine that schools like Florida have Florida State and Georgia have Georgia Tech, and so they're figuring out all the scheduling with that.

But by and large, other than those that seems fine to me.

Texas and Texas A and M are locked in, which is extremely important to me personally.

Yeah, so I don't know the like the third most important one of these matchups is the one that seems to be a little bit more variable.

Let us know again in the comments in the email inbox if you have any thoughts on this.

But like I said, there are far too many matchups here, far too many situations to read off to list off without losing people's interests.

So we will put this in places where you can go and find it and react to it accordingly, but obviously welcome your input on what you see.

If obviously you're an SEC fan, you have thoughts, you know how to weigh in the final note here in the news section, And I do need to make sure that I have the proper tone for.

This one, while you're good.

Sean Clark, former coach at app State, unexpectedly passed away.

We just got news of this shortly before we hit record.

Apparently two weeks ago Sean experienced what is being labeled here as a medical emergency and unexpectedly passed away at the age of fifth which is absolutely crazy to wake up and wake up and see that news.

He was, I guess the UCF of assistant yep, formerly you know, the app State coach.

App State decided to go a different direction after last year.

But heartbreaking news.

Thoughts to everybody out there who knew the coach reading nothing but glowing things about you know what app State meant to him, the impact that he had on the program and the people around him.

Just really sad stuff.

So condolences to his friends and family.

Yeah, horrible news.

Obviously leaves behind the family.

And I saw Bill Belichick actually opened up his presser.

I think I don't know if it was the postgame press or I apologize for not having that detail, but Bill Belichick was very kind to mention he was thinking of Sean Clark when this was all unfolding.

Obviously, UCF played against North Carolina last week.

So horrible, horrible stuff, and you know, nothing we'd like to see ever in this now ruler.

So it's a it's a small college football family, so hoping and thinking for the best.

Absolutely brutal stuff.

With that sort of note, let's awkwardly transition to the ap pole, the Verballer top twelve pole.

We do have a new ap pole.

We have a new Verboler top twelve pole as well.

We will start with the Verballer Top twelve.

Course, it's the most accurate poll in all of college football polling.

I also sent out a few guest ballots to our friends around the college football media space, just to get a little bit more diversity of thought in this thing for week five being so it is such a huge week.

Yes, here's the way this shook out.

Number one Ohio State, number two Miami.

That mirrors exactly what we see in the AP pole.

After that, though, we start to see some disparities in our poll.

We've got Oregon three, Georgia four, Penn State five, the state all the way up to six, LSU at seven, Oklahoma at eight.

Indiana makes a huge jump all the way up into the top twelve at number nine.

Texas Tech also makes a pretty big jump up into the top ten.

We've got Texas A and M at eleven.

We've got Georgia Tech at twelve.

In terms of disparities, the AP pole had LSU up at four.

Obviously, our poll was a little bit further down on them at number seven.

Your Oregon Ducks at six in the AP pole.

Oarver ballers are much higher on the ducks.

Texas is at number ten in the AP pole.

They're nowhere to be found in the for baller top twelve.

They would have been fourteenth or fifteenth.

I believe in our poll Indiana was not ranked as highly in the AP pole.

They are at eleven.

We had them at nine.

Texas Tech in a similar situation, they were twelve in the AP as I said ten in hours, and George Tech is sixteen in the AP and obviously number twelve in hours.

I saw that Notre Dame moved up a few spots.

Dan, I'm sure you have thoughts on that, but in general, your reaction to all of the polls that we saw drop yesterday slash early this morning.

Yeah.

So with regard to the verbaler pole, I think Oregon's probably too high in this moment, just because I like to reward teams based on who they've played, and Oregon having played both of the OSUS on their schedule this year in Oregon State, in Oklahoma State and Northwestern, they've looked terrific.

But I don't know how much you can say, like, Okay, this is a top three, four or five team in the country based on those performances.

I would have Penn State lower just because they've looked fine, but against no teams.

I don't like saying like, oh, Okay, you deserve to be in the top five six after four weeks when you've played nobody.

They have done a very poor job of scheduling early on to entertain anybody, So I don't like to reward that.

If you want to put them in a preseason poll pretty high, because that's your snapshot of who you think they are big picture, that's fine.

But as soon as teams start coming through against better quality opponents, I would have them jump over the teams that don't have much on their schedule and obasually did not schedule a Power Conference team in September.

Yeah, I had Penn State at eight in mind time about eight.

They're a top ten team, but I still think both the AP and the final results of the Verbowler Pole were a little higher on Penn State.

Now, if they win against Oregon.

Sure, we have preached the virtues of having a limber poll, Dan as you know that's true.

We could very easily bump Penn State all the way the hell up if we want to.

Right.

This thing can have a lot of variability from from week to week.

Penn State was one that jumped out to me.

I would say, with respect to both poles, I feel like Miszoo, I feel like USC.

I feel like TCU are all too low.

They're all too low.

Now this is not to say that any of those should be in the top twelve.

But just looking through where the verballers where the AP would have ranked all three of those teams, right, they are like fringe top twenty teams Right now.

TCU is twenty one in our poll.

USC is twentieth in our poll.

Miszoo is eighteenth in our poll.

It's not all that different if you look over on the AP side of things as well.

These are teams that I think have a lot of upward mobility.

I think all are outstanding sides, and I think they have been proving it gradually over the course of the season.

TCU has an opportunity this week, I think, to take a pretty big jump up.

We will talk about their game momentarily.

So clearly this is tracking with what I think you said a week ago, which is these are teams that you should not be sleeping on.

I agree the thing I want to reward early on beyond just like how you schedule the non conference, I just feel like we learn more about a team based on how they perform against a quality team on the road.

Specifically, so when I look across like what LSU did at Clemson, regardless of where Clemson is now, in our hearts and minds, doing that in week one is clearly impressive, clearly impressive.

So I understand why LSU is as high as they are, even though I don't know if I believe in them full time as a top five team just because of where the offense is and needs to grow into.

But I have no choice but to respect that.

I have no choice but to respect what Georgia did at Tennessee.

When I look at like what Texas A and M did at Notre Dame, whatever Notre Dame's defense is going to be, that is, I think that is indicative of just a stealingess in Texas A and M that if you want to have them at seven, if you ought to have them at six, I'm okay with it.

Conversely, like I think I like Ole Miss a good deal, and we're going to talk about their matchup against LSU in a little while, but like they didn't really separate from Kentucky in all that interesting a way.

Now they're in the top twelve, top thirteen, and also what Texas Tech did at Utah, So on one hand, you're like, well, they didn't schedule anybody, and that's kind of cowardly and there are a lot of cowardly teams here, but going to Utah and doing what they did and finishing off the utes in that fourth quarter, I have no choice but have immense respect for that what Vanderbilt did.

I'd have Vanderbilt a little bit higher here based on what they've done on the road so early on the road testiness.

Don't look up road testing now.

It is something that I'm just gonna you know, I'm going to vote with.

So yeah, that's where I stand right now, because I do think we should be a lot more fluid with these kinds of poles.

I agree.

By the way, if you are interested in Vandy, as a lot of people are who have written too us, many of whom are already part of the ball community, you and I put together or rather lengthy Vandy Deep Dive as part of the bonus episode that we dropped on the Patreon feed last Thursday.

We did Vandy as well as Georgia Tech.

Yes, so if you're interested in checking that out, you can go on out and sign out, sign up, excuse me, have for ballers dot com, as you know, for ballers dot com is where you can go to vote in this poll.

We dropped this poll bright and early every Sunday morning.

We have refined our effort here.

Previously I would only put thirty teams to pick from, but in order to be inclusive and make sure that everybody is counted, you now have a list of one hundred and thirty six teams every week.

To go through.

It's organized in a way hopefully that makes it a little bit easier to pick again.

For ballers dot com is where you can go if you want to vote in that every Sunday morning.

Do you have any bedrock?

This is how I think this.

I know you're not as fluid a believer in the ape pole early on, you just have mixed on having early polls and preseason polls.

But is there anything that you're like that team's not better than that team?

Well, I think for me, it's been a gradual evolution with respect to my own formula for how I treat this.

And I have had a few instances already where I've ranked like Alabama head of Florida State, which shouldn't be because Florida State beat them rather handily.

Right granted week one, Granted teams change seasons are living, breathing things.

But for me, it has definitely already been a bit of a progression from I think early season expectations and what I thought of schools like Alabama, just using them as an example, to where we are now as we enter week five.

Now we have a body of work, we have a feeling, we have a vibe.

We can at least look at some trends for where we think teams are headed.

We now slowly have a little bit more information, and I'm seeing by the way my own personal formula the verballerhood and how it ranks teams, the AP and how it ranks teams.

Yeah, if you take this week as an example, we're starting to see almost a little bit of a slow merge.

I can only assume that the AP is merging its thought process with that of our ballers.

Of course, of course.

But we're seeing I think a little bit less disparity between one and the other, and that to me is indicative of hey, we've got more to go on.

Now, We've got more to go on.

Now.

I tend to look at a team on my rewatch, just go buy the eye test.

Who do I like?

Who do I think is better?

If I put A against B would A win would b win.

Yeah, And so that's where I get myself into trouble sometimes trying to talk this out and logic this out, because I do have situations.

Now I didn't this week on my poll, but I have in the past where again, just as an example, I'll put Alabama in front of Florida State.

I back myself into a corner with my kind of logic here, but try to get away from that as best I can.

I am trying to grow with this as best I can.

Right now.

I think this poll did a pretty good job of articulating where I am at.

Hey, well, thank god we've got one and two Notre Dame with a season defining win over Perdue in the top twenty five.

Still, so we got that.

At least.

You just got to believe, Dan, I guess so you you're a big Chris Ash believer.

In this moment, God sign me of the Church of Chris Ash.

I can't believe.

I can't believe they didn't fire him yet, get rid of them, Get rid.

Of them, big believer.

Yeah.

Speaking of which, Dan.

Yes, oh man.

To believe in yourself, to believe in one another man, that's that's fundamental to being alive fundamental to being alive.

Dan, you just gotta believe, baby, Yeah, you just gotta believe out there.

Oh you're holding it up.

Look at you believe in something.

Don't care what it is.

Believe in something.

Otherwise, what's the point?

Right?

I agree, I fully agree.

I believe in ty Hill.

That's all I can tell you, Dan.

The question is do we believe in these five teams?

Though?

Got five teams in front of me today.

We kicked around maybe doing a hot seat segment here?

Do we believe in coaches?

Do we not believe in coaches?

But they're all in the hot seat, which tells you that we kind of don't believe in them.

I want to talk about teams, Dog, Okay, Dog, let's talk about some teams.

Have you seen enough to truly, deeply, madly believe in Florida State at this point, Dan Rybstein.

I have not seen enough.

No, I have not seen enough.

I think the win against Alabama was great, is great.

Since then it's went East Texas, A and M and Kent State terrific.

They behaved like a top team should against those teams.

I can't unsee what I saw last season from Florida State.

I think I like Tom Castelano's Big Tom, Big Tom Callahan, Big Tom Callahan.

I'm just not in on Florida State yet.

The underlying numbers are very good for the most part, but mean nothing because it sort of takes two to tango as well.

In that Florida State Bama game, it wasn't just Florida State demoralizing Alabama.

It was internal with Alabama with the way that they played, the manner in which they gave or didn't give effort, like there was something inside Alabama that needed fixing, and Florida State took advantage like a really good team.

But I am not swayed fully to the side of Florida State is back.

They are a top ten team, They're going to behave as such all season long, and double digit wins is a reasonable expectations all of the sudden.

So no, I am not a believer in Florida State yet.

There's a belief thing going on with their points spread on Friday night, by the way, there is so they play Virginia.

They're on the road at Virginia on Friday night.

I don't understand this line at all.

It's an interesting line.

Tie and generally that's when you steer into it.

But Virginia at home is only a six and a half point dog.

It is a look ahead spot for Florida State because they've got the big home game coming up in Week six against Miami, which would be enormous.

That'll be the game of the week.

You were assuming it would be a bigger line.

You were assuming would be like nine and a half points for Florida State.

Oh yeah, with how much steams on Florida State.

Maybe this is belief in Virginia.

Maybe that's what Vegas is telling us here, because Virginia's look pretty good, and hell, if you look at what Virginia's got in front of him, they could randomly end up eight and four, nine and three and that would not be a stretch.

The roster is definitely better than where it was last season when they beat Tommy Castellanos at Boston College.

Yeah, I believe in Florida State.

I do.

I think the manner in which they have started their season has been enough to boot up the belief factor once more, and they're clearly doing things differently.

They are clearly trying to take advantage of Gus Melzan and his knowledge of offenses and in this case Tom Callahan slash Castellanos.

Yeah, I believe in Florida State one game, it's all tuck.

Game one, the least important game of the season.

It's all tuck.

It's all took man.

Okay, But they've looked really good.

You know, they've looked really good.

They have.

I understand that they have not necessarily played the toughest of competition.

That certainly is a valid point.

But I would just add, they are killing teams.

Great, They're gonna win the MAC.

They are just membering teams.

Were you the type of person when you would see a young lady from like across a lecture hall or a bar, restaurant or somebody, are.

Like, one day, I'm gonna marry that girl.

Just because you happen to catch her gaze.

No, one day, Because I mean, it's one game, and it's a great game to set a tone.

But you got a little see a little bit more from a team who went to and ten.

That's all.

Since we're talking about Florida State, let's talk about Miami.

Let's so these two play each other week six.

Clearly it's going to be one of the games that we have to preview in advance.

It's going to be huge.

Have we seen enough at disjuncture to believe in Miami?

Yes, I think so.

I agree, it's just because of the manner and we have more data based on teams that they've played in that they've played a horrific Notre Dame team and Florida now and they've performed in a way where I'm not positive there anywhere near a finished product, which is a good thing for Miami hopefully, but their starting point of being better than everybody on their schedule, I believe along the lines, given the experience, given where they are health wise right now.

I don't know how you can look at this Miami team and say, like, get ready for eight and four, just because it's really hard to go eight and four in the ACC when you have crisp quarterback play and a really good set of lines.

It's just very difficult to be that bad and give away those types of games when you're going to have that kind of trench advantage.

So yeah, I'm a believer.

I'm a believer so far, but I do think the hump that they need to get.

Over pit your pit panthers.

Well we can laugh about that, but they are on the road at pitt to close out the same they are, And I think the broader point is they're also on the road next week against Florida State.

They've got a road tilt at the beginning of November against SMU.

I don't necessarily think that Virginia Tech's going to put up much of a fight when they play later in the year.

But stranger things have happened in Lane Stadium.

We saw this Miami team, a very very good Miami team last year, crumble down the stretch in some key road spots.

That's Jamie Wireless, baby.

Everybody does.

This is not wrong, but we need to see how they look away from home.

I agree, so at far it's been Notre Dame.

They look good.

I thought for the most part against Notre Dame, save for maybe the last quarter and a half.

Clearly what they did against Florida this past week, the defense came to play USF the way they took apart USF.

I think that will go down as a much better win than many people are giving you credit for right now.

Is it worrisome that Miami only scored twenty seven against Notre Dame After saying Notre Dame.

Subsequently, it's worrying that Notre Dame was able to claw their way back into that game.

And it's worrying because.

I think we think the Notre Dame offense is good, right, I.

Think Notre Dame offense is outstanding, and I think Cvia Carr is actually the real deal and very very okay cool.

But I worry about Mario mode.

They did it again against Florida.

They went super conservative.

For a hot minute, it felt like Florida might find a way back into that thing.

They didn't, right, But there will be ample opportunities the rest of the way, especially because I think Miami's better than most of these teams on the schedule, maybe with the exception of Florida State, depending how you feel about the Noles, but everybody else here they should be better.

And so the question is can they get over that hump?

Can they really make me believe that they're not going to give away a game late in a stupid fashion because they go ultra conservative.

That's the next remaining hurdle.

If you want me to be hook Line and Sinker a true believer in the Canes, But for right now, based on what we're seeing it's hard not to believe they've looked really good.

Ten wins would.

Be a failure ish for this my kind of would with the way they've started.

Yeah, yeah, and what's left?

Okay, next team, Indiana.

I'm a believer.

Yeah, I am a believer.

Not that I was a huge believer in Illinois, but again it's the manner in which and their non conference schedule is not indicative of much, but when you look how precisely they picked apart Illinois, now they have Penn State and Oregon on the road or I think in a couple weeks, I think there's a buy between Oregon, Penn State and Oregon Indiana.

But we saw it last season from Indiana against a lesser schedule.

I think a healthy Fernando Mendoza likely has a higher ceiling than a beat up Curtis Rourke.

And I'm just I'm in man.

The eye test is there, the speed is there, the how well coached this team seems to be is there.

And I mean kurtz Signetti is what sixty four sixty five, He's a finished product as a coach, I think at this point, and that's an amazing product.

I think they check a lot of boxes.

Even if they go ten to two and lose those two games to Oregon Penn State, I think they're just you look at the rest of the Big Ten and where teams have very clear and specific flaws and weaknesses.

I think Indiana is just built to to threaten double digits again the very least.

They are not playing for Mario mode now, you know.

And that's the difference.

And that's part of why I also believe in Indiana.

Now, my belief has limits with these guys.

I think they're very good.

I think they're probably better than they were a year ago, which is saying something because this team went to the playoffs a year ago.

This is a harder schedule, yep in twenty twenty five, and we need to at least mention that they've looked really, really good so far.

They looked awesome at home against Illinois.

This week they are on the road at Iowa.

Now I don't think super highly of Iowa.

I've had a full evolution in my thought around the Hawkeyes at this point.

But hey, tough defense on the road, crowd will be fired up, perhaps a bit of a letdown spot.

Let's see what they do there.

That look ahead.

Yeah, Oregon in a couple weeks on the road in Audstin Stadium, That'll be an incredible opportunity to show what they can do against one of the better teams in the country.

Also on the road at Penn State.

It's a tough road schedule, man, that's really really tough.

They do get Penn State a week after the Ohio State game.

After Penn State plays Ohio State on the road.

Yeah, so perhaps there's a bit of a letdown effect in play for Penn State, but they will have more opportunities here to show what they are made of.

If nothing more, they have proven that when they get up on you, they are going for the throat.

And I don't hate that.

I don't hate that in my college football team.

That's part of why I believe in this team again for the second straight year.

I'll say it.

I'll say it out loud.

Tie Indiana winning the Old Oaken Bucket this season.

There we go.

Put me down.

Texas Tech.

I think I'm a believer, ty are you a believer.

In Texas Tech?

With Baron Morton or Will Hammond?

Are you a believer in Texas Tech?

Regardless of which one of those two guys plays right, How do we feel about where they fit into the broader Big Twelve conversation?

At this point, I feel great about where they fit in, no matter who that quarterback is, even if they lose a game or two, with whichever quarterback ends up getting the lion's share of the work under center.

Mostly because Houston, Kansas, Arizona State, which might be tough, but they're not only running away from teams in the moment, especially on defense.

Oklahoma State, Kansas State BYU likely tough, UCF, I'm gonna need to see more, and West Virginia.

It would actually take a lot in this moment, injury wise, or something catastrophic internally like that, just the locker room is splintered, something like that for Texas Tech to not have a sensational season.

If they are good, not even great.

If they are good, they should win ten games against this schedule from here on out.

If they are half decent, they should be in the Big Twelve title game.

Yes, given that schedule.

Teams can grow, teams, can you know, have weird stretches.

Of course, ASU will be a tough out.

BYU will be a tough out.

Kansas State on the road.

Who knows.

I'm not thinking too highly of k State at this point, but maybe by November they'll get their act together and then closing out the year on the road at West Virginia, which is not the easiest place to play in.

West Virginia is already shown I think more fight than many have thought.

But yeah, based on what we have seen so far, you go to Utah, you win that game going away thirty four to ten.

There aren't many other teams on the schedule that you look at and shutter with fear.

I agree in theory, if you take Utah down in rights Echos, you should be able to go to Tempe and beat Arizona State.

You should be able to go to Bill Snyder Family Stadium and take down Ky State, should be able to go to West Virginia and take down West Virginia.

They need to get cleaner on offense.

It was a little bit too mistake prone penalties and such at Utah, but they're just not going to have that combination.

I don't think of defense and road atmosphere on this schedule.

So I'm a believer to the extent that the schedule is outstanding and it sets up really well for them.

I am a non believer from the standpoint of Texas Tech's never really been here before.

Yeah, but it's sort of like Indiana.

You're going to say in your believer in Indiana.

Indiana was never there before.

Texas Tech hasn't finished ranked in sixteen seventeen years.

But it's a different looking roster.

I don't know it is it is Oklahoma.

I'm not a believer.

I'm a believer in the improvement.

I'm a believer in the fun I'm not a believer that the wins are going to continue at this pace.

Why, I'm going to need to see more consistent from a downfield passing attack.

I'm going to need to see what happens to this offense if faced with adversity against some of the teams on this schedule.

The schedule is gonna get harder, right, This is a great year to get Michigan.

We'll see on what kind of year it is to get Auburn.

But I think everybody with a defensive line with a heartbeat might have some fun against Auburn this season.

I just it's a schedule thing, and it's the way this offensive roster is built thing that you do need somebody who can put a lot of fear into defenses out wide.

I think they're fine there.

I think they have guys who can make plays, but I just don't think the roster is there to get to like ten wins.

I am a believer in the overhauld roster.

I am clearly a believer in the defense.

I think the defense is legit.

Yeah.

I am clearly a believer in John Mattier and his ability to work well with ben Arbuckle.

I am not a believer in this offense as a whole, though, because this is still a very matere centric offense.

They are heavily dependent on whatever he can provide.

They didn't really run the ball at all, and they have not really run the ball that well so far this season.

And what do you need to do in the red zone?

What do you need to do in.

The red zone?

You gotta be able to run.

You got to be able to run a little bit.

Yeah, and maybe this is a little bit of what Brian Kelly was intimating when he went on his rant two weeks ago.

Now, you know, we ran the ball fine when we had to.

Okay, there's a school of thought there.

Maybe Oklahoma just needs to run it well when they have to outside of John Matier.

But I'm looking at the schedule and I'm thinking there are some defenses here that if you are so Materi centric, you're not gonna be able to beat him.

They're going to know it's coming, especially by the time you get into November.

Those final five, Yeah, LSU, Alabama, even Missoo, even Tennessee.

Like these are the road yep.

These are teams that are good enough defensively, if nothing more, to shut down to some degree what you're trying to do with Matier, unless he's good enough to win the Heisman, in which case all this goes out the window.

That is what I am fearful of with Oklahoma, that they are essentially counting on a Heisman caliber season from John Mattier in order to make it through the schedule and perhaps go go somewhere in the SEC.

The SEC to me, feels like it's enormously in flux at the moment.

We will get some clarity, hopefully this weekend, but I would just like to see a little bit more before I'd fully throw my hat in the ring, before I'd hold up my belief sign for Oklahoma.

I like what they're doing.

I think the trend is in a good direction.

I would just like to see a more complete offensive effort before I'm ready to sign up my name next to him.

Yeah, if it were an easier schedule, I think it would be easier to believe.

No, well, that's true as well.

Yeah, right in saliverbogmail dot com.

Let us know in the comments who you're believing in, who you're not believing in, and of course, as always, let us know why.

Yeah, all right, what are your thoughts?

Brown?

Yeah?

Brown University?

First game this week?

Didn't they lose?

I believe they lost.

I thought they won.

Did they win?

I don't even know.

I think we got a message that I said something.

Yeah, they won.

They destroyed Georgetown forty six to nothing.

Remember I said, you don't just go into Rhode Island.

It's a weird state.

Yeah, forty six nothing.

Okay, I believe I believe in Brown.

Sure I do too.

Let's play.

Let's pick some games early Bird special.

So before we go into this, I would just like to submit to you the idea of story Time Saturday as the game for week.

What is this four?

Week?

Four?

Right?

Yep?

Story Time It is so early.

The only way to pick these games is to basically invent the story and convince yourself that it's going to happen.

Okay, And so we've got three games here.

We're going to talk about the three highest ranked games on a loaded week.

There are many other games.

We'll get through all of them, if not all of them, most of them on the next episode.

But I found myself in all three of these cases looking at the spreadsheet, not really finding a huge disparity that I could hang my hat on, and in effect inventing a story and telling it to myself over and over again until I felt confident in it.

Okay, storytime Saturday.

For me a mantra.

Okay, I'm okay with that.

Three point thirty on ABC.

It is the LSU Tigers.

It is the Old Miss Rebels, number four against number thirteen, Old missus favorite at home by two points.

Now, the biggest story that nobody is talking about right now is this quarterback debate at Old Miss, because I think it's a real debate.

On one hand, you've got Austin Simmons, who won the job out of camp, has clearly shown flashes, but has been prone to turnovers and more recently some injuries, and then on the other you've got Trinidad Chamblis as a transfer from Farris State.

You talked to Bill Connolly before the year about Trinidad Chamblis.

Well, Bill Connelly just wrote about him that he was a believer in him in his Old Miss preview.

Was part of his sec preview.

Yeah, he's a huge believer in Trinidad Chambliss.

And why not.

Trinidad Chamblis has been absolute money every time he has seen the field so far, obviously played last week for the injured Austin Simmons.

Every season we have forks in the road like this every season, every team.

Most of them we only realize in hindsight.

But this is one I think that we understand in the moment.

Certainly Lane Kiffen understands it in the moment.

This is a huge moment for him.

It's a huge deal for Old Miss to get this right.

If it's me, and nobody has called to ask my opinion, But if it is me, I say, Austin Simmons looks like the future.

I think you got to ride the hot hand.

I think you got to stick with Trinidad Chambliss.

I think he should be the pick for this game on Saturday at home against LSU.

I think he's really good.

I think he's also smaller and doesn't have a huge arm.

He looks like an incredible athlete, is fearless, goes downfield under through some dudes.

You know it's a new level if you're dealing with new type of speed and new types of defenses to try and understand.

I kind of think Austin Simmons is a less exciting quarterback, but the best of him might be better given his familiarity in this offense against LSU.

I don't know what his health is, though.

I think Chamblis is really good.

I'm sold on him as a good SEC quarterback.

I am.

But this LSU defense is fast and angry.

I don't know, man.

They turned DJ Lagway over five times.

Florida offense is broken.

That's fine.

I trust Lane kiffen to to sort of create a vision and create an offense to get over LSU.

Do you think that LSU's defense is definitely that much better?

Yes, because it's fair to wonder about those wins over Clemson in Florida.

Yes, I don't think.

I don't think it's completely fixed.

No, I'd like to see better quarterback play than Cade Klubnick and DJ Lagway.

As crazy as that would sound to say in August, crazy right, crazy, that's absolutely on point.

Yeah.

I mean ole Miss was right there to win this game last season when LSU had an offense.

So I'm not sold that LSU won't have an offense this year.

I'm not sold that LSU has completely fixed their defense.

The game's in Oxford.

Yeah, I think I like ole Miss here.

The worst thing on this field right now is LSU on offense.

Brian Kelly's losing his mind when he's asked about, Oh, your offense has been a little bit disappointing.

You can't run the ball.

We won a game.

We won, guy, what are you talking about that?

We want that they can run the balls.

They can't run.

They haven't been able to run the ball this year.

Maybe practice is a different story.

Maybe running against the scout team, they look a lot better.

The numbers, for whatever they're worth, after four weeks, the numbers would say otherwise, the numbers would say that even if they do run on occasion, they certainly can't do it consistently.

Yeah, And if you're going at old Miss.

Frankly, they're way more gettable on the ground than they are in the air.

Agreed, So it should be there.

Like if Brian Kelly's theory here is that yes, we can run the ball, we just haven't always shown you.

This should be a week where they show the rest of the world, because that is how per the numbers.

Yeah, seemingly would want to go out.

Old Miss.

Agree, And you know what, Florida's defense comes to play.

Maybe Clemson's doesn't, but Florida's defense, despite its offensive issues, has shown up this year.

So that's a tough defense to play against.

I guess LSU.

I mean Brian Kelly has talked about how Garrettnsmeyer has had torso injury, swordis type things.

I don't love that.

I just I don't know.

I think I'm gonna give the advantage to Lane Kiffin at home here to find thirty points because I think that's the number that these teams need to vaguely get to, and I don't trust LSU to get there.

So I think LICs who's gonna make plays on defense?

And I think Old Miss is gonna make plays on offense.

I have Old what's the line here?

Two?

Yeah?

I have Old Miss winning this twenty twenty four.

The other question I have is whether we're going to see Old Miss blitz a little bit more than they have.

They've played three quarterbacks so far this year, Zach Calzada, Taylor Green, Jake Retzlov, who are good runners, and I think that's part of why they haven't blitzed that much at all this season, a lot less this season than last.

Garrett Nustmeyer is not a runner.

He's not, so are they going to try to dial up more pressure?

Are they going to try to force a mistake, especially if LSU can't run?

That to me is something I think worth monitoring.

The story that I've invented and told myself now please is that LSU's not gonna be able to run effectively.

They're going to put a lot on Garrettnsmeyer, that Old Miss is going to bring more pressure and force a mistake, that we're going to see trinidadd Chambliss out there, and that his legs ultimately are the difference.

I've got this as a high scoring affair.

I'm with you.

I think Old Miss wins.

I've got it at thirty seven, thirty.

Three, okay, four point victory we do agree.

Let's move to seven point thirty on ABC.

Dan Rubinstein, Let's Alabama Georgia Georgia right now a time of recording midday Monday, A three point favorite, Dan Rubinstein.

Yeah, both teams were on a bye last week.

You may recall this game from a year ago, Alabama one.

It was in Tuscaloosa, but it was a big win for Klein Bill was On paper, this looks about as close as any matchup I can remember.

It looks very close.

Yeah, you can only get so much from again, four weeks worth of numbers.

But from what we have seen so far, Alabama's pretty pass heavy.

I don't think we've seen anything reliable from them on the ground, but Georgia has been very gettable through the air, So maybe that plays well for Alabama.

And then on the Georgia side, definitely trying to run the ball.

They don't profile as a great rushing team.

They're rushing attempts work about fifty percent of the time.

But Alabama notably has had some trouble with tackling.

Tackling hasn't been great so far this season.

So in theory, maybe that works to George's favor.

You know, you play physical brand of football.

You force the issue on the ground.

You make guys tackle and open space, either because you're running the ball or you're trying to do some of those quick hitters to a guy like a Zachariah Branch, make them tackle you an open space.

Maybe that works their advantage, right, Just some thoughts yet with this one.

I think I really like Georgia.

I think I do really in Georgia.

Yeah, why Okay?

So obviously in Athens, uh, they the way that they found a way got fortunate in a number of ways to beat Tennessee on the road.

But seeing how much more fearless Gunner Stockton was through the air than I thought he would be in some of those spots that helped me.

I'm not putting a ton of stock in Alabama's win over Wisconsin, especially if they just if Marilynd replicated what Alabama did more or less, I think Alabama's going to play more inspired than what they did against Florida State.

I just I haven't seen Ty Simpson in a spot like this show out right.

And Alabama can't really run, and they've had offensive line issues, and now they're playing at night in Athens against this front and I love Ryan Williams, but I don't think this offense is going to specifically try to do with him what Tennessee did with Chris Brasel, Like, I don't think they're going to just have him go deep for fifty to fifty balls for four quarters.

And so I do like Klein de Borr and Ryan Grubb, and they're past of scheming up a passing offense to you know, take the roof off of teams.

I think that was the worst game that Georgia's secondary was going to have, and they've had time to correct things.

I just I don't have the trust in Alabama that I wish I would if I were going to pick them against Georgia on the road in this spot.

So there's a lot about Georgia I don't love.

I think the offense has been inconsistent this season.

I don't like their pass defense.

But I still think there are more ways for them to win this game.

So what with Georgia, ty Simms, You bring up a good point on ty Simpson and the Alabama passing offense.

It has been more pass heavy.

It does look like Georgia is gettable through the air, at least per the numbers, But there has been some time perhaps a correct that I am curious to see if Georgia blitz is Ty Simpson more than we have seen so far two straight games now for Ty Simpson, where he's been virtually unstoppable, but teams have only been blitzing him about nineteen percent of the time he drops back.

You compare that with what Georgia has done so far this season.

They blitz about a third of the time, so they're much more oriented around the blitz than any of the teams that Alabama has faced so far.

I think they're going to bring the heat.

I think they're going to force the issue.

If Alabama wants to stay this pass heavy, Ty Simpson is going to need to play a really, really sound game, and he's going to need to prove that in the face of pressure he can be as efficient as reliable as a response as he's been the last two weeks.

And I don't think that's easy on the road at night against Georgia.

So he's got a lot to prove in my view in this game.

The other thing that I would call out, and you were right to mention this about Georgia with their offense, but I think their effectiveness when they throw the ball is also worth a conversation here a Greece is not especially explosive when it comes to throwing the football.

Seventy seven percent of their targets have been within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.

We have a term for that here on the show.

Can you remind the fine fixaball?

That is almost the textbook definition of a pickleball passing offense.

Now, again, it's early.

I don't know if we can take those numbers is gospel at this point?

No, I don't think we should.

We've also seen Georgia take some shots in key moments right Notably, we made a video about the throw from Gunner Stockton to London Humphreyes against Tennessee.

That was a big moment.

So we're seeing shots.

We're also seeing those shots mostly against man coverage.

And the reason for that, in my view, is because Georgia still wants to try and run the football.

Teams know that Georgia is trying to force the issue and run the football.

You've got to commit more resources to stopping that.

What happens when you do that.

You can't just drop back and play zone all the time.

You got to leave some of your corners, some of your guys in the secondary, out on an island, and that's when they're taking those shots.

Bama this year has been very good at stopping the run.

BAMA had been pretty good at playing zone defense against the pass.

If Bama is good enough to shut down the run without over committing, without doing what I just described, without giving Georgia some favorable matchups that they can take advantage of, that could potentially be a game changer for them.

This is why I say I've got all these signals coming in that are in conflict with each other.

I like aspects of Georgia, but I could very easily invent the story in which Alabama has a counter and vice versa.

I think it's close.

I do think there is a revenge factor at play for Georgia.

I am absolutely convinced in Gunner Stockton being the dude, especially with what I saw on the road at Tennessee.

I mean, you want to talk about a big balls throw down the sideline to London Humphreys, I've said it until I'm blowing the face.

I'll continue to say it.

That was a big time throw.

I like Georgia to win.

I got it at thirty three twenty four.

Okay, fair enough, we.

And last, but certainly not least seven point thirty NBC.

It is your Oregon Ducks.

It is my Penn State Nitney Lions.

The points spread at time of recording is Penn State minus three and one half points.

It was bounced around in my brain before we hit record here that this reminds me a lot of two thousand and five when I went to a game with a friend.

I was a Notre Dame fan, he was a USC fan and we saw the Bush push.

Oh sure, twenty years ago.

Twenty gosh, twenty years ago.

Yeah, thanks, thanks for that reminder, of course, But could we see another class game like this?

As I'm in attendance with a friend who is rooting for the other team on the field, it's a good question.

Again, we will be at this game.

If you will be at this game, Sliverble at gmail dot com, hit us up.

We'd love to meet up if we can.

Tis about six to six.

He won't be able to miss him, can't miss me.

Tough spot for Oregon Dan, very tough tough spot on the road at night, white out in State College.

Have you been to a white out before.

I have I think it was a white out.

I went to Jimmy Clawson's first game Notre Dame Penn State two thousand and seven.

I don't have like a white house white house a white out index.

Yeah, but it seemed like a very large game and it was I think at night.

So I don't know when they did the white out in two thousand and seven, but that's that's where I was.

There's been definitely more of a effort to make the white out a thing since then.

Yeah, the white out wasn't always a round, but the white out is very much around now, and the white out is very much going to play a factor.

I think in this game at night.

NBC again will be covering this one.

Oregon looks like they get penalized a lot on defense as this Penn State.

Oregon is blitzing but not getting as much pressure as I'd expect.

So I've got a question about their defensive line underperforming.

I wouldn't.

They've just played teams who have just tried to throw the ball in half a second to combat organ But yeah.

I've got a question about whether we think Penn State can run on Oregon.

Okay, because based again at what I'm seeing on a spreadsheet, it looks like, okay, maybe they're gettable, But again, how much do we really take that to the bank.

I don't know.

On the Penn State side, I think it's been more of a trend that they have not been super duper explosive.

This is not a new thing.

This is the case last year as well.

So we've got a couple things floating around out there, at least with respect to spreadsheets and numbers and early tendencies that were picking up.

It's tough to know exactly what we should focus on, what we shouldn't.

What are you focused on?

I think I'm focused on quarterbacks and offensive lines more than anything because I don't know.

Oregon might have issues stopping the run a little bit, and obviously Penn State has two terrific running backs.

But to me, it's what is the architecture of Penn State's offense.

Are they going to be able to stop Oregon's edge rushers, especially Matteo uyangl Lay And what is Oregon's offensive line going to look like against a very good Penn State front?

And it's a pretty new Oregon offensive line.

Two new tackles, a new guard, and then it's a new quarterback trying to make sense of everything in a very hostile road environment for Oregon, whereas Drew Aller obviously has a ton of seasoning at Penn State.

With these offensive linemen in these big games, the good news for Pens is they're at home.

The good news for Penn State is there's a ton back on this defense.

And so if you have an electric home field advantage and a defense and an experienced quarterback, why would you pick anybody else?

Answer?

Penn State never wins these games.

Penn State didn't score on offense in this game last year against Ohio State, right, that was a white out.

That was a noon white out.

I want to say when we were at Michigan Oregon, I want to say, Penn State doesn't perform in these games under James Franklin.

Now they hired Ohio State's defensive coordinator to fix things, but I don't know if defense was really the issue last season.

They've got a good coordinator, but I think to beat Oregon this season, I kind of think you need to have game changing guys on offense.

Penn State has that at running back, at least with k Tron Allen, We'll see what Nick Singleton.

They don't have Tyler Warren, they don't have an obvious stud receiver in this moment.

Maybe that guy develops.

We just score points to beat Oregon.

Whatever Oregon's flaws are this season, I still feel like you're gonna need to score thirty points to beat the Ducks.

And Drew Aller hasn't been that the pass but six seven, eight games, playoff games, non playoff games, Villanova, whatever.

This hasn't been like a Penn State offense.

That's been just like, all right, now, this guy's turned up the seam.

Now that guy's turned for a screen to take it seventy yards.

It's not Penn State.

And so I think Oregon is the better team.

I think situationally, it's a no brainer for Penn State.

So I went back and forth on this.

I'm gonna go with the team that I think has better players and more ways to win this game.

It's Oregon.

Yeah.

I started out with, Okay, Penn State's winning this game.

What are the holes I can poke in that theory?

That's where was my starting point.

Penn State should win this game.

Penn State never wins this game.

And a lot of it is because of the offense.

A lot of it is because they find quarterbacks develop quarterbacks win a ton of games and never this one.

What's your final score?

I wrote down twenty eight to twenty three Oregon.

Okay, Oregan's allowed one touchdown.

They've played a better schedule, not a great schedule.

They've allot a one touchdown their defensive starters of one touchdown this season.

And I don't know.

I think Penn State's good.

What proof do we have that they're great?

I mean, aren't they just sort of colder Clemson at this point.

If Drew Aller was so good, shouldn't he be on an NFL roster right now?

Listen, everything you're saying I think is true.

My question about alur in this game is whether Oregon can rattle them.

You know, like I remain an unabashed Aller apologist here.

I am waiting for the moment where I feel like it all clicks.

We haven't gotten there yet, and this is last year.

Yeah.

We did see a couple moments in big games last year down the stretch where he was very emotional, and I think you could argue it affected his decision making, And so far this year, We've also seen some interesting decisions when he wasn't rattled.

This is an ideal spot for Penn State.

They get this one at home, but it is also a big game and he needs to play within himself.

And if we see Drew Aller doing kind of what he did in moments down the stretch a year ago the Notre Dame game, I think being a prime example of that on that final drive, Drew Aller needs to keep his head to him.

I don't think he's a guy who lacks composure.

I just think he really feels the moment.

I think he has grown into being more of a leader.

I think it has been a long process and I still think he is damn good.

But he needs to prove that he can withstand a moment like this, a situation like this, keep a cool head and prevail.

I think that's a fair question to ask.

And then on the flip side, I would say, with respect to your boy Dante More who's looked outstanding so far this year, Sure, I want to see how Penn State chooses to try and get pressure on him.

I e.

Can they get pressure without over committing and blitzing.

They've been able to do it so far this season against really bad teams, and we have seen on occasion over the last couple of years this is something Penn State tends to be very good at without over committing.

Because their front is so good, they're able to get pressure.

Can they do that against a good team like Oregan?

More to your question about offensive line and how it gels on the road, hostile night environment where it's going to be allowed as crap?

How do they deal with that Penn State front?

Does Penn State have to over commit in order to make Kim rattle?

History would suggest that they can do this.

Certainly on the Penn State side as well as the Jim Noles side, they're very good at figuring out ways to do this.

But this is the first real team they're playing this year.

So again, I think it's fair to wonder can Penn State do that here?

And if they do, what does Dante Moore look like?

This is a new situation for him as well?

And I'll go back to what I said at the top.

I do think that it's very important Penn State set the tone by running the football in the early part of the season, for whatever it's worth to you.

And again take these numbers with the grain of salt.

There is at least some evidence in the numbers that you might be able to run against Oregon, or at least a little bit more than you'd expect.

Their linebackers are inconsistent.

There's one or two guys where they're playing probably a little bit too much.

But yeah, roll so, I think that's imperative for Penn State.

I really do.

And much like you, I found myself coming into this matchup feeling like Penn State was the no brainer favorite to win, and coming out of it feeling a lot more leary than I expected.

I think it ends up being a close affair.

I think it's a defensive matchup.

I don't think you need to be thirty or get the thirty points to beat Oregon.

But I just think Oregon's been better so far this season.

They have looked better.

We've watched all their games, both sides of this.

I've watched all their games.

Oregon has looked better.

Yep, Ducks go on the road to State College.

They win twenty six to twenty four.

Man, You're always wrong, though, Ty.

Just saying maybe that's why I made this pick.

I go back to it was floating around the internet this past year.

What Drew Aller's numbers were when he was throwing to Tyler Warren, any when he was throwing to anybody else.

Like, he's on a string of like looking ordinary in nine of his last ten games, with like the one being Perdue or Minnesota or something.

Minnesota was pretty good last year.

I mean, his completion percentage is sub sixty five, sub sixty against you bad teams Leonova whoever subs sixty five, like sixty four point eight or something like that.

Yeah, I think he's just he's been recruit washed.

Right If he were a three star recruit from Mechanicsburg, you'd be like, yeah, impressive visit, Like, I don't know at a certain point, and maybe he beats Oregon and the narrative changes this week and we move on to a different Penn State story.

But like, his receiving options are worse this year than they were last year just because of lack of Tyler Warren.

But they're gonna win huge games, Okay.

Yeah, by the way, if he were a three star recruit from Central Pa, he'd be leading Missouri right now.

Oh that's true to a playoff bid or an SEC title bid.

But there you go.

That's neither here nor there.

Yeah.

I think Penn State's gonna be really good this year, really really good, but like ten and two good.

There are two early games this week that I think I want to mention real quick.

Okay, these don't need to be full previous, but we have alluded to both of them.

Friday, seven pm, it's Florida State a Virginia again.

That is six and a half in favor of Florida State, only six and a half.

Again, do not understand it.

I guess there is a look ahead at play here for Florida State with that Miami game on deck.

But UVa's look good.

They're very past heavy with Chandler Morris, the new quarterback comes over from North Texas.

If you look at what they've got in front of them, again, it's a very gettable schedule.

Yeah, very gettable schedule.

And so if we are talking three months down the line and UVA finishes eight and four, nine and three, I don't want anybody to be surprised by that.

I still don't know how good this team is though, I really don't, and I find it to be quite a leap to expect that suddenly they are going to be within a touchdown of Florida State because I think very highly of Florida State.

So for me, I think it's Tommy Castellanos creating plays off the threat of his legs.

I think what they're able to do through the air ends up being the difference here.

It's going to be a differferent kind of test for Florida State, to be sure.

Yeah, but I'm on Florida State here winning and covering on the road.

I'm gonna take the points.

Okay, man, that would be a story if they covered.

Short week Florida State on the road.

Virginia's fine.

Virginia's defense I still have questions about.

But offensively they're pretty crisp.

They've got a very experienced quarterback.

They've been moving the ball well, been taking care of business on offense.

The game is in Charlottesville and Florida State seems like a classic.

They played one really, really good game and we have no data otherwise.

All Right, I'm gonna switch my pick.

You're convincing me now the stories we tell ourselves.

I'm gonna switch my pick.

I don't understand this point spread.

I should just steer into it, right steer in.

Is that not the rule?

Just steer into it.

Florida State may be excellent, but right now, what the evidence we have is a game in which Alabama also look looked fully unprepared to compete.

So Florida State is one way way better than they were last season.

They're a way better team this year.

But I don't think this is the final version of Florida State.

So okay, I'm gonna take the points this is is it aligns with my belief system.

We think Florida State wins though, right I think they sneak by Virginia.

Yeah, Friday at nine pm on Fox, TCU on the road at ASU.

ASU favored by three and a half.

So this is short week after a road game.

ASU yep not able to comfortably move away from Baylor after winning the turnover battle three to nothing.

Still have issues on defense, still have issues connecting down field on offense consistently.

I think I'm going TCU here.

I'm warming up to the idea that TCU is going to come out of the Big twelve.

Now this is short week road for TCU, and this is short week was on the road for ASU.

But you're warming up to high ceiling TCU.

Yeah, I like their line.

Actually, their line has not allowed any pressure, and I think Arizona State is just not creating enough of that pressure for my liking, you know.

And what I kept coming back to is, if you're gonna give Josh Hoover all day back there to sit and pick you apart, he's gonna do it.

I really like Joshua.

I really like Josh Hoover since the moment he started playing quarterback at TCU, and I think he just looks really comfortable in that system.

We already know it's a quarterback friendly system.

But with the Big Twelve always and forever being in flux, and I think with the start TCU has gotten off to here, they are one of the few teams right now for me in the Big Twelve that I feel like I can count on.

I don't feel like I can count on Arizona State.

I certainly don't feel like I can count on a team like Utah, even Texas Tech.

I like Texas Tech, but I don't know if I feel the same level of comfort relying on Texas Tech that I do for TCU right now.

As weird as that sites, I also think the defense has been better.

If nothing more, they've been better at tackling in the early going here, I think TCU goes to ASU and they went out right.

I think so too.

I think I'm made on the Frogs.

ASU has just been too sloppy on defense.

They've been sloppy in the red zone on offense, finishing drives.

Like I'm just I'm not there with ASU yet.

I think they're going to be a good team this year.

I just think there is more to fix than I anticipated early on.

Now, are there going to be points in this game?

Yeah?

I believe so.

Are there gonna be big numbers in this game for Jordan Tyson?

Probably?

Yeah.

I'm not expecting this to be and Eric McAllister and Eric Calster.

This is not gonna be twenty four to twenty three.

I think there's gonna be a lot of points here.

I think it's to be a fun Friday night game.

You know, go to the beer store, load up for this one.

This will we get to watch together, but you get to watch together.

Yeah, we'll watch it a sports bar.

I just I'm in on tc right now.

I have this forty one to thirty five Frogs.

So look, this is a really big week of games.

I don't know what we're going to do for the window of opportunity, Okay, frankly, we could use a window of opportunity.

Being so we're going to be away from the TVs, or at least more away from the TVs than we normally would.

We're going to be at the Penn State game.

But there are three blocks of games on Saturday that are loaded.

The early block also includes Notre Dame at Arkansas.

Arkansas is about a six and a half point home dog, okay, as well as USC on the road at Illinois Illinois five and a half point home dog, So some home dog opportunities in the early slap also some home dog opportunities in the afternoon slate.

Indiana at Iowa, Indiana six and a half point road favorite.

Ohio State at Washington, which is a very interesting matchup.

High State favored by ten and a half in the road.

I think it's I think it's down.

I think it's down to like eight and a half.

Okay.

We've also got Tennessee on the road at Mississippi State.

I've got jotted down Tennessee favored by ten on the road, but that could have changed as well, yep.

And then also in that three thirty block, you've got Auburn now looking to rebound after their loss against Oklahoma.

They're on the road at Texas A and M A and M favored by about a touchdown.

Big block of games, huge, big block of games.

And then on top of it, the one that we discussed earlier, of course, the LSU ol Miss game.

And then to close things out at night, in addition to the Alabama Georgia game, the Oregon Penn State game, you've got Arizona at Iowa State.

That's an interesting matchup, maybe more defeated defeat Arizona.

Yeah, Iowa State favored by about a touchdown there.

And then I also included in here this is seven thirty n FS one, but Apps State at Boise State.

Boise State obviously a name, app State a lot new Boise State's defense kind of stinks.

Dan, is that true?

Kind of stinks?

Okay?

And I feel like app State is going to be able to keep that one within the number.

But if nothing more, it is to G five, G six teams that I think are of interest to the audience.

So a bunch of other games.

We will talk through.

Many of these the deeper we get into the preview the likes of like Duke Syracuse and Louisville, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Oklahoma State.

I don't know if you're interested in that, but Utah West Virginia could be interesting BYU Colorado late night looks like that could be a close affair.

That could be fun.

It's a monster week of games, so get your affairs in order, make sure you have a plan.

Yep, then it'd be good to go for Week five.

Can't wait?

All right?

Dan?

Look fun?

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