Navigated to 207. E-Mobility and V-2-X - dec25 - Transcript

207. E-Mobility and V-2-X - dec25

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

With Laurent segel And from London and Gerard Read from Berlin.

This is Redefining Energy Today.

Speaker 2

On Refining Energy, we're going to talk about emobilit and Gerard, you were on a panel a few months ago probably explained the circumstances and who was with you on that panel?

Speaker 1

Yeah, so I was invited by Jonathan Gifford actually on the recently was the head editor of PV magazine, and he brought together myself with Adele Chau from Trina Solar and Thomas Refiner from the Mobility House.

And I think people know who Trina is.

The Mobility House, a very exciting German business that was really founded to work in the whole area of vehicle to grid and you know the use of mobile batteries in the power system and stuff like that.

You know, very ahead of the curve.

I think the business is probably be years old at this point in time.

But actually what you get, the definite sense is that the time is coming.

Speaker 2

You know, during that panel you're going to discuss the uptake of immobility in your open China.

What are the implications for the energy storage and the industry, And of course the big question is you know how do you connect all those batteries inside cut to the grid.

The famous V two h V two, g V two X and probably everybody heard about the first experiment, which is a person BYD which have a combine offer where the PID battery inside the car is linked to the autop system.

That is absolutely fascinating.

So you're having this panel which began to listen to right now, but it's really all about the interaction between the EV and the grids.

You talk about collaboration and energy security.

So it's on one hand technical, but on the al though extremely hopeful conversation you have.

Speaker 1

Well, Lauren, I'm definitely not just hope all.

I'm incredibly positive about our future because it's the speed of innovation that really is changing our world.

It's incredibly exciting times we live in.

So John, let's listen to the panel.

Speaker 3

If you were out and about today, it's pretty likely that you saw an EV either on the road using some public charging infrastructure.

And the reason is that the EV industry and EV uptake is accelerating at a dramatic pace.

I think sometimes in the West we see headlines in general media that talks about EV uptake being slower or uneven or not meeting expectations.

But when you take a global perspective, evs are absolutely flying away with market share, driving away with market share rather and that made the discussion today of the role of electric mobility, batteries and energy resilience and our renewable energy transition so important.

My name's Jonathan Gifford, and this is a special series of the Smarterie podcast, and in this episode of powering through the Resilience of renewables here at the Smarterie twenty twenty five, we're addressing emobility, vehicle to grid, vehicle to home and the role that these different approaches and technologies, along with battery energy storage systems can play in delivering a more resilient electricity network.

My guests ray are Adel Jao.

She's the head of marketing, product, solution and customer service Europe for Trina Solar, Thomas Rauffner, he's a founder and CEO of the Mobility House, and Jared Reid is a consultant and investor and the host of the Redefining Energy podcast.

Thank you very much for joining me.

When we're talking emobility, it really is an area that is accelerating quite quickly, although it hasn't been linear, you have to say, and there's also a lot of kind of chicken and egg dynamics going on in terms of charging infrastructure and also the cars themselves.

If we're talking about demand, how do you assess the market?

Thomas, having been engaged in this space for quite some time.

Speaker 4

I have to smile.

In New Zellneary, it was a roller coaster.

It's also a line, but it really went up and down.

And I remember the first show here was two thousand and seven in ASLR and we were at the end of one booth and there was maybe half a hole and there was nobody because nobody believed in electric cars.

Now I have to say, if you look around, there are electric cars for too many, for some too little, and there are fortunately tons of renewals.

And now is the time to bring this thing together.

And fortunately we've been in Berlin yesterday.

People see now electric cars as part of the solution and not part of the problem.

I think this is really the major major mind shift that has been done.

And fortunately we have a government now in Germany.

Unfortunately they see what we do.

Unfortunately, now I think this concerned it will be a line in the future.

After sure, it'll be very steep.

Speaker 3

Well, I think when you're talking about a concern, it's there was a real narrative around if we plug all these evs into the grid at the same time, we're going to crash the network exactly right.

Speaker 4

And I mean if you don't do it intelligently, if you don't do it right, it will collapse.

We have seen that in Spain.

We have seen that in many incidents.

If you do it right, the cars can help to stabilize agrite.

If you get it wrong, it might cause a problem.

But if you do it right, this will be the biggest flexibility that we have.

Even today, we have one or five million cars that equal fifteen nuclear power stations.

That's a lot to stabilize a grid.

And they're here, they're connected, so you can do a lot with it.

Speaker 3

You speak positively about the framework conditions that are in Germany at the moment or encouragingly, but we really can't talk about emobility without talking about China at Del Jaos.

It's great to have your perspective here on this podcast as well.

How would you describe kind of ev uptake in China at the moment?

Speaker 5

I actually checked some number.

Quite interesting.

I'm pretty sure many of you already know that.

It will be also to highlight it's very interesting.

I will go to the battery.

How much actually were shipped last year in China of course to the global so in total is one thousand, one hundred and seventy five giga what hour, So the battery as a whole everything.

Of course, there are many segments on it.

Of course again EV is the leading one, and out of that it's seven hundred and eighty is for EB and so it's it's quite an amazing number.

And then the second is already also energy storage.

Right, but EV alone is really impressive.

I'm from China.

I just told Jonathon I just went back to China during Chinese your year.

But EV just so impressive.

The card, not just the price, everything inside, it's really impressive.

So globally we sold so every country was sold about eighteen million EV last year.

And also so it's about twenty four four percent growth globally.

But China alone we sold twelve million cars alone.

So actually a lot of my friends are driving EV.

So for like mid class family they can afford it.

It's really like something for everyone almost so that's really impressive.

And also the infrastructure is also there, so that's very very great.

Speaker 3

I think movement on the ev side, Thomas, I see you and nodding.

This sounds more like in China, more like an ev revolution than the kind of evolution of the market.

Speaker 4

Absolutely, and you're absolutely right.

Last week on the Shanghai Motor Show, you've seen impressively how the Chinese took over.

The cars are simply better, They are cheaper, they have more range.

If you look at technological improvements on the battery, DVD CTL announced the neon nature and battery half the price, one thousand kilometers range, four hundred miles charge in five minutes.

That's fueling event.

So it's really impressive.

And yes, in this industry is dominated by the Chinese manufacturers.

Fortunately I should see this is also already a technology that can be rolled out different markets and let's see how the other markets will pick it up.

But we will see a lot of Chinese cars in Europe and also in the United States.

I guess this industry is really really really the technologies there and it's really picked up, Okay, thanks to the Chinese.

Speaker 3

Yeah, absolutely, I don't know if there'll be so many evs in the US under the current tariff regime.

But let's see how that plays out.

I've seen you speak before about some of the performance, you know, when it comes to quality and the range that the Chinese manufacturers are delivering with their evs.

You know, we're in the south of Germany now, which is long being the home of prestige automakers BMW or Audi, these kind of names famous all over the world, Mercedes.

What do you see in terms of the auto industry the impact of this revolution towards evs driven by China.

Speaker 1

Well, first and one most I'd say, as a drive a car from BMW, which is obviously headquarters in Germany, but it's made in China.

So my electric car is made in China.

So what I want to say is the German manufacturers realize what's coming their way.

Right if you go and look at Mercedes, Diamer, biggest investors Chinese, right, So the writing's on the wall.

The question is how what do they do going forward?

They have to cooperate with the Chinese, right, there's no way around us.

The reality is the scale that China companies have, whether it's in the battery space, the power, electronics space, the drive space, even byd is a car company itself.

The speed that it's able to develop cars and bring them out.

Cooperation is the way going forward.

And if you don't cooperate, you die.

And the reason you're going to die is because it has been for the last ten years.

EVS has all been about cost of ownership.

It's cheaper to power the car than you know, use THEESEL or patrol.

Well today in China it's cheaper to buy an electric card than an internal combustion engine.

Now it's not the case in Europe, but the writing's on the wall.

And so you know you've got a car that's cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, more fun to drive.

Will you tell me who's going to win?

Speaker 3

And what about for implications then for this industry, right the trade show hauls outside here at this mattery, it's all about electrons.

So this is going to be a lot of demand coming onto the network, just demand for energy that's going to be hopefully produced from clean sources.

What are some of the implications, Jared.

Speaker 1

Well, I think first and foremost is that regulators and legislators need to realize that we're in a revolution and you need to embrace the revolution.

One point I give is Thomas now, for example, has been rightly so promoting using electric cars as resources in the grid for a decade.

We've only recently got in the regulations to allow this to happen.

So you can look at evs as, oh, it's a pain.

What will happen when we all charge at the same time the grid's going to collapse?

You go, well, sorry, why we begin to use that intelligently?

Charge you intelligently and why don't you use it?

Maybe back up your power in your home and you use it as a resource.

Requires regulationy change to enable that.

So I look, and the only thing that concerns me in this revolution of going through is I really would love to see the invention of an intelligent regulator.

Speaker 3

Impossible, Thomas.

Where are we at then, in terms of things like vehicles, a great vehicle to home.

In Germany and perhaps in Europe more generally.

Speaker 4

The technology is there, So a battery is made to charge an andrug, so it's by nature it's there, so it's not a big deal to charge it and draged.

So indeed, what is missing, particularly in Germany is the regulatory Frameburgh and unfortunately, I should say Germany is leading, but from the bottom the penetration of smart meters, so we have three percent out of hundred.

That's I think there is only North Korea and some other countries behind, so they really including Jordania and Italy, has more.

So we need obviously to measure have a smart meter and the regulator FRAMEBIC.

It is missing in Germany.

In the rest of Europe not so much.

Netherlands is great, we do it in France.

England is really the lead here, so in all the countries we can do it, even in the US.

So it will come, I have no doubt, because as you said, it'll be very cheap to drive an electric car, actually down to zero if you use it rightly.

And just to give you a number on the batteries, if one hundred percent of the cars would turn into electric cars, we would only use six percent more power, so it's not a lot.

It's not that we would then have to build I don't know, one hundred new power stations.

The power is there and actually with the existing renewable power plants that we have in Germany.

And this is not the sunniest place on planets.

Sun and wind.

This would be good enough to power and to fuel all the electric cars today, so it's possible.

Speaker 3

And also adding all that energy storage capacity to the grid also has the opportunity to reduce curtailment.

Right because we're throwing away wind in solar power.

Speaker 4

We assume that the power price will drop from average two hundred and twenty two eurospermeko with hour down to cilenty so it will be sixty percent less and it will be very hard and to make money on just selling kill about ours.

And I think the business models for all the utilities you might see this similar, So selling kill about ours will not be a business model.

So we have to be more intelligent arriffs, more intelligent offerings to your end user, including the flexibility of the cars at your home and at work.

Speaker 3

Okay, and if we go back to China again, Adela to bring you in.

You know, we want the emailbility revolution to be fueled with renewable resources, and we see that in China installing a huge amount of solar energy every year.

These are seen to go together.

Do you feel in China and by policy makers these solar energy, renewable energy emability, do you think it's considered as a.

Speaker 5

One definitely, because there's so many supporting scheme to support EV and that's why it moves so fast.

The infrastructure is essential, the all the charging stations, and then also the incentive for buying a car that you can exchange a car, give you your old car and then then you get the electricity car.

It's essential.

And then of course at the wider scale, the national grid has to be really robust, and also the regional grid that's essential.

I think you all know what's going on in China on the solar.

China is too big, so where can we put sola?

We cannot put in EACHA doesn't make sense right, It's just too many people, too many building so most little of them are in the West China, whereas Godby and nobody lives here.

And then essential is to how to bring this energy back to the highly populated region.

I think many countries a bit similar, so the infrastructure has to be there.

And also back to the TV part.

It's very interesting also a Thomas.

We're doing so like China now is doing lots of tests.

Like in my city, Jim Joe, where Trina is headquartered, we're doing a test now to do the V two G at the moment, so that it's also a national kind of government is pushing and say hey, let's try and shall I also have their many city.

We try a different model and see which one works.

So it's really it's not just manufacturing.

It's a hard ecosystem has to work.

The industry, the government also the society has to accept this is really the environment to grow EV well.

Speaker 3

The bet the trees are a key part as well, and that is manufacturing.

And as Thomas said, these companies like byd C at L, you know, really leading the way and also developing storage along with EV's they go hand in hand.

Trainer as a company is going kind of hand in hand solar energy storage.

Again, how similar is supplying energy storage systems and building storage.

Coming from a solar background and having scaled solar cell module making it's quat It's.

Speaker 5

Still in the same industry but a bit different.

Storage is really a project business.

Every customer had different needs, so we really have to customize the solution and also as well.

Not like in Europe, the first market was UK still today is the leading and then now Germany is also growing, Italy and Spain.

But actually they all have different business model like revenue stream, so actually we have to really design together also the software apart.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 5

Also every grid has different regulation, so it's really a lot of work together to be done with the local partner.

So it's also not just the storage the container itself, but really doing engineering together with the local partner to understand their need, their revenue stream and then to make it work.

I think that's the key difference from a storage business to a model business.

But we know why Trina did that because we know you have this issue.

We need storage we can especially when the penetration rate goes higher and higher.

We need flexibility on the grid.

It can be on the generation side, which we do a lot, but also on the transmission line and also on the consumption side for example for ev charging station, right, why don't we put it also storage to reduce the peakload because also save a lot of costs.

So there a lot of things we can do together.

That's why try and also move to do actually a long time before we launch our product because mister gow our CEO, no, we will need it now launching the third generation and the cell itself is our directions make more energy density, more affordable.

But also the key is really integration in the system level at each country, each customer to customize it.

Speaker 4

Regulatory yes, you're absolutely right.

If you only look at Germany, the at and it's montilities.

Everybody has its own rules.

But I'm not worried about that this will change.

The fundamental are globally the same.

We have renewables.

Fortunately, we have wind and solar and they come with volatility.

So and the answer to volatility, it's all about solar and storage.

So the volatility needs flexibility and needs a store.

Every other kill about hour that is produced somewhere on this planet need to be stored wherever market versione foud change.

Regulatory will change.

We don't know what the regime will look in France in five years.

We don't even know what Germany and tomorrow in the United States will do.

So what the fundamentals are right, We need storage and here batteries can help.

So that's why I'm super relaxed actually that batteries will take over because they're the cheapest form and all the cars are the cheapest form of flexibility that we have, and then we have to adjust with regulatory frameworks.

Sometimes people say you're such a fan of China, But yes, they are the role model of not as renewables for climate change, not because they want to save the planet necessarily, but it's simply the cheapest way to do it.

There is nothing cheaper than the solar powers station or in today you can't compete use any gas fire power station, so it's obviously renewable.

You know that better five and twenty gigawatts have been installed last year in power generation, four hundred out of them were renewable and three hundred and eighty out of them in China.

They drive it because it's cheaper.

It's economically cheaper to produce power resolar and it's economically cheaper to use batteries to store it.

That's why the fundamentals are going in the right direction.

And different markets will do have different regulatory regimes.

These will depend on governments, they will change, but the fundamentals will not disappear.

Speaker 3

Well, Jared, I remember the first time we were kind of ever in touch was we were a banking analyst like looking at these exciting solar stocks as they would come onto the market.

How similar do you see the progress of batteries to the progress of solar in the past because the progress of solar, the cost reduction has been amazing, that the efficiency gains have been amazing, but there's also been a lot of pitfalls along the way, a lot of bankruptcy, is a lot of kind of market uncertainty.

Are there those potential barriers to storage growth and ev growth as well?

Speaker 1

The industry is slightly different.

The reason it's slightly different is because what we had was in solar industries started in Germany and then went to China, and there was German industry was wiped out, as you know, there was a whole pile of solar companies in China wiped out.

We didn't have that in storage.

And the reason we didn't have it is because what we had was the Japanese and South Koreans basically three companies Anasonic, LG, Samptum.

They're still in the game.

And then what you had was ca ATL and BYD and these guys still even though it's going from South Korea and Japan towards Japan, in terms of market share, we still have the industry dominated by you know, six or seven players, so they've gone into what i'd call an oligopoly.

Very early the solar industry is already in an oligopoly.

There is five or six global players and they dominate.

That's why they're very similar today.

Now, if I look at this, as put my analyst at you add it, do I bet against the Chinese?

Speaker 5

No?

Speaker 1

If I look in the battery space, no way, because they had this scale.

Once you get to that scale, I think I heard that number which was that this forty billion lithiumine cells produced last year billion and then sold ourselves.

It's sort of five billion or something.

The scale is enormous and this is very, very important.

This is part of the revolution that we're in.

Going back to what Thomas said is people do not realize that we have never seen a generation technology get to market as quickly as solar because it's small and can be flexible.

The battery is the same thing.

All of us are carrying lithiumine batteries in our pockets and you can use them to power a town.

These two technologies together sort of change the energy landscape globally and I'd say forever, and we need to embrace it.

And actually, I take what Thomas has said is we have to look at China as the role model because China took a very strategic view on these technologies, if I may say, which is that we need to dominate the production and also the execution of these technologies the implementation of them into the system.

While in Europe we sort of started along the path and then have sort of backed away because we're afraid because we've got incumninent industries and whatever that are blocking change, and governments are scared of job losses.

But if we don't do something, there's even worse.

Speaker 3

Do you think there's a risk to it from trade disputes.

We've seen these crazy tariffs.

Yeah, it's essentially an embargo in the US, and then you know things like fringe during It's a terrible word, but this kind of push towards localism rather well.

Speaker 1

So I'm got to say, as an an economist, I go, you do not win terri for us if you have to put tariffs on somebody.

What you do is you're admitting that your own industry is not competitive.

That's what you're saying.

And then you have to ask the question, well, how do you get competitive?

You don't get competitive by making the alternative more expensive, because what you do is you spoil your own industry and don't force them to be competitive, So you have to re rethink the strategy in and around industry.

So I would say from European perspective, by talking about climate and energy, we have to really bring industry policy together with energy policy.

China have done that.

That's what we have to learn from China.

And I actually say the only way you're going to compete with China is how they compete with us.

Where did Coatl come from?

It came from Atl.

It was a Japanese battery business joint venture with the Japanese and then Catail is a spill out from it and the rest is history.

We have to do the same.

We have to admit that we have huge amounts to learn from China, huge amount and we need to integrate with them.

And if we don't integrate with them, then you can forget the automobile industry for example.

Speaker 3

So partnership is really promising way to both move forward in transition course and also to support industry.

Speaker 1

So if US decided they're going to go down the road of tariffs, I say, I hope we don't do the same because it is economic suicide.

Speaker 3

Tomas, You're seen to be agreed.

Speaker 4

I think I'm relaxed on that because we already saw that there was importext on mobile phones.

There was an importexing cars.

The next morning it was gone because the Americans wouldn't have a mobile phone.

Very simple.

So they say, hey, we need this stuff, so let's make it exemption here, let's make an exemption there.

This is irritating.

Is does make sense?

Speaker 5

No?

Speaker 4

Are we fed of hearing all the news every day?

Yes, but at the end of the day, there is no alternative to being competitive and having the best technology at the best price.

And you're absolutely right.

If you look at China today, we have a cluster there around better is an electric cars and also solar system that is unbeatable.

So last week in China, this was a great statement from the Volkswagen CEO of China.

He said, we build cars for China in China, and we build cars for the United States with more value added services in the US.

But at the end of the day, this speed and the learning needs to come from the best practice, and in the electrical car industry, it's China, so we should go there and they're the teacher, we etquate, so we should learn from them how to produce cars faster and better, and there might be other industries when they can learn from us, and I don't see that this will disappear fundamentally Again here Americans will probably look at industries that they can like a different intelligence.

They're strong there, so they might want to think about stuff export that other like the cars.

They will work with China and they will work with Europe.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 3

Well.

To round out this conversation, a kind of final thought, a quick final thought from each of you, this kind of intersection between renewable solar energy storage and emobility kind of what's the most exciting part or what is a key takeaway you want to leave the viewer with Adele.

I'll start with you.

Speaker 5

Yeah, it's amazing combination because solar plut storage to together and as EV, we're actually decarbonizing to most polluting industry in the world the more the energy itself.

So with SOLA itself, it's decarbonizing replacing the fossil fuel with the EV together, and that's where de carbonizing the transport industry with another biggest polluter in the world.

So we have to go hand in hand and then we can change the whole world, make the whole world cleaning on top of that, like Thomas I said, perfectly.

So what he's doing I think is amazing.

Right then, for example, Trina is putting on the stationary storage onto the grid, only the big one and the EV and then it's like a mobile power bank everywhere, very decentralized.

Everyone can do it and do some contribution, get back to the society, like the blackout in Spain.

We all have to do something with the mobility.

We are able to do it, do something, give back to the grid.

Why not.

I think it's amazing.

And then big company can participate.

But if I have a eavy car, I can do it too.

Why not.

So it's it's a brilliant idea.

I think you're putting everything together and make the change like into Soli itself.

Speaker 4

Right.

Speaker 5

I give two soundstep half the haunt today.

Look at ground.

It's really impressive.

We are already here and we have to push further and quicker and change war all the political disruption, but our industry were together.

We keep finding together and push and people have to less than the politician and nobody can stop us.

I'm strong believer in this.

Let's do it together.

Speaker 6

A powerful message.

Thomas nothing to add, thank you very very much.

It's obvious.

It's so obvious, Jerald.

Why it took fifteen years for people to understand.

But it's obvious, it's there.

Speaker 3

Just do it, and technology is there, is there, yes, Jared.

Speaker 1

I think the thing that I would add is I know that almost quite a while, so where what I would describe is nonlinear thinkers.

And the issue I would say is europinion is that our leaders are all linear thinkers and we're now living in a non linear world where it's very difficult.

You can't get McKinsey to just tell you what's going to happen because they're going to be wrong.

And we've lived in this linear world, if I may say, since German retification, and that's my concern as European is that we need more Thomas's in leadership positions that actually think innovatively and get things done quickly.

And that's what you do in China.

We do it together, well said.

Speaker 3

I think that's a great, great place.

Speaker 1

And I cannot do it alone.

Speaker 4

Also, thank you.

Speaker 3

Very much for your thoughts, Jared Reed, Thomas Refina adel Jao, thank you for joining the Powering Through podcast here at the Smartery twenty twenty five.

My name is Jonathan Gifford.

Speaker 5

Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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