With a round segle and from London and Gerard read from Berlin.

This is redefining energy today on ref Energy.

Chiard, We're going to Brazil.

Yeah, I've been there a long while, so looking forward to going there again.

Yeah, except we're not at COP thirty in Belem.

But we have a special guest who's there is in the thick of the action, and that's Bruce Douglass.

Yeah, it's good to have Bruce on.

He's the CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance and he's a great guy and a friend we've known for a long while.

Yeah, and he's been named Time one hundred Climate Leader, so it's really a voice.

He's been advocating for tripling on wabbels.

But at the same time, we all know how difficult that UN processes.

We've seen last month the UN Industional Might Team organization, you know, they had a big plan to the carbonized and everything has been destroyed by the US.

So is there a future in any UN process?

And on your hand, can we do without it even if it's toothless.

So you know, this is the questions ask ourself every year when couple arrives exactly, So that's why it's really good to actually have a live update from what's going on.

Okay, let's go live to Belem and we're live from bellm COP thirty and we are with us our good old friend Bruce Douglass, who is a CEO of the gr A.

So what's the g RA.

What are you doing there?

Hello?

Great to teach you again as always.

So the GRA is the Global Renewables Alliance where the single voice for the private sector renewables industry internationally.

So we represent when solo thermal hydrofile on the generation side, but also green hydrogen batteries, long duration storage grids, so basically the whole power system on the private sector side.

So tens of thousands of.

Companies who are all in on the energy transition.

Don't way copies organize you founders and well you've got a green zone and a blue zone, so maybe probably explain what is it and where you are right now?

Yeah, So the GRA we're always present at cop Climate Change conference.

Indeed there's like, well there's more than two zones.

There's multiple zones as negotiators of the parties, which is the countries, and then they have an area called the blue zone, which is restricted access for many for the countries and observers, so we are treated an official observer, and so the private sector companies, NGOs and civil society have access there.

But then also there's a green zone which is then full public access which allows exhibitions and a great format for interaction with the community and with other actors in the Amazon.

And located in Belen, which is actually a huge city.

It's a couple of million people.

And I've been walking around the last couple of days before the event started and I'd say, you lot, it's really exciting to be I do understand why they brought it here.

I mean, logistically it's a nightmare.

I have to say.

It's thirty thirty five degrees and high humidity.

The organization is not great, but just being here in the Amazon, you can see the impact that humans are having in the urgent need to address climate change.

You know, this is where the impacts are felt and then will be felt over the coming decades, more than anywhere else.

You were last year in Baku, So how would you compare in terms of size, in terms of zeitgeist?

What do you see what you hear in terms.

A size About same as Baku's sim number people the vibe this year.

It's a really important.

Cop this year because of the climate plans.

So the UN said a deadline of September for the country to submit their climate plans.

What we're seeing over the last week or so is the heads of state we're here at the end of last week announcing their climate plans, and although being covered quite extensively that the plans are not ambitious enough to meet at one point five degrees or even the tripling goal of renewables, there's some good news, and the good news is that Paris is working.

So countries are announcing their plans on climate, so they all believe that climate is a thing.

Those who are submitting their plans there's one hundred and ninety four countries here, so again the multilateralism is still a thing, and the markets are moving.

Seventy eight percent of the climate plans we've seen include a reference to renewables.

That's a huge increase on previous statements from countries.

Again, what we're hearing from the leaders, so this is not us speaking, this is the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guitarez, in his speech on Friday, said that clean energy is winning on price, performance and potential.

Couldn't agree more.

President Lula himself is pushing for an agreement or a work program to end dependence on fossil fuels.

I think the translation of the is something like get rid of fossil fuels.

It's calling at the cop of truth, the cop of implementation.

Truth is an interesting concept is you know, low scients and facts don't seem to cut it anymore, But the focus on truth theory is important.

More important is to focus on implementation.

You know, we don't need any more negotiations, we don't need any more targets.

We need action.

We need Okay, how.

Can we deploy this technology as fast as possible to phase out fossil fuels.

Well, Brazila oil production is up thirty three percent pastena or so.

Yeah.

Is there a bit of a double language here.

Well, you know there's a polarization in Brazil for sure.

That domestic politics and the international positioning is quite different.

As you've seen a couple of weeks ago, they authorized the license with exploration of new oil and gas in the Amazon.

We'll see if there is actually enough oil and gas there.

But at the same time, the government is i say, pushing very strongly on renewables, grids and the phase out of fossil fuels.

The President of and the President of Brazil are two different people, and so that the polarization you see, it's important to have this climate conference here in Brazil.

They have over ninety percent renewable penetration, so that grid is ninety percent renewables.

They have ninety nine point nine percent connectivity, so you know, there's ninety nine percent of the population is connected to electricity.

So it's incredibly impressive development that Brazil has seen over the past few years, and they're all in to continue that.

They're facing different challenges now, which is like almost too much renewables in certain areas the northeast of Brazil.

The members that we have they're operating see curtailment at average twenty five percent, some projects up to eighty percent.

So they're not in the money.

I mean very few people there, yeah ouch indeed, so business models don work.

Very few companies actually making money on renewables in Brazil.

So there's some reforms going on there to adapt that.

Of course, we need everything We've always been saying law, you need anticipatory investments and grids storage development and of course increased command off take so industrial electrification, electrification in general build that demand for these abundant streen electrons.

Between Barris and Belem, there was Glasgow, and in Glasgow pretty much the old financial sector gathered in new acronyms, chief funds, the net zero banking and everything seems to have like vanished to steal see bankers around, or they've become extremely shy.

You don't often see that many bankers in cop itself.

Last week I was in South Paolo at the Business and Finance Forum with Bloomberg and others.

There we met a lot of bankers.

I mean I won't name names, but you know, we had a lot of discussions with them.

My take is it on where they can get returns.

They're all in, but you know better than me, Lah, in the finance world, it's pretty brutal.

They will capital will flowed to where the returns are best.

Fossil fuels still have double digit returns.

Renewables still struggle to get single digit returns, So that capex conundrum, the irony of the fact that renewables are cheap, So that's the l theory of renewables is low wants to build them, but high capex at the beginning and low margins.

So yeah, this is the challenge in our face.

We need to de risk renewables as fast as possible, so public money, concession finance, and accelerate the build out of renewables in those emerging markets, those places where interest rates are high.

Excuse me, that's for me, that's an old way of thinking.

If I look at the investment in clintech, so we're going to put solar, wind batteries, evs and so on.

This is two trillion a year right now.

And if I look at the capex of oil and gas seven hundred billion, and if I agree with the IA, eighty percent of it is just to maintain the production.

And this is industree going from one hundred million barier level oil the day to maybe one hundred and one.

I mean, this industry has really plateaued, whatever they say.

Whereas we as renewable, as we are growing batteries of forty percent evs plus twenty five percent.

So question is do we really need a bit of a top down world bank cup organization or is it just organice And we're kind of spectators of what's going on what's your take.

Yeah, I like those two options.

I think there's more options than that, but I definitely agree with him.

Is Michael Barnard.

You're a colleague and friend who said the energy system doesn't obey our ideology, it obeys economics, and the economics are clear, So we don't offer renewables.

You don't need this top down approach anymore.

The market are working over ninety percent of power additions last year with renewable energy, and of those more than ninety percent of those projects and now generating power cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, saving something like four hundred and ten billion dollars per year in volatile fossil fuel imports.

So it's done.

This is definitely a transition, it's not an addition.

And the markets are moving very fast.

Renewable energy is growing at six percent per year.

Fossil fuel is still increasing importunate, but only by like one one point two percent a year and slowing down.

So the trajectory is absolutely clear.

This is a revolution, electro and renewable revolution.

I just put an opinion.

Piece in the Financial Times with Kingsmill Bond for member, saying exactly that at the end of the petro state and the start of this electro tech revolution.

So that's what we're seeing.

But what I will say is on the other side you mentioned, do you need that into government interventions?

Absolutely in those technologies that are not seeing it, So grids for example, difficult business models, large cappex, long operation times thirty forty years.

Who do need public money there to do risk and incentivize build out of grids?

I don't know.

If you speak a lot about the eight hundred pound gorilla the US, do you see any US guys around or not?

No?

And there's no senior US delegates here, so the negotiations are going on without them.

As you know, he's pulled out of the Paris Agreement.

I mean legally they're still in the unf Triple C.

So they could come, and I don't anticipate they'll come.

And they've seen what they did with the plastics treaty, with the IMO, the International Maritime Organization, So the interference there, and it's political interference, it's not negotiational diplomacy, and so we anticipate they might do something like that here.

Let's see.

Going back to my point, the positive is that one hundred and ninety four other countries are all here and mostly all in all the countries that.

We meet, and I don't know how.

Many ministerial meetings we've got lined up these weeks, but dozens of countries.

And this is emerging markets, not developed countries.

These emerging markets saying how do we do this?

It's not why, it's how do we do it?

What should we do?

And a private sextor companies that I represent are here en mass in force, saying let's get this done.

And just over the last twenty four hours, I've had meetings with Ultipurse, with best US, with cip and many others who are here representing the industry, speaking to the governments, working together with investors to get it done.

So we do talk.

About the elephant in the room, of course, but for us, it's a distraction, it's noise.

US is six percent of six to eight percent of renewables investment in the world.

There's a lot more excitingly going elsewhere.

Growth markets are elsewhere now, And the latest BNF numbers show that you and your investments in the US are down thirty six percent and they're up in Europe thirty six percent.

So capital moves as soon as it gets uncertainty somewhere it they'll move very fast to somewhere else.

The other interesting fact for you laugh and this will annoy the US, is the US anticipate to have a record growth this year of renewables again and that will continue to twenty twenty seven.

Now that's pipeline projects.

You know, record renewable growth in the US out of twenty seven is not something that maybe that administration would want.

But that's economics.

That's the state level investment, corporate private sector investment, and the financial institutions.

Let's focus on the signal and not the noise.

It's happening and happening fast.

Are there a lot of conversation around AI data centers or not really?

Last week in South Pari it's focused an event with the Ministry of Fine and so Minister hadad Here and vis Abad that they're actually bringing out a new law called the REDATA that they're proposing, which is about centivizing and almost obliging new data centers to use renewable energy.

I mean, we're calling it no dirty AI.

So if you have to go down the AI route to build data centers, then it should be clean we're open about what clean means.

But you know, obviously renewable energy for us is the cheapest, fastest way.

And the data center hyperscalers that we talked to used to be five years ago is you know, not used to be give us affordable and clean power.

Okay, then firm, then fast.

Now it's give us fast, firm, affordable, and then clean.

I mean no, I mean, come on, when you put ocgts, when you put fuel cellers, when you put whatever rid decent generators, it's not clean, and it's not even affordable.

No, it's not fast either.

So what what I was saying is the answer to those questions is still renewable.

I mean, renewal is the fastest, cheap brist power for those off takers.

And of course one of the great point of excitement around the UN negotiation is all that question about Article six carbon market.

Do we see any procasts there because there's a lot of talk but not a lot of action.

Yeah.

Well, there's been a lot of talking that for a long time, and the Article six was supposed to success coming.

Out of Top twenty nine last year.

I haven't heard much about it.

It is on the table again.

It was discussed last week a bit in TA power, but I've to say I haven't been keeping track of that one.

I have a question for you, Saudi Arabia.

How much money do they put in climate efforts outside the region versus how much money do they put in organizing boxing matches.

That's not a statistic I have at top of mind level, but it's a great question.

I mean, what I will say is they invest a lot in energy transition in their country.

I mean, their target is sixty percent renewable by twenty thirty, and although they're not quite on track for it, they are developing renewables, wind and so scale.

They're doing it so that they can then export the oil instead of burning oil for power generation.

But listen, that's my opered this morning, and you FC was basically saying the end of the petro state.

All countries, all markets, even those with huge oil and gas deposits, are now investing in renewable energy in electrotech, either for their own domestic use, for the purposes for manufacturing and export.

China is a great example.

So you know, this shift is unstoppable and happening in countries you'd never expect.

You're on a very POLITITIONI do you not reply to my question?

I don't know the stats on the boxing matches in Saudi.

It's all times more, four times more in boxing than in helping the climate negotiation.

So we have the US doing MMA at the IMO and the Saudi organizing boxing matches.

Now, of course Kopp loves acronym and alphabet soup.

So I heard that one of the great innovation was something called the t F f F, which I probably would rename the wt F f F.

Is it for real or just a few guys with a few bit of budget trying to reinvent something.

The Brazilian government, when they successfully getting the cop wanted three things they want.

The forest Amazon is absolutely critical here.

You know, being in the Amazon you can see it, and so.

Their focus is on that.

The t FFF is about that forests, and you know, luders looking for billions to basically monetize valorize tropical rainforests so that they survive.

And I think it's a great thing.

It's not our personal mission, but you know, they are essential for the survival of the planet.

The second thing is sustainable fuels, which is a rebrand of biofuels.

They've got a four times pledge on that, again not our thing, and the final pieces on the financing there will be a cover decision out of COP.

So that that's what we anticipate, which is good cover text, which should summarize everything.

What we want to see in there is of course the continuation the implementation of the tripling renewables.

Do not take the put off accelerator on that.

That's the quickest, fastest, cheapest way to decarbonize.

And the second thing we're looking for is the grids and storage.

Really some action on that to follow up with what's been discussed before.

Well, Bruce, you're in the thick of it.

So at every coup there's the same question, cop off, flop, Amazon or Iceberg?

How do you see the result of that cup?

The cops are not the be all and end all for us.

At a moment in time where a multilaterism comes together and they countries have to talk about this, the peer pressure it works.

I genuinely think it works this particular cop.

Let's see if it is a flop.

I think the Brazilians are doing a good job trying to navigate and steer this towards success.

And again, as I's say, success for us looks like continued action on renewables and most importantly on grids and storage.

You know, we're delivering jobs and one stat for you before I leave the job increase of renewables.

We're adding eight thousand jobs a day now and thirty So this is for the politicians that say to us, what's in it for me?

Are those jobs inward investment, growth, security, independence, and affordable clean power.

You can't argue against that.

I don't think it's a bad word to be said about renewables anymore.

We're winning that argument with the policy makers.

My concern is been wider narrative.

The disinformation out of this cop could well be, oh, it's a flow, climbings are carn and renewables are scam.

It's not true.

That's what I would think.

What you're saying is whatever the sign or they agree on to phasing, phase out, phase down is irrelevant.

We are now reach a point of technological maturity and pure economics that our side is winning, and the question is how fast can we scale?

And it's never decided that cup is decided that government or oh, investor.

Level absolutely totally agree with you.

The private sex of investors and you know, let us do it.

I wouldn't say it completely unconstrained renewable growth, but let us do what we need to do remove some of the barriers.

I mean the denial, delay, the distraction, and it's really that that's the main issue right now.

Bruce, thank you so much for your action in relation to promoting renovableles, and thank you for your report from the Cup and we'll talk again next year.

Treasure Law and preachings from a very hot and sweaty Balain.

Thank you, Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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