I'll probably cut this section out, so you.

Probably should so we don't sound like stupid.

Welcome to episode three twenty five of Flags Live Forever, a Baseball perspective fantasy baseball podcast.

This is Mike Janella, and with me, as always, is John Haglund.

Hey, Mike, how are you doing good?

You notice I'm trying to make these introductions crisper because I you know, you hear from people that they just want you to get right into it, and I don't mind the chatter.

But I also know sometimes like from listening to others, you know, I listen to a lot of podcasts this time of year to kind of hear what other people are doing.

If it's like a five minute intro, it's like, okay, like I'm you know, I like you guys, but I also am here to talk about baseball.

So let me let me give you the bullet points.

It snowed about five inches last night, so it was like the biggest snow we got all winter.

Woke up this morning and my son ate a little breakfast and then promptly threw it up.

And he's been home all day and took a couple of meetings on Zoom because I couldn't go to the office.

So that's that's my my Wednesday, and we can get to the baseball Now.

Yeah, the kids, the kids here might are going to have an asynchronous learning day because there's like a threat of snow and ice.

And I don't blame them the school for doing that, because that's worse than snow.

Like the snow you can just kind of plow off, but the snow ice combination just just makes for a mess.

D Speaking of mess, we have quite a few shortstops in our fast starts.

What a segue.

So yeah, to briefly introduce this to the dwindling number of growing listeners, we're a week ahead of the content coverage at the Baseball Perspectives website.

So this week the content is third base just another well by the time you listen, it won't matter.

But my article is a little behind this week.

It's going to be published tomorrow, which which is Thursday, February sixth, And what we're doing is we're a week ahead of the coverage.

And there's there's five tiers of players at every position, the five Stars rounds one through two, the Elites four Stars three through six, the three Stars, Round seven, through thirteen, two stars, fourteen through nineteen, one star is twenty and like through about twenty three or twenty four, and then at some positions there's zero star.

So let's go into the five star because as you pointed out, there are a lot of them.

There'll be more here at any position but outfield, and you know there are many more outfielders.

So this is very, very meaty.

So we've got six here and Bobby with Junior, Ellie De la Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts who's at short stop now, which seems weird, but he is, Francisco Lindor, and CJ.

Abrams, so big tier.

I know some of these names are obvious, like we could probably spend five seconds, you know, talking about great Bobby with Junior is But is there anywhere you want to start?

Yeah, I wanted to talk about kind of put Ellie next to Gunner and as far as ADP goes and the last I think it's been consistent throughout draft season, but in the last fifty Draft champions, we've got Ellie going pick four, Gunner going around pick six.

Wait is a clear number two overall?

Now for I feel like I'm a little I might even lean Gunner here, And I just wanted to get your take because this is kind of the class case of two players, one of whom I think is is a very high floor player, and that's Henderson.

And the other is maybe the four is a little lower, but the ceiling could be much higher, and that's that's Ellie da La Cruz.

I still worry about the k rate, and I worry about some variants possible in the batting average with Ellie.

Even though he does hit the ball very hard, the steels are obviously the big draw.

I think it's tough to project steels.

You know, you you assume that he's going to, if not touch the fifty sixty seven he got last year.

He's projected pretty much like fifty four for most for you know steamer zips atc I'll have them at fifty four.

What's your your calculus there?

And you know you have Ellie ahead, and I'm just wondering what you're thinking is as far as putting him head of Gunner.

Well, I'll be honest, like this is like a virtual tie, like I have the same like mixed auction values.

So so the tie break here is their ADP.

So really like I have them seven eight overall, which means I'm slightly behind the market just because I've got a couple of outfielders that i prefer, and we can like talk about that like when we get to the outfield podcasts.

But yeah, I think they're really close.

And I agree with everything you said, which is Ellie probably is more of a ceiling pick, particularly because of those those steals, but there's way more variance.

And yeah, the strikeouts still get me nervous, honestly, they get me really nervous.

But there is that chance.

I don't think he'll lose a job, but there is a chance he hits like two twenty five, two thirty.

And if he does that, like the runs and the runs bad at inn't drop.

The steals obviously drop.

If you can steal first, the power would drop a little bit.

So I don't think you'd be buying into a complete bus.

But there's some there's a bit of a disappointment factor here that's not related to injury risks I don't think exists with any other first round pick, whereas, yeah, Gunner here is the safer pick, and it's not like his ceiling is that far off from Ellie.

I just think it's a different profile.

And I when I look at these two, I don't think I'm going to change my ranks to put Gunner ahead of Ellie.

But you know, if you and I am the main event, like say, you know, we have the pick and it's a choice between these two, and you nudge me, you know, and say, hey, like I want to take Gunner over Ellie.

I don't care what your sheet says, Mike, or what our sheet says.

I'm not going to fight you on it.

Yeah.

Yeah, I think that with Gunner, the power from last year might be a little that might have been a career year as far as the thirty seven homers, but I think around thirty is pretty pretty safe.

And I think there's a little bit of room to pick up some some batting average as well.

I mean, I just think he's an all around great hitter, and I feel better about drafting players like that in the first round, even if they don't completely dominate one category.

And by the way, you let slip.

We didn't talk about it last week, but we are officially registered for our second main event.

I did let it slip.

Yeah, I didn't, you know, I didn't really know it was like breaking news thing or anything.

But yeah, we're we're gonna try our hand again at the main event.

Hopefully you know, crack at least the top one hundred this year and you'll hopefully win win our bracket again.

So yeah, we're looking to have more success than than we had last year.

And just so just so you know that you know, we are we are invested in the you know, the projections and the ranks that we're talking about on the podcast.

You know, this is not purely theoretical for us.

Yeah, we're Yeah, I would say we have we can ever made event podcast and and have that whole discussion another time.

Uh, you have you have Abrams in your five star I'm kind of you know, I don't know if there's anything you want to say about Mooki or Lindor.

I do kind of want to bring up Lindor maybe in a minute.

But you have Abrams ahead of a DP.

You have him in your five star tier, which implies top two rounds, and he is currently going the fourth round.

Uh, it's just ahead of Corey seeger.

So you want to talk a little bit about your enthusiasm for Abrams someone that we were we were pretty bullish on last year, and he had a solid year, a good year, So you think more of the same or uh, maybe even a step up.

Well here, I think the same thing I thought about Abram's last year.

He's similar to me, and I think the steel ceiling might be a little bit lower, but he well, I shouldn't say the power seil is a little bit lower, but he's similar to me, to Ellie, like I see them as having similar potential outcomes, and really like Abrams, like remember last year in twenty twenty three, actually in twenty twenty three, in the second half, he ran like a fiend, and then the league it was weird.

He's often you hear this with like, you know, hitting, but the league kind of adjusted and then he was adjusting back.

I still see a really high steel ceiling here, and there's enough power, there's enough of everything else that this is a back end of the second round.

I don't have him when you know, this is the whole thing about these tiers, Like I don't have him up there with the other five shortstops.

It's more like he's right on the periphery of the five and four star tiers.

But yeah, i'd be fine with him like probably you know, end of the second round, but more realistically beginning of the third round.

Like keep in mind, if I have somebody ranked at the end of the second round, it means that the draft would have to be chalk for me to take the player there.

So I'm looking at him as more of a third round pick.

So yeah, I like Abrams a lot, and if I miss out on these shortstops, I kind of like making the Steel play.

I look at the projection and I think it's a little pessimistic, particularly on the stolen bases.

I think everything else is fine there.

So if you're looking at twenty forty player with like a two to fifty batting average with a pretty good run total, that plays for me at this value slot.

Yeah, I was going to say, you would have to be a little bit higher on the Steels projection to justify him in the five star or kind of on the four or five border, because projections have him pretty solidly in the thirties.

I would say, well, it's kind of a range all though.

I would say mid mid to high thirties.

Mid thirties is sort of the mean there.

And when you when you get down when you get down to like the some of the three star players, you're you're maybe getting some similar profiles.

And so I think the only thing that that would justify Abrams here is if you really were you felt good about forty ish steals.

I mean, I like him, I just don't know that there's a lot more ceiling and and I actually you know the stack cast uh spirit metrics.

I don't want to overplay those, but he actually has.

He's a slower sprit speed than you know, people like Mason Wynn and and GM Henderson and Anthony Bolby.

He's He's not.

I thought of him as more of a burner, and I thought there's not a direct correlation between that and your soul and based total.

But he is.

He is not the the blazing speedster that that maybe we thought he was.

Yeah, I I you know.

The funny thing about him, though, is that I think you're right.

But that was even the thing about him in twenty three when he was stealing all those bases the second half, it was more that he was maximizing his jumps.

He was getting good leads, he was getting good reads, and that was the thing that pitchers started figuring out.

And my bet again is kind of on the cat and mouse game and him kind of taking some of that advantage back this year.

So yeah, I do agree.

If you think thirty one steals, which is where like the more pessimistic projections have him at, is kind of where he's going to sit, I think you're right.

I don't think you should take him this early.

I will also say the other side of this too, like this this is a player is going to be twenty four.

I do think there's some room for growth besides Steals as well.

Like I'm not saying he's going to be like a top of the pop short stop like Gutter for example.

But this kind of goes back to the lle analogy, Like I look at the two of them, and I'm like, well, I don't think they're as different as people might think they are, Like just based on last year's numbers.

Uh, do you want to talk about anyone in else in the five star?

Like, yeah, just Lindor Briefly, I think that's kind of is what he is.

I'm I think it's odd that coming off the end of a season last year where he missed lindormis a lot of time due to back issues nobody's really talking about that.

There's not even a slight downgrade on him.

I get it.

He was great last year and boy did we you know, speaking the main event, Boy did we benefit from him like on the whole.

But this is more of a downgrade where I have him probably like middle early to middle part of the second round more than I think he's going on the back end of the first, which means realistically, I probably am not going to have him, particularly in draft formats anywhere.

And some of this is Lindora and a slight nervous nervousness about the back.

And it's less even I'm worrising to get hurt.

It's more I think, well, if the medicine or cautious and he's like a fifteen to twenty steel guy as opposed to a thirty steel guy, that that's a big difference.

Yeah, I think all that's fair in the back is really it's one of those like we were talking about shoulders last week, you know, backs are also something that affects you know, I'm speaking a little bit out of my out of my depth.

I am not that kind of doctor, but I have I have suffered some some back related woes.

And it really does affect pretty much everything that you're doing with your body.

So yeah, I want to talk about Lindor in contrast to someone in the four star tier.

So should we get to the four star tier?

And then I yeah, that a little bit.

Yeah, there's three names here corus Seeger Trey, Turner, and O'Neil Cruise.

And I mean, I think unless you want to make a really weird comparison here, I think it's pretty obvious you want to talk about trade Turner.

Yeah, and I have have Lindor.

I mean, double check my my ranks here.

I have Lindora ahead of Turner just right.

I have one, two, three, four, Lindor fifth, Turner sixth.

I just think they're they're a lot closer for me.

And I think if Lindor is being slightly overvalued, I think maybe Turner's being slightly undervalued.

And I sort of i'd be I'll be interested to hear where you are hesitant on Turner.

Yes, it seems like the running, certainly last year was was dialed down a bit, although you know he was out for a while, he's still he stole nineteen bases, but he did miss forty one games, so you probably put that total somewhere in the mid to high twenties if he plays a full year.

The speed is still good.

I mean last year he talked about being nervous to run because of the hamstring injury, and I guess with with Turner what I want to and kind of, you know, it's thirty one, right, so he is sort of getting to that period of his career where the speed might start to, you know, sort of fade away a little bit.

But he's he's just he's a great hitter.

He's still hit two ninety five, even with a pretty bad slump.

I think if you just sort of don't overthink it, he's in a really great lineup, and I think the accumulating stats will be there.

I think I would probably his projections happen mostly in the nineties.

As far as runs, I easily see triple digit runs, mid twenties homers and mid twenties, mid to high twenties steals, mid twenties steals.

But it's it's still I think, a really safe and you know, it's a safe five category, a true five category profile, And so I would not be surprised if he returns like you know, thirty ish dollars next year and you maybe get him at a slight discount.

Yeah, So couple things.

One just and I kind of louted this before.

So this is one of the kind of the problems with the tiers is that I more have Abram, Seger and Turner in a clump, and this is just kind of how I have them ranked, Like I have them six draft slots apart, and it just so happens that Abrams is at the bottom of one tier and Seegers at the top of another.

So it's just kind of a weird like way that worked out.

So it's not like I'm way down on Turner.

It's like, well, this is just how things shook out.

However, I do have slight reservations.

One of them is the hamstring strain.

He was out for a month and a half.

But the bigger concern is you alluded to first.

For a while he wasn't running than he was, but he was getting caught more often than he did.

And I'm not saying that'll necessarily over physically, but I do start to see, as you pointed out, he'll be thirty two in June.

Players do kind of start to slow down a little bit.

They do tend to be more cautious.

I know running is a big part of his game, but to your point, and this is kind of a weird thing about Turner because you know the type of player he is, and he's so good everywhere else, he doesn't necessarily have to run or run a lot to be valuable, if that makes any sense.

So it's it's not like, oh no, if trade turnerly steals, only steals fifteen to twenty bases, like he's going to fall off.

And so then my second concern is, you know me, I don't want to call any I never call him any injury prone.

But this is a player who like missed a significant amount of time early in his career and then now for the first time in years, had an injury.

I'm not suggesting he's like an automatic Canada to get hurt, but it's because of the demand's position, because of the way shortstop is.

He stays on shortstop, which it looks like that's what he'll do.

I just think he's more prone due to those demands of being past age thirty on the curve, you know, missing like a few games here and there, and I think I see that some of the projections have him up at like, you know, one hundred and fifty, one hundred and fifty six games.

That feels robust to me.

I feel a little safe for like one forty five.

So all of that combined is just looking at a player.

I'm like, I think he's great.

I think you're right.

He could very easily.

I could be wrong about this, and he could have one more year in the tank and could be a second round player on the cusp of the first.

But I just feel like I don't want to pay that price.

I would just say, and of course you make great points, but pretty much everything you just said about Turner you could also say about Lindor.

Yeah, as far as the age and the the you know, injury last year and the worry that it will manifest in some form, even if it doesn't keep him out, might keep him from running as much.

So I think what we're what we're seeing here really is a kind of maybe a little bit of recency bias.

And I'm not talking about you know, I'm talking about the market more so a little bit more recently biased with Lindor, whereas I think he and Turner are pretty pretty comparable.

Yeah, I think I think that's true.

Like for me, I have I think I have both Lindor and Turner like about equally, like the same nine I have to look at like the ADP.

But I think I have them about the same number of ticks like behind what their ADP is.

So yeah, I've got and actually I've got Turner six slots behind his ADP.

I've got Lindor five slots behind his ADP.

Yeah for me, I'm sort of downgrading them equally.

But I think you're right.

I think the market is has Lindor very close to what you're in last year, and has Turner around when you're in last year, And you're right, like what that is is the market always does this, like it's probably over correcting based on last year for sure.

And if you don't agree with me, like if if you think Turner's hamstrings are fine, and honestly, if he looks good this spring, looks healthy, I I'll probably move him up to to the five star tier.

This is sort of a preseason rank because that's when I'm publishing these where I'm like, wow, I'd like to kind of see what he does before I you know, in March, before I just confidently like take him in the second round.

So two other players in the fourth star as you mentioned, Corey Seeger and O'Neil Cruz.

You have anything on either of those players you want to.

So I just want to talk about Seger from a strategic point.

I like him.

I like him a lot, and I like him better than the market.

I will say though, the reason he's ranked rais an FBC and I kind of get it, is that he's there's two things.

He's a four category player, which means if you draft someone like this, particularly early, it does affect your build like you have particularly is in the middle infielder you have to get those steals like elsewhere, you have to squeeze more out of your roster.

It changes things a little bit.

And then the other piece with Seger two, we pretty much know, like the odds of getting like one hundred and fifty one games like he had in twenty twenty two, who are really slim, you're realistically looking one hundred and twenty, one hundred and twenty five, I would say, like one hundred and twenty realistic.

So in he's almost weird players in a shallow league.

I kind of like him or his twelve team mix.

It's like, Okay, well, I can find a decent middle infield replacement for him for a month and ride the thirty home runs and the great production for the rest of the way.

In a in a deeper league, it's like I'm going to discount him a little bit because in an ale only I'm maybe getting some empty steals if I'm lucky, and not much else.

Yeah, it's just making googling some ages.

And it's interesting.

We've got four players in the four and five star tiers who are essentially the same age within a couple of years of each other.

You got Mooky Bets at thirty two, Lindor and Turner at thirty one, and Secret at thirty.

So it is a kind of if you are looking to get a four star, five star shortstop, you're sort of do you go you know, young with upside or do you go you know, sort of a little older with some injury and playing time concerns.

And I would say, like with and and Gunnar Henderson are the ones who are both young and you know, seem very safe.

History suggests that you should take the younger player.

Yeah, and particularly shortstop, Like like so each infield position has like historically has different age curves, and like first base has the slowest age curve, which which kind of makes sense, shortstop just has the roughest like age curve.

And it's it's just because it's such a physically demanding position.

Like what usually happens is a player moves off of it a rod and like goes to third base or goes the you know, in some case goes the outfield, or you know, just goes somewhere else.

The players who stay a short particularly like past age like thirty two.

Yes there's exceptions like Derek Jeter, but but generally it's a rough age declining.

If the player stays there and off the thing, it often impacts his offense.

So yeah, if all other things being equal, I'd rather take the younger player and then on the upside than take the older player and hope you know that there's not a degradation.

As a way of getting to the three starsier.

I'm just looking at the NFBC ADP and it's really interesting that.

Okay, so we've got currently five shorts ups going in the first round.

We've got four more going the next three rounds, and then there's a pretty big drop off.

So between pick let's see forty five fifty one and pick about one.

Oh, I don't know one twenty five or so, you only have one shortstop in the middle of that range, and it's it's Willia Domas who leads off the three stars here.

So if you want to read the names in the three star tier, and we can dig into that one.

Yeah.

So there's a lot of names here, and again this is like picks ninety one to one, so it makes sense that it's a big tier.

There's Willia Domas, Ezekiel Tovar, Jeremy Pana.

One of these days, I'm going to say Dante Boschett, I just know it.

But Bob Baschett, Dancy Swanson, zach Netto, Anthony Volpe.

I'm really blanking on like first names.

It's funny, Mason Wynn and Savior Edwards.

I think I got all those right.

Yeah, I'll think it a spreadsheet with your surnames, so that that's why I'm doing that anyway.

Yeah, So it's a it's a thick tier, and I do have some differentiation here, but I do agree with you, like there is a to me, there's a gap with a Damas and like the rest of the names in this tier, and it's funny, he's dropping a little ap Like a couple of weeks ago, he was kind of like in he was in the eighties.

Now he's in the mid nineties, so he is falling off a little.

But I do believe the market still sees that differentiation that you were talking about.

Yeah, it's it's maybe the market is reacting once they actually realized that he's in San Francisco and not Milwaukee.

But he is kind of a He's kind of the Matt Chapman of shortstops in a lot of ways where I mean, the average is not going to be great.

You'll get probably twenty something home runs, probably more steals from a Dominas, but not you know, probably teens at best, and just you know, a solid accumulator is probably the way I describe a Domas here, and that's that's not derogatory either that that can be very very helped.

So I don't know that there's much much more to say on a Damis.

You know, he aighte and two park is better for right handed hitters, but it's still on balance very much a pictures park.

So it's going to put a cap on the power numbers for sure.

Yeah, I wonder about the steals, like I wonder how much of that was him running because it's about, you know, going for a contract.

I don't think they'll disappear completely, but I just don't see a repeat there.

And that's the thing about him, which is, well, you know, if he's like a twenty three fifteen hitter with a lowish average, that's really good.

But that's clearly where the differentiation is with him and the shortsteps we were talking about earlier.

I want to hear more.

I'm not really convinced by Tovar, and you're not getting a lot of steals from him either.

I know it's the cores factor, but I think the sort of underlying metrics are not great for Tovar.

I have a little low in this tier, but i'd love to hear a case a pro to of Oar case, if you have one to make.

I mean a little bit.

I think a lot of it is is cores, and I hate it, Like I don't necessarily like drafting a player like this, particularly at this price, because yes, it does put you sort of in this weird position where you're like, yeah, I know that he's not necessarily like a good real life hitter.

I mean, the one thing I will say about him, and this is kind of a pro like if I don't like players like this, when when there are like Rockies, when their road numbers are ugly, Towar's road numbers are not thirteen home runs, you know, to sixty one batting average, same number of home runs at home, slightly better average at home.

But he's so the two things for him is that one I could see the numbers at home improving a little bit, just because that often happens at cores.

And I think the other thing too, You know, you're kind of telling you about again youth versus like you know, players being older twenty two years old.

You know, a season where he did improve his WRC plus jump from seventy two to ninety five.

You know, yeah, still below average in real life, but kind of the thing you want to see, right, like from a younger player.

He did hit the ball harder, he did see like it did again Nico blap, and his heart hit one up a little bit as barely right, went up slightly like just just the kind of improvements I want to see from a younger player, and I think that's that's what I kind of like about Tobar is that I wouldn't be surprised to see and I understand why the projections are kind of having him slip a little bit, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the opposite, like slightly more growth.

And it's essentially what we're talking about with a Damas.

So yes, the Damas is better, but if you're talking about a player and a better hitting environment who has a like about the same home run, fewer steals, but a better batting average because of the cores bump, I think that's what you could be seeing in to for that that's my case.

Yeah, No, I have a I have an allergy to picking players that have like a sub three hundred.

I get I get it.

I not not just you know, not even in non obp leagues.

I just think that caps that plus the bad lineup he's in is going to cap runs the RBI And uh, I don't know.

I mean, I think everything you say is true, and I think there's a pretty high floor, but it's just not the kind of player that that I tend to gravitate towards.

I mean, I get it.

But you know, also this, this is the difference between you know, the whatever round he's going in here, I think the the ninth round and the players who were talking about earlier, Like you're ready the point where you're willing to accept some minor flaws for all the other good stuff that you're getting.

But but yeah, you are right, Like I look at the Rockies projected line up, and it's like, good, good grief.

It's it's not pretty like it's it's pretty.

It's pretty bad is what it is.

So we got a group of players throughout the rest of the three starsier who a lot of them profile there variations on a theme I think, and so Jeremy Paanya, Bobashet, Dancy Swanson, Zach Netto.

You read them all, but I'm gonna read them again, Anthony wilt Be, Mason Winning, Xavier Edwards, And you know it's like, do you have do you move the sliders a little bit up on power, a little bit up on speed, a little bit up on average?

I yeah, I'm curious where you see any differentiation in this tier and for what reasons?

On what players?

Well, so a couple of things the players I like here, I like Jeremy Payana, and I like him because I could see him like putting up a twenty twenty if he improves the power even a little bit.

And he's kind of at that right age where he could take advantage of the Crawford boxes and do exactly that.

And the other player like is Zach Netto, but I like him because this is an eye aga in leagues with I l's where you can just stash him on an IL and not to worry about your reserve list, and you can just keep him as long as possible.

I think he's a great stash even if he does start the season late.

So those are the two players I'm kind of targeting here.

The Swanson I'm neutral on.

I could take him and leave him.

I think he's fine.

The other four I have questions on, and you know, we don't have to go over all four of them.

But really with Bishett, the challenge I have there is that he has to do one of two things, Like he either has to like run again, which I'm not sure he will, or and if he's not going to run, he's going to have to go back to being healthy and providing volume.

I mean, he could do both those things, but he's going to do at least one of those to kind of get get his value back.

He certainly could.

He's young, but the trend linsing before the injuries last year were just pointing in the wrong direction.

Yeah, Bashet's one that you know rationally.

I know that there are reason why, you know, the projections would have him around here, but I just feel like that that and I know it was it was an injury related collapse, but boy was it some kind of collapse.

And it's hard to know where he's gonna sort of find his level if he even manages to keep his job.

And I don't know that I want to.

I certainly don't think I want to make him my starting shortstop.

Curious about what you think of Volpi, because I do, like I mean, he has some of the same problems, the on base problems as as Tovar does, but he does have that lineup, he does have that park, and I think in this tier maybe he has the highest well maybe except for Edwards, but maybe the highest sort of power steals upside.

Are you what what are your hesitations on Volpi?

Well, so I don't know which hitter he's going to be, so his rookie year in twenty twenty three, he was trying to hit for power and I don't if you remember this, Like last spring he specifically said, I'm going to try for more contact, I'm going to try to improve my approach, and he did.

You know, he jumped his average up from two on nine to two forty three, which which is certainly an improvement, but we saw the effect in power.

He had twelve home runs in a park where that that's kind of almost unless you your DJ LMEYO and your grand ball rates extreme that that's kind of surprising where it's like, and that's the thing, like his flyball rate dip from thirty seven percent to twenty nine percent, so he could hit for power, like we know he did it his rookie year.

I just wonder, like, can he be a hitter.

I like the projections and I think they're sort of optimistic, just in the sense where it's like, well, yeah, he could be on eighteen twenty eight hitter for sure with a two forty average.

But that's telling me that he combined both things and everything came together.

He's young, and I don't want to simply discount him and PRAI Stobar and just you know, make this a simplistic you know, well, one's young and I like him, and one's young and I dislike him.

But I just it's just kind of the inconsistency and approach, and I'm just not sure what we're gonna get.

And I don't want to buy a vote at price and then have him hit like twelve home runs again and feel like, yay, like I didn't really get what I was like hoping for here at this price.

Okay, that's fair.

In the ru I mean I will, I will say, looking at him, I might be underestimen because that runs total last year even you know, the two ninety three round base kind of points to your lineup thing like that.

That's nice.

And if he can get on base even at like a three three ten, three fifteen clip, he could score more.

Yeah.

And I think even if you get like it's not a stretch really too, if you say, well, fifteen fifteen thirty with a two forty average and eighty to ninety runs, like, I don't know, you know, I sort of like that player in the in the ninth round, I probably yeah, I mean I definitely would take him ahead of Tovar do you have any thoughts.

We did talk a little bit about Netto before we got on tonight, and I think we both like him.

You pointed out that we really just have a lot of uncertainty about his injury and when he will be back.

So based on skills, I think I have him, you know, near the top of this this tier.

And if we knew he was going to play like one hundred and fifty games, which it doesn't look likely, I think I would I would bump him up a few spots because the way he finished last year was was pretty pretty great on a on a you know, sinking ship of a team, and I like him to sort of fill all the categories, assuming that shoulder heals properly.

Yeah, it's really funny because even like that, even with the projections kind of lopping off like about a month, a little under a month's worth of games, he's still projected like twenty twenty by almost every model.

And that's kind of what it is, which is like, well, that's the appeal, which is even if he misses time, I could still get a twenty twenty player.

Like that's very appealing.

I think the tough thing about him is just that we don't know how long the recovery's going to take, like any kind of setback.

If he's back on June first instead of like April fifteenth or May first, it's just such a black box.

There's so many questions.

And then if he is recovering from an injury, will he run less?

And remember like before last year he didn't really run like that.

That was a big surprise, like ten steals in the miners in twenty twenty two, eleven, and twenty twenty three.

I'm not saying that he can't run.

He showed he did it last year.

What I am saying is it's like, well, the combination I'm coming back from an injury just means he might have a little bit more of a yellow or red light.

So I like him a lot, but this is very much a spring training call.

And I will say like, and I've noticed his prices is kind of also very slowly and steadily climbing, because I think people are noticing what you noticed, which is you know, I'm checking here.

Yeah, he's at like one ninety nine.

He was outside of he was in the two hundreds like a little while ago.

So people are looking at and find like yeah, like maybe he's worth considering in the thirteenth round, but there definitely is a reluctance, and I get it, particularly in an FBC formats or draft and hold, where it's like, well, if I take him and it's two months of a zero that that's kind of rough in a draft and hold where you're gonna have injuries you don't even know about yet.

Yeah, and to your point about the steals, I mean it really.

I think projection systems really are throwing darts when it comes to projected steels, especially for someone who, as he said, didn't run in the minors and then you know, didn't run in his first half season with the Angels and then busted out for thirty steels.

Of course that's going to be the most recent and most heavily weighted data point, but it's easy to see a world where he goes down to like ten steals twelve steels if he's favoring that shoulder.

Okay, so I think we've done with the three stars, unless there's anyone else you want to Yeah.

Well, I just want to talk about Edwards a little bit.

So I hate comps, but I kind of get the nicky Lopez vibes here a player and Edwards was better, not great, I know, but that's the thing Edwards.

Well, I don't want to completely, you know, go down this road because Edwards had a better debut and you know, Edwards was better than miners.

But yes, it is the not great bop thing where a player who hit for great averages in the minors and make great contact and people including me, by the way, I like Nikki Lopez after his breakout and you know year in twenty twenty twenty one, was like, yes, he can make it work.

He's a great contact hit or you know, he's he can hit three hundred, he can steal bases, and he did not make it work.

And I think the lesson here is that yes, batyball metrics can be overstated, but when you are that low on your batyball metrics and when everything's blue and you're near the bottom and you really really like need to be like the outlier of outliers, and could Edwards do that?

He could, I just don't want to pay for that where he's going.

And some of this is the steels thing, Like I feel like there's too much people knocking Louisa Rise for being a one or like a one and a half category player if you include runs, and then people don't do that with with stolen based guys.

They pushed them up and they pushed them head of a rise, and it's like, well pick a lane, like if you're gonna do it with a rise, like do that with players like Edwards, like, don't overdraft them.

And I think you were telling you about this like offline with me.

As far as steals, you can find steels the for Asian pools.

So I don't like paying the premium on Edwards if he tanks because I just feel like, well, if I miss steels in my draft, I'll I'll just go out and get some later.

I mean, I'm not saying that that this is a perfect comp but it really is kind of asked for Ruie's effect right where you know you've gotten that far down in the draft and you're like, oh, this is my one knee trick to make up ground and steals.

He only played half a season, and that to me says and you know, with the battle ball metrics that you point out only one home run in three hundred and three plate appearances, I think the league's going to catch up to him and you know, knock the bat out of his hands.

I'll a Billy Hamilton, and I don't know.

I mean the average is is he's he does make contact, and you know that might booy the average because of the speed, but I don't think he's going to come close.

I mean even the projections in the two eighties, I don't know.

Man, that's that's pretty optimistic.

Yeah, who doesn't hit the ball very hard.

The expected batting average last year was two fifty two, and again I don't like to the expected slug was like one hundred points lower than what he slugged.

So this is similar to like like you know, like fit back in the day with pitchers.

I don't like to overanalyze it.

I think people put too much scrutiny on it, and people do the same with bat ball metrics.

But when there's this much of a gap between what was expected and what happened to me, that's a big red flag where it's like, well, yeah, see he might not hit two fifty two, but there there's a crash and burn potential here that it doesn't exist as opposed with the hitter, where say the bat averages like twenty points or twenty five points off, where you're like, well, like, okay, that's variance.

If it's like seventy six points off that that's that's a red flag for me.

It's funny because I have a I have an XBA point to make on a player in the next year.

But I think I I think I know who it is, So let's move on to that tier.

It's it's a smaller tier.

So the two star tier that I have four players here, said Don Rafaela, Trevor's Story, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Carlo, our old friend, Carlos Carreas.

So I think I know who you want to make your point on.

So I'm curious to hear it.

So don't look at Trevor Story's stat line.

Look look at his his XBA, and I'm just going to give you his XBAS.

This is not the player, by the way, I thought you were going to.

Okay, go ahead, I think okay.

So this is with the caveat that in.

You know, he was out for parts of many years, so these are not equivalent years in terms of bat ball number of vat of balls.

But the XBA from twenty eighteen to the present.

See if you notice a pattern to sixty six, two sixty two, fifty three, two forty five to twenty one, two ten, one ninety three.

I don't think it's coming back for Trevor.

I I don't.

I'm getting better about because I did draft Trevor Story, I think in in TGFBI last year.

And uh a couple of leagues too.

But this is me saying to myself, you know, there just might not be even a dead cat bounce for players who have who have lost it.

So can consider me very very bearish on Story this year.

Yeah.

So I think what's really tough about Story is that so much of the problem with him is injury, right, So.

Well, if you think he's going to be healthy, right right, that's so that's that's the problem.

Which is so in twenty twenty four you missed a giant chunk of time due to a shoulder shoulder surgery, and I mean really he missed like almost the whole season like last year.

So in twenty twenty three he missed a big chuck of time with elbow you know issue, and twenty twenty two he didn't miss nearly as much time, but he missed like two little you know, he had a wrist tracture at a heel contusion.

So this is kind of the problem, which is like, yes, you can say that his data ball metrics stunk because of the injuries, but the other side of that is like, well, like, so he's going to be thirty two years old.

He has not been healthy since he was a Rocky, which goes way back to twenty twenty one.

What's really weird is that his like WRC plus in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four is better than it wasn't his last year as a Rocky, but as good as a place as Fenway is to hit, it's like not that good.

So yeah, I think the thing you're hanging your hat on here with story in this tier is that he steals and like healthier.

No, he's been running, but I wonder if he should run right because is it just another is it a path for him to keep getting hurt?

So yeah, like he feels like a player where I would potentially take him here, but not necessarily be happy about it.

I'd be like, well, like okay, and frankly, going back to our second Base podcast, I think there's several this is your third mill infielder at this point in a fifteen team draft, I think i'd rather take unless I had a really low risk team.

I'm like, you know what, let's take a Trevor Story risk I need some steals the hell.

I think I'd rather take a safer second basement in this pocket of the draft than than take Story for sure.

Yeah, and possibly a multi position player if you can, if you.

Can hard to find.

But yeah, you probably thought I was gonna talk about Timer Fitzgerald.

I did because he is I mean different player, but I mean he's similar to Edwards.

And then when you look at those the averagers, the expected average, and the slug versus the expected slug, it's it's extreme.

And yes, he launch aangled.

You know, we talked about Matt Chapman last week.

Fitzgerald did even more so be in a smaller sample.

I mean he launchangled his way to extreme success.

I'm just very wary about like pop up players like this, and I had a lot of Fitzgerald last year.

I was very happy about it.

But the projections look really good outside of the average.

I'm just I kind of ranked around his ADP.

I'm kind of with the market where it's like, yeah, I don't I don't really buy it.

I don't either.

You know, he came out of the gates very hot.

I will say, the speed is real.

The speed is very real.

But you need him to play pretty much every day, you know, to get to that sort of like twenty high twenties to thirty steals, and I think you're going to be sacrificing in a lot of other categories.

And moreover, I think, you know, again, we talked about this with some other Giants players.

We don't know what the Posy regime is going to be like.

But I do believe that they will find someone else to play second base if if he really really struggles.

And you know, they have Casey Schmidt, they have some you know, guys that they can kind of rotate in from triple A.

So I don't think his job is guaranteed by any stretch.

And you know, I think, yeah, as you say, there's just a lot of risk in the hitting profile that, yeah, I don't even know if you're going to get to those those steals at the end of the day.

The other thing, too, is like there aren't a lot of teams where I would look at a right handed hitter and and worry about him being in a full blown platoon.

But with the Giants, I would worry about that where if things go sideways for him.

He's mostly playing against lefties, and it's like, well, like okay, but that that's that's a really tough roster fit, like anywhere outside of only.

Anyone, I don't know Korea, is you know, that sort of challenging player because when he played, he was he was great again, kind of a four category player but still hits the ball really hard.

Yeah, he's like a port van Seeger is what he.

Is, exactly exactly who misses more time than Unfortunately.

And Raphael, I I don't, I don't trust uh just such a bad like real life here, they caught up to him very quickly.

There are some talented minor leaguers kind of on the way to Boston.

I know he has like a big long contract, but I mean it's like as far as the annual value, you know, average ony value, it's not really a lot of money.

So I could see him getting pushed aside into a part time role pretty easily.

And I just even at this price, I don't I don't really want to chase that.

Yeah, I mean the the actual this is this is the case where the real life player is much less appealing than the fantasy player.

And I think, you know, the Red Sox can move on from a two seventy four OVP and a seventy nine WRC plus pretty quickly, especially with with is it Christian Campbell and the Roman Anthony?

Is that his name?

The yeah, Roman Anthony, one prospect.

Yeah.

And that's the thing.

That's the thing too, is that if this was oddly enough, if Raphaela was a White Sox, I might like him more where I would look at him and be like, well, like he's going to play like they don't have anyone else.

This is sort of that first division second division thing where it's like on the second division team, like you know what, whatever, Like I'll hold my nose.

I'll hope the average isn't kill me.

I'll get a fifteen to fifteen season.

I'll get a bargain.

Yeah.

This is not a this is not a warm and fuzzy for me.

Like I'm you know, I'm looking at on base percentage for for sure stops with minimum of you know, three hundred plate appearances.

He was second to last.

Only Orlando Arcia was was worse like it's it could all really go badly really fast.

So I'm just I just want to look at just quickly looking at ADP this tier, and I'm kind of assuming that.

Okay, so the story is the lowest, but right next to Krea, and this might be you know, this might be a situation again thinking about last year, are getting Korea because he fell, he just kept falling, And of all the players in this tier, that's the likeliest way I could see you know, getting one.

It would be Korea because he's just been completely cross off of everyone's draft sheet.

Yeah.

And the thing I think the reason I have him lower this year and last year I was well head of the market to shore, I'm kind of at market price on him.

It's nothing against him, but it does have more to do with the build.

I think because of our experience last year and having like Schwerber and Kara and a couple other players that didn't really run, remember, like we we had to kind of like catch up and steals, which we did.

But I don't necessarily want to like start out in that position.

So I think that's why I have a story ahead of Korea.

Like I share my con I share my concerns very much with him, But I'd rather have the potential of a well rounded player as opposed to like a zero in steals, particularly because yes, create a great first half, but I feel like if the injuries are coming, you don't necessarily know like when they're coming, and I don't want to just assume, oh, great, I'm gonna get you know, a great April through the end of June from Korea and then nothing.

I mean that could happen in May and then happens if Crey's heart on May first and he's going to be out for two months, are you keeping him on your roster?

Yeah, that's probably not Like like so, yeah, I get it, like when he when he plays, he's he's really great or he has potentially really great and he's not that old.

He'll he'll be thirty in baseball age.

But yeah, we we kind of know the pitfalls with him, like great real life player, but just sort of a frustrating fantasy player.

No, that is true, and it really is a different proposition if you have aisle slots versus NFBC, where you don't.

I will say, if you have a roster where you already have like a lot of speed, and you know in particular, like let's say, for example, you took Hoziero Mirrors or Gesism in the first two rounds and you're one of the few teams that it steals at third base and you've got all this speed.

I think taking a player like Korea late is fine because you have that speed in all likelihood locked up or a lot of what you need.

And it's like, you know what, I'm just going to take the value here because I have the speed for sure.

So there's definitely like some roster like machinations going on at this point in the draft, which.

Takes us to the last segment of the show, the one Star and Blow.

Yeah, so I'm going to read the blow this week since there's only one name one star tier, just how it worked out.

So there's one name in the one start to here seven, the zero star I'm going to out of all of them off.

So the one Star is Luis Anghelo Kunya.

The zero Star is Hasse and Kim, Brian Rocchio, brooks Lee, Trey Sweeney, another old friend, Ernie Clement, JP Crawford, and Jacob Wilson.

So I'll I think I went first last week, So it's your turn to go first.

Who do you like among those names or are you going off the board?

The board is yeah, the board is pretty bad, but off the board might even be worse.

It thins out like That's the thing about as Gray's as the top.

I think that's why I was alluding to in the two stars here.

I think for a lot of teams to play at your middle infield slot is a second basement because it really thins out here quickly unless you take two short stops, you know, in the top, one fifty or one sixty, and you're doing it that way.

I was tempted to select our old friend Ernie Clement, but I am going to and this is a very tepid endorsement.

Let me just say right off the bat, I'm going with someone who has a job, who steals, steals some bases, and an average that won't kill you switch hitter, and that's Brian Rocchio of The Guardians.

Again, I don't feel great if I'm at am I territory.

There's probably going to be a second basement that I like more.

But I think there's a chance.

And he's young as well.

Again, I think it's it's it's on the He's not a great hitter, he doesn't hit the ball hard, but he's very fast, fast, dish, but he will steal some basses.

And I don't see him being supplanted as far as his job at least early in the season.

How's that for a tepid endorsement of Rochio?

Pretty tepid.

It is tepid, But I really feel that unless you're you're going to you know, lie, you almost have to.

They could a tap an endorsement been here.

So I'm going to go be you know, because I put him here.

I'm gonna put my I guess, relatively speaking, my moneyment where my mouth is, and that is with Louis Song Heelicunya.

So the reason I have and someone has explained my rationale for having in the one star tiers.

So currently on the depth chart, he's showing up on the Mets bench, and I think that's ridiculous.

I think one of two things will happen.

He will either start in the minors or he will be at least in a job share.

And we kind of saw, like in a very brief glimpse like what he could do last year, and the steals give him a really nice floor.

I just look at the Mets right now, and yes, they could still.

By the way, is this a breaking thing?

I?

Oh, you know what it's because I'm looking at I think Fangrafts did a thing where they have last year's depth chart up and I'm looking at Alonzo.

Oh no, it looks like Peter Alonzo agreed to a two year contract.

So this this is breaking news.

On fancis page it says that two five pet alans as signed a two year deal.

So we're gonna have to scurry to Blue Sky after this.

Uh, after this.

Let me tell you, by the time you hear this, it will very much not be a.

Well, very much.

It's it's news to us.

So yes, if for some reason you're you're scared of all the other news, are living in a cave and this is where you get all your information.

We broke the story.

Congratulations, Oh good job.

Anyway, it just showed up.

I just refreshed and wrote a world and that just showed up.

Two year, fifty four million dollars.

That makes me very happy.

That makes me very happy as a Mets fan.

So anyway, looking at the Mets like even you know, and even with what's going on there, I just don't see I don't see Jeff McNeil necessarily being the reason that Acunya is not going to play, if that makes any sense.

Yes, I know McNeil made some adjustments.

I know that he's been working, was working, hit him for more power, et cetera, et cetera.

But he just really, realistically, even if he somehow can hit fifteen to twenty home runs, he realistically is not an obstacle to Louis to Acunya playing.

So I see a Couna breaking in.

I see him getting some playing time.

I see him being somebody who could potentially steal a bunch of bases.

And now that the Mets have Alonzo back, it's it's a really good lineup.

So yeah, I like Acuna a lot as an outside of the top three hundred pick to potentially steal a bunch of bases and maybe do a lot more.

Those projections for him that have like two hundred played appearances, I'd easily take the over on that.

M Yeah, and yeah, and if you double those, let's just say, and get him to four hundred played appearances, then those projections have him around twenty steals with which you know, which which is is definitely going to be something you want to buy into.

So yeah, good call, I like it.

Go mats Yep.

Yeah, it's funny because outside of Ventos and Akunya, I generally have been like lukewarm on the Mets, like I'm kind of looking I think, I said another podcast, I'm either neutral or lower on all the Mets offensive players compared to their a DP and and Ventos and Akuny are the two players I'm I'm ahead of the market on so not not a homer, just like those two players.

Thank you for listening to episode three twenty five of Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball Perspective fantasy baseball podcast.

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Well we could you believers.

That's about it.

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