To episode three, twenty six Flags Live Forever, a Baseball perspective Fantasy baseball podcast.

As our faithful listeners know, Mike Chanella and over there on the other side of the country, it is John Hackwood.

On the other side of the glass, on the other side of the country.

Yeah, I have my first draft on Sunday, and I realized that I'm I'm not fully prepared.

So I'm gonna be paying extra attention this evening as we go through some of the outfielders and tell us, tell us what we have decided to do.

Yeah for podcast, I mean, you recorded this, but we you know, probably shouldn't do this.

So a couple of things we've been doing our previews, like the week before the articles are coming out, but this is a subdecision we even talk about.

We decided to skip relievers because we don't really want to talk about that, so we're gonna do outfielders.

So we're like way ahead.

This is actually like a draft piece.

But the other thing we decided to do is so this week we're gonna talk about the five star, the fourth Star, and half of three starsier and then part two we'll finish up with a three stars heer do the two stars here and then you know, do our one star.

Favorite's like we've been doing this whole series, so that kind of works out to thirty two outfielders this week and about thirty two next week, so it's a nice even split.

Yeah, so we've kind of blown past the banter, which which is fine.

I think people are here for the it's the crack fantasy analysis.

So yeah, it's it's mid February, we're tired.

As you pointed out, there's there's drafts to be done, so and there's a lot to talk about here too, so so let's yeah, let's just dive into it.

So and again keep in mind, this is a draft.

I this is pre staff feedback, so some of these might might change.

And to segue into this, I'm a feeling that the name of the bottom of the five starts here might change.

I haven't looked at the feedback yet, So without further ado, my my draft of the five stars here.

Ten names here, Aaron Judge, Gordon Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, your Don Alvarez, Bernando Tatis, Jackson, Turio, Jaron Duran, and Ronald Acunya.

What a bunch of bombs jobs.

Terrible hate all these guys.

Yeah, do you want to?

I mean, we could talk about the Acuna dilemma first and then yeah to the more substantive analysis.

But this is really a problem with Kunya's health status and knowing or not knowing how much time he's going to miss and begin the season.

Yeah.

I think there's two problems here.

One is the health status and this is a format problem, probably as much as anything else.

You know, we we've talked about this with a little bit with zach Netto during last time with short stops.

I think the big difference here, you know, we acknowledge this with Neto.

He's not really zach Netto is not really important enough to spend too much time thinking about this.

Ronald A Kunya I know I didn't mean it that way.

Family loves him.

I really, It's going to be really sad if we get pejorative comments from the zach Neto fan club.

Yes, his family loves him, sehn.

So here here's the thing.

Here's a couple of problems with the Cunya.

One is that the projection models have him missing probably anywhere from a month to a month and a half, which I think is a reasonable assumption in all likelihood.

The bigger problem my CEE beyond that is that the models also have him stealing between thirty three to forty four bases, and I really wonder about that.

At first, I was just kind of taking those projections and plugging them into my model, and I had him way higher, and then I moved him down, and I think I might move him down again.

And really, if you're in a format like NFBC or no Reserves or no I L in particular, I think he's a really tough guy to draft this high.

The other side of that is that the power he doesn't run as much.

The power is still there.

We know what Acunya can do as a hitter when he's on, and you know, two of the last four seasons he's went on the field, he's simply been an e lead hitter.

And this is the other side of this too, And you know, we'll get to this, we get to the front of the tier.

I hate the term injury prone, but it's hard not to look at Acunya's last four years and not think, man, this this has mostly been an injured player.

Yeah, I think I'm more conservative than you because you asked me when I would feel comfortable drafting him, and I said like round five, which means, you know, yeah, basically I'm not going to get him.

But yeah, the.

Steels projection is feels very not nuanced or it's not taking into account the nature of his injury, because there's that seventy three steel year in twenty twenty three that is obviously going to be a pretty influential data point in the projections that have en like you know, anywhere from the mid thirties to the low forties.

With that me coming back, you know, it's really hard to know.

I mean, he might he might just start taking off.

But this high in the draft, and let's see, I'm going to the of the ADP here, we've got a Kunya going.

Let's see where is he going?

He's run the back end, So I kind of ranked him whipping out.

I kind of ranked him right where he's going.

Where this was sort of me throwing out my hands.

And there's someone I did this with later that we'll talk about toward the end of this podcast, where I was like, I don't know, I'm just going to put him close to ADP and we'll you know, not really think too much about this your.

Second round player.

Uh yeah, I mean I I don't feel great about that, and I you know, I know we're drafting together in the main event, and I don't want to be so conservative that I miss out on the opportunity, because I think that that might be my tendency.

But it's just a the uncertainty of knowing exactly when he's coming back and be knowing not knowing the shape of what his performance is going to look like.

Too many questions for me.

You know, you can make the case for drafting him even early in round three.

It's can be a hard self for me.

Well, you know what, you're not wrong, and I have a comparison.

We'll tell you it's in the fourth starts here, because if this players in the fourth starts here, let's kind of skip to that that comparison when we get there.

But yeah, I mean I sort of know what you're saying, which is like a lot of risk, and I do agree, like I think there's room for risks like this, and you know, a big swing like this, I think maybe splitting the difference between where both of us are like a big risk, like this on the three four turn maybe where you're like, you know what if I make this like my forty fifth, forty six pick and he's just completely a flop and he doesn't come back, well, you know, it's a sixtieth pick.

Overall, I've made bad picks, you know.

Around there, my team's been fine.

Like that's where you could have taken Nolan Jones last year or even a little bit earlier, and teams that took Nolan Jones last year who certainly did not have the upside that Acuna did, want you know what I'm saying.

So, yeah, that's probably the point, like maybe like mid fifties or sixty where you could say, you know what, let's let's take this shot here, let's shoot the shot.

We're getting a first round player with this risk.

I think that might be where I wind up landing.

So it's funny.

I think I'm talking myself out of this this five star rating as we even as we go through this, and I.

Think you're talking me into the idea that you know, and again if we if we don't get any you know, bad news before before you know, draft day, and for us, it's it's the end of March he's not going to fall to that spot at the three four turns.

No.

Well, I think the tough thing about this too is that this is not going to be a case.

It doesn't sound like a case where he's going to be playing in spring games, you know, you know, so like a player on a rehab that's coming back on say April tenth or even April fifteenth, where you know you get to see a little bit of action or you're always going right and a rehab assignment.

I just don't think that's gonna be the case.

So this just feels like a real like black box.

So yeah, I think for NFBC purposes, it's probably back into the fourth round, maybe like a little bit earlier, like mid fourth round at best.

I do think in leagues where you can just stash him in an ile spot, the values higher.

Let's talk about the healthy players.

There are quite a few really interesting ones, and I don't I don't know if you want to think Aaron Judge is not a lot to say about Aaron ju.

I've said so much about Aaron Judge, like over the years, like both on the podcast and you know, in my articles.

We probably don't need to talk much about Judge.

He'll be a top three pick, and that's that's pretty much nailed on.

We do have an interesting by ADP.

It's going Soto, Tucker, Tatis, and Carol picks seven, seven through ten, and then Rodriguez, Julia Rodriguez at around pick thirteen.

You have Carol at the top of this group.

We've got a history with Corbyn.

Carroll recent history.

But yes, yeah, and I think you know, as we've been talking and leading up to the draft season, there's you know, there's there was so much, so many encouraging signs in his second half, and not just with the speed but with the power.

I think most notably a five to sixty eight slug in the second half that gives you hope.

I mean, even though his projections are mostly sort of low to mid twenties and home runs like you know, thirty homers is not out of the question if if that slug is even mostly real.

Yeah.

The other thing I think too though about Carol, so I want to point them out before we go any further.

I brought this up at the end of the season, but I still hear people talking about his shoulders, so that that was debunked on one of the Rota Wire podcasts us in like mid October.

So I can kind of understand why nobody knows this.

Mike Farren, who I think is MLB Network Radio, I could be wrong.

And you know, yeah, so Mike Farren, who you know as close to Dinebacks knows this stuff, said that you know he had he had talked to Carol and talked to the clubhouse.

So it was a mechanical issue.

Like Carol, because of worry of injury, altered to swing in the first half, changed the approach, and that's why he didn't look right.

He wasn't hurt.

He was trying an approach that just didn't work for him.

So you look at the second half, and you know, all the stackass data was not only way up, I mean not only up from the first half, it was up from twenty twenty three.

So to your point about his power, yeah, I could see thirty home runs as a more likely outcome than the twenty two eight last year.

But if he doesn't do that and goes back to the twenty five in twenty twenty three, that's obviously fine.

I think the average goes up like I think the two thirty one we saw last year given his speed and the babbitp is kind of fluky, like remember his his contact didn't like it straight, Yeah, right, didn't go up.

It pretty much stayed the same.

And then finally, the steel projections for me are the thing that really look low.

I think more than the power.

If he's going to hit about two sixty, which is where the models have him at, and get on base like about thirty five percent of the time or thirty you know, four point five percent of the time, I think you're looking at like forty five to fifty steels, And yes, steels are variable.

Maybe he doesn't get there, but like outside of Ellie de la Cruz, there aren't I don't know if there's another hitter that I'm gonna think.

Yeah, fifty steels is a realistic outcome or maybe a quasi realistic outcome.

I mean, regardless of what that number is, you are drafting as steals anchor.

And the thing that we haven't talked about yet, which might be his most dominant category as runs.

Yeah, two hundred and thirty seven runs over the last two seasons, and that's you know, factoring in the really, really poor start to twenty twenty four.

We don't talk about runs much as as a have you know, a sort of analytical community.

And it's one of the five categories.

And I think hitting.

Big one too.

It's a big one in hitting near the top of a lineup that is rock solid.

I gotta say, you know, the d Backs look just fine.

So you know, it's it's I think I'm closer to you on having him at the top of this run of outfielders than I am with adp having him at the the end of this run.

And we're talking again about four picks.

So it's it's, you know, a huge difference between any of these guys.

But yeah, I was gonna say, I've got all these guys with the exception of Totis like in my top fifteen, like and we to tease, is probably the one like guy here that I'm definitively like, you know, down on like everyone else.

Like I've got I've got Jay right higher.

We can talk about him, but yeah, like from Carol, Tucker Soto Alvarez, it's like, yeah, I mean I'm a pick or two higher or lower.

It's just not really a big deal.

Yeah, I think for me, I have Tucker and Carroll just about even But you know, I could go funny, you know, after all of the whaling and nashing of teeth last year that we did about Corbyn Carroll, here we are.

Well.

Psychology is a fun thing.

Like if he had had a bad September, I think a lot of people, including us might not have even noticed as much.

And I'm like, well, I get a bad month.

So to tease, I mean, I see, I think I see why you're lower.

On to tease, it's just, you know, the uncertainty about his health and about running.

Do you want to say a little more about why you're lower than the market?

Yeah, I mean that's that's most of it.

I'm not necessarily convinced.

Yes, he's only twenty six, but I look at the projections of time around twenty steals for the most part, and that kind of looks more realistic than the twenty five to thirty you know, he was getting in twenty twenty one.

In twenty twenty three, he's missed a lot of time.

I get the upside, like I could see him hitting thirty thirty five to forty home runs with a good average.

I think the other thing that I'm a little wary of with to Tease too.

Beyond the health is that lineup and the theme context, and that that's why, like I'm just probably bearish on nearly every Padre or every Padre hitter where it's like, yeah, it could work out, but that could be a pretty ugly situation, and there could be more trades.

Like I have a feeling that there's going to be a trade like they've done in the past where they ship somebody out this month, maybe probably more restically next month, and that team looks a little bit weaker.

So I you know, when I say I don't like to Tease, I see him as more of a second rounder than a first rounder.

Was it was interesting because speaking of Rhoda Whire, I heard Jeff Erickson and Fred Zinky making this like kind of very point, and I think Fred was a stronger voice, and yeah, I'm with Fred, Like I really I think the Tease is a really solid player.

I just see him as more of a second rounder, and I think people are going to look at that twenty twenty one and think, yeah, he can do that, or even look at his twenty three and go yep, just stretch it out.

One hundred and fifty hundred fifty five games, even if he's healthy, I think we're looking at more of one hundred and thirty five hundred and forty game player.

I just don't feel comfortable projecting him go out to one hundred and fifty or more.

Yeah, I agree with pretty much all of that.

To flip the narrative a little bit, you are higher on Hui Rodriguez than the market right now.

And I will just say one thing.

I mean, I think that in looking into Julio's stats, his sort of underlying stats is like x stats in twenty twenty four were pretty close to what they were in twenty twenty three.

But to your point about Tatise and the Padres, like that Mariners lineup that park, you know, it does maybe put a cap on what he can do.

Although you know, as far as talent goes, like he is certainly one of the most talented players you know in Major League Baseball.

He's still very young.

So I think I agree with you.

I definitely am looking for a bounce back statistically.

But do you want to say any more about like where you see his outcome, like in the context of being in Seattle.

Yeah, So one thing, I think one big difference You're right about a lot of the contextual stuff.

He's two years younger than Tatise, which which is sort of surprising, right, Like, I think you might look at both these players as being about the same age.

So he's entering his age twenty four season.

Now, I don't want to say that.

I think for years there was a almost a mythology of like, oh, players like you know get better in a linear way as I get older and older.

We know that's not true.

I just think like what we saw last year from j Rod was the floors.

So I'm kind of looking at him thinking I'm expecting growth.

I'm expecting some improvement.

I think we're to see something closer to the thirty thirty season.

Keep it up in twenty twenty three.

Yes, the runs of the runs batted in or are going to suffer a little bit, but frankly that could happen to your on Alvarez too, who you know is kind of here and admitted the Alvaas is a better average bet but without the steals.

So that's kind of what I'm looking at.

I'm looking at Alvas, I'm looking at jay Rod.

I'm going, well, it looks like kind of a similar bet to me, except you're getting or steels popsentially a lot more steals with Jay Rod.

And that's that's kind of my thinking, and I feel like I'm just sort of betting on the player here.

I'd be really honestly shocked, but I'd be really surprised if like twenty twenty four was close to the new normal.

I think there's a projections are a little light on him.

I see a thirty thirty player.

Yeah, I totally agree.

I'm looking at Steamer projection thirty homers, twenty eight steals, but the runs in RBI are kind of splitting the difference between twenty three and twenty four.

But here's the thing.

He was a third round player last year, like in that year in the context with the numbers he put out and still delivered third round value bad in a down season.

So it's like, well, if I take j Rod at this point and he's a third round play, he does this again, he's a third round player.

Yeah, I'm not gonna be happy with it, but I'm not going to cry about it either.

Looking at the the segment of the five starsier that's currently going in the second round, so you've got Trio.

Well you've got Jordan uh and then Trio and then Duran.

The order that they're going in right now is Trio, Jordon, and Duran.

So I don't know, I think there are It was good, you know, Jordon.

It's it's really the question of you're drafting a player, an outfielder here.

It's not going to really steal you more than a few bases, and you know, there might be some lingering health concerns, although I think maybe he's put a lot of that to uh to bed and he is, as far as I read today, coming to camp in perfect shape with no issues.

So that's amazing, huh.

Healthy heading into the twenty twenty five season.

Mind, you know, you know, I feel I feel like players are either like coming into camp, like you know, we say this every year, either completely healthy or they're completely broken and there's still little ground like that's the not like clearly healthy but more healthy than they've ever been, or oh no, there's an injury we didn't know about, you know, and sound the alarm.

But yeah, so I'm I'm a little bit higher on alvaas than his ADP, which I'm showing is eighteen of the number I just pulled, and I think this is overall not an outfield obviously Duran's twenty trio seventeen.

I think I have churand around like right where they're at, so, which just it's just wor about of having Albers a little higher.

And what it is it's the acknowledgement of the fact that even with the time he's projected to miss, he's pretty much the best power beton outfield outside of Judge and Sodo like that.

That's really what it is.

It's like and the average projects out too.

Yeah, so that's what it is.

That's all.

I have him way up.

I think I have him like as like a one two turn guy, which which by the way, is where he was going last year.

So it's not even really me saying, oh, I'm high on Alva, it's me saying, well, you know he did it last year.

For all the injury worry, talking about a guy who has hit thirty home runs like every or more every year for the last four years average the last three years two ninety three or higher.

Yes, he doesn't run, but he is just this consistent top of the pops four category player.

I think I mentioned this too.

Lesser and j Rod that the lineup or the weekend lineup is and to hurt him a little bit in the counting categories.

But you're still talking about an elite player.

And yeah, I'm a little worried about like his health and and but that's more of a long term worry.

I also would suspect, you know, and I'm I gotta go look at the Beastras depth chart, I would suspect he's going to mostly DH and maybe play some outfield.

Something weird about albais, if I remember correctly, is that he hits much better as an outfielder, which is kind of a weird thing about him.

So, I mean, he's not a slouch as a DH, but I think if I have him, I kind of hope that he's healthy enough to play the names in the outfield.

I mean, so currently they've got and you realize that, especially not re signing Alex Bregman, this this team is not particularly deep because they've got an outfield of Ben Gamble, Jake Myers, and Chas McCormick with your don at the DH.

Although you look at the bench and you're like, well, well, who who's really gonna DH?

Among victorre Kratin, John Singleton, Russio Dubon or Taylor Tramuel.

So I guess Jacob Melton I think will be up at some point, you know the Prospect podcast.

But I think there's some names, like you know, down on the you know the farm that will like eventually be up.

Like Melton in particular, is an outfield prospect who you know, one hundred ninety two played appearances in Triple A.

I have to think he's he won't be up immediately, but he'll he'll be in that outfield picture at some point.

You know, there's a couple like names that aren't quite as good, but you know similarly it might be up.

So yeah, I I agree with you that this does not look great, but the Astros are one of the better teams as far as bringing players up where you're like, huh, they actually kind of, you know, piece something together.

I also think, you know, and we can talk about him in the next podcast.

I think Chas McCormick is being written off like way, like too quickly, like he had a down year admittedly, but he was really good in twenty twenty three.

I don't resell him, but I think he's a little bit better than some people are giving him credit for.

That's fair, and I don't think Jake Meyer is a total zero either offensively.

But lest things to say about Alvarez I think is it could be a nice way to start constructing your offense if you get any kind of speed.

I mean, looking at the back half of the first round with the top of the second, it's hard to see like if Carol falls, you know, if either Tucker Tatis falls, Lindor's around there.

So if you do could grab some speed with your first round pick, then you know, following that up with someone like Alvarez who doesn't give you speed but gives you literally everything else, it can be a nice start to your offense.

Yeah, you know, it's funny like j Rod and Albras off a current ADP is the pairing and yeah, yeah, you don't mind start even two alphas And I really don't like that.

That's kind of an interesting pairing and that you're not you're not getting a mega speedster, but you're you're getting speed and you're getting lots of power with those picks, and you're getting your leg up on average two.

Do you have any think about Cheerio or drown I I'm moderate.

I'm sort of that at at costs.

I think with with both of them, I'm maybe a little more excited about.

I'm at cause with both of them, I think, I want to say, IM more excited about Durram, But I think with Dram, because of the stolen bases, he has a higher floors.

Boston's a solid lineup.

Solid lineup.

They added, Yeah, I look at Churiot, I'm kind of well, I I like him at this price, but I also think that this is probably I want to say it's a ceiling, but this is probably he's more likely to be a second rounder.

I think some people are making this big thinking well, he could be the Nexticunia.

It's like, well he could, but how many players are the Mexicunia.

So I think he's fine at this price.

I just be prepared to be maybe like slightly disappointed as opposed to being like extremely extended.

Of course, I thought that last year about Alan la Cruz and Gunnar Henderson, So what do I know.

Well, also, Churio's kind of set up for the Corbyn Carrol narrative, I mean, which turned out okay, but you know that second year drop off.

I think I'm still kind of enticed by the nine to fourteen ops in the second half where he brought some of that power to pair with the speed.

But yeah, you know, if if either of them gets to a place in the middle of the second round, I'm happy, happy with either.

Yeah, me too.

You know one thing about this show, we often don't talk about other positions, but there are so many outfielders and shortstops like going like in the first two rounds, and particularly shortstops going in the first round, that there's a good chance if you take like Churio and Deron, Like what you've done is you've taken a shortstop in round one, and you know, kind of follow that up with with an outfielder in in round two, like the you know, you could wind up with say like a I mean he's both but like a mookie, BET's a bets drawn like pairing, for example.

I wouldn't hate that.

Okay, the first two rounds are always nice, like like these discussions are more fun than like, you know, like I said, oh, these are bums, like they're they're terrible.

It's more the duance of well, like you know, how much do you like this player in the first round versus somebody.

Else's always when I laugh when you know people back back in the classic days of baseball fantasy baseball Twitter, which I I do not know what the state of fantasy baseball Twitter is because.

I'm not going on going back there.

And neither of you.

Blue Sky is finding it's its legs, but it's it's not quite as robust.

But when people would post their screenshots of their first like two rounds or first three rounds, and you know, and then comment comment or replies would say, oh, that's amazing start wow you really, I'm like, how could you not?

Like I hope so I hope you take a twenty third round or like the third round, like.

Impossible to push things up.

Yeah, fourth star tier, uh I, I'll read the four star tier.

Give you a little break here.

We start with Jackson Merrill, then t Oscar Hernandez, Michael Harris, the second Wyatt Langford, Lawrence Butler, James Wood, Brenton, Doyle Luis, Robert, Anthony Santander.

And that's the tier.

And a lot of names here that maybe we would not have anticipated being in the four star tier this time last year.

Yeah, this is a really like mostly like young like dynamic group and players who you know either like Barrell or Butler or would like emerge last year, immerging part of a season, or you know a player like Harris where it's like, well, like he was really close, really close, and he's still like just right on the verge.

So and even someone like Breton Doyle, Yes he's corsiated, but you know, he certainly deserves the spot here from a fantasy perspective.

And then why at Langford.

So yeah, this is a mostly young, dynamic tier where it's like, yeah, these are players who they all obviously can't because they can be a five star player, but many of these players could wind up in you know, being a five star player like first round, second round or next year without a doubt.

Yeah.

At the top of the tier is Jackson Merril, And in a way you could kind of look at him, along with Cheerio and Doron as kind of the the young guns that had breakouts.

I really like what I see from Meryl.

I think we might slightly have a slight divergence of opinion.

I'm mostly looking at at a ball profile that just looks really solid.

You pointed out the you know that he might you don't believe in it quite as much.

And to your point with Tatis, the lineup is likely to be pretty disappointing.

So I do think and I think we do agree on this that maybe at the back end of the second round is maybe a little high.

If you are paying that kind of price, you are probably paying for his his ceiling.

So I don't know if you want to give the throw cold water on Merrill or at least Temper.

I mean Temper has like so he was like a twenty four to sixteen player last year.

That's kind of where the projections like have him about twenty five fifteen.

And he's the guy who wanted to bring up in context of Acunya, so you know, to back this up a little bit, you know, just looking at Acunya.

So we agree the steels projections on Rob Lacune are I was ridiculous but over the top, right.

So let's say that if instead of like forty forty five steals, would you say twenty steals are realistic for like the Diminishedicuni who runs less.

Than even if he misses six weeks.

I think that's close to a floor.

So essentially your Ecunya, if the home run projections sold is a twenty five to twenty player with a better average or better projected average and a better lineup.

And this this is what I'm looking with Merrow.

It's like, I think he's fine.

I just see him as a mid second round.

It's sort of similar to Turio, where you're you're bidding on that growth and I just see more of that growth opportunity with Suro.

Yes, Turio is going like nine picks earlier.

I don't want to, like, you know, say it's the same thing.

I just see Meryl as more of like, yeah, he's he's kind of fine as a third rounder.

I just don't like pushing him in the second round.

Yeah, I think I agree, And you know, it is a little bit of maybe it's a you know, a bias to say it, but he wasn't the prospect that that Turio was.

And you wonder about these pop up guys, and even though I think it's his underlying metrics look really solid, maybe you're looking at a player who is who just steps back a little bit from what was really a pretty fantastic rookie season.

Anyone, anyone else in this tier that that you want to talk about, You know I'd like this tier quite a bit, with a couple of exceptions, but certainly in the top part of this tier, I think there are quite a few exciting players.

And we've talked about maybe, you know, leaning away from older players that we were expecting bounce back seasons from and maybe looking more toward the younger players.

And so I'm wondering if there's anyone here that you're particularly excited about.

Moren's Butler.

I really like him.

I like the bad I like he hits the ball like really hard, and he he's ultimately I think as he gets older, is going to have like some like on base issues, but he's still young enough that he won't.

He's fast enough that he could run more than he did last year, like he had eighteen steels, which wasn't nothing.

And he's moving away from from Oakland.

And so here's the thing about this, and we said another podcast, I don't think Sacramento is necessarily profiles as a hitters saven like some people think Okland that's what it is.

It is not Oakland.

I think people are forgetting that part, which is even if Sacramento is not a hit or save and even if it's a neutral park.

It's it's it's a move up from Oakland.

So so that's what I'm looking at.

I like Butler a lot here.

I think he's I've got him like around round and a half ahead of it.

I'd have to look, but ahead of his current ADP.

And I really, I really want to have him on as many teams as I possibly can.

So, yeah, you know, you asked who I like here, He's probably the guy that I really like.

I think the other guy I really like this guy at the back end of the tier who we had some success with last year in Anthony Santander.

Yes, he's an average risk.

That's why he's in the four star tier.

But even if he, you know, regress a little bit, you're still looking at thirty to thirty five home run power, which doesn't sound impressive, but it really was in the would have been in the context of last year.

I think people like underestimate how difficult it is to get even that level of power from a hitter.

Just on Butler real quick.

He did improve in some ways in the latter part of the season, mostly notably at a sub twenty strikeout rate, so strikeout rate in the second half and that to me is as a really strong indicator that there's a pretty solid floor here with Butler.

Yeah.

The thing I'm impressed by over I heard this on Rates and Barrels.

You know, sarahs was talking about this, the fact that like Butler came up, was hot, struggled, and then made an adjustment, and you know pretty much like after that and then came back again.

I mean, that's a game of cat and mouse that can keep happening.

But I like hearing that as opposed him ending this season where it's like, well the pitchers adjusted, he struggled, and we don't know what's going to happen.

Also projected to lead off, which is for an almost said Oakland, for a Sacramento team that is not as terrible as one might think, at least in the top half of that that lineup.

It's not it's not totally Barren Santon dare you say average risk, But to look at his averages over the last several years, you know there's going back to let's say, twenty nineteen, two sixty one to sixty one, two forty one, fifty seven, two thirty five.

Last Yeah, he's but these are not pages that are going to sink you.

You know, it's not like a Kyle Schwarber hitting subject.

What I should have said, he's a risk in this tier, like compared to some of these other players.

You're right, Like he's not Schwarber, He's not Joe Gallo, hey o.

You know, he's not like somebody who's so like down at the bottom where you're like, yuh, you know, he's just not a good player.

And now the thing too, is like him being in Toronto with the contract he has, like we know he's going to play like he's not going to you know, he's not in a crowd of Baltimore situation where he slumps and and does badly.

He might wind up like on the bench, like he's going to play.

Yeah, slide upgrade in the park per stat Cast park ratings.

Let's see who else.

Okay, I want to talk a little about Brenton Doyle.

So Breton Doyle maybe stands out as someone and this could be my anti Rockies bias coming through, but I'm still a little wary of the his previous k rates.

Like so last season was the first time since rookie ball, So this is going all the way through the lower and upper miners he had, he ran thirty plus percent k rates, and then he also did in his first season in Colorado got it down to around twenty five ish percent last year.

That could be sustainable.

I don't know.

Brenton Doyle is a rocky and therefore I am not enthusiastic about his ability to even leading off, which but Black announced that he was probably going to be the leadoff hitter.

You know that maybe more runs, but not a ton more given what's behind him, the RBI are probably not going to be spectacular.

I just don't see a lot more that Brenton Doyle can do beyond last year.

Yeah, I do agree, And and the thing about him is, I think ADP is kind of accounting for that, because if you look at last year, you know, in terms of the full season numbers like he and Corby and Carrol statistically or the Spider Man pointing mean like they had similar output.

Now we know that that doesn't mean they're the same player, like Carol has a much higher like real life ceiling.

I think, like I said, I think ADP is is accounting for that.

Doyle is at seventy five.

I think that's like right or around where I have him.

So to me, the proposition is like, and truthfully we've talked about this that what that really means is unless a draft is chalk for the first five rounds, which it won't be, it means I'm more likely to take him in the sixth that I am like at the five sixth term where it's like okay, sure, Like if you know, he happens to fall to the middle end of the sixth, I'll take him.

I'm not pushing him up and be like ooh, I've got to get this power speed combination.

And you know, the other thing I look at is very interesting because similar numbers home and away except for the batting average.

But that average was like two eleven.

So he is sort of a player where I think it worse because it was you know, again, not a bad average overall, because of course, but sort of a player.

It's like, well, if he tails off at all, I don't know how much he could be a liability on the road.

I might not want to start him.

I think that's fine if it's a player like Ryan McMahon outside of pick two hundred, where you're like, yeah, sure, okay, like that's that's late versus this early where if he tails off, you're like, oh, I've got a course player only who I took in the first you know, in the fifth or sixth round.

So yeah, I get it, like I'd be okay with him.

He's certainly not a target, and truthfully, I hope I don't have a decision like late sixth round where it's like, ooh, he fell and I have to take him right now?

Going what a few picks after Lawrence Butler, it looks like, yeah, Butler six picks after Butler, about ten picks ahead of Luis Robert.

I'm very aware of Luis Robert this year, and we don't have to spend much time on it, but just the inconsistency, the fact that he's never really been able to put together maybe one what you consider full season in his time with Chicago.

Are you at all Are you as wary as I am about Robert?

I mean not as wary, but I surely like am not like super jazz or excited about him.

And I think, you know, we don't need to like go into like a long thing about this.

It's mostly the reasons you stated, like he I think he needs.

This is like kind of obvious, but he needs a change of scenery.

I don't think he likes playing for the White Sox, and who can blame him, right, And that's the thing, Like you look at his second half numbers outside, it looks like he decided to do the second half was just run and he kind of gave up on everything else.

So I don't want to like put too much way in the second half, but it's possible you're just getting some empty steals with a little bit of power.

And then there's the ever president jury risk.

So would I take him here?

Maybe?

But one thing about like the the first like six rounds or so, I think I don't think you want to.

I'd rather take the Acunia risks and the Robert risk where it's like, hey, if Akunya works out, like maybe he's a first round or and if he doesn't work out, okay, he's a little disappointing.

Whereas with Robert, if oh, the risk here is that you're you're getting like sixty your seventy games and you just kind of wasted a pick in the sixth round.

So yeah, I think I'm I think I actually had Rober a little bit higher, but you you've talked me out of him.

I think you talked yourself out of him.

But yeah, he can run all he wants, but he still cannot run away from the South Side Chicago unless he's he's traded.

Yeah, it's a depressing team context too.

That's the thing.

I think the only the only hitters, I mean, probably the only players on the White Sox worth drafting anything, but Ale only or Robert and Andrew Vaughn like that.

That that's it.

And yeah, there's some prospects on the way that could change that, but they won't be up right away.

All right.

Should we get to the top half of the three star tier, Yeah.

Let's let's do that.

And you did such a nice job, I'm going to have you read that again.

Oh, thank you, Mike.

We've got Saye Suzuki, Brian Reynolds, Christian Yelich, Randy Arosa, Rena Adelas, Garcia, Riley Green, Dylan Cruz, Josh Low, Pete Crow Armstrong, Ian Happ, Mike Trout player I believe I've heard of before, Tommy Edmond and yes On, I don't know how does he say Jason or I think it's Jason Jason.

I think so.

I'm gonna while we're talking.

I'm gonna look that up on Baseball Reference and if I'm wrong, we'll correct it.

Because we don't want I'll tell you.

I'll tell you an anecdote.

This is off topic, but relates to my home league.

So, uh, there's a player in my home league, Andrew.

Hey, Andrew, if you're listening, who flies up from LA and every year for our draft up in eastern Washington, and he's he's very obsessed with the Harvard Westlake High School baseball program, and which has turned out it's a shocking number of Major leaguers like Max Free, Lucas Gilido, Jack Flaherty, Pee Crow Armstrong.

So every time any of these players from Harvard Westlake, this very very elite school, expensive school in West LA, every time a player comes up in the auction, you can just bet and be like Harvard Westlake and so Pete Crow Armstrong Harvard Westlake shut out.

That's really interesting because usually it's like people are you know, major league teams where they're you know, non local, and it's like, why are you bidding up these cardinals or royals, And it's like, oh, it's because you're you're from the area.

Originally Okay, well he's not even.

He's from he's from Berkeley, and uh I think he's he's going to send his kids to Harvard Westlake and so anyway.

The list, it's it's yeah, it's a good, good pitching list, and yeah, yeah for sure, lots of yeah, lots of first rounders too, so you know all of them pictures except Kerr Armstrong.

So yeah, that's a that's something you don't want to start with her Armstrong, did you?

Or you just I don't like ch Armstrong.

I'm down well, so I I.

Will say something since you brought her arms Strong up, is that he's going like two rounds early, earlier than than Josh Lowe, and they look really similar to me, Like, I, yes, Lowe has the platoon wrists, but honestly, so does Kirl Armstrong, even if the Cubs don't necessarily have an obvious platoon partner.

And I have greater concerns about Kerr arms wrong offense than I do about lows So I am not even And yes, I like low this year, I'm backing on him, but I think it's more I don't see like the two round difference between the two players.

So my comp was going to be someone three rounds later, and that's not someone we'll talk about in detail tonight.

But he looks also a lot like Lane Thomas and the thing about Korarmstrong, it's one of those cases where the fact that he's such a good defensive outfielder could actually work to your detriment because he's likely to play, you know, in centerfield every day, and you know that could lead to some some you know, problems with his average, and I don't see a lot of power there.

So I do think there's a bit of hype, there's a bit of gas for Charmstrong that I'm not really feeling.

Yeah, I think that the steals and this is similar to low like the steals give give him a decent enough floor where I don't really necessarily see him being a liability here.

But it is that thing, like my philosophy of steals now, especially given the rule change, I'll give it how many how many steals are available both during the draft and free agency?

Is that you kind of I think it's toward the back, like when you get around pick two hundred a little bit earlier.

That's what I'm starting to look at.

Players that are all or mostly steals, like well, sure, I'll take one of these players here.

I just don't like doing it as early as like Armstrong is going like that and I'm going back to look, you know see, whereas his ADP actually is like yeah, it's one thirty four like that, that just feels like a bit of a reach to me, Like I think I'd almost rather have like you know, he's going to pick after his teammate Ian Hap, where it's like, yeah, you know, help, it's kind of boring, but I know what I'm gonna get.

I'm gonna get something like like in every category the average is going to be great, but it's not going to kill me, And I think i'd rather have that here.

I think Halp is probably like my value pick in this part of the tier for for the reasons that you mentioned.

He's boring, but it's like four category production, you know, not not off the charts, but he will give you double digit steals home runs in the twenties.

And the thing about Hap is that his projections for runs in RB I are I'm pulling up his his projections now they're yeah, I guess they're mostly in the eighties.

I still think there may be on the I mean, he is consistently over the last two seasons put up both runs and RBI in the eighties.

Some of the projections have him in the seventies.

For he walks a lot like that.

That does.

That's kind of the thing about him is that he's he's a he's a great great, but he's a solid on basse guy.

And with him in nearly every opp league, I'm in, Yeah.

Yeah, he's a he's a I target and leaves like that for sure, where it's like, okay, the down obp year is three forty like that that'll play.

Yeah, so I do.

I mean, I think this is where boring is actually kind of a good thing.

I think Reynolds is sort of the better version of boring that.

Well I was going to bring off, like Brian Reynolds is.

I was thinking of this and I should have put this on my articles.

I didn't, but I'll use it here.

Brian Reynolds is the practically perfect seventh round pick.

Like that's what he is, right, Like, he's a guy where it's like, no, you don't want to put him into the four star.

There's a reason that he doesn't belong there.

But he's someone in the in the seventh round who's just perfect and I think he's particularly good if if you already if you have like one risk on your team, for example, where you're like, oh, you know, I took a shot here, whether it's a hitter or pitcher, you know, I took a big swing.

You know it's going to work.

You're just like, you know what, I am going to take this player?

And Brian Reynolds, who you know, No, he's not going to light up the world, and it seems like really unlikely that you know, he's going to do anything like particularly spectacular.

But you know, you look at that projection, you know, twenty twenty five home runs, eighty runs, eighty runs, bat at in or so, ten steals like two sixty five average or so, that's that's okay, Like, yeah, that's sort of the key to this tier, which is you're you're already at the point with outfielders where you're not shooting for you're not shooting the moon, You're just looking for a solid all around player.

Yeah, especially if you took you know, some risks earlier in the draft with some of the younger players.

Yeah, really like Reneald's here, The sneaky thing here is that he's still in double digits the last two years twelve and twenty, twenty three and ten.

Last year projections have him eight or nine steals.

But it's not nothing.

I mean, when you're getting you know, decent four category production elsewhere, the you know, high single digit steals can actually help.

Yeah, you know something funny about this though we talked, you know, I'm just talking about how like safe Renalds is.

This is an interesting like first half of the tier in that for the most part, like a lot of these players, there's like much more volatility, right, Like I look at a lot of these names, and I'm like, well, some of these players could very well be in the four star tier, but there's a good reason that they're here.

Like Christian Yealich is probably the most obvious one where it's like, well, you know, sure, if Christian Yalich like plays you know what, one hundred and thirty, five hundred and forty games, is there any doubt he's going to be a four star player.

But it's like, well, you know, you you look at him, and you kind of look at his you know, yes, he's played one hundred and fifty four, you know, one hundred forty four games before last year.

But you kind of look at the age and everything else and you're like, well, I don't necessarily want to bank on that though he's done it before.

He just doesn't feel like a player to me who is going to particularly like age gracefully and already you know, it looks like he might not be ready for opening day because of his back.

Bad back.

Those the only two words to hear.

Also be bad back in like thirties, like in particularly age thirty three.

I like that back in twenty five, I might be like, well, like, okay, like you're younger, you can manage it, Like maybe it's it's not the biggest thing, but yeah, bad back and this point of the age curve, I don't have a great dealing.

In a back that's been bad for a while, like he's he's you know, it's been a chronic recurring thing.

It's interesting to have Sezuki a haad of Reynolds.

I don't want to necessarily get into a debate, but they're they're pretty similar, and you know, in a way, I think you could argue that Reynolds is maybe a better bed, especially since Suzuki himself has had some health challenges in the three years he's been in the majors.

I don't know, they're really close.

No, I mean they're they're really close.

If anything, I think, uh, Suzuki is I've got them teeny tiny closer than the market does.

Suzuki's eight picks ahead of Reynolds.

I think I have them like, let me look like three or four, like a three or four pick difference.

So yeah, it's it's kind of a actually, I'm sorry, I have a one pick difference for me.

So for me, it's like a coin flip.

Whereas the market is saying like, oh, you know, Suzuki's better, I think what it's a nod to here, is that Suzuki kind of does you know, have more upside if you know, to that point he manages to to stay healthy.

But yeah, that that's that's kind of a big if, which is, well, he hasn't necessarily stayed healthy.

He's always missed a little like time here and there.

He's never played more of her thirty eight games.

He's never had more than five hundred and eighty five plate appearances.

I think that's the thing, though, is that Suzuki, even the diminished version of him, if he misses about a month, he's putting up very similar numbers to Reynolds and I and with a better batting average.

And I think that's what it is, which is like, well it deeply you might want Reynolds where the replacement, you know, value replacement isn't there.

I think even in a fifteen team mix where you can get somebody, I think you're better off with Asuki.

Okay, yeah, it's a coin flip, but it's.

Yeah, it's I think the market is slightly a little higher on Suki than I am, and like we're I literally the same like ranking for Renolds that the market does, and no I don't.

I don't peak except with the Kunya where I cheated or you know, Mike Trout, I also cheated.

I had him ahead and I was like, no, I'm just going to rank him where ADP is and be a coward.

So do you want to talk about any other players here in terms of their risk or any players that you are particularly excited about.

And or Mike Trout, Well, let's see, I talked a little bit about Low already, so we probably don't need to, you know, talk much on talking terms of Armstrong.

I think the player, I'm excited, but the pair of players I kind of like, and I think there's a little bit more in the tank, and the market is probably over correcting a little bit or Randy or Rose Raina and at at least Garcia, And yes, I see the warts, like particularly with Garcia and and the risk with him, but in terms of what they can produce, like Garcia still has like a ton of power potential.

I can see him easily bouncing back to like thirty home runs.

I think the average was was a little bit fluky.

I'm not say he's hit like, you know, two sixty, but I think he's going to bounce back to about two forty forty five.

And I kind of like him as like a power pick.

I'll think the Rangers' lineup is going to be better.

We should boost the run and RBI totals.

And then you know, a Rose Raina is just really really funny because I'd still just see in him somebody who's kind of that guaranteed like twenty twenty player that he was with with the Rays.

And yes, he's you know, we talked this with with Jay Rod.

He's you know, he moved to where he's in a terrible park.

But but what's really weird about him is that his numbers were actually worse with the Rays than they were in Seattle, and he kind of got better as as the year went on.

So I he's only going to be thirty.

I can easily see him bouncing back to kind of where he was, with maybe the average being a little bit lower.

So yeah, give me a twenty twenty player here, I'll take the slight average hit like all day long.

I think I am significantly more positive about a Rose Arena than Garcia.

And with Garcia, I mean I think I think I have too.

So yeah, he's coming.

He's coming in with some knee concerns.

He was a you know, a late bloomer.

He's already he's gonna be thirty two in a few weeks.

I just don't know that I want to, you know, I I hear what you're saying about the possibility of a bounce back, but I could equally see, especially someone who runs, you know, fairly high strikeout rates, I could see another season of a two twenty ish sh average, you know, And I don't know how long the the what's left of the steals is going to hang around, especially.

With a bad I don't think I'll run much.

I would, I would say, yeah, sure, So what what you're banking on here is what you're hoping for is probably thirty home runs with with like a two forty forty five average, And yeah, kind of someone someone who's I'm.

Sorry, poor person's Santander.

That's what I was gonna say, Like, Santime der Light is what you're I think the upside here.

Any thoughts about anyone else here?

I guess I do want to talk about Trout.

I don't have a lot to say, but like, do you see yourself?

And I know you know, the answer for you is always going to be well, if the price is right, yes, But do you see yourself buying any Mic Traut in this in this season now?

I mean not at his current ADP.

And I have a feeling there's going to be somebody like in every draft who is a little aggressive on him and kind of jumps the line and makes the play.

So yeah, the bottom line for me is I'm very unlikely to have any Trout just for that reason.

I get it, like I see it, and I think we're all rooting for him, right, like it would be fun.

You know, you look back to, you look back to like you know, some great players, and I think I think I was thinking of like Ken Griffy Junior.

Like Ken Griffy Junior had like one season, like after a bunch of injured season in his age thirty five year, you know, thirty five home runs, like three hundred average eighty eighty five runs.

Who run spatted in?

You know, he didn't run obviously, but it's like wow, like that's tremendous.

And could you know one hundred and twenty games too, Like could Trout do that?

Of course he could, like he's Mike Trout.

I just think it's more likely that what you're going to see is you know, like between seventy and ninety games.

And you know, even if it is like the version of Mike Trout that we've seen, you know, with like a well above average hitter.

Yeah, he's just really a tough player to He's just really a tough player to bet on.

And if you want to make that bet, I like, where's adp is?

I'm not even saying it's wrong, like you know, to take him like in the tenth round.

I get it, but I just don't think it's a risk that I feel comfortable taking.

Frankly, I think the player i'd rather have who's going later, who I've ranked higher, is like Tommy Edmond.

And you know it's part of that is outside of last year, Edmund has been healthy.

You know, I know it's just the postseason, but you know, maybe it's just me as a Mets fan, like he looked great and he was running in the postseason.

You know, different profile obviously, but I could see Edmund like being a super utility player who's like a fifteen to thirty player, and I think there's value in that where he's going.

I mean, he's projected to be the everyday center fielder right now.

Yeah, which is not ideal defensively, but I don't think the Dodgers really care that much.

Yeah, I will give we didn't talk about Taskar Hernandez, but I think the same principle applies that.

You know, we've been talking about a bit of a damper on players who were in Seattle, and I think in San Diego with the team context, but with Los Angeles obviously, if you are in that lineup, you are getting a bit of a boost in terms of your accumulating stats.

So yeah, I think Edmond's pretty safe.

He will have.

He'll have, you know, multi multiple position eligibility.

So yeah.

I will say one drawback to him is like on the Cardinals, particularly earlier in his career, was like top the lineup, lots of runs.

He'll be bottom lineup.

So yeah, yeah, is going to be up after him.

That's what I was gonna say.

He'll still have Otani and Betts in some situations to drive him in, but I would expect those runs to fall off someone.

Sure, Uh, all right?

Anyone else or should we just wrap it up here?

I I want to say, have you seen ever seen Jason Dominga's play?

By the way, it is Jason.

I looked it up.

I've seen him in the field, not really covering himself in glory, but I don't remember.

I'm sure I've seen a few plate appearances, but I don't really remember them.

Well.

I bring this up because I I live pretty close to the Yankees double a affiliate in Somerset, and whenever I've seen him play, and I know, you know it's the whole You can't scout the stats, but I've never walked away thinking wow, like he's going to be like a superstar, like he's gonna be great.

It's like, oh, like okay, Like he looks like he's going to be a major leaguer.

So I'm fine with him at this price.

But if he starts climbing like he has a good spring and people get excited and and people like kind of tout the prospect pedigree, I don't think I'll be like following along.

Like I'm kind of fine with him at this like about eleventh round price, I'm not really gonna chase him if he, you know, suddenly gets helium because of good spring training.

We have next to no data.

You know, we have.

Sixty seven played appearances last year.

We have thirty three sort of an even one hundred major league played appearances for Dominguez, and you know, we just we just don't know.

And this is I for me, this is early to be draftings.

If you're talking about a starting position on your in your lineup.

I don't feel super confident in Debs like you say, you know, as you say, I think he will be a major league regular at some point, but I think it could be a bubby ride for the for the career.

I also bought projected him this could change and projected the bottom lineup which could dampen the steals a little bit.

I can damp and his runs bad at that a little bit.

So yeah, I don't want to completely undersell him, like I see the twenty twenty potential.

I just don't want to bet on him, like that's that's a certainty.

And yeah, in n FBC leagues there will be someone who will pick to me as ahead of ahead of us.

Oh sure, Like I think the overall component people are gonna look at him and go, yeah, you know that there's there's a there's a like top you know, top echelon player lurking here, and it's like, well, if you make that bet and he gets there, like bless you.

Yeah.

I don't think I don't have anyone.

I don't think we've talked about almost everyone here at this point.

I don't think anyone else I want to talk about it.

Thanks again for listening to episode three, twenty six of Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball PERSPECTUS Fantasy Baseball podcast.

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