Navigated to Texas' changing congressional delegation - Transcript

Texas' changing congressional delegation

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

This week's episode of the Tribecast is brought to you by the members of the Texas Tribune.

Speaker 2

Our Fall member drive is happening now.

Speaker 1

We need five hundred Texans to make a first time donation to the Texas Tribune.

Become a member today at Texastribune dot org slash donate.

Hello and welcome to this week's episode of the Tribecast for Tuesday, September twenty third.

I'm Eleanor klibanoff Law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune.

I am solo today in the studio, at least, sitting up here all by my lonesome.

Matthew is away, but joined in spirit and over zoom by one of the greats, the Texas Tribune Washington correspondent, Gabby Beerenbaum.

Speaker 2

Gabby, how are you.

Speaker 3

I'm good, one of the greats.

I was going for Rookie of the Year.

Yeah, I just started, but I'll take it.

Speaker 1

Two things can be true, two things can be true.

So as of well, we're actually taking this on Monday, so as of today, but as of yesterday when you're listening to this, we are officially into fall, which is exciting because it is my favorite season and also exciting because it's a season of change, of old things falling away to make way for new opportunities, which brings us to our topic of the week, the changing face of Texas's congressional delegation.

I'll be honest, I do better with the segues and setups when I have someone else in the studio.

But you know, Gabby, we invite you Wanta because we really do want to talk about it.

We've had this sort of flurry of news over the summer, whether it's redistricting or campaign announcements or retirement announcements, especially recently, that seem likely to sort of reshape Texas's representation in Washington DC.

And you know, a lot of this is sort of slow moving targets in that a lot of this won't actually go into affection until, you know, uh, twenty twenty seven, if we're being you know, realistically, once after the twenty twenty sixth election.

But it is a huge deal because both for Texas, like how we're represented in DC, but also for the country we have this very outsized influence in DC, or like to think we do at least, So let's start there.

Speaker 2

I mean, can you talk a little.

Speaker 1

Bit of just about like Texas's delegation in Congress sort of the state of the delegation and the role it plays more broadly.

Speaker 4

Yeah, so Texas.

Speaker 3

There are thirty eight members in the House from Texas, and the vast majority are Republicans, so right now twenty five and so historically, what the Texas Republican you know, conference has wanted, they can they have lunch every week.

They can then take that to the broader Republican conference.

And because they speak with such a large voice, they can really sort of set the agenda for House Republicans when they're unified and when they have you know, they have a big voice in the room by quantity, but some of that also depends on right who's speaking.

And I think in the last few cycles we've seen a lot of the sort of heavy hitters of the Texas delegation who had been committee chairs.

You know, Kevin Brady from the Houston area was the longtime chair of Ways and Means.

Kay Granger from Fort Worth was the chair of Appropriations.

Some really longtime members retired either in the first Trump administration or the Biden administration, and so a lot of the members these days are in their first second third term, and while there are definitely some strivers and some ambitious people, I think the Texas delegation in general doesn't have.

Speaker 4

The clout it once had on the Republican side.

Speaker 3

And I think that's going to be even more compounded because we already have some high profile retirements coming in the next election cycle.

Speaker 2

Right.

Speaker 1

I mean that is interesting, like when unified very powerful, when there's disunity.

I mean, what are sort of the factions that we see now broadly speaking?

Speaker 2

I mean, does it is just sort of reflective.

Speaker 1

Of the factions we just see in Congress are playing out in the Texas donation.

Speaker 3

I mean, I think I think there's two things going on.

I think, like one, there's people talk about like the Five Families.

It's very mafia esque of the of House Republicans, and so that ranges from the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is like a bipartisan group of moderates, to the Freedom Caucus, which is like the most right wing, you know, really fiscal hawks that often are thorn in the side of leadership and Texas.

You know, there's Republicans in all five families, right, So that's part of it.

But also, like I mentioned, a lot of it is just the lack of seniority.

And there's very few members these days who have been there pre you know, pre Trump one, honestly, and I think in a more somewhat civil time when there was more bipartisanship in Congress, and so a lot of a lot of the newer members, I think just don't have that experience of needing to work with the other party to get things done, sort of keeping the temperature down a bit.

And so, you know what what gets you are, you know what bolsters your reputation in Congress these days.

And I just talked about this with Congressman McCall who's one of the members who's retiring.

Is not necessarily what it was in his day when he came into the bush.

Ere you know, it's a lot more.

I think a lot of older members would say now it's a lot more about getting on TV or you know, getting earned media and all that, and less about legislating.

And so I think that's also part of the dynamic of the Texas delegation.

You've got people with like different levels of interest in legislation versus sort of attention.

Not that they're always mutually exclusive, but I think that's what some of the older members might say.

Speaker 2

Right, right, that makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 1

Let's talk about Congressman McCall, who you had a fantastic story on him last week.

He you know, represented Central Texas, a Central Texas district for twenty two years, and he announced he will be retiring.

I mean, who is Congressman McCall's or what does he represent at this point?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think Carson McCall.

Speaker 3

They call him Chairman, amereta McCall because they shared two big pities, homeland security and foreign affairs.

He's you know, a bit from a different era.

He came to Congress during the Bush era, he told me, And he ran his first campaign in two thousand and four on a platform of counter terrorism like very you know, very relevant in the four election and not as much anymore.

His background was in counter terrorism work, and he you know, chaired the Homeland Security Committee during the Boston bombings.

Then he chaired Foreign Affairs during the Biden administration for those last two years, and so he was sort of the Republican shadow.

Speaker 4

Secretary of State people called him in that time.

Speaker 3

But like from a much more you know, neo conservative, Reagan esque era of Republican politics.

You know, he's a very big Ukraine hawk.

He's this huge support of Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, just a believer in like American American, you know, interest in the global sphere and like participating much less so than I think a lot of the isolationism in America first rhetoric and policy that you see out of the Trump administration somewhat and certainly out of a lot of members of Congress now.

And so I think he's really been like a voice trying to keep the party engaged in global affairs.

But he sort of turned out of leading committees anymore.

Speaker 4

He's one of the longest.

Speaker 3

Tenure members from Texas, and so he told me he felt like it was time to time to move on.

He had a good quote about you either die in office, lose, get indicted, or you.

Speaker 4

Can leave with dignity.

So he wanted to do the last one.

Speaker 3

But yeah, he's sort of a towering figure I think in the in the party, among House Republicans and then also in Texas politics, and so that's going to be a huge, like sort of wealth of knowledge.

I think about how Congress works and how the legislative process works, and you know as someone who's been to you know, tons of countries and met tons of foreign leaders over the years, and so that that's going to be just a big sort of wealth of knowledge in the delegation that'll be gone come twenty seven.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I thought, like your story really, in addition to capturing sort of his you know, decision to leave, it does really reflect like this change in Republican priorities.

I mean when we think about maybe talked about this on here before, but I a couple months ago went to the George W.

Bush Presidential Library at SMU, and it was so interesting.

It was like right when they were talking, the Trump administration was talking about all these like global aid cuts, and it was so interesting just to see like the Bush administration's priority on like PEPFAR and these programs, and thinking like if we're going to do this sort of you know, these political goals or these you know, if we're going to sort of charge into these other countries, like we also should be pouring money into global aid and other things like that, and like those are just so different than the conversations we're having.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Absolutely, and McCall is like a huge i think believer in like that former Bush era global consensus, and then I mean we had interest in a conversation he told me understands like the sort of younger person's frustration with forever wars and that like people have people who grew up in the Afghanistana Rock era have a different perspective than him who grew up during the Cold War.

But I think he said he's going to continue to kind of speak out just from outside of Congress for like the sort of yeah American interest in aid and intervention in those things.

But yeah, it's I think it's been an increasingly lonely path in Congress for him.

Speaker 1

Than it used to be, right, Yeah, I mean it's just interesting when we you know, there's been so much talk and we're going to probably talk about this a little bit with Lloyd Doggett, but like there's been so much talk about, you know, when is the right time for older members to leave, and like a lot of condemnation particularly well, I guess I would say on both sides about like overstaying age wise, but yeah, there is obviously you know, something lost when it's like everyone's sort of new and younger.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think that's what they balanced and McCall's only in his sixties.

Speaker 4

I mean, I was like your sprint chicken.

Speaker 2

For right, Yeah, exactly right.

Speaker 1

Yeah, he's not leaving in a wheelchair, yeah right, right, right, But yeah.

Speaker 3

It's all It'll be interesting to see what happens there.

Speaker 1

Yeah, another Central Texas Republican potent giving up his seat to run for a different office.

Not retiring, but Chip Roy, who has announced he will be running for attorney Texas Attorney General.

Speaker 2

A really different character.

Speaker 1

Than McCall in a lot of ways, although they are sort of from the same general region of the state.

Can you talk a little bit about Chip Roy and who he is and what he represents to.

Speaker 3

Yeah, the So Chip Roy has you know, been all over in Texas politics.

He worked for Senator Cruz, he was his chief of staff during cruise his like first few years in the Senate.

Then he went on to work for Paxton at the beginning of Paxson's ten years age, and they sort of parted.

You would know more than me about this, but parted on bad terms.

And so, yeah, Roy in Congress has been I think a sort of chief mischief maker for Republican leadership.

He's someone they all, you know, when they're trying to pass a major bill, they always have to negotiate with him.

He's the policy chair of the Freedom Caucus, which I mentioned is the sort of big fiscal hawk, you know, farthest right caucus.

So his big thing in Congress has been cutting spending.

And so he's you know, very active in the media, is very.

Speaker 4

Well known to journalists on the Hill.

Speaker 3

You know, if you're if the Freedom Coucus is acting up and trying to shut down legislation or freeze the floor, like he's he's, you know, the best guy to go to and learn what's going on in most cases.

He's got a really you know, great policy brand and can talk through a lot of issues.

But yeah, he he is someone I don't I don't know that House leadership will miss all that must all that much because he's, uh, he's They've had to negotiate with him.

Speaker 4

All the time over various things.

But yeah, he's running for Attorney General.

Speaker 3

So that'll open up his seat, which is like Hill country, central Texas area, uh, Austin to San Antonio.

And so there's already a bunch of Republicans looking at that seat, including Mark to Shia, former former Ranger and Yankee baseball player.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you know, we've got a couple celebrities in the mix on for different seats, which is fun for name recognition at least.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.

Speaker 1

I mean Roy obviously entering like a very crowded attorney general race, although I think some polling shows like he definitely has the highest name recognition among the candidates.

So yeah, I mean, do you sort of read anything in the tea leaves of that of like deciding to run for AG versus staying in the house where he has been sort of I think someone intentionally like a frustrating character.

Yeah, yeah, I mean I think he he talked about I think like wanting to be spend more time in Texas than in DC, which is like a common lawmaker complaint I think about about Congress A B.

He's a lawyer, he's you know, a really I think he really thinks, thinks through things with a legal mind.

I have to imagine this is an office that he's been looking at, especially because I mentioned he worked for Pacston and that's an office he's familiar with.

So and you know, he has, like he said, high name idea I think is something that he rightfully thinks he can win, just given what we've seen from early.

Speaker 4

But yeah, I mean I think a.

Speaker 3

Lot of members of Congress, and you know, we can talk about Morgan Latrell in the eighth district outside of Houston is also leaving after two terms.

I think for a lot of people, it can be a pretty frustrating place.

And I think for you know, and you see this across all fifty states, a lot of people I think come to Congress and then leave wanting a job actually in their state where they feel like they can make more of an impact and not just being one of four hundred and thirty five.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and I mean I think Roy almost sort of said that where he was like, you know, this isn't really a job you should do forever, right, Like I think there's yeah, sort of the opposite of you know, the McCall argument.

Right, it's like, yes, you want people to be tenured in experienced, and also like, what a weird job.

Speaker 2

You probably shouldn't have it.

You should probably cook your brain.

Speaker 3

A little smilar definitely hill creatures.

And I think others come and do it for a few terms.

And Roy's been there since he woned eighteen, so I guess that would be this fourth term.

But yeah, I think I think a lot of people get very frustrated by the sort of machinations of Congress, and it can be hard to stand out.

Speaker 1

I mean, I obviously, like like you said, I mean, we're probably looking at a pretty crowded race for his seed.

I mean, similarly McCall, I mean, none of these seats are like necessarily handed down to one clear like air apparent anymore.

But when you it feels like sort of the common wisdom would be that, like someone like McCall would be replaced by someone who's maybe more in the mold of the modern conservative movement.

Roy is sort of a character unto himself.

I mean, do you have any sense of sort of like he leaves, someone else replaces him, Like what that impact, Like, what what is that person likely to be more conservative or just more of a you know, obviously House leadership would prefer they be sort of more march in line with the with the Yeah.

Speaker 3

It is hard realized such an interesting character, right, because yeah, I mean he is like definitely one of the most right wing conservative members of the House.

At the same time, like he was one of the only Republicans from Texas who didn't sign on to like election challenges in twenty twenty.

Speaker 4

So he's kind of an interesting guy.

Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think in a lot of these cases, and I think we've seen just from like younger members in Texas who have come in the last few years, I think, yeah, they're much more in the mold of like a trumpy America first type conservative, And so I think that's also part of how the delegation has changed over time to be more of a Republican and Trump's image than the era that predated him.

And so yeah, we'll see who comes out of these seats, but I wouldn't be surprised if if it ends up being people who align more with like where the Republican Party is in this moment in the White House.

Speaker 1

Right we I want to talk about another major change in Central Texas.

Speaker 2

But before we do that.

Speaker 1

I do want to say this week's episode of the Tribe Cast is brought to you by the members of the Texas Tribune.

Speaker 2

It is our fall membership drive.

Speaker 1

If you are not a member, we would love for you to join our little family.

You can become a member at Texastribune dot org.

Slash donate.

You can also go to our website.

We've got donate buttons everywhere.

If you're subscribed to our newsletters, we're also pushing it there.

If you are donating, feel free to mention that you love the trip cast.

That is a very valuable feedback to people who get to decide things like whether or not we keep doing this, and feel free to say you prefer you know which host you prefer and who you'd like to see more or less of.

Matthew's not here to defend himself, so you know, write in how much you like me?

Speaker 2

Please do that.

Speaker 1

Okay, So let's talk about the other change in Central Texas on the other side of the aisle, which is a longtime Congressman Lloyd Doggett announcing he will retire instead of challenging Greg Kassar for the newly redrawn district.

You did a lot of really great reporting on how that decision came to be.

But before that sort of what did how did redistricting sort of pit them against each other?

And what was that looking like before we either of them made a decision?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean for years, Austin, in various iterations at the Texas congressional map has been cracked so that they could only be one Democrat representing it, and that was Lloyd dog It.

And then in twenty twenty one, I think for the first time, you know, Austin has I think the highest percent of Democratic voters of the you know, major metro areas, and for the first time, I think Republican map Jars were like all right, you know, we see the writing on the wall, and they drew two Austin based seats.

So there was Doggets, which is sort of West Austin, and then Kazars, which is more East Austin and stretched down to San Antonio.

Doggets was majority white, Casars was majority people of color, so you know, sort of differences there.

But in the most recent redraw, the mid decade redistricting that you and I have obviously like spent the last several months reporting on, they went back down to one.

Speaker 4

So they made a sort of dem super district in Austin.

Speaker 3

It's gonna be it was, you know, of the thirty eight, the one that voted by Kamala Harris by by far the biggest margin, there's going to be a seat that you know, whoever takes that it could serve indefinitely.

Speaker 4

I think it's so long as they don't get into.

Speaker 2

Any they don't go to night.

Speaker 4

I mean, who knows Nicole's right.

Speaker 2

List of ways to leave?

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Right, So, and it was about, you know, the way it was drawn.

It was about two thirds of Dogget's constituents and the rest were Kassar's constituents.

Speaker 4

I think there was some.

Speaker 3

Question of who's going to run here.

And Kassar's district was redrawn to be you know, very few of his current constituents and it's in the sort of San Antonio area and suburbs much more conservative.

Voted for Trump by like ten points.

So I think, you know, I know that Doget's hope was that he would run in you know, his old district, in the Austin district, and Kasar would, you know, try to make a stand for Democrats in a district that's going to be hard for them to win.

Kassar, who was on the Austin City Council, you know, it was very much an Austin I was like, no, I'm I'm going to be running in the new thirty seven, the new Austin district.

So there was a bit of a shadow primary that played out between the two of them.

Speaker 4

Doug gets sort of.

Speaker 3

Swung first, and you know, put Out talked about it on TV, put out a sort of email to supporters saying, you know, my experience is worthwhile, and explicitly saying Kazar should run in the New.

Speaker 4

Thirty five instead.

Speaker 3

Kasar behind the scenes sort of starting putting together you know, polsters and endorsements and all types of things, and I think dog it to his chagrin.

I think it's pretty clear he still wishes Kassar run in thirty five and he would have stayed.

But I think saw that it was going to be a divisive primary at the very least, that it was going to be hard fought.

And he still says, you know that he would have won, but he feels like it wasn't worth, you know, dividing up Austin and you know, turning into a potentially ugly primary.

And he is seventy eight, double check me on that, so you know he's up there.

Kasar is pretty young.

Kasar's thirty six.

So he decided that if the maps hold in court, that he will step aside and Kassar can run and presumably win in the New thirty seven.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's an interesting case because I think on its face, like if you don't follow politics that closely, you're it fits into the narrative of like, you know, a young and you know, very progressive person of color versus like an older white man essentially.

Speaker 2

But I mean they're both very progressive.

Speaker 1

I mean I think they chair and co chair the House Progressive Caucus.

Speaker 2

Like, they're very politically aligned.

I think on a lot of things, this is not a I.

Speaker 1

Mean, I guess in many ways it is old guard new guard, just age wise, but it's like not a huge policy split.

Speaker 2

Is that fair to say?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean Kasar is it's only on a second term.

He's definitely like a rising star.

I think somebody would say he's already the star artist Lady Rose.

He's the chair of the Progressive of the Caucus, dogget who's been in Congress since the nineties.

He's also in the Progressive Caucus.

I think he's a vice chair.

So yeah, these are two people who like ideologically are not that different.

It's just sort of stylistic.

Yeah, I mean I think definitely like the racial element would have played out in a primary and that, you know, but I think the whole thing was going to sort of force uncomfortable conversations about age, especially because Lloyd Doggett was the first Democrat to call on Joe Biden to not run after Biden's debate last year against Trump, where you know, he really faltered.

So there was just a lot of a lot of issues that Democrats are kind of dancing around or talking about more like post Biden and figuring out what happened.

I think would have really come to the fore and already did somewhat in that shadow primary.

But yeah, it would have exposed I think a lot of the tensions you know, vibes wise and identity wise the Democrats have not so much like.

Speaker 1

Actually on policy right right, No, it's super interesting and I mean interesting again, like just a lot of longevity that's being lost on the smaller and soon to be much smaller Democratic side of the of the delegation.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Really, I think both parties obviously, as we've talked about, having a real reckoning about like age versus experience.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Dogget's been there.

Speaker 3

He's elected in ninety four, so I mean he's really one of the I think he's the dean of the Texas delegation he's like the longest serving member and you know, really he's number two on Democrat on Ways and Means, which is like the most powerful tax writing committee.

Speaker 4

So he it's interesting he you.

Speaker 3

Know, was there for the era of liberal Texas, whereas because so far, you know, was that's not a Texas that he remembers.

So it just would have been a very interesting sort of It would have been a really interesting primory on.

Speaker 4

That level too.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean Lloyd Doggett, former Texas Supreme Court justice, which now feels crazy to think when where the Texasupreme Court stands.

Speaker 3

Name house, when Democrats had a majority and all that.

I mean, yeah, he he came to Congress the year that Anna Richards lost the governorship for Dems to never reclaim it.

So I mean the narrative staff would have been would have been very juicy.

Speaker 2

Yeah, for sure, for sure.

Speaker 1

So obviously we're also like just going to see and we don't yet know what this will look like, but we're going to see a lot of ripple effects from this redistricting, a lot of Democrats potentially losing their seats or having to run in like much tougher districts.

Like to look into the crystal ball, you know, for a year and a half from now.

I mean, what what do you think the delegation ultimately will look like after twenty twenty six, assuming these maps stay in effect and sort of people do what they say they're going to do.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean, it's really gonna cull the sort of experience of the delegation in a lot of ways.

So I mean, of the longest tenured members, you've got Doggett, who you know, assuming the map gets held up in court, will be gone.

Speaker 4

You've got McCall who will be gone.

Henry Kuoyar is.

Speaker 3

Now redrawn into a district that I think he very much still could win, but he you know, he could lose.

Speaker 4

It's now a Trump plus ten district.

Speaker 3

It was a Trump plus seven or you know, he's still under incitement and you know, we'll see if that goes to trial.

But he's also he was also elected in two thosand and four.

Speaker 4

One of the longest serving.

Speaker 3

Members Pete's sessions in John Carter on their Republican side, have been there for quite a while.

But they're you know, getting older, so we'll see how much longer they stay there.

Mark VC had a district that was targeted.

Speaker 4

He's been there for.

Speaker 3

A while, he could end up leaving Congress, and so I think you're just going to see a delegation that has much more junior members and you know, much fewer people who have really experienced like Republican congresses, Democratic congresses, different presidential administrations, like working with different people, have a sort of set of issues that's changed over time, and so like, I think some people will say, yeah, it's good, like let's get these people who've been there forever, these dinosaurs out.

Speaker 4

Then I think some people would say.

Speaker 3

You know, this is experience that matters when you bring into the legislative process and when you're trying to sort of advocate for Texas specific priorities.

But it's you know, for sure, I think going to be a much younger, much less experienced Texas.

Speaker 1

Delegation, right and almost inevitably, I mean certainly much more read right, like a little bit less yeah.

Speaker 4

Right right.

Speaker 3

I mean we'll see if they win of those of course you're on seats three, four or five, but I think you know, everyone agrees are going to win at least.

Speaker 1

Three, right, right, Yeah, it's going to be I mean, it's just so interesting the long tail.

I think there's so much attention of course right now and redistricting and well the MAS and how did they pass and the corn break and all that, but it's like, you know, people will win offices that they might hold for decades as we've seen, you know, like this could really fundamentally shift things, and like not even in good or bad ways, just like in the boring ways that your representative you know, gets stuff done for you in DC that has nothing to do with politics, but it's like, no, that's.

Speaker 4

Part of it.

Speaker 3

I mean, it's really like a generational opportunity for ambitious Republicans in the state because there's so many friendly seats now open.

I mean, big opportunity for Republican consultants too, right somebody, But yeah, I mean there's you know, five seats that could flip.

There's three retirements.

We'll see if there's more.

There's also two you know, big primaries Dan Crenshaw and two in Houston and Tony Gonzalez and twenty three along the border.

You know that is those are the potential to flip always.

So yeah, there's just huge opportunity for Republicans looking to break into federal politics in Texas.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's like like we think about like meticulous map drawing and then it's just like a tornado ripping through essentially not you know, just like all of these forces combined as like a tornado ripping through the delegation in a lot of ways.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Absolutely.

Speaker 1

Yeah, on the other piece of the delegation, we may also see a change, which is with on the Senate side, we've got a really contentious primary between John Cornyn and you know, long time incumbent senator and current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

We've talked about this race a lot on this podcast, but you know, before we just even get into that race at all, there is another thing sort of hanging over this of you know, a member on the House side who may we're hearing like maybe would be interested in getting into this.

There's been a lot of rumblings about Wesley Hunt maybe getting into it, another example of like youth versus experience and things like that.

I mean, where does that sort of stand.

I know he's been running some statewide ads and stuff.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think it's probably coming down to decision time for Wesley Hunt.

For those who don't know, he's a second term congressman from Houston area, like West Houston up to like Tomball, and he was a big surrogate for Trump during the campaign.

Speaker 4

He has been.

Speaker 3

Sort of, you know, circling the waters of this Senate race.

He's got aligned groups that have been putting millions of dollars into just trying to get his name idea up I think statewide.

And so his sort of I think the case for him would be that Cornan is you know, to quote unquote moderate, and like I hesitan to say that because like again on policy, it's not like him and Packson are radically different in terms of like what their vote record would be.

But Vibes was that Cornyn can't win a primary and packs In is a liability in general because of all his various ethical issues, and that Hunt could sort of bridge the gap of being like, you know, he satisfies the sort of MAGA base.

You know, he's very He was one of the first congressmen to endorse Trump when he announced he was running for reelection again in twenty two.

But at the same time, he doesn't have any you know, like allegations of affairs and ethical issues and you know, all that all the stuff that Paxton comes with.

So that's the sort of argument for Hunt.

The question is like, is he well known enough in the state to like counteract to politicians who have been there, you know, Cornyn forever, right since since he was attorney general and Paxton, who's also been attorney.

Speaker 2

General since what was it fourteen?

Was ect in twenty fourteen?

Speaker 3

Yeah, right, yeah, so that'll be the question.

He hasn't gotten in yet, just you know, sort of circling, but finally deadline in December, primaries in March, so I think the time is fast approaching for him to make a decision, and if he does get in, then that's another opening in the Houston area in a Republican.

Speaker 1

State, right, Yeah, it's like everyone sort of watching for everyone else to move to figure out what that opens up.

Speaker 3

Yeah, he has an enormous musical chairs effect for like every.

Speaker 2

Spent time of year.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean right, I mean that Ray is obviously so interesting and really a different narrative, different entirely in the way that anytime Ken Paxton gets involved, it doesn't map onto traditional like it's not age versus experience.

Ken Paxton is younger than John Cornyn, but is not pitching as a young fresh face argument, but just you know, really really opposed to John Cornyn, and you know Cornan obviously spoke out during Paxton's attempted impeachment and things like that.

So that's a real bare knuckles fight that's almost like separate from everything else happening in the in the.

Speaker 4

Party, but have the same effect.

Speaker 3

Right if Paxton words, which is like taking out one of the longest tenured members of the delegation on the Senate side, and just you know, it would be a remaking of Texas Republicans in.

Speaker 2

Congress for sure.

Speaker 1

I mean, you would have as your two senators Ken Paxton and Ted Cruz, who are you know, both sort of fire.

Speaker 2

Brands in their own way.

Would be very very interesting.

Speaker 1

Yeah, So I mean a period of major, major change.

It's like the only thing guaranteed is that it will be different in about a year and a half.

But we are still currently all these people still have their jobs that they have currently, and so just give us a little preview of like what is coming.

We're in the middle, we're about to be We're in the middle of a major political fight at the capitol, government shutdown and things like that.

What are the you know, what are the things keeping the Texas delegation up at night?

Right?

Speaker 2

Now?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean I think government shutdown is a big one.

Speaker 3

So the government runs out of money on September third, not third, government runs out of money at Stember thirtieth.

Otherwise we've already there, right, So if they do not pass a funding built by then, which it doesn't look like they are because they're out all this week and when they come back, the love like two days to figure it out, which seems unlikely, and Democrats are really not in the mood I think, to sort of give Republicans anything, including government funding.

So it seems like we're going to have to a shutdown, and I think it'll be a sort of preview of what we'll see on the campaign.

Democrats are going to try to make this about healthcare.

There are these tax credits for ACA and rolies that drive premiums down that are expiring at the end of the year, and so Democrats will kind of coalesced around an extension of those credits as like.

Speaker 4

A demand in exchange for government.

Speaker 3

Funding, Whereas I think Republicans are, you know, trying to say Democrats.

Speaker 4

Cause this shutdown by not voting for our bills.

Speaker 3

We're trying to do the work of the American people, you know, to fund the military, fund the border, x y Z and so I think it'll be a bit of a proxy war for the twenty six elections.

That'll be interesting once, if, and when a deal is eventually reached, we'll see if the usual characters, you know, Chip Roy, Michael Cloud, Keith Sealf members of the Freedom Caucus try to stand in the.

Speaker 4

Way of that.

And then it'll also be interested to see.

Speaker 3

You know, last time this happened in the spring, no House Democrats from Texas and I think almost none in the entire caucus supported a funding bill, and it was ten set Democratic senators who just you know, in a change for nothing, basically voted with Republicans to keep the government open.

And there was huge anger at Chuck Schumer over that.

If people remember, I know it, there's so much news a lifetime ago, go back to like a few months ago.

So yeah, it'll be interesting to see at some point, you know, shutdowns have to end and deals with to be reached.

Typically and oftentimes like the party that forces it doesn't necessarily get anything.

Speaker 4

I think that's been historically true.

So we'll see, you know, who folds and when.

Speaker 3

But if some of the Texas Democrats end up upset with what their leadership negotiates, I could definitely see that being a storyline as well.

Speaker 2

Right, Yeah, I mean.

Speaker 1

Certainly, like like you said, like, I mean, I feel like this from covering redistricting here in the quorum break and stuff, it is like inevitably all of this is just hashing out and testing out arguments for what's going to sort of sell to voters down the road.

How can you sell all of this, which in some degree is your job, you know, what do your constituents want?

Speaker 2

Who will send you?

Speaker 1

Know?

How can you give people what they want to send you back?

But it does seem to play out, and you know, I think you know, Roberson McCall was saying this of like just much more a little bit meaner than it used to be and a little bit more for like clicks and attention and TV which doesn't lower the temperature on anything.

Speaker 2

Ever.

Speaker 4

Yeah, certainly not.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it'll be interesting and if, especially if it becomes about these tax credits.

There's such a big deal in Texas because Texas never expanded MEDICID, so like the percentage of people in the state who are ACA and rulies is a lot higher than almost any other state.

And so I wonder if that puts Texas Republicans whore otherwise opposed to you know, most federal spending, like in a bind at all.

So it'll be interesting to see how the politics of.

Speaker 1

It play out, Right, Definitely I'm curious, I mean sort of before that you go, you before coming to this job covered the Nevada's congressional delegation.

Speaker 2

Is that right?

How how does it compare?

Like what are the is there?

Obviously scale is part of it, I imagine.

Speaker 4

Scale is huge.

Speaker 3

And Nevada had four House members and two senators, and there were five Democrats almost all like very polished.

They all run in you know, the two senators obviously as a swing state, and then the three Dems are all in like battleground districts.

So they're all very careful, pretty moderate, pretty measured.

And then the one Republican from up north was just a character who but you know, almost always put with leadership, never caused problems really for Republicans.

And so it's a much broader range of like types of Republicans for me, certainly, like by quantity, but also by what they're interested in.

And Yeah, going from the swing state to a red state has also been just like a different set of set of issues and things people care about.

And seeing the I think, like the Republican infighting that happens, especially like you and other people have reported Rinzo right, like at the state party level and things like that is super interesting to me, just because, like coming from Nevada, like both the Democratic and Republicans I think try as much as they could to like tamp down dissent because they're so focused on just getting the fifty.

And so it's a different, different set of challenges that the parties face in Texas, which I'm learning about every day and is really interesting to me.

Speaker 1

Yeah, much more unruly bunch, which I guess anytime you've got more people, it's you know, more personalities.

Speaker 4

Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1

Well, really appreciate you sort of going through all that with us.

If you want to read more about the DC shenanigans, you can find all of Gabby's reporting at Texastribune dot org.

As we said before, this week's episode of the trib Cast is brought to you by you, the members of the Texas Tribune Our Fall Member drive is happening now.

We need five hundred Texans to make a first time donation.

Become a member today at Texastribune dot org slash donate, Write and how much you love the Trib Cast and make sure you tune in next week.

Our producers are Rob and Chris.

You can get the podcast anywhere you find your podcast or on YouTube and we will see you right before government shutdown.

Never lose your place, on any device

Create a free account to sync, back up, and get personal recommendations.