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Right Welcome everyone into the launch angle.

Pilot Rob D, the Deadpool hitter.

This won't take too long, but if you do want to come check out the Extra Launch Angle podcast over on the Patreon, go to patreon.com.

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Again, Pull Hitter Fantasy into the search bar.

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So come check it out.

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And along with with all the all the content I'm doing right now, every single day for spring training, I'm doing a hot corner.

I'm running down through the biggest Nuggets of the day and not just reporting the news, but trying to pivot to what's actionable in these news.

Pitch mix changes, someone batting in a batting order, all that fun stuff.

Come check it out again.

What what could hurt you?

All right, thanks for listening and appreciate your time.

And here we go with Rob and Jeff on the long Tango pod.

Here's the pitch.

Hi, welcome on into the launch Angle Pod.

I'm Rob D I'm here with Jeff Zimmerman and Rob Silver.

Guys.

It's Shut up and Dribble Week and that's we're not going to podcast.

I just came here to announce the podcast, but we're just going to leave.

I'm too.

I'm too busy.

I have to stay focused on work.

Yeah, this is working hours right now.

I am podcasting.

It is taken away from my job.

Yeah you yeah I mean Co workers are going to just suffer from your lack of dedication to your craft.

Jeff you too fan graph should be absolutely ashamed.

But how you guys doing this week?

We are right up on March.

You know, the main events are really a short distance away, Las Vegas, all this fun stuff and got my juices flowing.

You know, we see the, you know, wonderful people online who are, you know, got the cool visuals.

They're really doing a lot of good work in the community.

But it's also over hype season, which is I love it.

You know, every guy's a Cy Young candidate in spring training.

It's good.

Obviously we need to, like, try to digest what is meaningful or not, but it's definitely one of those, you know, flash weeks where it's like everybody's popping, nobody stinks.

Yeah, yeah, I got Jeff.

Oh yeah.

I was like, besides Jackson Holiday, I was like looking at him, 75% swinging strike rate.

Wow.

He's hacking at everything, dude.

Damn.

The thing.

The thing?

I find tough right now is if you're, if you're, if you're online a lot, everybody's putting out like my 30 sleepers on 30, you know, one sleeper per team, one breakout player per team.

If you literally try to compile everybody's sleepers from like the 1000 people creating content, you've just captured the entire fantasy baseball pool other than me, like basic, basically everybody.

It's, it's it's awesome.

And that's not shitting on any one person who's doing it because they're your guys, They're your people.

You believe.

It's just fucking so much noise, though.

A.

Lot of noise, but as Jeff was saying, you know like in the process that if you gather lists, sometimes it works out better than.

Wisdom of all the lists, I think everybody could break it.

Aggregation of the threads, because that's what they are.

Threads.

You got to.

You got to include the thread.

You have to.

Spread them together.

If you put it posting them as as thirty single post that it's annoying as hell.

Awful.

Awful.

Yeah, We'll have to tell you guys.

This might be my last coherent podcast for a while because my next two drafts, I'm up against Ariel Cohen.

I'll immatize you.

I know, dude.

Two of them.

I've got a labor auction this weekend and we're Tanner and I are in this TG FBI league so I could be done dude.

The the have you have you downloaded the latest ATC update that got uploaded last night?

I I have not.

I know, I know, I noticed he tweeted that there was an update coming.

I, I, I need to stay away.

I, I got to, you know, I'm going to make a tinfoil hat and everything to get ready.

So you just cannot.

You just, you just.

Won't know what the internal skew though is of the various projections unless you have the latest.

I know, I know, it's got a rough there there Sunday through.

I like to see you got hypnotized through the draft room.

That's going to be something else is going to be.

Like, dude, he can do it.

Dude, he said.

He can do it.

It's going to be these EMG waves just coming through your let's keep you know, we need you guys, we need you in Tanner.

So just be safe out there, Jeff.

As as as Bobby Kennedy Junior hasn't protected you guys from that shit yet.

Like I I assumed that that would all like the ability to hypnotize people through Wi-Fi would have been dealt with already.

Oh, that's too late, Rob.

There's nobody can help us now.

We are way too.

We are way too far advanced in technology to to be protected from that.

Like it's just, we need like an orb.

We need like a a full shield or a bunker.

That's that's what it is.

If Zuckerberg can build me a bunker I'd be safe, but otherwise I'm fucked.

His bunker in Hawaii looks ridiculous.

It does look ridiculous.

I mean, if you got the money, why wouldn't you have a fucking huge bunker in Hawaii?

Look, if you're an oligarch, you got to spend your money on something.

There are worse things, as it turns out, than giant bunkers in Hawaii to spend your money on.

Right, 100% get into bunkers, get into some main events like Einhorn, You know, there's, there's, there's, there's some ways to spread it out.

All right, we're going to get into some quick news.

Then back to the ADP analysis.

We have Kyle Finnegan back on the Nats back where he always belonged.

And it was interesting because a lot of people are like doing the oh, I wonder how he feels.

I'm like, I wonder how he feels.

He's got a $6 million job throwing a fucking baseball for 60 innings.

I wonder how he feels.

I would feel good.

What about you, Jeff?

What do you think about Kyle Finnigan going forward?

Yeah, I was kind of looking to see where he's probably going.

I one it's it is the Nats.

I know he got a bunch of saves last year, but I kind of felt like might have been a little too much like the 30.

I think it was 38.

I probably am closer to like 30.

And he's really not like an elite pitcher.

Like you're only getting saves from him.

So I think he's probably, I'd value him with the guys kind of going around like 170, maybe even a little bit later like Carlos Estevez.

I think I'd rather have Carlos Estevez, Justin Martinez now with Arizona probably around there.

Like I'm not, I have him at the end, but I think he's definitely draftable.

And my my issue is like, he just won't help you otherwise.

Like sometimes you hope hope the relievers will give you some other ratios, but he's really not that type of pitcher.

Yeah, I was looking at 2 OCS since he re signed and obviously with closers, especially in OCS, he drafts a little bit different run starts and you kind of react.

So he went 155 and 189 in two O CS since his signing.

Give context.

And I think Jeff's got this right off bang on.

Alexis Diaz went 14180, so he was after him.

Ryan Presley, one 54176.

Jordan Romano, one, 78181.

So right around those guys.

Yeah, I think I think that's AI think that's a good spot to just take a stab.

I mean, you know, he definitely started off the draft season somewhere around this range and then obviously just fell and fell and fell.

And yeah, he's definitely not going to be the guy that that lights your ratio is on fire the right way.

And it's just especially since the way he ended the season, his last 19 innings just had a 6.5 K to walk.

I don't know if that's good, but a 9.5% swing a strike, but you know, 38 saves, you know, like this I guess.

Yeah, it is nice if you get ratios and K's with your closers, but we're really just looking for that one number to hopefully, you know, get you to what you need to get to to compete in your league.

At least, you know, 50th percentile or something.

And if you can keep the job, he could definitely get you there.

Interesting.

There's something to be said about whoring, fully whoring yourself for saves, and you can look at it for one of two ways.

On the one hand, yeah, like he's a big negative and with he's negative relative to most closers and strikeouts, so you're just getting saves.

But there's something to be said about a manager who is just as fucking old school as like, I have a closer every time we have a save opportunity, even if we're a mid team.

Like Washington won what, 71 last year?

So to get 38 saves, I think he got like 98% watching saves last year.

So a wild percentage.

Some of that's lock because the clustering of the wins.

If they win three games in a row all by one run, then he doesn't get the 3rd save in a row, let's say.

So part of that is lock, but a big part of that is just a manager who's old school and he's not playing matchups.

He's not like doing messing around so as long as he stays healthy he's good enough to get 3 outs at the end of games like that's.

It's not that complicated.

I think I'd rather like Estevez than him.

But like, they're both, they're both fine.

They both could get a lot of saves.

They both could lose the job very quickly too.

They're not that good.

Yep, I agree with you.

I think if you've built up your staff and you just like looking for raw save totals, this is, you know, it's not a bad spot.

Just raw dog saves.

There's raw dog save clustering of the winds that should be your next article named Rob for for relief pictures.

For the other process, yeah, it'll be.

It'll be adding it in.

But there is something to be said like you said, 77 save which is 9th and since 2020, two.

This is a useless stat but found it interesting.

Four straight seasons of 50 plus innings and sub 4 ERA for relievers.

Only six of them in baseball and he's one of them so not too bad.

Next up on the list, Chris Bryant.

You know one swing changed it all for him this spring.

Everyone was like he's back.

He smoked the ball, he's just really crushed it.

This fifth highest exit velocity ever in baseball game further shot, he said since 2017, is anyone biting the apple?

It's been relatively free in D CS.

I have just I couldn't go there with him ever, even with it being so free.

Are we maybe thinking that he's healthy?

Jeff No.

Did he even run?

Did he run around the bases or did he like get him like a?

No.

Home run.

No, he tags somebody in he tags.

Someone else has to come in and run it.

He's just like, Nah, I'm I'm just going to like wiffle ball dude, It's it's good.

I'll just I'll just head to the dugout.

No, I have to see more like I was looking at he's been gone in one OC right now.

I get and but the other problem is like he's bad, but he's also like util only.

So you're adding a util late.

I, I you almost have to bench him to kind of see if he's good.

I guess you can start, but I think a lot of times what I just find like I have a util already by the time I get to him, everyone else kind of shies away from some of them.

So I I just have no desire for him.

None.

Of all the reasons to fade Chris Bryant, I'm not sure that he's util only as the top of my list.

Like, he really was hobbling, at least to my eyes, as he was trotting around the bases.

So it's February, but it's one of those injuries, as Jeff has has written about, that isn't suddenly getting better.

So, like, what's the argument for Chris Bryant?

He plays in Colorado and if he's in the days he is in the lineup, he's probably with all his flaws a usable player for those days.

But like for ADC, how many of those days are you going to get and are you going to time or do you just have a dead roster spot from the get go?

And I'm not even sure at this point how good a full Chris Bryant season in Colorado truly is.

Like I there's no reason to think he breaks twenty home runs if he were somehow play 140 games at this point.

He obviously is not stealing any bases and I'm not sure the batting average, even with half his whatever those games are in Colorado are like anywhere close to elite like.

So you put that all together and Nah, no, no dog.

Chris Bryant should be very thankful that Anthony Rendon exists because we don't talk about how bad the Chris Bryant contract is from the team's perspective because of Rendon.

And it's not his fault he's injured.

Like I don't think he's, I don't think he's half assing it.

Dude has a terrible injury.

I think he's try.

I think he'd love to be healthy again.

Yeah, of course.

I mean, I think that's what you make.

Rendon is different like we we probably know.

He doesn't like baseball.

Right, Yeah, he's a complete bag of shit who's admitted that.

But like you said, like you know, if there's some guys like Chris Bryant, of course he would love to be in the game and playing.

Expressed that for sure.

Rendon hadn't expressed that.

But yeah, the last 490 plate appearances of a 229 average and a 73 WRC plus, I don't think that's getting better.

Yeah, but the you till thing is whatever, but there's probably no chance he gets another, you know, eligibility totally is like Gold Glove at first.

And the outfield is is is is pretty, you know, stocked with guys that are capable.

So, yeah, Chris Brown, I'm, I'm, I'm willing to see how many people, you know, keep biting the apple if he if he just keeps pounding the ball.

I'd rather take a shot on Eloy getting a job, being healthy and being good than Chris Bryant.

I think the path to Eloy Jimenez being a top 100 player is pretty obvious because he was that 12 months ago.

The path to Chris Bryant being a top 300 player is not obvious to me.

But Eloy has a 38 1/2 percent swinging strike rate through sick plate appearances so far.

Yeah, very.

Clear.

That's all in my, in my face.

That's why you run the numbers.

Jeff well, Jeff, Jeff, Jeff brought it up, brought it up the jacket holiday.

So I was like, Oh yeah, I forgot that fan graft even has the the spring training data.

You know, I love, I love the.

Fact that I don't have to use baseball reference together training stats anymore and that fan graft it is Jeff like pass on to the powers that be.

It is great having usable even though they're meaningless and like it.

It's just going to cause people to overweight spring training stats.

I still love the fact that they're easily accessible at fan graphs.

1000% if we could get something like they have what are they?

What are the big boyfriends have like the game, not the game score but like the like the opponent rank right?

Yeah, it's in the.

It's on the list, but it's not high up.

OK, that's fair.

That's.

Cool.

We went over at this last year and they're like, yeah, we're going to do this.

They did get the college one in because that's been a huge one that they've been trying to do.

The data was garbage, garbage.

I don't know who they paid to clean it up, but that was kind of huge.

No I mean look Fan Graphs has added so many good features especially for subscribers over the last few months.

Like I think you're nitpicking if you start doing that.

Well the big one that I I know that's coming is on the split on the like the game logs is you'll be able to set your categories.

Oh, that's cool.

So you can do it like if you want velocity.

And always there.

Oh, a custom leader board for game logs.

That's pretty sweet, yeah.

Whoa, yeah.

I mean, no, keep complaining.

Nothing to complain about fan graphs at all with.

Like they can like like Bob said, they can consistently keep putting out great new features and that that that would be awesome, really awesome.

It's that's the that's the one that everyone's been pushing for and I think they're just tired and annoyed at us asking for it all the time.

No, that's great.

I mean, I, you know, I had, I had, I had Keaton Arneson on the pod and you, you know, he was, he was telling me about how, you know, he made a lot of the, about the interface changes, you know, with the player cards and stuff, which is also really great.

Like the heat maps don't look like they're from Atari anymore.

They actually look real and it's nice and functionable.

You know, you could toggle right there on the screen.

So a lot of a lot of cool stuff that I really like.

Guys are really crushing it out there.

All right, Bobby Witt said to be working on speed in the offseason.

He did some speed work.

He feels faster.

He's already the fastest man in baseball.

Obviously there was some stolen based inefficiency.

That's what he wants to work on.

Very little that he does bad, but whatever he does do the worst of, he's trying to improve.

Jeff as a royal fan, fantasy baseball guy.

What do you think?

Is Wits possible ceiling if he does get a little bit more efficient on the base path?

I kind of still think like 23.

The 49 Storm bases might be it, though.

I really think with WIT, the biggest numbers could come up as the RBI's now that they have someone in front of him in the lineup that gets on base.

I think that that's a huge one, that it's like, oh, there's someone on base, like it may like clog the bases and they might have to have some double steals or something since people are on base in front of him.

Like he doesn't have empty bases all over the place.

But I think the biggest game, yeah, for Wit's going to be with RBI's, like it's going to be huge across the board for that.

So for the steals, I kind of, I really, yeah, I think like 50, even if he's efficient, is probably going to be like the Max.

What we'll see from him.

I think he just does so much other stuff like he hits double s in home runs.

He's not like the singles guy gets on and then has to move over.

He he'll be on second base, He might not steal third base and so forth.

So I, I kind of think that might be the Max, but yeah, if he what was he efficient last year and he could have probably added seven been like almost to 40 maybe.

Yeah, put himself back to 40.

Yeah.

Yeah, that absolutely makes sense.

Yep.

Yeah, I could probably put him around there.

Yeah, and like you said, he he's he's really taken advantage of Kaufman 2 being such a good extra base hit park.

And yeah, he's just got so much power also, too.

I feel like that's an area too, like he's the bowel percentage is coming up and as the launch angle maybe creeps up, maybe he can tap into more of that.

So I do think there's a possible 4040 season laying in here.

It'll come eventually.

But he's just so good.

And it's just awesome to see that mechanism that the Royals used to.

To work on their stolen bases, which was interesting.

I don't know if you saw that and.

You have like the lights or something?

Yeah, yeah.

I saw that headline and I was just like kind of dazed out.

I've been sick a few for other people.

We talked about beforehand I was kind of sick, but it was like I saw that like Arthur about that later.

I'm not going to figure that out now.

Yeah, it's pretty cool mechanism that that that tells that indicates when usually a pitcher starts his movement that like it's just designed to get them the initial weed.

And then there's another one that designed to tell them where to go.

Because I think that's the thing we were saying with wit was like his leads.

Now that that's available in stack cast are actually like really inferior to like Otani's and everyone else.

I think it was like, I've got the the the name of the, you know, I think it was like 9 feet per second or whatever it was, but Otani's like at 11.

So he's already like further and they said rather than lying on his raw speed and I don't know if that's something they used last year because obviously they were really aggressive and good at at slinging bases.

But I do agree with the RBI chances too, especially with India at the top.

And even a guy like Kyle Isbell, like who scored 65 runs last year batting 9th, he does a decent job of getting on and you know that it just put more more in front of him too.

I really like that.

It's like a sneaky lineup.

It's not anything devastating, but I do really like the all around goodness of the the Royal lineup.

We're talking about, you know, hype guys before.

There's certainly some players who are already rising in ADP, Jeff, but who do you think right now?

Because we'll probably do this every week, but who do you think right now is like an early candidate for the guy where you get to the main event and you got your ADP up, whether you use DCS or OCS and all of a sudden this player was like, you look at the first 3 ADPS for the mains, you're like how the whoa, like this is incredible.

You know, which guy do you think right now that might possibly be that guy?

I think it's going to be a Met pitcher with that, with everyone getting hurt, right?

Like once they once we kind of figure out who it's going to be, I could see Sproke getting it.

I could see McGill.

The other one is also depending on how it works out is the Boston staff is all kind of beat up.

So if they so if they have maybe Mr.

Richard Fitz getting up there or Criswell, like whoever kind of makes that rotation might be interesting.

I think those it's those situations like that where there's some people that were sort of on the fringe, but now they've got a job moving up.

But those are the two situations I found right now.

But I'm sure there's going to be other ones.

But I kind of like either like McGill maybe moving up with the Mets and one of those two guys with Boston, maybe even Priester with Boston.

Like I I don't know which one it's going to be.

We still kind of got to figure that out.

But that's the situations I'm kind of looking at.

Yeah, I think that's a great call.

Actually.

Richard Fitz is a really good call.

I actually just just picked him in my last DC, you know, with, with this kind of the news on Bayo and and and Crawford, I know Bayo's expected to start opening day, but just both of them, you know, being possibly out and fit just was like reasonably good fill in and and ADC, you know, you especially with G Alito there and, you know, probably going to use them a little bit.

And yeah, the Mets, unfortunately, as a Met fan, I feel the pain of the early injuries, but also, yeah, that I feel like there's some sneaky, you know, back end pictures that can really provide some good fantasy.

You know, not not like stud studness, but even even like David Peterson and Tyler McGill just moving up in the depth chart.

And just, you know, I think they provided some good, good stats last year.

And I really like how they're going to look this year.

Blackburn, I didn't think he was going to be at this level.

He was kind of really regrettably didn't draft him in DC season because like the 13 shots that he had in his back, there's 13 injections and then the back surgery that we didn't really know what it was that just kind of like I was like, oh, well, what, when are we going to see this guy?

And then all of a sudden he's already doing 1 inning in a game, which I didn't think it would be.

So again, not not going to light the world on fire, but he's an effective pitcher.

He's the kind of guy like, you know, when he was available in the main events, he was scooped up and usually held while he was having his good runs.

And I think Griffin Canning will be the wild card.

I think when we first get a look at him and what the Mets will do to his pitch mix, he kind of got the, I think the ability to shoot up if he, if it looks like it's really good, you know, especially if they strike the four seamer, which is the one thing, you know, that I'm excited for.

Like Jose Soriano, he's a kind of guy.

Look at the box score, you know, you know, in the minor in in the spring training game, didn't see any 4 seamers.

And I was like, Oh yes, he finally understands.

The Angels finally understand, please don't throw that pitch.

It's just awful.

So yeah, I, I like the call there.

I think it's going to be I think it's going to be a rookie or prospect that it's just going to angle into some PT that right now is like unforeseen.

But I I see like maybe maybe if there's any indication too that Hearst dad will get more PT, you know, if they come out and actually say something where that leads to more PT for him.

I could see someone like him or someone on the Orioles, like Kobe Mayo, if he they decide to trade Mount Castle, something like that, you know, But the pitchers are really, really where I think it's a good shot for someone to rise up.

All right, Rob, Rob stepped out for a little bit.

So should we just head on to the ADP stuff, Jeff?

Yeah.

Yeah, cool.

All right, we're starting off today's list with Mr.

Jackson Holiday.

I pulled the DCADP for the last two weeks and he is next for us to talk about.

You know, obviously had a shit year, but when he came back supposedly he added this toe tap and he was a lot different in in his last showing in the minors and in the majors.

So carried it over into spring training.

But like you mentioned, the 75% swinging strike rate.

That's that's nuts.

Dude, that's that's, that's that's a lot.

Even for a small, even for a small sample, that's just strikingly alarming.

Yeah, 4 plate appearances, so.

It's like you're missing you're screen and missing 75% of the time when you're up there.

Dude, that's like, OK, I'll let.

Aside a small sample alert, but like you said, it's it's it's it's you know, you don't want to see you don't want to see him next to here's who he's next to.

Jake Lamb, Matt Croon, Grant McRae, Aaron Shunk, Daz Cameron, Stone, Garrett.

Like you don't want to be next to those guys.

No, I, I'm, I'm, I'm out on him.

I don't, I don't see the upside.

I'm worried there, there's some Joe Adele or Jerry clinic here and I think it's just going to be he may get it together by the end of the year, but he just doesn't hasn't shown any signs of he's made some improvements.

There's all kinds of stories that this offseason of what him and his dad and his brothers were doing.

But I, I'm, I'm out.

There's just, I think it's kind of a wasted pick here.

I, I, I think that I know he's one of the top guys, but I've seen other prospects fail and he just does not seem ready.

Yeah, it's I think to me it's one of those cases where like, you know, I want to stay like a similar maybe skill set to like Wanda Franco, but also one where, you know, it took a while for us to really believe, you know, and just find enough things to say, OK, like I'm ready to I'm ready to take this shot with him.

I mean, one thing I would say about him though, is that he definitely has shown that he can keep the ball in like the upper velocity bands like his 90th percentile would be was really strong and he is quick with the Sprint speed, but he obviously got to get on base right to to really do that.

Swing decisions weren't terrible either.

60th percentile in the Seagull swing decisions.

So there's there's there's enough here.

I've stayed off in DCS because I I feel second base is really deep and there's guys behind them that are just consistent contributors like Brandon Lau and Castro and Donovan and India.

You know, there's just plenty of guys to choose from to go there.

I think I'll be a little bit more interested in a fab league, but I think I'm still I'm still going to be waiting another season.

Like he has the ability to hit the ball hard.

He's still young, but you know, there is also a 0, not a 0% chance that he's not good enough, you know, to start, start the season and they just throw, you know, Urias there at second base or Westbrook moves to 2nd and Cody and Kobe Mayo gets a shot.

You know, so and like you mentioned, Kelnick's, I'm not going to go there yet, but I'll go there in the fact like with the psyche of of of of being moved down to the minors a couple of times and what that will do for him.

So I think it's a fine spec.

I understand why people are doing it, But to me, I'd rather I'd rather wait another year for him and see what he's got this year.

Next up on the list, we got Mr.

You Darvish going at pick 220, as early as 192, as late as 244.

I love the pitch ability and the fact that he's still on a good team.

I think this is a decent ADP for him.

Yeah, this is fine.

We we you kind of know what you're getting there might be a little upside if you get some velocity back.

But this his talent and compared to the other pictures going around here, it's the same.

All these pitchers are flawed.

They're this late, either they're bad or they're has some injury histories.

And I think you just draft him and you take the innings you can get and right now and then if he's hurt for a long period of time, you just move on.

Yeah, Yeah, I think it's a perfect, this is a great.

You know, they don't really consider an upside play with someone who's like as old as him, who's been around as long as him.

But really like in this when you're when you're in this range of pitchers and you see you Darvish the name, it's not it's not difficult to just be like, oh, wow, like that's this is a good range to get him.

You know, he still had really strong K minus walk.

You know, when he came back after his little bit of, you know, family problems or slash injury.

You know, the last five starts he had a 385 Sierra 18% K minus walk, 13.7% swinging strike.

So I actually think this may be just one of the possible really good profitable picks past 200 for pitches.

And again, he just doesn't have to be a stud for you.

He's just going to compliment the top guys.

And it's the perfect guy for me that we got Rob back.

We're talking about we hit Jackson Holiday and you Darvish.

So if you want to comment on on any of those.

I wanted to talk.

I'm really sorry about that.

There's one person in the world that when they call, I have no choice but to take the the call, and that was the person who called just at the time we were recording.

It's all good.

You're supposed to be not podcasting anyway, so it's.

It's actually my CEO.

What did you guys decide on Bobby Witt being able to steal more basis because I had some interesting stuff on that not.

Oh yeah, no, God, please go ahead.

We, we were just saying how like we he could potentially just get back to that 4050 range.

Jeff touched on the fact that now that he's got a number like a real true lead off hitter in front of them, like the RBI, chances can boost up.

But get.

Absolutely.

So one of one of the things I like looking at from baseball reference, which we were talking about 15 minutes ago with people is they're the only ones that I know of that have stolen base opportunities.

What stats stolen base opportunities means is number of times you're on first base or second base with the following base open.

And so you could steal a base and they they discount the possibility of double steals because it's such a, a, a rare thing.

So for stolen base opportunities, not surprisingly, Bobby Witt last season, both because he gets on base so much and he had so many played appearances of players who stole, who attempted 20 or more stolen bases, was sixth highest in stolen base opportunities.

It was interesting to me for a guy who stole 30 bases obviously and attempted 43 stolen bases, is his percentage of stolen base attempted was only 15 percent.

15% isn't like freakishly low, but it's certainly not high.

And if you raise his attempt rate to 20%, which is a pretty medium attempt rate for a speedster, especially a young speedster like Bobby Witt, then obviously he can easily get and you accept the fact that his success rate usually regresses up like Bobby.

What's not a bad base stealer?

So him getting caught 12 out of 43 attempts could should be a little bit better than that.

It's a long way of saying that just math wise, even if it's like bullshit that he's gotten any quicker through his training in the offseason, he could quite easily steal 50 plus bases this year.

And you put that together and I think that's some like hidden upside for Bobby Witt for a guy who obviously doesn't need a lot of hidden upside.

I don't know if I've just repeated everything that you and Jeff have already said.

No, no, that's that's that's absolutely great point.

I I was he he didn't he wasn't like super successful.

And yeah, and like you said, he really doesn't have a high Dome based opportunity temperate.

He texts the guys like Vopy and him and it's the guys who steal a lot, but like not really where you would think he's leading off and he just has all this chance to run and go and.

The guy, the guy in the first round, we don't talk about first round players very often who I think has the most stolen base upside that again, I don't.

I haven't.

Just haven't listened to a lot of podcasts.

So maybe everybody's talking about this.

I think Gunnar Henderson has to change almost nothing and he goes from a 20 to a 30 stolen base.

The guy, and it's not that the projection should be reflecting this.

Gunner Henderson got had 315 stolen base opportunities last year.

He only attempted a stolen base on less than 8% of those opportunities and he's both young enough and I think as a team there's aggressive enough.

Like they they obviously have a lot of good bats, but lots of teams have lots of good bats.

He doesn't need to go to 20% if he just goes to like 15% stolen base opportunities like for Gunner Henderson to become a forty stolen base guy takes almost nothing changing.

And I think it's just for almost regression for him to get higher and that's not baked into Gunner's price whatsoever.

Not that he's cheap.

I mean, again, he's obviously a first round player, but I think he is the like the sneakiest first round player to finish first overall this year, if that's if that makes sense.

Right.

Yeah, no, with an extra 10 stolen bases like now he's can challenge, you know, the guys in front of him with Jay, Ram and Judge and Ellie in total.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

Not a great query and I know you don't like hearing this Rob and he's hit like 42 home runs in the first 3 days of the season.

But there is no scenario to my mind that Ellie De la Cruz's stolen bases don't go down this year.

The only way they don't go down is if he gets better on I'm getting onto first base.

Cruz only had 151 stolen base opportunities last year and in 696 plate appearances which is wildly low.

We all know the reasons why he has so few stolen base opportunities, but like 55% storm base attempt is beyond peak Ricky Henderson.

And you can say, well, but that's who Ellie is.

Ellie's a crazy man.

And it's like there there have been lots of crazy, there have been Vince Coleman's, there have been lots of crazy men who pop up for one season, but it regresses down.

And I think like Ellie De La Cruz, if he started stealing at like the next highest rate already loses like 15 stolen bases.

Like the next most aggressive baserunner last year was Jose Caballero, who was at 40%.

So you drop them just from 54 to 40, nevermind like 30%, which would be like the fifth highest rate and just loses a lot of aces really quickly.

Nevermind playing time regression, like 700 played appearances will come down.

It just will.

I'm not saying that's not an argument saying fade Ellie De La Cruz just so nobody like says Rob, how can you say the greatest hitter in baseball history is like base fantasy player?

Baseball history is a fade.

I'm not saying he's not a first round player.

It's that people look at 67 stolen bases and assume they're getting 67 stolen bases.

I think you're way more likely to get like 3537 stolen bases, maybe 40 stolen bases with lots of power and a great season.

Like he's still easily a first round player at that point.

But I think you're way more likely to get 35 to 40 stolen bases than you are 60 plus bases this year.

He stole third 20 times, too.

It's so impressive.

It's really wild.

Yeah.

Like he had a 41% still make the opportunity a temporary in his rookie season and maybe you have the qualified filter out, but you forgot about Daryl Blanco.

He's at 45%.

Mr.

Pintron, specialist.

You're you're you're I'm I apologize that it's a Blanco.

A Blanco disrespect.

I must have some.

No, you know what I do?

You know what I have?

I have AI have a plate appearance.

You get too many noisy guys if you don't have some kind of a player, some kind, some kind of a plate appearance filter on.

Sorry, I just hijacked the podcast that I had to skip out on, which is obnoxious, I know it's.

It's absolutely fine.

It's a.

Very on, on, on you Darvish.

The one thing I'd say on you Darvish getting back to what the question you actually asked for me is, I would rather Clark Schmidt than you Darvish going back-to-back.

I think the you Darvish like do Darvish may be able to get by on like moxie and dial and 14 pitches for quite a while.

But when your strikeout rate has gone from 31 to 29 to 25 to 24 to 23, it is possible at 38 with the next number in that sequence goes back up to 26.

But it's also real possible the next number is 19.

And I would love you Darvish to keep going, but the train may be coming towards an end.

That's that's absolutely, absolutely fair for sure.

Yeah, he cuz like you said, he's at that age.

I, I, I still think he's in line.

I think at this spot in the draft to like not really be a total bomb for you, but also be, you know, a possible just has to like even if he just replicates last year, which, you know, think he's capable of, you'll get some good value.

I mean, but he could also disappear like it did last year.

And and just really cost you either guy you have to hold or you got you have to drop and consider getting back onto your team later.

Did you want to say anything on Jackson holiday?

Yeah, it feels outrageously early to me.

Where I did you guys say we'd love Jackson Holiday?

We're all in on that, Jackson.

Holiday like.

Right before the train the the 28 WRC plus versus left-handed pitchers jumps out to me Steamer with their new steamer split stats easily available projection for a 220 three 15317 versus lefties.

Jorge Matteo has a 390 slugging percentage against lefties projected when you're slugging average is lower than Jorge Matteo's.

That's not awesome.

And more serious, Raymond Urias is a much better projected hitter against lefties than Jackson Holiday.

So look, he's a, he's a pedigree prospect.

He obvious and he's he's he's young, he can obviously get way better.

But I think at this price you're really paying for name value and hopes and prayers instead of production.

Yep, that's exactly what we pretty much came to the head with.

Like it's almost like a like that Wander Franco where we were like just drafted him every year and just in hopes he would take the next step.

But they then then when he showed like that that he OK, this may be the year that following year we jumped on it and I think that'll be it with holiday.

We just have to see a little bit more from him for sure.

Mr.

Gleber Torres, good old days of drafted in the top 80 are gone.

He's at pick 225 left.

The Yankees goes to a bad hitter's park with the Tigers.

Jeff, you have any faith in Glee Vitoris this year?

I think I'd be fine with him.

The one thing I do like from him at this point is kind of you almost need that 20 home run power from to kind of keep up pace and he gives you that at least he should be close to it with second base.

There's really not a lot of second baseman left that have it and he's not a killer in batting average.

He's giving you some steals.

I think he's just a fine person to add to your team and I, I don't know if there's any really real upside at this point.

I don't know if there's any real downside.

It's just kind of like, these are the stats you're going to hope to get and I'd be happy with it.

It's so a lot of people were really high on Glaber going into last season and really thought like there's a breakout coming.

It had two pretty good years.

But like there were there were serious fantasy guys, serious NFPC guys who were all in on Glaber.

And last year was obviously a disappointing season.

And I think it was a disappointing season to to Glaber because like he was going to be a hot, hot free agent and hot, hot free agents don't sign with Detroit anymore for not quite the contract that he was hoping for.

Obviously one year deal, but labour's like shitty line.

Last year 8015634257 was still like 153rd on the player Raider.

It wasn't a disaster.

It wasn't what you wanted.

You didn't say like why did you win your league?

Rob Dipietro is Glaber Torres.

That why my league, But it wasn't a disaster either.

And it feels like he's such an afterthought now.

And the reality is like, I don't know if last year, it's hard to say last year's his floor, but he's 28 years old and it feels like last year was is his sort of floor.

And I don't think his upside is like 2019 happy fun ball, 38 home runs type of ceiling.

But I think 20232513 for

20/22/20, 4:10 even playing in Detroit instead of the Yankee Stadium isn't crazy.

And that's a top 100 player.

And I think that like he's going to hit second most likely in front of green.

So he's going to get the plate appearances as long as he's healthy.

So I, I sort of think there is a bit of upside here with with Glaber just doing what he did like the two previous seasons with a pretty good floor too.

So I think he's a pretty good pick here.

All right, Yeah, I was one of those guys last year.

I really love Glaber.

I wasn't going to name names Bob.

I I was definitely he was one of my one of my most rostered guys probably have a little bit of a a burn bias from him.

I just don't really like the move to Detroit.

I know he's still young.

He still could possibly have that.

Oh, I'm here to show them what they're missing.

Maybe the fact that he could fucking have facial hair now will will really make him grow as a player.

You know, because you know, gruff plus is is is huge in these streets, but I don't know, I I think I'm I'm going to be out out out even at this great cost, even like if the projections are met and he will be a plus value.

I'm just I'm no, I'm just dancing around with other options at this point.

I'm just like the.

Big, the big challenge is you need speed from your middle infield.

Like unless you unless you get an LE or you'll have like big speed and like he doesn't like, and we'll talk about the next guy.

I think this is the challenge too.

He doesn't really move the needle category wise anywhere.

Maybe he's plus power for a second baseman, but I think that like most people, I think he slips because people are like, he doesn't really do much for me.

Right, and the Tigers also too have a 4.6% stolen base opportunity attempt rate as a team, which was the 6th lowest in baseball.

And I just don't know if he will get enough of a green light to get to even 10 or 15.

So I'm just a little worried about there.

And also like the 90th percentile exit of velocity has just been like just falling enough for me to just know, like, all right, even the bowel rate, you know, it's just it's on the wrong trend.

It's trending down and I just you know, eggs and even its exit velocity on fly balls you when it does get it up in the air wasn't really extremely strong.

So I don't know.

I'm fly ball distance to 306 feet, which was his lowest in like 3 years.

He just seems to be losing a little bit of pop, but obviously, like you said, just like that baseline line he gives you will be evaluate here.

But I'm I'm I'm looking elsewhere this year.

Sorry, glaver.

Next up, Mr.

Lourdes Gourriel, pick two 26197 min 260 Max in the last 11 DCS.

Nice all around skill set.

Manager says we may play him less this year though.

Jeff, is that just bullshit speak or what?

I think they had their team right now is if healthy is kind of has like an extra guy or so I think that that's where they stand right now and just trying to get, I think that's where the manager speak is.

I think it's across the whole team that we just have too many players which everyone wants to go in that way because people get healthy.

I mean, we'll get hurt and that'll work out.

I think the one thing that just brings Guriel down is like, I have him valued so much higher is the batting average.

He's one where I just, I found out that I have no problems taking Schwarberg because players like Gurriel are available later and no one wants them.

And where he can provide.

It's not 300 batting average, but he's A3280 for his career, 279 hitting around 20 home runs with five stolen bases.

And he's one where if I pair him with someone else that doesn't have the batting average, I can leave it up.

So no, I actually kind of like him.

It's he's kind of one where it's not going to be perfect.

I've kind of run into problems with me where maybe I don't get the guy like this, but I found out that later on, like in drafts, in drafts so far this year, batting average is the one category I can find late.

So I'm definitely take hits on it early and then hope to make it up later.

Guriel was one that helps solve that problem.

Yeah, he finished as the 80th best hitter last year with an 18, seven, 279 line.

The interesting thing about the whole he made play less He's never gotten to 600 plate appearances in his career.

So it's not like he's been a workhorse that has been playing a ton ever.

It's just not who he is.

He's not the Marcus Simeon play every day leading off got a ton of compiled stats.

I think the the I think I think that you nailed on the reason why he goes late is when his the closest thing he has to a carrying tool in fantasy, the batting average and people are skeptical.

The batting average is sticky if you're not like a, an elite, elite batting average guy, but it's I don't think this, I don't think the research pack set up.

I think it's as sticky as any of the other stats.

It can be noisy, obviously with bad noise, but but that's true about lots of things.

So I I'm and as we talked about together already, unlike second base outfield, like there are not when you get to the Curiel point, there are not a lot of full time outfielders left at that point who you want to roster.

So Griel is not just like will help you in batting average and like not kill you across the board.

He's also when you get to this point, you look down on the list and it's like platoon bat, platoon flat going to kill me.

Always injured platoon bat, so he also plays most days and even if he goes from like 550 played appearances to 525, he's most days going to be in there, so pretty good.

Yeah, yeah, I think I think I think every guy everything you guys listed is exactly what makes Gorriel attractive.

The batting averages is really nice.

He's also made an intent to pull fly balls more.

His percentile across the league in 2022 was 26th percentile, 2020 three 52nd last year, 80th percentile.

So if he can even tap into like a better, you know, flight path out to give me even just pack on more homers that way swimming decisions are really good.

So and he makes a ton of contact, doesn't strike out.

He's definitely a good target here for exactly what he's intended for, batting average.

And I think a lot of these guys here, like even Glaber has got that tool.

Next guy Alec Burleson can provide that or guy a little bit later, Brendan Donovan, but seems to be like the, you know, the like, hey, let's get a batting average guy sort of range, but let's pivot to Alec Burleson had a really big year last year.

Anyone who picked them well in the 5-6 hundreds of DC's really, really benefit from him.

So, Jeff, what's the outlook for Alec Burleson this season?

I'm off of off of him at this point.

I mean, he's going to be a platoon DH at this point.

As long as everyone stays healthy.

Like with all the plans that Saint Louis has and they've talked about, he's going to be face righties as the DH.

At least those games when he starts, like they probably won't change him out.

So he'll start, but he will also won't get the plate appearances he won't come into.

Maybe he might get some later, like I don't know if they'd sit Contreras.

I don't know how they're all going to work it.

But I mean, he's been horrible against Lefty, so there's a reason they platoon him.

But I, I, there's other outfielders I'll take later, like Newtbar's going after him and Newtbar's supposed to be starting all the time.

I'll take Newtbar on Saint Louis before I'll take Burleson.

So now he's just a hard pass.

I think he's going possibly even 100 picks too early.

Yeah, I, I don't know if Burlson's an actually good baseball player is my concern.

So like as Jeff says, he has a 49 career WRC plus versus left-handed pitchers.

And even if you're a guy who believes that, that doesn't stabilize, that's super noisy.

That's what he has done so far.

He has a 34th percentile.

Seeger, look at me.

Rob quoting Seeger.

I love it baby.

Let's go A.

42 percentile, 90th percentile exit velocity.

Those aren't terrible numbers, but they are terrible numbers if you're like platoon DH.

And it's not like he kills righties.

Like if I were if if if if.

I'm going to pick a platoon bat this early and it's late but it's still early in the draft.

I want at least a guy who I knows when he is in against right-handed pitchers is going to fucking mash against these righties.

He's a one O 7 career WRC plus against righties, so 7% above average.

And he's not an outfield.

Like he's a shit outfielder defensively, statistically at least so far.

She put that all together and it's like why?

If the cards are so weird right now, and I know the plan is for to do exactly what they say they're going to do, Badham probably 2nd and he will be the DH against all righties.

But when I do the analysis, I'm like, if he has a bad April, I'm not sure that they don't just put that aside and have different options.

I don't know that they're better options with different options.

So all of that to say, I have no interest whatsoever in Burleson.

And if he somehow breaks out, then congratulations whoever did have interest in it.

Yeah, Yeah, you, you guys nailed everything I was going to say right there.

I I haven't drafted him at all this season and just a lot of too many guys in that roster.

And like you pointed out, Rob, just not really exceptional skill sets across the board that could bank on.

We'll go 2 catches back-to-back at pick 230-1233.

Carter Wong, Ryan Jeffers.

What do you guys got here?

Do you prefer one?

Do you like both?

Dislike any Jeff?

I I think I like it.

Kind of depends on what your needs are at this point.

Just looking at it, God Wong had a good year last year, but I don't know how much I trust it.

You're having that 280 average.

Premier catcher was huge with eight steals.

Even if he and 13 home runs like that's if you get that again, it's would be great.

I don't know how much I believe that, but he did bring down the strikeout rate.

I think he's fine to get the upside is last year.

The downsides probably like maybe similar counting stats, but probably with like a 250 average with Jeffers, it's just kind of a different skill set.

Like you're going to get probably the 20 home runs if he's the full time catcher, but you're going to have close to like probably a 230 average like you're going to have to make up the batting average.

So I think it's kind of like at this point, oh, do I need some power?

My batting average is good.

You can go for Jeffers and if you need some speed and possible average and go for long.

So I I don't think it's a bad place for you, the one to go at catcher.

It's just, it's just completely different skill sets.

Yeah, I I think, Rob, you and I are going to be on a on the same side on this.

I'd much prefer Jeffers here.

I think Jeffers is a legit good hitter.

Not not to overstate the importance of somebody's Seger, but like he, he has for a catcher, pretty good.

A catcher going this late, pretty good seeker, pretty good exit velocity.

I think he's a pretty good hitter, whereas I'm not sure Wong is that good a hitter.

That being said, I really like the fact that they're going back-to-back in terms of how real drafts work out because if I miss out on Jeffers, if somebody jumps him 7 spots, but I've been waiting to pounce on my catcher here, Having Wong there is a backup option who I'm perfectly fine having in drafts gives me a bit of a safety net and there's some other catchers going later as well.

So it's not like I'm going kind of naked into drafts saying I must get Jeffers at or around ADP and if I miss out, I guess I'm just punting catcher.

There were other good options and one's a fine option.

Like the the tiny bit of speed from your catcher is nice.

I think you will play a fair bit.

Like I don't think they have six other catching prospects about to emerge.

So that gives you a little bit of playing time optionality.

But certainly if I were in an auction and they were at the same cost, I take Jeffers 20 times out of 20 / 1.

Yep, I absolutely agree with that Wong.

The good thing about him is really like you just said, Rob is nobody behind him at all.

So you could really count on those high played appearances.

Again, I I'm assuming does have some three-year trends that are going the wrong way, including Seger 90th percentile EV.

But like Jeff said, he's, you know, get some bags and I mean, he's got a what, a 340 Babbitt now for his career with over like 900 plate appearance.

So maybe the batting average stays somewhat good.

But yeah, I'm a big Jeffers fan.

Like we saw some improved quality, improved contact quality, lowered the K rate.

The quality of contact came down a little bit.

But I think most of that was driven in the second-half when he admittedly said he was just a little bit tiring down because this is the first season that he really got that 400 plate appearance bump.

But I just love the fact that he could hit, hit the ball really hard, make good swing decisions.

And now he's making better contact.

And I wouldn't be surprised if there's a nice like 25025 Homer season waiting for us Jeffers.

And he's like, honestly the last guy I feel comfortable with drafting as like a catcher one if I waited that long.

I feel I feel good with Jeffers in this spot.

So totally agree there.

Jesus Sanchez pick 232, He'd been climbing the ranks.

I've been in some online championship draft where people are very aggressive on Jesus.

Got a little bit of the knucklehead factor like Jay-Z likes to point out, but the skills are absolutely real.

Can he gain some time versus lefties?

I think the path to that would be in center field if he takes over that job.

Jeff, what do you got for Jesus?

Let's look at some numbers here.

We got 001316.

Those are some stolen base numbers over the years.

Where the hell did this 16 come from?

Like like, like you kind of knew what you were getting last year, then all of a sudden like what's the number going to be this year on that, You know, on the stolen bases, is it going to go back down?

Is he stealing?

I think that's the big number like and.

Tomorrow is that the team went from 4.8 stolen base opportunity a temporary to 7.7.

So there was a little bit of a team contact thing.

But I agree that's a lot.

That's a big difference.

Yeah, it's like he was Alec Burleson before this.

Like it's, it's a platoon bat.

He cannot hit lefties at all.

Like, you do not want to be in there against a lefty.

His career batting average was like.

Ridiculous against 187 over his career so far against lefties, like did you just 42 WRC plus against them?

She's just bad against them.

So you really just don't even want him in there.

So he's probably going to platoon or if he doesn't platoon, he's just going to drag down your batting average.

So batting average is going to be worse than the career numbers.

Even state I'm I'm probably out the other thing with the Marlins is he's sitting in the middle of the lineup he did last year and he has a combined 124 runs plus RB is 60 runs and 64 RB is like and he had one of his best years like he's just going to be kind of a drag.

But I said the one saving grace will be is if he can repeat those stolen bases.

I just, that's the big thing.

If the 16 stolen bases happen again, he's a great value.

But if they go back down to five, I want nothing.

I mean, there's just no way he'll, I don't want anything to do with him here.

Like it's just a really tough guy to evaluate.

Yeah, I mean the line up, sure You don't make it a look, you want the third hitter in this Miami lineup when you get it, you got to, you have no choice at this cost to get the third hitter in the Miami lineup.

That is not the argument for him.

Like if you're a spreadsheet drafter, then it's hard not to look at like his aggregated projections, which is basically a 2010 to 50.

Compare him to the other players who are projected to go 2010 to 250.

Cody Bellinger, Ian Hap, like pretty good names and guys who are going a lot earlier and conclude even though he's playing in this like potentially and I don't I thought this is not hyperbole.

Historically bad lineup and conclude huh, 2010 250 at this price.

That's a nice deal at outfield.

I don't need him playing against lefties because it's baked in.

That's all in five hundred 530 plate appearances.

So he sits against lefties and gets me 2010 to 50.

If it's going into a weekend and they're facing 2 lefties, I get him out of there and I'm getting even better than that.

But I agree with Jeff.

Like I have more confidence that Ian Hap is going to put up 2010 to 50 then I do Jesus Sanchez is going to put up 2010 to 50.

I think there are big error bars on these, these projections.

The even, I don't know if it's the, it's the external skew.

Like I just don't believe it.

I don't, I don't know which skew is which, but there's a skew on this.

Even though all the projections are basically exactly the same.

I think all the projections could be really full of shit on him because there are, it's like it's a three-year average, but they're also projecting him to hit twenty home runs, which he's never done before.

So like if you're a spreadsheet drafter, he's a real nice buy.

I just write down those stats and pencil, not pen when you're like counting on getting them.

The old skew.

I'm trying to see where the skew is.

Is it the skew of the dim?

I forget what the dim is.

Stop it.

Whatever everybody understood what I was saying.

Doesn't matter.

Well, I, I I I sorted from the top of skew and and.

Stop with the fucking skew.

Like all the projections are the same.

So one of his skews is very, very small.

It's the other one.

It's standard deviation.

Like there's whatever.

Don't make me fucking hypnotize you across this like platform here 'cause I'll hypnotize you if I have to.

Incredible.

Yeah, man, I'll I mean, I'll just add to hey, Zeus.

Yeah, I think the stone bases, especially on a on a Sprint speed that's not very fast.

He just like if you're the hit the shit out of the ball kind of guy and he doesn't make terrible swing decisions.

You know, you could I could see a path to the 1st 20 season home run.

I think at this point of the draft when outfield starts to get a little slim pickings, just going to a guy that might give you even what he did last year, right.

If if what he did last year was is the baseline where he was what $10 on the fan graft play Raider, which was 157 overall that that that's still solid and he's 27.

This is the the peak athletic years they say.

So I'm in on Hey, Zeus at this at this price.

Next we'll move down to, let's see, Nicola Dolo picked 233 was really Ricky Vaughn yesterday.

Wild thing, but can't, can't, can't stay healthy.

But Jeff really has the goods underneath the hood.

What are you doing for goods underneath the hood?

I don't think I should say that out loud.

But anyway, what do we think about Nicola Dolo, Jeff?

Maybe he does have the goods under the hoods.

We don't know.

We don't know.

That would give him another plus, you know, in a column like.

But we all stuff stuff.

Stuff plus plus, if you will.

That's really the stuff.

Plus we want it.

Yeah.

So much fun with you guys.

This is so.

This is great.

For Ladolo, I think he's actually one I could see like being one of those ones that really move up.

Like if if he just starts dominating and looks healthy and everything, people could be start dreaming on, you know, 160 innings, but then they're dreaming on 160 innings.

The wrong thing to be dreaming on with him.

I don't really mind him at this point.

Like he's had his rate stats.

I mean he his ER as bad he kind of got lit up that one year with home runs in a small sample, but a career 353S with 253 innings.

Like there's the talents there.

I think this is kind of an injury 1 and I think like the shower the league, the more likely I would take a chance on him and see what happens.

But I'm, I'm not, I think, yeah, it's just kind of like you might have to just see if he's healthy, just be able know you have to move on.

And maybe the deeper the league you get in, you don't want to have to take that injury chance.

But the shallower of the league, I think it's someone worth taking that chance on.

Yeah, I mean, he had a better Sierra last year than Hunter Green did than his teammate, which is, which is interesting.

I'm not.

I'm not a big Babs guy.

Ron Chandler's like drafting system, but I think there is something to be said about like having a risk bucket with pitchers in particular.

And I think that in like a 15 team, in a main event, if you want to take like one injury risk pitcher and by injury risk pitcher, it could be Spencer Strider, it could be Jacob degrom, it could be Nicola Dolo, then I think you can.

It's much cheaper to take a risk on Nicola Dolo than it is on, let's say, Jacob degrom or Spencer Strider or lots of other guys.

The upside's not quite the same, you'd say.

I think where you make a mistake is if you have 5 Nicola Dolos and Spencer Striders and Jacob degroms and hope it's all going to work out and look at the staff if everybody stays healthy.

But if you come into this point of the draft and have like a real rock solid staff, or at least you think you do because they're pitchers, we don't know, but you don't have a bunch of the clear.

If you want to put red flags, pick the 20 pitchers who have who are clear red flags and you don't have any of those.

The guys, I think Nicola Dolo is a real good bet.

He's, I think if we were to aggregate everybody's like breakout pick tweet threads.

He's on lots of people's breakout tweet threads for obvious reasons.

If he can stay healthy, get a little bit lucky and just like put everything together, then he could easily be a top 25, top 30 starting pitcher even in that ballpark.

But that's a lot of ifs for Nicola Dolo, so big upside, big downside, who knows.

But we all know what the talent is with Nicola Dola.

Yeah, he's actually Speaking of the Babs risk assessment.

He's in the top 10 for anyone in the top 250 picks for pitchers in in risk assessment.

So it's definitely, but he also falls in on the skill side in buckets with guys who are going in the top 101 twenty.

So and that's Sierra and it came on his walk for his career, definitely reflect that.

You know, he's he's got he's got some good pitch mix.

He got two pitchers that are above the 85th percentile swinging strike rate.

So he could he's got the goods.

It's just the park and it's the injuries, but also, you know, I think it's a great shot to really get one of those breakout type pitchers.

Obviously we say that a lot about him, but this is really a good spot for him.

And also, you know, like last year in main events, he was picked 232.

That's his exact price right now for someone, you know, like who's shown the skill sets.

Obviously the surface numbers aren't there, but lots of ways you can go with nickel.

Dola, I'll be taking a shot if he present the opportunity for me.

Brendan Donovan, second base outfield going at pick 235 as early as 211.

Latest 249.

One of the better batting average guys to grab in this part of the draft.

Jeff, what do you think about B Donovan?

One guy who I think we don't have to worry about patooning on the Cardinals.

No, he's won again.

Like the batting average.

Like if you're waiting, this is, again, another one that I always find that's like if you run the standing gains points, you figure out where his value is.

He's always floating right near the top.

So that's another reason like another guy that I'll take batting average risks early in the draft because these guys just kind of float here.

Like that's his carrying tool and that's never sexy.

But I mean, he's played three, almost three full seasons and has a 280 average.

So like, this is what he does, the home runs, it's kind of what you're kind of getting at this point at about anywhere from about 15 to 20.

He's probably closer to 15.

His plate appearances are a little low.

I think people are are at least looking at fan grass.

They're probably trying to spread them around that playing time on the Cardinals.

But I don't think Donovan's an issue with that.

So it's kind of on your team need, but so the dual positions are great.

He would be someone that would be like ideal.

You really don't want to grab like a bench bat at this point, but he's one that I would love to have on my team just to move around and mid weeks kind of you can move from infield to outfield and kind of just get the best match up.

So like I said, I usually give those guys a little bit of a bump.

So I kind of like that with him.

So no, I I have no problems with drafting him here, especially if you need batting average.

Agree, don't have anything to add.

I think it's a build, the decision whether you want to take him again, you need.

It's not just do I need batting average, it's do I have enough speed and power already that I don't need to chase a Brendan Lau or a speed middle infielder here.

I need batting average.

But if you have a Nick Schwarber, I don't know even know who Nick Schwarber is.

Kyle Schwarber.

Sounds like an actor.

Yeah, exactly.

He he he was snubbed for the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor on Nick Schwarber.

But if it if you have the right build and you have the right stats, then he's like a perfect player for certain teams.

Yep, and I would say one like one thing about him though, don't just like say at or even like pre draft.

I'm getting Brendan Donovan there because you know, there's a lot of Brendan Donovan fans and you don't want to like build around hopefully getting him later in the draft.

He's just one of those guys, like you said, Rob, you get to it and you're like, oh, this is the perfect team to take Brendan Donovan with 100%.

We got Bowden Francis Toronto blue Jay pick 235 as early as two O 5.

Our former launch angle Co host Dustin Mccomas compared him to Bryce Miller going very, very earlier than down in Francis.

Let's let's kick it off with the blue Jay guy, Rob Silver.

Let's what do you what, what do we got with Bowden Francis here?

Is this a a slam dunk?

Why is he going this late can considering he pitched near no hitters last year?

No look, look back in the olden days when we were all stupid, but out in Francis would have come off of his second-half last year, off of his season last year and been so fucking smoking hot and sexy and everybody would have been so excited about brown and Francis 330 ERA because back then people would have led with his ERA.

But like, he he was so good.

He doesn't walk guys.

They wouldn't have stopped at Miller.

It would have been like, like he's this is this is a guy who you just project his innings back over like 200 innings.

He was going deep into games and dream on to him seventh round pick.

But now it's annoying.

People aren't stupid, or at least we're stupid in different ways.

And they're not chasing him and they see the projections.

Projections are always going to have a tough time with a guy like Bowden Francis.

If you buy that he improved, kind of broke out and like he's not there's the Blue Jays clearly do not think he is as good as Bowden Francis was in the back half of last year.

But he has a 377 career Sierra over just 140 innings.

So it's a small sample.

Some of that is obviously in relief.

So you can discount it how you want to discount it.

I, I this is what I would say.

I think he is closer to the Sierra pitcher.

So he's not the 330 ERA pitcher.

I don't think he's the 4-5 pitcher either.

The back thinks he is.

I think if you pay for his kind of Sierra numbers, which is, you know, a 375 to 4 ERA type of pitcher with pretty good control and not horrendous strikeout numbers, right?

2022% strikeout, 23% strikeout is certainly not elite, but it's also not bad bad.

I think that's fine.

And that's sort of right here in the draft.

So I neither think it's outrageous that he's going this late nor therefore, like chase him.

You got to get him.

But nor do I think, like, man, I can't believe people are paying for his stats from last year because he'd be going a lot easier.

So I think it's fine.

Are there pitchers I like a lot more that are going later?

Of course they are.

The problem is, as I get to Las Vegas now, that everybody's stupid fucking smart and Jeff Zimmerman publishes lists of all these pictures.

Every single fucking picture that's going after pick 300.

It's not like guys with the last name Holmes are going in Vegas where they were going in eight ADP.

So like all we all have the same here are 5 sneaky starting pictures I want late and none of us are getting them late so they're all leapfrog and boat in Francis by the time we get to Vegas.

So if he's like my 7th starting pitcher, I'm fine with that, but I don't want him as my like 4th starting pitcher.

Yeah, I, I think that's, that's fair.

Jeff, what do you think?

Yeah, it it'll actually, I was just writing in a bunch of stuff, possible process stuff.

It's just like, no, it's so tough to evaluate these guys that were like relievers and then start transferring over to starters and projections just have no idea what to do with them.

And I thought about just trying to look into how, if there's any better way to look at these guys because I, I, I think that's the one biggest void.

If a guy's just a constant starter, he's always a starter.

I think projections kind of nail that and see with relievers, it's these guys that do both.

And then possibly some changes.

I think he's fine.

Like when he came back as a starter and made the changes, he had a 21% strikeout minus walk with like 3.92 X fit.

Like that's kind of the talent that's going around here.

You have to just ignore the ERA and 85% left on base rate just isn't going to go.

And I think everyone's smart enough to know that that you shouldn't be doing that.

But if you want to dream, just look what he did as a starter last year and write that down as some projections and give him 140 innings so you can kind of see the upside.

It might not happen, but that's what I think a lot of people might be doing.

Don't forget about the 85th percentile extension.

Jeff, I know you love that.

Oh my God.

I think my one thing about Francis, he does a really good job of elevating that 4 seamer, but he like lives in the zone with it.

He's owned at 62% of the time.

League average is 55.

He doesn't get like absorbently amount of swinger strikes, but he does a good job of getting bats like, you know, right under it.

But it also gives up a lot of homers.

I'm just like afraid if that for seeming like regresses a little bit and he throws it half the time that that just gives them less of an ability to be truly effective because I don't see like the other offerings aren't really like, wow, these are great pitches.

And like you said, Rob, like give me like 100 picks later.

Pick a similar picture like Tobias Myers looking like a similar profile like not heavily strikeout just got a bunch of good pitches and could probably effectively make his way through 140 innings.

So I I haven't gotten any Francis this year had nothing to do with him being a blue Jay either.

Rob, just want to make sure you know that you.

Hate us Canadians so much.

I got no bow and no.

Francis, The other thing with Francis, if you look at his velocity graphs over the season, he he was like just heading straight downward.

So right, like we don't know where the bottom is yet because the season ended.

He might not be able to as a starter keep up even a 92 mile an hour fastball.

That's where he wanted the season at.

If you want a pro Boden Francis narrative, and I know we all love latching on to random narratives, he's apparently been following Max Scherzer around camp like a little puppy dog and wants to be like his his bullpen bitch, so that can only be a good thing.

Oh is he going to go get like an eye surgery so you can get different colored eyes or not?

If, if, if it helps, if it helps him stay in the majors, I think he'd do pretty much anything.

So if, if, if, if we're going to give any credence to knuckleheads, I think we have to give some credence to guys who clearly like want to follow Hall of Famers around and learn anything they possibly can.

Do I change anybody's projections because of that?

Of course I don't.

But if you're looking for a narrative because you want to draft.

The guy, there's a narrative you can you can break a tie with if you want.

Well, do I believe it?

No, I don't think that it that mean it's what it is.

Max will always also give them a nice good ratio for make those hands sticky.

A AO.

AO we got time for one more or do you guys want to get out of here?

One.

Let's do one last one.

We'll go back.

You skipped one there with Aaron.

Do we do not know last week?

But we did we.

We could go back and talk to her.

No, we did.

We definitely talked about her and Otto on the on the Patreon.

Patreon 1.

We did.

We'll go with the one of the meatball Mafia mascots, Mr.

Willie Castro.

Four position Swiss Army knife.

Jeff, what do you got for Willie Castro this year?

Well, we'll have to say with Kerala leaving the team, it was like 1 fewer guy to get hurt on the Twins because Casper really doesn't have a job.

But it's every year it's like where's he going to play?

It's like, no, he's on the Twins.

Just look at the roster.

There's no chance.

All these guys going to stay healthy even on opening day.

So he's going to have a job somewhere.

We don't know where, what position he's going to play and it might move around as everyone else gets hurt and so forth.

But he's, again, he's like Donovan.

I'd love to have him on my bench.

I don't want to count on him because he really isn't a difference maker in any category.

He's a great skill in where he comes in and provides some power, some speed, not a bad batting average.

He might drop some.

It's just as people kind of dig in the numbers.

I think he's more where your rankings based off DC's.

Rob ADP here.

Yes, yes.

Yeah, I can see him drop in like an OC where it's like, yeah, you know, I don't need this versatility.

What I need is production here so I can see him drop as the draft season goes on.

But yeah, he's always going to play like, yeah, just kind of try to get him and then use him as your bench option.

You could probably use him as like your one if you do like an early OC, it's just grab him and then like 6 pitchers and just kind of see how things work out because you have like almost every position covered if you kind of pull things right with your util spot.

So I think he's fine.

He's just not really a difference maker production wise.

But I think he lets you what's everyone, all the rest of your players on the team maximize their values on like the bi weekly player moves.

Yeah, and that's what makes him a difference maker because too often I think in DC some people with the multi position guys, especially towards the bottom end of multi position guys realize, wow, he can play like 4 positions, but he kills me at all four positions.

So I have a guy and that's better than not having a guy.

He has nothing for me.

Whereas Castro like is like not a, I think if you get we're, we're not, I know some people add an SGP for multi position eligibility.

We're not great at capturing the value of that roster flexibility, especially in the DC Quantitatively we can look back at the end of the year at it, but we all know experientially that there's huge value to it.

So I think that Castro is a difference maker in DC's in that way and to especially for those of us who advocate for Maine's, like I want lots of starting pitchers on my bench, especially to start the year.

Like having a Castro gives you so much more Peace of Mind.

And ultimately it's more than just pieces.

It's not just sleeping well, but like if you're only going to have one, maybe two bats on your bench going into every single week, then having Willie Castro effectively gives you extra bats on your bench.

Because if you have one outfielder and one other guy, then will it between them and Willie Castro, you have every player who's not a catcher covered for potential injury going into a Friday.

So I think that like I hear what you're saying in 1212's are different beast.

That's reflected on what the replacement value is.

But even in 50, like in Fab 15 team leagues, I think he just lets you load up on bench pitchers.

I can't quantify what's that, what is that worth?

But it's not worth nothing.

And I agree.

I agree with, I agree with, I assume all of you.

I don't know where he's going to play.

But if you told me, will Willie Cat, like if you put gave me odds, will Willie Castro lead once again the twins in plate appearances in 2025?

I'd be like, who's taking the other side of this bet?

Of course, Willie Castro's once again and going to lead the twins in plate appearances.

Duh.

I just don't know where or how it's all going to come together.

Yeah, I, I, I absolutely agree with you with the team building thing.

I mean, I I am a big six SPS on the bench for my even my twelfths and I find him extremely valuable there because also to one of my one of my bench hitters, I like to make it someone who I think might pop, especially since I've done so many OCS at this early part of the year earlier in February.

So allows me to start off the season maybe taking a shot with Kobe Mayo or taking a shot with the top prospect.

And I have Willie capture the cover the first two weeks right out of the gate.

I don't have to stream and and lose a possible pitcher that I'm really high on.

So and also yeah, again.

I was going to say a sneaky way and it's just a mental thing.

It's stupid thing to do is let's assume you're at your main event draft and you draft Willie Castro, but you still have, let's say your corner infield, 1 outfield and a util to fill.

I don't think it's A and your plan is to leave the draft after 30 rounds with six pitchers on your bench and one hitter.

I actually think it's a pretty good idea to write Willie Castro on your bench, even though you still have holes in your lineup, so that you're drafting the rest of your draft on the assumption that for Week 1, I want to fill my lineup and have Willie Castro as my backup.

I may end up using Willie Castro, but I want to position wise, make sure I don't need to use Willie Castro.

He's my one bench bat and then I'll flow cuts from there.

That sounds like cheesy and like it's a it is just a mental crush crutch.

You obviously need to just have a legal roster.

Like it doesn't matter where you fucking write your guys down on your paper or on your roto lab or on your your spreadsheet or however you do it.

But I think there's something to be said about like, he is my bench back and I will fill everybody else out.

Yeah, you just have to get that second first baseman.

Then you have all your backups.

There's a util or corner infield.

Just get that first baseman because he's got the other four positions covered.

And I also think like as a 27 year old that he may not be just done tapping into some even more power, you know, like he's he's always carried really strong Mac CVS, the barrel and the 90 percentile hasn't really spilled over to that.

But I don't think like maybe there's there's a world where Willie Castro, you know, starts hitting 15 homers per season as well.

So and I just love them.

I I love the versatility.

So a lot of my builds and fab leagues will revolve around him, without a doubt.

All right.

Fantastic men.

Awesome.

RIP through ADP.

Oh, right.

Shoulder injury from Matt Villing.

Oh, boy, here we go.

Harvey Baez is going to play third, folks, Watch out.

No.

Should have got Bregman.

Yeah, big injury for the Tigers, but awesome.

Their line, their line up is not deep to begin with.

I know a lot of lot of Zach Mckinstry, baby.

Man, I.

Just threw up.

I just threw.

Up in my mouth here in that.

That's not that's not something you want to do at 11:45 on a on a beautiful, beautiful day.

All right, everyone, thanks for tuning in to Launch angle.

Remember, come over and check out on the Patreon.

We get the additional launch angle episodes as well as anything I'm doing content wise and access to the Discord where you could talk fantasy baseball in life with the rest of us.

So thanks for tuning in and we'll catch you next week on launch Angle Pod Peace.

Music.