Hey everyone, welcome back to another edition of the Cubs on Tuesday podcast.

The Cubs finally clinch their playoff spot.

They'll be facing the San Diego Padres.

The question is do they face them at home or do they go on the road to San Diego.

Entering Tuesday, there are three games up on the Padres.

There's six games left.

The Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs, so if they do finish with the same regular season record, the Cubs will be going to San Diego.

After hate washing Milwaukee all season long, We're hoping they do well against the Padres in their three game series here after the Brewers series of Patres play the Diamondbacks the finish off the season, whereas the Cubs they will be playing the Mats and then they'll finish up their season playing the Cardinals.

This episode is dedicated to laying out the primer for the Padre series.

We're talking pitching matchups, we're talking lineups for the Padres, talking about recent trends for both teams.

That way, when we enter next week, you have some idea of what you expect before we get into those trends.

A few housekeeping notes injury updates, so entering Tuesday, Kyle Tucker will be returning back to Wrigley.

He's not going to play in Tuesday's contest.

Quite frankly, folks, it doesn't sound good.

So apparently, according to correct Council on Sunday, even though he was in Tampa Bay rehabbing with his personal physical therapist, he still was not running.

So he's coming back to Chicago without having run, apparently, or so we're sad he's not going to play Tuesday.

That will leaves five games remaining, and to expect that he will be one hundred percent ready by the playoffs next week is a little optimistic.

I think at this point, the hope is he can come back and he could run and maybe get a few games in.

That's like my best case scenario.

The worst case is you can't run and you may miss that three game set.

What's been a weird second half for Talker has gone even weirder.

I mean we're talking breaking his finger, to not knowing he broke his finger, to playing through the injury that caused some mechanical problems, to taking the three game spell, coming back looking good, and then you know injures his CAF which goes from hey, he's feeling tights, but I'm gonna work through it, to hey, the tightness is turning into pain, but let's just see how it goes over the next few days before we put you on the injured list, and then three weeks later, can't run, still can't run.

It's a weird second half for Tucker.

Life goes on.

Let's hope we can get him back from playoff series.

If not, we'll talk about what that means for the rest of the club's lineup.

Additional injury news, Daniel Palencia apparently had a pretty good outing in Iowa, throwing one hundred one hundred one of miles per hour.

Gave up a run, but from what we're told, he felt great.

He's coming back to Chicago.

He'll be activated this week.

I'm sure he'll go through his normal care on Tuesday.

We'll see which day he gets activated.

But after what appeared to be a pretty significant scare when he went down a couple weeks ago with that shoulder injury, turned out to be basically best case scenario.

So hopefully Tucker can follow that best case scenario that we just saw with Daniel Plancia.

Okay, you guys are ready.

You're ready for the playoffs.

This is the first playoff series I've broken down.

Let's see in Wow, it's been eight years, eight years since I broke down a playoff series.

Back in those days, it was Corey and I on the Cubs Wait the podcast and we were with Evan Altman at cub Senness Center.

Are very good friend, Evan Altman.

Time goes by, and you really can't take these playoff series for granted it.

Let's get into it.

So what do you expect from the padres.

The first name that comes up to me, as I'm sure everyone else, is Fernando Tatis.

Second that comes up is Manny Machado, and maybe third most recently is Jackson Merril.

Those are your three guys.

Now, let's go through the entire lineup and paint a picture of what goes on beyond those three trademark names.

In some former fashion, we're gonna see Tatis, Machado, and Meryl, but we're also going to see newly acquired Ramon Loreano.

On the year, Fernando Tatis is betting two sixty seven with a three point fifty weighted on bass average in twenty three home runs, in six hundred and eighty one plate appearances.

You would expect greater numbers from someone who has that superstardom.

Likewise, Manny Machado betting two seventy five twenty six home runs also is some what underwhelming weighted on base average of three forty one.

Now, the two similarities beyond just our surface numbers is reminiscent of what we've been talking about with the Cups.

If you like batted ball, exivelocity, launch, agle distance, all of that accumulating what's called expected weighted on base average.

Well, Tatis and Machado both are significantly underperforming their expected rates.

For instance, Tatisa's expected WOLBA is three seventy eight, and then similarly many Machados is three sixty seven.

So you have two guys, like what we talked about with the Cups who are just should be getting better results, but there are some variance, there's some air in some of these expected stats.

The boost they've received in the second half has been in the form of Ramon and Loreano.

So since being acquired by the Padres, he's a bet in two seventy one.

He has nine home runs, also has a three fifty weight on base average on the year.

His numbers are a little bit better with a three sixty six win it on base average.

But those top three guys, talking about Tatis, Loreano and then Machado, they don't strike out much.

They're gonna show you mild to moderate pop and they can easily run into one as we've seen in some ways, it's almost like how the Cub's top lineup is built.

And then what about Jackson Merrill.

So I talked about Jackson Merrill.

He started the year off pretty slow.

So his overall numbers on the year in four hundred and sixty played appearances, he's betting just two sixty three, only has fifteen home runs in four hundred and sixty plate appearances, not walking much, league average strike out, but not showing that type of offensive boom that you may have thought he was capable of.

But he still is capable of that.

If we just look at the month of September, Jackson Merrill in seventy four plate appearances is batting two he was seventy one and he's hit six home runs, so a third of his home runs have come in the past three weeks.

Tatis is also performing well, has five home runs this month, like Merril, So those two guys are starting to show some pop.

And then guess what, Manny Machado, he also has five home runs in the month of September.

In addition to those power guys, you know, we have Luisa Riaz batting leadoff.

This is someone who has the shortest swing, the best contact rate, elite contact.

He's their leadoff hitter most games on the year, though he's just batting two eighty seven.

But if you look at the month of September, like a lot of the other Padras, hitters will always performing better.

So he's betting three twenty five this month.

How will this all shape out?

Okay, so we have Luisa Riaz, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, we have Fernando Tatis.

They're complimented by guys who were having better years than last.

Jake Croninworth is an example, but a league average hitter.

He can bat from the left side.

You also have Gavin Cheese who started the year off well but has been fading recently.

And then Xander Bogarts, who recently was on the injured list due to a fracture.

He may come back before the end of the season.

If he doesn't, then Jose Glacis will be the shortstop against the Brewers on Monday, the lineup they fielded was Luis a Riaz batting leadoff, Manny Machado batting second, Jackson Merrill batting third.

Fernando Tatis was ill, but I imagine he would have batt in the top four in some fashion.

After those guys, then you have Gavin Sheets, Jake Croninworth, Loreano spot, Jose Glacias, and then the catcher.

So that's gonna be what they throw at you.

So here's the question everyone's asking it.

Do you throw Kate Horn in the top two spots?

Do you risk even getting into Game three?

If you go down the first two games and just get swept out of the series.

The answer to that, of course, is going to be multifaceted.

But I start thinking about this in terms of pitch types.

So if we look at Manny Machado, we look at Fernando Datis, we look at Jackson Merrill, the question is, well, what do they hit well and what don't they hit well?

In which coups pitchers match up to those weaknesses.

Machado and Tatise are both really good breaking ball pitchers.

Okay, so you can think about a right handed pitcher on the mound and they're throwing in sliders, curveballs, whatever horizontal pitch to the left.

They hit those well.

What they have not hit well this year?

And again this fluctuates on a year to year basis, but let's just go on the most recent sample.

What both those guys have not done well this year in terms of just bulk run value is hitting change ups.

And the majority of changeups they phase come from you guessed it, left handed pitchers.

So here's one way of making the Matthew Boyd argument.

Well, Matthew Boy's best pitch is the change up.

I just talked about Jackson Merrill coming out of his early season funk looking healthy Hinney for pop, is Jackson Merrill a rity or a lefty?

Jackson Merrill is a lefty.

So you throw Matthew Boyd, you have a pitch type that is his best pitch, that is the worst weakness of Machado and tatis to change up.

And you have that handedness advantage with Jackson Merrill.

And if you want to throw it in there, Luis Ariaz and even Jay Croninworth so all of a sudden, by having a lefty, you may get a slight advantage, a slight advantage to Ariahs and cronin Worth and Merrill.

And at least you know that the change of boy throws is not as likely.

Again, I even caution seeing the word likely.

It's just as it resulted in the boom power we've seen from Tatisse and Machado this season.

Now, the argument against boy pitching is, well, Michhado hasn't hit fastballs this year, number one, And Kate Horn's fastball is really not a fastball, it's really a cutter throw ninety five, ninety six, ninety seven.

How can you actually project anything based on these guys's numbers facing pitchers who are not like Kate Horton.

So that's totally fair as well.

And then you talk about Jackson Merrill, luis a riaz.

We're you know, we're talking with Kate Horn, a guy who has that fastball.

Those lefties are going to be negated a little bit because of that cut right forcing fastball.

And Kat has had success with his change up, which should bode well against those lefties.

And then you layer on their recency.

So Kate Horn has all the flashy numbers in the second half, he has the attitude to go with him.

Matthew Boyd does not pitch particularly well in the last six stars, giving up four runs multiple times.

Where do we go?

Do we go Kate or do we go Matthew Boyd?

Do we go change up lefty advantage with Boyd?

Or do we go recency uniqueness, cut ride fastball to Kate Horn.

This isn't a cop out, you know, I'm not gonna just offer a hot take for a hot take, But like, I honestly don't know who should get the ball in the first two games.

Like, I can really see the argument for Kate Horn, and there's part of me that wants it, that prefers Kate Horn over Boyd.

I love Kate Horn.

I mean he's turning into one of those guys where I'm watching him and I get the same feeling as I once did with Jake Arieta.

Just that confidence, that that swagger, if you will, that nobs mindset.

I love watching guys like that.

There's also a little bit of a voice in the back of my head that says, you know what, look out for Tatis, look out for Machhado.

They feast on those horizontal uh pitches.

And at the same time, well, Matthew Boyd's that that veteran.

He just has success in the playoffs last year.

And by the way, his best pitch type, which he's made his career on, well he's had success against throwing that very pitch.

Two sluggers, right handed sluggers, and those right handed sluggers on the patras, well, they don't hit that pitch that Well, that's why I'm going to default to whatever the coaches decide his best I will buy either one.

If it ends up being Boyed one hundred percent, I'm on board with it.

If it ends up being Kate Horn one, I'm on board with it.

Again, I don't want to cop out here, but there's a degree of uncertainty with both those profiles that we have to be honest and talk about.

Like, plus, we're talking about profiles with whether it be Tatis or Machado or really any on this line up from San Diego.

They don't walk much.

They're really an aggressive crew.

So part of me is like, well, you got Kate Horn who's attacking the hell out of the zone, and you got a super aggressive elite contact team in San Diego, and they have a couple guys who had that unique power contact profile.

You see where I'm going with this.

How you can go back and forth and either way I can argue against Boyd as well as Kate Horn.

Do you see how that's a thing.

Now again, I will give you my preference.

I alluded to it earlier.

I'm fascinated by Kate Horn.

So if you want to make me picture, I'll pick Kate Horn.

As far as showed at U Minaga goes, I don't want to cop out and show to you know, four seem change up guy.

If he's locating, well, if he's hitting his pitches atop his zone, he has that split working, he has a sweeper work in the lefties, you know, he should be fine.

This should be a good matchup for showed up.

If he's just locating, well, oh boy, what time is it?

Yere fifteen minutes in?

Yeah, we're going over, so that whole you know, twenty minutes, sixteen seconds, we're not doing it to that.

We're going over.

So let's talk about the padre starting pitching staff and how the Cubs lineup matches up to that.

So here's the name of the game.

Get to the weak part of the Padres bullpen as fast as possible, as fast as possible.

So the starting pitching staff for San Diego this year has more or less struggled.

The one pitcher who's been re remaining constant for the team is Nick Pivetta.

Nick Pavetta is a two point eight one ear array, a nine point five K per nine, and he's not walking many guys with a two point three walk per nine.

Dylan sees who was connected to the Cubs, which seems like every offseason.

He has a four point six earray, a lot of that is driven by walks.

He has a walk per nine of nearly four batters per game in home runs.

Randy Vasquez.

You may have heard the name Brandy Vasquez, a unique pitcher, throws a lot of wonky stuff.

Has one of the worst strikeout rates in Major League Baseball, a five point three K per nine.

Think about Ryan Presley, that's the same type of strike out rate that Randy Vasquez has, but he relies on his defense making plays.

He induces a lot of weak contact in the process.

He is a three point nine ERA.

Then you have you Darvish and you have Michael Kane.

Darbish has been injured this year, so as Michael King.

But in the month of September and four Stars, Darvish has struggled.

He has a five ERA if you want to look at this through the lens of peripherals.

Well, despite the five E ray, it's only walking one batter per game in those last twenty innings and his strike ut rate is still in double dishites Michael King just seventy innings pitched this year, he's getting lit up in September, has an ERA of six point nine to two, not getting his strikeouts, same strike ut rate as Randy Vasquez in the month of September.

So how do they work this way out?

How do they match up their rotation in the playoffs?

Well, Nick Paveda and Dylan Seas are for sure going to start two games.

In fact, that would probably be the order, probably be Nick Pivetta and Dylan Ceas one and two.

Then the question is, well, what happens if they get to Game three?

Are they going to throw a Darvish?

Are they going to throw rand New Vasquez, who's had more Indians of those two?

Are they going to risk it and go high ceiling with Michael King.

That's up for debate.

That's not even a problem even worth considering.

What I'm focusing on is Nick Povetta and Dylan Ceas.

What are the strengths, what are the weaknesses of the Cubs line up against those two guys.

So both those pitchers have a commonality.

The commonality is they have a forcing fastball with a lot of carry on it, or as Jim Dechay's said on the broadcast, as the kids say vert They both have fastballs that are in the mid nineties that can induce a lot of vertical break.

Whereas the average vertical break if you care about this stuff varieties, is around fifteen to sixteen inches, while both those guys hanging out around eighteen inches and even more some.

Over the past couple of years, Nick Pavetta has been was called the stat cast Darling because of his unique stuff, including that rising fastball, but also because he has a sweeper that sweeps a lot with it, as well as a curve ball to go off that.

So the signature for Pavetta is forcing fastball and then kill you with the sweeper, kill you with the curve ball.

The curve ball is going to be thrown to lefties, and then the sweeper will be thrown to varieties.

That forcing fastball will be thrown to both handedness.

No problems.

So the name of the game against Pavetta is how can you hit his mistakes?

Who is most likely to hit those mistakes?

I think the most likely mistake hitter on this team against Pavetta is pe Crow Armstrong.

Hear me out.

I know Heat's not performing well recently.

The power is off, the timing's off.

It's a discussion we're gonna have her in the offseason on what that means.

Nick Pivetta does not throw a pitch that goes the other way to left handed batters.

No change up, no splitter, and nothing that goes the other way with frequency.

P Crow Armstrong has shown many times this year to number one hit fast balls the top of his own with power, and number two golf balls from the dirt out you know, four hundred feet.

What does that sound like?

Sounds like Nick Paveta.

So if Nick Pivetta even locates that curve ball well and he spikes it, there is a real scenario where Pea Crew Armstrong digs that out the adrenalines kicking the chewing tobacco.

He's buzzing like a bee up there, and he just barrels up.

You can easily see that happening.

Or if he makes a mistake, well, you know, he has made a lot of pitchers pay for making those mistakes.

And then you look at okay, well, what if Kyle Tucker's not batting?

What does that mean for a replacement?

I think we're gonna see a little bit more of Moyses bias sterios.

He's batting clean up in this lineup.

So what does that tell you?

It tells you that correct Housil likes his ceiling.

So with Moys's bia steros, he has a hitterish feel to him, where in some at bats he may be a little aggressive and may extend to his own but he also he takes pitches pretty well.

You can see him working a deep at bat.

Maybe you fatigue Pivetta a little bit because he does not have that change up the other way, and with Moys's bia steros, he may be able to lay off that.

And then you start thinking about, okay, well, here's the advantage for this Cubs lineup.

They're veterans.

Here's a disadvantage for Nick Pivetta.

He's a recent successful starting pitcher, and by all intents and purposes, he is one of the better pitchers in the league this year.

Make no doubt about that.

I'm gonna wake up on that morning no one we're facing Nick Povetta.

I'm not gonna be happy about it.

I'm gonna be a little anxious about it.

But I'm gonna hold on to the fact that everything he throws is just horizontal, one direction.

I think that's gonna bode well for someone like Ian Happ.

I think that bodes well for someone like Dansby Swanson.

I think it bodes well for Nico Horner.

I think it was well for the veteran esque guys on this team because Siri and Michael Bush too, who could be batting lineup well.

The two pitches Bush has had the most success against this year Number one forcing fastball, Number two slidder and sweeper.

That's Nick Pavetta's profile.

So this is the optimistic views.

Will Peak Crow Armstrong can do damage against his mistake pitches?

And again, by the way, Peak kro Armstrong's number one pitch of value against the curveball.

What will Nick Pivetta be throwing peak chrome strong curveballs.

Maybe he'll throw a cutter, but he only does so once every ten pitches.

All in all, the message of Nick Pivetta is foresting fastball, curveball, slider, hoping you do damage against the mistake pitches and leveraging that you have a very smart veteran team who will undoubtedly do their diligent game planning against a guy who has really one way of attacking you.

And then there's Dylan Sees.

Dylan Sees shares that foresting fastball with Carrie Vert whatever you want to call it, right, Dylan Seas then has that wipe out curveball with the pair like Paveta with the foresting and fastball.

Now here's the difference between the two.

Dylan Sees has a slider that is not a sweeper if that it's more like a gybro looking pitch.

What does that mean?

It means it kind of spins like a bullet.

It has minimal horizontal and minimal drop.

That is going to be a pitch against lefties.

So p Crow Armstrong could be one of those guys susceptible to Dylan Sees.

Where you can see dyl s he's trying to jam him in with those sliders either at the kneecap or at the hip.

And then you can go in the same window at the festing fastball.

You can see Peek Armstrong striking out like three pitches are popping out easily right.

And then you look at someone like Ian Happ, who struggled against fastballs, the steer and sliders, especially tight sliders.

Those two pitch shipes are Ian Happ's least productive pitches against this year, whereas the curve ball change up more slower off speed has been his success pitches.

The stay can really be said about a lot of hitters on this team.

They perform well against guys with a little bit more funky looking breaking pitches.

But the disadvantage for Dylan Sees is that the command is not consistent.

That's represented by a walk per nine of nearly four batters per game.

So there, if the Cubs get on base, let's say Nico Horner, Peek Crow Armstrong, you get the guys moving, stealing bases, getting action going.

You can see them forcing the picture that way, and the goal there is really just to drive up pitch counts and not risk getting to the back part of that Padres bullpen.

That bullpen guys is a nightmare.

I do not want to be looking at a deficit in the fifth inning, in the sixth inning, I'm not gonna feel good about that.

I need the Cups to come out aggressive when there's mistake pitches by Paveta or Seas capitalizing on them.

Not being too aggressive where you're just swinging at every pitch, but have a little bit of an urgency that, hey, the best chance to do damage might be in the first four to five innings of the game.

Okay, so what about that bullpen.

I could read off the entire year stats, but just now they had the best bullpen in the league just from run prevention.

I think it's more informative to talk about what they've done recently in their last twenty innings.

You know how fickle bullpens are, right, The Padres bullpen's not fickle, Unfortunately so Mason Miller.

In his last twenty one innings, his ear ray point eighty six.

His trikeout per nine guys is seventeen batters per game.

Former Cub Jason Adam his year ray in the last thirteen innings is two point one Adrian Morhan his last twenty one inniingans ear raise three.

Robert Swarez the closer, even with Mason Miller being acquired.

His ear ray in the last twenty three Indians is two point three five.

I mean, I can keep going on this list.

I mean we have Yuki Matsui, he is the ear raised two point six, Wandy Peralta, he's the ear raised three point twenty six.

Do you see how intimidating this is?

You start facing Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Robert Suarez, You're in trouble, like you're in significant, significant in trouble, and that's damage starting in the middle innings.

We're talking like fifth sixth inning.

You can start rolling these guys out.

In some ways, it's almost reminiscent of what I felt like in that Cleveland series in twenty sixteen, where Andrew Miller you knew he was running around the corner in the fifth sixth inning if you didn't get to Trevor Bauer.

That's kind of how I feel about this Patres series.

It's also where the Cubs differ.

So where the Cubs do have a formidable bullpen, they also have a lot of pitchers who are able to go multiple innings and spell a struggling starter.

What do I mean by that.

Let's imagine that it is Game one and showed Emnaga's not looking his best.

He's in the second inning, he's got over forty pitches, may have given up a run or two.

I think you start significantly can considering do I throw jameson tyone?

Because Tyon's looks better, He's relying more in that change up.

I just talked about those hitters struggling more against austry pitches than sharp horizontal pitches, right, and it allows crucol So to go to a quicker bridge where you can get to let's say the third to fifth inning, and then you start defaulting to the Kittridge, theel bar Keller end of the game scenario.

So you're able to have a little bit more of a safety net with the padres.

You're hoping you can give five innings from Nick Pavetta and Dylan Ce's or let's say you darbish for Michael King, but after that you don't have that like middle pad so to speak.

You have high output guys in those three relievers I'm talking about, but you don't have the bridge should things go really bad in the first two three innings where you can spell your starter right away, which means Paveta may have to eat it.

In the third inning, he may not be looking good, but you know what, man, we gotta wait to get to Yuki in the sixth inning.

In the fifth inning, ultimately, I think that's where Tyone's going to land.

I think he's going to be used as the emergency, hey, get me out of trouble right away type situation.

I also think that's how he should be used.

I think that's smart.

I'm not saying that's the likely outcome, but I'm trying to think like Counsel he's looking at Shoda Boyd recently, thinking, you know what, stuff is just like not as sharp as it was earlier in the year from both those guys.

Tyone's pitching better, but like it showed it and Boid and they match a will against San Diego.

How do I use Tyone best?

Well, it's still using him perhaps in those situations.

And then you start looking at Kate Horton.

Well, we know Kate Horton's on a pitch limit, and you know, all those rules go out the window in the playoffs.

I understand that, but it doesn't mean that Kate's capable of going eighty plus pitches.

Let's say it's the third inning.

You know he's approaching sixty five seventy pitches.

Do you just say, you know what, I'm just gonna go to Tyona right now.

Just forget it.

Let's not even wake get into the fourth inning.

Let's just do it right now.

Or you go with Javey Asad for one to two innings.

You have a complete junk ball thrower Hovey Sad and those three four fifth innings, and then you offer that bridge again to the back end of your bullpen where you have your lights out guys and Keller and theobart.

If you consider a Kittridge, one of those high levers guys, well he's there available as well.

And I hate to say it, but you do have Colin Ray.

Again, this is for an emergency situation across all games.

Maybe after tyone in game one, well, you have Game two with either Kate Horton starting or Matthew Boys starting.

Well after using Tay in the first game, well you can maybe use Colin Ray.

Colin Ray also has a splitter that might bode well against certain guys in that lineup.

The Padres lineup looking at for instance, like Jackson Merrill getting through that part of the order.

This is the Cubs advantage.

The advantage is a pillow.

Pillow is the third to fifth Indians.

That's where the game I think needs to be one.

If you want to consolidate everything down into the best case scenario.

The best case scenario is this.

They get up top really fast on Paveta and Cees, they work their pitch counts, they score runs, they put up runs, and they get to the early part of the bullpen for San Diego.

Let's say that doesn't work.

Let's think worst case scenario.

Well, Shawana does not look good and neither does Matthew border Cahorn.

In the second game, Well, it's still a tie game.

It's a zero zero game.

Maybe they're down on a couple of runs.

Well, the fifth Innians, we're gonna use Tylan, We're gonna use this od, We're gonna use Ray, We're gonna win those Indians.

Hope that you can hit some damage pitches and then put your team in the position in the sixth, seventh, eighth innings to secure the win.

The Cubs have more reserve.

The Padres have more boom.

The Padres can very easily just go five innings, strike out all these Cubs batters have Paveta do his thing like he's done all year, and then once you get to that disgusting back end of the bullpen, you're in trouble.

That seems to be the more traditional flow of a game.

That's why I think you gotta win the game in the first few Indians.

You gotta win the game in the third to fifth inning.

I'll leave it there.

I'm not gonna lie reviewing the Padres talking about this team and doing this podcast a little bit more.

I wouldn't say earns, that's not the right word.

But the Padres they they have a formula guys, I mean that that boom or bust formula, and that lineup they share a lot of the same things the Cubs have.

They have a lot of potential, huge pop guys and frankly potential like at their best, like MVP caliber hitters.

And then the bullpen is one of the better bullpens we've seen in quite some time.

So it'd be foolish for me to say, hey, I feel great, it's gonna be awesome, and I feel even greater because you know, we have Biasterois performing well.

Like no, Like, I'm a little worried about Kyle Tucker and not being healthy, and I'm worried that if you get to the six inning, they're not gonna be able to compete against that bullpen.

I think those are fair concerns.

I also think at the same time, it's fair to question whether or not that the Padres can get beyond some potential mistake pitches.

I mean, the Cubs have several mistakes pitch hitters on this team and a veteran group who does well against Piveta and sees in being one dimensional guys and both horizontal guys.

So I can see the argument going for each team.

But I just don't like the highest ceiling output potential from San Diego and ultimately, like this breakdown.

I'm sure it's maybe fun to listen to, Sure that you know, it's fun to talk about with friends and whatnot.

Like I don't want to say it doesn't matter.

I know people like scoff and roll their eyes at that, but like we're talking about a couple of games here, folks, Like literally just a couple of games.

I mean, anything can happen in a couple of games.

Haave Bias took over the twenty sixteen playoffs in a couple games.

In Game one against the Dodgers, he's stealing home In the World Series, he's going off in Game seven hitting home runs.

You know, we have David Ross hitting home runs against Andrew Miller in Game seven of the World Series.

We have the Cubs nearly facing Johnny Quato in Game five of the NLDS.

I mean, I'm thinking dark, dark, dark thoughts in that World Series, going down one to three, where the offense just went away, got Hobby Bias strucking down on the ninth inning.

You got Wilsons tourist looking like you can't see anything in those first few games.

Baseball is so weird.

It's such a stupid sport.

And I always say that again, I know it can be kind of annoying, but this really is the dumbest sport.

And I know we just overanalyze the hell out of the series.

I totally acknowledge that my analysis doesn't matter.

This is all a bunch of bs.

What matters is you wake up, you have a good game plan, you embrace embrace that high emotional input.

You go out to the field, see the grass painted.

See some of those seats that are typically empty twenty thirty minutes before they're packed.

They're filled.

Music's a little bit lighter, few more cameramen, few more interviews, adrenaline, high emotional input, that's a huge factor.

How do you leverage that, not shy away from it, not go through the process.

How do you leverage that?

Players have leveraged it in years past.

Hobby Bys is a perfect example.

Even Wilson c Suria is also the perfect example.

How do you leverage that?

And I think you look at this team, the team was successful for the majority of the year when peak Crow Armstrong was performing at a ten war pace.

You're talking about the most volatile hitter in the league, batting cleanup in the highest of highs emotional series in the Wildcar Series.

I would not be surprised if pie Crow Armstrong has an enormous Wildcar Series.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles where some of the emotional input is too much and he's just falling into some of those recent bad habits.

But all this like looking at swing mechanics, all this stuff recently, A lot of those habits, a lot of those outputs are within like a stable environment, and a lot of that traits.

It just goes out the window once the playoffs start, and that's the optimistic take and what we all hope.

I'll leave it there.

I will say if you want to hear more about the playoffs, Corey and I will be on Thursday at the CGO Cubs related podcast.

Also, I haven't said this yet.

I hate doing it.

I really hate doing it.

But if you're still listening, first off, thank you very much.

Second, if you can just leave like a quick review, I think it's Apple and Spotify, I think you can do both, like a text review, and like just do the five star thing right.

It really helps me out.

I'm not going to be asking for reviews every single episode every fifteen minutes, I get it, guys.

That drives me nuts too, quite frankly.

But if we're able to do that right here, it helps the stupid algorithm.

And one of my goals is to use this to just talk about the game.

I get it, like sports Hot takes all of that stuff, like there's a place for it is entertaining I watch it too.

I like it gets you worked up, but at the same time, I like going with some balance as well, and I hope this offers a little bit of balance.

This is what we'll always do.

We'll talk about this, and we'll talk about how we're going to be wrong and what we're missing, Like isn't that interesting?

Like what are we missing?

What are they thinking about?

Why are we not thinking like that?

And trying to get into the weeds of how they're processing and going about their business.

I also, as as a fan, enjoy that.

I enjoy both sides.

I enjoy some of the uber emotional takes, like I'll raise my hand, I rip off some texts like crazy to Corey.

But twenty minutes go by, I'll be talking to Corey for a couple of hours trying to figure out, okay, like what actually happened here?

Like I just I ripped off those texts, what's going on?

I hope this offers a little bit of that.

I'll see you next week, next Tuesday.

I think next Tuesday we'll talk more about the playoffs in a specific way.

This is more of a primer.

We'll get the actual mashups next week and then we can talk about a lot of the nuance going into that three game set.

Thank you for listening.

I'll see you next week.

Go Cops.