Hey, everyone, Welcome back to another edition of the Cubs on Tuesday podcast.

What a difference a week can make this time last week, we're thinking dark thoughts.

We're thinking, oh my god, the Cubs are nine games back of the Milwaukee Brewers, and then all of a sudden, a week goes by.

They win the next three against the Brewers, they sweep the Angels.

We're five games back, just like that.

That's how stupid this sport can be.

Once you get in the range of five games back, territory randomness can happen.

Now they have a twenty percent chance at winning the division.

Improbable, not crazy.

Takes another week or two to really get serious about getting back in the division.

A lot happened over the last week.

We're gonna get into all of it.

We're gonna talk about the Cubs ceiling now that we have Tucker emerging from a slump, we have Matt Shaw continuing to exceed injections.

Kate Horton's looking like dare I say an ace?

We're going to talk about Kate Horton.

We're going to do a deep dive on Horton.

A lot of questions about what he's doing differently that's fueling his post second half Rookie of the Year candidacy.

We're also going to talk about Owen Casey, who did have a successful week, some inks that he did not play in that last game of the Milwaukee series when Kyle Tucker did come back.

We're also going to dive into Matt Shaw's defense in addition to just updating those offensive accumulative stats.

A lot of great questions.

I threw out a mailback.

A lot of the questions were centered on, Hey, what is the likelihood this Cubs team can make or run at the division?

What exactly is the reason for optimism with Kate Horton?

Can he be a third starter in the playoff series?

What about Owen Casey?

Is he even able to make a playoff roster?

And what's up with defense?

Why is his outs above average, which is sometimes used as the gold standard defensive metric?

Why is that so low?

Why is it rating poorly when it's not passing the eye test?

We have a lot to talk about.

Let's take a bird's eye of you before we get into some of these questions to some of these topics.

What I first want to do is update just to pitching success they've had an enormously successful August.

Here's the total number is.

Kate Horton has twenty five innings pitched a zero point seven to E Ray.

Phenomenal stuff from Kate Horn showed at Ebanaga looking like that number one starter twenty seven innings pitch a two point three EARRA.

Matthew Boyd has twenty four in a third innings pitch three point three ear ray under the radar, Colin Ray twenty one to one third inning pitch a two point five ERA.

And since we last talked, we have Jameson Tyona look a strong again.

Javasa in three starts, fourteen innings he's looking strong as well.

The rotation has been stable and I just read off one, two, three, four, five six names right there.

That is fueling a lot of the optimism around the roster at this point.

And that really is the best case scenario.

If you get Jamison tyone and Haavey Asad performing this well well, if Colin Ray takes a step back or Kate Horton's innings get dialed down just a little bit, having Javey Asad go out there pitch three, four or five innings is huge now, granted, Jamison Tyone did leave his last start before the sixth inning with a precautionary growing tightness injury.

No updates yet, but I do want to point to that if you're listening to this on Tuesday morning or maybe Tuesday afternoon, look for an update.

We have not heard one yet.

What we do know is precautionary, but sometimes precautionary turns into not precautionary and more serious injury.

So keep tabs on that.

Pavias Sad, in order to make room for more pitching depth, was optioned right after his recent start against the Angels, and Jordan Wicks was called up.

Now Tyon has to go on the il well Asad can come right back up, and that was why he was optioned anyway, to keep him stretched out in an instance where he's needed right away.

In addition to the starting pitching, the bullpen has been nails.

I mean Brad Keller eleven innings pitched in August, no runs, Drew Palmeranz, Borderline Dafade Drew Palmeranz eight innings pitched, no runs, Caleb thielbar seven and one third inning pitch a two point four to five ear Ray, Daniel Palencia had nine in his pitch, A lot of nail Bider saves a lot of high stress, a four ear array, but he's been getting those outs when he died.

The most newcomers Andrew Keacher's ten innings pitch.

He leads the team after Brad Keller and most used innings now five point four e ate, the majority of those runs coming to two Audiens, Taylor Rodgers, six Indians, one point four Era, and Ben Brown may be coming out of his fonk A thirteen and two third inning total A three point twenty nine.

You're in.

I'm not going to read off all the hitting numbers here.

The things you need to know A number one, Kyle Tucker's back.

He had three home runs against the Angels.

They were not cheap home runs either.

They're just mammoth shots barrels deep into the right field bleachers.

Other than Kyle Tucker, you have Matt Shot continuing to look good.

He's driving the ball with pull side power and outside.

Those guys in the month of August, most have been below league average in terms of total run but you're seeing some signs.

Pete Crow Armstrong did have a home run in the ninth inning of that first game against the Angels.

So hopefully those baby steps, those slight progressive that bats keep pushing forward in a positive direction.

Right now, the Cubs have a ninety nine point eight percent chance of making the playoffs a just under twenty percent chance at winning the division, making grind up there, we'll get into the mail back questions.

The first is related to those playoff odds.

I got a question from at ed Stripe.

What's your feeling on the ceiling for this team World Series NLCS.

Does the last month struggles change your view?

Or is the slump just baseball beam baseball and does not change how you view the team's chances?

The ceiling is World Series, absolutely World Series.

The reason is guys such as PCA, Bush and Shaw are playing above their preseason projections.

That's important because in the case for PCA, he's been producing well above offensive league average, producing eighty percent more runs than your average hitter even with this most recent slump.

This means this overall offensive production plus the PI has put them in ninety two to ninety three win probable territory probable territory I highlight probable because once you get to that area, you're within like a thirtieth percentile outcome of achieving a hundred win team achieving like one hundred win talent level production, and that absolutely would feel like a World Series contending team.

Baseball is one of chances.

We know this.

You mentioned it right there.

When you're performing in the low nineties, mid nineties, you're in kind of like a best case scenario.

Performing like the twenty sixteen Cups the last month doesn't really change my perceptions.

It's not like I'm saying, oh, this team is a bona fide world serious contender.

It's more like, Okay, I entered the year in my head with an upper eighties win projection, and I knew, okay, you needed PCA to perform.

You need an emerging perform ormanses from Shaw or Bush taking the next step, or say Suzuki taking the next step, and they're getting that.

So to me, I'm kind of getting like more of my upper expectations even with this most recent slump, which is built into their profiles.

That's why they're not projected to be one hundred win team, because those slumps that we've seen for the past five six weeks, like that is part of who they are at this current moment.

Now, I know for World Series contenders, we're seeing teams in the years past have these juggernaut rosters.

The way teams have won the World Series over the past decade, there's been a few patterns that stand out that are just not familiar.

Number one, we can date back twenty sixteen.

The Cubs starting pitching staff that playoffs stretch historically great.

John Lester Kyle Hendricks had fifty seven innings of like a two and a half year a that post season historically great, not even including Ariaa's positive performance in that playoffs.

The way I kind of see the Cubs entering their hopeful contenue to run the playoffs is more volume in their pitching staff.

So consider this.

You have Brad Keller, Caleb thielbar Daniel Plentier performing continuing to perform in the top ten percent of all relievers.

That's crazy what we've seen from them so far.

Then you have Kittridge and Rogers, which allows you to play a long bridge in Kittridge because he has a tight slider, can go lefty, righty, or you play a short bridge in Rogers, which is more selective matchups.

That's five guys right there and then you have Pomerans who may represent that fifth innies, sixth inning guy, maybe the bridge into the next bridge.

That's six guys.

And then in a playoffs you're not talking about having like a five man rotation, right.

So we've seen positive production recently from Javasade and jameson Tyone in addition to the three guys up top Shoda Boyd and Kate Horton well Asad and Tyone are valuable guys.

What happens if you mix and match those guys, right, so you have more flexibility.

I think the Cubs could leverage some of that and council if the matchups present themselves, I think could really find his group on best performing and like almost maneuvering those guys in the form of a chess game, which leads me to the next question from at Conrad K.

I believe I said that right.

I'm not sure the question was, quote, are we still concerned about who would be the Game three starting pitcher in a playoff series?

The pitching staff has outperformed projections post All Star Game?

Still, is what we're seeing from Hortant enough to pencil him in?

And how should we weigh his recent performance versus Tyone's experience.

For example, end quote, fantastic question, really, really thoughtful question.

I don't know how the Cubs are proceeding with Horton's in pitch limit.

I can see a scenario where, yeah, they would start in Game three, and even if there's a limit where you can piggyback someone after him, maybe you do piggyback Tyon or javasad or in a dream scenario, which is unlikely.

Ben Brown has a lockdown September.

I don't think you pencil them in right now.

And has nothing to do with production.

It's everything to do with time.

We still have about five weeks left in the season.

A lot can happen in five weeks.

And the reason I highlight that time is because that is exactly how we've seen correct council manage this team and this front office manage their roster.

They're very deliberate with expecting the un expected.

Ironically, for example, Reese maguire was not dfaed when Miguel al Maya came back.

Mcelmaya in his second game, of course, suffers at ankle injury.

Well, thank god you have that third cutcher.

So they're open and flexible.

To how the roster naturally ebbs and flows.

If Kate Horn continues to throw ninety five, ninety six, ninety seven and have this success and we're entering, you know, the final week of September, then yeah, absolutely you would pencil him in.

The biggest question is in the next five weeks can he achieve that?

And this is separate from the whole innings discussion we don't even know about.

Okay, more questions about the playoffs.

See look, look how happy you guys are?

You know, last week, not happy?

Nine games back, one a week later, you're happy.

You're talking about the playoffs.

Another question about the playoffs, this one from at one Skyline Drive quote assuming to make the playoff, is Owen Casey on the roster?

End quote?

I think Owen Casey has a really strong chance at being on the roster.

When I was posed this question, my intuition was probably not.

But then I'm trying to think, well, who else would take a spot?

And the immediate answer was, well, when Miguel Maya comes back, He'll just take a spot.

Right.

But the Cubs are carrying three catchers or have been because they can't dfa.

Reese Maguire They can, however, leave him off the playoff roster, and if that happens, well, there you go.

There's Owen Casey spot right there.

And if there's an injury, should Miguel might have come back perform well, and something happens to the catching core, well then you just call Reese McGuire up during the playoff series.

Which is crazy to think that Owen Casey, unless I'm missing something, is like, he almost feels destined for the playoff roster, but it depends on how he's used from here on out, which we'll get into in the next question.

This one from at Thunder Dan sixty three quote, do you think that the Chicago Cubs are limiting Owen Casey because they want to preserve his rookie status for twenty twenty six?

Now, Dan, I will say in your question, you actually said twenty sixteen.

You know, I understand it.

That's when the Cup's won World Series.

I get it.

I know what you meant.

So the answer to this is no, they're not trying to preserve a status for twenty twenty six or trying to win baseball games and maximize the revenue for twenty twenty five.

The reason that he may not be playing as much as you like, which I completely understand is simply a matter of expectations.

If your correct council, your margin for air right now is somewhat slim if you're chasing the division, and it's even slimmer if you're chasing the home field advantage in the wildcard spot.

The projections for Kyle Tucker three seventy went on based average hearing out I an app three point thirty wined on based average hearing out pee Crow Armstrong worse now than what he's currently producing.

At a three twenty five weight on based average, all those guys I listed would be in the top eighty percentile of offensive production you have, also, Sayszuki, at a three forty five weight on based average own casey, his projections under three to ten nothing to do with his talent level, but everything to do with time as well and having a track record.

So as you enter the next five weeks, what is the more likely outcome guys with seven years of history and one who was like on pace for a forty forty season before this recent slump, or is it the new guy who got called up who's striking out in a third of his plan to parents is IOWA.

Now that's being you know, a little hyperbolic with Owen Casey there, but that's the reality of what they're waying.

Who was more likely to produce and right now that would be not go on Casey.

But as I pointed to earlier, if you want to keep the best positional depth, there's an argument to be made that you have to play caseymore.

And if you don't, well maybe you do send him back down just to keep him fresh because you may need that depth bat ready to go seeing pitches towards it back into September if you even want him to make that playoff spot.

Okay, next question here about Kate horn Just fy, I'm going over twenty minutes to death.

There's a lot to talk about.

We've got a lot of questions.

We'll see how long this goes.

I typically keep this twenty minutes and sixteen seconds.

Today I'm breaking that rule.

Okay.

This question is from at Troxel Underscore forty eight.

What do you think has led to Kate Horton's run of success that we did not see or he didn't have when he first came up.

I saw your graphic that he's been attacking his own mare with the fastball.

But is that all of this success attributed to that end?

No, Yes, and no.

The underlying stuff with Kid Horton is unique, and when you have unique stuff like this, there's always a possibility that baseball naturally works its way out if you're consistent with that stuff.

We look at the fastball.

Really, the fastball has not changed at all before the All Star Break and now so he's locating it in the same zones.

The movement looks the same, the velocity looks the same.

You can maybe squint and think, okay, well, some of the shapes are more consistent in terms of that cut ride profile, but the fastballs and basically the same.

The graph I did tweet out was the sweeper location, which you alluded to, even though you said the fastball, the sweeper location is more in the zone.

Before the All Star Break, Kate Horton was throwing a lot of his sweepers, or those sharp sliders with a lot of horizontal down in a way to right handed batters.

If we look at his zone profile post break, those sweepers are no longer thrown as balls.

Those are thrown as strikes down in a way to right handed batters.

He's relentlessly attacking the zone.

It's those two pitch types to fastball and a sweeper that is having significant effects.

It's also the addition of a newfound changeup that he showed earlier on this season and a sinker that he throws at times.

This is so important to dial into.

Kate Horton's throwing four pitch types in his rookie year, hopefully en route your Rookie of the Year award.

That is absurd.

I so want to highlight that because look at the discussion about Ben Brown over the past two years.

The discussion is, well, he doesn't have a third pitch, Ben Brown.

Let's talk about the discussion with Justin Steele.

Justin Steele had an incredible run before the arm surgery, historical run because of his cut ride fastball.

That's the same pitch that Kate Horton throws, just from the right side.

But Justin Steele was not throwing a change up as often as Kate Horton's doing.

Justin Steele was not throwing a sinker as quickly into his career success as Kate Horn.

And that's not a ding on Justin Steele.

It's actually just hyping up how impressive Kate Horton has been.

He's developed two pitch types coming back from an injury last year in his oblique shoulder or whatever it was in Iowa, and he's using four pitch types with regularity.

So having the ability to number one attack, attack, attack, with the fastball and sweeper, then show a sinker every now and then around five percent of the time ten percent of the time, and then a change up at most in some stars twenty percent of the time is truly spectacular.

That's the word I have to describe it.

Now.

You may be listening to this and you're thinking, oh my god, Kate Horton's going to be an ace over here.

There's still a lot of growing room left and that needs to be clear as well.

You can be really optimistic with what we've seen while acknowledging that he's not that ace guy yet unless he shows this for multiple months.

That's the track record of someone like Justin Steele or the track record of Showa Emanograh for the past two years, right, that's what we need to see from Kate Horton go through September.

Can that fastball last in velocity in the fifth inning and the sixth inning in September.

But let's get crazy.

Let's say it does and we're seeing Kate Horn look like the same guy at the end of September.

Well, then yes, you can start thinking a little bit crazy and that Kate Horn might be that ace we've been asking for the standout feature for Kate Horton.

If anyone asks what makes him different?

Why, as a Cup fan should you be excited about Kate Horn?

The answer is this, when you look at every single starting pitcher in Major League Baseball that throws from the right hand side, no one has as much cut to his fastball and Carrie to his fastball.

If you just filter by guys that have over ten inches eleven inches of what's called induced vertical break, So that's a proxy for Carrie.

Like how much Carrie does the fastball have, Well, most guys have about five six inches of run to their fastball.

No one has slightly positive cut to their fastball, no one.

That's what makes Kate Horn so impressive.

And he's throwing those pitches at ninety five, ninety six, ninety seven miles per hour.

For me, going into the year, I did not expect the command to go with it, nor did I really expect the attitude to come out.

I'm watching Kate horn I'm thinking myself, jeez, he kind of looks like Jake Arietta on the mound attitude wise, Like I've seen him pick up a sleeve like that before.

Jake Arietta.

I've seen Arieta walk around the mound like that.

Kate Horton stands on the mound like he's five feet leaning forward, like he looks like he's about to like charge the batter's box.

This this guy has that attitude, dude that personally, when I watch pictures I enjoy the most.

He is convicted.

He is one hundred percent confident in his stuff, and he knows if he's going to get beat not because of walks, and he has the stuff to go with it.

That to me is my favorite style of pitcher.

And I've been so impressed seeing him grow for the past two months here.

And I hope, I hope, I hope that there's no strict innings limit and they find a way to get him into late September and hopefully into an October push.

Okay, we're at the twenty four minute marker again.

Going forward, these episodes will be twenty minutes in around sixteen seconds.

Not today though, So another question here from at bradq one quote, Matt Shaw has a plus nine defensive run safe score but a negative three outs above average score.

Why the discrepancy and can you explain it?

Is he actually a good third basement and end quote?

First off, one of the best questions.

And I say that because a lot of fans, including myself, will really want to discredit a metric, a stat if it does not agree with their fandom.

Again, hand up, I sometimes do the same thing.

I want to I want my team to win.

I'm a diehard Cups fan.

You know, sometimes these stupid numbers get in the way of it.

But I try to be as objective as possible.

But I really have to dial it back myself to consider every single perspective.

That's why this is a great question.

You have Matt Shaw's defensive run saved as one of the best in the league at third base, but one of the worst outs above average scores in the league.

I've been on podcasts for years.

I've tweeted about this, wrote blogs about this for the past, you know, five years, about outs above Average on Dance by Swanson and Nico Horner.

So if I come on here this new podcast and I say, well, you know outs above average is not the best, it's it's something's wrong with it, Well, then why were was that?

Why was I using it for Dance by Swanson and Nico Horner justifying their defensive value?

Why do I use that now?

Where Nico Horner has one of the best out's above average scores in the league.

So if I discredit outs above average now for Matt Shaw, then don't I do the same thing for Nico Horner and Dance by Swanson.

That's the delicate balance.

But these types of discussions for defensive metrics, they have to be in the context of a discussion, and there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of variability and quantifying defense.

I acknowledge that there's also a visual component to this as well.

When you're washing these defenders, you can kind of tell who's the good ones, At least I think I can.

Nick Magal is a great example.

So Nick Madgigal had one of the better outs above average scores at third base going into twenty twenty four.

In fact, he had a better outs above average score than Matt Chapman.

I get the thinking here, but just to preface, there was a lot of cub fans who saw Matt Chapman on free agency and they looked at Nick Magical's outs above average, which was better, and they justify that Nick Madrigal was just as good, if not maybe more valuable defender than Matt Chapman.

Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive third basemen in Major League history.

Nick Madrigal was sprinting thrown the first base, literally sprinting with a crow hop thrown to first base.

There is no argument in the world that Nick Maggal is equally valuable to Matt Chapman.

At the same time, it is not discredit what he was able to accomplish with his defensive value in twenty twenty three.

Think of that's above average as like a bell curve.

Okay, you have a distribution of defensive possibilities.

Put yourself a third base for example.

Okay, you're playing in you get a rocket hit to you at one hundred and five miles per hour to your left side.

There's a probability of a third basement making that play.

Let's say I don't know what it is.

Let's say the probability is twenty percent.

Okay, you make the play.

Well, you know you have more outs above the average guy at that point.

Now let's say you're playing twenty feet further back than your average defender.

And let's say now that rock is down the foul line.

Okay, well, you make the same play.

All of a sudden, you're ouse above average because you're making place other guys don't.

Is going up outs above average is a probability type based metric.

Defensive run saved is not Defensive run saved is exactly what the name implies, quantifying runs, not quantifying outs made.

From a probabilistic sense, Defensive run saved takes into account zones.

Put yourself back at third base.

Now, okay, that same one hundred and five mile per hour shot hits you to your left side.

You make the same play.

That may have a different run value than now it's above average.

Also, let's put yourself thirty feet back.

Let's have that one hundred and five mile per hour ball hit to your right side down the foul line.

That's gonna go for a double.

But you make the out that has more run value than the out assigned to it.

Do you see how the two numbers are not related.

They both quantify difficulty differently, and they assign different weights to it, one in the form of outs and the other in the form of runs.

Very different, both useful, both providing information, but very different.

Also both not really better than the other.

Remember there's no gold standard defensive metric, so to say, well, defensive run safe is worse than outs above average is.

There's no barometer.

You cannot say that they're both providing different information.

So then the question is, well, okay, that's great to know, but then why does Matt shall have a plus nine d rs And what's with the negative us above average that you got.

You still have to explain that.

So if you look get why his outs above average is in the negatives, you can see in a play by play basis what's hurting him and what's helping him in the form of the defensive run saved number.

Matt Shaw has been exceptional at balls hit in front of him where he has to charge the ball go laterally to his left or right.

On balls in he's above average and outs above average on those plays.

Those same plays are weighted differently in run value than they are and outs, so you prevent more runs that way.

There's also been several instances where Matshaw has made great defensive plays that are down the line that would go for extra base hits.

So he's made those plays as well.

That's going to give him a better run prevention score because preventing those extra base hits different than the out probability metric where mats Shaw has not been graded well this year, or balls within the general vicinity so slightly less, slightly right from a probabilistic standpoint, the outs above average standpoint, the bell curve situation.

So we're not talking about the extreme place that we've seen Matt Shaw make.

We're talking about some of the thirty percent chances, the forty percent chances.

He has not made some of those plays, and so as a result, the outs above average goes down, but they're not that many, and it does not for me.

Past the eye test.

I watch Matt Shaw.

He's making most of the place, but I can recall several plays that he probably should have made.

I'll give you one example in the Angel series.

He's playing down the thout line, okay, and there's a ball hit to him, and given the eggs of velocity in the distance it was hit from where he was standing, it should have been made.

But you know, double down the line, hard hit ball.

But because most guys do make that, he will get dinged on that.

There's no doubt about that.

So that's where Matt Shaw is not getting the proper score that makes you think, oh, well, he's a bona fide all star third baseman.

The question as well, is he good at third base?

Shouldn't he just be making those plays?

These defensive scores, I believe they normalize after like three seasons.

I think that's true unless I'm misremembering, which is possible.

I believe it's three seasons.

That means, in order to rule out some variability, some randomness, to be like, you know, sure that you're a good defender, you kind of need three seasons from like a statistics point of view.

But hell, no one has time for that, right, Like, I don't have time to wait three seasons to see if Matt Shaw's good or not.

That's where I kind of default to taking information from each bucket, so to speak.

I take information from the defensive unsafe bucket.

I'm like, okay, well, Matt Shaw's making these extreme plays that go for extra basets.

He's charging balls like a mad man.

He's getting those short hops, he's diving in front of Dansby.

He's making the plays that hell yeah, I want to see I take information from the bucket of the yachts of average.

Well, there's some place that he should be making that he's not straight up?

Can he make those plays going forward?

Well, yeah, I think he can.

He's making these spectacular plays, so why can he not make those plays, which leads me to the eye test.

I'm washing every single play he makes.

My confidence he ends up making most of these plays Right now, I would say he's pretty high unless he takes a step back somehow or gets c yips, which leads me to my ultimate conclusion.

Well, ou it's above.

Avere says he needs to clean up some of the borderline plays.

The visual test suggests he's made substantial improvements, both in the form of range played, difficulty, and most importantly for me, throwing.

He changed his throwing motion.

He has a quick release point now and that's important to me.

So therefore, over time, I expect the asthma of average to normalize where some of the variability gets ruled out naturally and he becomes statistically a good valuable third base defender.

And to be clear, Alzhama of averse is not take into account starting position either.

It's just a distance, you know, probability metric, given how hard ball it hits and how far you have to go to get it, those are the probabilities that So when I gave those you know, playing in playing back examples, it's kind of built into what I'm thinking about this and how far you have to travel.

Give us some of the exit.

Okay, I'm gonna leave it there.

I'm well well well above the time allotment.

I want to give myself here.

Hopefully you know you're still with me.

If not, listen, I get it, man.

I've went fifteen minutes overboard talking about Matt Shaw's defense and these dumb defensive metric numbers, so totally understand.

The next week, we have the Cubs playing the Giants in San Francisco starting late Tuesday.

Love these late night West Coast games.

Then they also play the Rockies to finish up this sets.

Hopefully this time next week we're talking about more possible momentum and gaining ground on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Thank you for listening in.

If you haven't submitted your questions next, I literally will answer or hope to answer, every single one of your questions again.

If I don't, just tweet at me.

I promise you I'll give you a reply.

If I missed it, I write them all down.

I think I got all of them, but sometimes I do miss them.

I'll talk to you next week on the Cubs on Tuesday podcast