Hey everyone to welcome back to another edition of the Cubs on Tuesday podcast.

Oh boy, Cubs are six and a half games back of the Milwaukee Brewers.

I cannot believe we're even talking about this.

This is coming off two months ago where the roles were reversed, the Cups were six and a half games up on Milwaukee.

Since then, they've gone on a heater.

They've won forty nine of sixty five games.

More recently, Milwaukee's won twenty five their last twenty nine games.

They won another game tonight, ten in a row, their second multi number win streak.

They just recently won eleven in a row like three weeks.

It's an historic stretch from a team who simply is finding ways to win every single fashion.

This begs the question, how concerned should we as fans be about the Cubs now six and a half games that now that question, I understand is going to be interpreted very differently.

Are you concerned about winning the division?

Well?

Yeah, I mean, now your six and a half game is back, and Milwaukee's performing at a pace that frankly we just don't see off then as another viewpoint where it's okay, well, how concerned are you about the Cubs performing well the rest of the year to secure a playoff spot and position themselves well for a playoff run.

And those are going to be the two questions fans have varying opinions on a various emphasis on.

What I want to do this episode is respond to a lot of the mail back questions that we're submitted.

But first, just highlight the recent trends that we've seen since the start of August, set the stage and at least acknowledge the unfortunate six and a half game back window they've created, while also trying to be at least a little bit realistic and look at their situation through the lens of a front office executive maybe stunner eyes right now, or through the lens of a player or a manager himself.

Let's start with the good news.

The good news is that despite some of the offensive struggles which we'll talk about, their pitching has been really good.

Looking at the rotation.

For instance, in the last four starts combined from Show to Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, they have total twenty five innings, zero walks, zero walks, and this is coming off a start in Chicago against the White Sox at their ballpark, where Schoto was throwing about three miles per hour slower.

Since then, the velocity's returned, the commands returned.

He's going deep into starts in whether that's humid, for instance, in Saint Louis.

Likewise, Matthew Boyd ever since that rough start in Milwaukee about three weeks ago, again no walks, two starts, twelve innings and only giving up a handful of runs.

Then you have Kate Horton, whose innings may be slightly limited, but nonetheless in his last two starts since the start of August, he has pitched eleven Indians zero Kate Horton.

So you have Showy Imanaga and Matthew Boyd both having pitched thirteen in twelve Indians respectively.

Kate's not too far behind despite being pulled out with eleven Indians.

Then you have Colin Ray.

Colin Ray has pitched two starts in the month of August, also eleven Indians, also just a handful of run.

As a whole unit, their starting pitching staff has looked good.

The fifth spot is being occupied by Ben Brown.

Right now, we'll see how correct council continues to utilize maybe some of those bullpen days going forward or holding out until Jamison Tyon comes back or Javi Asag comes back, which appears to be very close.

Stay tuned to that.

If you're listening to this on Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday, maybe there's even a move announce that addresses when they'll be back.

But then there's the offense.

So the offense has been a mixture of good bad.

The good is that Matt Shaw's emerging as a guy we thought could be a ceiling when the season started, ceiling in terms of power in the month of August three home runs, all of which to the poll side, and he's been the most significant offensive contributor even dating back to the post All Star break now which was a month ago.

So in the month of August, Shaw is batting two seven with three home runs, a WRC plus of two oh three with one hundred being league average, and a weighted on base average of four fifty nine.

Since the start of August and more recently within the last we're seeing signs at say Suzuki's snapping out of that funk.

So he's batting two to eighty in the month of August.

He has one home run, you'd like to see more power, the walks are high, maybe you would like to see more aggressiveness from Saya.

And then like see a recently Dansby Swanson starting to come out of that early post second half slump.

He's batting three ten, has two home runs in the month of August.

And then Carson Kelly, Ian Happ, and Nico Horner are performing around their career averages, well maybe Kelly but performing at around his season mark with the Cubs.

Not good on this list is the obvious guys, Kyle Tucker.

Despite the on base percentage being high in his slump through the second half of July, he's not walking as much so in his last thirty three plate appearances.

The strikeout race thirty percent.

That's weird from Kyle Tucker and the walk raised six percent.

That does not jibe with anything we've seen Kyle Tucker throughout his entire career, dating back to when he debuted.

Michael Bush also continues to struggle.

He's bet in one thirty three, he's not walking, he's strucking out in a third of his plate appearance.

And then newcomer Willie Castro has been quite frankly a disappointment.

In his first seven games with the Cubs, He's bet a one sixty only his one extra basic no walks.

You would like to see more offensive Mila Castro.

The least productive in the month of August is Peak Crow.

He's batting ninety one point zero nine one.

He has no walks in the month of August, and he's striking out in nearly forty percent of his plate appearances.

That total is a WRC plus of minus thirty eight, So the extreme on the negative end to start the month of August.

Pe Crow, Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Michael Bush.

Those guys simply have to contribute.

But in two week spans, We've seen this before.

Kyle Tucker.

There's talks about finger injury lingering.

We talked about this last week.

He showed a similar stretch of just weak or slower bat swings in the second week of April, as well as three other times throughout the months of June and July.

So is this rare from Kyle Tucker, at least from a Bannock point of view.

Not really.

What's rare is the frequency of the whiffs that's rare.

But in a thirty played appearance sample, it still is too small.

It takes is one, two, three games and those numbers that I'm talking about, that two oh seven batting average, that thirty percent DIRECTU rate, that changes.

And what's surprising about these numbers at least in the month of August, and it does point to small sample size, but also just slashin quite frankly, is Pikrew Armstrong I thought, has looked better at the plate.

His chase rate is trending down, which is what you want to see.

He's also at times continuing to hit the ball hard and continuing to hit the ball out to the post.

My thought has been, well, if he's chasing less and still showing signs at a hard hit rate and pulling the ball, it's kind of just like a matter of until those numbers start to look like what we saw earlier in the year, and perhaps even better.

If he's gonna chase at a thirty percent rate, which is what his previous stretch recent lee has been, then that's going to translate to more power, more selective swings, more walks, ultimately more offense.

Just a matter if he can actually normalize and get beyond this funk pretty fast right now, because the pitching has kept the Cubs afloat in the last two weeks.

They still have played five hundred baseball over the past forty games, so even though they're six and a half games back of the division, they still have a ninety seven percent chance at making the playoffs.

Right now, there are six and a half games up of the Cincinnati Reds, which I understand.

They're six and a half games back of Milwaukee and six and a half games up of Cincinnati.

That's just a weird spot to be in.

But ninety seven percent chance and make This stretch has prompted a lot.

There's a lot of inks for Cubs fans, and I get it.

Let me try to address all the questions that were submitted.

I did not write down the Twitter handles for some of you guys, so I apologize.

You know your question if you hear it.

First question is how would you grade the season if it ends how we all expect currently sees baseball is very dumb.

A five to six seed and a two or three game loss in San Diego or Philly.

You know, I understand the whole grading system.

Everyone has different interpretations of what these grades mean.

If I say a seed, then some people would think the same thing, but give them a bee because their expectations going in were lower.

My expectations going in was that they would be around mid eighties to low nineties win team, within that comfortable range of variability that you see with projections.

They're still hitting that range.

Fangraps currently gives them a ninety two win total tally by season's end.

That's actually what they were projected by Fangraps going into the year.

I would give them a B minus at this point, but I think it's better to highlight the stark improvements they've seen.

We've seen improvements from Pca which will boost his overall win project rejection and the Cubs flexibility going forward for the next five years because of this new baseline.

Now, if Matt Shaw follows suit in the next seven weeks of the season, well, he too has the opportunity to boost a baseline projection and allow the Cubs to spend money else similar to Bush as well, who's performing better than his project so far this season.

The reason that there is some pessimism beyond those hitters is number one, Kyle Tucker's a looming free agent.

But I think for me personally.

The biggest point of pessimism would just be how, would be just how the prospects systems, the middle level prospects have failed to really take in that next step.

We heard throughout the trade deadline that the Cubs intended to try to acquire pitching, but there's been some some buzz that they did not have prospects, the mid tier prospects that other teams wanted that they then went out to a different squad to make that trade.

We're seeing this highlighted by just the injuries currently, So Jameson Tyona is out, Javasad is out, Brandon Bursell, who was a Cub's minor league Pitcher of the Year last year, just had an elbow injury.

He's out.

After Bursall, there's not much depth.

You're looking at Jordan Wicks.

He's been injured on and off for the past two years, up and down success wise, mostly has been struggling at the big league level when he's given opportunities.

Ben Brown has been up and down from Iowa.

He's not inspiring confidence as a bulk this year.

There's not many pitching prospects after those guys, if you want to call them prospects whom the Cubs can rely, and to me, that's the biggest negative criticism of the front office and how the season's gone so far this year.

So as a bulk, yeah, I mean they're hitting there one projection, that's great.

They're on pace to make the playoffs, that's great.

They're getting elevated ceilings and boosted baselines from PCA, Bush in a whole, hopefully Shaw going forward.

All this is great, and then you layer on with Kate Horton.

So there's been a lot of successes, just some of the mid prospects stuff you wish listen.

I love Rizzo.

I know he's on Johnny Manziel's podcast.

I totally get how a move like Chapman back during twenty sixteen was like the cherry on top, the last big stepping stone to secure any weakness in that team.

But I'm not sure if this is the opposite.

I don't think there's this huge energy void that occurred at the trade deadline from the clubhouse perspective.

Remember, Dansby and Soroka are good friends.

They date back to their Atlanta days.

Kittridge is a welcome veteran.

He's been around for a long Castro has some spunk, He's got some of that flair, and yes, of course that big bat didn't come.

But ultimately, to me, the best spark is individual success that helps the team win, contributing to the team, and Matt Shaw's indivision dual success has been a huge spark.

So are they still searching for more energy?

I don't know.

I would six.

I mean, this is a veteran, savvy group who knows the ins and outs, and they did welcome for new teammates to their club.

Okay, another question here, quote how come the Brewers keep winning?

Will they ever lose again?

Quote?

Listen the great question.

I don't think their Brewers are ever going to lose again.

No, it is insane what they've been doing.

Why have they been winning?

First, they play lockdown defense.

They have the second best defensive value score in Major League Baseball.

Now, that's all great, but offensively they're matching that as well.

Not in the form that we've been grown to accustom to high powerful offensive teams with home runs and all that, but they're doing it in a way that limits nonsense.

For instance, their strikeout rate is sixth best in Major League Baseball.

They put the ball play, and when they're on base, they have by far the best base running value in the league by far.

Their overall base running value score is the thirteen runs above average.

The next team on that list has eight, the next team after that has seven, the next team after that has just over six.

So they're very far away from even the second tier.

So they get on base, they steal, they make every base running decision properly, and when they're on the field defensively, well, they're making every play.

And then I'm not even talking about their best league eer.

They're pitching staff as a whole, from the bullpen to the starting staff to the depth they prevent runs, they force the issue when they're on the bases, and they make the other team high rests.

Is a very tight form style on baseball and many respects what we had ha I hope the Cubs would emulate this year.

Another question here, how concerned are you about Carter hawkins comments about how you have to keep the twenty thirty two Cubs in mind when approaching trades.

I understand the question.

I'm not concerned, but I do think this type of question deserves a little bit more like nuance.

So front offices often show they aren't the best communicators with the media.

I've been surprised over the years by how Jed has talked to the media.

Now, generally I think he's been pretty good, But there's examples where I'm like, dude, what are you doing?

Like what do you say?

I'll give you a few examples.

During twenty twenty one, he was up on the podium postgame pressor YadA YadA.

He had a quote that he specifically said he's very confident in the Cubs extending Rizza, and then three months later he traded Riza.

So that type of wiggle room where fans can go back and show examples of mistrust is poor can communication?

Now?

Was he confident in extending Risil at the time was?

But you have to leave open the wiggle room.

Where's that type of quote?

Doesn't lead to long term mistrust because we're still talking about some of the long term trust we have with his front office.

I'll give you another example.

When they did ultimately trade Hovey kb Rizzil, he went on less than forty eight hours later on the radio implying they didn't want to be long term Cubs, criticizing that their agents would say the opposite of what the media now.

Again, I understand that from a front office point of view.

In fact, Jet apologized for expressing that to the media very quickly after.

Rizzio was not happy about that.

But as the president of base ballots, you had to brisp in how you communicate.

You're not some schmuck podcaster like me up here having the ability to make mistakes and work through talking stuff as a president, lean and crisp and coming off of few Epstein's tenure, that's what fans expect.

Another example, the intelligence spent too much room open for interpretation.

I understand what you're trying to mean, but intelligently spending comes off as you're not gonna spend money to fan create too much room for criticism.

That steals away from the narrative of the joy of what to sport.

So I think there's rooms to locasion.

But this is not exclusive just to Jed.

We've heard bosson media destroy Correig Breslo this year and how he's handled the Raffi devers sce you.

We heard Depoto from Seattle get destroyed two years ago.

Other traded than when he said that his goal is to make the playoffs eight of every ten years, and like what Carter said, not buying in just on one year, because that's not how you win.

So there is not the cleanest form of communication, and these guys are not designed and they're not try to be the best communicators.

Am I concerns that this is going to prohibit the Cubs and is an insight to how they think.

No, because we've always known this is how they think, and this is no different than how any other front office thinks.

It's just annoying.

That's kind of my takeaway.

I'm always annoyed by how, on the surface dump some of these comments seem to be from guys making millions of dollars running the team, and you just expect them to be a little bit cleaner in their delivery, like what we saw all even there for the week.

The Cubs play the Toronto Blue Jays in the middle of this week, then they go on hire.

It's at home.

We know Milwaukee's five games set corner.

We'll come back around next week for next Tuesday's episode.

I'll throw out of their mail back question.

We'll get hopefully some more stick response, but what I'll say is I'll leave it at this If you're concerned about the Cubs going forward, I understand, I really really, But at the same time, I do think taking a step back and looking at the situation ahead, it could be a lot worse.

And I'm not trying to be optimistic, I really am, but they still have a ninety seven percent chance at the playoff.

What I will say is this is room for prime regret comments.

Imagine expressing doom that there's zero hope whatsoever.

But with a ninety seven percent chance to the playoffs, that chance leaves a comment like that susceptible to just looking dump where all of a sudden you get into the playoffs.

Ball rolls are away a wildcard series, you set up well for the National Division Series.

Next thing you know, you win that series.

You're in the Championship Series.

Next thing you know, you flip the coin.

You're playing for a World Series.

That's how stupid this sport is.

So it's stupid to say you're optimist and say, oh, everything's fine, everything's gravy, everything is gonna be okay.

It's similarly stupid to say that everything's doom and glowing.

Because baseball, once you get into these small samples which we're in right now.

You are at the will of randomness.

I hate to say it, but you are.

You have forty ish something games left, So how much nonsense can happen?

Look at all the times the Cubs have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Where two thousand and eight they go into Dodger Stadium, can't swing the baseball bat.

Look at two thousand and seven, all of a sudden in the second half they go on a heater, they win the division.

Look at twenty sixteen, My god, look at twenty six series, the ups and downs offensively throughout the entire postseason.

They went down one three in the world.

Baseball is so so stupid that what I've learned over the years is during stretches like this, don't have convicted opinions because you're going to be wrong most of the time.

Because what I've learned over the years is that every time I've had one of those poles, I'm wrong, and that's the nature of the sport.

So maybe that's optimistic.

I don't know.

I don't think it is.

For me.

Optimism is being a juggernut team where you're going into the year every single year like the Dodgers have been where you can have a room for air, a bigger margin for air like we're seeing right now.

But realistically, we were never that team, even dating back to April, May and June, we were never that team with the injuries justin Steele and so on.

So I kind of expected to be in this case.

And I'm still looking at the randomness and the wildness of baseball that wants the playoff start, and the Cubs hopefully find themselves in that position that randomness continues in the positive direction.

I'll leave it there.

Thank you for list next week.