Hey, everyone, welcome back to another edition of the Cubs on Tuesday podcast.

There's eighteen games left.

The Cubs are eight and a half games up on the wild card.

Currently, San Diego's playing a night game, a late West Coast night game.

They are two and a half game is back of the Cubs for home field in that three game Wildcard series, and their seven and a half games back.

The Cubs are from Milwaukee in the division.

All signs point to the division being more or less out of reach and starting to calibrate our thinking to how the Cubs can last the next three weeks and prepare for what's going to be a dramatic three game Wildcard series.

Today's episode is going to be two different pictures we're going to paint.

The first picture is going to be one that's rosie one that's an optimistic point of view.

How can the Cubs get through the next three weeks, enter a playoff series, and then go deep into October.

The second picture is going to be a negative one.

Should the Cubs lose in a three game set or be unable to go deep into October, what would that look like?

Why would they not be able to go deep into an October run setting the stage.

So the Cubs did have some unfortunate injury news.

Their closer, Daniel Palencia, left Sunday's game in the ninth inning with what was described as posterior shoulder tightness by correct Council Monday.

The update is he's on the injured list.

Over the next three days in Chicago, he'll be receiving medical attention imaging.

The severity of the injury is currently not defined.

When Corek Counsel was asked, well, how long is Polencia going to be out and can you pitch again?

And what does this mean for the bullpen, Craig flat out said he does not have the answers yet.

If you're listening to this on Tuesday, see where they are on Thursday, See where they are on Friday.

Maybe there's news that comes out.

Maybe it's optimistic news, maybe it's negative news.

It is, though a huge blow to this bullpen.

Me personally, mentally, I'm slotting in a best case scenario.

The club's going into a playoff situation.

In Palencia is healthy, throwing one O one, one oh two.

Bret Keller is pitching well.

Caleb Theobar continues to pitch well, and you have Andrew Keetchris be that mid inning bridge.

But that's not our reality, and we have to envision what this team looks like here on out.

More news.

P Crow Armstrong did return to the field Monday in the DH role.

He filled a ball off his patella his literal kneecap a few days ago.

I honestly thought he broke his kneecap.

I'm looking at Christian Yelich former videos and when he filed the ball and broke his kneecap hadi get surgery.

I'm looking at Brandon low found the ball off his neecap.

He had to have significant time on the injured list a couple months.

I was thinking worst case scenario.

So the fact that Pete just a few days is able to take out bets and move pretty fluidly was encouraging to me.

Kyle Tucker, on the other hand, continues to not play, so he's been out for nearly a week now.

And the question we've been posed is why aren't they just putting them on the injured list.

The answer to that is they're carrying twenty eight men on their roster, so they're carrying one extra pitcher and one extra at depth position player.

Now they could put him on the injured list and you can call him Owen Casey or Moys's biasterios, and that's all fair.

What I believe Craig Council's waning is what is the consequence of putting Kyle Tucker on the injured list, missing maybe four to five extra days, and if he were to actually be healthy, maybe those four to five days are influential in keeping those mechanical changes he had just made two three weeks ago.

So in a normal situation when there's not a twenty eight man roster, I would have been right there with most fans thinking, okay, you know what, just go ahead and ILM.

But because Kyle Tucker's last month has been so peculiar, we're talking extreme ends of just grounding out weekly to the first base side, getting a brief three game bench just to reset his mentals, and coming back and immediately performing in Anaheim all the way up into that injury last week.

I'm inclined to think this is actually the best path forward.

You're not losing depth, you're not losing critical at beats, and you're.

Able to risk a little bit and.

Hope that on a day to day basis, Tucker is ready because you need him in that three game playoff series, clicking like you have currently an eight and a half game lead on the wild Car spot unless unless things collapse, the savings of you know, maybe ten extra plate appearances by Owen Casey versus Carlos Santana is likely negligible.

That's the way I believe this fro An office is viewing it, and correct council, and frankly, so am I So I'm fine with Kyle Tucker on a data DA basis and not being eye up at this point.

So let's start with painting the rosy picture, the optimistic one.

What would the team look like if they go deep into an October run?

And what does it look like over the next three weeks to plant the seeds of that happening.

First and foremost attention is going to be spent on the bullpen.

Daniel plenci is out.

Shoulder injuries can be unpredictable, they can be very lengthy.

Personally, I'm operating that we're not going to see the version of Daniel Palencia that made it comfortable prior to September.

I think right now, just giving me all the information I'm recalibrating myself.

If you want to think, okay, what is the peak scenario.

Well, Daniel Plancia comes back healthy in two weeks and he's fine.

But let's operate that we need the bullpen to continue forward without a Daniel Plancia.

So what does that look like?

First and foremost, it looks like Brad Keller is your ninth inning guy, or you mix and match Caleb Theobar with selective matchups.

Brad Keller has not given up an earned run since the All Star break.

He's been dominant, just three singles allowed over that stretch.

He is a two point one er, so he's your late inning max leverage guy with Caleb.

Like Keller, Theobar has an ear ray of two point one to two in that all offers the ability for Cret Council to play the matchups.

If you have a lefty loaded lineup in the ninth inning, well you lean on your veteran theel Bar.

If you have let's say a right handed lineup loaded in the eighth inning, well then you use Brad Keller in that spot, and then vice versa.

If the writers are loaded in the ninth inning, will use color and he used thel Bar in the eighth inning.

That's the way I kind.

Of see both those situations working itself out.

Frankly, it's not that bad of an option for crect Council.

Then the question goes to what about the seventh innion.

The best case scenario there is Andrew Keetridge continues to look good and you get positive development from Porter Hotch.

So looking at Andrew Keetridge, his peripherals are pretty elite.

So far he has a three point five euro ra Granit.

He'd have a few rough audience or leon with the Cubs, but overall, if fourteen innies pitched, he has a thirty three percent strike out ray and he's walking under four percent of batters in that stretch over time.

If that continues, it be like one of the best ratios of any reliever in baseball.

Strikeouts to walks, Keytridge allows Craig Council to go through different parts of the lineup, no matter the hand in this this is important.

So Kittridge's staff is a sharp, breaking slider that he can use both the lefties and to arrietyes.

Okay, So that allows if there's a mistake pitch to variety.

Will you limit the risk of a home run?

If there's a mistake pitch to a lefty, you limit the risk of a home run.

That's what makes Kittridge so valuable and why he does not have platoon splits.

I give the example what you have theobar and you have Keller, who might be used against riiety lefty Tom and the parts the lineup.

Kittridge is going to offer more flexibility.

The best case scenario there is he continues to pitch.

Well, then if you started thinking crazy, Porter Hodge has looked better in his most recent three outings, so you might be thinking, well, did he just get sheld like two weeks ago, didn't he give up like several runs in a forty pitch inning.

Yes, but since then pretty lockdown.

And in fact, his velocity over the past several starts was up back to ninety seven miles per hour.

This is a couple ticks higher than what we saw before the injury.

Porter Hodge has the best off in this existing Cubs bullpen.

He has a sweeper and he has that elite cut ride fastball that is essentially Kate Horton's fastball on steroids.

In terms of the movement profile.

Now let's get crazy, So I'm listing four guys.

There.

You got Brad Keller, you got Caleb Dielbar, you got Andrew.

Kittridge being the bridge.

You got the high ceiling guy in Porter Hodge, allowing you maybe to pitch higher leverage.

You also have Taylor Rogers, who Granits I know, has not performed well with the Cubs so far, but his peripherals do look pretty good, getting whiffs, not walking guys.

Just the home runs have been the problem.

But over the.

Past three years he's had an ear rays of twos and threes.

He has that track record.

I would not be surprised if he comes back to Earth.

And what correct counselor can use him in versus let's say Kittridge, is he is able to use Taylor Rodgers in more of a lefty dominant fashion because his stuff lends better against lefties.

He has more, for instance, heart sweeper away to left handed batters, heart stinker into left handed batters.

That's gonna be your traditional more or less loogie left handed specialist.

And do you remember Michael Soroka, Well, he just had a rehabouting a couple of days ago, and last year.

He actually did pretty well in relief.

He had a two point seventy five ear ray, a strikeout rate of nearly forty percent in thirty six Indians pitched.

He has that unique.

Salurb curveball that we did see in The Cubs have been describing that his velocity is back up to normal.

You may remember when they traded for him, his velocity was three miles per hour slower.

His velocity is back to normal, so they said, that's six guys right there, Brad Keller, Andrew Kittrich, Caleb Thielbar Porter Hodge, Taylor Rogers, and Michael Soroka.

The high ceiling guys there are going to be Porter Hodge and Michael Soroka.

Then the starting pitching is also getting healthy.

Jamison Tyon is back, That calf injury is better.

He's back.

Javias Sade has pitched well, going deeper into his starts.

So you have.

Jameson Tyon hopefully offering innings.

Potential for a starting rotation boosted by number one showed at Imanaga, number two Matthew Boyd, and number three Kate Horton.

So there is ways to get high leverage outs without Daniel Plancia.

Now that's the perfect scenario.

He comes back healthy.

But if he can't, they have Caleb Theobar and Brad Kelor inducing weak contact with high ceiling guys in a former porter Hodge and Michael Soroka and more or less stable veteran potential guys and Andrew Keishridge and Taylor Rogers supplementing the existing staff.

Then you might be able to redefine a role as for Javia as Sad and James and Tyon in let's say a three game series in a piggyback role.

Well, the bullpen's fine, right, that's the optimistic scenario.

What about the offense.

What are some of the underline trends that should inspire confidence.

I know everyone does not want to hear about expect to weight on base average.

I'm raising my hand.

I get annoyed by it as well.

However, if you do look at some of the recent trends over the past month, we're seeing expected weight on base averages for Dansby Swanson over four hundred, Ian Happ over four hundred, says Zuki.

Weirdly enough, three eighty.

I know he's looked odd at times.

We talked about him last week and how he just looks off in between pitches, but when he does make quality contact, it tends to be hit far and hard.

It's just a frequency with which we need to see that from saya Zuki, but the best case scenario is there as well.

The batketball profile.

Remains the same for most of the lineup.

Kyle Tucker comes back healthy,