Navigated to Ep 1287 - Indiana vs Ohio State Preview w/ Taylor Lehman (B1G Title Keys + Advanced Stats) - Transcript

Ep 1287 - Indiana vs Ohio State Preview w/ Taylor Lehman (B1G Title Keys + Advanced Stats)

Episode Transcript

Welcome back to Crimson Cast, GAIL and Clavio and Taylor Layman joining you here on the show.

We could not do a Big 10 Championship Preview Week series of podcasts without finishing with a preview with Taylor.

As many of you know, Taylor is sunsetting sized Bison here soon, but he hasn't completely left the mound, still throwing heat, and he's here to chat with us about this game.

A uniquely a game.

He's uniquely suited and qualified to talk about giving his background.

Taylor, it's great to have you on the show, man.

How you doing?

Yeah, thanks for having me, Galen.

Yeah, no, I'm glad that, you know, I I can feel my Ohio State like insider them like timing out after a while, not covering the team.

I'm glad you have Stephane now.

Stephane did a really great job when you last on your podcast.

Really enjoyed his episode.

But yeah, yeah, that's I, I've been, you know, doing some content for some Ohio State media this week.

And, you know, it's actually really funny 'cause this is the busiest week that I've had with with this season, with Bison, the week after I announced that it's coming to an end.

So you know it is what it is.

Always out works.

That's good thing though.

You know, we're well, we're still glad.

We're glad you're still doing stuff.

And it's what a big game.

I mean, I, I did a podcast with Rhett Lewis, which many people I think will have heard by now, where I started off by calling it the biggest game in IU football history.

I mean, maybe the Rose Bowl in 67 was a bigger game.

It just kind of depends on how you want to look at it.

This is the first time in IU history they've been this highly ranked.

It's the first time they've ever been in a one versus 2 matchup.

It's an opportunity to win an outright Big 10 title for the first time since 1945, something they didn't do in the Rose Bowl year.

And, and they're facing what Jack Grossman on the podcast I did with him earlier today, you know, called, you know, this Ohio State has final boss vibes to them in the video game world.

And it does kind of feel that way.

But it's one of those weird circumstances where you might have to face the final boss twice before you actually win the game this year.

And that might make this as big as anything 'cause it's not just a huge game with so much on the line.

Big 10 title, outright number one seed in the College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy.

But it's also a measuring stick that both of these teams need as they go in to the postseason.

And that's that's just not a scenario that we've ever seen with IU football.

I know Ohio State's seen similar sorts of scenarios in the past, but this is uncharted.

This is Tara Incognita for IU football at this point.

I haven't fact checked this, but I'm going to take it.

I was on Bill Landis's podcast.

We recorded yesterday and it just came out today and he said that there have been 108 conference championship games and this is just the third one between a one and two team.

The other two were Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Florida, Alabama teams and so like that man, that's insane.

But it I will say, you know, I wasn't alive, you know, for some of those older games that were so important to the, the Indiana football history.

But this kind of feels like, you know, they're working on changing the trajectory of the entire program.

It feels less, less like they're trying to snatch something and more they're trying to prove something.

And, and I think, you know, I thought Dane made he kind of said something that, you know, you and I were kind of saying outside of podcast, which was, you know, this, it's it's in such rare territory in college football 2025 where you can have a game between, you know, top two teams or just two top teams and not have an effect the discourse around them as much as it would if it was moved during the regular season.

So, you know, you kind of get to play, you get to like you were saying, you get to have this measuring stick game without the trapdoor beneath you.

It the the stakes are they're high, but they're not, you know, necessarily as high.

And so I think Bill asked me, like, what is the mindset of Indiana going into this?

Do you think Ohio, Ohio State is going to get their all?

And I was like, well, first of all, yes, but second, you know, it's in their best interest to give it their best shot because they need to learn how good this team how, how good different aspects of this team is or are.

And so, you know, I have some concerns.

So maybe maybe they can kind of game plan or maybe see, you know, exactly how tough that part of their scheme is or something like that.

So you know that it's, it's a really fascinating game that I think really matters as much as people say that it doesn't.

It does matter and I, I will say after a little bit of wow, this game doesn't matter because both these teams are going to go to the playoffs.

A little of that talk early.

I thought Tom Fornelli did a great job on the Cover 3 podcast to talking about how, I mean, Ohio State hasn't won the Big 10 title since 2020.

They would love to win the Big 10 title.

They've watched Michigan do it a couple of times.

You know, it was what was missing from their resume alongside beating Michigan period last year on the way to the national championship.

And for Indiana, it's not just the program stuff.

It's not just the chance to win a third Big 10 title in program history, the first outright one since, you know, immediately after World War 2 ended.

But in the modern area of of Indiana football, it is a way to announce that we belong in this mix.

We belong on the field with Ohio State.

We belong on the field with the other top teams in the country.

It is such a unique moment in Indiana football history from that perspective, which is why they could carry so much weight.

I mean, this is where I always think about that Rose Bowl game.

I mean, if they'd won, that would have been great.

It wouldn't have fundamentally changed anything about the trajectory of Indiana football moving forward.

And, and you could say, well, that's crazy.

But look, Minnesota won titles in the 50s and 60s.

I know, I know Michigan State won titles.

It didn't really fundamentally change where they were, their station.

This could change the station that Indiana's at in college football, and they might get there anyway.

But as Kurt Signetti was alluding to in his press conference when he was talking about the recruiting gap between Ohio State and Indiana, it's like, you know, there's still a gap.

And you know, Ohio State's recruiting at a significantly higher level, But this can help close it like you can.

You can make some strides.

You make a lot more strides if you can walk into a recruits living room and say you don't have to go to Ohio State to win a Big 10 title because not only did we win a Big 10 title, we beat Ohio State on a neutral field to win a Big 10 title that carries an immense amount of weight.

It kicks open maybe what few remaining doors are still closed to Kurt Cignetti's Indiana program.

So that's that's why the game matters.

It's not just the historical stuff which matters to all these IU fans, but it matters about how much further up the escalator can you get Indiana football.

This is a way to kind of jump start that even more.

I'll add one more thing to the stakes of the game, which is that I think maybe curse Agnetti's thinking about this maybe more than anything else, which is that they did not show their best face last season when they played Ohio State.

This is a chance to show that, you know, that that's that margin, that scoring margin wasn't necessarily representative of how good those two teams were.

This is your chance to say, hey, you know, people are really getting carried away with the the gap between Ohio State and Indiana since that game.

Let's let's work on proving that the the gap is actually much narrower than than than people believe.

Yeah.

No, it's 100% the case.

And it's one of those things where I I think about it from this perspective the and you know, and I want to get a lot more into that.

In fact, we may start there.

In fact, let me let's pause.

I want to first say thank you to Home Field Apparel, our presenting sponsor, as they'll be all over Indianapolis coming up on Saturday.

They're actually Friday too.

They'll be at the Dugout Bar on Virginia Ave.

in the late afternoon and evening.

Are they really Galen?

Would I lie to you, Taylor?

You've never lied to me before.

No, that's awesome.

Yeah, so Home Field is going to be at the Dugout Bar, 621 Virginia Ave.

from 5:00 to 8:00 PM on this Friday, December 5th.

They're gonna have a home field Hoosier pop up shop.

So they'll sell IU apparel, the the varsity jackets, the dad hats, the the the coaching jacket.

They'll have Big 10 championship gear available and on sale while supplies last I've seen that shirt.

It's awesome.

And if you're wearing home field gear, you get free drink specials and you can also get a free limited edition home field koozie at the event.

Actually, I don't know if it's free, but I do know it's limited edition.

They're also going to be at Brothers on basically from 10:00

AM to 6

AM to 6:00 PM on Saturday, Brothers Downtown, 235 S Meridian St.

Again, they're going to have the home field house pop up shop IU and Louisville apparel before the basketball game, which of course tips at 2:00.

They'll have again the free drink specials.

They'll have some Modelo giveaways in merch.

They'll have a class the the home field indie classic game watch party for the basketball game.

Then they're going to switch over from 2:00 to 6:00 and they're going to have IU and Ohio State gear for sale at Brothers.

I will also be there from 5:00

to 6

to 6:00 PM with our friends at Home Field.

And so you want to stop by, get some merch, hang out with your friends and get ready for either or both games.

That's the place to go.

So again, home field apparel, go check them out.

Use the code home 23.

Get 15% off your first order online.

Also just quick reminder were brought to you by Posh Hotel Bloomington.

Go to poshhotelbloomington.com for the finest of luxury accommodations in town.

Located right on Kirkwood Ave.

enjoy the Infrared spa and the Kurt Zignetti room.

They're not the same room, 2 separate rooms but they both are magic in their own particular way.

As well as a full service bar with some delightful cocktails.

I had one.

It was excellent.

And you've got some great luxury accommodations throughout, so check them out again, poshhotelbloomington.com.

All right, so Taylor, let's go back in time.

This is shocking to me.

Let's go back in time, 54 weeks.

It was not that long ago that Indiana travelled to Columbus and took on the Ohio State Buckeyes, and that was a game that did not go Indiana's way.

They lose 38 to 15, and it's a game that to some degree, when you coupled it with the Notre Dame game, perhaps, well, not perhaps I think unfairly defined Indiana's season as plucky under plucky overachiever that underachieved in the games where they were playing legitimate playoff teams.

We heard that Indiana was was fraudulent.

We heard Indiana couldn't hang with people.

When you dig into the statistics, especially the Ohio State game, it doesn't really bear out that way.

Ohio State was certainly the superior team, but Indiana, especially defensively, hung in in a way that I don't think they've gotten a lot of credit for.

But it was special teams and offense that really let them down in that game.

First of all, you know, when you think about the Indiana team that we saw take the field then versus the Indiana team that we're going to see take the field on Saturday, what are the big differences in your mind that delineate between those two rosters?

Yeah, the biggest thing is just the baseline of talent.

The the floor for the at least for the starters is much higher.

You know, we like just look at the safeties, for example.

You know, last year, the first one that comes to mind, Sean Asbury, is, you know, he is from the Group of Five level.

And, and, and now you have what you have Amari Farrell, who's always been in Indiana, but now you have Lewis Moore.

And then they brought in Devin Boykin from NC State, you know, as their Rover.

And so, you know, that's, you know, that's not really fair because they lost Noah Pierre last year in the middle of the season.

But like that's, that's more talent than they had at safety.

And that's just one example.

The, the defensive front is also insane.

The talent that they, that they brought in there.

So you know, they, they've, I, I think that's going to go a long way just in terms of attrition And, and I, I think that you can also say something about the offensive line, I suppose.

And so, you know, I think that's the biggest thing, but also the, the offense is a little more dynamic.

You know, they don't have, they don't really have like the slot receivers they had last year with Miles Price and Keyshawn Williams, but they can beat you in a lot of different ways that I think we, we, I don't want to do revision as history here, but I think we thought that Indiana's offense could beat you in a ton of different ways last year.

But you know, if you know, that didn't necessarily bear out.

And so this year they've actually proven it like you, they can actually beat you in in many different ways in tough environments.

And I think that's, you know, the tough environments thing is a third thing.

They they've already played in in really tough environments.

Even though this is going to be in a Dome, you know, the crowd most likely be split.

So it, it's, it's going to be less difficult than the Ohio in the Ohio State game last year.

But they've shown that they can win in many different ways and, and, and overcome different types of challenges against a lot of the top competition in the Big 10.

And I, you know, I just listed a bunch of things there, but that's, you know, that those, that's those are the first three things that come to mind when I think about last year's team versus this year's team.

Yeah, it's like there are some big differences.

And I think certainly the offensive line for Indiana, yeah, they've had their individual games where they haven't looked that good or, or they've had to change what they've done.

But you know, this is going to end up being one of the higher graded offensive lines in the the league.

And I don't know that we necessarily knew that that was going to be the case coming into the year.

But Carter Smith, offensive lineman of the OR left tackle of the year, whatever the award was that he won this year, Yeah, he was offensive lineman of the year, Pat Coogan coming in out of the portal and and has really been a not just a steadying presence on the line, but it's been a leader in the locker room.

Khalil Benson, there were a lot of questions about him and he's been, I think, more than adequate at right tackle.

And and, you know, I mean, even when Drew Evans went down with the injury this year, a it wasn't a season ending.

Well, at least we don't think it was.

He's he's I think they're planning on having him back for full starter snaps for this game.

But they didn't fall apart on the offensive line.

They have some depth there.

They've been able to to bring in a giant or they've been able to bring in Mahalski.

And it's not been something where it became an immediate disaster.

And so that's that to me is kind of the big one.

The depth at receiver and and the depth of receiving targets is as we've talked about, it's not just that Charlie Becker stepped up.

It's not just that EJ Williams was a more consistent player.

It's not just that Omar Cooper found this entire new life as a slot receiver.

It's also Riley Nowakowski becoming like a legitimate threat, not just for catching, but for yak that just didn't exist on last year's team.

And even if you want to say, OK, you know, you've got kind of an analog with Tyson Lawton and Justice Ellison from last year with Roman Ambi and Kaylan Black in the backfield this year.

They've been, I think, more effective, more consistently.

And it's been a trade off thing where they each bring something like legitimately unique to the running game with depth as well 'cause you've got Kobe Martin that comes off the bench and and does well.

And then of course, maybe the biggest difference, and one I've heard a lot of the podcast that have talked about this game really fixate on is that Curtis Work was a really good quarterback last year.

But Fernando Mendoza is that much better as a quarterback and just brings not just a different approach to the game, but has been able to adapt I think a lot more effectively to what defenses have thrown at him then Work was able to, especially as the season came to a close last year.

Yeah, yeah, I know.

I, I wrote a piece for 11 Warriors this week, too.

And I said, and one of the first things was like, when it comes to Fernando Mendoza, they asked, you know, what's made him such a great quarterback?

And I was like, you know, normally when people talk about intangibles, I kind of tune out, you know, it's kind of a cliche.

And I'm like, everyone has intangibles, you know, like that.

That's why they play quarterback.

But like, Fernando Mendoza has kind of reinvigorated that idea for me.

And, and when I listen to him, I've listened to a lot of college quarterbacks talk.

And when I listen to him talk about defenses and what he sees and what he's read and how he prepares, it is something entirely different.

It's like a class on of its own.

And you know that I don't think that, you know, numbers can't define that.

So you know, it is intangible and, and just the way he's just clearly a supreme.

He's he's supreme in his preparation and his pre and post snap reads.

And I think that's something that, you know, a lot of fans can't really see and and you know, they might take for granted.

And so I I think that's, that's that's huge for Fernando Mendoza.

And and like you were saying, Galen, I think that is, you know, not that Curtis work couldn't couldn't do pre snap reads.

He I mean, he absolutely could, but it's, it's just a different level with Fernando Mendoza.

Yeah.

Defensively, this Indiana team is better than they were last year, and they were really good last year.

And it's an interesting thing because I remember when we talked at the beginning of the year about the concerns about the defense, it was the secondary.

It was also just kind of an uncertainty about how do they replace CJ W?

How do they, you know, do they get the same production out of a linebacking core that outside of Aiden Fisher still had some questions?

And it's been, you know, not just a statistical marvel how well Indiana's played defensively this year, but the way that you've managed to get continued development for guys like Isaiah Jones, on top of bringing people in like Steven Daly.

The fact that you lose Kellen Wyatt, who was one of the big additions on this defense, and you didn't lose a step.

It's just been really fascinating to watch what Brian Haynes and that coaching staff have managed to put together to forge a better defense than the already great defense that existed last year.

Yeah, yeah, no, for sure.

And I remember watching in the spring game that it was extremely intense and very rotation heavy and definitely fitting to the looks the offense was getting.

And, you know, a lot more 3 linebackers says, of course, which we saw towards the end of the last season.

But, you know, I, I think that just the, the, the versatility and the multiplicity and we talked about these things going into the season, but they really bore out.

And I, I just think it's really unusual.

You know, I, I, I've said, I've said people.

You know, Ohio State fans, I don't think a lot of Ohio State fans are watching Indiana football.

And so I, I said, you know, that Ohio State hasn't really seen a defensive front like Indiana's and they're like, well, what about Texas and Michigan?

It's like, yeah, they haven't seen a defensive front like Indiana's.

Like they, you know, like they, they have like Michigan and Texas have great talent.

All their defensive fronts.

They they've, they've had some statistically successful defensive lines.

That's that's true.

But neither of them is there with Indiana.

And so, you know, and then we'll talk about this later, I'm sure.

But like, they got to get pressure on Julian Sayin and that's that, that I think this Indiana team might be able to to make that happen.

Yeah.

It hasn't happened very often this year and, and Sayin has done a great job of being very accurate because he's had time to be accurate.

And then you add in they've developed their running game over the last month and now that's become a thing.

I mean, it's an Ohio State team that's incredibly talented.

And you know, when you we're going to get to the chart in a second, you saw me accidentally hit the wrong button there a minute ago, folks.

But the the thing about this Ohio State, Indiana matchup is there's no question that if you were just to kind of meter out like who's got the most talented team from how you would normally measure football talent, Ohio State is more talented.

But Indiana, I would argue, is probably getting the highest activation of their talent of anybody in college football, maybe not more than Ohio State, maybe more.

It may be that, you know, Indiana's reaching 9899% of potential and Ohio State's only reaching 95% of potential.

But Ohio State's potential is much higher than Indiana's.

So, you know, whatever you want to do, the equation on the point is this is a game where the talent gap was significantly greater last year.

And it's not just about the talent.

It's about the execution that the talent is able to to put out on the field.

It's about the coaches being able to maximize that.

And that's what makes this match up so intriguing because on paper, these are the two best teams in the country.

And it's a pretty big gap to the third best team in the country.

And that's not accidental.

And I think that's why you and I and so many people that follow football closely are so excited about this game because if it lives up to the promise on that it has on paper, this will be a game that we will remember for a long time.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

And, you know, I think going into this game thinking it's going to be a blowout is doing yourself an injustice, you know, and, you know, I'm sure there are plenty of people who who believe that, you know, both ways, but, you know, one way in particular.

And so but it's it's going to be a it's going to be a close game.

And I, you know, I was looking back at last year's game, Galen, I know we were talking about the, the last season's game a little bit ago, but you know, I was, they went like 30 minutes without getting into Ohio State territory.

They scored on their first drive and then 30 minutes with without, without getting there.

And then a lot of it was the weather.

A lot of it was not great punting performance and, and, and a couple turnovers.

And then you go by the time they got back into Ohio State territory, and I think Signetti commented on this too, it was 28 to 7 Ohio State.

So they, I mean, they lost the game in the second quarter basically.

And so I don't think that's going to be the case this year.

I, I think that you know that and like I said, you know, Indiana's proven that they can win in many different ways.

And so I, I think we're going to see that.

I mean, it's going to have to happen against, I guess an Ohio State team if Indiana's going to win this thing, because that's the way it's happened against the three toughest teams in the road that they've already played.

So, you know, I, I, I, I definitely have concerns.

But yeah, I mean, I I think Ohio State fan should too.

Yeah, that's the thing.

I think any reasonable IU fan who's really looked at the numbers and really looked at the the matchups, there are definitely concerns and there are things that could go wrong for Indiana in this game.

As we saw last year, you know, and again, Indiana LED in that game.

They were in the game right up until they dropped the punt.

And you know that things were already trending Ohio State's way by that point.

But that was the that was the string that unravelled everything for Indiana and they never really recovered.

But it's still fascinating to go back and look at that.

And if you take that victory formation touchdown run out of what Ohio State did, as I mentioned on the earlier podcast, Ohio State basically rushed for 2.8 yards per carry and had 76 yards rushing.

I mean, it's that's a game that when you look at it, you're like, OK, what what was missing and what was missing was the Indiana's ability to move the ball on offense, Indiana's ability to keep from going 3 and out, Indiana's ability to keep the opposing defensive players off of Curtis Rourke.

And, you know, that could go wrong again in this game, but many of the conditions that led to those things occurring aren't going to be present in this game.

In terms of the intangibles as you put them in terms of the atmosphere of the stadium, in terms of the weather, 'cause there will not be any unless something, unless Jim Ursei's, you know, going to like his ghost is going to come in and open up the window, which I doubt is going to happen.

So that that's, that's one of the intriguing things.

It's like it's a, it's a better Ohio State team, I would argue than last year.

It's a much better Indiana team than last year.

But we always talk about how home field advantage seems to get ignored by college football pundits when they talk about how teams play.

And we know that it matters.

You could ask Tennessee about that from last year.

That's not going to be an issue in this game.

And so how do these teams look on a neutral field?

That, to me is a really fascinating aspect to all of this.

Let's look at the chart.

I'm going to let me switch views here.

There we go.

That's a little bit better.

So I pop this up, my first words were damn, this is close.

And you said, yeah, it's basically worthless this time around.

I mean, I I've looked at a ton of these charts, Taylor.

I don't know.

There aren't many of them that have a one point expected S&P plus difference.

It's it's wild.

It really is.

Yeah, yeah.

No, it's it's, yeah, it's true.

And you know, these like you were saying, Galen, it's pretty much just been these two teams and then everybody else.

And you know, it's it it's, it's shock.

It is shocking that how how close this is.

And you know, kind of, you know, I think most people know going into it is going to be close.

But I mean, when you look at like, just like the I think the biggest one to me that jumps out is the conversion rates both on offense and defense.

They're both top 10 on both sides of the ball.

And when you look at the actual charts that I put them on, like it is close.

So like these two teams are are used to asserting themselves and getting what they want and something's going to have to give.

And so you know what's that going to be?

Yeah.

I mean, when I look at this like the couple of things that that stick out to me and they're, they're very marginal differences, but they are still differences.

So a, I'm, I'm fascinated by how unexplosive, relatively speaking, both of these offenses are.

We knew about this about Indiana.

And as it turns out, Ohio State's really good at limiting explosive plays on defense.

Well, ha ha, that's not what Indiana has relied on all season.

They've had to do it with with sub.

Did we ever come up with a name for this?

We talked about like sub explosive plays or nearly explosive plays or whatever semi.

Explosive, yeah.

Explosive plays.

But then Ohio State's offense really hasn't had much in terms of explosion rate either, which I think is interesting because I think that's the image that most people have is that they're just dropping bombs all over the field and that that doesn't really bear out in the statistics.

No, no, I mean, the biggest, the biggest maybe downfield threat they have is Carnell Tate, which is really great downfield threat.

But but yeah, I mean, it's it's it's an offense that runs a lot of 12 personnel and you know that that doesn't always lend itself to explosion.

And they've also run the ball quite a bit over the course of the entire season, which is what these, you know, success rates are.

And so, you know, and, and explosion rates, so that it it hasn't, they haven't really looked to be super explosive throughout the season.

And so I think, you know, I think India is going to get a different form of that in this game, which honestly kind of concerns me.

So I don't know if that explosion rate is necessarily indicative of how Ohio State's going to approach this game.

I think we're going to see some at least a tense at some explosiveness.

Well, I think Ohio State would be foolish if they didn't try to test Indiana secondary because obviously even though it didn't happen in every game, it happened in enough games where they did get burned deep, often times on blown coverages where the safety and the cornerback missed the the transition point on a receiver.

What was interesting is it never happened more than once in a game.

And it was something that they always adapted to.

Now you don't want to you don't never want to give that up if you don't, if you can avoid it.

And it's been a while since we saw one of those given up in a game.

And I'm not going to count the Wisconsin game because that, that fake field goal or fake, not fake field, but the 4th down.

But that was such a weird play in the way that it it happened that that, you know, the the actual like we meant to throw it and we were going to throw it deep like Luke Altmeyer did in that Illinois game or like Dante Moore did in the Oregon game.

But even those were kind of misdirection plays where Amari Farrell got confused by something going on in the backfield initially.

But it seems like they cleaned a lot of that up in the second-half of the season.

But I I mean, Ohio State would be foolish if they didn't try something like that.

But I think that those are the types of plays where Indiana's defense has got to get pressure on saying, because that's how you keep that from being properly executed on the offensive end.

And, you know, that also kind of makes it so they're not going to try that again if they get shredded on the offensive line on a play attempt like that.

Yeah, no, absolutely.

And I thought your point about, you know, it did never happen more than once in a game is a really significant point.

You know what I will say though, you know, in these big games, it has been those those big plays that have hurt Indiana historically though, you know, like even even in the the big games this year, I mean, how many times did Fernando Mendoza throw an interception before the game-winning drive was it was at least twice.

And so the three times it.

Was Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.

All three of them, yeah.

OK, Yeah.

So, you know, big plays from the other team are not going to break this team's back the way that maybe they did in 2024.

Thinking about like the long run from Notre Dame and of course the the punt return like you were talking about Galen.

But I, you know, and we've seen, I mean, even in the Oregon game, like, like you said, like they had a big play, Indiana still came away with the win there.

And so, you know, I think surrendering the big play is not necessarily the end of Indiana's chances.

The, the margin of error is a little bit wider than maybe it was in, in that regard last year.

So yeah, no, the explosion is, is interesting to me.

I'm, I'm curious to see how that one plays out.

Because even even looking at Indiana's offensive explosion versus, you know, Ohio State, they don't, they don't really surrender a lot of explosion either.

They're, they're, they don't surrender explosion really at all.

And so, but Indiana's never really needed to get explosion to have to, to have a high conversion rate.

So you know, it, it'll be, it'll be interesting.

It'll be interesting to see that.

I know Bill Landis said that he thinks that there's some room for Indiana to exploit on the scene, which I think, you know, screams like Omar Cooper and Charlie Becker.

So, you know, we'll see there.

But, you know, I, I think, I think Indiana's gonna have to attack Ohio State with explosives too, through, through the passing game specifically.

Yeah, this is And I'm fascinated how they do that because it's been a while since we really saw the passing game for Indiana at full strength.

I mean, Elijah Serrat played in the Purdue game, but the passing game was so rough because of the cold that you didn't really get a good sense of what it would look like.

We don't know what EJ Williams status is going to be or if he would even start at this point over Charlie Becker.

But having Surat Cooper, Becker and Noakowski available, you would be foolish, I think, not to leverage that to try to get downfield and larger chunks.

And you know, I mean, look, I I still think that the key for Indiana's going to be can they get the running game going?

Because they never got it going last year against Ohio State and they never got it going last year against Notre Dame.

But if they can get, if they can get in that 4 yards per carry range or better in this game, you know, that's that's going to be key.

But they may need the pass to work first in order to open that up, rather than the traditional style of it being the other way around.

Yeah, yeah, I, I tend to think the same thing again.

And I think they're going to have the pass in order to run.

That is actually probably my biggest concern in this game is the the the rushing mismatch, which is that Ohio State, they do not allow much against his own rushing schemes.

And that's pretty much all the Indiana runs is his own rushing schemes.

There have been some, you know, plays broken off against Ohio State with gap schemes.

Purdue had some and Michigan had some too.

They both run pretty heavy gap schemes.

So I was, I was actually looking at the teams that defend zone rushing schemes, the best in the country.

And Indiana's played in the top 60.

They've played four teams and the, the best team was Old Dominion.

You know, they, they ran for like 300 plus yards on Old Dominion, but with a lot of carries, the only average like just over 5 yards of carry against Old Dominion.

Remember those short yardage Rohnsburg that was rough against Old Dominion, you know, and then then the rest are like Wisconsin, Michigan State and and Penn State.

Those were the other three.

And Indiana didn't have the best of rushing games against those teams.

So, you know, I, I am very concerned about the Russian game against Ohio State.

But like you were saying, Galen, if they can get kind of a dynamic passing attack going, it might open up some some room inside where they can kind of get get some running going.

What is it about Ohio State's defensive front that makes it so effective against zone blocking?

Yeah, it's the it's the versatility and strength.

And so like Kaden Curry's a good example.

He there's not a defensive end built like Kaden Curry, but Kyle Kamara's kind of close.

But when you look at like where he lines up, he can line up in the a gap as a defensive end, you know, the a gaps either side of the center.

And he's done it more than 50 times, which is way more than than any other defensive end.

So, and he's not even, you know, he's not even, he's not even a defensive end.

That's like not an edge rusher, you know, like he's an edge rusher and he goes down into the A gap.

And so that is just like he can attack any level of Indiana's offensive line, which is pretty scary.

It's a pretty scary thought, but then you know, Kate McDonald, their nose tackle, he was, I'm pretty sure he was near the defensive line, defensive lineman of the year in the Big 10.

And so Pat, who is going to have his hands full and and, you know, outside of that, I mean, there's, you know, their their linebacker play is just so versatile.

Like you never know what they're going to do.

There's Arvel Reese, of course, like the future first round pick, who can play either outside linebacker or defensive end on any given play.

And it doesn't matter if he's lined up at either of those positions.

He could play the opposite.

And you know, reading that is just really difficult.

So you know, there's the Matt Patricia can do a lot.

There's a ton of versatility on this defense.

I'm going to write about that.

I go through each point of versatility and I haven't already written in the BSB draft for you to go out tonight.

But the, it's, it's, it's like you know, the, the, the zone schemes.

If you don't know what a zone rushing scheme is, is it's not necessarily trying to open up a hole.

It's more like moving your offensive line in a certain direction to hopefully open some vertical seams for your rusher.

And then you hope that your rusher, your ball carrier can identify those seams and get through them.

But there's so much athleticism at the second and third levels of this Ohio State defense that if it's not blown up at the first level, then it could be any of the others.

Because you know, you have Sonny Styles, Arnold Reese, Caleb Downs is another one at safety.

I mean, he lines he he's a fantastic coverage safety, but lines up on the defensive line more than any other coverage safety in the in the in the nation because he's just so like friend of Fernando Mendoza referred to it, his hip, his hip mobility, like he can flip his hips on a dime.

And, and so that's, that's something that you don't really see a lot because it's not really on TV, but it's, it is noticeable.

And so the, it's that like, yeah, the, the athleticism and, and, and also the they don't really attack with their front.

They, they haven't actually brought a bunch of havoc with their defensive line.

They don't have a super high havoc rate as a defense.

It's more just kind of what Oregon used to, kind of what Oregon was the kind of like Oregon's defensive philosophy, which is like spread out horizontally.

But the thing with Ohio State's defense is that they can do so much more with individual talent and athleticism than Oregon could.

Which is why when you think about how much talent OR has on their defense that that Ohio State is at that much higher of a level.

I mean, look, it's and this is the fascinating thing.

I mean, I'm just fascinated to think about what, what does Shanahan cook up in terms of trying to counter that?

Because I'd be certainly aware of everything that you're talking about.

And, and again, this is I guess where Indiana might have to try to attack this by flanking it as opposed to going into the teeth of it.

And if you can do that enough that you then open up and cause them to back off a little bit or there being some, some, some question marks about what they should be doing, maybe then you get that space that you need where you can break a long run.

It feels more like a Kalon Black game Venom Roman Hembi game Roman Hembi I think will be important in short yardage situations, but it feels like Black might be the better suited of the two backs to take advantage of what gaps might be available.

Yeah, we've kind of seen that from from Indiana too, where there is like a more stout front.

They do give the ball to Caitlin Black a little more often to Ron, although I will say Galen, I think Roman Hembi could see snaps purely because they want that passing threat like Kaylan Black can.

He can catch the ball.

But Roman Hembi, I mean, he's 4th in the big 10 amongst running backs and and yards per catch.

Like he averages 11 yards when he catches the ball.

He's kind of wild.

I didn't realize that.

So he's he's he's an extremely good pass catcher out of the backfield, which kind of takes away one of those versatile players and and that defense because they have to account for Roman Hembi in the passing game.

But yeah, no, I I agree.

I think if if it whoever's running the ball, I think Kayla Black is probably going to be receiving the ball a bit more often.

In terms of the passing game, you know, this is an Indiana offense that has not thrown the ball deep a ton this year.

They've thrown the ball, it feels like more intermediate.

And then they've gotten a lot of yards after catch.

You know, it's it's that's worked really well for them throughout the course of the year and they've got a physical, I don't know, advantage is probably too strong of a word, but they're certainly not at a physical disadvantage.

If you've got Elijah Serrat, Omar Cooper and and Charlie Becker or EJ Williams out there, those are all like guys that are 6 two plus Serrat's really well built, hard to bring down.

You know, that they they had some success against Oregon throughout the course of the game, really leveraging Serrat on the boundary and Nick's a lot of Cooper throws, which were really more behind the line of scrimmage.

It felt like or, or, or parallel to the line of scrimmage and then had him run and make plays in space.

They hadn't really started using Noakowski yet as a receiving threat at any volume at that stage.

And they've added that since then.

You know, for Indiana's passing attack to be successful, where do you think they concentrate their fire?

Yeah, I think Omar Cooper is is a huge matchup focus for the Ohio State defense because like you were saying, Galen, it really plays on the numbers too.

Omar Cooper, Heath, I think he averaged like 3 yards on on the average depth of target.

And and then, you know, he's a yak machine.

And so I think he's like top five nationally and and yards after catching on his wide receivers.

And so, yeah, I think Omar especially because Lorenzo Styles, their nickelback, he's a little, he's been a little inconsistent and they they've actually gone back and forth between Lorenzo Styles and somebody else.

And so if they, if they can get Omar Cooper on Lorenzo Styles, that would be a favorable match up.

And then, you know, if if they if they're doing a lot more, if they're doing a lot of three wide receiver sets, you know, that's, that you can put together a lot of really interesting past route combinations with with them.

And now that Riley and Wakowski's no Wakowski's involved.

And then if you have Roman, him be coming out of the backfield, like that's a lot to account for.

It's an Ohio State defense that can.

But yeah, I think Omar Cooper's kind of the key to it all because he can line up anywhere and he can make the he can, he can make a play anywhere and he can catch.

He he can be targeted deep downfield or like against Oregon, 3 yards downfield.

And then he's just so athletic and strong that he can, he can, he can make plays after after the catch and in ways that nobody else on the team can.

So I think, yeah, I think that's besides Riley Noakowski, of course, basically a full back of tight end.

Yep, let's switch gears.

Unless there is there anything else from the Indiana offense versus Ohio State defense matchup you think is worth mentioning before we switch sides?

Yeah.

I think one thing that I am concerned about, we already talked about the offensive line a bit.

One thing I am concerned about is guard play.

I'm just you know, that that was I don't know if that's just because I don't know if it's just carry over from last year's matchup where the guard play was really exploited by Jim Knowles.

Some really interesting blitz packages that that just he it seemed like he had like a whole like a whole playbook just for if the opposing offense has bad guards, you know, so like that.

That's that's something that I am concerned about.

Bray Lynch, you know, and then Drew Evans coming coming off of an injury or if or if he can, then Johnny I, I do have concerns there.

Yeah.

Well, and, and that's I think kind of part and parcel to some of the larger concerns in the running game, but it also effects pass protection as well.

And again, it's where I think we're going to find out pretty quick what Matt Patricia's planning on doing.

And the The thing is, I will say, like as as bad as that mismatch was last year and, and as hard as it was for Indiana to move the ball, once you got into that second quarter, a lot of that was kind of exacerbated by Curtis work not being able to move out of the way.

And you know that you you at least have Fernando Mendoza with some mobility where he can escape if he sees things starting to break down.

And I think you can scheme around that to some degree that you couldn't last year.

So that's the one thing where I'm like, yeah, I'm concerned about that too.

And, and I think we're going to find out real quick what Matt Patricia decides to keep from last year's game plan or if they decide to attack the same thing.

But I don't feel like Indiana's going to be as flat footed if that ends up being the case this year.

I'll say one more thing too, Galen RPOI think RPO is going to have a very interesting role in this in this game plan for Indiana's offense because you know, if they can't get the wrong game going and and they they can get something in the past game going and, you know, they can kind of blend the two together.

Like, you know, run, run RPO.

And when Indiana runs RPOI mean just generally Indiana runs RPO and throws out of RPO more than anybody else.

Like for the amount that they run RPO and the amount they throw out of it, nobody matches them.

And so if you know, if you can get something going in the passing game, make them respect the passing game and then use RPO, you can build a rushing game, you know, somewhat off of that.

So if if they do really struggle to get the ball going there, I think RPO could possibly be an answer.

Yeah, that.

I mean, one of the question marks is if you can't get the running game going, can you, does that destroy your RPO approach?

If you can get the passing game going, though, you might be able to backdoor your way into it, even if you're struggling with the running game initially.

And so that is going to be really a key to keep an eye on.

And yeah, I'm, I'm just really curious, does Indiana stay in this, you know, the, their normal 11 personnel set, Do they decide that?

I wish they came out and I see they came out in in was it 21 against Purdue?

Yeah.

And I was like, you and I have just talked about that.

And I was like, all right, are they just trying to put something else on tape or are they trying out something that they know they're gonna use the following week?

Yeah, they used, they started using 21 against Penn State.

They used especially in like short yardage situations, they brought in both Roman Himby and Kaylan Black or they, Yeah, both Roman Himby and Kaylan Black on, on a couple of short yardage plays.

Yeah, that, that was against Penn State, but yeah, it I, I didn't notice that against Purdue.

Actually, I didn't notice the 21 personnel against Purdue.

I'm pretty sure it was like the first, the first possession or the 1st 2 possessions and I was kind of taken back by it and then and then they went back to what they had been doing by the time they got the running game fully established.

But yeah, I don't know.

Anyway, on the flip side, so one of the things I've heard a lot about this Ohio State passing game is that they are they're really good against zone and Indiana runs more zone than pretty much anybody in the country.

So that what is how does Indiana approach that?

Because Indiana's entire defensive effectiveness is kind of based upon their front being able to get pressure with four and being able to use the linebackers however they see fit.

And then having that shell set up with the zone where they can handle most teams opponent.

You know, receivers.

But you've got 2 dynamite like NFL talent receivers on this roster and a quarterback that when he has enough time, can get it to them very easily.

So how concerned are you about that particular matchup of what Ohio State does well against versus what Indiana does?

Well, I'll say first, any team that holds off a pass rush like Ohio State has for Julian Sayin is going to throw it well against his own defense that, you know, if if you can allow your quarterback to kind of just sit back there and you know, the any, any quarterback that's not pressured much is going to be good against zone.

So, you know, Ohio State is very effective against cover 3 zone coverage, which is what Indiana runs just a ton of.

They run a ton of cover 3.

They're third in the country and how much cover three they run.

But Bill Land has told me that Ohio State has been facing a lot more too high coverage, which is like too high safeties and then force Ohio State to kind of chunk their way down field, which I think is contributing to some of this offense.

Lack of offensive explosion.

You were talking about Galen.

And I can see Indiana maybe getting into some of that because they do run.

Ohio State runs a lot of 12 personnel, which is 2 tight ends that require 3 linebackers and usually and you know that that would take the Rover off the field and you would have two high safeties or maybe not 2 high safeties, but two safeties and if they want to put it in.

Against Oregon primarily, too, was it not?

It was, but they also did it against Penn State and Iowa.

So any, any team that runs you know, a lot of 12 personnel is is more than likely not going to have a ton of cover 3 running against them.

Because to run cover 3IN modern college football, you need 3 safeties.

And so I mean, you could do one safety in two corners, but that's not really how Brian Haynes does it.

And so it would be, it'll be interesting to see that.

I think that's going to be whatever Brian Haynes schemes around that very question, which is do you try to get pressure on Julian saying first with no blitz, but then maybe with blitzing?

And then how do you pair that with your coverage scheme?

Which is it cover 3 or is it cover 2?

Like are you going to have a lot of Devin Boykin on the field or are you going to have a lot more like Isaiah Jones then?

So I, I, I think whatever he schemes around that question will, will be we'll, we'll decide this game because if you can't get pressure on Julian Sayin, there's there's no chance you like that's Jeremiah Smith, man, that you're not stopping Jeremiah Smith like that.

So you've got to get pressure on Julian Sayin and, you know, I, I think if there is a defensive front to do it, it's this Indiana team.

It's just, you know, I'm not sure exactly how they're going to go about doing it.

Yeah, I mean, what what made them so effective against Oregon, surprisingly so was was how well they got to the quarterback with just four man fronts or 4 + 1.

And you know, I, it, it seems unlikely that Ohio State's offensive line is going to struggle like that.

But as I think you act adequately point out, this is the best defensive line that Ohio State will have faced at least on paper all season.

And I doubt at least to start, regardless of what Ryan Day is saying in practice, that Ohio State's players are going there are their offensive line players are going to think Indiana's the best defensive line will play this year.

Like even if you even if you convince them of that, can you really convince a player that played Texas and played Michigan that the best defensive line that they'll play against all year is Indiana, the team that they manhandled the previous year, even though they didn't really manhandle them defensively or offensively because of how good the defense played for Indiana.

So I, I am interested to see how they react in that environment.

This, this feels like, you know, one of the things that's interesting is how I keep going back to the Oregon game because it feels like the closest analog from a physical perspective that Indiana's defence played.

Maybe Penn State, the Penn State ran a very more pedestrian offense by that point since they had a brand new quarterback in Grunkenmeyer.

But the way that they dealt with a mobile quarterback in in that game going up against Dante Moore, they took that part of his game out of the equation largely because of how they were using largely Aiden Fisher as a quarterback spy.

And you know, that's not really something that Julian saying adds to the picture.

Julian saying on the season has 31 attempts at rushing for 27 yards total.

That not a running threat by any means.

So it feels like you don't really have to have a quarterback spy in there, which means you have a little more freedom with that extra player since of course somebody is accounting for the quarterback at all times.

And you know, because you're otherwise you're either double covering or you're going single, you know, single coverage against certain skill players.

It's it feels like there might be more blitzing just because you don't have to account for the running game with the quarterback here.

And that that might be an advantage Indiana could exploit if they're clever about how they bring it and if they're able to disguise it effectively.

Yeah, something that I, something that I'm kind of watching for Galen is, is like you were saying, if, if they're going to blitz, you know, Elijah Hardy has like quietly been the second best pass rushing linebacker in the Big 10 behind Arville Reece.

Just like, like it's, it's wild.

Like looking at the numbers, I don't have them here right in front of me, but they'll be in the BSB tonight.

Like he is, he's #2 in the PAT and PFS pass rush production metric.

And, and he, you know, he doesn't rush a ton, but when he does, he gets there, which is the idea of that metric.

And you know, and then you have Isaiah Jones as well.

So I'm, I'm really curious to see if Brian hands goes back to the way that he was using Isaiah Jones when the season was kind of starting.

Do you remember that when, when Isaiah Jones was seeing kind of he, he was on the field sparingly, but when he was on the field, he was always in the backfield.

And, you know, I don't know if that's just because the opponents they were playing or maybe just because he was somewhat unknown at the time, but, or maybe it was just, you know, thanks to scheme.

I I'm, I'm not sure, but he was always in the backfield.

I could see like you were just saying, if, you know, if you don't have to account for Julian saying running the ball very much, you know, how much does that open for you to get back to something like that?

Because they have played a lot of quarterbacks that can't run.

And so, you know, I, I think they kind of pulls back some of what you can do in terms of rushing the passer.

But that's, I think those two linebackers, not so much Aiden Fisher, although he's been effective rushing, rushing the passer too, but mostly Elijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones.

Like how did they get into the backfield?

And I'll be really curious to see that.

Yeah, I'm, I'm really fascinated by that as well.

I just, I can't get over these numbers.

Just just the it's strength on strength, like just in almost every one of these matchups, I mean, yeah, even third down success for each offense is countered by amongst the best in the country at third down success on defense.

It's you really have to parse it to try to find something that you can really latch onto.

I mean even.

One thing I'll say.

Yeah, go ahead.

One thing I'll say Galen is, is Ohio State's defense has not forced many turnovers.

They like very few turnovers relative to the rest of the nation.

And so that's that's something that I find really interesting.

Just, you know, they just don't cause a lot of havoc And, and, but they're just so the way that Bill Landis put it was like they're so structurally sound, which I thought was a good way to describe that type of a defense, which is they can cover so much ground, but they're not necessarily going to attack in a way that's going to force you to make a bunch of mistakes.

It's more like they're just covering ground and limiting the, the, the, the space that you're gaining.

And I'd, you know, I just find that really fascinating because, you know, Ohio State defenses just historically have just been very much attacking.

So I I just find, you know, Matt Patricia has been fantastic this year and there's a reason that he's a semi finalist for the Broyals award.

And so, you know, just because they don't force a lot of turnovers, you know, just because they don't attack the defensive front doesn't mean this is not a very dangerous defense.

But I just find that profile to be so interesting.

They're both in the top 15 in the country.

Both defenses in punts forced per game.

Indiana has forced 5 1/2 punts per game.

Ohio State's forced 5.3 punts per game.

That stats you're not going to get anywhere else, folks.

Yeah, I know it's it's wild.

And what's what's made Indiana's defense so effective is not only have they forced that many punts, but they forced 24 turnovers so far this season.

And I do think it's funny 'cause like you could say, well, Ohio State's not going to turn the ball over because they haven't really turned the ball over.

But you know, the 1st Dr.

against Michigan, they turned the ball over.

So it's certainly doable if you know what you're doing and you can, you can force Ohio State into some comfortable situations, but it's, it's hard to force them into uncomfortable situations.

And so.

I think people forget too, that last year during that drought that I was talking about earlier, a 30 minute drought, they've, they, they forced, I believe it was, it, was it a fumble?

And then they also forced the turnover on downs like they they forced 2 turnovers on Ohio State.

And the our own version of Recite the drives here is sponsored by Jeremy Barbuto of Iron Horn Enterprises.

You look at that second quarter, yeah, Ohio State at a 15 play, 73 yard drive that ate up half the quarter, that really ate up half the first quarter and half the second quarter.

But they turned it over on downs.

Ohio State scored a touchdown on the next one, but then threw an interception.

You know, and, and I mean Indiana, they even in the second-half when Ohio State was supposedly dominating, they forced a punt on a three and out and they forced a field goal.

You know, so it wasn't like just this overwhelming tidal wave of things.

It's going to be, it'll be interesting to see how can Indiana get, they really needed like two or three more drives where they held them to either a field goal or forced to punt.

And we're going to find out I think pretty quickly how effective Indiana is going to be at forcing Ohio State into those positions.

Couple of things before we wrap up, a couple of intangible items.

They're not intangibles.

I shouldn't say intangibles, but there are other factors.

Special teams, you know, it's interesting because Ohio State special teams are, are bottom half of college football, you know, not by much.

They're kind of just barely in the bottom half.

But Indiana has had really good special teams for most of the season.

You know, Indiana's got the kicker of the year in the Big 10 as Nico Radicich ends up picking that award up because he was, he didn't have a lot of distance, relatively speaking.

He's not booming kicks like the Michigan kicker, but he was really damn accurate and we didn't really see Ohio State's kicker have to do much this year.

The other thing that I'm really fascinated by is does Indiana get Brendan Franke back in this game?

Because if you could take kick returns out of the equation, that would be a nice piece to not have to worry about if you're Indiana.

Yep.

And if you get in a situation where you have a a long field goal, you know, he brings that part of the the game too.

Like Nicaragus.

Yeah, he doesn't have it's on the distance, but you know, Frankie does.

So yeah.

That'll be very interesting.

Third field goals in that Oregon game.

Only one of them counted, but he hit two of them.

Yeah, right, right if.

You recall that, But yeah, you know, look at Ohio State.

I mean, Jayden Fielding over the course of the year, you know, his, he just didn't really do much, you know, he.

He's his long field goal of the year was, I can't even tell with this chart, but he was 15 to 17, which is fine.

And I'd have to go and look at the individual game logs to see what he did.

But you know, special teams is something Indiana's done very well all year.

And Grant Kane and, and that group have done an excellent job.

You know, I think it'd be fascinating.

Jonathan Brady, we, we heard from early, he's had a couple of good returns.

You know, Indiana's going to have to limit whatever damage happens when they punt the ball.

But can you know, Brady's the type of player that can get you some yards if you can get him into a position and block him effectively to to, you know, catch and be able to run?

Yeah.

I mean, early on there Galen, like special teams plays were kind of the difference through not the difference, but kind of a catalyst in some of these games that that Indiana was playing.

They were blocking punts that we haven't really seen that a lot from them, you know, in the back half of the season.

But it's I mean, it's still there.

And so that that'll be that'll be interesting to see like how how special teams plays out.

I I agree, especially the punk game.

Yeah, so you know, a lot of a lot of things that will be interesting.

I mean, you know, Ohio State's punter Joe McGuire, 21 punts on the season, which feels like a really small number over a 12 game season, only 21 punts, a 41.52 yards per punt average.

Obviously for Indiana, you know, Mitch McCarthy's only had 24 punts and he's at about a 40.3 yard average.

So about the same there.

Obviously, you know, you don't want to think punts are going or punting is going to be that big of a deal.

And yet that was really that created the decisive distance in the score in the first game that these two played last year.

Yeah, no.

And, and also, you know, when it comes to like yards per pun, it like if you're attempting a lot of your, your punts from, you know, pretty far downfield because your offense is good, that, that always prevents that number from getting higher.

It's really hard to judge punters by numbers that I suppose like, you know, inside the 20s is always a good measure for, for good offenses, but it's kind of depends on who your offense is.

So I, I, yeah, the punters, the, the, the punters.

Ohio State usually has good punting.

I am not on top of Ohio State punting at the moment, but I'll I'm going to look into it before I release the Bison tonight.

We had to, I mean we had to, we had to hit something here at the, it is interesting.

I will say Ohio State punted 6 times against Texas.

They punted 4 times against Illinois.

They didn't have another game where they punted more than twice.

So when you think about again and again, I mean it was a very different team when they played Texas.

They had a, a, a freshman quarterback in his first game and didn't really have a running game going.

And they fixed a lot of that, you know, but, but it is interesting and, and I'm, I've always the game that keeps sticking out to me with this Ohio State team.

And I probably should just go back and watch it tomorrow if I have time.

Is that Illinois game, 'cause that is the one oddball statistical game that they had where I think they had the lowest host game win percentage of any of the games they played this year in that game.

Because Ohio or Illinois kind of shot themselves in the foot a bunch in that game.

And I still think Ohio State was likely going to win that game, but it wasn't the success fest that Ohio State has had in a lot of the other games that they played.

Yeah, no, that's a good point.

I think Illinois had like 3 turnovers in that game.

And yeah, that was, that was tough.

But yeah, that's, that's, that's a good point.

And you know, I, I will say there's something I wanted to add to before we before we wrap up, which is Ohio State's red zone, like offensive red zone performance has been a little shaky this year.

I heard a lot of it was due to like Brian Hartline's like play calling was a little questionable at times, but that's where Julian Sayan has seen like his least success in the field.

So, you know, he doesn't run the ball, which is not super helpful from a quarterback in terms of like red zone.

But also their offensive line has kind of been a work in progress as the year has gone on.

Their offensive line's coming off their best performance against Michigan.

So there's a lot of confidence in the offensive line right now.

But you know, Indiana is one of the best defensive red zone teams in the country.

And so, you know, there's, there's a lot there.

I mean, there, there's a lot that that an offense has to deal with in in very limited space.

So, you know, even if Indiana might, you know, give up some something in that conversion rates or give us some yardage, if they get down into the red zone, I think that's going to be one of the most important factors of the game is how how do these two teams defend the red zone?

Because, you know, if Ohio State isn't super efficient down there, then that might be, you know, really significant for Indiana.

If you can limit them to field goals.

I think that's that's something that could go a long way.

I'm looking at that Illinois box right now.

I mean Illinois 3 turnovers, Ohio State had none.

Illinois 4047 rushing yards on 27 carries.

They had a 1.7 yard per carry average, but they out gained Ohio State in this game 295 to 272.

And you know they they out passed them 248 to 166 and had almost the exact yards per pass average that Ohio State did.

They were 5.6 to 6.1.

Something tells me that a lot has been dug into on that game film.

You know, because one of the things we know about Illinois is their offensive line sucks.

And if I was Luke Altmeyer, I would have filed an OSHA complaint by this point in the season.

But they they did have the weapons that were similar to Indiana offensively.

I'm that I I need to go back and watch that game.

I forget where I was that week.

What it what what week was that even that week was that was there.

It was the 6th game for Ohio State and I can't even tell what week that was.

This is how this is how off I am in OH here.

It was the week of the 11th, so I think that was the week Indiana was playing Oregon, which would explain why I didn't get a chance to watch that game.

Yeah, that's that is interesting because you know, that might kind of be close to the formula that Indiana has to use to to attack this Ohio State defense is a lot of past production if they can't get anything going on the ground now Indiana is I think is a bit more efficient in terms of RPO.

So I think that could help.

But like, you know, I I was looking at opposing quarterback experience that Ohio State has played because they have not played like experienced quarterbacks this season.

They've played two experienced quarterbacks this season.

They were eighth in Kalikmanis at Rutgers, which that was a disaster that I feel bad for that guy.

And then, you know, his experience couldn't really do a lot for him in that game.

And but then Luke Altmeyer was was the other one.

And after that, there's like a huge chasm.

And Fernando Mendoza has the second most career drop backs amongst opposing quarterbacks in the Power 4 amongst Power 4 opponents which that he's played.

This year, yeah, that's wild thing about that he's and but it doesn't it does contribute to what we'll finish on, which is like ultimately, look, we.

I think you can acknowledge that there are some physical mismatches.

You can acknowledge that we've seen these two teams go up against each other before and Ohio State was superior, but it's a different Indiana team and it is a.

This is the best team they will have played this year.

And as much as Ohio State has been incredibly impressive statistically, I think it would be a mistake to say that it's a foregone conclusion that they'll just be statistically superior against everybody.

You know, it, it's a it's really a situation where you have to look at, well, this is this feels not too far off from what happened when Ohio State got to the, you know, the, the the semi final and final round of the College Football Playoff last year where, you know, I mean, they, they didn't blow out Texas.

They I mean, they won by two scores.

They didn't blow out Notre Dame.

They won by two scores.

But those were those were games that were, those were teams that were more on a level with each other and that bore out statistically before the game started.

Indiana's got some things in the bag.

And I and I think they're they've known for a while that if they made it to this point, they, this was the team they were going to play.

I think there's a real good chance they're going to be up for the challenge.

It's not just a matter of Ohio State comes in and says, well, we're here and we've won the game.

I think Ohio State realizes that too.

I heard from someone, it's like days talking about this team very differently than he's talked about any other team so far this season.

And, and you know, that might just be press conference theater, but it may not be.

It's, I mean, the number of times I've heard Urban Meyer say on Big Noon kick off that this is the best coach team that he's seen in years between last year and this year.

Like if you have Urban Meyer saying that, that's, that's notable.

You know, like, say what you want about Urban Meyer, but I mean, a guy I know it was football, you know, So like I, I, yeah, when when he is like losing his mind over Fernando Mendoza and the way that he and, and his cerebral acumen and, and then, you know, talking about cursing Nettie and the assistants, the way that he has even like he broke down Grant Kane's like scheme.

Like how did the DeAngelo Pollen's broken punt or block punt happen like that?

They like Irving Meyer can't get enough of Indiana football.

And I think that has, you know, I think, I think that, you know, carries through like I, I, I know that Ryan Day and Irving Meyer talk, you know, so like, I wouldn't surprise me if, if this is if this is something that Ryan Day is taking seriously, I'll say.

Yeah, I would hope so.

I hope everybody takes it seriously.

I hope that's the thing.

I just, I'm, I'm just excited this game is happening the way that it's happening that we get this match up on this stage.

Whatever happens in this game, it's not the end of the season for either of these teams.

And yet this will be a statement for whoever wins it.

If it's Ohio State, I think it just demonstrates that they are the alpha.

This is going to be a team that will be the the clear, clear favorite.

Not just the odds on favorite they are now, but the clear favorite to win the national title.

And if it's Indiana, it kind of hits the reset button on the expectations of what might happen in the College Football Playoff.

Yep, absolutely.

Anyway, Taylor, I've taken up way too much of your time, but it's been a joy.

Thank you again for everything and thank you for your in depth statistical knowledge and analysis.

It's it's always a joy to get your thoughts on things.

Yeah, no, thanks for having me Galen, I appreciate it Yeah, like I said last traditional BSB preview, I'll be doing some free things around the, you know, playoff, but yeah, yeah, it'll be this is the the last big one it'll be free.

So if you, if you do read it, though, we're recording this on Thursday, so I'm releasing it Thursday night.

It'll be free.

So if if you if you want to to to read the BSP preview for this Big 10 championship, you'll be available.

You can't ask for anything better than that, folks.

Go to bitesizedbison.substack.com.

Go check out the site.

Go check out what Taylor writes.

You will not be, you will be by far the best informed fan in the stands or at home or or at the bar or wherever you are after reading this.

So Taylor is always a pleasure.

Thank you so much, my friend.

And thanks to all you folks for listening in to Crimson Cast.

As this wraps up our preview pods.

We got no more coming after this, but join us at the Tap

11

11:30 to 1:00 on Mass Ave.

in downtown Indy.

Join us at Brothers 5

Join us at Brothers 5:00 to 6:00 in downtown Indy and join me at either Gainbridge or Lucas Oil Stadium.

For everybody here at the Back home Network, I'm Galen Klavy.

We'll catch you folks.

On the flip side, stay never daunted for everybody.

Never lose your place, on any device

Create a free account to sync, back up, and get personal recommendations.