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Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1

Pushkin, Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.

I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate.

Speaker 2

Silver today on the show.

I mean, we have we have some news.

Speaker 3

It's not news that you'll be doing cartwheel Silver if you're a loyal fan of this show, but yeah, this is the last.

Speaker 2

Episode of Risky Business.

That's the news.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's the news.

We have absolutely loved the last few years with you guys and Pushkin and iHeart and we hope you've enjoyed it as well.

And we are you know, we're both really excited to see what comes next.

You know where to follow us.

We're both very easy to reach.

We both have substacks the Leap for me and Silver Atend for Nate, where you can share feedback about Risky Business, but also where we will be making future announcements about where we head to next.

So if you've been a loyal listener, we hope you will follow us along on the next stage of our journey.

And you know, we'd love to Nate.

I think before we get into the show for this final week, which will include a look back at some of the predictions that we made last year.

This time last year and some predictions for twenty twenty six.

I think we owe it to ourselves to kind of look back at two years of Risky Business and what we've kind of accomplished here, because I think it's pretty cool that we've been able to do this podcast for two years together.

Yeah.

Speaker 3

No, Look, I think we are trying to carve out a niche that's becoming more and more relevant in the world, right from like sportscambling scandals.

Speaker 2

You know, prediction markets act that.

Like, you know, it feels more and more like we're in a world where if you kind of like sit idly by, then you you lose around.

Speaker 3

It feels more and more like I mean, my opinions about a progress of waxed and waned over the show.

We talk about it a lot, but you know, feeling like we're marching into a certain future and if you are in mid career and have had some success, just like maybe not a feeling of profound security necessarily, right, We're moving into a world where people are maybe.

Speaker 2

Becoming stupider important ways, Like I.

Speaker 1

Wasn't sure where that I wasn't sure where that sentence was gonna go.

Speaker 2

No, I mean, I think I think.

Speaker 4

I'm very worried about and the boomers and the boomers getting addicted their fucking sub sacks and ship like that, and like, I don't know, Maria, I don't know.

Speaker 2

You know, I think they're more self righteous.

Speaker 3

I mean they used to be adicted to Facebook, which was stupid, but like sub second is kind of partisan, and so I mean, anyway, you know, the poker world's been a little weird.

Speaker 2

You want to talk a little poker, Maria, Sure you so.

Speaker 3

I am supposed to be full disclosure, audience.

It's an episode is airing in January.

We're taping it in late December before Christmas.

I in fact was supposed to be taping this from so called Paradise.

Speaker 1

Nate, tell the audience how you really feel about the WSP Paradise stuff.

Speaker 2

I attended.

Speaker 3

The World Series of Poker Paradise in Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island, which is a sub island of New Providence in the Bahamas, and I think I had probably the worst.

Speaker 2

Time that I've had at like a.

Speaker 3

Poker festival, as they're officially called.

These poker receivers are officially called festivals.

Right, Like, nothing bad happened, right, I got a couple of nights nights out with a friend who was having his birthday.

I met some fun people at the tables, ranging from NBA legend Tony Parker to barstool Nate any other Nate.

Speaker 2

I'm usually a fan.

I'm playing against Wright, but number one.

Speaker 3

Like I, I just.

Speaker 2

Felt really confined in this giant resort.

Speaker 3

And furthermore, like there's been a clash between the World Poker Tour and the World Series of Poker for the slot in mid December.

Speaker 1

And Poker Stars there's ept problem.

Speaker 2

And Poker Stars is an ebt and in product.

Speaker 3

Basically, mid December is a really good slot for a poker tournament because like, you have to be fucking insane to travel in between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and poker players are insane, and so we'll, you know, it's a cheap time of year actually to travel.

So the World Poker Tour spun what had once been a relatively sleepy I think it was called five Diamond Classic at the Bellagio.

The Wind began hosting a slot instead put a big guarantee out in twenty twenty two, I think it was fifteen million dollarslew that away people really love that series, right, I mean an even bigger guarantee forty million dollars in twenty twenty three.

And then the World Serio tooker keeam and said, well, we're.

Speaker 2

Doing our thing in.

Speaker 3

The Atlantis.

Whin did not hit its guarantee had to pay some money out of the wind coffers.

And then after that World Seriece Houcker's are, well, fuck you, we'll guarantee you fifty million dollars in the Bahamas last year, and then.

Speaker 2

Sixty million dollars.

Speaker 3

Except this is a twenty five K actually twenty six K tournament and not a ten K, and you can, like you can enter the tournament very very often.

Speaker 1

Yeah, some people were in for thirteen fourteen fifteen bullets.

There were a lot of re entries.

Now think about what that means twenty six thousand dollars times fifteen sixteen bullets, Like these are expensive tournaments.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I know, there were what they were like twenty one hundred entries, but they were from like one thousand ish unique participants, right, so the average person entered almost three times, so it was really a seventy eight K for them and not a twenty six K, which is builds a twenty five k, right, The tables I played were despite that pretty good.

I booked originally seven nights in the Bahamas.

Some were covered by casino points, and why not shortening that, But like you know, all the seven nights I was scheduled there, I probably played, let me think, eighteen actual hours of actual poker, when if there have been a better schedule, it had.

Speaker 2

The capacity to play fifty hours.

Speaker 1

Right, yeah, which is why n I went to the WBT hat the win where the schedule is wonderful.

The win is one of the best places in the world to play poker.

Staff is a plus.

I love the one.

Once again, this is the end of December.

You'll be hearing this in early January, so my series is not over yet, so I have no idea how it's going to go.

But even if I end up losing a shit ton of money, which actually isn't possible at this point, but even if I lose more money than I want to, I will be quite happy because this is a great time of year in Vegas, and I'm happy to be here in ept.

Prog by the way, is also amazing.

I've been there many times.

I didn't go this year because it's far and it's cold, and Vegas is warm and close.

Speaker 2

So that was my that's got to Prague, right, and you could have gone to pragu.

Speaker 1

And it would have been a lot better.

It would have been a lot better.

Speaker 3

And then you bust out, is there a EPT Paris this year?

Speaker 1

There is an APT Paris this year?

I will be there.

So yeah, risky business listeners February Paris.

Speaker 2

So you there, But in Paris you bust that.

You're like, I'm almost fucking happy about that.

Right, it's going to go.

Speaker 1

We had.

Speaker 3

Right, you know, I mean that you know great that you almost one of us, but you know, the baas is in this like basically compound.

Speaker 1

Yeah, this stopped.

This stop was not paradise, is what I'm hearing from you.

And we hope, at least, I sincerely hope that poker will go more in the direction of what Poker Stars and WT are doing and less in the Paradise direction, and that w s P.

I think a lot of people did not have a great experience this yere and I do want to remind everyone listening that at the end of the day, poker is a game.

If you're not having fun, why are you even doing it?

So when something isn't fun, just get the fuck out of there.

So let's let's just uh talk about now are let's go into predictions.

So we we made some predictions last year, so exactly a year ago, give or take a few days, we made predictions for how twenty twenty five was going to go.

Nate, I didn't remember almost any of this.

It's so funny, Like I didn't remember what predictions we made.

I didn't remember how we were talking about this.

So it's fun It was a very different, uh, very different time, right, And it's also very funny to see kind of what topics seemed relevant, right, Like seemed like they were going to be the big stories of the year, and it turned out the year was very different from what we had what we had thought.

So we don't have to go through every single prediction that we made, but we made we made some interesting ones.

So first prediction we made, which I think is actually kind of funny, is we were both predicting the highs and lows of bitcoin, and Nate, you said it was going to be a one forty high.

I said one eighty, and then our lows were sixty and seventy.

We were so wrong, right, Like, our highs were are way too high.

You were closer, You were closer.

Speaker 2

I'm close.

That's good.

Speaker 1

You were closer.

Yeah, don't yeah, don't throw.

Speaker 3

Me under This is a good group project.

I did my part of the project.

Well, Marie, don't throw me under the bus.

Speaker 1

No, all I met was that our lows were too low and our highs were too high.

Speaker 2

Okay, well, look at the history of bit coin.

Speaker 1

Is I was closer on the low because the low was seventy eight point five and my low was seventy.

So come on, we both got this happened half.

We were correct though, on Trump nominees that how many would be rejected or withdraw we said zero, and it was in fact zero.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so both predicted two press secretaries in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2

There's a limit one.

Speaker 3

Caroline Levett has kept that job at least through the late December day in which we're taking this.

Speaker 2

You know, we go yeah tomorrow.

Speaker 1

And you were correct that there was going to be a national emergency to begin mass deportations.

I said no, and you said yes.

I actually, according to the producer's my exact language is probably yes.

But I'm going to say no because I don't want him to.

My wishful thinking did it work?

So I tried to manifest it.

It did not manifest.

There was, indeed, a national emergency at the border declared.

Musk did not become the first trillionaire.

We both got that right.

Speaker 3

It can close six seventy seven billion as of December fifteenth estimates Forbes.

Speaker 1

Yes, pretty close, pretty close.

Speaker 2

But no, well, you know, you know it shove me a three hundred billion.

Speaker 1

Anything above five hundred we round up to a trillion.

Is that the way it works?

Speaker 2

Sixth seedment.

Speaker 1

We can't.

We can't do our tournament winnings, at least I can't because we're still we're taking this in the middle of a series format.

Speaker 3

I predicted negative ten thousands for myself, it will be this fucking that was within the realm of accurate before this fucking Bahamas debacle.

And I'm done for the year.

So yeah, at least I was directly correct.

It would be a negative year in tournament.

Speaker 2

Poker, all right.

Speaker 1

I have not done my calculation for the year yet, so I cannot answer.

My estimate was that I was going to be up forty five thousand dollars.

I'll report back when I can.

Oh, this was.

Speaker 2

Good, Nate, you got a good bet.

Ten thousand dollars.

Speaker 3

You get bet any line in sports, what would you bet that?

Okay, I'm most say Shane Alexander would win the MVP Award, which he did.

I think it was a little bit of a contrarian take back in January probably a.

Speaker 1

Probably, John, did you actually put money on it?

Speaker 2

I've had money in the OKAC thunder a fair bit.

Actually.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Good.

And this is hilarious because I'm obviously the one who awarded the second annual Daniel Kneman Memorial Cognitive Bias of the Year Award, and I had predicted that it was going to be the recency effect, and that is indeed what I chose, which is funny.

I guess my brain was the same way, but I totally forgot that this was my prediction, and so this was not a self fulfilling prophecy.

We cared about TikTok.

We don't really care about it anymore.

Speaker 3

Funny, what's gonna happen to ticktach?

I thought it would get banned and you didn't.

And it didn't get banned because Trump, Yes, cynical.

Speaker 2

I don't know.

Speaker 1

Yeah, So we both did a long shot bet for twenty twenty five, and Nate yours was about drones.

Speaker 2

Remember those drones were in New Jersey.

Speaker 3

One of three chants that later reporting would say there had been something.

Speaker 2

Something we all there and I guess, sir, I guess.

Speaker 3

I don't think that's happened.

I don't think there's been much reporting on anything apart from no.

Yeah, okay, so you know, but your launchots are supposed to lose most of the time, right, you call with pocket force.

You're not going to flop a set all that often.

Speaker 1

No, that's very true.

My lawn shot was that twenty twenty five will be the year that we see a nuclear power resurgence.

Countries that had brought the plants offline, we'll bring them back online.

We'll see the first nuclear power plants open because of increased energy needs due to AI.

I was kind of right.

So this is starting to happen.

It's a lot of the plants are on track, and we see a lot of nuclear plant opening scheduled for twenty twenty six.

So I was directionally correct, but it hasn't happened yet.

The process has started, but the plants are not actually open yet.

So yeah, but mine was I think less of a long shot than yours.

Speaker 3

Yeah, a little, a little little, a little safe there, Maria.

Speaker 1

But you know what, back a year ago, I think people were people including you, did not think that nuclear power was going to be as big as as it's now becoming.

So it was still somewhat contrarian.

Speaker 3

And we'll be right back after this break.

Speaker 1

All right, let's go to twenty twenty six, and let's talk about some predictions for twenty twenty six.

So, Nate, where do you want to start.

Do you want to talk about some politics predictions?

Do you want to talk about sports?

Ai, what's what's on your mind?

We've got some predictions in all these different categories.

Speaker 2

I guess politics.

Speaker 1

All right, let's start with politics.

Speaker 2

We're going to an election year.

Speaker 3

We are, indeed, so if you're hearing this, probably twenty six.

Welcome your election year.

It never set exactly.

Speaker 1

Welcome to an election year.

Yeah, it seems like it's been one giant election year.

Nate.

I am going to seed the political prediction ground to you because all I know is what I read in the news.

I don't have any insider models.

Insider info you do, I mean, this is what you do.

You build these models.

Speaker 2

I don't have inside because I think insider info makes you.

Speaker 1

Stupider well not insider info, but you have the models that can actually process this information in a more data.

Speaker 3

We're still a few months from the models being turned back on.

But look, I think Democrats are pretty heavy favorites to take the House in the neighborhood of.

Speaker 2

Eighty five percent.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I was going to say the same thing that I do.

Think they're going to retake the House.

Are we gonna What do we think about the Senate?

Speaker 3

I think the Senate is plausible for Democrats, but like but like, but not like, I mean, what do they have to win?

Speaker 2

They have to win four seats.

Speaker 3

And so there are two that in principle are quote unquote easy, which are main in North Carolina.

In North Carolina, Cooper, the former governor, is running.

Speaker 2

It's a swing state.

Speaker 3

So you think the formula would be no incumbent, strong Democratic candidate usually in midterms, the environment and you can look at like the generic ballot or Trump's pool ratings usually as Democratics.

So like, mathematically that should favor Democrats in you know, Susan Collins has survived difficult electoral environments before war.

Democrats are having a big fight in their primary between Graham Platner the the populist oyster fishermen who, unfortunately, unfortunately this happens to the best of us, unfortunately got a tattoo that some people might argue resembles a symbol used by a division, a Nazi Panzer division.

Speaker 2

The Nazis, of course, were a group of Germans during World War Two who didn't preicre like Jews or any other people who weren't Rian.

But you know, look it happens.

Look, you know, look, I mean, what can you say?

It happens.

He was a little drunk in Croatia.

Speaker 3

You know, it's like, look at this fucking Bahamas tournament, right, you know, I was bored enough.

It's like fucking fire.

Another bullet was twenty five k go get like a tattoo.

If those are the choices, I might have wound up with a tattoo myself.

Speaker 2

Maria, Well, we're.

Speaker 1

We're glad that there was a third option.

Yeah, all right, so we've got we've got a likely house retake, less likely.

Speaker 3

At the at pollm markets when we're taping this.

It's seventy eight in the House for Democrats.

Speaker 2

I think that's low.

I would take the over on that.

Speaker 3

In the Senate it's thirty five percent for Democrats.

That seemed roughly reasonable to me.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that that makes sense.

Thirty five percent is not zero, but it's.

Speaker 2

A long way from zero.

It's it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's it's the cherry.

Yeah, it's it's very it's very plausible.

So what would how about uh, egg prices, that's very that's funny political we can have.

Speaker 2

I don't know it.

Our producers suggested it.

I look, I don't.

I don't.

I don't know.

Speaker 3

I don't really eat the many eggs, not really go shotting for eggs.

I'm probably the wrong person to ask about this.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, well, it depends obviously on diseases and all sorts of things.

Let's say the highest egg prices in twenty twenty six will be twelve dollars for a dozen eggs.

I have no idea it's going to be my prediction.

I'll say that's a dollar an egg, Nate, That's that's all.

Speaker 2

I'll say.

Eleven nine is the person is right?

Shit, I love it.

I love gts this is GTO.

Speaker 1

Yeah, this is this is the GTO.

So we're going to give you a GTO lesson on the prices.

Right, do you're the over under when you see people on that game who actually don't know how to play, right, and someone already guesses a number, and what are you supposed to guess after that night?

Speaker 2

You're supposed to guess a dollar under?

Yeah?

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, you just do not want to be the person who if you can't go over.

Yeah, it's it's a it's a it's an interesting game theoretical lesson in all of these games.

I don't watch quiz show games, but they all have game theory that you should study if you're ever going to be on one of them.

Do you think anyone's going to be prosecuted with regards to the Epstein files, I actually do not.

I think that this is oh maybe a Democrat, but this has to be a prosecution that actually goes forward.

Yeah, I don't know.

I mean, the.

Speaker 2

GP eventually did sign a dispatch petition.

I mean, people are.

Speaker 3

I guess I'd say prosecuted by who?

By the federal government?

Right, I guess No.

Speaker 2

I think it's just too messy for Trump to like actually, like.

Speaker 3

It's a little too cavalier for for him to like target a Democrat.

I mean I don't know, Yeah, I just think it feels like then you're encouraging people to discuss that story, which I think the White House does not want to do.

Speaker 2

Right.

Yeah, I think.

Speaker 1

That that's correct.

That's why I think now sports, well, which league, Nate, we'll have a major gambling scandal next?

I mean, are we allowed to say that, like they'll also be repeats because I think that the you know, or do we have to pick a league that hasn't had a gambling scandal because I feel like at this point, like, man, we're going to see these everywhere.

Speaker 2

Oh.

I think college sports are are.

Speaker 3

Right for because they're like some of these students are now making money with nil deals, but like they're you know, there have valuable information that there's a lot of volume in college football college basketball betting.

Right, these kids are not professionals, they could use some income and like ye, yeah, I mean that seems to me almost statistically and there are more teams than in the pros.

Yeah, it seems to be almost like statistically inevitable at some point.

Speaker 1

Oh, absolutely, absolutely, whenever you have such a misalignment of incentives right where you can make a lot more money than you're making from from something that might be a little bit not as above board as one would hope.

There's going to be there's going to be a scandal.

We see that in professional sports where athletes are underpaid.

It's why there's so much cheating in tennis, for instance, because in tennis, you know, the top of the profession is paid very well, but there's so many players, right who are not that who are not that well compensated.

And tennis is expensive.

You have to travel, you have to do you know, there are lots and lots of expenses for this, and unless you're at the very top, you're just not going to make a lot of money.

And so people are incentivized to, you know, to cheat.

They can because if you're playing singles, especially like, it's so easy, right, you can actually throw matches, like, you can manipulate serves, you can do so many different things to get money.

And if you're being paid nothing, but the prediction markets and the betting markets and the sports betting markets are so high, right, and there's so much potential volume, there so much money there.

Then you have this misalignment that is going to cause scandals, and so that's very very true in the college arena as well.

So, Nate, I think, I think that's a good, good prediction, and I'm actually surprised that we haven't had a huge one yet, But I think that that's probably because the rules have only started to shift now and a lot of these betting opportunities didn't exist before.

Speaker 3

Yeah, let's remember if to the except there are these scandals, the leagues aren't thrilled to have them come up, right, So you don't know what's kind of going on and being handled with quiet suspensions below the radar and things like that.

But like it's hard to imagine that and given what you've seen in the NBA, and college has traditionally been kind of a source of point shaving, dating back to like the Boston College scandal of the seventies.

Speaker 1

So, yeah, do you have any other sports ones that you want to talk about other than let's give you ten thousand dollars again?

Speaker 3

I mean, look, I think I think the OKAC Thunder are once again a good season long bet.

Speaker 4

Right.

Speaker 2

They have started out their season.

Speaker 3

I think they're twenty four and two, have the best point differentiate in basketball history, beating the record from last year.

Have done this with various injuries because they like, you know, if you divide that team in half, they would both be top four playoff seeds in the West.

And like, it just seems like it's never easy money in the NBA.

Their half court offense is merely good.

That becomes more important the place postseason.

But like, but yeah, I know this seems like a a I know it's not easy money, but like, I think they're above fifty percent to win the championship, is my view.

Speaker 1

So that's what you would bet your ten thousand dollars on.

Speaker 3

Well, I mean, look, it would depend on Yeah, I think I think they'd be a good use of I don't know what the odds are, actually, I should look that up.

It's about fifty to fifty in the betting markets, right.

Speaker 1

Okay, so it is a good So it would be a good use of your money, right if it's fifty to fifty.

Yeah, and you have a strong conviction one way.

All right, let's do it.

We'll be back right after this.

All right, let's let's move on to AI, which is something I actually know more about than sports.

Over under on Sora manifesting a major news event.

So Sorah makes a video which is a fake AI video, and then the shit that's in the video actually happens.

I mean, I think that there's a decent chance of that.

Speaker 2

How is this defined?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I guess we get to define it, right, this is our prediction.

So defining there's something, well, first major news event, right, so it can't be something minor like oh, there's going to be a protest on you know, Madison Avenue.

Okay, fine, like that.

That's not that that's not a major news event, but something like, you know, there's going to be I don't know, military coup.

Well, that would definitely be a major news event.

But let's let's hope Sory doesn't manifest anything.

Speaker 2

I wonder have you seen.

Speaker 3

These AI generated clips of where a fat person carries a boulder onto a glass bridge right or into like an infinity pool and then like jump on it to destabilize the bridge and cause everyone to fall down into the canyon of the river or whatever.

Have you seen these?

Speaker 1

I have not seen these.

NT.

Speaker 2

I don't know what you're talking about.

Speaker 3

I know what makes you seem crazy, but it's a genre of these videos, right, you know, so.

Speaker 2

I guess I'm like, will there actually be copycats?

Speaker 1

Are you seeing a therapist?

Do we need to talk about this?

Speaker 2

This is a real thing, I mean, a real effect thing.

What I'm saying is like, it's interesting.

Speaker 3

This is like one of the first thing is kind of like emerge out of the randomness of AI models, right and become kind of viral.

I believe you have you maybe you're not star have time on on on X the everything platform, what does Helene call it?

Speaker 1

That is most certainly true.

Speaker 3

I would, you know, maybe I'll see some copycat attempts to like to turn memes real that are originally.

Speaker 1

Yeah, well that's that's that's an interesting I mean, I think that there's a very good shot at that happening.

And by the way, I want to applaud myself on saying not interested, not from me, not interested, not interested enough on X that I don't get any of these in my feet, so I get very few viral videos.

So I applaud my brain for for not being exposed to at least that matter of slop.

But there are some viral videos that look incredibly real and that have actually been used by real news organizations and by the president obviously.

So I think that there will be more and more of that happening.

Right where you have these very plausible seeming videos.

There was one one that went viral which was a street interview in New York about I think it was about Snap benefits and that went viral and was picked up by actual media, and the people didn't exist, right, It was a fake interview or a fake interviewee, fake interview, fake everything.

And I think we're going to be seeing a lot more of that, which is kind of craft the character that fits your storyline, right, give them the dialogue that you think this type of person should be saying, and here you go, here's a video which is going to I think upset the balance of how we consume news and how we can figure out what is and isn't real, right, Like, are you able to use video as proof that something did or it did not happen and in the absence of sophisticated technology to detect if something is real or fake, which exists but not in the general viewers.

You know, it's not like I can see a video and immediately be like, oh, this is fake, this is real.

The better they get, the less able, the just average user is to be able to detect that.

What we know from psychology is that once you're exposed to it, even if it's then debunked as fake, the you know, the effects linger right, It's not like it magically disappears from your brain.

It's still kind of has this Oh but it's kind of real type of primacy.

And I think we're gonna be so we talked.

Speaker 2

I don't fast it much here.

So like, yeah, when Charlie Kirk was killed.

Speaker 3

Uh, the assassin was someone who had grown up in a conservative family but had become more more left wing over time.

But like you know, you know, people like Helicos Richardson, the most prominent substacker, right kind of spread misinformation or she didn't, And there's no kind of right spread misinformation speculing that he was a griper, meaning somebody who thought that like a Nick Finis type, who thought that like Charlie Kirk wasn't conservative enough, it wasn't pure enough, right, and that was just total misinformation.

But like Jimmy Kimmel said something similar, right in like polls of Democrats or actually general voters, like a lot of people, if you survey them, think that Charlie Kirk's killer was actually a conservative Many people think that, so like, yeah, it is.

Speaker 2

It is hard to debunk.

Speaker 3

So like, so I've just in a situation where I'm like, I don't feel like I have anybody to trust on certain types of stories right now.

Speaker 1

Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And I think that that problem is going to get only worse.

I think that that's a prediction that we can stand behind for for this coming year.

Who do you think will have the best AI model by the end of the year.

So this time next year, which of the AI models is going to which company is going to be ahead.

Speaker 2

As judged by like general consensus or.

Speaker 1

Like, yeah, I think so, I guess anthropic.

Speaker 2

I mean, look, you can make a contrarian case.

Speaker 3

So right now, I think the consensus of like super AI super user nerds would.

Speaker 2

Say probably Claude.

Speaker 3

But people seem to like GPT five point two so far, which was a pretty rapid progression from five point one.

Open AI has the most resources.

You know, people seem to think that Gemini is very literal I need, but a very good model.

Speaker 2

I wouldn't put anything past Google.

I don't know, maybe up in AI is like undervalued resources they have.

Speaker 1

I'm gonna go with Google Deep Mind.

I think that they're gonna be the winners at the end of this year.

Okay, in dumbest with trust, I wonder if you're a little rescued.

Speaker 2

But no people, but it's you know, I'll go with Claude.

Speaker 1

I guess all right, let's uh, do do you want to do one New York specific one zoron?

Uh?

What do we think?

Do you wanna do you wanna do a zoron prediction or do you want to just see what happens?

Speaker 2

Well you get his free buses this year?

Speaker 1

Uh?

Maybe maybe I don't think so, though I give it like a I'll get it.

I'll give it a thirty five per chance.

Speaker 2

So one free.

But I think there'll be a pilot program, right, because who can not.

Speaker 1

The entire city.

Speaker 3

Yeah, they'll make like a second avenue by free or something.

Right, Yeah, they'll make a couple of buses free, I predict, and we'll see how it go.

Speaker 1

All right.

Speaker 2

I'm not that I post the free buses.

Speaker 1

No, I think it's a great idea.

Speaker 2

I think it's early today.

Speaker 3

Yeah, but like I mean, the problem is, like you give people who want to sit and ride a bus all day and an opportunity to do that, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2

This might not be people you want on the bus necessarily, but yeah.

Speaker 1

Well I think that.

I think that a lot of places have tried it, not a lot, A few places have tried it and it's worked pretty well so and it might help with congestion.

So let's see.

Yeah, let's see what happens, all right, Nate, do you think that, well, how many days do you think you're going to make it in the WSOP Maine event?

Speaker 2

So it was five this year and six two years ago?

I guess two before?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean the median the median is three, And I do think now, I do think there is some particular advantage in that tournament if you've played it a lot and run deep before, right, But it would be you know, the correct answer, siskally is is two or three?

And I think I'm I think three is probably the actually correct answer, And I think to predict four or more would be quite arrogant and unrealistic.

Speaker 1

When how many days does it last?

When it's the final table, it's nine days?

Speaker 2

Nine or ten?

Yeah?

Speaker 1

Okay, so I'm going to predict I make it to day ten.

Okay, I'm gonna manifest it.

I'm manifested it.

I fuck it, fuck it, Nate.

So I'm I'm making the final table this year.

You know, Leo did it last year.

She was a great guest on this podcast, and I think it's it's you know, the time for and Chrissy almost did it the year before.

So I think women women have been getting further and further, so this year, why not me for our last episode?

If I'm going to make a prediction, I you know, if there's a less than one percent chance, that's still fine.

I am vision board manifesting.

So on that note, let's just end the predictions with me winning the doublesp made event.

I think that's it's a great one, or at least final tabling.

I'm not gonna get too ergon.

I don't have to win it our final table.

I'd like to win it, but final tabling, you know, I'll take it.

I'll take it, you know.

Speaker 2

I would take it.

I take a day seven.

How about that?

Speaker 4

All right?

Speaker 1

Sounds good?

And with that, thank you Risky Business listeners for being an amazing audience and again follow us on our substacks and stay tuned for more news about where Nate and I will be heading next.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I guess the end has to come somewhat awkwardly here.

Speaker 3

Yeah, at the end, I don't know if you know, if you want to like sing a theme song or no or whatever, you.

Speaker 1

Know, absolutely not you can sing, Nate, I'm gonna I'm gonna listen.

Speaker 3

All the memories all alone, and I don't even know what song that is.

Speaker 1

Thanks, We're ending on an Andrew Lloyd Weber classic flop.

Speaker 3

Let's do not like not like musicals.

By the way, don't get any wrong ideas.

Speaker 4

All right.

Speaker 1

We hope we've made some good memories here with you, and we look forward to making more memories with you in the future, wherever that may be.

Let us know what you think of the show.

Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM.

Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.

Speaker 3

And by me Nate Silver.

The show was a Cool production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia.

This episode was produced by Isaac Carter.

Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia Jean Kott and Daphney Chen are our editors.

And our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

Mixing by Sarah Bruguer.

Speaker 1

If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too, but once again, only if you like us.

We don't want those bad reviews out there.

Thanks for tuning in,

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