Pushkin.

Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.

I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm Nate Silver.

Today in the show, look, we're both in New York City at least part time.

We're going to talk about the New York mayor all raise Eric Adams, the current mayor incurment mayor of New York dropped out this weekend.

We're talking about the implications for the race, talk about the game theory behind Eric adams decision, and also a little bit about this vacuum of leadership that has kind of compelled a surprising candidates or I'm I'm doning to be the very likely in my opinion, next mayor of New York.

Absolutely, and well we'll, obviously, because this is Risky Business, get some game theory in there, the game theory of the decision, the timing, all of those fun things.

So yeah, well we're going to have politics centric show for you today.

Before we do that, though, Nate Happy Fall.

It is officially autumn, by the way, so now we're recording this Monday, September twenty ninth.

It is hot as fuck in New York City.

It is muggy, it is.

Great I mean here in Manhattan, Maria, it's a whole different micro climate than your neck of the woods.

But yeah, it's been a little muggy.

It's muggy, it's sticky, but yet it's officially fall.

I was in Vermont this weekend leaf watching.

That was beautiful.

But I have to say, you know, whatever, whatever the causes, climate change, et cetera, the leaf colors are much more muted this year, and by the end of the weekend they started almost like everything started falling.

I was like, wait, this isn't supposed to be peak leafs yet, and yet here we are.

But it was still beautiful.

What if climate change made like fawful each better, would you favor it?

Then?

Yes?

Absolutely?

No, please please?

Does it like pollution make sunsets better?

Is that a thing?

Yes?

Yes, mog makes uh smog makes sunsets more beautiful because it filters the colors in a funny way, and so so yes, absolutely, we have we have some silver Nate in terms of risky business business.

On the drive back from Vermont, driving down this bucolic road you know about to like exit and get on the highway, open windows because it's nice fall weather.

A fucking wasp flies into the car, straight into my arm and bites me.

I got stung for the first time, and I.

Don't know how long.

I have no idea I was while I was watching, I was like, I have no idea.

If I'm allergic, I had better drill because I have a lot of other allergies.

So I was like, okay, I'm ready.

And I'm in the middle of nowhere, Vermont with no cell reception.

So I was like, I sure, hope I'm not because this ain't good anyway, I'm not allergic.

Everything's good.

It just there was swelling.

It really hurt, but so yeah, wasps stung me and I thought flew out of the car about two out hours later on the highway in the middle of the highway, no rest stops in sight.

The fucker starts buzzing around in the car.

The wasp did not leave the car.

So nay, risky business question, risk calculus.

What do you do you are on a highway driving like seventy five eighty miles an hour and there's a wasp flying around like you can't turn off because you're on a highway.

What are you supposed to do?

Because that is you know it can't just go on.

Okay, first of them, Ma, Ria, it's Vermont, right, you're not like, it's not like multiple fucking gas station with me.

This is no, no, no, This is now two hours later.

This is now on the highway and either Connecticut.

I think it's in Connecticut.

Let's call it Connecticut.

Yeah, pull over to the nearest gas station.

There was none.

Yeah, the nearest gas station was in like twenty miles Connecticut.

It's the most densely populated state pretty much.

Right.

There's a part where it says like this is the last rest stop for the next whatever many miles.

That's we had passed that point, no.

End of the road.

Put your hazards on and wait for the right Yeah.

Is that more risky than a wasp sting?

I think it's probably a close call.

I think it's a close I was trying to.

Do the risk calculus.

I was like, this thing is terrifying, like if it flies at you, the risk of swerving and getting into an accident anyway, ended up yet being able to pull over and get the Wasp out of the car.

Superhero moment, Nate superhero moment.

But that was actually, you know, it's one of those things you don't really think about in your risk calculus when you're talking about driving in all of these things.

But that was my I don't know why.

Maybe Vermont got mad that I didn't love its leaves this year, but it was kind of a final fucking from Vermont on my way out of the stay.

Rank the New England states from one to six in terms of what goodness?

Oh man, Well, I don't know.

I'm from Massachusetts.

You know, I grew up there, So I'm gonna put Massachusetts first because my family is there.

I went to school there.

You know.

There are lots of things about Massachusetts I don't like.

I think that the term masshole is very apt.

There are lots of things about Boston I don't like, and yet Boston's a beautiful you know, it's a city.

Still, I think I'm gonna put let me see Maine.

I think maybe number two.

All the mosquitoes might put Maine at number three.

I don't know.

Maine is such a fucking clear number one, Like, what are you even talking about?

Maine is gorgeous, But the mosquitoes killed me, So I'm gonna put at number two with an asterisk.

Fucking the Mosquitoes.

Let's see, I would put Rhode Island probably number three.

It's small, but.

Mighty weird, weird state.

Yes, it's a weird set.

It is a weird state, but it's it has a lot of really beautiful stuff, lots of interesting things.

Providence in Newport.

You know, I'm a I'm a fan.

Let's see Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, so Vermont.

Maybe Vermont's number four.

I guess no, No, I love Vermont.

I think it's beautiful.

I think they are people there can be like.

It's a really weird state as well, and obviously I have a personal family connection to Vermont and like for that reason, I do love it.

So maybe we put Maybe I actually put Vermont before Rhode Island.

New Hampshire is going to be dead last.

I hate New Hampshire and I hate Connecticut.

Connecticut and New Hampshire I kind of tied for last.

What about you day, Yeah, look, Maine Maine is number one.

Then it gets more difficult.

I mean, I like, I agree that the bottom tier has to be Connecticut, and I think has to be Connecticut.

I like, I don't dislike Connecticut.

In fact, my fucking family, my dad's like from Connecticut.

So maybe I'm gonna put Yeah, I just don't want to be insulting.

I mean, maybe put my I mean I have.

Family in Connecticut too.

My sister, whom I love dearly, were very close.

You know.

She teaches and her labs at Yale, so her family lives in Connecticut.

So you know, I obviously am not going to be anti Connecticut.

I'm not anti any state.

We're all inclusive here.

On the Risky Essing the podcast, there's.

A criteria where if you had to live in a state, Let's see, you have to live in that state for eleven months out of twelve per year.

You're madded thirty travel days or whatever, right, and you had to pick in New England state.

Okay.

By that criteria, mass choosets would be.

I'm going to Massachusetts.

First or second for me?

Right, by just overall sentiment, though, I mean, I don't really you know, Boston is like a charming European city without the charm, you know what I mean.

I like the layout of Boston.

Hey, I told you I'm not I'm not a Boston apologist.

I like the sports and I don't like the sports teams, but like you know, I would just go and be a fucking I would just watch so much fucking sports if I lived in Massachusetts and go to the Encore play poker.

Yeah, absolutely, I think that Boston would actually be a good place for you, for like, if you were forced to live somewhere for a little while, I think you'd, you know, because of the sports, and it has good sushi.

Nate, you know, no, Maria, I would, Maria, Maria.

The food in New England is a problem.

Literally, fucking who is a Graham, you know, the guy who had been in the gram Cracker.

He lives like, we don't want to have food with fucking flavor in it, right food?

And the food in New England is, yes, an absolute problem everywhere, but at least, you know, at least we can get decent sushi and Boston.

Like in Vermont, I really wanted sushi, like you do not get sushi anywhere near where I was in Vermont.

Want to die, I just I was in a sushi mood.

I didn't want sushi and Vermont.

I wanted sushi in the abstract and that's not possible anyway.

My WASP staying is getting better.

Fuck wasps.

I hate them.

I hope I never see one again, although obviously I will.

Let's move on to politics.

So we had some news over the weekend, and again we're recording this on Monday.

You're going to hear it on Wednesday, so if there are any developments in the meantime, we will not have caught them.

But Eric Adams announced that he was dropping out of the race for mayor of New York City.

And he did this just a few days before, you know, the race already passed the deadline for his name to be removed.

So passed like a while ago.

A while ago, Okay, So Mayor Adams announced that he was dropping out long after the deadline to take his name off of the ballot.

And it's a pretty historic moment because he is going to be then just the second mayor to not win re election.

And is that true because you think of New York mayors as having had problematic careers, but I guess they tend to I guess they tend to get the re election thing, right.

Yeah.

David Dinkins, who was the city's first black mayor, lost his reelection bid, and that was the only other mayor who did not serve a second.

Tim Bloomberg changed the rules to run a third time, and one actually close than you might have expected.

But yeah, I guess I mean the Blasio Bloomberg, Rudy Dinkin's one term, Ed Katsch, who is Abraham Beam.

I was not aware.

I You're named Abraham Beam.

Wait, okay, Nate, So if I'm understanding you correctly, Bean also didn't win re election.

Yeah, he left office in nineteen seventy seven.

There's no Bean Street, I guess anywhere, not well remembered.

And there are a couple of others in the past.

Okay, So Adams is the third in modern New York City history who has not won reelection.

Very small group that, you know, seems like it's an accomplishment of a sort negative accomplishment in its own right.

Modern or contemporary.

Sorry, it's something contemporary contemporary New York City.

But yeah, it is very notable that he dropped out, and the timing, Nate, I think is quite notable as well, because, well, what happens now with the votes, Right, we talked in the primaries that the primaries were rank choice voting.

That is not the case right with the general mayoral election.

So it's not the case that you know, oh you know, if you don't get fifty percent, now we're going to you know, your your votes are going to go down to the next candidate, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

And Adams when he was stepping down announcing that he was going to be withdrawing from the race also did something notable, I think when he did not endorse any other candidate.

Right, normally, when people drop out of a race close to the election, when it's you know, an election that has so many political spirits inflamed, you want your votes to go to someone, right, you want to actually make a statement, and you say, you know, I'm dropping out, but I think you know Nate Silver is your best choice for mayor.

And instead he's like, fuck Nate Silver, Fuck all these guys.

You know, this guy's a snake.

This Maria person that can't be trusted, she changes her mind.

You know, everyone sucks.

That was kind of his speech, not literally but figuratively speaking.

And that was another interesting choice.

So if we're talking about kind of the game theory of his decision, what it means other than just like I'm out, this is the timing and a big fuck you, it's it is a very I think he's made some interesting choices.

Yeah.

Look, I've actually tried to model in the context of presidential primaries when candidates drop out, and it's fairly product They basically drop out when they have no shot, right, and then more likely to drop out if they were once perceived to have a shot, meaning that they have some type of future, but then they fall far behind enough in the polls the fundraising guys up.

But yeah, he had opportunities allegedly to take various lucrative jobs associated with the Trump administration.

Maybe you'll take one of those eventually, but like he was gonna lose, probably finish in fourth place, right, and that would have been embarrassing.

So that's that's you know, he's trying to preserve credibility for whatever future endeavors that he has.

I mean with most canistates of the incentive, with Eric Adams, I'd say, who knows what's happening in terms of you know, look, you know it's New York City.

You know, maybe you turn a blind eyed stuff.

But that would be the logical reason he wasn't gonna win, right, He wasn't gonna win.

He was at oh, zero percent in polymarket.

He was at eight percent in the polls, and so yeah, the game theory is just that, like there's a non zero cost to embarrassment.

So Nate, uh, polymarket, how long has he been close to zero on polymarket?

So according to polymarket, we're full disclosure.

I'm an advisor.

It looks like they may be disabled.

It's actually hard to find the Eric Adams graph where it's it's like now it's zero, but let me take a look here.

Yeah, so it became clear that the next most viable alternative was Andrew Cuomo fairly early, right, I mean Adams is yeah, I mean if you're looking back here, yeah, yeah, it's hard to even find.

The reason I asked that question, she got a little.

Brad lander back in the day.

You know, you got a lander.

But the reason I asked the question, right, is that it was very clear I think to everyone, as you say, that's why I asked how long his poly Market had him ut close to zero, that he wasn't going to win for a long time, and he made a decision to wait until now to drop out, and not earlier.

Now we could say that, oh, he's just a hubriistic, you know, person with head in the clouds and just assumes that he can make changes and that eventually.

He's harek Adams.

We're talking about Maria.

I know, I know, I know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, and that he just thought that he could somehow pull a win out of his ass, but that that is what it seems like, or or he decided, you know what, I want to screw over, like I don't like Cuomo enough that like I don't want him to have time to consolidate support, right, and so I'm going to spite weight until much longer so that he doesn't have time to do the fundraising and kind of no, I'm serious, like what what are the calculations going through your mind?

Because it's clear and yes, we know that allegedly he had been in talks to become the ambassador to Saudi Arabia and that that had fallen through Saudi Arabia, and so you know, he's been mulling an exit strategy for a while and the announcement only comes now when there's not much time to do any to do much of anything.

And I mean, obviously the other part of it is he doesn't have that many votes.

I think he's consistently pulled in the single digits.

Yeah, not like, so even if all of his votes go to one single candidate, which again he didn't endorse anyone, so that is probably not happening.

But if that were to happen, that still wouldn't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

So maybe he did that calculus and was like, you know what, I'm going to do this in the most fuck you way possible, like I said, Or maybe he was just hubristic and up until the very end, up until this past weekend, thought hey, maybe I can actually have a chance.

Yeah, look, Kenna, in multi way races, you can't have interesting dynamics right where you basically have castating effects, where like, if one candy is rising the polls and a voter is in different between them, then that voter might gravitate toward whichever candy seems to have the most chance, right Like, there is some evidence that like Zoren has his voters and then Cuomo curtisiwa who's the Republican, and Eric Adams are kind of competing for the rest of the electorate, and whether that's fifty percent or not can be can be debated potentially, right, So it's not crazy for somebody to think that, Like, by the way it happened in the Democratic primary, where like, you know, Zoran was polling in a you know, respectable second place in most of the polls, and originally he was pulling at one percent, right, And I think Eric Adams even like cited Polymarket at one point to say, hey, people discounted Zoram before.

I mean's a little flipped around because they underestimated Zoram.

Maybe they will again and have win by any of a bigger margin than polls show.

I don't know, but like, it's not it wouldn't be crazy for Eric Adams to think this race could you know, have some unexpected turns if he didn't have so many hard negatives.

Right, his approval ratings in New York are quite low.

The fact that he's buddy buddy with Trump.

There are some Trump oters in New York more than they used to be, but does not help him unbalanced with what's going to be probably a fairly young liberal electorate.

Right, So those hard negatives really because you know, he's had opportunities, you know, and also he wasn't is the incumbent he was not intimidating enough to deter Cuomo from running, even when Alma was frankly embarrassed already in the primary.

Is a glutton for more punishment apparently clearly.

Yeah, yeah, And uh, it's interesting because you know Cuomo has you know, I think all of the other candidates except for Sila have considered potential deals, right, and Curtis Sila says, you know, I'm not Sliwa.

Sorry, I yes, Sliwa.

This is this is one of those that I my dyslexia definitely kicks in.

So Curtis Sliwa has said repeatedly that you know, I'm not dropping out and I'm not given my votes to anyone else, and he's been pretty i think, consistent about that.

And that is the one candidate who could have probably moved the needle right if he dropped out.

And we'll be right back after this break.

One of the things you mentioned, Nate earlier in the episode was kind of this democratic power vacuum and this lack of kind of focused direction, consensus on the future of the party.

Now.

You and I talked about this briefly back in the primary, right after zora On had won, and I think that that's even more true.

Now.

It's interesting when the Democratic Party is trying to reach the Republicans to try to take votes away from a Democrat, right, Like that doesn't happen that often when they say, Okay, this Democrat is a little too democratic for us, and so maybe we want to reach out to our Republican counterparts to prevent him from becoming mayor.

That's an interesting playbook page.

Yeah.

Look, I don't think it's helped I don't think it's hurt Zora much.

That Like there's such explicit attempts at coordination, where like every week a new hedge from billionaireuld be like, we can't let this socialist wait, and let's get all the conservatives together, right, And it's like you kind of are making the point for Zoren, like it's a bunch of billionaires trying to crowd him out of the mayorship, right, and like it's you know, look, I think a non scandal plagued and actually interested in being there of New York Andrew Cuomo might have been a better can eight.

I don't know, right, but yeah, you got locked into some very flawed alternatives early in New York.

It does have fairly strict ballot laws.

It was not possible to get like a a a new name on the ballot without signatures because the primary was back in June.

And so I know, I have a lot of respect for Zoran's political talent.

But yeah, and I don't know.

What do you think about what do you think about Cuomo?

I have not.

I am not a huge fan.

Did you watch the pandemic briefings?

I tried.

I started out watching the pandemic briefings.

There wasn't much else to do.

This is true, This is true.

We were all stuck.

I was stuck in my eight hundred square foot apartment in Brooklyn at the time.

No I remember like going to like was it New Year's twenty twenty and I was twenty twenty?

Is COVID year?

It's all it seems like happily so long ago now, Maria, right, And like we were in some fucking restaurant and Brooklyn outdoors and like a close like the minute at mint anyway, all these fucking rules about outdoor dying.

It just kind of brings back those people who have like, oh I have, I kind of have nostalgia for COVID.

Fuck you, you know, I don't know it was you know, maybe if you were in a warm state, right, but not that winter in New York.

But yeah, look, you know, I think zarn't also been to the fact that like the establishment and the Democratic Party has been kind of discredited.

Right people, for better or worse, don't really believe that it's going to win elections.

And also you have all these leaders who are either you know, neo babies is NEPO or nepo I guessmotism either babies, Oh, really fucking old, you know what I mean?

Babies?

Yeah, and like and like people are are tired of that, and like the left has the kind of you know, I mean, I guess the left gained a lot of cultural power in some ways, like a certain kind of maybe more cultural woke left, which I don't consider really the true left.

I think they're just kind of this other thing that's kind of correlated with the left.

But you know, why not why not give why not give socialism a trimary?

We've tried everything else and we're out of ideas.

No, I mean, I think that it's a you know, it's a really interesting and pivotal moment in the Democratic Party because I mean, we've talked about this to death, but there is this major power vacuum and lack of direction and lack of understanding of how to win votes.

You know, it's mind boggling to me that a party that used to be able to organize so effectively, I mean, New York was the center of democratic political organization for so long with you know, Tammany Hall is a drag queen.

No, yes, I mean, actually, Nate, I'm pretty sure there's there must be a drag queen out there whose name is Tammany Hall.

And if there's not drag queens, if you're listening to this, please can we have a Tammany Hall drag queen?

But the particular one I am referring to it would be such a great name.

Was a New York political machine which had influence on a national scale.

Started in in the late seventeen hundreds, had a ton of influence in the eighteen hundreds, basically engineered, manipulated, did a lot of stuff, some good old fashioned politics, some more mobby and strong hand, strong handed to basically control New York for a very long period of time.

I'm not nostalgic for Tammany Hall.

That was you know, we're talking that was corrupt party politic bosses, et cetera, et cetera.

But they knew how to mobilize votes.

They knew how to get to people, not in the mob way, but in the actual, you know, mobilizing support way.

And you know, I think that we are now in this moment where there seems to be just a lack of clear direction of how to get that popular appeal and what direction to take to actually be able to attain the levels of popularity that are needed to win elections, to get candidates who are then viable not just on a state but on a national level, right to actually kind of create the next generation of party leaders and figure out, you know, what does the future of the party actually look like.

And you know, we've talked a lot about how the Kamala Harris campaign just completely failed to do this, and U Nate actually just had a newsletter out last week, I believe about Mayor Pete and his appeal or lack thereof among different demographics.

It seems like there is a vacuum there.

And if you remember, you know, when we talk about the future of the Democratic Party, the person who we're talking about today well, partially Eric Adams.

He was once that face, right, people thought that someone like Adams could be the future of the Democratic Party.

People were so excited when he was elected, and like that didn't go over so well.

How long did it take for him to appoint his brother to the police, Like less than twenty four hours, not literally, but it was just like a few days after he'd gotten elected.

I mean the corruption stuff started happening just immediately immediately upon election, and that did not go the way that the Democratic Party thought that it would.

But you know, if people don't remember, like Eric Adams was not always a disgraced politician.

There was like a history of a lot of support and enthusiasm and excitement about him as a candidate.

Yeah, I wrote a tweet that people like the resurface in times about like, oh, I think Eric Adams is one of the one of the five or ten people most likely to have a bright future in the president and the Democratic Party, Right, And then the next tweet was like, by the way, it's because he's Hiberia, so it might not work out, but it might work out.

People love throwing that back, right, and it's like they actually they don't actually quote the second tweet, it's all out of context, but you know whatever, It's the fucking Internet, so who cares.

But yeah, I was one of those people who thought that, like, Okay, this is interesting because you have a black candidate who was pretty moderate, especially on issues like policing where Democrats had moved too far to the left of New York has never been quite as woke about police stuff as some other cities.

Right, So I had this template was interesting, right that, like, you know, given that kind of like the two major constituencies in the Democratic Party were are voters of color.

I don't know how I feel about that term, but black what is especially Hispanic Asian American right?

And then progressive liberals within this house, we believe yard science as the other major coalition partner.

Like I thought, maybe like a minority candidate who's more moderate could interestingly kind of like appeal to to both and might also you know one thing that I think is born out by the literature but by anecdotal experience, who is that like a woman or a minority candidate tends to read as being more liberal than they are.

Right, people are applying priors and Adams kind of overcame that with the x cop thing and just like like no would mistake although he had pronouns in his bio on Twitter, but no one would mistake him for like a far left Yeah, okay, right, And I thought that was an interesting combination for a party looking for, uh, for moderates.

Aren't this kind of cookie cutter, white person type of thing?

Oh?

Absolutely?

And then he had you know, he also always stressed that he had working classroots, right, which he did, so that was kind of another appealing thing where it's like, you know, X cop more more towards the conservative side, but man, you know, man of the people, kind of more populist some of the appeals that we see working from you know, Donald Trump, right, and and the kind of the the maga like appeals he had that he had the police, he had the minority.

And yes, Nate, there actually are some good data points, there's good literature on this that people do make certain assumptions about how liberal or conservative you are based on how you look.

So if people looked at the two of us and just saw photographs of us and didn't know anything about us, they would assume that you were much more conservative than I am.

That's not right, like it's it doesn't.

Actually, these are not things that are born out in reality.

But people use incorrect data assumptions all the time, right, snap judgments when you see someone and so yes, your your your point about the fact that that made him seem like he'd be more liberal, more attractive to liberals, is correct?

You know who was?

Who was?

I another you would have a weak spot for Turkish airlines air mile.

I mean, like, I look, I would hold out for I've never found trinket airlines.

I'm sure it's nice, right, I would hold out for fucking Emirates or Qatar or something, right.

I mean you're selling you a little cheap there.

I mean, I've never I've never flown Emirates, but I have heard that it's really really nice.

And I almost flew in Emirates once to a speaking engagement, and I was I didn't really want to do the speaking engagement and it was going to be really disruptive, but I was really excited about flying Emirates first class.

I got upgraded.

When tim on Emirates they upgrade, they're like, here's a I know, maybe they're trying to improve relations with the Jews or some.

I've seen it.

Maybe you and I would be Maybe you and I would make corrupt politicians.

Maybe all it would take would be a few upgrades, and all of a sudden we'd have corruption scandals of our own as we took the mayoral office.

But yeah, what do we you know, I think that if we're if we're talking about, you know, back back to kind of the decision to drop out.

Now, I you know, my gut feeling is that this really isn't going to change the race much, right, that it was.

The timing of the exit and the tenor of the exit makes it seem that it is basically not consequential in terms of the eventual results of the election.

Do you agree with that or do you think that I'm under selling it a little bit.

That's just my gut reaction based on everything we've talked about.

I don't think you're understand I mean, look the math, Zoraim's ahead about twenty points with everybody running, right, Adams had about nine percent, right, So if you take the whole nine and give it to Quormo, then that closes the guests steps at two eleven, which would start to be a more manageable gap.

Right.

However, I'll probably get two thirds of it, So it winds up like reducing zornzly to fifteen points, and like fifteen points is a sizable edge.

We still have as of the time we're speaking, Maria, we still have five and a half weeks to go.

The whole World Series of Poker is almost as long, right, there's still there's still a while, yes, but yeah.

There's a time for a one outer night.

I don't think I think he's trying to an inside straight.

I think we're using that fucking correctly.

That analogy, I mean has odds at polemarker to fourteen percent, and my newsletter day I said I probably tweaked those down to ten percent.

There.

I think prey dependent on Sleiwad dropping out or something.

We're at the zone where like this is not in the statistical or practical margin of error, right, if Sleeva drops out, then it becomes actually close.

Okay, but you need like a change in the narrative or something that like you know, if there were you know, I don't know.

I mean, the problem is like a lot of things that would be like October surprises would be like like what if Trump sends the National Guard to New York.

I'm not sure that would help Cuomo, right, I think that Zori, You're like, this is bad blahlah blah.

Resistance hashtag help him potentially, you know what I mean?

Yeah, I was actually gonna ask, like, you know, do we do we think, like, can there be an X fact or October surprise type of thing that changes the odds?

Obviously this is speculative, but what are polymarkets odds of SLIWA dropping out?

About sixteen percent?

I mean, there's no real reason to drop out.

He won the it was uncontested domination.

He won there a nomination far and square.

Yeah, he won.

And he said that he's not like he has said multiple times that he has not dropped.

He is not going to drop out.

I mean that said so did atoms up until the point where he dropped out.

Well, his sons are different.

He gets to be on TV a whole bunch, and he's run for many things many times.

He's a founder of the Guardian Angels.

I guess he's trying to build support for his cause.

Actually kind of an interesting guy, uh, not as conservatives you might expect.

I mean, he's kind of a typical New Yorker and like on some of like the LGBTQ rights, you know, kind of slightly woke combined with being quite conservative on crime and other subjects.

Right, it's a certain type of New Yorker and he I don't think he beats orin, but like he's been overshadowed by the Cuomo Adams drama.

Yeah, and it seems to me that his calculus is very, very different from Adams's in the sense that, as you pointed out, and you know, for Adams, being defeated can cause embarrassment and can potentially, you know, for his future political prospects.

Not the corruption or bribery or those charges, but the fact that he you know, lost the election is what's going to do him in politically.

So for him, you know, it's that kind of calculus.

But for Sliwa, the calculus is actually mostly upside right right now, he's getting media exposure.

It's not negative media exposure.

He's getting to speak, he's getting to voice opinions.

Like, it's actually completely different up until you know, he probably knows he's not going to win, and it doesn't matter, right because he is setting up for a better political future for himself by staying in the race.

And so the game theory I think just is not there for him.

Why in the world would he drop out and give his votes to Cuomo or to anyone else.

That being said, if he doesn't drop out, then Adams's decision to drop out basically changes nothing in terms of you know, in terms of our calculus of who is going to win the race.

Again, we don't know if there's going to be an X factor.

Maybe someone is busy out there, you know, preparing to drop a bomb bombshell news item.

You already would have dropped you I would have dropped it though, right in a two can eight race it's a little different, right, but you would have dropped the bombshell.

And also you have the primary, and like ran in the primary, Zoran kind of came not quite out of nowhere, right, but it was a relatively quick rise.

But like it's been a fucking slow Like, why we have this fucking primary in June for a general election in November.

I'm not sure I understand that you need that much time to campaign anyway, It's crazy.

You know, the June timing is supposed to help incumbents because all the rich people are out in the Hampton's or Vermont Maria, for example.

Wait, is that true?

Is that the reason for.

The June I believe that's that's something that people who have knowledge about city politics tend to believe, is my understanding.

I phrase that oddly.

Yeah, no, No, I get what you were trying to say.

I did not know that.

I was always curious about why the timing was what it was.

But I guess that makes sense.

And we'll be back right after this.

By the way, Yeah, you alluded to before, like Cuomo Adams were kind of counting on the machine type turnout where where you're good at getting your voters out.

The problem actually for Cuomo in the primary was that like turnout was quite high relative to mayoral primaries, right, So he probably got the voters he expected to get.

But Zorin brought up people that had not voted in these primaries before.

Yeah, so Zarn in a way was able to activate that machine better than the old Democratic as stafleablishment could.

Well, But like the machine is, the machine is kind of fucking, kind of fucking.

Broken, exactly.

No one likes the exactly.

That's that's the point.

So you know Zora as the individual.

He is one of those McDonald's ice cream makers.

It's like, oh, you've always broken broken, except there's no scam to get the repair guy in.

Apparently there's a website that actually tracks those McDonald's machines and you can see where the ones, you know, it's basically all broken, but where the functioning ones are.

I found that quite amusing.

Never tried the ice cream at McDonald's, but I for some reason know this little bit of information and find it very funny.

But yes, that's a good analogy.

I think that the you know, the ice cream machine is definitely broken in most locations in New York, and Zoron was able to come out with his you know, mister softy little cart and blare his song.

If we're gonna, if we're going to continue this analogy.

Do you ever eat chain fast food?

No?

I don't often.

The only so I've never I've had McDonald's fries.

That's the only thing I've ever eaten at McDonald's.

You've never had a big mac.

No, I've never had a big mac, and I've never American.

I am, I am what I've never You've never had a big Mack.

I've never had a big mac.

Nate would you have one, can still be friends?

Would you have one?

I mean, if forced to, I might try a bite just to say I've tried it, but no, I don't's kind.

Of a good sandwich, I don't.

I don't really want one.

I like it's pretty good.

I like burgers, but you know, I'm more of like a Minetta Tavern, black Pipelburger type of person.

So you've never been like an airport where like because they always have the fucking like they have the local fucking concession.

That's some terrible fucking airport specific version, right, I'm a big fan of You got the McDonald's, You've got the Wendy's at the airport.

I've never been to Days.

I've never been inside a Wendy's.

I've never been to Burger King.

You've never been inside a wedding.

I've never been inside a Burger King.

I've never eaten anything from either one of those establish men's never been to Arby's.

I have been to In and Out.

I've eaten an In and Out Burger, and I've eaten shake Shack.

But I went to shakeshaf course back when Shakeshack was in the park.

You know when the line was like all all the way around.

I you know, I still did.

That was before I lived in New York, you know, I was.

I was a teenager when it opened, and I remember being so excited.

I came to New York and I stood in that line for I don't know how long to get a shake shack, burger and concrete and that was I think, yeah, that and in and out is an in and out is I think more more fast foody.

That is the closest that I have come to trying fast food burgers night five guys.

I tried five guys when five guys first came to New York.

Does that count?

It's the higher end you got to get into, like the like anything beyond like Wendy's is too high end.

Right, by the way, my own stock in Shake Shock because I'm like, they get people, They get people like you, Maria to eat fast food, and that seems like a good business model, you know what I mean.

People would never be caught dead sitting foot to McDonald's, right, They're like, oh, Shake Shock, this is this is premium.

This is premium.

Have you had Chipotle?

Yes, I have had Chippotle.

Okay, okay, I mean that's that's in the premium zone, sill, I think, But like, yes, anyway.

I have had Chipotle, uh, and it was actually I think Chipotle would be my go to if I had to go to, like if I had to pick a fast food place, I think Chipotle has the highest quality, freshest ingredients out of out of the things, that.

Chipotle is the restaurant I've probably eaten at the most times really in my life, right, yeah, because like I used to like fucking play you know, when I left my consulting job, I played poker online for a few years, right, and I'd always, I don't know, I'd stay up all night and then be like fucking famished in the afternoon.

I live like equidistant Chicago between like three Chipotles, and so I would like diversify which are the three Chipotles I went to?

Just like going there so often that it felt like a little bit, a little bit embarrassing.

All right, So we went from atoms to our fast food ratings, from.

Our New England ratings to our fast food rating.

So let's let's give Eric Adams a rating if you were a fast food chain, what would be oh to wrap this up.

Like what's I mean, maybe like a little So here's here's irony.

I don't think that New York City is doing so badly at all, really, right, Our crime is lower than incomparable cities.

People have left.

That part's not great, but they've kind of left most of these cities.

We have a couple of new airports that have come online.

We got a congestion pricing and a lot of this is not Adams is doing right, but you know, property values are doing more than fine.

Right, there are still housing stortages.

But like, yeah, if you ask people kind of how is New York doing?

I mean, people are inherently grumpy in the United States, right, But like so if people are punishing him for the for the corruption, yeah, as a mayor, I don't know, it seems okay, right if people people have trouble decoupling the personal stuff from like the legislation government stuff, understandably all.

Right, So in total, then what would he be?

Is he a McDonald's, Is he a Wendy's?

Is he at Chipotle?

No, he's like a little you know, little mom and pop Italian American place where they're still you know, they're not gonna take credit cards still, Maria, Why why not?

Well, you know, maybe they're not paying their full a lotment of taxes.

Yeah, they have loyal customers.

There's some special rooms in the back.

We're not quite sure what's going on there.

Right.

The food's pretty good.

You gotta stick to the basics.

You gotta stick to the chicken parm you gotta get the fried netballs and things like that.

Right.

You don't want to a venture too far, I feel, but it's pretty good.

So if we were going chain, then he would be closest to like a siborro anti.

Oh my god, I've never eaten a fucking saborro.

Well it's Italian, Maria.

I am a respector of Italian American cuisine.

Saborro is not meaningfully Italian.

Okay, okay, fair enough, All right, Well you heard it here first, guys, Eric Adams, small mob and pop Italian.

Definitely not Soborro siborro.

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