And now The Money Show with Stephen credits on seven oh two.

Let's walk this all.

The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you by ABSs cib On.

It is the best bank for ESG in Africa and South Africa by euro Money Awards for Excellence twenty twenty five.

Good evening, Welcome to the Money Show.

I'm Stephen Curtis.

Plenty going on today, lots of corporate news on top of tariffs.

We expect some kind of decision at some point in the next twenty four hours.

I say at some point because I imagine it will be delivered to you by social media from you know who.

And then, of course, at the same time we had the really quite astonishing announcement in its way by the Reserve Bank, the Monetary Policy Committee.

Of course, obviously we were all expecting a twenty five percent a basis cut in interest rates.

Who got one?

But then you have the decision by the Reserve Bank that actually they're going to aim for the lower end of the target.

So, in other words, effectively, as I speak to you now, it seems to me we have a inflation target of three percent silence from what I can see, from the politicians.

I don't know if they want to get into an argument about inflation and inflation targeting.

Right now, you'll hear from Pormolabiani at alex Forbes and doctor Zzarja mint Econometrics in just a couple of moments on that.

I was fascinated by what parks tow the Dtic Minister, the man at the center of these negotiations with the Trump administration.

He was speaking this morning.

In fact, he spoke to seven or two Spongani being where and just making the point that, like a lot of other countries, we're kind of waiting to see what happens.

Well, ill hear part of that interview.

But we'll also speak to the citrus industry.

I mean, can you imagine being one of the sectors, one of the industries involved in this.

I would say farming is a big one.

Citrus is a big one, but the auto industry, particularly in the Eastern Cape.

I was talking to someone from the Eastern Cape today and she was just saying, how worried people there are just huge concerns about what is likely to happen, and yet we wait in silence.

Well, you'll hear from the city industry in a little while.

Petrie riddling Hase will be your market commentated tonight.

I was amazed to see despite what's been happening in China and Brazil, where beer sales have been lower, SAB still seems to be well trucking along quite nicely.

Their CEO.

Their CEO, Richard Revet Karnak, will be on your radio in about half an hour just to explain how they do it.

Two brands I think are doing a lot of work for them at the moment.

But I mean brands and beer do change tastes, change their brands from fifty years ago that you just don't see anymore beers.

I mean I remember a couple of them.

I mean I haven't seen a lion larger in years.

It was a huge beer when I was growing up.

There are plenty of others.

Maybe it's just sort of where I am.

But when I was younger, Black Label was everywhere.

It was even in the Constitutional Court, remember, and now I just don't see it as much.

Still around, still a big brand, just don't see it as much.

And then the gold price, the World Gold Council before seven o'clock, I mean, amazing numbers coming out of the World Gold Council at the moment.

Great to hear from you tonight on O double one, double A, three oh seven oh two and two to one four four six oh five six seven voice notes of course on seven two, seven oh two one seven oh two.

I've been talking a little bit over the last couple of months about in store inflation for some of our biggest brands.

Boxer was one, pig in Pay was another.

Spoke earlier in the year about Spa and about Shopwright.

Well, I've got a number from for Woollies today.

I'll give you that number in a little while.

Really is a very very different number to what the others will tell you.

The Lanly Show with Stephen Cruts Live on ninety two point seven and one six FM, streaming on the Prime Media Plus.

Nave and DStv channel eight five six.

One of the most interesting Monetary Policy Committee announcements today the Governor de Serta Renajo confirming not only are their cutting rates by twenty five basis points of the committee is now also targeting the lower end of the target band.

In other words, instead of the targeting the midpoint of the three to six band, that would be four and a half percent the bank, I think, effectively lowering the inflation target to three percent.

In Malapiani's chief economist at Alex Forbes investments in pot A good evening.

Firstly, the interest rate announcement twenty five basis points.

We do expect more terrorists from Washington tomorrow.

The economy is clearly under pressure.

I wondered if under the old regime there might have been space for another for a deeper cut.

Yeah, even a good evening, and yeah, I mean, I think there's quite a large to unpeg.

Firstly the rate decision, but that almost seems secondary given the unilateral announcement on a lower target.

And on the back of that, we have these looming terrors that are supposed to be announced at some point.

Whether we going to get a lower rate or whether we're going to boomerang back to thirty percent, who knows at the stage, but you know what I mean.

I think for me, what was quite interesting is that going into this meeting, we saw fundamentals.

I mean, when you look at your microconomic data, growth came out pretty weak in the first got of the year.

Inflation remains very low at three percent.

I mean, yes, it ticked up, but it had been below the target for three conservative months, right, so very low.

Yes, the expectation is that inflation would trend high in the coming months, but the fundamentals were pretty much supportive of a cut.

I was not completely over the nine in terms of whether that cut happens at this meeting or whether it happens at the September meeting.

And that is because we have these looming risks, right, and especially on the back of the scenarios that the SAP had presented at the main meeting.

You to call that they had a several scenarios.

They had a three percent scenario, but they also had a terriff scenario in which they're worried that higher tariffs combined with a sentiment shock would lead to currency weakness and it could be inflationary and then in that scenario they would see the roupared going higher.

So you know, just given the risk that, you know, we are just one day away from knowing whether we're getting carriage on tariffs or not.

You know, the case for a cut wasn't clear cut for today's meeting, but nonetheless it happened.

But that seems secondary now given the announcement around the three percent target, and while we were expecting it, and you would recall at the main meeting when we spoke after the main meeting, it's one of the things that we talked about that you know, there's a change in the SOBS communication.

You know, they're now saying that we would like to see inflation expectations moved towards the end of the target range.

But in this particular statement they were explicit that the NPC now prefers inflation to cetulate three percent.

I mean, you know, this is a discussion which has been ongoing.

We were expecting the Minister of Finance, I think in his response or in his presentation to Parliament during the budget vote, he did indicate that, you know, there is broad based consensus that a low infiation target would be beneficial for South Africa.

But it seems as if though they were not over the line eat in terms of whether it should be now.

Certainly it seemed if though Treasure was still applying itself.

So the announcement really today, the unilateral announcement from the sub did come as a surprise and it's unprecedented as well.

These announcements have come from the Treasury before, although when they did move to the Forben for but bye, they did so unilaterally as well.

Thank you so much, important thoughts the chief economists at alex Forbes's investment listening to that, Doctor Azarjamin, director and chief economist at Economy Metrics, a our good evening to you.

I think and used the correct word their unilateral decision.

Can the governor make it stick?

I think there's a good chance that you can make it sick.

I have to say that I found it quite an ingenious ploy on the part of the Reserve Bank.

They kept making the statement that they, you know, are working towards reducing the inflation target because that will influence inflation expectations downwards.

But one has kept thinking in terms of the fact that it's finally, at the end of the day, a national treasury decision.

Well, in a sense, they've almost overridden the National Treasury and said, well, yeah, you know, we don't have to make you don't have to decide now whether it's whether to go for the three percent, but we are certainly going to target three percent.

And as a consequence, they now have a far lower inflation forecast and have also, as a consequence, enhanced the ability to reduce interest rates by one percent more than previously anticipated.

That's quite a dramatic change, and I think it is quite a clever way in which they've gone about this.

I have to say they're basically dangling a nice, big, juicy suite or something and saying you can have this if you let us do this.

We still think it's legal and we're not too worried about the Finance minste that is.

Correct and it was ingenious the way he is.

The Governor in the media conference after the statement explained explicitly how we used to have a three to six percent target range, but that effectively meant that people were targeting six and it was only when the Reserve Bank said, no, we actually wanting to target four and a half percent the midpoint that he finally managed to get inflation expectations to start coming down, which they did.

And I'm saying, well, why not left target the lower end of the inflation target And there's nothing illegal about it, all against the constitution of this whole thing, and the effect could be to actually help in reducing inflation dramatically over the next few years and inflation expectations and enable interest rates to fall further.

Than they might otherwise have done, and that's very good for our economic prospects.

So I was going to put it to you like this that if the sticks and if it all works out, and obviously there are a few big ifs there, but me, myself, my children, my grandchildren effectively won't lose as much money to inflation over the next ten, twenty thirty one hundred years.

You're absolutely correct.

And if you do the arithmetic around this the mass and you see what the difference in terms of what prices could be at a four and a half percent inflation rate versus a three percent inflation rate in twenty years time, the difference is remarkable.

You know, you're talking about prices turning out to be some thirty forty percent less than they will under a three percent inflation regime than under a four and a half percent inflation regime, and much more affordable for the man.

In the street, Doctor Azarjamin, thanks so much, Director and the chief chief econometric chief economist at Econometrics.

Well, I'm sure you have a view on whether this is the right thing economically and the right I suppose political strategy really by the Reserve Bank to just go ahead and effectively do it.

They're doing it legally, I suppose, well, they must be doing it legally actually if you think about it, but it is still quite a unilateral decision to use I pause word A double one a three h seven two two one four four six five six seven.

What's up Stephen on seven two seven oh two one seven o two.

Well, I don't know how you feel that twenty one minutes after six this Thursday evening, but I'll tell you how I feel.

I have a not in my stomach about what I think is going to happen in the next few hours coming out of Washington, what kind of tariff the US President Donald Trump is going to charge us.

I mean you might have heard the DT.

I see Minister Parks now.

He's talking to seven out twos Bongani Bingua this morning and he confirmed in fact, we have sent a new sort of enhanced proposal to Washington.

So there are those difficulties, but we haven't to navigate a last minute proposal that's enhanced from the proposal the tally given, and to tell the truth, it's wait and see it.

And we are in the same boat as many other countries.

I'm in discussion with well list in many other countries that are said pretty much saying we're on the same point.

Bongani benguees to Part Style this morning.

Wilf Browdie is a manager of Agber's Fruit.

Wilf, good evening.

I mean, if tariffs stay where they are thirty percent into the US and the not in my stomach suggests that might be the sort of number.

What impact does that have on our ability to import food into the US.

Well, thanks, thanks to you, and thanks very much for having me on the show.

Yeah, thirty percent is really an extreme number for for exports.

It's it's effectively a market killer, so to speak.

It's just impossible to split that margin between importers, retailers, wholesalers and consumers.

It's impossible for the growers and decide to absorb that that cost differential and logistics companies are not going to go for discount or the shipping lines and so realistically there's no way to continue.

You will see the smaller exporters will drop off, then followed by those that are very much focused on the US, and after let's say about one season, you would see it start to fall away dramatically.

Unfortunately, sure.

I mean, I know at one point you were speaking to your colleagues in the US.

The idea essentially was they would export fruit here during our off season, you would export fruit there during their off season.

Any traction with that, well.

It's something that the International Fresh Produce Association actually put forward back in April, late April, when the first soldo or the tariff war kicked off, and they said, why do we exempt fresh produce, you know, from all countries that are involved in trade of the US, the same way the clinical minerals have been exempted, and then specifically in our situation, it's a very logical solution because it is counter seasonal.

I mean, if we were not supplying the Americans into this in the in the off season, somebody else would be.

So it's not really.

Something one can hold against us in terms of the trade deficit, because it wasn't us, it'd be someone else.

It's just nature at work there, and we ually enter and exit very neatly in between the seasons, and we attempt to do that without friction with our American counterparts and suppliers in the US.

Maybe it's not about trade, wolf maybe it's about something else.

Lots of conversations about accessing other markets.

I mean, I'm sure we'll try and get more fruit into China.

I'm sure our friends in Spain will try and do what they can to stop us importing more into the EU.

Are there any other places that you're looking at?

A very very difficult situation for you and many many other countries right now, many many of your colleagues in other countries.

Well, this is the thing, you know, we we obviously now making culculations as to where I mean such as growth associations extremely capable in terms of how they manage the market access they ship into you know, dozens and dozens of countries.

But each country has its own particular speck in terms of fruit, its own consumer preferences, even down to the color of the fruits, the size of the fruit, and the prices are usually stable where they're are.

So if you introduce a sudden searge of fruit to destablize the prices for your existing exports that go there, as well as all your competitors, so you really then set a price worn in place.

And we don't want to destroy the value that we have in the EU markets.

Where any are other markets who we actually are and in terms of new markets, you know, we were establishing foot tolls and and expanding into to to some of the Asian markets, but you know, it takes a while to build a consumer awareness and and and retail pipelines, solution network, et cetera.

So it's early days.

For Asia, it's even early days.

And to some extensions in at least and Africa, there's some tickets of citrus, but not not the points that their grains go.

So yeah, it's very problematic.

And then at the same time you quite try to trigger to scramble from another half a dozen such as suppliers to also enter their fruits into other markets.

So as it goes, this this delayed and shipping so deadline, so first of August has been quite helpful to get the bulk of the harvest across to the US.

But what happens next season remains to be seen.

And will I mean, if tariffs stay at thirty percent, we lose a lot of jobs in your industry, right.

Yeah, it's well, it's quite a it's a bit of a moving number because a lot of variables.

It depends whether the grower was exclusively growing for the US.

It depends whether he or she also has managed to find alternative markets arrangements, or perhaps they're go introducing the Brazilians, who are very big in juice, have had some setbacks recently in the juice prices have been very good last few years, so there are some options and end of the day, people will want to keep their skilled staff in place.

So we're really hoping that the variables managed to sort of balance it out.

And like I said, it's you know, the season ends late September early October going to the US, so the closer we get to that date, the less the media risk is.

But going forward, yeah, it's a problem.

It's going to be an enormous scramble happening between ourselves and our colleagues and DTRC to try and do diversification of markets and enter into new markets.

And it's going to be at a very fast but careful exercise to try and get rice.

It's quite problematic, especially because the cuist industry has an expansion plan in place to go from what they are currently on ab one hundred and seventy four million cartons per year to about two hundred and sixty million in the early twenty thirties.

But we do hope that there will also be opportunities in East Asia for ptas FTAs somewhere down the line.

We just got to survive this next say, twelve to twenty four months.

Well tough times, Wilf Browdy, thanks very much, indeed, manager of agbus Fruit the money show the market twenty eight minutes after six and news bulletin for you in a couple of moments appeared three Griddling Hayes's founder at in your Capital Advisor is p three.

Good evening, So the interest rate cut widely expected, although the US didn't cut rates last night.

Good evening, and thanks Aul for chilling.

Yeah, so we normally tend to follow the US, right, So I'll be honest, I was a bit surprised the US didn't cut last night.

I mean locally, Yes, it was widely expected that we that we cut by twenty five places points.

I think that's the trajectory and expectation for the next you know, year or two at least, or at least where we are in the economic cycle.

The US, however, did not cut, which shows that, honestly, I'm going to say it, it shows that the paraff of working because their their you know inflation slash economic economic performance remains resilient and keeps making a case for not cutting interestrates.

Generally, interst rates being cut is a sign of weaker economic activity, lower inflation, call it price pressure, consumers under pressure, you know, make life a bit easier.

Courage rate to stimulate the economy in the US, that seems to not be necessary.

And I know that we're on the receiving end of the tariffs from tomorrow.

I mean, it's about as clear as much as what's going to happen.

However, it is definitely working in the US's favor, and I think that that is evident.

Results out from Woolworths today are an update rather and this point has been made many times.

It doesn't matter what's going on in the South African economy.

People love to shop at Woolise Foods.

Yeah.

Absolutely, their market share is growing theirselves up something like ten or eleven percent when the local market is doing really well.

So they do have an earning hit.

If you look at headline and it's for share is expected to be down somewhere between twenty two and twenty seven percent, but that is on the back of a big impairment.

So we know that they've sold David Jones that there's sort of exiting the Country Road group as well in Australia.

So even though they managed to get rid of that and you know, book a small profit, there was a holding costs and all sorts of other stuff involved.

So they took about a nine hundred million just slightly over nine hundred million round empairment, which takes quite a big hit through the income statement.

However, all the other metrics is pretty good.

I mean the foods, the food business grew by eleven percent, which is not too bad.

They also saw you know, I think about a six percent increase in sort of sales in the clothing and home or fashion and home where brands or segment of the business.

So overall Willies is really.

On the up.

I mean even their Willi's Dash service is sort of a councilor something like six percent of the total sales.

Now that's up by forty one percent in terms of sales.

So people are adopting that, and I think, you know, we saw Checker sixty six to come to market first, the others have followed.

This is an increasing or growing sort of channel for them.

I think it's very convenient for the consumer as well, and I mean really just doing relatively well.

So if you look at the share price movement today, you know it started off on the back foot, obviously as that shock of the implayment comes through and the headliner infra show is down.

But as you kind of read through the stuff and you see, well, actually they're clearing and clearing out the bad stuff and there's actually quite a little bit of question quite amount of good growth under you said, the shape price ended positive on the day.

Petri Radling, Hey, I'm sorry, I'm going to have to end it there, thanks very much.

Indeed, founder at Herena Capital Advisors, Stephen gone X.

At at Stephen you will hear Tolly Kelly's sport bulletin in just a moment.

She's sitting in front of me and is that it anyway?

Never mind, I'm not going to come well anyway, so I don't know where you shop.

I'm not going to ask you on a well you can say if you like where you shop.

So will Words today had had a six month headline earning.

They had data out today right there what they call their food price movement, In other words, the amount by which their food prices went up was five point three percent, okay, which, if you think about it, is a bit above inflation, but you know, you get what you pay for.

Would you like to know what Boxes was during the same time, I feel like it's like two percent.

It was minus point six shop right during the last time I checked, last time I spoke to them, which was a couple of months ago, so it's not exactly like forf But over the year their food price inflation was one point nine SPA if I recall was two or two point one Boxer I went to go and find it, so Boxer potplay was negative point four.

So you've got at the sort of lower end of the market, negative food price inflation, and you've got Woolworths at five point three.

What does that tell us about the decisions that consumers are making if you think about it, Because Wilworths also grew the amount they're sold by around twelve percent.

I think it's also a perception that Willie's food is like top of the range, the best, so people are willing to take that financial sacrifice.

But also when you think about where a box and a shop wright are located, a lot of the times you found in the townshops, so people are thinking, I know, they get like the worst of those foods.

So also they're very much away of because we're in these societies, we make sure that we're not raising the prices where it's unaffordable for people just to get the basics.

There's so much going on with us.

I found it fascinating.

What you can make the rich pay for would be another way to look at it, because everybody needs a well, I don't know, a three bean salad or kales something, Steven, I like a three bean salad.

Touched you there?

O double one double a three oh seven two two one four four six five six seven.

Good to hear your view on that.

What up Stephen on seven two seven oh two one seven oh two?

Well comments coming through tonight, and I'm sure you have views around what the governor announced today and about where you shop SPH saying Hi, Stephen, how's at s pH?

I think the Governor and the Monetary Policy Committee are completely missing the point.

They're single handedly collapsing the economy.

They're strangling economic growth with their obsession for low inflation.

I think the extension of the governor's term was unfortunate and then Tracy on the fact that you pay well quite a lot more for food at Willies, saying I definitely pay five percent more for fruit and vegid Willies because it stays fresh for much longer than the other shops.

You're lucky if Pick and pay stuff stays fresh for two days.

I mean, I quite like that point.

But Pick and Pay and Boxer are basically having negative food price inflation.

Well, Woolworths is at over five percent.

Stephen is gone.

X at at Stephen.

Well, I made the point earlier.

If you want to know how a supermarket chain is doing nowadays, you want to count the number of motorbikes you see on the roads.

You could use who is this?

Another way, if you want to know our economy is doing, look at how much beer is being sold and I presume drunk or was that drunk?

Was that drunk?

And how's a bush reporting today?

At second quarter sales volumes are down in Brazil and China.

Weak demand there, but here SAB saying it was able to increase revenue and growth by what they describe as mid single digits.

Richard Rivert Karak is the CEO at sa B.

Richard good to talk to you again, thanks for your time.

Tell me how our economy is doing.

How much beer were you able to sell during the period.

Thanks Steven, Yeah, so we we, likeily, did report a strong set of results.

Today.

I'm managing to grow our volumes and grow our profitability, but I think overall the industry is under pressure.

We see what is happening in the country translating into into beer cells and into our call sales.

More generally, we are mature or core markets, and so if there isn't gp growth, if there isn't consumer confidence, if consumers aren't spending money, that does impact the industry.

Your bigger sort of premium brands at Corona and Stellar art Wire, they seem to still be growing.

I presume they're dragging the rest of your products along with them to those brands.

I mean, they're massive international brands.

Do they still have a lot of momentum in the South African market.

There's so much space left for them to grow, so.

Steven, Yeah, we're very pleased with the performance both of Corona and Stella.

We believe there's lots of space for them to grow.

We see as a general trend globally that the premium beer market grows faster than the overall beer market, so it's very important that you have premium brands playing within the segment of the market.

And the reality is that premium beer is something you can treat yourself with.

It doesn't cost that much, and they're undoubtedly consumer at certain times in the month or certain times of the year, we'll look to treat themselves.

And if you don't have a strong offering in that space, you lose out to your competitors.

So we've invested heavily behind these two brands and believe there's a lot of runaway for them to grow, and so we'll continue to support them.

You're beyond beer category, so other boos in a bottle or a can, they're also up those sales.

Do you see that they move pretty much in step with beer or do you see much difference from season to season.

No, So beyond there is a very interesting category.

As you say, it's almost everything else.

But if you think of brutal food or flying fish or some of the cider brands, that's what we would call beyond beer.

What we've seen over recent times is that beyond the categories in fact grown faster than beer.

Spirits and wine, and we think there are a couple of reasons for that.

One is that roughly thirty percent of South Africans have a sweet tooth and so then would rather drink something sweet than something that is dry like a beer or even dry like line for example.

And and historically there wasn't a lot of choice, but but in recent times we've seen significant innovation from from all of the competitors in that space, giving giving consumers with a sweet tooth a lot of new and different options.

And so we see beyond beer taking share from from the other categories within alcohol, and we see this trend continuing.

I presume younger people more generally are in there are drinking beyond beer.

Yeah, that's right.

So I mean obviously when you when when when younger people come into a legal drinking age and start experimenting, often that is the case that they would prefer to start with something sweeter and then possibly my grade to to to beer over time.

But undoubtedly that is part of the part of their attraction, and also the innovation and the packaging the different liquids, new and exciting things obviously appeal to those people who are still experimenting and trying to decide what their tipple is.

Unfortunately, sometimes people under the age of eighteen.

Richard, you and other companies you're also selling now quite a lot of non alcoholic beer.

How is growth in that market compared to growth and just the beer market, So.

That is growing faster than the overall market, in part because it is coming off a lower base, But we see this as a very important part of the market.

We see more and more people choosing.

To look for.

Drinks that they can drink while out, that are still sociable, but looking to moderate their drinking, and non alcohol bier plays a big role in that.

In addition to us and lots of the other beer producers have invested a lot in innovating around the quality of the liquid, ensuring that non alcolipia is it's very similar to ocolipia and I think there's been great strides in the last three to five years and we see a lot of runway here and will continue to support the segment with Castle Free and Corona Zero.

Richard, thanks very much, indeed, Richard revet Karanak as CEO of South African Breweries.

The money show is Deminocratis is brought to you by absas cib honored as the best bank for ESG in Africa and South Africa by Ural Money Awards for Excellence twenty twenty five.

Well, I don't know if you have much gold in your home or even have some gold on you.

I have a tiny little bit of white gold on me on a particular finger.

You can probably work out which one.

But the World Gold Council says the total demand for gold in value terms.

This figure I found astounding.

So total demand for gold in value terms jumped by forty five percent year on year in the second quarter of this year, and that really shows you how gold prices have changed dramatically.

Joe Cavatoni, there's a market strategist at the World Gold Council, Joe good Evening.

I know I've said this before.

I think I've said it to you before, but demand for gold is just astonishing at the moment.

You're right, Stephen.

The numbers are one hundred and thirty two billion in terms of value terms, just in terms of putting it into the context of money.

But listen across the board, risk and uncertainty, doubt about the future of economic conditions of economies.

These are all things that are weighing on people's minds, so they are definitely putting money into motion and using gold as a component of their investment portfolio.

A lot of driving Yeah, sorry interrupted, I mean, we've got a big tariff announcement.

It's going to affect South Africa, It's going to affect many countries around the world.

It's kind of moments like this, the sort of this long period that's helped to drive it quite strongly.

It really has.

I think the tariffs are speaking a lot about where the geopolitical risks and trade relations are going to start to go and develop, and look quite candidly coming from New York, the US where I'm sitting, well, we're playing this game from this perspective in a rather aggressive way, which creates that uncertainty, which creates people's challenges around managing their money.

Yeah, creates an environment for a lot more challenge.

So I think what people are seeing and hearing, and we're hearing it from masset managers as well, they're really seeing the value of gold as a safe haven in your portfolio, and allocation levels are going from one one and a half percent to two to five percent.

These numbers are getting much bigger, and we're again seeing that now.

But I want to overlook the fact as well that the big driver as well first half of the year has been central bank demand, and that is definitely geopolitical driven in terms of what's going on there.

I was going to ask about central banks because that demand from him has been one of the big factors over the last couple of years.

That's still clearly a major factor right now.

Then, I mean, that's will perhaps the most significant factor of all regarding all of this.

So this number that we refer to on a quarterly basis is coming in this quarter at one hundred and sixty six tons.

Now, that sounds down quite substantially from what we've been reporting for the last number of quarters, but what you're looking at is the last three to four years of near record or record setting flows, and quite candidly, even at one hundred and sixty six tons, which is down from the two forty tons we had in the first quarter, you're still running at a pace that's going to put us very close to record levels.

And these central banks are looking at geopolitical risks, the risks of sanctions, trade relations, homegrown economic conditions that are actually worrying and weakening dollar, weakening dollar assets, and even their own currency is weakening.

While this has been going on, the demand for gold and jewelry has been dropping.

Is that a change in taste ores just a reaction to the fact gold is now suddenly so much more expensive and well, you know, people are buying something else for someone.

That's exactly the point.

The point is that jewelry is really a consumable good, even though large markets like China and India where a large component of gold is demand driven through jewelry in a form of savings.

But also that consumer behavior this is not a big surprise for us.

We've been signaling that we would be expecting it to continue to slow down, and it is across the board no matter what region you're in, whether it's Asia, the Middle East, the US, Europe, these are all factors that are at play, and it is definitely consumer stepping back and saying is that the right place to put money to work right now?

When there are other ways to go about investing in gold and holding it in my risk portfolio.

Joe, thanks so much.

Joe Cavatoni is a market strategistic The World Gold Council.

Is on the Money Show six to eight pm.

I was watching and listening to the Constitutional Court ruling in the Incasana Makata case today.

This is about Votcom but please call me case and some of the features of the story are utterly bizarre, but it goes back to the Supreme Court of Appeal, the Constitutional Court effectively saying the Supreme Court of Appeal got it wrong.

They're not going to as the concord sort of determine the value of what he must be paid.

They'll deal with constitutional issues, but not with that.

And it struck me how much longer this has gone on for twenty years?

How much longer I think this is going to go on for On the one side, you have Vodacom and the specter of losing oh up to nine billion round, which would be an incredible amount of money, and any corporate is going to fight that, I mean literally to the corporate death right.

They're going to keep going.

And on the other side you have in Casanama Cutt And now, look, it looks like a lone person.

He looks very brave and certainly to keep fighting.

He is, but it's not just him.

He has lawyers on contingency fees, other people have invested into his mission.

Now, there's nothing wrong with any of that.

What I'm saying is, actually you've got two sides with a huge amount of money at stay.

This is going to go on and on and on.

I wouldn't be surprised if in ten years time we're still talking about this case.

I would like to ask you, though, and I'm sure you have a view, how much do you place on an idea?

How do you value an idea in financial terms?

Please call me revolutionary at the time or the MTN did do it first, and so maybe not as revolutionary as it sounds.

But how much money would you put on one single insight?

Oh double one double A three oh seven oh two two one four four six, five six seven.

We talk about governments and your data.

That's next.

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Oh two, Let's walk little eight after seven, Good morning, good eight after seven, good evening, listen to me okay, plenty coming up.

I was been following very closely the court case that happened last week.

Emma Sadler, the social media lawyer and her colleagues essentially got a ruling forcing matter the owners of WhatsApp to basically cough up the number and the sort of name, the some card details of a person who was responsible for producing some of the most hideous content there is under the sun, effectively things involving young children or younger people.

And I've been thinking to myself and wondering to myself that this might be the beginning of the end of the sort of end to end encryption that you see on WhatsApp.

I'm not saying.

That it is.

I just wonder if it might be the kind of thin end of the wedge well supermolela Zondie, I think he has a view.

I'll ask him for a bit more about that and just put it to him and see what he has to say in a moment.

But he's also looking at how British companies are trying to get a data from tech companies Small Business Focus.

Charlene Lowe, the CEO of the Beer Association of South Africa.

Realize there's a lot of beer on the program tonight, not a drop to drink care I can tell you talking about how they're trying to help micro brewers and then Investment School this evening David Shapiro.

Always a treaty of David Shapiro on the program.

I mean, how you manage your portfolio in a time of protectionism?

Really is the thing that's moving markets at the moment, isn't it?

What's going to happen tomorrow.

I'm sure you'll have a view, actually, I mean on what you're doing with your portfolio during this time.

David will take your questions too.

Good to hear from you Tonight on Double one, Double A three oh seven, O two and two one four, four six, five sixty seven All The.

Lonely Show with Stephen Crudis Live on ninety two point seven and one o six FM, streaming on the Prime Media Plus NAP.

And DStv channel eight five six.

I saw confirmation today from Nurser, the energy regulator.

They've decided there's simply no license for car powers.

It's a big victory for civil society.

I mean, I remember hearing the chief operating officer of car Powerships.

She was in Turkey, Tokya basically being very confident, Look, we're going ahead, We're going to get everything we need.

And she was just clearly wrong.

And I think there are all sorts of lessons for foreign companies who are trying to come into South Africa and bulldoze their way through.

Now.

I wonder if Elon Musk is taking some notes.

You do have to actually watch out for South Africa a little bit.

People will go to court, they'll fight you, they'll find ways if they don't like what you're doing.

If there's a legal way for them to stop you, they'll do it.

I have to say, from the very beginning, I thought this was just a bad idea, and it has its origins, i'm afraid to say, actually in a proposal or a sort of emergency power procurement program that was coming from the Energy Minister at the time.

Guendamntage no longer in charge of energy, of course, but it was a very bizarre idea and it just was never going to get off the around or in this case, into the harbor.

And I was very, very glad to see the back of car Powerships.

I wonder if they're on the same plane as Baine.

The Money Show take Thursday.

Well repeated claims that the British government is asking some of the big US tech companies, or some of the big tech companies basically if they can access their data through a back door.

That means you might think you're in a private place when in fact you're not.

See Pumalella omdies our tech experts you Puma, good evening, what do you know about which companies have asked with us a backdoor.

Access ephen So basically what it is is that it seems like it's the UK government itself, that's what it's being accused of having asked Meta and Google rather Apple and Google for this back door access to some of the data that they hold of some of the people that use the platform, or a backdoor basically for them to be able to enter through that back door and receive some of the data that they'd like to use.

What do they want to do with the data?

I mean, this is exactly what conspiracy theories, movies, WhatsApp groups are made of.

But do they not say that data is a new oil right and the one that holds us can basically control and know a lot about individuals and just about everybody is utilizing the internet and nowadays, and it's to be honesting to go back in history and a Facebook or matter when it was still called Facebook.

They did come out to say that some governments around the world would continuously ask them for certain information about certain persons of interest.

So I suppose it shuld be a continuation of that, or maybe an even an extra layer that the UK government has been accused of here of saying now no longer asking the organization itself, but having some backdoor it for it to be able to get in excess the information and then get out and close the back door when it doesn't need.

There's some big changes happening in some other countries.

There are adult websites in the UK, they're now asking the user data verification.

I know there's a lot of political pressure on them to do this, and I think that pressure will grow around the world.

Some users seem concerned about it.

Oh totally.

And the thing is there is that there really is no verification that the person who is accessing this adult content that's available on very many websites online is actually over the age of eighteen.

So what UK law is now starting to require is that people are put in their personal information that can verify that they actually are over the age of eighteen.

So you can't view on anonymity when you're visiting these adult websites anymore.

If you're in the UK, you might have to part with your own personal data to actually let them know that you hold an ID, you are over eighteen and you have a their local ID number.

Sure, I imagine if people get a backdoor into that, all sorts of things could happen.

Well, that's the thing, right because it also we only speak about a protection of private information.

In South Africa, people often use pop here to speak about the protection of themselves and where their data is, that who has access to the data and sometimes even hear about a company is being hacked as well in certain personal information adding up in the in the wrong hands or hands of people who end up selling it to the dark web sometimes.

So those are some of the wiries that if you are using these or accessing these adults websites and now you have to put in your personal information in order to gain access to it, what if someone infiltrates that information and says aha.

Steven Hortes is a frequent visitor of this particular adults website.

Yeah, no, all sorts of things can happen, as see Pomolela.

I was wondering how closely you were watching the court case last week.

Essentially an organization I think correctly when to meet and said, we know that this WhatsApp person on a WhatsApp channel is basically propagating, transmitting and distributing child pornography.

We think it should be stopped.

You want information about this person, and the court ruled in their favor.

Now, I think we have become as a world kind of used to the idea that what we say to each other on WhatsApp is end to end encrypted.

The idea is that no one can get into it, right.

I wondered if this was maybe a little chink in that armor, the beginning of the end of sort of feeling like that about WhatsApp.

Not now, maybe not in five years, but maybe over time.

I suppose this is a discussion that can start right because what happened in this case is that a corpa Floyer basically went to court right to ask for basically to foce Met had to take down and let's I did take down certain accounts that we're sharing videos and sometimes it's your videos could be shared in groups and those groups could be accessed by children.

But sometimes the videos there's the possibility that the videos could even have children in them as well, in compromising positions.

And we do know that children sometimes have been found to distribute this information amongst themselves, but sometimes it ends up in the hands of people who want to do sinister things as well and Shaitan groups.

So this group of lawyers went to courts and they basically and the ruling that was made is that it needs to be taken down for one and they also then need to start targeting the individuals that are sharing this particular information.

And yes, possibly because in the past we thought this and to end encryption on WhatsApp and other platforms that we use, but maybe the conversation should be and to end encryption perhaps if you are not believed to be sharing information that could be a threat to societ or certain sections of society like children for example.

I mean, people can celebrate nothing correctly that they're able to win this court action against Mata.

Very unlikely you'll be able to do anything against telegram or signal.

No, you probably I'm likely going to do anything around about them now, but going ahead in future, there probably would be we'd have to these companies that are allowing the distribution of pornography, and even if they don't have end to end encryption.

But then maybe this is where our laws need to come in as countries, as individual countries on what laws can be used in order for citizens of the country, especially young people, young children to be protected.

But maybe we need to start designing laws and as you say, maybe not next year, but going into the future on what can be done so we don't have to go to court.

So then be forcing these companies to do something about it.

Super Malela ont so much, our tech expert on the Money Show.

I'm fascinated by that case and what the implications may be, and I think there might actually be quite serious implications.

I think generally positive.

But I do also think over time, the sort of kind of absolute privacy you and I become accustomed to on WhatsApp may soon start to fade away.

I don't know how you feel about that.

I mean, it would have change your conversations.

I mean, if someone had to go through my conversations.

I think I'd need to buy them something just to apologize for being so utterly boring.

I mean, can you imagine having to do that.

But of course it wouldn't be a human.

It would be some bot somewhere sitting in the cloud.

First name, letter, second letter.

It's first letter a second letter I and just basically doing you know what they do.

Who knows they might also hallucinate or lucigenate or whatever it is about what they actually find.

But I wonder if this will change the way you use WhatsApp on O double one double A three or a note to your view too please on two one four four six O five six seven.

The money showed small business focus.

Well one of the most interesting segments of our smaller businesses.

If you had to do a sort of head count of smaller businesses around the country, you'd find many of them are involved in the sale of alcohol, but some are also involved in the production of alcohol.

There's been a lot of conversation around how to help smaller brewers.

Later.

Charlene loweis the CEO of the Beer Association of South Africa.

Charlene, good Evening, you mus get a lot of attention on LinkedIn with that kind of title, so thanks so much for coming in.

On the one side, brewing beer, I'm told is not that hard.

It can be done fairly cheaply.

On the other side, there is unbelievably massive competition.

How tough is it for a smaller brewer, I.

Must be honest with you, it is extremely tough for a small brewer.

In fact, it is quite labor intensive smaller brewers because they don't have the automation and the very fancy systems if you will, that the larger brewers have, and so they in fact are a big catalyst two job creation because in fact it takes a little bit more than just one person.

They don't have the systems, so you know, they point anything between ten to twenty people to brew in a small scale brewing operation.

So they could play quite a significant role if enabled and supported, to just influence a little bit more in terms of our job creation.

They also need to distinguish themselves to find themselves.

There's so much beer I'm told on the market that you actually need to work quite hard at having something new.

Absolutely, I must find though that we're finding consumer preferences in fact are improving sophisticated a little bit more.

What that means.

Meaning, you know, as you've probably heard a little bit earlier, fruits and fused beers, what sour beer, We've got beer spritters, And so the consumer palette is evolving, and so craft brewers in fact are meeting that need and that evolution, if one could put it that way.

And so we're finding that this keen interest in what they then produce.

But certainly the market isn't very friendly too.

Smaller brewers.

Distribution channels expensive.

You know, access to market is quite challenging, your coal chain, transportation and storage is expensive for an SMM brewer.

So the market is simply not set up to see them succeed.

But many of them still do notwithstanding some of those challenges.

I think it's the love for it.

But I mean, I've heard it said.

You may a point about distribution.

That beer is easy to produce, some really hard to distribute, and part of that is because it's quite big.

It's bulky, it's a liquid.

You've got to move it, it's gonna be kept in a certain way.

I mean, all of those things are quite complicated, and that's where where the real cost comes.

Oh, absolutely.

You think about the cost of glass, the cost of actually setting up a canning plant for any of these SMM brewers is quite inhibiting, and so, you know, inhibiting in an environment where these agencies that have been such shall I say established to support MS broadly, have found themselves not really playing a very big role in supporting MS within the alcohol space and in particular in the beer production space.

And so that's where we come in.

I suppose it's an association to you know, forge these partnerships to to bring a different light and picture to brewing.

And we've seen some relationships that have borne fruit where financial institutions are now seeing funding and helping scale UH is something that is quite viable, and even export markets at this point.

We've had discussions with the DT I see and there's a keenness to support smaller brewers getting their products out of the country because they see that also as a very viable way for them to gain a different type of access to an African market beyond South Africa.

Look, I mean, if we get it into the US, they'll realize immediately that it's better.

It's just getting it in.

Honestly, don't know what it is that they drink.

It's interesting, are you suggesting that some of the people who normally back smaller businesses sort of veer away from alcohol?

Basically, Yes, what we have found and the lived experience of SMM brewers within not just the brewing and beer industry, but within the alcohol industry in general, there's shyness of these government funding agencies to fund alcohol companies.

I think they viewed in a very negative light.

They're not seen as catalysts to job creation, to shall I say, revitalizing township economies and really contributing to those township economies.

But I think with the inroads that we've made and in showing a different side of beer and that economic impact of beer, we're starting to see change.

Absolutely very interesting.

I mean, one thing that's really changed, and I find this so often with smaller businesses.

In the last of the conversations I've had, is that advertising can now be virtually free.

You know, it's very easy to take a picture of Stephen enjoying his beer posted on your socials and off yougo.

I mean that must make a bit of a difference.

Oh, absolutely, And I think we play our part in supporting them as well, because I think skills development, enterprise development is extremely important.

Many of them find themselves in the alcohol industry or the brewing business, not with any level of business.

Yeah, sure education that we're going to be able to do accounts.

Absolutely or BCom degree, and so we want to professionalize them further.

We want to help them to grow, so, you know, supporting them with that type of capacitation around business skills, financial management, customer service, responsible trade, and just you know, marketing for dummies if you were because marketing budgets we all know many of them won't have and it's quite expensive.

But the digital platform does create a very viable platform for them to actually showcase their products in a very inexpensive way.

And that's the support in the capacitation that we give them as well in terms of part of our skills development program.

Do you think it's going to get easier or harder?

So, I mean, on one level you talk about, I mean it's astonishing what kind of BA you can get now, and that diversity should create more kind of market space, does maybe come with more competition.

There are some very big companies.

I mean, so what do you think is going to happen in the longer run.

I mean beer has been around for centuries.

I mean the oldest beers like five years old or something.

But do you think there's still going to be much space for these micro brewers to really grow?

I believe so, And maybe let me answer it in two parts to say, if you look at the likes of shall I say, your Darling Brewers, your Signal Hill, those are brands that have only been around under fifteen years, and yet they've taken the market by storm.

You walk into any retailer right now, you find them there.

Everyone's scared of bombs.

There we go and here we find them in the retail stores as well.

They're exporting outside of South Africa as well.

So those are some of the shall I say, good stories to tell around micro brewers that ultimately became what they are right now, household brands that we know and with the right type of backing and enablement.

I do believe if there's a space for them in the market, but also I think there's an entire African market that's available to them as well that I think they ought to be exploring to.

Not sure how well bomb Squad is going to go down in New Zealand, or dare I say France, Charline Low, thanks very much, indeed, nice to meet you, CEO of the Beer Association of South Africa.

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Well, I'm hoping, I'm not sure, but I'm hoping that by this time tomorrow we'll know what's going to happen with US tariff so that in fact, they'll have been a post on truth social or something, or some announcement somewhere, maybe on the lawn of the White House, that the US President Donald Trump will finally explain what it is we're going to have to deal with.

I mean, I have greater hopes than that.

I have hopes that in fact there'll be no tariffs at all, but I think that that, unfortunately is unlikely.

And you know how this current period really is playing havoc with share prices and some of the ups and downs, and we're used to seeing ups and downs are rarely startling.

Well, David Shapiros agreed to help us chart away through this territories veteran stockbroker and chief Global Equity strategist at Sassin David.

Good evening and thanks for giving us some time on investment school tonight.

With pressure on a subject that nobody knows anything about.

Do you know.

If there's one thing everyone's been honest about, is that no one knows what's going to happen as a very sort of base level when we have trade tensions like this, I think there's certain things that we can say.

I mean, clearly they do have a direct influence on sentiment.

People are nervous.

And one way I see that on the JAS is when there's a little bit of bad news for one hair, that chair gets rarely punished.

A little bit of good news for one chair, that chair gets really rewarded out of what I think is out of all proportion to what we normally see.

No, at the moment, we're going through enormous volatility and just if you want to refer to the j C today, and this has got nothing to do with tariff.

This has all got to do with with Powell yesterday not suggesting that rates are going to come down in the in the United States.

Say, you know, he gave no hint of reducing rates.

So what happens is the dollars got stronger, the Euros got weaker, the European markets got weaker, and we got hamlet.

We got hammered, particularly in shares like Mandy and ABM.

The're down ten percent.

So Stephen, when you talk about what ten percent, you know, that's a huge amount if you consider the value of ABM there, which is a trillion rand more than a trillion rand company, So ten percent takes a lot of So that's what we're going through at the moment.

We are going through enormous amount of volatility, and to refer to tariff, a lot of it is a around when I say uncertainly, nobody is quite sure how this is all going to play out in the end, and you know, can't lose it.

He loves to be in control, and this gives him kind of control by having everybody you know, in this kind of state.

Yeah, I mean, I can't.

I can't argue with that.

In a previous episode of Investment School, or I should say a previous lesson, we had a very interesting conversation around how to control your emotions when you're investing, how to be entirely rational.

Now, look, entirely rational people are boring, but they are very useful.

I sense that the emotion many people are seeing at the moment is almost a slight ringe of fear.

So is the investing we're seeing at the moment rational or emotional?

I mean, obviously it's a mixture of both.

But you know what I mean, No, it's it's always emotional.

Every day on the stock market, on any market, it's emotional, and it's always be like that.

And if it's not emotional, then I can't go to sleep, you know what I'm saying.

That's how you go to sleep, you know, because it's that kind of tension that keeps you alive.

But Stevehn, this is nothing unusual, and I really mean it.

I think what has changed, what has changed over the many, many years, is that money flows faster and we get information faster.

So therefore, because of so much speculation in the market, the movements are exaggerated, you know, more so than they have bey.

But the tensions are still there and the emotions have never really changed, you know, in the market.

So wait until we go in for twenty four hour a day.

Market isn't going to be an end to So you're just going to go through this kind of fuckle the whole time.

In Okay, So a moment like this, and I mean there's certain things that are pretty obvious, you know, goal by goal things like that.

Are they particular sectors or asset classes that that we should avoid just point blank I want nothing to do with And I mean we've heard from Clail in the past about how Apple is never going to be the same again, for example, as a company because of what's happened.

It doesn't matter what the US does, Apple will never be able to be what it was.

I don't know.

I mean, do you want to try that out and leave your phone at home tomorrow?

Okay, just leave it at home and go and try and survive without your Apple phone.

Well, I'm assuming you.

Have all the same thing.

Okay, go leave it at home, and you'll realize that you can't do anything.

You can't call it an uber, you can't use the pack.

You know.

It's it's such an important part of us today that even though I know it's going under some short term pressure, I mean, it's still a huge business that is over three trillion dollars not there, three trillion dollars.

I mean that's more than the jay is itself.

And it's services.

You know, it's got many, many services that it provides.

But for the meantime, yes, you know, it is going under a bit of pressure, largely on the tariff story.

You know, a lot has to do with with tariff because they don't want to they move production into India.

Mister Trump is very upset and it's putting a lot of pressure on them.

So there are there are issues like the Apple story, I think, which are being hammered by what's happening and by the teriff story.

So which asset classes do we avoid?

I mean, what do we move away from in a moment like Okay.

Well, the interesting thing is you've probably got to avoid everything because of there's so much thermoil.

But the one area that has been able to just brush the society has been the tech area.

And you know, we're going back to the Magnificent seven and we're going back to shares that extend beyond that.

So I think those because of the spending that's taken place, and because it is such a vibrant area and there's so much you know, if you looked at Microsoft's numbers yesterday, or you looked at Meta's number, they spend I mean, it goes into the multi trillion, multi billion dollars that they're spending in R and D.

And so that's one area that has given us almost an island of comfort, you know, they beg I mean, it's still the top ten accounts for about forty percent of the SMP, but that's been an area that has managed to overcome all of us.

But every all the consumer sides, the manufacturing sides, the metal sites, all of us food, everything like that is subject to two issues, you know, to to tariffs, and no one, no one can work it out.

Think about that Apple phone that we're talking about.

I mean their.

Components from all over.

The casing comes from one country, the screen comes from another country, the battery from another country.

So when you put it together that, you know, and you're trying to work out what the tariffs are going to be, it creates huge complications.

And I think that's what so many countries are going through at the moment, or so many industries not working out, not understanding how this is eventually going to play through.

So okay, we I mean, you can obviously put money into the Magnificent seven from here in various ways.

But if you're looking for South African stocks in a moment like there's some kind of thinking, you still want the companies that have a bit of growth in them, that have been doing very well, have a strong consumer base, and immediately sort of come to you know, just off the top of my head, Cappy Tech and shop right, because those would be yes, like everything else, they'll be affected.

They represent all of society in some ways.

Actually, but there's still growth there in that case is still quite strong.

You're right, you know that is an area.

The only negative area on that or the negative art it is that for example, you know, if we're going to if first of all, if there are tariffs, I'm going to I'm going to be on the side that we're not going to pay tariffs.

You know, Trump's going to relent and he's going to extend it.

So he's done that with Mexico.

Now he's done that, you know, another ninety days.

David Shapiro is hard attacker.

Yes, yes, so I think he will back down.

You know, I don't think his case is that strong.

But I don't think they'll say, Okay, we'll extend it for another ninety days or whatever it's going to be.

So I don't think this is going to happen tomorrow.

You can come back with me.

You won't find me.

You won't find me.

But I mean, but I think he's doing that all the time, and he has done it ever since April.

And that's why the markets have been so steady and so firm because believing that at the end of the day it will come down to the tenth and fifteen percent.

But you're right where if it does hurt us, and that's the problem.

It's going to hurt your consumers.

It's going to hurt your businesses.

So even indirectly, places like Capiti will take and not but not directly, You're right, you know there's no terriffs going to hurt them as well, but it will affect the underlying economy and through that maybe the capitext will will take it off.

But you you know, you've identified an area of a market that won't fight some of the financial areas.

You know, property companies like that will be able to overcome it.

And we've seen property very strong here as rates come down, our long rate to come down, and it's one sector that is actually holding up and doing pretty well at the moment.

After a really torrid few years.

I mean, my temptation, I suppose, and I'm not the expert you are, so let me put it to you and you can tell me if I'm wrong.

Would actually be to say, you know what, I'm just going to buy the JC.

I'm just going to just put it in an index fund and and go from there because actually that would give me a little bit of gold and money and give me a little bit of platinum.

But actually, over time, yes I will, I will not make as much as I could if I if I was actively investing.

But actually, as things stand, I'm just going to have to take those knocks but up for long term growth.

And that's how I do it.

That's fun, You're absolutely, You're right.

It's a great strategy at a time where you don't know who the winners are going to be, and it's very difficult to sort that out.

So it's not a bad strategy because what happens is the good companies kind of float to the top in any case, So you know, even if you look at the S and P five hundred, it's made up.

If you buy the S and P five hundred, you are buying those top ten businesses.

You know, in fact, you're buying probably the top twenty out of all five hundred make up forty percent.

But even on the JAC, if you look at JC and you buy the index here, you're getting companies life process I think, which, ah, yeah, that's that's kind of you know, Carr proof is nothing.

The BHP, ABN, the ABN.

They're the only problem with ABM there is people are drinking lest it's got lovely to do with terrorists and so on.

Richmond Naspur's blink call all of those businesses as well.

So you're not on the JAC.

It's not a bad strategy at all.

It's twelve minutes to eight.

You with The Money Show.

David Shapira on Investment School this evening, the chief global equity strategist at Sassin.

How on earth do we survive?

I don't know the next year, never mind the next twenty four hours.

The Money Show with Debinocrotis is brought to you by absas CIB honored as the best bank for ESG in Africa and South Africa by Your Money Awards for Excellence twenty twenty five.

The Money Show, Investment School.

How on earth do you survive?

What's going on?

In the world at the moment.

David Shapiro, the chief global equity strategist at Sassin with us and of course those big announcements we expect tomorrow.

David, being more optimistic than I am, suggests that in fact, Trump is going to chicken out.

David, professional portfolio managers.

I mean, how do they adjust their strategies when we see global trade being upended like this?

What do the pros do?

It's not easy, you know, and that's why you're getting so many different differing opinions, simply because people can't see through this.

We say that we're going to look for good quality companies, and we're in a particularly interesting area at the moment because we're right in the quarterly report season.

But what does happen and what comes through as we're seeing with ABM bed's results, as we've seen with I was looking at Ferrari, today's excellent company.

But what is happening is those companies are taking precautions and being very careful about what lies ahead.

So it does play through, you know, and that's why it's we don't know.

You can't forecast, so we are in a very difficult position.

As I said, as I said earlier on you know, European markets took a hammering today simply because the dollar got stronger.

But everything is connected, you know what I mean, It is a connection.

You'll eventually find that a lot of this is related to tariffs.

Why does the dollar get stronger?

Of course because Powell doesn't understand inflation, he doesn't know what's going to happen, doesn't produce interest rates, the dollar gets stronger.

So there's always those kind of connections that play through to markets and make it very, very difficult to read.

There's just one thing that I wanted to with South Africa.

We pay massive terriffs.

You know, we are big tariff payers.

You know, the consumers here where it's going to hurt is on our experts side.

You know, whether it's grapes, whether it's narchies or citrus foods, or whether it's our wines and so on.

You know, that's where it's going to hurt.

Particularly Trump chicken out on the metals, you know, and it is not subject today.

He withdrew on copper, remember the fifty percent copper, So he is you know, he's under a lot of pressure and and I think that's why the markets are a lot steadier than everything, so and I think he will check him out.

I would imagine that at some point, with all of this volatility, people will be looking at each other's strategies and someone will work out, or a group of people at the same time, more likely the best sort of approach, and then everyone will kind of the best follow the best sort of approach.

I mean to an extent, is that what's likely or could that happen?

I don't know, you know, there's just so many different opinions that it's very difficult to determine what the best approach is.

Where the warriors are are in emerging markets, because you know, the companies haven't got the power to punch back at club and and a lot of them are basic, you know, exporters of consumer sorry of metals and mining goods.

So I think it's under concerned about that.

And we have seen a lot of emerging marks, particularly Africa, coming under quite a bit of pressure on tears of what this might, you know, might be for the global economy, particularly Africa retail investors.

I mean, can they really protect themselves from all of us?

Is it something that actually the institutions are going to have to manage more than retail investors.

Retail investors maybe are just going to have to sort of pick a line and stick to it and hope for the best.

The retail investors in South Africa are having a wonderful time.

There's so much speculation here, movements in either direction.

Very little actually related to worries about you know, about tariff.

A lot has to do with the underlying economy.

And if you go outside of our you know, the top stocks, there's there's plenty of action and still very positive you know views on the market.

And each day we've seen big, big gains, and today was one of the where we saw platinum chairs and gold shares under a lot of pressure and some of the smaller businesses.

But generally there's quite a bit of speculation here and I always I look at this every day because don't underestimate the intelligence of the retail investor.

They do a lot more learning, I mean, a lot more reading and of various stute people, and it's sometimes paid to look and see what they're.

Doing and follow them, I mean, and also I suppose a lot more research in terms of what different companies are doing.

They spend a lot more time on each chair.

Yes, oh yeah, and today you know you've got you've got the help of chet GPT of your pro pilots of what's which can help you in determining and going through a lot more than you could.

So there are a lot of smart people out there.

And it's one thing that I do every day.

See what's the retail investor doing?

Where you know what's going up, what's going down?

Why but the company you know, just to it is a difficult time.

It's a very very difficult time.

And we've been through difficult times ever since they started to raise rates back in the end of twenty one.

You know, the global economy still very uncertain.

David, as someone who I followed for many, many, many years, I remember about six months ago you and I were talking and you were quite optimistic.

Now this was before the sort of Trump tariff shock, right, and the reason that you were so optimistic was that interest rates were now coming down.

It might actually have been on the day of our first cut also, AI was going through the roof and still is, and you were very optimistic.

And the reason that I've sort of clung to that a little bit, if I may say, is because once the trade tariffs a sort of sorted out one way or another.

The reasons for some of that underlying growth, so there'll be impact on inflation might still be there.

And I presume there are still if you look at AI, for example, some reasons to think that there might still be room for some of that optimism.

Or if the trade picture just sort of you know, if you're right and it is a taco trade tomorrow and and Trump does checking out, actually there is still quite a lot of room for optimism in some way.

Be kind to us here, David, No, we are.

I'm very bullish on the second half of Vivie.

No, it's get you know, rates will come down.

We had an indust rate cut.

Now America will follow.

There will be.

Pressure on Pow.

You know, he's playing hardball at the moment, and simply because economic data in the US is very strong.

So we will get rate cuts, whether whether it's September or not, you know, in the next few months or certainly year, we'll get rate cuts coming down.

But in the meantime, this AI story, and I'm just urging people to look at the results that have come through, as I say, just go read Metas results or Microsoft and hear what they have to say and how much they spend it.

This is not slowing down, and the monetization is starting to happen.

In other words, they see people use it and the benefits will flow through.

So we will be a lot higher by the end of the year than we are now.

Sure, okay, and that means that ready there's a lot of value to be made if you manage yourself properly.

Oh yeah, it's not difficult.

You don't need to be too clever to bar good company.

Just average people like me.

Can do it.

David Shapiro has always really enjoyed talking to you.

Thanks so much, Really appreciate it time.

David Shapiro on Investment School this evening.

Always I did tell you that it was going to be a treat He's the chief global equity strategist at SASMIN.

I really particularly like the sort of optimism that he still has after everything that we've been through over the last little while.

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Well you heard David talking about Powell keeping rates on hold.

The US President Donald Trump again very angry with him as a resultant airing that a little while ago.

Earlier today, Well, US markets still of course looking at that data from Meta and from Microsoft that came out yesterday.

The Dow Jones, though down point two three percent, FINANCEDAC heading up half a percent in the S and P five hundred ero point one five percent.

At the moment, I don't know how the timeline is going to work from here, literally sort of tweaked by tweet from President Trump in terms of what kind of tower if we're going to get.

I do know that you and I will be having a conversation about it tomorrow.

I look forward to thanks for being with us on the Money Show at eight o'clock