This is Cobalt barn Degree, and you're listening to Switched on the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg and EF.

Hydrogen was once expected to power much of the clean energy transition, but progress has been slower than many had hoped.

Costs remain high, policy support uneven, and global production forecasts have fallen sharply, now sitting at just five point five million tons by twenty thirty, half the estimate we made in twenty nineteen.

Even so, governments and companies are pressing ahead.

Europe is pushing ambitious but complex targets, the US is betting on blue hydrogen through generous subsidies, and China is scaling rapidly on green So as different regions forge their own paths, the question now is whether hydrogen can find its footing and deliver at scale.

On today's show, I'm joined by Martin Tangler, beanef's head of hydrogen Research, to discuss some of his team's recent notes, including Hydrogen Supply Outlook twenty twenty five, Blue Who Takes the Lead, and Ammonia Supply Outlook twenty twenty five Tenders Shape Demand.

BNF clients can find these notes along with our other hydrogen research by heading to BNF go on the Bloomberg terminal or BNF dot com.

If you'd like to learn more about how BNF approaches strategic research on the energy transition, including developments in commodity markets, trends across different sectors, and the cross cutting technologies shaping the future.

You can find more information on BNF dot com and if you'd like to speak with a member of our team about becoming a client, email US at sales dot BNF at Bloomberg dot net.

So let's explore the outlook for clean hydrogen and what it will take for the sector to turn ambition into action.

Well, today we have a very special guest on the Switched On podcast.

We have Martin Tengler, who is the head of hydrogen Research.

Welcome Martin, Hi Colbat.

Hydrogen has a special place in my heart because about five years ago, well maybe a bit more, Martin and I together started be in e F coverage of hydrogen.

So it's wonderful to dive back into the topic and spend some time understanding what's the latest in the sector.

So, Martin, if we start off by just sort of taking stock of where hydrogen is at for years, hydrogen has been talked up as being the Swiss Army Knife of the energy transition, of having this enormous potential in multiple sectors.

But in the last sort of view or two, it really seems like that bubble of inflated expectations has burst.

Is that where we still are what's the latest status?

So the hydrogen sector right now, to be honest, is not doing too well.

And let me pick you up actually on that Swiss army knife analogy, because that's quite topical and you hear it everywhere.

There's two camps, two interpretations of this Swiss army knife theory.

The first one is just what you said.

It's something you can use for everything.

You can use it as a fuel, you can use it as a chemical feedstock.

Pretty much.

You could run a whole economy on hydrogen in theory.

But this is the second camp.

I'll tell you that's true.

But just like with a Swiss army knife, in practice, there's very often a better tool than a Swiss army knife.

So for example, would you cut your bread with a Swiss army knife or would you get a proper knife for your bread, or would you cut your hair with the little scissors on the Swiss Army knife.

Or would you rather get a clipper.

So there's these two camps about hydrogen, and I think I certainly belong into the second camp, where there's clearly some very very important uses for the Swiss Army knife, where it is the best tool, especially if net zero is the thing that we are aiming to achieve.

And this is probably the main problem is we are at this moment not headed, at least in my humble view, towards a twenty fifteen net zero scenario, which we had been f model and in which we would see a lot of hydrogen demand.

So right now the problem is we're not heading towards at zero as fast as we should probably if we want to hit it by twenty fifty.

As a result, we're not seeing nearly as much demand for hydrogen because hydrogen is expensive.

It's more expensive than most of the other technologies we use right now that are fossil based.

If we're going to use hydrogen that's more expensive than these fossil based technologies, we need something to breage that cost gap.

For the moment.

That would need to be policy, and that policy has not been as strong in most places as have many developers without hope.

So, Matt, you mentioned in there that there are a couple of good uses for hydrogen.

What are your favorites?

Where does it have the most potential.

They're really the same ones that we identified already back in twenty nineteen when you and I started with a couple of our colleagues as well this hydrogen team at BNF.

The most obvious ones are where we already use hydrogen today.

We use gray hydrogen, well one hundred million tons of it to produce things like fertilizers, which is something we really really need.

We want to sustain a population of eight billion people and growing.

But we use gray hydrogen.

We could replace that with green hydrogen, at least to some extent.

We use hydrogen for oil refining.

Is kind of a funny thing because we could decarbonized oil refining.

But in a world that's headed towards net zero, you would think there's not going to be as much use of oil, but there will still be some and a whole bunch of other chemicals, methanol being the most important one.

So that's your current uses of gray hydrogen.

We're replacing that gray hydrogen with green or blue or clean decarbonized hydrogen makes a lot of sense.

Then you've got news sectors where hydrogen has not been used to date where it could be used in the future, and the ones that we model at B and EF as being the most likely to adopt hydrogen in that net zero scenario the more we get to that net zero scenario.

Those are shipping, aviation, and steel production.

Now, shipping in aviation would not use hydrogen in its form of H two, They would use it in the form of another chemical in shipping, most likely methanol or ammonia, which are molecules that contain hydrogen, And in the aviation most likely in the form of kerosene that's been made with green hydrogen, even though that is very expensive and there's probably cheaper ways to actually decarbonize ITSH.

So those are the promising use cases today, but development so far has been slow.

So your team has just published the Hydrogen Supply Outlook twenty twenty five, and in that you've mentioned there's an overall slowdown in clean hydrogen deployment.

So what is the status of things and what are the real headwinds that the sector is basic?

So the outlook that we published is an annual outlook.

Think of it as a forecast or our best guess of what is going to happen in the next five years in the clean so that's green and blue hydrogen market, mostly focusing on the supply side, on the producers and the projects that produce this hydrogen.

To give you some high level numbers, first, this outlook we just published is certainly small then the outlook we published last year because of some negative policy developments in the meantime, such as significant reduction in green hydrogen tax credits in the US.

But that's not the only policy change that has impacted our forecast.

So expectations to continue to get revised down.

They do continue.

We kind of have this joke running at our team, which you know, every time you look at being of solar forecast, we always seem to get it wrong because the solar market always exceeds our expectations.

With hydrogen, so far, it's been the other way around, and every forecast we've published so far, we found ourselves revising it downwards the next time around.

So that's been the reality so far, which doesn't mean there is no role.

It doesn't mean there's.

No hydrogen being used today.

There is is just the expectations that were set back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen by the industry and certain lobby groups that are still active today were perhaps too high, and once these expectations have started deflating, so have the forecasts.

And even we should eat some humble pie here, because our original forecasts when we first looked at this, we're also very high at least of the prospective potential role that hydrogen could play.

So it is you're right.

It is one of the very few elements of the energy transition where the forecast get revised down rather than not.

So it has that unwanted honor really, or that unwanted record of being a technology which is really underperforming in the transition so far.

But you know what, that actually makes it really interesting as well, because we all know that the future is going to be full of solar, full of wind, full of batteries for ellth electric vehicles.

The trends are clearly there, and they've been there for at least the past ten twenty years at least for in the case of solar.

For hydrogen, we know there will be a role for it, but it's much more nuanced than saying everybody is going to be using hydrogen, just like we say everybody's going to be using solo electricity, because you just connect your solar panels with the grid and there you go.

Everybody's using solelectricity.

Hours with hydrogen is just much more limited, but the role is important if net zero or super low emissions is what we're aiming for.

So in the next couple of years, what's our current expectation how much capacity will actually come online and how much hydrogen will be produced.

So we have right now in our forecast for twenty thirty five and a half million tons of green and blue hydrogen.

It's about evenly split, slightly more blue than green, so slightly more produced from fossil fuels natural gas, with the CO two captured at least some of the CO two captured and stored, and the rest produced through electrolysis using reneo of electricity.

So that's green.

Hydrogen five and a half million tons by twenty thirty compared to probably about half a million tons so today.

So there's still quite some significant growth to twenty thirtys just not as high as people would have hoped.

And also in terms of comparing that to a couple key numbers.

The first key number is the one hundred million tons of gray hydrogen we use today, so that's just five percent or so of that global gray hydrogen supply is going to now be supplemented with green and blue hydrogen.

When you and I started this project back in twenty nineteen, every day we just opened the news and there was a gigawatts scale project being announced somewhere in Australia, in Africa, in South America and North America, Europe, just everywhere.

And we started making this database which now has two thousand, three hundred or twenty four hundred projects by twenty thirty.

That's about seventy two million tons of green and blue hydrogen that developers want to produce, and more than two hundred million tons overall.

So there's even bigger ambitions beyond twenty thirty.

So seventy million tons or so in ambition by developers, we have about twenty five million tons or so of ambitions for twenty thirty by different governments around the world, and those five and a half million tons of our forecast, So clearly we're undershooting the expectations by governments and certainly by the developers a wide margin.

That is a very wide margin and one that I think policy makers in particular would be very disappointed to hear.

So what's going wrong.

Well, the first thing that's going wrong is the cost right.

One of the mistakes that we made that you alluded to early, is we forecasted a bit too much hydrogen, probably about twice as much as we do now in our new New Energy Outlook, in that outlook we published in twenty nineteen together, and that was because we expected costs of green hydrogen, especially green hygien to go down much faster than actually happened in practice, and that we now expect to happen in practice as well.

So higher costs means that gap between green and non green hydrogen or green hygien and fossil fuels is larger and is going to stay larger for longer.

What do you need to fix that.

You need deployment, And how do you get that deployment.

You need incentives from the government.

Right now, that's really the only way to get large deployment of green hydrogen and blue hydrogen.

There's only a very limited number of places where these incentives exist, and even in the places where they do exist, they're by far not perfect.

And I'll start with Europe because that is the biggest market for green hydrogen.

European Union has some very ambitious goals ten million tons of green hydrogen production within the EU in twenty thirty, so that's already twice our global volume for twenty thirty I've just mentioned, and another ten million tons of imports from the rest of the world.

Lots of ambition, and Europe has a relatively strong policy framework to try and deliver those codes, doesn't it.

It does.

So the thing that Europe has is demand signed incentives.

So, like I've said, demand is low because cost is high.

How do you fix that?

Well, you need to increase demand through policy.

You can do two things.

You can either give some carrots to producers or users, which the European Union is also doing, and you can also use some sticks.

And in Europe these sticks are mostly in the of quotas and the carbon prices.

And the quotas work simple.

You just say, if you are an industrial company like an ammonia producer or refinery, then by twenty thirty you're going to have to use a certain amount of green hydrogen.

And if you don't you're going to have to pay a penalty.

Or if you're an airline or if you're an air aviation fuel supplier, you're going to have to deliver a certain amount of ekerosene or kerosine made with green hydrogen.

If you don't, you're going to have to pay a fine.

And those are policies that do exist in the EU, but their enforcement has turned out to be a lot more complicated than people would have expected or developers would have hoped.

So.

Within the case of the quotas for industry, which are called RED three, which stands for the renew Blandagy Directive, those quotas are implemented on the members state level.

You have twenty seven member states in the European Union, vast majority of whom have yet to legislate these quotas in their domestic law, which means they're good companies based on the refiners and the ammonia producers based and those markets are not going to rush into producing or using this very expensive greenigen if they're not sure that they're actually going to have to, and they're at the same time lobbying, many of them are lobbying their domestic governments or all the Commission to water down or postpone these quotas.

So even though the policy exists at the European Parliament level, it's not really binding until it's been entrined in domestic law, that's right, And even then, you know the way.

I like to give one example, which is my own Czech Republic, which is where I live, is one of the few EU members states that have actually passed these read three quotas into their domestic legislation.

But there is no way in my assessment that Czech Republic is actually going to meet these twenty thirty quotas, because if you talk to any of the companies that are obligated under these quotas to start using green hydrogen, they will tell you, yeah, it's just too expensive here, and the fine that the government has said, it's probably just cheaper for us to pay the fine and hope that in the meantime, Commission water is it down anyway, that we don't have to worry for a while yet to come.

So a lot of companies just think like this, and they'd rather just pay the fines than get moving with green hydrogen because they believe and hope and lobby at the same time that this quote does will get watered down.

But that's a good indication that the hydrogen sector is just not able to supply the hydrogen at the price that policymakers are willing to support.

Yeah, that's absolutely true, and that's just the red three quote does.

And you've got another quote in the EU which is much stronger because that one is implemented on the EU level.

That's the aviation quote does the refuel EU aviation regulation where if you are an airline, you're going to have to start using by twenty thirty a very small amount is just over one percent of all of your kerosene.

Your jet fuel will have to be this E fuel made from green hydrogen, and if you don't, you're going to have to pay a fine that's twice the cost of actually using this jet fuel clean jet fuel, and next year are going to have to comply again anyway, So it's not like you've paid the fine and you're off the hook.

And yet, even with a quota like this, where you would think theoretically the willingness to pay should be almost infinite, we're still not seeing companies buying this, and we're still seeing a lot of hedging.

Still seeing a lot of lobbying the Commission that says they're not going to budge, but then we know that they're still talking to companies and we know companies are waiting, especially the aviation fuel suppliers are apparently the bottleneck from what we've heard from some of the airline companies, where they just don't see themselves benefiting from producing.

If they do and the regulation gets wodded down, then they've just produced this really expensive fuel and what are they going to do with it?

And if they don't, then they're just going to pass on then higher costs the fine onto the airlines.

So it's perhaps not the best to have put this burden on the aviation fuel suppliers in this way.

Perhaps there's a way this regulation could be improved to make it bite a little bit better.

So in Europe there's a mixture.

The sector is sort of lagging due to a mixture of the policy implementation being imperfect and not fully legislated through to the member state level, but also just that the economics are too far away for companies to comply with those incentives or o those But either the character of the sticks.

Absolutely and an example that I like to give in.

I just gave this example of the presentation in Brussels recently, is there's a lot of stars that need to align for a company to decide to sign a binding offtake agreement in Europe or anywhere else for that matter.

And then the example I like to give is this off take agreement that was signed earlier in the year between the German utility company RWE and the French refiner Total Energies.

They've signed an off take agreement for thirty thousand tons of green hydrogen per year to be supplied for fifteen years from RWE, which has a project to produce this hygien in the west of Germany in this town called Lincoln, to be supplied to the east of Germany six hundred kilometers away to a refinery in the city of Loyina that's owned by Total Energy.

So how did this happen?

Well, first you had these massive subsidies, massive carrot coming from the German government of six hundred and nineteen million euros that just think about this is crazy.

That's really really a lot of money to go to just one company to build one project, almost ten euros per every German citizen that has helped reduce the cost, based on our estimates of that hydrogen, from ten dollars per kilogram to about seven dollars per kilogram.

But seven dollars per kilogram is still a lot because Totel is probably using hydrogen gray hydrogen today that cost it about two dollars per kilogram.

So why the hell would Totel want to buy green hygien for seven But the first reason is that Germany is likely to be implementing and forcing this red three regulation that I talked, so Total will need to decarbonize its refineries.

And also there's a carbon price in Germany where refiners have to pay for every ton of COE to release during refining, but they get to triple count each time reduced if it has been reduced by using green hydrogen, and that gives totalent a very large incentive to adopt green hydrogen.

And based on our math, we think Total is probably wanting to pay about seven dollars pe kulogram for that hydrogen because of this policy, which is just about how much rwe, based on our calculations, would need to receive, including that six hunt nineteen million grant to make it worthwhile for themselves.

So that's three really really important stars.

You've got this supply side subsidy six unction and nineteen million euro subsidy to RWE.

You've got this EU regulation to decarbonized refineries worth three.

You've got a carbon price in Germany.

And the final piece is the midstream because these places are six hundred kilometers apart, and the the only way you're going to deliver that hydrogen from the west to the east is through a pipeline, which the German government is now supporting.

But if this pipeline does not end up getting built, then no matter which what price these two companies agreed on the hydrogen, it's just not going to be delivered.

So having a midstream network, a pipeline and storage network to deliver this hydrogen, to store the hydrogen is also going to be absolutely essential.

And not all places are developing that.

Germany is one of the few that is.

But also there's likely to be some delays and there's probably going to be the eight or nine thousand kilometers that Germany is planning today, it's probably going to be scaled down eventually quite a lot because of the current government, the new government.

So Martin, let's we've only got about ten minutes left, so let's try and move quickly through some of the other countries and do a round of the ground.

So Europe sluggish.

What's the situation like in the United States where the Trump administration has has not been very friendly towards green hydrogen?

Are they more positive towards blue hydrogen or hydrogen made with carbon captrine storage?

Yeah, So in that outlook that we have of five and a half million tons by twenty thirty, US is the biggest producer with about two million tons.

Europe has about one point two million tons, and China also has one point two million tons.

So why is the US the biggest?

It is because it's of its support for blue hydrogen and because of relatively strong fundamentals for blue hydrogen.

So after the Trump administration came in, there was a lot of uncertainty what's going to happen with the really generous tax cred its passed by the Biden administration.

The tax cit is for green hydrogen got scaled down quite a bit, but for blue hydrogen they did not.

And blue hygien projects are quite big.

They produce hygroen that's much cheaper than green today, and there is demand for that blue hydrogen or blue ammonia, because the US is most likely to be putting that hydrogen, converting it to ammonia, and putting the ship and exporting it to the rest of the world, to all the places which have some demand side incentives like Europe which has a carbon price, like Japan which wants to burn ammonia with coal in their power plants, and the same goes for Korea, although they they now appear to have potentially scaled down.

On that policy.

So that's why we see the US as being the biggest producer.

The top five projects in our forecast are all US blue hydrogen projects, so.

The Trump administration is continuing to have a supported posture towards blue hydrogen.

Yes.

Next, if we look at Japan, which you mentioned has the hydrogen sixty tracking there, Japan one of the earliest proponents and longest running proponents of a hydrogen economy as it used to be called.

So Japan has a demand side incentive for companies to use hydrogen.

They've put about nineteen billion dollars on the line or so, so it's a significant amount of money.

We think most of this will end up being used for co firing, hydrogen co firing ammonia, probably blue ammonia with coal in Japanese co fired power plants, which is really expensive and certainly not something that BNF projects to be the most effective way of hydrogen in at zero scenario or in any other scenario.

So for Japan, if you're a supplier to Japan, there's still some money to be made right here a US blue hygien producer, and Japanese are willing to pay you.

We're going to deliver them the ammonia because there's a business case for you.

So for the suppliers, this is great for the Japanese taxpayers.

I think this is terrible and sad thing about Japan is if they were the first country to even have a hydrogen strategy back in twenty fourteen when very few others were actually talking very much about hydrogen.

But the problem is that the Japanese, if you rank the possible uses of hydrogen from the best ones, most effective ones that we've talked about, like ammonia and the royal refining, et cetera, to the least effective ones which include cars and ammonia co firing, the least competitive ones, the Japanese have been picking from the bottom.

They've been picking all the wrong uses, and we've written about that so many times at B and EF and unfortunately that doesn't seem to have changed, and we still see the Japanese carmakers doubling down on their efforts to improve with the Toyotami Rai hydrogen fuel cell car to start producing trucks fueled by hydrogen at the time when in the rest of the world most companies are actually giving up on it or have given up on it already.

So the sad thing about Japan is that they had this opportunity to be a real leader in the hydrogen sector, but they just picked all the wrong users, all the uneconomical uses, and they will still be using some of it, but it's just going to be really expensive and I would certainly not call them a leader at this point.

So a low value use of a very expensive fuel and not a recipe for success, unfortunately for Japan.

And Korea another strong proponent of hydrogen, but just recently had to cancel an auction for procurement of hydrogen.

So what's the status there, Yeah, the idea was the same.

Korea is actually quite similar to Japan.

They want to burn ammonia with coal or wanted to.

But you may have noticed Korea has at some political turmoil this past year with a coup and a new president being elected.

And this new president, President Lee, is much more pro renewable and anti coal, so he now has a target to get rid of coal from the power system by twenty forty which is inconsistent with some of the previous policies passed to support co firing of ammonia with coal by twenty forty three.

So they canceled the auction, probably because of this reason, but no reason was actually given, and there's going to be an auction announced by the end of the year according to the government.

We just don't know what kind of an auction it will be, whether they'll shorten the limit that the duration of the support, whether they just shift to green hydrogen as opposed to ammonia, or green as opposed to blue.

There's a couple of theories we just wrote about that, but it's clear that Korea might be moving away from this ammonia co firing faster than Japan.

Another use of hydrogen which had some optimism was for shipping.

As you would earlier mentioned the International Maritime Organization recently just had their mating and deciding on the future of day in sen tives and goals for use of clean fuel.

So how was that shaken out for hydrogen?

Yeah, so there was a vote on the seventeenth of October where the members of the International Maritime Organization, which pretty much every country in the world have, voted to postpone a proposal to establish a carbon tax on the use of fossil based fuels in shipping, which would have forced the use of some cleaner fuels, starting probably with LNG, but moving to things like methanol and ammonia that we talked about earlier.

So question is the vote was postponed by a year.

Is it going to get any better next year?

I think that's unlikely because the vote was postponed mostly because of pressure from the US from President Trump, who was very vocal about wanting countries not to vote for this proposal and was threatening tariffs if you are a country that voted for it.

So lots of countries ended up voting for this.

Postpone meant of the vote.

So what's going to happen next year?

Ask me, Probably there's going to be another boat to postpone, which could happen for a couple more years in a row.

So that's unfortunate because that could have been a source of demand.

But there is still a demand source for shipping fuels lead shipping fuels, which is the EU.

So there's the fuel EU Maritime regulation just the third important source of demand for green hydrogen coming out of the European Union.

And there are companies that are applying to supply these fuels based on this regulation, and there's probably going to be some fuels delivered based on that regulation.

So that's for ships calling at European ports.

So now if we pivot to looking at some of the good news stories, some of the chips that are landing in the favorable direction for the hydrogen industry, there's been some promising results for ammonia tenders in India, I believe.

Yeah, so India is a really interesting place because India has managed to start producing electrolyzers, so that's the machines to produce green hydrogen very cheaply or more cheaply than most other places.

And they also have very very low costles with actually a quite a high capacity factor sixty seventy percent capacity factor for what they call complex renewables or complex renewables auctions, which which has which have been going on in India, and that's resulted, together with some very generous subsidies from the government and probably a little bit of coaxing as well, that's resulted in the lowest price for green ammonia that we've seen anywhere on the planet so far, below six hundred dollars per ton for green ammonia, just still more than the Indian companies pay for gray but not that much more.

They pay about five hundred dollars.

So there's some implicit subsidies in there that are making the price that low.

It's not really a true market price, no it's not.

So there's definitely there's a grid free waiver which is very important, so they can connect to the grid without paying for the transmission of the electricity.

There's subsidies for capex and for operation of the electoralizer.

Also state subsidies on top of that, so there's a lot of support in the off shore, so.

Variety of layers.

But still India is still the country with the most favorable fundamental building blocks for hydrogen economics, from low cost electoralizers to cheap and abundant renewable power.

And if any country is leading the energy transition today, it is China's China embracing hydrogen and investing in hydrogen with the same enthusiasm and scale that it does in wind and solar.

Yes, it is actually much more so now than at the beginning of this year.

So China has already.

Is the biggest producer of green hydrogen today globally, the biggest producers of electoralizers globally, and that was despite having no policy or very little official policy support for the use or production of green hydrogen.

But now the government has come out with a number of policies.

Now we count at these five really important policies.

Some of them are sticks forcing state owned companies and provinces to use green hydrogen.

So we expect, actually there's going to be some important developments in China.

At the same time, China is making it easier to export electoralizers and hydrogen and methanol and all these derivatives of hydrogen by aligning standards with Europe, for example.

So previously the challenge was if you buy a Chinese electoralizer, it says there has a certain efficiency, you actually plug it into the grid in Europe and you realize, oh, no, the efficiency is actually about ten percent worse.

Why is that because the Chinese used to define it differently.

Now they define it the same as the Europeans to well, So there's many different things that we're just writing another piece that's looking at a twenty percent support for CAPEX for all these green hygen green steel projects.

So China, long story short, we see as being the second biggest producer of hygrogen that outlook we talked about by twenty thirty one point two million tons, all of it green.

And now this enhanced support from the Chinese government for all I know, maybe next year's outlook we'll actually be revising upwards for China.

So there you have it.

The rivalry between the US and China extends into the hydrogen sphere, with the US backing the blue hydrogen carbon capture root horse and the Chinese backing the green hydrogen horse, with an interesting battle yet to come.

So if anybody's going to make green hydrogen work, it looks like it it would be the Chinese.

So perhaps not all these lasts for hydrogen, yet there is some chance of the costs falling and fullcast being revised up Martin.

Thank you very much for johnn Us.

Thank you, Cobin.

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