Episode Transcript
This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas j J zacherfon.
Speaker 2What's up Everyone.
Speaker 1It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten twenty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
Speaker 2Thanks for tuning in.
Speaker 1There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans.
New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more.
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions.
The Crown is yours gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, n y.
In Connecticut call eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus and most states.
Eligibility to stretch supply ends December thirty first.
See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions.
We had our typical hits and misses on last week's Sleeper Show.
It was one of the worst quarterback streaming weeks that I can remember.
JJ McCarthy, Michael Pennix, and Gino Smith were all horrible, and that's on me.
They were terrible picks.
I did talk up Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence.
They were good, but I should be well over fifty percent with quarterback streamers.
Elsewhere, though, things were actually decent.
There were a lot of eight to ten point performances like from Hollywood Brown, Harold fannin Chickakon Quo had seven and a half PPR points, Kaisham Boudi, Dylan Samson.
But there were some really good hits in there.
Elic I am Inner scored about sixteen PPR points.
We saw the same from Cooper Cup.
Juwan Johnson got it done and so did my guy bay Shall Touton and the defensive streamers were really good last week too, specifically the Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks one of the easiest positions to get right.
So I do feel good about having a better Week three than Week two.
Speaker 2Let's dig in.
Speaker 1We'll kick things off by looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll go with a quarterback that I'm higher than consensus with this week, and that's Caleb Williams.
The Cowboys were fine in week one against the Eagles passing attack.
In my opinion, the Eagles just didn't adjust well.
But we saw Dallas get absolutely lit up last week against Russell Wilson and the Giants.
It's early in the season, but they now rank second worst and adjusted passing yards allowed, and they're now the second best matchup on paper and adjusted fantasy points allowed.
The Bears Cowboys game has one of the highest totals in this week.
Slate Chicago has a twenty six point implied total.
The Bears defense has been really bad and they recently lost Jalen Johnson in the secondary.
We're likely looking at a back and forth contest and that's huge for Caleb Williams because he's giving us four scrambles per game and some production on the ground.
It's a great game to lean into this week.
Speaker 2CJ.
Speaker 1Stroud hasn't really gotten it done so far this year.
He scored eight point seven and fifteen standard points.
But something that's kind of interesting, giving this crappy offive line that he's playing behind, he's running a little bit more.
Stroud is averaging almost thirty rushing yards per game so far this year.
His scramble rate is eleven percent.
That's the same as Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels.
But Houston is Jacksonville this week.
It's an above average matchup for Stroud, and so far this year, Jacksonville hasn't been that incredible at pressuring the quarterback according to PFF data, So Stroud's not a terrible option, and you can stick with that same offense and go to Nick Chubb.
One thing we need to point out with Chubb is that even though he had a big reception against the Buccaneers on Monday Night, he's still not seeing a ton of receiving usage.
He saw nine percent target share in Week two, which is fine, but his roudshare was only thirty percent.
The good news that this game against Jacksonville, it's not a lock for Houston to see a negative game script, and Chubb handled eighty percent of Houston's running back rushes in Week two against a pretty average opponent.
I think he could come through with like RB three numbers.
Ramandre Stevenson needs to be on our radars after Trayvon Henderson's poor showing in Week two as well.
I talked about other on the fifteen Transaction Show, but Stevenson looked good and the peripherals were strong.
He had a fifty eight percent running back rush share and a twenty two percent target share.
Speaker 2New England gets Pittsburgh this week.
Speaker 1The Steelers defense has been kind of brutal to start the year, and they currently rank second worst and adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs this year.
They've also given up the third most adjusted points to the position.
We could easily see New England move back to Trayvon Henderson more this week.
I would imagine they do that versus what they did in Week two.
So there is some risk with Stevenson, but the matchup is absolutely there.
And then you guys know, I'm going to talk about Beashall Tuton.
It's early, but Houston his opponent this week.
They rank sixth and adjusted points allowed to running backs.
Touton himself saw a third of Jacksonville's running back rushes in Week two.
He end up scoring a touchdown on one of his two targets.
Now, let's just be objective.
His usage right now is not that great, but the hope is that it just came getting better and better as the season goes on.
He's been really efficient so far and hopefully the Jags reward him now, wide receiver Keenan Allen has been bawling out.
He's seen target shares of twenty nine percent twenty six percent over his first two games.
He's run a route on seventy eight percent of the Chargers dropbacks.
His slot rate this past week was roughly fifty four percent according to PFF.
That might come in handy against a Denver defense that saw Josh Dowens get some work against them this past week after pretty miserable Week one.
Regardless of that matchup, though, these peripherals are really strong.
He's an awesome target share.
He's in an offense that's featuring its wide receivers, and his Chargers offense has the highest pass rate over expected in the NFL through two games.
The fact that Allen is still viable in this tier is kind of crazy to me.
Now, moving on to tight end Kyle Pitts, he's kind of getting it done, you guys.
He's seen great route participation rates that start the year, and through two games, Pitts has target shairs of nineteen twenty four percent.
The Falcons get the Panthers this week, and for what it's worth, Carolina is currently the best matchup for tight ends by adjusted points allowed to start the year.
Speaker 2In twenty twenty.
Speaker 1Four, no team allowed more fantasy points to the tight end position, So it looks like a really good spot for Kyle Pitts.
I saw that Christian Gonzales is practicing for New England, which would be big news for that defense and bad news for the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers this week.
Now, I'd have Rogers as a sleeper if Gonzales is out.
The Steelers have a twenty three point imply team total.
New England has been the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks so far this year, and they've allowed eighty three passing yards per game over expected.
Speaker 2That's the most in the NFL.
Now.
Speaker 1Meanwhile, the Steelers have been pretty average and pass right over expected, and that was unexpected for a lot of people entering the year.
So this lines up pretty well for Aaron Rodgers only if Christian Gonzales is inactive.
Otherwise He's not as obvious as a streamer, but in this tier of players who are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, Daniel Jones has.
Speaker 2To be the go to streamer.
Speaker 1Just look at what he's done to start the season this matchup on paper against Tennessee isn't very scary, though I do think we should point out that it's Indy's first road game of the season.
Jones is playing great within the system though he's averaging over twenty six standard Fantasy points per game.
He's got three rushing touchdowns, and he's escaping the pocket, and he's running enough for a decent floor each week.
With the weapons around him, he should be able to come through.
Now, moving on to running back, we saw Rashad White with a boost in production this past week, and it came with a boost in usage too.
And week one, White had a twelve percent running back rush here.
In week two it was thirty seven percent.
His rout participation, though, was actually a little bit worse in week two.
The Buccaneers are heavy six and a half point home favorites against the Jets this week.
There's some clock grinding potential here, and in a game like this where it's against an AA team and they are big favorites, they may not want to run Bucky Irving into the ground.
So if you're in a pinch, Rashad White could work.
And Tyler Algier is kind of in a similar spot he's more of the classic grinded out running back.
But regardless, they get Carolina this week.
They're in Charlotte, but the Falcons they are still five and a half point favorites.
Carolina has technically been okay against running backs this year and adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they haven't from like a raw production standpoint.
They face Jacksonville and Arizona, and both teams running backs.
They were fine against them.
Those teams just also did well in their other games.
So the adjusted numbers think Carolina is decent against running backs.
Now, this isn't good for business.
But don't let my data fool you.
Speaker 2No, I mean, in all.
Speaker 1Seriousness, I'll cite adjusted numbers right now, but they're not the most predictive numbers in the world at all.
Carolina, though, was awful against running backs last year, and so far this season they've just been average.
If the positive game script hits for Atlanta, we could see more Tyler Algear.
He's actually seeing like forty three percent of Atlanta's running back rushes at the moment now in that same game, on that same team as Darnell Mooney.
The Falcons didn't throw the ball that much in Week two and maybe that happens again in Week three.
Given the probable game script, it's certainly possible.
But Mooney's return to action was really encouraging on the peripherals front.
He saw nineteen percent target share and he ran a route on every single one of Atlanta's dropbacks against Minnesota.
We know that he can get deep.
He was one of the best deep ball wide receivers in football last year.
All it takes is one big play for Darnell Mooney to pay off, and against the beatable Carolina secondary, I don't mind him this week.
Speaker 2Wandel Robinson went off last week.
Speaker 1Now, I don't think this seventeen yard a dot is repeatable and I highly doubt that we see that kind of performance again this year.
But he's seen twenty five percent target chairs in back to back weeks while playing that slot role for New York.
Now, I don't adore this matchup against Kansas City, and they've actually been a below act average matchup against the slot so far this year.
But a twenty five percent target share in this tier is not easy to find.
So Robinson has to be on your sleeper radar, and we've got a repeat sleeper at tight end Juwan Johnson.
I don't know what more people need to see from Johnson before picking him up, but his usage has now been elite in back to back weeks.
He's now seen a twenty six point seven percent target share in the season, with route participation rates of ninety six percent and ninety three percent.
I'll say what I said last week once again, it's Tray McBride like usage.
The Saints get the Seahawks this week, and I am a little bit nervous about how well New Orleans is actually gonna move the ball.
But for what it's worth, Seattle's been an okay matchup against tight ends to start the year, and at just the points allowed our two week sample, the peripherals are there and that's all that matters.
And I'm gonna shout out Harold Fannin again too.
I actually prefer him to David and Joku straight up this week because I think the matchup is there for fan and more.
And I mean, look, Fannin's now outscored in Joku in each of their first two games.
But we know Green Bay's defense is insane.
They can get to the quarterback Joe Flacco is probably gonna need to get the ball out quickly, and Fannin is more of that security blanket type.
Just look at his average up the targets through two games versus David and Joku's six point three to five point six versus Djoku's eight point zero and nine point eight.
Fanins seeing solid work, He's a high floor option.
Once again, we'll not look at players roster and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start with a fifteen transactions player in Sam Darnold.
Just strictly from a process standpoint, Darnald makes plenty of sense this week, even if it's kind of an ugly play.
The Seahawks have a top ten implied team total with over twenty four points.
They get a Saints defense has been pretty bad against quarterbacks to start the year, and Seattle's at home.
Now people are gonna worry about the Seahawks maybe just leaning on the run a whole lot this week, because they might hit a positive game script.
In order to hit that garbage time, the offense is gonna have to put points on the board.
The matchup is good for Darnold in Week three.
Now, if you want a deep play, how about Mac Jones.
We just saw him throw for three touchdowns against the Saints defense last week.
Now he gets Arizona.
The Cardinals are severely banged up in their secondary, so the forty nine ers might be able to take advantage of that matchup, especially now that Juwan Jennings is back.
So I think mac Jones does make some sense.
I've actually got another deep play for you, and it's only if Jaden Daniels doesn't go.
Marcus Mariota.
We saw Mariota in this offense last year.
He had two major appearances, one against Carolina when Jaden Daniels was knocked out early, and the other during the final week of the season where he led a comeback against the Cowboys.
In both games, we saw a lot of rushing from Mariota, which is what we love in fantasy.
The first game featured eleven rushes for thirty four yards.
The second, which wasn't close to a full game, he had five rushes for fifty six yards in a score.
He's a mobile quarterback who should at least provide a floor with his legs.
Now it's the Raiders and a pretty favorable matchup, and it's not like the team has the most reliable running backs to fall back on, so I could see Marcus Mariota with a usable week.
Now with running backs, let's go to Kyle Manungui, a very deep sleeper.
Last week's game script for Chicago was really, really weird, so it's hard to know exactly how they want to deploy those running backs.
But it wouldn't shock me if the Bears just changed things up in general this week offensively and defensively.
Maybe they get Luther Burden going a little bit more, Maybe they get Kyle Manunguy some more reps.
Dallas has been worse against the pass and the run to start the year, but they're still beatable on the ground.
Mnunguy did get more run this past week, and that blowout against Detroit he saw thirty seven percent of Chicago's running back rushes.
He's a very cheap way to get exposure to this high scoring game or potentially high scoring game.
And look, he's only playable, and like massively deep leagues, I get it.
You guys just ask for some deep plays.
So I'm gonna give you some of those deep plays.
And Chris Rodriguez is another one.
They get the Raiders this week, and what could end up being a positive game script for Washington, even if Jayden Daniels doesn't play, even if it's Marcus Mariota, but regardless, Rodriguez profiles as an early down running back who can steal some work, some work from Jacory Krosky merit.
Speaker 2And it wouldn't surprise me at all if.
Speaker 1Chris Rodriguez is their goal line back.
And if that's the case, maybe you luck into a touchdown with Rodriguez this week.
And for the record, the running backs under the twenty percent mark, they're always pretty bad.
If it sounds ugly, it's because it is ugly.
But I want to give you a variety of options at wide receiver.
Let's look at the Green Bay guys with Romeo Dobbs and Dontavian Wicks.
Now, I prefer Dobbs because we know he's gonna be out there in two wide receiver sets and he's had by far the best route participation on that team this year at wide receiver.
I definitely think that there's him fear with this game that the Packers don't need to be very pass heavy, but they also have a twenty five and a half point implied team total against Cleveland, And also we're not always going to be right about our game script predictions.
Who knows what happens, but both these players, Dobbs and Wicks, they could realistically hit a twenty percent target chair in this game, and that makes them viable now as a deeper sleeper.
I like Josh Palmer this week.
I like Keyon Coleman a Ton, but he didn't make the cutoff for players that I called out earlier.
He's rostering like eighty percent of leagues in general, and chances are that's gonna rise because of this matchup against Miami.
Palmer's really interesting though Miami's secondary has been horrible to start the year.
They've been especially horrible against throws down the field.
They've seen five twenty plus air yard throws against them this year.
They've allowed all five of those passes to be completed.
Of course, as a small sample.
We're working with small samples because we've only had two weeks of football.
But enter Josh Palmer.
He's been running around about seventy percent of Buffalo's dropbacks, which isn't like an amazing number, but he's seen twelve targets across his first two games, and he's seen average depth of targets of thirteen yards and twelve yards.
Those are pretty solid numbers.
He's getting down the field, so maybe he could benefit from that week secondary this week now, Troy Franklin is far less of a deep play compared to Josh Palmer, but he works this week.
The matchup isn't amazing on paper, but Franklin's coming off a game where he had a ninety percent route participation rate in a thirty percent target share.
If that continues in any way, he's definitely a viable sleeper each week.
Speaker 2Now.
Speaker 1Another deep option is Calvin Austen for his sake and the Steelers passing attack sake.
Like I talked about earlier, you have to hope Christian Gonzales does not play.
That's up in the air, though he's trending in the right direction.
If he's in, even if we'll probably see more DK Metcalf, it just makes that entire unit better.
But if he's out, New England's had one of the worst secondaries in football to start the year, and Calvin Austen is running a route on eighty five to ninety percent of Pittsburgh' dropbacks right now.
He's also been the one getting down the field for Pittsburgh and New England's top five and both deep ball rate allowed and completion percentage allowed on those deep passes.
It's a small sample size, but it is noteworthy.
So I like Austin if Gonzales is out.
If Gonzales is in, he's a much tougher player to trust.
Jalen Naylor was one decent JJ McCarthy throw away from a big day in Week two, and that would have been great for the brand because I called him out on this show last week.
Speaker 2Maybe things are gonna change with Carson Wentz.
Speaker 1They get a good match up against the Bengals, and Naylor's now seen target shairs of fifteen percent and twenty four percent in his two games played.
He's seen route participation rates of ninety six percent and one hundred percent, so he's running routes.
He'll be the number two guy more than likely four Minnesota, and it's a great matchup against a beatable defense.
So let's run it back with Jalen Naylor.
Now moving on to the defensive streamers, the Seahawks no longer work because they were added in a ton of leagues overnight, so we got to cross them off the list.
But I like Tampa Bay against the Jets, who have a lot, a lot of pressures to start the year.
I think Washington against Vegas makes sense after what we saw from Gino Smith and company on Monday night, and then Atlanta is not a bad option against Carolina.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
If you have subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't free it to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Thanks for listening to everyone.
I'll talk to you tomorrow morning with another Mailbag episode.