Episode Transcript
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It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten to nineteen of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
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It's a fifteen transactions day.
Let's get to it.
Add Romeo Dobbs and Dantavian wis So.
Jaden Reid has a broken collarbone.
He's going to be sidelined for some time, and as a result of that injury, we now have a clearer picture of this Green Bay Packers wide receiver rotation.
Romeo Dobbs is already running as a team's number one wide out, but this injury is gonna make Dontavian Wis a lot more relevant too.
He ended up running a round on sixty five percent of Green Bay's dropbacks on Thursday, and that was up from thirty nine percent in Week one.
Wicks saw twenty two percent target share.
Wix looks like he's more of the one to one replacement with Jayden Reid.
According to PFF, Wicks ran eighty six percent of his routes from the slot in Week two.
The other relevant green Bay wide receivers, they were below a fifty percent slot rate, each and every one of them.
Now, I would prefer Romeo Dobbs to Dantavian Wicks because we've seen the stability with him.
We know he's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets.
He's had about a seventy five percent routechare to start this season.
No other green Bay wide receivers really close to that, and without Jayden Reid in the mix, we could see a higher target share for Romeo Dobbs two, but Dontavian Wicks he's the player who's now going to see the biggest boost with where he was at from a snap standpoint.
And Guys, I've got a lot of people hitting me up asking about dropping Matthew Golden.
Don't drop Matthew Golden.
I know that he hasn't been that good to start the year.
His target share hasn't hit ten percent in a single game yet.
I understand you're frustrated, but we're talking about a first round rookie.
I know there were some warts to his analytical profile.
He wasn't a perfect prospect, But if you drafted Matthew Golden, now is definitely not the time to drop him.
The Packers just lost Jayden Reid.
You've got to be more patient, add Wandel Robinson.
Week two was definitely not a normal week for Wandell Robinson.
He had an average depth of target above ten yards just once last year.
On Sunday, he hid an a dot of sixteen point seven.
Combine that with a twenty five percent target share he went off he had twenty eight PPR points.
I highly doubt we're gonna see a performance like that again this season, the target depth was a huge outlier from his typical role, and Russell Wilson he cooked against Dallas.
But even still, Wandel Robinson has posted back to back games with a twenty five percent target chair and what if the Giants want to deploy Wandell Robinson more like that after seeing these results, then things would get really interesting.
So it can't hurt to add Robinson this week, even though yes, it does seem like we do this every single year with him.
Sell James Connor.
Now, look, this could be nothing, but it could also be something.
Trey Benson played a pretty significant role in the passing game for Arizona in Week two, and it did hurt James Connor's ceiling.
Connor saw a thirteen point eight percent target chair in Week one on a fifty five percent rowl participation rate, and games where Connor played at least half of Arizona snaps in twenty twenty four, he averaged a fifty five point five percent route rate that was right in line with what he saw in Week one.
Week two was different, though Connor played about fifty five percent of Arizona's offensive snaps that was lower than what he'd typically seen in twenty twenty four, he ran a route on only forty one percent of their dropbacks.
That's according to PFF.
Trey Benson ran more routes than James Connor in Week two and as a result, Benson had a twenty four percent target share James Connor four percent.
We've now seen Benson score eight and a half and eight point four PPR points across his two games a season.
He's accounted for about thirty nine percent of the total PPR points between himself and James Connor last season, and games where Benson played while Connor was at a fifty percent snapshare better, that slice of points was in Benson's favor at just an eighteen point six percent rate.
Basically, Trey Benson is scoring a higher percentage of this backfield's points and it's kind of working.
He's currently got a better success rate EPA per rush and rushing yards over expected per rush than James Connor.
I mean, guys, take a step back and think about this.
Would it be that weird if Trey Benson continues seeing this kind of workload.
He's in a backfield with an oft injured thirty year old running back.
Now Connor's coming off a usable performance against a bad defense.
He hasn't been bad to start the season, but at this moment you may still be able to get something significant for James Connor.
And in my opinion here in twenty twenty five, his ceiling looks capped.
Add Jerry McNichols and Chris Rodriguez.
So Austin Eckler's done for the year.
Let's all hope that he gets better.
Let's hope we see him on a football field again, but he tore his achilles this past Thursday against the Packers.
Many are gonna look at Bill Krosky Merritt as the fantasy football winner here, and he does have a little bit more upside now, but there's still a lot of problems.
The number one problem being his pass catching profile.
Krosskey merrit has had sub twenty percent route participation rates in each of his first two games, and that completely explains his three percent target share on the season.
He didn't have that much of a receiving backbone from college, so that's part of his game.
He's got to work on to be more reliable in fantasy football and to be more reliable for the Commanders.
Of course, but Austin Eckler was that dude for the Commanders.
He was their reliable pass catcher.
Now that's probably gonna be Jeremy McNichols.
He ended up running more routes than Krosskey Merritt in that Thursday night game, despite the fact that he entered the game late.
Now, the other running back that Washington's probably gonna deploy is Chris Rodriguez.
He's been a healthy scratch through the first two weeks of the year, but like Jacorey Krossky Merritt, Rodriguez doesn't come with a strong pass catching backbone.
He's more of a redundant piece to Krosskey Merrit.
That's why to me, Jerry McNichols is the preferred option off the waiver wire this week.
Between Chris Rodriguez and McNichols, we at least know McNichols has a specific role in this offense.
He has a chance to be valuable in PPR formats.
For Rodriguez, you're kind of hoping that he's going to carve out like a twenty five percent running back rush are and maybe see goal line work, and maybe that happens.
But even if it does, happen.
He's not gonna be the most reliable player in fantasy football because we've seen that they want to use Jacory Krosky merit, but in deeper formats you could go for Chris Rodriguez by Drake London.
So Drake London missed some practice last week with a shoulder injury, and while we have no idea if that played a role in his down performance in Week two, we can't totally roll it out either.
What we do know is that Drake London is a very good wide receiver and that's backed by numerous metrics, and that's backed by the eye test.
And Week two was the first time in five games with Michael Pennix as a starter that London failed to see eight targets.
Atlanta just didn't have to push things through the air against Minnesota because that Minnesota offense with JJ McCarthy was not good at all against Atlanta.
The Falcons finished Week two with only twenty one pass attempts.
That's half of where they were at in Week one.
London still had a respectable nineteen percent target share that would have yielded a lot more looks in any other game environment.
Better days, better game scripts are ahead Atlanta's next five games.
They shouldn't scare you at all.
They get the Panthers, Commanders, Bills forty nine ers in Dolphins, so I would expect Drake London to bounce back nicely, add Michael Pennix.
So if I'm going to talk about that schedule with Drake London, I've got to talk about his quarterback too, right now.
I did talk about this a little bit on last week's Mailbag episode.
I do like the schedule for Michael Pennox upcoming as well.
I know he wasn't good in Week two.
According to next Gen Stats.
He had a bottom five completion radar expected among Sunday's quarterbacks in Week two, and he only scored five point three standard Fantasy points against the Vikings.
That was a lot different versus Week one.
In Week one, he scored twenty four fantasy points.
He was more average and completion percentage over expected against the Buccaneers.
So basically, Pennix has given us one good performance, one not good performance.
At the very least this weekend.
I'm not overly concerned about this matchup against Carolina.
They've been pretty average as an opponent for quarterbacks to start the season by justin fantasy points allowed and the Falcons they've a pretty good twenty three and a half point applied total.
So if you need a streamer, Michael Pennix does work, and maybe, just maybe there's gonna be a long term solution here.
Add Troy Franklin.
So if any of you listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show this past week, then you know in the look Ahead waiver Wires section of that show, I talked about Troy Franklin.
And I'm not totally saying that to pat myself on the back.
I'm doing that more for self promotion purposes.
I want you guys to listen to that show.
You can find it live on YouTube every Friday at one pm Eastern.
That's YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF or every Saturday morning.
The audio from that show is gonna find its way to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast feed, so you might have seen it in the feed over the last couple of weeks.
Regardless, I talked about Troy Franklin last week, and then look at us.
Now, I'm like Paul Rudd looking back at you, saying look at us, look at us.
Who would have thought Who would have thought that I would be talking about Troy Franklin on this week's fifteen Transaction Show.
Franklin did indeed see a jump and route participation rate from week one to week two.
In Week one, he ran around on about sixty five percent of Denver's dropbacks.
In week two against the Colts, the number was eighty eight percent.
He's now seen target shares of sixteen percent and thirty percent.
In his two games this year, he scored eight point four and twenty four PPR points.
Now, look, this is a Sean Payton offense.
We know the things can change immediately because Sean Payton and Sean Payton that's how he operates.
Maybe next week it's gonna be Marvin Mims.
But at the very least, given these peripherals, Troy Franklin should be added.
Sell Travis Etn.
So at the moment, Travis Etn is very clearly Jacksonville's top running back.
He's seen a running back rush are this season of about sixty one percent.
He's got an eight point six percent target share, He's played sixty four percent of their offensive snaps.
With those peripherals.
Etn's posted games of eighteen point six and sixteen point nine PPR points.
He's been really, really solid, but I would see right now if you could sell ETN very very high because there are some things that are working against him.
Number One, his backfield share numbers are good, but they're not great.
Since twenty eleven, there have only been seventeen running backs who finished the season with a sub seventy percent running back rush share and a sub ten percent target share who ended up as top twelve running backs as RB once.
That means only about ten percent of PPR RB ones have numbers that are a little bit better than etns.
The second reason number two, I'm not sure that we should assume that these shares get better Baishall.
Tuton has looked electric on his limited touches this year, and we already saw Tutin immediately take Tank Bigsby's work.
In Week two, ETN actually saw a decline in running back rush share week over week.
And then number three, we should not ignore the matchups.
Jacksonville has now faced Carolina and Cincinnati.
No one should be surprised if those two teams end up being two of the worst teams against running backs this year.
For fantasy football purposes, Jacksonville's rest of season's schedule.
It's not gonna be against Carolina and Cincinnati every week.
Look, if you'd rather ride this out, I totally understand.
I don't think Travis Etn is gonna be a bad fantasy asset all of a sudden.
I'm just saying there are some negative here, and he's been performing very, very well.
You might be able to sell high.
Add Daniel Jones.
Daniel Jones is balling out.
He wasn't an easy start last week from a process standpoint against Denver, but look what he did.
He scored twenty two point eight standard fantasy points.
Prior to the Monday night football games, Jones rang second in fantasy points scored.
He's only trailing Lamar freaking Jackson.
We have to be honest here and realize that the Colts do have a good infrastructure.
I talked about that plenty this offseason.
I really like their pass catchers.
I really like what they have outside of quarterback.
But maybe I should like the quarterback too.
We know that Daniel Jones at the very least can get it done with his legs.
He's now scored three rushing touchdowns through two games.
He's averaging six and a half rush attempts per game.
And then on top of that, he's throwing the ball pretty well, and this Colts offense is giving him some easy looks.
They're really running this offense through Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren.
Those are two guys who can make a lot happen after the catch and just via the run.
I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what the Colts can do outside of Indianapolis.
But I think at this point you can't leave Daniel Jones on the waiver wire hold Travion Henderson.
So look, it's a week waiver wire week.
There's not a lot going on on the waiver wire, and I'm gonna get bombarded with questions about Travon Henderson.
So why not answer those questions right here, right now.
This is gonna sound like a lot of cope.
Okay, I love Travon Henderson entering the year, but I promise you that's not what this is.
Sometimes players have bad games, and sometimes those bad games come at really, really bad times.
In Week two, New England had this great match up against Miami.
Everyone should be able to move the ball against the Dolphins this year and it was no different for New England, except Henderson was not the one who was making plays Wheremondre Stevenson was.
Early in the second quarter of that game, Henderson was called for an offensive holding.
Okay, that's gonna happen at times.
But then it happened again early in the third quarter, and then it happened again later in the third quarter on a kick return.
Tray Von Henderson did not look good in pass pro when I went back and I watched that game, and pass protection was one of the things that he really thrived at coming out of Ohio State.
That's a problem.
Now, there was a third quarter play right after Henderson's final holding penalty.
The Patriots faced a third and three.
They were down by five points.
Drake May drops back to pass.
He throws a perfect ball to Ramandre Stevenson over Stevenson's shoulder, and Stevenson catches it down the sideline.
You could argue that was the play of the game for New England, and props to Stevenson for making a very hard catch.
Now, the coach Speak Index, who a lot of you guys probably follow on Twitter.
They actually tweeted a video of Mike Vrabel after the game In an interview, Vrabel spoke about that play and particular he said, quote, well, oddly enough, we had a similar play this week in practice, but it was with Travion.
And then Rabel added quote and it was really weird that now it was the same play.
But Remandre.
Now Stevenson didn't score on that play.
He gained fifty five yards.
And I'm gonna sit here, and the only cope I'm gonna give you, guys is that I think Henderson would have taken it to the house.
That's all I'm gonna say.
But look, in all reality, I'm not gonna sit here and make excuses and say, well, actually, well, actually, well actually, Henderson so far has been an l in fantasy football.
And I told you guys to draft Travion Henderson.
I also preach patience.
Patience is everything in fantasy football, especially with rookies.
It was very clear that Trayvon Henderson was in the doghouse in Week two.
Ramandre Stevenson did his part.
And that's very unfortunate for anyone who has Henderson in fantasy football.
Because Stevenson showed out.
He might get more opportunities now moving forward, But we have to recognize that this happened against one of the weakest defenses in all of football.
There's no telling what Trayvon Henderson would have been able to do with that kind of workload.
I don't think you can confidently play Trayvon Henderson in week three given his workload in week two.
Things are not trending in the right direction.
But guys, after two weeks, it is not the time to give up on rookies.
Some of them will bust.
Maybe this is just the trajectory of Trayvon Henderson.
We don't know.
The overall point here, though, is that things happen in football, things happen in fantasy football.
You can't extrapolate those things in one week and assume they're going to happen the rest of the season.
It's a very very important thing to understand early on in the season.
Ad Blake Korum.
So, look, we know Sean McVeigh loves him some Kiene Williams, but in week two that Rams backfield did look a little bit different.
Williams still saw a lot of work, but he saw a snap rate go from eighty one percent in week one to seventy percent in week two.
His running back rush share fell by seventeen percentage points and went to seventy seven percent, and Kyron Williams didn't see all the goal line looks either.
Again, all those numbers are still pretty good, but Blake Korum dug into Kien Williams work a little little bit in week two, and Korum, for all intents and purposes, he looked better than Kien Williams.
Specifically in that game, all five of Korum's runs were deemed successful by expected points added.
Williams had a thirty five percent success rate.
He had seventeen rushes.
Now after the game, Sean McVeigh he noted that the split between Williams and Korum was quote much more in alignment with how he wants the Rams backfield to look.
That quote was courtesy of Adam Gross, part of the LA Daily News Coreum more than likely is nothing more than a handcuff.
And I'd imagine if Williams goes down, it's not just going to be the Blake Koram show.
We'll probably see some Jarques Hunter as well.
But what if this becomes more of a split than we think.
We've got to be open minded when it comes to backfield splits, because it's a coaching decision at the end of the day, especially when Kyron Williams hasn't shown us a ton Outside of being able to carry a lot of volume in that backfield, he hasn't been the most efficient running back in the world over the last year plus.
So I think Korum, at least in deeper formats, is something that you could add this week.
Add Woody Marx.
Now this might be a repeat transaction from a couple of weeks ago, but we saw some movement in that Texans backfield on Monday Night against the Buccaneers, so we've got to talk about Woody Marks again.
Mars only played twelve percent of Houston's offensive snaps in Week one.
His route participation rate was nine percent.
In Week two, that backfield was mostly Nick Chubb and then Woody Marks and Darrea Gumbawale played a little bit too naps year for Marx, it rose to twenty seven percent from twelve percent.
In his route participation it jumped by almost twenty percentage points.
Woody Marx is not ready to find your fantasy lineup.
Don't take this the wrong way.
There just aren't that many options off the waiver wire this week, and I do think that he could see more and more work as the season goes on, so right now might be the perfect time to add him by Breece Hall.
So last week's higher variance by was Tyrone Tracy and that was a terrible, terrible call.
But that's why I did preface and say that it was high variants.
But let's try to not go two for two here.
In Week two, the Jets offense kind of looked like what we thought it was going to look like this year, and it resulted in bad fantasy performances across the board.
But we can still look at peripherals.
They show intent, and those peripherals really favored Breeze Hall.
Hall saw his running back rush heare rise from seventy percent to eighty three percent week over week.
He ran a route on forty eight percent of the Jets dropbacks.
That number was thirty two percent in week one.
His snaphare increased and his target shares through two games nineteen percent and fourteen percent.
If the Jets offense is just even average this year, if there may be just bottom five and pass attempts instead of like dead last or second to last, then Breshall has a legit shot to smash given these peripherals.
But that's the risk you've got to take because this offense does not look good on paper and we're not very optimistic about it.
He only scored five point eight PPR points in Week two, though, and his quarterback is now in concussion protocol.
He didn't score a touchdown in week one, so maybe his manager is ready to move on from him.
So if you want to take a chance, if you want to add more volatility to your lineup, I think Breeze Hall makes a lot of sense.
At the very least, I'm more by than sell with Breeze Hall ad Sam Darnold a lot of you're going to need quarterback this week because there's a lot of quarterback injuries across the league.
I think Daniel Jones is the safest option, and I don't mind Michael Pennix either, But don't sleep on Sam Darnald.
Through two weeks, Donald's comfortably in the top half of the league and completion percentage over expected, he's top ten and yards per attempt the Seahawks this week they get the Saints, They're at home.
Their total is north of twenty four points.
New Orleans just gave up three touchdown passes to Mac Jones, and early season numbers showed them as a top ten opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed.
So again, don't sleep on Sam Darnald.
Add the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.
I called out the Seahawks defense last week.
I don't want to call them out again.
Hopefully they're already on your roster.
They get New Orleans this week and they're big, big favorites.
You can use the Seahawks.
You should use the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay can work this week though.
The Jets are a run heavy team and that might not give opposing defense as a ton of opportunities to make fantasy relevant plays.
But the Bills were able to sack them four times in Week two, and I think this is kind of an attractive matchup regardless of who's under center for the Jets.
The Jets have a low implied team total in Tampa Bay is a six and a half point favorite, so if you can't get the Seahawks, you could look the Bucks way.
That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shirting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found a difference to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
Thanks for listening everyone.
I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Ten Trends episode.